| | | 甲醇日评20250915: 低位震荡,关注低多机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/9/12 2025/9/11 | | | | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2379.00 | 2387.00 | -8.00 | -0.34% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2390.00 | -5.00 | -0.21% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2230.00 | 2213.00 | 17.00 | 0.77% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2277.50 | 2282.50 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2385.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2272.50 | 2285.00 | -12.50 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic and international macro - optimistic expectations and partial refining tin capacity maintenance support tin prices. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the decline in domestic tin ingot social inventory may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels [3][4]. - For spreads and inventory, due to factors such as the weakening employment supply - demand in the US and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin, as well as the spreads of LME tin contracts, are within a reasonable range, and investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased compared with last week [10][11][15]. - In terms of supply, the domestic tin ore supply is expected to be tight, the production of recycled tin in September may decrease month - on - month, the production capacity utilization rate of refined tin has declined, and the import volume of refined tin may decrease month - on - month [21][25][30]. - In terms of demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tin solder may increase month - on - month, the import volume of solder strips may decrease month - on - month while the export volume may increase, and the production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets may all decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries has slightly decreased [36][37][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin are negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10][11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has increased, the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [21]. - The second beneficiation plant of the Uis mine in Namibia has been commissioned, and tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are resuming production. Alphamin Resources' tin mine in Congo is also resuming production in stages. These factors may lead to an increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [23]. - The production of recycled tin in China in September may decrease month - on - month [25]. - The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat). Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment, resulting in a decrease in the production of refined tin in China in September and an increase in inventory [29]. - The export volume of Indonesia in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in the import volume and a decrease in the export volume of refined tin in China in September [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to an increase in the production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in the inventory of tin solder in China in September [36]. - The import volume of solder strips in China in September may decrease month - on - month, while the export volume may increase [37]. - The production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets in China in September may all decrease month - on - month [42]. - The production capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has slightly decreased compared with last week [45].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250915：高位整理 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 单位 今值 | 变动 近期趋势 | 2025/9/15 | | 元/吨 9,000.00 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 0.00% | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,745.00 | 0.06% | 工业硅期现价格 | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 元/吨 255.00 | -5.00 | | | 元/千克 50.05 N型多晶硅料 | 0.00% | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 53,610.00 | -0.19% | 多晶硅期现价格 | | 基差 元/吨 -3,560.00 | 100.00 | | | 元/吨 9,000.00 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 9,050.00 | 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 8,900.00 | 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 元/吨 9,000.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol price is currently in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - buying opportunities. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventories and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises, the low current spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, MA01 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.83%); MA05 closed at 2390 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%); MA09 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton (-2.30%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in Shaanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.47%), while prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged. Prices in other regions such as Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia decreased to varying degrees [1] - **Price Difference**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 12.50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Cost and Profit Situation - **Cost**: Coal spot prices in Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing also remained unchanged. The cost of coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged [1] - **Profit**: Methanol profits, including coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol, remained unchanged. However, the profits of Northwest MTO decreased by 82.80 yuan/ton (-636.92%), and the profits of East China MTO decreased by 34.50 yuan/ton (-6.54%). Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.60%), the profit of MTBE remained unchanged, and the profit of a certain product (possibly mis - written as "開發") increased by 10 yuan/ton (3.49%) [1] 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated weakly, opening at 2404 yuan/ton, closing at 2387 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 493,157 lots and an open interest of 775,400, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing positions [1] - **Foreign Information**: For non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - future, the reference negotiation range is +0.6 - 1%, and a few people are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of transaction dynamics. For other Middle - East regions' methanol shipments arriving in the near - far future, the reference negotiation is at +0 - 0.5%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5% [1] 3.4 Long - Short Logic - **Downward Pressure**: High port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland area suppress the upward space of methanol prices, and the short - term upward drive is limited [1] - **Upward Potential**: The current low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3.5 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, and the view score is 0 [1]

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20250912: 美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-10 | 收盘价 | 830. 78 | 15. 18 | 833. 42 | -2. 64 | 815. 60 | | | | | 成交重 | 165360.00 | 183319.00 | -132, 497. 00 | 297857.00 | -17, 959. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 114423.00 | 119424.00 | 132985.00 | -18.562.00 | -5.001.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 50151.00 | 43335.00 | 6. 8 ...

