Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current futures market is mainly driven by short - position holders taking profit. It is recommended to continue holding previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current urea valuation is relatively low, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate the industry's self - clearing. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, and the subsequent possible driving factors are the old device renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1640.00 yuan/ton on October 27, down 2.00 yuan (-0.12%) from October 24. UR05 closed at 1713.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan (-0.35%). UR09 closed at 1745.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - In Shandong, the price was 1610.00 yuan/ton on October 27, up 40.00 yuan (2.55%) from October 24. In Henan, it was 1590.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%). In Hebei, it was 1630.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.88%). In Jiangsu, it was 1610.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan (2.55%). Prices in Shanxi and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 103.00 yuan/ton on October 27, up 46.00 yuan from October 24. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 73.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5084.00 yuan/ton on October 27, up 34.00 yuan (0.67%) from October 24, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1647 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1655 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1640 yuan/ton with a settlement price of 1641 yuan/ton. The position volume was 281954 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options (Viewpoint score: 0) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Commodity Prices - The current price of crude oil is $577.63 per ton on October 27, 2025, with a previous price of $581.13, a decrease of 0.60% [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene is $766.00 per ton on October 27, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is $610.00 per ton on October 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia is $290.00 per ton on October 29, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain product is $4098.00 per ton on October 27, 2025, with a previous price of $4090.00, an increase of 0.20% [1] - The closing price of the nearby contract is $4000 per ton on October 2, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The market price of ethylene glycol in the East China region is $4190.00 per ton on October 27, 2025, with a previous price of $4180.00, an increase of 0.24% [1] - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts is $41.00 per ton on October 27, 2025, with a previous difference of $33.00, an increase of $8.00 [1] - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol is $81.00 per ton on October 27, 2025, with a previous price of $103.00, a decrease of $22.00 [1] - The price index of polyester is $8400.00 per ton on October 27, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester chips is $6750.00 per ton on October 27, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber is $6330.00 per ton on October 2, 2025, with a previous price of $6320.00, an increase of 0.16% [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips is $5740.00 per ton on October 27, 2025, with a previous price of $5700.00, an increase of 0.70% [1] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced from oil is 65.0% on October 27, 2025, compared with 56.23% previously, an increase of 2.68 percentage points [1] - The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced from coal is 61.1% on October 27, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The load rate of the PTA industry chain is 89.2% on October 2, 2025, compared with 88.93% previously, an increase of 0.10 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the textile machine industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA chain is 71.86% on October 27, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] Other Information - The price of ethylene glycol produced from foreign - sourced ethylene is $1312.1 per ton on October 2, 2025, compared with $1102.5 previously, a decrease of $210.0 [1] - The post - tax gross profit of a certain production method is $1533.27 per ton on October 27, 2025, compared with $1547.94 previously, a decrease of $14.67 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251028: Easing of China-US Economic and Trade Negotiations Supports Aluminum Prices [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The easing of China-US economic and trade negotiations supports aluminum prices [1] - Domestic alumina supply and demand is expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the decline in alumina prices [2] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously bullish due to expectations of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, the preliminary agreement reached in China-US economic and trade negotiations, and the decline in inventory [2] - The price of aluminum alloy may be cautiously bullish due to expectations of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, the preliminary agreement reached in China-US economic and trade negotiations, and the tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum [2] Group 4: Price and Market Data Alumina - The national average price of alumina decreased by 7.10 yuan/ton to 2881.03 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of alumina in various regions such as Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan decreased [2] - The Australian alumina FOB price remained unchanged at 319 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - The SMM A00 aluminum semi-average price increased by 50.00 yuan/ton to 21160 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of A00 aluminum in various regions such as Shenyang, Zhongyuan, and Tianjin showed different changes [2] - The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures increased by 135.00 yuan/ton to 21360 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy - The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) semi-average price increased by 50.00 yuan/ton to 22250 yuan/ton [2] - The futures closing price of cast aluminum alloy increased by 10.00 yuan/ton to 20715 yuan/ton [2] London Aluminum - The LME 3-month aluminum futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10947 (data for some days was N/A) [2] - The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread