Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. There are concerns about supply - demand imbalances in the market, with factors like OPEC+增产, device maintenance, and changes in production and sales affecting the prices and market trends of these products [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Crude Oil and Naphtha**: On September 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.41 per barrel, up 1.81%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.63 per barrel, up 1.59%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% [1] - **PX Prices**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $803 per ton, down 0.66%. CZCE PX contracts also showed a decline, with the main - contract closing price at 6530 yuan/ton, down 0.94% [1] - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4556 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4470 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [1] - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5718 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5710 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [1] Operating Conditions - For the PX industry, the operating rate on September 23, 2025, was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value. The PTA factory load rate was 79.38%, up 2.56 percentage points [1] - The load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 89.00%, 74.19%, and 67.55% respectively. The production - sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased [1] Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, and Iraq and the Kurdish region have reached a preliminary agreement to restart the oil pipeline. The expected increase in crude oil supply of 230,000 barrels per day has intensified concerns about supply over - capacity. The global supply - surplus expectation for PX is strengthening, and its cost support is insufficient. There is an obvious increase in PX supply due to short - process capacity expansion and postponed device maintenance, while demand has decreased due to delayed new PTA device production and multiple PTA device maintenance [2] - **PTA**: With insufficient cost support, the TA2601 contract closed at 4556 yuan/ton. The global supply - surplus expectation is strengthening, and PTA operating conditions are a mix of start - up and load reduction. The market's bearish sentiment dominates, and the production and sales of polyester products are mediocre [2] - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures are weakly volatile. The supply side has sufficient market supply, and downstream terminals are replenishing stocks at low prices, with a fair trading atmosphere [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - On September 23, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. In the spot market, low - price transactions were acceptable, and the basis premium decreased. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite remained flat on the cost side. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production increased last week, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials also increased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium manganate increased, while the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In the terminal market, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, and social inventory decreased. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, the inventory pressure of upstream is not large, and the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakened. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking cycle and the deadline for Jiangxi's mining end to submit reserve reports. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Futures Market**: On September 23, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 497,857 hands (+101,212), and the open interest was 255,907 hands (-15,717). The inventory was 39,449 tons (+540). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) decreased by 240 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various lithium products such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide remained mostly unchanged, while the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium increased by 500 yuan/ton to 57,500 yuan/ton. The average prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials also increased [1]. - **Inventory**: The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons last week. The inventory of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory increased [1]. Industry News - **Chile**: Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to extend the contract of the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA until 2030 and a new mineral lease contract with Codelco and Minera Tarapacá SoA from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Flat in northern Chile this year, marking the first large - scale entry into lithium production in the region [1]. - **China**: On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Tuhai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation in Xinjiang. The project has a total investment of 4.6 billion yuan, and after full - scale production, it can process 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate and produce 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate increased. The supply of lead is expected to be tightened in the short - term, with the production of primary lead fluctuating slightly and the production of recycled lead decreasing. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. - **Zinc**: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate decreased slightly compared to July but increased year - on - year. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 100.07% to 48,758 lots, and the open interest increased by 133.09% to 63,941 lots. The LME inventory was 219,975 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6.19% to 41,610 tons [1]. - **Import and Export**: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 134,800 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.23% and a year - on - year increase of 15.22%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 reached 927,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 28.18%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in August was 18.1577 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.14%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 152 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.93% [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: The supply of lead concentrate is not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly, and the production of recycled lead decreases. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,810 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, down 1.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.81% to 125,331 lots, and the open interest increased by 7.63% to 140,372 lots. The LME inventory was 45,775 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.83% to 56,613 tons [1]. - **Import and Project News**: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 30.06%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. The Baijiuchang Mine of Shandong Zhaojin Group and Mengzi Mining Company resumed production, with an expected output of 250,000 - 300,000 tons in the second half of the year and an increase in comprehensive output value of 25% [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: The raw material inventory of zinc smelters is sufficient, and processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Temporarily hold off on trading [1]. - **Zinc**: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests a trading strategy of "关注逢低做多机会" (pay attention to buying opportunities on dips), which implies a relatively positive view on potential long - term opportunities in the methanol market [1]. 