| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250409：关税影响相对有限 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/9 指标 单位 今值 | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 9,950.00 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | -1.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 9,550.00 | | | 0.00% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 400.00 | | | -100.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 40.00 | | | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 42,405.00 | | | -1.99% | | 基差 元/吨 -2,405.00 元/吨 | | | 860.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,950.00 元/吨 10,000.00 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | -1.00% -0.99% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,900.00 | | | -1.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 10,15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be weak. The refined nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and there are many macro - negative factors, which will suppress the nickel price. The frequent adjustment of Indonesia's nickel industry policy and the withdrawal of long - position funds also increase market volatility [1]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak. The supply side is relatively loose, the demand side recovers slowly, and the raw material support for stainless - steel prices is limited. Under macro - negative factors, the non - ferrous metals as a whole are under heavy pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Market Data**: - On April 8, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai nickel futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the futures near - month contract was 119,280 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 261,743 hands (+457), and the open interest was 80,225 hands (-4,462). The LME 3 - month nickel closing price (electronic disk) was 14,150 US dollars/ton, down 214 US dollars from the previous day [1]. - The basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the closing price of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 2,470 yuan, down 1,490 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Supply - side Situation**: - Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports changed little, and port inventories were stable. In some major production areas in Indonesia, production was adjusted, with reduced production scheduling and a downward - adjustment expectation for metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to make losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: - Ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless - steel mills' production scheduling was stable and improving, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: - On April 7, the LME nickel inventory was 202,300 tons, up 1,908 tons from the previous day, with an increase rate of 0.95%. The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [1]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: - On April 8, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts showed a downward trend. The trading volume of the active contract was 187,931 hands (-23,316), and the open interest was 72,550 hands (-14,393). The basis between the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) and the active contract decreased by 40 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Supply - side Situation**: - Stainless - steel production scheduling decreased slightly [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: - Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: - The price of high - nickel pig iron declined, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: - The SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 705,800 tons, down 6,300 tons [1].

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Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon) [1] - Report Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side has contracted recently, but the demand side is also weak, with limited purchases. The silicon price remains weak, and it is expected to maintain a low - level consolidation in the short term, ranging from 9,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, due to macro - sentiment disturbances, the price has corrected, but the tariff factor has little impact. There is still room for inventory reduction during the rush - installation period, with short - term price support. The 2506 contract is recommended for long - position allocation on dips, and the 2511 contract can be short - position allocated in the long term [2] Summary by Directory 1. Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends**: From March 28 to April 3, the industrial silicon futures main - contract closing price decreased by 0.36%, while the polysilicon futures main - contract closing price remained unchanged. Among different grades of industrial silicon, the price of 421 in Tianjin Port decreased by 0.45%. Some organic silicon products' prices declined, such as DMC by 2.75%, 107 glue by 1.37%, and silicone oil by 2.49%. Some silicon wafer prices increased, like N - type 210mm by 1.94%, N - type 210R by 6.99%, and N - type 183mm by 5.79% [9] - **Industrial Silicon Price Trends**: The price of industrial silicon has been in a low - level consolidation state. The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in the East China region has shown little change [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply and Cost Analysis - **Cost Factors**: During the dry season, the electricity price in the southwest region is at a high level, increasing the production cost of silicon enterprises. The price of silicon stone has been weakly stable, with little improvement in procurement. The electrode price has been slightly adjusted upwards, with the graphite electrode price increasing by 450 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price of silicon coal has been generally stable with minor fluctuations, and the price of petroleum coke has remained stable [22][31][38] - **Profit Situation**: In February, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,445 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 188 yuan/ton, and the average profit of 421 was - 2,029 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 116 yuan/ton [43] - **Production and Supply**: In the week of April 3, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased, with the weekly open - furnace rate at 28.44%. The production in the north decreased, especially in Xinjiang where the number of open furnaces decreased by 9, and the production in the south increased slightly, such as in Yunnan and Sichuan [44] - **Market Transaction Price**: The market is weak, and the transaction prices of some grades of industrial silicon have declined [63] 3. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Production and Inventory**: In March, the polysilicon output was 9.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.49 million tons. As of April 6, the polysilicon inventory was 23.6 million tons, a month - on - month decline. In April, some silicon material factories planned to increase production capacity, but the overall increase was limited [76] - **Price and Market Outlook**: The supply and demand of silicon materials are balanced, and the price is running smoothly. The silicon wafer production is lower than expected, but the price has rebounded. The demand for battery cells is steadily released, and the price remains stable. The distributed rush - installation of components is coming to an end, and the price increase is weak [77][80][82] 4. Organic Silicon Market Analysis - **Production and Supply**: In March, the Chinese DMC start - up rate was 63.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94 percentage points, and the output was 18.79 million tons, a month - on - month decline. Most manufacturers maintained reduced - load production, and the subsequent start - up load may be further reduced by 5% [99] - **Price Trend**: The price increase of organic silicon has slowed down. As of April 3, the average price of DMC was 14,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%; the average price of 107 glue was 14,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%; and the average price of silicone oil was 15,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49% [105] 5. Aluminum Alloy Market Analysis - **Production Start - up**: In the week of April 3, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 56.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 percentage points [114] - **Price Trend**: The price of aluminum alloy has declined. As of April 3, the average price of ADC12 was 21,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period, and the average price of A356 was 21,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% [117] 6. Inventory Analysis - **Inventory Scale**: As of April 3, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 60.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 26.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts of the exchange were 70,468 lots, equivalent to 35.23 million tons of physical goods [129] - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table of industrial silicon from February 2023 to March 2024, showing the changes in production, import, export, consumption, and inventory during this period [130]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Lead) [1] - Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The downstream is affected by the off - season, with weak inventory preparation and light market trading. The supply side has both increases and decreases, and the fundamentals have insufficient support for lead prices. With the intensification of the US tariff policy on the macro - level, although the policy itself has little impact on the lead market, market risk - aversion sentiment has risen, and lead prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected that lead prices will be mainly sorted at a low level in the short term, with an operating range of 16,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 2.02% to 16,975 yuan/ton; the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 2.92% to 17,100 yuan/ton; the London lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 5.90% to 1,906 US dollars/ton [15] - **Basis**: Data on the basis, Shanghai lead spot premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, and the difference between consecutive contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [16][18][22][23] 2. Increases and Decreases Coexist, and Primary Lead Operation Fluctuates Slightly - **Refinery Situation**: Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat, with the domestic TC at 650 yuan/metal ton and the imported TC at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. The mine end was continuously in short supply, and there was no expectation of adjustment in market TC quotes. Refinery profits recovered, reaching 69 yuan/ton as of March 28 [31] - **Primary Lead Operating Rate**: The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 61.48%. In April, electrolytic lead maintenance and restart coexisted, and the output was expected to be the same as that in March. If lead prices continued to fall, refineries might cut production [32][37] - **Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters**: The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelters decreased from 49,525 tons in the week of March 28 to 46,995 tons this week due to factors such as refinery maintenance [40] 3. The Operation of Secondary Lead Recovers, but the Raw Material Problem Remains Unsolved - **Waste Battery Prices**: As of April 7, the average price of waste batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton month - on - month [48] - **Secondary Lead Profits**: As of April 3, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 422 yuan/ton [54] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: As of April 4, secondary lead raw material inventory was 17.91 tons, and finished product inventory was 10,440 tons. Refineries stocked up before the festival, but waste battery supplies were still tight, and downstream demand decreased during the festival, leading to inventory accumulation [58] - **Secondary Lead Operating Rate**: The secondary lead enterprise operating rate increased by 3.14 percentage points to 62.46%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 67,400 tons. Some refineries in Anhui increased their operation due to more raw material arrivals, while operations in Henan, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia were relatively stable [61] 4. The Off - Season Intensifies, and Battery Operation Declines - **Lead Battery Operating Rate**: The lead battery operating rate decreased by 3.65 percentage points to 70.21%. Affected by the off - season and rising prices of auxiliary materials such as antimony and tin, battery enterprises' production enthusiasm was low, and some enterprises chose to stop production or adjust their production plans [70] 5. Import and Export Profit Windows are Closed - **Export and Import Situation**: As of March 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of April 7, the import profit was - 117.59 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [79] 6. Social Inventory Decreases Slightly - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of April 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 70,000 tons, showing a decrease. The decline in primary lead enterprise operation and pre - festival inventory preparation by downstream enterprises led to a slight decrease in social inventory [89] - **SHFE and LME Inventories**: As of April 3, SHFE refined lead inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease month - on - month. As of March 21, LME inventory was 235,850 tons, showing an increase [92] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data on the monthly supply - demand balance of lead from January 2024 to February 2025 are presented, including primary lead output, secondary lead output, export volume, import volume, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [93]

