Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250915: Limited Rebound Space [1] - Core Viewpoint: The Fed's increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory reduction pressure, with a limited rebound in nickel prices; stainless steel has a loose fundamental situation but cost - side support, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Data Futures Market - On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 121,800 yuan/ton, 121,980 yuan/ton, 122,160 yuan/ton, and 122,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,750 yuan, 1,360 yuan, 1,370 yuan, and 1,350 yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel futures contract was 145,101 lots (+57,563), and the open interest was 72,640 lots (-9,051) [2] Spot Market - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of nickel beans was 124,200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,350 yuan [2] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures was 22,111 tons; the total inventory of SMM Chinese port nickel ore was 874 (in 10,000 wet tons), a decrease compared to the previous day; the total SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory was 3,700 tons, a decrease compared to the previous day; the SMM pure nickel social inventory was 39,470 tons, an increase compared to the previous day [2] International Market - On September 12, 2025, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,275 US dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,150 US dollars/ton, and the on - site closing price was 15,150 US dollars/ton; the trading volume was 5,064 lots [2] Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Data Futures Market - On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 12,800 yuan/ton, 12,860 yuan/ton, 12,950 yuan/ton, and 12,985 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0 yuan, 65 yuan, 80 yuan, and 70 yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless - steel futures contract was 153,413 lots, and the open interest was 126,286 lots (-2,058) [2] Spot Market - The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13,700 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day; the average price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) was 12,725 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 9,6949 tons (-605); the 300 - series social inventory last week was 96,300 tons (-15,400) [2] Group 4: Industry News - On September 12, an Indonesian law - enforcement team seized a 148 - hectare nickel - mining area in Weda Bay and a 172.8 - hectare mining area of PT Tonia Mitra Sejahtera in Southeast Sulawesi Province due to the lack of proper forestry licenses [2] Group 5: Market Logic and Strategies Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel - ore arrival volume decreased, and port inventory increased; nickel - iron plant loss margins narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September, and nickel - iron destocking; domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [2] - **Demand**: Ternary - material production decreased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [2] Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production increased in September [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [2] - **Cost**: High - nickel pig - iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, and Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials have led the market to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Geopolitical risks such as the Russia - related conflicts are difficult to resolve, and central banks of many countries around the world are continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai gold futures active contract: Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 12 was 834.22 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 170,217.00 and an open interest of 109,267.00. The inventory was 52,950.00 (in ten - gram units) [1] - Spot Shanghai gold T + D: Closing price was 830.34 yuan/gram, trading volume was 36,270.00, and open interest was 206,336.00 [1] - COMEX gold futures active contract: Closing price was 3,680.70 dollars/ounce, trading volume was 147,566.00, and open interest was 385,713.00. The inventory was 38,914,490.82 (in troy ounces) [1] - London gold spot: Closing price was 3,546.30 dollars/ounce [1] - SPDR gold ETF holding: 974.80 tons, with a change of - 3.15 tons [1] - iShare gold ETF holding: 457.86 tons [1] - **Silver**: - Shanghai silver futures active contract: Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 12 was 10,035.00 yuan/ten - gram, trading volume was 301,985.00, and open interest was 219,328.00. The inventory was 1,240,187.00 (in ten - gram units) [1] - Spot Shanghai silver T + D: Closing price was 9,772.00 yuan/ten - gram, trading volume was 304,080.00, and open interest was - 78,720.00 [1] - COMEX silver futures active contract: Closing price was 41.32 dollars/ounce, trading volume was 66,072.00, and open interest was 133,690.00. The inventory was 527,423,229.52 (in troy ounces) [1] - London silver spot: Closing price was 42.26 dollars/ounce [1] - E - iShare silver ETF holding: 15,230.57 tons [1] - Canada PSLV silver ETF holding: 6,129.64 tons [1] 2. Price Ratios and Spreads - **Gold**: - Spread between near - month and far - month contracts: For Shanghai gold, it was 1.72; for COMEX gold, it was 2.50 [1] - Basis (spot - futures): For Shanghai gold, it was - 3.88; for COMEX gold, it was 14.25 [1] - **Silver**: - Spread between near - month and far - month contracts: For Shanghai silver, it was - 75.00; for COMEX silver, it was - 0.02 [1] - Basis (spot - futures): For Shanghai silver, it was - 15.00; for COMEX silver, it was - 0.35 [1] 3. Other Market Data - **Commodities**: - INE crude oil: Closing price was 475.30 yuan/barrel [1] - ICE Brent crude oil: Closing price was 66.31 dollars/barrel [1] - NYMEX crude oil: Closing price was 62.24 dollars/barrel [1] - Shanghai copper futures: Closing price was 81,060.00 yuan/ton [1] - LME copper spot: Closing price was 10,067.50 dollars/ton [1] - Shanghai rebar: Closing price was 3,127.00 yuan/ton [1] - Dalian iron ore: Closing price was 799.