and 3 - 15 month contract spread showed different values (some data was N/A) [2] Price Ratios - The Shanghai-London aluminum price ratio was 7.4777, an increase of 0.05 [2] Group 5: Market Volume and Position Data Alumina - The trading volume was 251558 lots, and the open interest was 372484 lots [2] - The inventory was 223372 tons [2] Aluminum - The trading volume was 2686.00 lots, and the open interest was 311269 lots [2] - The inventory decreased by 402.00 tons to 66299 tons [2] Aluminum Alloy - The trading volume of cast aluminum alloy futures (active contract) was 3221 lots, and the open interest was 10124 lots [2] Group 6: Basis and Spread Data Alumina - The basis was 52.03 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months such as near-month - consecutive first, consecutive first - consecutive second showed different values [2] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum basis (spot - futures) was -85.00 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months such as Shanghai aluminum near - month - Shanghai aluminum consecutive first showed different values [2] Aluminum Alloy - The daily basis of cast aluminum alloy was -10.00 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months of cast aluminum alloy showed different values [2] Group 7: Trading Strategies Alumina - Wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, and pay attention to the support level around 2600 - 2800 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 (view score: 0) [2] Aluminum - Lay out long positions when the price falls back, and pay attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21500 - 22000; for London aluminum, pay attention to the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3000 (view score: 1) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Lay out long positions when the price falls back, or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level around 20000 - 20300 and the resistance level around 20800 - 21000 (view score: 1) [2]

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20251028:中美经贸谈判缓和或使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-27 | 收盘价 | 938. 10 | 934. 14 | 994. 06 | -3. 96 | -59. 92 | | | | | 成父童 | 386272. 00 | 370912.00 | 496445.00 | -110, 173.00 | 15, 360. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | -4. 998.00 | 180815.00 | 185813.00 | 205110.00 | -24, 295.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 86565.00 | 87015.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream. The improvement in the macro - environment and the cancellation of warehouse receipts drive the price up. However, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakening, downstream inventory replenishment is slowing down, and potential demand bottlenecks may emerge. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. [1] 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases ranging from 380 to 460 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 420 yuan/ton to 79,520 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on October 24 was 613,476 lots (+122,556), and the open interest was 431,174 lots (+12,027). [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate was 28,699 tons (-60). The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons, with smelters and downstream reducing inventory and other sectors increasing inventory. [1] - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 881 dollars/ton (+11), and the prices of various types of lithium mica also increased. [1] - **Product Prices**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and other lithium - related products generally increased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 600 yuan/ton to 75,400 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Industry News - In September, the year - on - year increase in domestic smartphone shipments was 10%, but the month - on - month decrease was 5%. The limited increase in the proportion of high - end models led to a slowdown in the growth of cobalt - acid lithium demand. In September, the operating rate of leading enterprises in the cobalt tetroxide market was adjusted, with increased supply but insufficient demand, affecting the upstream cobalt raw material market. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium ore raw materials rose. [1] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries also increased last week. In October, the production of energy - storage batteries increased. However, in September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average. [1] 3.4 Investment Strategy It is recommended to short at high levels in the short - term. [1]

Report Title - "Black Metal Weekly Report - Iron Ore" [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [3] Report Author - Bai Jing, with the industry qualification number F03097282 and investment consulting certificate number Z0018999 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - High basis restricts the downward momentum, and the iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 95 (756) - 105 (836) US dollars [6][10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusions - **Price Trends**: Last week, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore were consolidating. The prices of some varieties such as PB powder (+1), BRBF (+2), and Super Special powder (+2) increased slightly, while others like Carajás fines (-25) and PB lump (-3) decreased. As of October 24, the Platts 62% index closed at $105.15, down $0.15 week - on - week, equivalent to about 871 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.12. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 775 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton [7] - **Inventory Situation**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 15,109.49 tons, an increase of 148 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 501 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 937 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may increase in the next period [7] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipping**: The global iron ore shipping volume in this period was 33.884 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 548,000 tons. The shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 28.445 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.045 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 19.195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,000 tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 16.253 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 9.251 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.007 million tons [8] - **Arrival**: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 20.843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.92 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 20.291 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.903 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.959 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.073 million tons [8] - **Demand Side**: In this period, 4 blast furnaces were newly shut down for maintenance, and 6 blast furnaces resumed production, mainly in the Northeast, Hebei, and Shanxi regions. Due to environmental protection issues in Hebei, the supply of sinter decreased, and some steel mills reduced production. In addition, due to the continuous decline in finished product prices, the loss range of steel mills further expanded, and the profit rate dropped to the lowest level this year. From 12:00 on October 27, heavy pollution weather level - II emergency responses were launched in some cities in Hebei, and some steel mills in Tangshan extended the sintering machine production restriction time to the end of October, with blast furnaces shutting down 30% of their production capacity according to the production capacity [9] - **Conclusion**: From a fundamental perspective, the iron ore shipping volume continued to recover week - on - week and was at a seasonal high, while the arrival volume decreased significantly week - on - week. The iron ore output continued to decline slightly in this period, and it is expected to continue to decline during the environmental protection production restriction in Hebei from the 27th to the end of the month. After the production restriction is lifted, the output is expected to recover. In terms of valuation, the recent continuous contraction of the spot and futures profit per ton of steel has an impact on the raw material price fluctuation rhythm. The high basis restricts the decline range, and the market may show a volatile trend in the short term [10] Part 2: Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: As of October 24, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable product was PB powder with a converted warehouse receipt of about 809 yuan/ton [15] - **Iron Ore Inter - period Spread**: As of October 24, the spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 closed at 20.5 (- 0.5) [18] - **Iron Ore Premium Index**: As of October 23, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1285 (- 0.0155), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 17.75 (-) [28] - **Steel Mill Sintered Powder Inventory**: The inventory of imported sintered powder in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 0.03% week - on - week, and the inventory of domestic sintered powder decreased by 1.84% week - on - week. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 4.76% week - on - week [34] - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption**: The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.07% week - on - week, the daily consumption decreased by 0.30% week - on - week, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 1.39% week - on - week [37] - **Port Inventory & Berthing**: The total inventory at 45 ports, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, and trade ore inventory at ports showed certain trends. The berthing ship number at 47 ports also had corresponding changes [40] - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: The inventory of imported port lump ore increased by 7.82% week - on - week, the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3.97% week - on - week, the inventory of iron concentrate increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the inventory of coarse powder decreased by 1.20% week - on - week [43] - **Shipping Volume of Major Iron Ore Producers**: - **Australia**: The shipping volume from Australia to China increased by 8.82% week - on - week, and the total shipping volume from Australia increased by 3.32% week - on - week [59] - **Brazil**: The shipping volume from Brazil to the world increased by 1.45% week - on - week [64] - **Four Major Mines**: The shipping volume of Rio Tinto to China increased by 11.36% week - on - week, BHP Billiton decreased by 16.30% week - on - week, Vale increased by 5.91% week - on - week, and FMG increased by 30.33% week - on - week [65] - **Iron Ore Arrival**: The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 19.5% week - on - week, and the arrival volume at northern ports decreased by 8.9% week - on - week [72] - **Domestic Iron Ore Production**: The inventory of iron concentrate in mines decreased by 3.16% week - on - week, and the production increased by 0.15% week - on - week [77] - **Steel Mill Powder Consumption & Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.43% week - on - week, the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.44% week - on - week, the daily consumption of imported sintered powder increased by 3.22% week - on - week, and the daily consumption of domestic sintered powder decreased by 1.81% week - on - week [78] - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron output data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association showed certain trends, with different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [83] - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of different regions such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, and the world showed different trends [86] - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production outside China had corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [90]

第一部分 结论 第二部分 供需基本面 黑色金属周报-钢材 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 2025年10月27日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL:010-82292661 目录 1 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 本周国内钢材现货价格小幅波动，截至周六，华东上海螺纹3170元（-）；上海热卷3290元， （+20）。 五大品种钢材整体产量增8.37万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降1.27吨，社库降26.14吨。表观 需892.73万吨，环比增17.32万吨。截至10月24日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现金含税成本 3143元，点对点利润27元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润47元左右。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本 在3294元左右，谷电成本在3151.5左右，华东螺纹平电利润-174元左右，谷电利润-31元。 废钢端，截止10月23日，张家港废钢价格2140元/吨，环比持平。数据显示，89家独立电弧炉 企业产能利用率33.2%，环比下降1.2个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗51.4万吨，环比下降0.94万吨； 其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗24.9万吨/天，环比下降0. ...