| 贵金属日评20250408:中美之间互相关税征收或存升级,中国央行连续五个月增持黄金 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-03 | 2025-03-31 | 收盘价 | 718.18 | -11.62 | 739.04 | 729. 80 | -20. 86 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 559347.00 | 537550.00 | 21, 797.00 | 462428.00 | 96, 919. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 223123.00 | 191317.00 | 207567.00 | -16, 250. 00 | -31,806.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 15675.00 | 15675.00 | 0. 00 | 0.00 | 15675. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - In April 2025, the domestic supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be loose, and the price is likely to be hard to rise and easy to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 60,000 - 70,000 and the pressure level around 73,000 - 75,000 [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On April 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 70,800, 71,060, 71,280, and 71,280 yuan/ton respectively, down 2,160, 2,100, 2,180, and 2,180 yuan/ton compared with April 3. The trading volume was 154,107 lots, an increase of 72,390 lots compared with April 3, and the open interest was 179,831 lots, a decrease of 19,617 lots [1] - **Lithium Ore and Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of various lithium ores and lithium compounds such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium carbonate decreased to varying degrees on April 7 compared with April 3. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 72,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Battery Materials**: The average prices of some battery materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and phosphoric acid iron lithium also decreased. For example, the average price of phosphoric acid iron lithium (power type) was 33,267.5 yuan/ton, down 307.5 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - **Company Investment**: Huasheng Lithium plans to invest about 990 million yuan to build a "60,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate vinyl carbonate (NC) project" [1] - **Chilean Exports**: In March 2025, the export volume of Chilean lithium salt was 23,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 18%. The export volume to China was 16,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38% and a year - on - year increase of 39% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be loose. Some new production capacities are planned to be put into operation, and the inventory of SMM lithium carbonate has increased. The production volume of lithium hydroxide may increase, but the export volume may decrease [1] - **Demand**: The production (inventory) volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium in April may increase month - on - month. The production volume of some battery materials such as ternary precursors and ternary materials may also increase, but the export volume of some products may decrease [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 60,000 - 70,000 and the pressure level around 73,000 - 75,000 [1]

沪铜日评20250408：国内铜冶炼厂4月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会年存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-03 | 2025-03-27 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 73640 | 78860 | 81560 | -5, 220.00 | | | | 成交童(手) | 173467 | 114839 | 145937 | 58, 628. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 168034 | 187164 | 686 ISZ | -19, 130.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 116824 | 125960 | 137906 | -9, 136. 00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 74610 | 79150 | 81 282 | -4,540.00 | | | | 沪铜县差 | 970 | 290 | SE | 680.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2. Report's Core View - The macro - negative impact brought by tariffs persists, and the market remains highly uncertain. Although the current fundamentals of urea are relatively healthy, it is recommended to avoid the short - term macro - negative sentiment and wait for low - buying opportunities. The short - term strategy is to wait and see (view score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (closing prices) on April 7 compared to April 3: UR01 decreased from 1850 yuan/ton to 1816 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton (-1.84%); UR05 (Shandong) decreased from 1894 yuan/ton to 1862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton (-1.69%); UR09 decreased from 1852 yuan/ton to 1820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton (-1.73%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granular) on April 7 compared to April 3: Shanxi decreased from 1850 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.16%); Henan decreased from 1970 yuan/ton to 1930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.03%); Hebei decreased from 1930 yuan/ton to 1900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-1.55%); Northeast remained unchanged at 1950 yuan/ton; Jiangsu decreased from 1970 yuan/ton to 1950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.02%) [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from 56 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 decreased from - 44 yuan/ton to - 46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.4 Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 3000 yuan/ton and 2580 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton and 5800 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.5 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2505 was 1848 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1879 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1820 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1862 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1858 yuan/ton. The position of 2505 was 200,558 lots [1] 3.6 Trading Strategy - Short - term strategy is to wait and see due to the macro - negative sentiment [1]

| 期货近月合约 收盘价 119000.00 127420.00 131400.00 -8,420.00 | | | --- | --- | | 期货连二合约 收盘价 118770.00 127480.00 131780.00 -8,710.00 | | | 118910.00 127690.00 132040.00 -8,780.00 期货连三合约 收盘价 | | | 上海期镍 成交量（手） 261286.00 184999.00 249977.00 76,287.00 期货活跃合约 （元/吨） 持仓量（手） 84687.00 89599.00 106286.00 -4,912.00 | | | 27166.00 27371.00 26799.00 -205.00 库存（吨） | | | 沪镍近月-沪镍连一 360.00 90.00 -200.00 270.00 价差（近月与远月） -130.00 -150.00 -180.00 20.00 | | | 沪镍连一-沪镍连二 沪镍连二-沪镍连三 -140.00 -210.00 -260.00 70.00 | | | 基差（现货与期货） SMM 1#电解镍平均价 ...