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: - SHIBOR: 1.37% and 1.66% [1] - US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield: 4.0100% [1] - US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield: 1.7900% [1] - 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation: 2.3600% [1] - **Exchange Rates**: - US dollar index: 97.5299 [1] - US dollar - RMB central parity rate: 7.1019 [1] - Euro - RMB central parity rate: 8.3326 [1] - **Stock Indices**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3,875.3094 [1] - S&P 500: 6,584.2900 [1] - UK FTSE 100: 9,283.2900 [1] - France CAC40: 7,825.2400 [1] - Germany DAX: 23,770.3300 [1] - Nikkei 225: 44,768.1200 [1] - South Korea Composite Index: 3,344.2000 [1] 4. Important Information - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis again because the Democrats demand to add the subsidy extension of the Affordable Care Act to the government appropriation bill. If the subsidy expires, the medical insurance premiums of about 22.4 million Americans will rise significantly, causing political backlash [1] - It is the "central bank super - week", and major central banks such as the Fed, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions [1] 5. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly set up long positions when the price drops. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,650 - 3,750 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 850 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 39 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 41 - 43 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ten - gram [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead price is expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels in the short term, but the limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [1]. - The Shanghai zinc is expected to be sorted strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to the suppression of fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On September 15, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,040 yuan/ton, up 0.83% [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 63,429 lots, up 51.85%; the open interest was 52,188 lots, up 5.21% [1]. - The LME inventory was 229,575 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 59,485 tons, down 0.42% [1]. Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the weekly operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 66.68%, a week-on-week increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 22.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises was 72.14%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 percentage points [1]. - On September 11th, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.99 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 158,239 lots, an increase of 784 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The import of lead concentrates has no incremental expectation, and the processing fee is likely to rise but difficult to fall, but it has not had a substantial impact on the refinery's operation. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has fluctuated slightly [1]. - In the secondary lead sector, the lead price has been consolidating. Due to raw materials and losses, the refineries' enthusiasm for operation has weakened, the scope of production cuts and suspensions has further expanded, and the current operation rate is less than 30%. Some enterprises purchase from peers to fulfill long - term orders, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales. After the lead price broke through the 17,000 - yuan mark last Friday, downstream buyers were afraid of rising prices, and the purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On September 15, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,160 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,305 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 103,603 lots, up 11.02%; the open interest was 97,697 lots, down 2.73% [1]. - The LME inventory was 50,525 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 45,905 tons, up 2.18% [1]. Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 56.06%, a week-on-week increase of 5.98 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 53.99%, a week-on-week increase of 2.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 57.21%, a week-on-week increase of 2.71 percentage points [1]. - As of September 12th, the total inventory of SMM zinc concentrates at major ports in China was 44.55 million tons, an increase of 1.66 million tons from the previous week, and the inventory at Lianyungang Port increased significantly [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Last week, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates was flat week-on-week at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased week-on-week to 98.75 US dollars/dry ton. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic ores have a strong advantage, and refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. The domestic TC in September may have limited upside [1]. - On the supply side, refineries' profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output increase trend is obvious [1]. - On the demand side, as the impact of the military parade and the SCO Summit fades, the operation of downstream enterprises has rebounded significantly, and demand has improved. In addition, as the Shanghai - London price ratio continues to deteriorate, the zinc ingot export window may open [1].