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Copper [1] Report Core View - Sino-US economic and trade negotiation easing and expected tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Fed, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline, and pay attention to support and pressure levels for different copper contracts [2][3]. Group 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai copper is negative and at a relatively low level, while the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. Due to high copper prices suppressing downstream demand and leading to mainly rigid - demand purchases, but considering the Fed's future interest rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction expectations, continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, and more maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in October, investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the basis of Shanghai copper [9]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range, and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the continuous accumulation of overseas electrolytic copper inventory, but with an increase in the expected number of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper [10]. - The spread between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range; the spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper, and between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is positive and basically within a reasonable range, while the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range. This is because the inventory of COMEX copper is at a high level and still accumulating, and future South American electrolytic copper may still be transported to the US [12]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [14]. - The closure of the import window may limit the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas compared with last week, an increase in China's social inventory of electrolytic copper, and a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange [19]. - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month. Both non - commercial long and short positions increased, as did commercial long and short positions [22]. Group 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports decreased compared with last week. The large - scale wet ore spill accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the copper and gold production in 2026 by about 35% compared with pre - accident estimates, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic copper concentrates in October. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative and decreased compared with last week, and the port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume in the world (China) increased (decreased, decreased) compared with last week [27][29]. - The positive spread between refined and scrap copper in China may boost the economy of scrap copper. Due to restrictions on the export of high - quality scrap copper in Europe, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, and a positive spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper, the production (import) of domestic scrap copper in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [30][32]. - The 1st smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China decreased month - on - month, and the rough - smelting maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in October may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic crude copper in October [33]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's scrap - produced anode plates decreased compared with last week, and the processing fees for anode plates also decreased [35][37]. - The production (import) of China's electrolytic copper in October may decrease month - on - month. Although some new domestic projects are under construction, domestic production may decrease in October. Overseas, due to maintenance and project construction progress, the import volume may also decrease [38][40]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased (increased) compared with last week. The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China decreased, leading to a decrease (increase) in the capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises also decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate (production, import, export) of domestic copper product enterprises in October decreased (decreased, decreased, decreased) month - on - month [44][46]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in October may increase month - on - month due to stable orders in the automotive wiring harness and expected release of construction and power grid orders [57][64]. - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in October may increase month - on - month because of stable orders in new energy and transformers, and a warming expectation in the home appliance demand, although high copper prices suppress new orders [61][64]. - The weekly processing fees for China's brass plate and strip decreased, and the capacity utilization rate (production) of copper plate and strip samples decreased (decreased) compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased (increased). However, the capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip in October may increase month - on - month due to good demand in new energy vehicles, power, and high - end electronics despite weak demand in home appliances and photovoltaics [66][74]. - The processing fees for China's lithium - ion (HTE) copper foil remained flat (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil in October may increase month - on - month because of a significant increase in the demand for HVLP ultra - low profile copper foil in the AI field, saturating the orders of many copper foil enterprises [68][74]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube samples increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in October may decrease month - on - month due to the slow recovery of demand in the refrigeration industry and weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [76][83]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod samples increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. However, the capacity utilization rate of brass rods in October may decrease month - on - month due to the slow recovery of demand in the refrigeration industry and weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [78][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is to sell high, with an operating range of 71,000 - 85,000. Supply expectations are volatile, but actual production continues to grow. After the price increase, downstream purchasing is weak, inventory - building slows down, and power demand may peak. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited [5][89] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 4.96%. Trading volume reached 1.85 million lots (+440,000), and open interest reached 431,200 lots (+272,200). The basis was at a discount of 4,120 yuan/ton [6][9] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In September, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,800 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%; lithium mica production was 8,150 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 9.2%. Lithium concentrate imports reached 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China rose to 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [13][17][21] Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [25] Carbonate Lithium - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. In September, lithium carbonate imports dropped to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [30][32] Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the output was 27,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%. In September, lithium hydroxide exports were 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [39] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 86,303 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In October, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 329,270 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 58% [42] Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary material production was 17,766 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [43] Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the output was 90,540 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In September, exports increased slightly [52] Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In October, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the output was 12,124 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 69%, and the output was 12,880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 72% [53] Electrolyte - In October, electrolyte production was 200,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 30%. In September, exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [61] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In September, power battery production was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. Power battery installation volume was 76 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.4% [64] New Energy Vehicles - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. Sales were 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [67] Energy Storage - In October, energy - storage battery production was 53.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 40.1%. In September, the energy - storage winning bid power scale was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [72] Consumer Electronics - In September, China's smartphone production was 122.75 million units, a month - on - month increase of 22.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. China's micro - computer production was 30.98 million units, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [75] 1.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices rose. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 35 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 115 yuan/ton [80] 1.6 Inventory - Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons. Structurally, smelter inventory decreased by 602 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 2,460 tons, and other inventory increased by 770 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory increased by 1,529 tons, and ternary material inventory increased by 629 tons [85][86] 1.7 Market Outlook - The strategy is to sell high, with an operating range of 71,000 - 85,000. Supply expectations are volatile, but actual production continues to grow. After the price increase, downstream purchasing is weak, inventory - building slows down, and power demand may peak. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited [89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the easing of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations support tin prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, along with the initial agreement in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, suggest that the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may not change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to build long positions after price pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to high tin prices suppressing downstream demand with only rigid procurement. Given the Fed's future policies and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, investors are advised to focus on short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai tin basis. For LME tin, the positive (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are in a reasonable range, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - Shanghai tin basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range. LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [9][10]. - The inventory of refined tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin on the London Metal Exchange increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines. The production (import) volume of domestic tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [19][21][24]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in China increased compared to last week. The production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in October increased (decreased) month - on - month, and the import volume may increase month - on - month [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in October. The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in October may decrease (decrease) month - on - month [35][38]. - The production volume of tin - plated sheets in China in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China increased compared to last week [41][43][46].