分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com [原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 9 月 12 日 下跌空间或有限 风险提示：美联储议息会议，俄乌局势变动。 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《原油周报 20250228：短期支撑有效， 减产底继续面临考验》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报20250711：短期矛盾不凸显， 油价波动率回归》 《原油 8 月展望：宏观与需求支撑转弱， 8 月注意下行压力》 《原油周报 20250822：短期或延续降波 震荡行情》 《原油周报 20250829：暂时观望》 《原油 9 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fed's September rate - cut expectation has risen, and the traditional consumption peak season has led to an initial improvement in new orders for enameled copper wire, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, down 9,691 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, up 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, up 902 tons; the Shanghai copper basis was 45, up 90 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9719, up slightly [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.671, up 0.1; the total inventory was 309,834, up 2,138 [2] 2. Important Information - As of September 11, the weekly inventory of copper in mainstream regions in China decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons. Due to delivery demand, the in - transit inventory reached a record high. SMM expects that with continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, copper inventory will increase slightly [2] - In 2025, the investment of the State Grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. Stable orders from the State Grid will provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry, offsetting the weak demand from downstream industries such as construction [2] 3. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Freeport's Indonesian mine had an accident and suspended mining, and there were disruptions in copper mine production at home and abroad. The China copper concentrate import index was negative but higher than last week, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates, and a decline in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increased month - on - month [2] - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wire showed an initial month - on - month improvement, but high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased slightly compared with last week, but delivery demand increased the in - transit inventory; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased [2] 4. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For lead, the market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals. The tight raw materials and weak demand are in a game. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and positive domestic sentiment, lead prices may run strongly within a range [1]. - For zinc, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak. However, the low LME zinc inventory overseas, continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3, and high capital concentration lead to an upward - oscillating trend of London zinc, which boosts Shanghai zinc. Affected by the interest rate cut expectation, Shanghai zinc may be strongly sorted in the short term, but the upside space is expected to be limited due to the fundamental suppression [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On September 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 41,772 hands, down 7.82%; the position was 49,603 hands, down 1.71% [1]. - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,996.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.48%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.46, up 0.15% [1]. News and Events - In late August 2025, Shekou Customs seized 26.5 tons of undeclared hazardous goods lead - acid batteries in the freight export channel [1]. - On September 10, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 44.17 US dollars/ton, and the position increased by 1,064 hands to 157,455 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead has slightly declined. In the secondary lead sector, the operation enthusiasm of refineries has weakened, and the scope of production cuts and suspensions has expanded [1]. - The terminal market has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not been reflected. Dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to try long positions with a light position [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On September 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 22,250 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 93,321 hands, up 11.46%; the position was 100,442 hands, down 2.53% [1]. - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,905.00 US dollars/ton, up 0.61%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.66, down 0.45% [1]. News and Events - As of September 11, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 154,200 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons compared with September 4 and 2,100 tons compared with September 8 [1]. - On September 10, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 23.01 US dollars/ton, and the position increased by 1,496 hands to 201,219 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee has been rising. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index increased to 96.25 US dollars/dry ton [1]. - The refinery's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend. Affected by the off - season and environmental protection restrictions in the north, the operation of some downstream enterprises has weakened, and the enthusiasm for purchasing zinc ingots is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being and short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating lower due to strong supply and weak demand, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips in the future. Considering both valuation and drivers, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, with about 20% of urea facilities over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising given the easing of China-India relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On September 11, the closing prices of UR01 in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were 1671 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, and 1660 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.12%, -1.28%, and -0.60% compared to September 10. The closing prices of UR05 and UR09 were 1719 yuan/ton and 1595 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00% and -1.12% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: On September 11, the spot prices in Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu were 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1650 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Hebei decreased by 2.34% compared to September 10, while the prices in Northeast China and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -59 yuan/ton on September 11, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to September 10. The 01 - 05 spread was -48 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: On September 11, the anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi were 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi decreased by 2.22% compared to September 10, while the price in Henan remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with the price in Shandong decreasing by 0.33% compared to September 10 and the price in Jiangsu remaining unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 292643 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market's supply is increasing steadily, with some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang resuming production and the southwest region's enterprises increasing their operations due to lower power costs. The demand side is mixed, with polysilicon enterprises reducing production but some having复产 plans, organic silicon facing supply and demand changes, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises buying on - demand. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall if polysilicon enterprises cut production [1]. - The polysilicon market has a slightly increasing supply with some new capacity and reduced production offsetting each other. The demand has increased with more transactions and lower inventory, but the terminal demand pressure and component price resistance may lead to a reverse price transmission. The polysilicon price is in high - level consolidation, and the upward pressure on the spot price is large [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 0.56% to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) increased by 1.06% to 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract's closing price rose by 0.87% to 8,740 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: With the rising silicon price, some silicon plants in Xinjiang resumed production, and the southwest region's enterprises increased operations due to lower power costs during the wet season [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, but some have复产 plans; an organic silicon plant had an accident and stopped production, but monomer plants are recovering; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises buy on - demand [1]. Investment Strategy - The industrial silicon price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall if polysilicon enterprises cut production. The trading strategy is to operate in a range, try to go long on dips, and consider the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage [1]. Polysilicon Price Changes - N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged. The futures main contract's closing price rose by 1.56% to 53,710 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some new capacity may be put into use, with an expected slight increase in production [1]. - Demand: The trading volume increased, inventory decreased, but the terminal demand pressure and component price resistance may lead to reverse price transmission [1]. Investment Strategy - The polysilicon price is in high - level consolidation, and the upward pressure on the spot price is large. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. The sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [1]. - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of new energy on - grid electricity prices. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new energy projects will enter the power market [1].