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The game in the steel market intensifies, and the market will continue to fluctuate. After the military parade, the supply pressure quickly rebounds due to the recovery of production. The current supply - demand gap remains at a relatively high level, lacking the impetus for a rebound. After the contraction of ton - steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down, and the raw material varieties are significantly differentiated. In the short term, it is still mainly about squeezing profits, and the difficulty of unilateral operation increases. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations, and cautious operation is recommended [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price - As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] Production - As of September 11, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 3.41 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 6.75 tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10.9 tons. The 247 - steel - enterprise blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.2% on September 12, up 5.12% from September 5, and the daily average molten iron output was 240.6 tons, up 5.12% [7][12][42] Inventory - As of September 11, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.5 tons, and the social inventory increased by 17.41 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 166.63 tons (-4.71), the social inventory was 487.23 tons (+18.57), and the total inventory was 653.86 tons (+13.86). The hot - rolled coil factory inventory increased by 0.9 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1.92 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.02 tons [7][12][72] Demand - The apparent demand for five major steel products was 843.33 tons, up 15.5 tons week - on - week. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 326.16 tons, up 20.8 tons week - on - week [7][75] Scrap Steel - As of September 11, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 35.1%, up 1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.7 tons, up 0.62 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.5 tons, down 2.04 tons (a 4% decrease), and the scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 428.5 tons, down 14.07 tons (a 3.2% decrease) [8] 2. Macroeconomic Data Steel Output - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons (a 1.7% decrease) compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons (a 2.3% decrease) compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] Financial Data - In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016 [20] PMI - The PMI in August 2025 was 49.4% [23] Investment Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [26] Real Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%, the newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%, and the completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [29] 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar remained at a high level this week [39]

研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 有色金属周报-锌 短期支撑稳固 2025年9月15日 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美国通胀数据升温，就业数据疲软，市场强化美联 | | | | | 储9月降息预期，有色上方压力减弱。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。考虑内外比值持续走差，进口矿 | | | | | 亏损明显，贸易商观望情绪较重，国产矿抢购热度，部分 | | | | | 的地区国产TC报价下调，进口TC则稳步上行，CZSPT小 | 沪锌基本面维持供强需弱的累库 | | | | 组四季度进口加工费定价为120-140美元/干吨。后续来看， | 格局，但随着下游开工回升，及 | | | | 矿企对国产TC持续上调意愿较低，加之高性价比下炼厂 | 国庆假期前的常规备库预期，需 | | | | 多采购国产矿，北方部分炼厂已提前开启冬储备库，后续 | 求端有望好转，累库速度趋缓。 | | | | TC调涨压力较大。 | 此外 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the recovery of downstream demand support aluminum prices. The prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy are affected by different supply - demand and cost factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each [2]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Alumina - **Price Trends**: The national average price of alumina on September 12, 2025, was 3077.47 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to previous days. The closing price of alumina futures was 2914 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The volume, open interest, and inventory also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: Guinea's rainy season and bauxite production fluctuations led to rising prices of domestic and imported bauxite. China's alumina production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory of alumina in Chinese alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants and the daily inventory of alumina in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Although the operating capacity of alumina is high and the supply - demand is expected to be loose, the rising cost of bauxite limits the downward space of alumina prices [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Gradually layout long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 2800 - 2900 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Trends**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum on September 12, 2025, was 21020 yuan/ton, showing an increase. The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures was 21120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 205 yuan/ton. There were also changes in volume, open interest, and inventory [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is high due to good production profits, but the expected new replacement capacity is limited. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the daily inventory of LME electrolytic aluminum, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions of China decreased. On the demand side, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season led to an increase in the operating capacity of most downstream aluminum processing industries [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly layout long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 20400 - 20700 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2500 - 2600 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 for LME aluminum [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price Trends**: The average price of SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) on September 12, 2025, was 22100 yuan/ton, showing an increase. The closing price of the active contract of cast aluminum alloy futures was 20645 yuan/ton, with an increase of 170 yuan/ton. There were also changes in volume and open interest [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: The daily full - cost production cost of China's recycled aluminum alloy IDC12 is 20380 yuan/ton, and the profit is positive, resulting in an increase in the production capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy. The social inventory of aluminum alloy, the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Ningbo, Wuxi, and Foshan, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased. The domestic scrap aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tight, the production cost of recycled aluminum alloy is rising, but the profit is decreasing [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on aluminum alloy at low prices in the short - term or try to go short on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy at high prices. Pay attention to the support level around 20000 - 20200 and the resistance level around 20500 - 21000 [2]. Overseas Aluminum Market - **Price Trends**: The closing price of LME 3 - month aluminum futures on September 12, 2025, was 10067.5 US dollars/ton, showing an increase. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread of LME aluminum futures was - 61.54, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32 [2]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of Shanghai - London aluminum prices was 7.8193 [2]

| 1.9月12日消息:印尼矿业部官员Ralke Jeffi Huwae表示,印尼一支执法小组泼收了韦达河148公顷(366英亩)的银矿产区,原 | | | --- | --- | | 国是该矿场表获得相应的林业许可证,韦达湾躲矿区拥有合法的采矿许可证。这一举措是政府针对非法开采自然资源行为 | | | 资讯 | 所采取的更广泛打击行动的一部分。总检察署的一位高级检察官Febrie Adransvah表示,该执法小组还查封了苏拉威西省东南 | | 部PT Tonia Mitra Sejahtera公司的一处172.8公顷的矿区。他说,这类420万公顷被认定为缺少适当的林业许可证的矿区的一部分 | | | 。(文华财经) | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | 9月12日,沪辖主力合约低开高走,成交量为145101手(+57563),持仓量为72640手(-9051),伦铁涨1.59%。现货市场成交 | | | 一般,甚差升水扩大。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到浩量减少,港口库存累序:铁铁厂亏损幅度收窄,9月国内排产 | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去停;9月国内史解像排产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元裤 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, and Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials have led the market to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points consecutively in September, October, and December. Combined with geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data Summary **Gold** - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 4.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 36,270 and a position of 206,336. The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts was 1.72, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.88 [1]. - International Gold: The closing price of the COMEX active futures contract was 3,680.70, with a trading volume of 147,566 and a position of 385,713. The London gold spot price was 3,546.30 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF held 974.80 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF held 457.86 tons [1]. **Silver** - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9,772.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 304,080 and a position of - 78,720. The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 75.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 15.00 [1]. - International Silver: The closing price of the COMEX active futures contract was 41.32, with a trading volume of 66,072 and a position of 133,690. The London silver spot price was 42.26 dollars/ounce. The US iShare - Silver ETF held 15,230.57 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF held 6,129.64 tons [1]. Important Information - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis again due to the Democrats' demand to include the subsidy extension of the Affordable Care Act in the government appropriation bill. If the subsidy expires, the medical insurance premiums of about 22.4 million Americans will rise significantly [1]. - The "Central Bank Super Week" is coming, and major central banks such as the Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions [1]. Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,650 - 3,750. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 39 and the resistance level around 41 - 43. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,000 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,500 [1].

| 碳酸锂日评20250915:偏弱震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) 2025-09-12 2025-09-11 2025-09-05 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | 近月合约 收盘价 71180.00 71020.00 73880.00 160.00 | | | | 收盘价 71020.00 70860.00 74100.00 160.00 5 连一合约 | | | | 连二合约 收盘价 71360.00 71300.00 74260.00 60.00 5 | | | | 3 连三合约 收盘价 71360.00 71300.00 74300.00 60.00 | | | | 收盘价 71160.00 71000.00 160.00 3 74260.00 | | | | 砖酸包期货 成交堂(手) 410989.00 426041.00 802006.00 -15,052.00 ~ 活跃合约 | | | | (元/吨) 持仓堂(手) 309402.00 323456.00 364002.00 -14,054.00 | | | | 库存(吨) 38625.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, the urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic considering the eased China - India relations. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog Urea Futures Price - UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% - UR05 closed at 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% - UR09 closed at 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - In Shandong, it was 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Henan, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% - In Hebei, it was 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Northeast China, it was 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Jiangsu, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Basis and Spread - The spread between Shandong spot and UR was - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 - The 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1] Upstream Cost - The anthracite price in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 880 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Downstream Price - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2550 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Shandong was 5100 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 300,585 lots [1] Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices (View score: 0) [1]