2) Core View The methanol market has been experiencing weak and volatile trends recently due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which have suppressed the spot price. The port inventory increased last week, intensifying the inventory pressure. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. But considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also relatively small, the room for further decline is limited. With the arrival of the peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, the report recommends waiting and paying attention to subsequent buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2348.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/22 to 2343.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/23, a decrease of 0.21%; MA05 decreased from 2376.00 yuan/ton to 2375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%; MA09 increased from 2333.00 yuan/ton to 2337.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In most regions, spot prices showed a downward trend. For example, in Hubei, the price dropped from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.52%. However, in Guangdong, the price increased from 2250.00 yuan/ton to 2255.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Some coal prices increased slightly, such as the price of Ordos Q5500 coal, which rose from 530.00 yuan/ton to 535.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%. Most natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 407.40 yuan/ton to 394.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%; natural gas - based methanol profit decreased from - 362.00 yuan/ton to - 422.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 16.57% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Some downstream products' profits increased, such as MTBE, whose profit increased from 376.68 yuan/ton to 408.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.44%. However, some remained unchanged, like formaldehyde [1]. c) Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2339 yuan/ton, closed at 2343 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 465051 lots and an open interest of 967432, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Due to technical failures, a 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country reduced its load to 50%, and another 1.65 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. It is estimated that the loading volume at the port will decrease from late September to the end of the month [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned urea plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 23, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1658 yuan/ton, 1713 yuan/ton, and 1734 yuan/ton respectively. The UR01 decreased by 2 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) compared to September 22, while UR05 and UR09 remained unchanged. Among domestic spot prices, prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, 0.60%, and 0.61% respectively, while prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 103 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton, 880 yuan/ton, and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan and Shandong remained unchanged at 2520 yuan/ton and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5017 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1655 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1664 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1658 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1658 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to potential supply - side disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market has strengthened recently. Short - term silicon prices are expected to remain high, but there is a risk of a price drop if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts and silicon enterprises increase production [1]. - For polysilicon, supply - side disturbances are still fluctuating, and polysilicon prices are consolidating at a high level. Given the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, which may put pressure on the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed 0.28% lower at 8,925 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some previously - shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production as silicon prices rise. The southwest region has entered the wet season with low electricity costs, and enterprise production is steadily increasing. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some have plans to resume production; the organic silicon market has supply pressure again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed [1]. - **Export and Import Data**: In August 2025, industrial silicon exports were 7.66 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase and an 18% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, cumulative exports were 49.14 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, imports were 0.13 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 0.67 tons, a 67% year - on - year decrease [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use interval operations, continue to hold out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse spreads [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained flat. The futures main contract closed 1.43% lower at 50,260 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some may have new production capacity. The market trading volume has increased significantly, inventory has decreased, and price increases are spreading downstream, but terminal demand pressure is high, and component price increases face resistance [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]. Other Information - **Photovoltaic Glass Export**: In August 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports were 46.61 tons, an 11.86% increase from July and a 33.74% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, total exports were 298.10 tons, a 16.49% year - on - year increase [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a negative view on PX, PTA, and PR, with a view score of -1 for each [3]. 2. Core View - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 22, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, and PX all declined. For example, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic and index prices of PTA, decreased. The CCFEI price index of PTA's outer - plate dropped 1.29% to $610 per ton on September 19 [1]. - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts mostly declined, while the domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads also decreased [1]. - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main and near - month contracts declined. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets decreased [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, and slices all declined [2]. Spread and Basis - The near - far month spread of PTA increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 71 yuan/ton. The basis of PX increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The basis of PR in the East China market decreased by 14 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and in the South China market increased by 6 yuan/ton to 84 yuan/ton [1]. Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 85.57%. The PTA factory's load rate decreased by 1.43 percentage points to 76.82%, while the polyester factory, bottle - chip factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rates remained unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament increased by 14.44 percentage points to 57.68%, the sales rate of polyester short - fiber decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 48.81%, and the sales rate of polyester slices increased by 11.62 percentage points to 64.30% [1]. Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2]. Important News and Logic - **PX**: Trump called on European countries to stop buying Russian oil, but without new positive news, oil prices were weak. The cost of PX was weak due to the weak oil market, and the de - stocking prospect was not as expected, with a bearish sentiment in the market. The increase in PX supply and the decrease in demand affected the supply - demand situation and market sentiment, and short - term benefits would be under pressure [2]. - **PTA**: The cost support was insufficient as crude oil did not recover the previous day's decline. PTA supply was sufficient, and the downstream polyester filament sales were average. The market confidence was insufficient, and the inventory removal of the industrial chain was not smooth [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. The supply of bottle - chips was sufficient, and the downstream terminal had a certain demand for replenishment [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: On September 22, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose and then fell, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel price dropped by 0.46%. The spot market had fair transactions, and the basis premium widened. With supply stagnant and nickel ore prices flat, port inventories increased last week. Nickel pig iron plants' losses narrowed. In September, domestic production increased in both nickel pig iron and electrolytic nickel, while export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory changes and the fact that the Fed's rate cut has been implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On September 22, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. In September, stainless - steel production is set to increase. Terminal demand is weak, but the cost side is supported by stable high - nickel pig iron prices and rising high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Despite the loose fundamentals, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and limited inventory pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121,400 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 121,730 yuan/ton, and 121,920 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 100 yuan/ton, + 660 yuan/ton, - 190 yuan/ton, and - 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 66,099 lots (+ 3,446), and the open interest was 45,068 lots (- 5,353) [2]. - The LME 3 - month nickel's official spot price was 15,460 dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 dollars/ton (- 70 dollars/ton), and the trading volume was 4,024 lots (- 650) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price (basis) was 1,300 yuan/ton (+ 50) [2]. - The prices of nickel ore from the Philippines with different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8% CIF) remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of nickel pig iron with different nickel contents (1.5 - 1.7%, 8 - 12%) were stable, while the battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons [2]. - The LME nickel registered inventory was 218,454 tons, and the total inventory increased by 456 tons to 228,444 tons [2]. - The SMM China port nickel ore total inventory increased by 180,000 wet tons to 9.71 million wet tons last week [2]. - The SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased, with the total inventory at 3,100 tons (- 600) [2]. - The SMM pure nickel social inventory increased to 41,484 tons [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,995 yuan/ton respectively, with various changes compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless - steel contract was 138,615 lots (+ 21,690), and the open interest was 130,017 lots (- 1,168) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis (304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract) was 940 yuan/ton (- 50) [2]. - The prices of different types of stainless - steel products (304, 316L) in Wuxi and Foshan showed some fluctuations [2]. - **Inventory**: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless - steel inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons [2]. - The 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory was 593,400 tons (- 2,900) last week [2]. - The total stainless - steel spot inventory decreased by 13,500 tons to 880,700 tons [2]. Trade and Policy Information - In August 2025, China's unwrought nickel imports were 24,268.4 tons, a 36.11% decrease from the previous month but a 172.34% increase year - on - year. Norway was the largest import source, with imports of 12,020.2 tons (a 391.89% increase from the previous month and a 1745.85% increase year - on - year), and Russia was the second - largest source, with imports of 5,128.53 tons (a 71.10% decrease from the previous month and a 2.17% decrease year - on - year) [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: Short on rallies [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and a comprehensive operating rate close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic under the background of improved China - India relations. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 1.00 yuan (-0.06%) from September 19 [1]. - UR05: 1713.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 9.00 yuan (-0.52%) from September 19 [1]. - UR09: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.57%) from September 19 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Shanxi: 1500.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.66%) from September 19 [1]. - Henan: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Hebei: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.19%) from September 19 [1]. - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1630.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.21%) from September 19 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: -93.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 11.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: -53.00 yuan/ton on September 22, up 8.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Melamine Prices - Shandong: 5017.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 66.00 yuan (-1.30%) from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On September 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not significant. The expected supply contraction has weakened, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to be vigilant about the downstream restocking node and the deadline for Jiangxi mining to submit a reserve report. The trading strategy is to recommend waiting and seeing. [1] Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On September 22, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with September 19, with decreases of 560, 540, 560, and 560 respectively. The trading volume was 396,645 lots (+26,286), and the open interest was 271,624 lots (-9,640). [1] Spot Market - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton compared with September 19. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 80 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, while the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,909 tons (-575), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 137,531 tons (-981). [1] Import Data - In August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,469.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.79% and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. Chile was the largest import source, and Argentina was the second - largest. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. On the demand side, last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In terms of terminal demand, in August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September. [1]