Report Information - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Rubber Weekly - Weak Demand Drags Down Rubber Prices" [2] - Date: 20251109 [2] - Analyst: Li Zhaofeng [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to decline and needs to stabilize. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts are favorable for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be watched out for [4]. - The long - term supply cycle is shifting, which boosts valuation, but supply is elastic. The current year's natural rubber production areas have better weather conditions than last year, and the supply is expected to be stable, with a projected 0.5% increase in global production and a 10% increase in China's imports [4]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. Qingdao's dry rubber inventory has recently increased due to concentrated shipping schedules, and there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [4]. - Demand has been over - drawn by export rush and replacement demand. The real estate market shows no signs of improvement, and new vehicle and export demand are also weakening. Without strong policy support or inflation, demand will likely drag down the market [4]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on ru and short on nr, and to pay attention to the supply volume during the peak production season [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - Natural rubber spot prices have weakened, with only a limited rebound from the previous low and still at a low level. Synthetic rubber prices have hit a new low for the year, deviating from the trends of natural rubber and crude oil [6]. - The ru basis is at a multi - year high, and the monthly spread has strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions [12]. - The ru 1 - 9 monthly spread has weakened to - 125 but is still stronger than last year. The nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around - 35 and has weakened. The br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around 75 and has limited rebound momentum [17]. - The spread between spot whole latex and 20 - grade rubber has rebounded slightly from a low level, and synthetic rubber Br has weakened significantly compared to natural rubber [22]. Raw Material Prices - Thai raw material prices have stabilized marginally, and the weak spread between glue and cup lump suggests stable supply. Currently, the global market is in the peak production season with slightly more rainfall [27]. - Domestic raw material prices show that the absolute price of old whole latex has returned to the key range before last year's rally but is still at a medium level in recent years, and production incentives are still acceptable [10]. Processing Profits - Recent processing profits have declined again [32]. Inventory - Qingdao's dry rubber inventory increased in the latest week mainly due to concentrated shipping schedules. The overall current inventory is not high, but there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [37]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. The nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a multi - year high in the third quarter of last year and are still at a multi - year low [47][53]. - The synthetic rubber inventory is neutral. The in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber rebounded after reaching a two - year low, and the trader inventory dropped to a low level [56]. - The inventory of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires has decreased marginally [59]. Supply Side - According to ANRPC, the global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.95 million tons in 2025 [63][65]. - China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [68]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to factors such as EU eudr diversion, overseas inventory replenishment, and reduced arbitrage demand. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August 2025, imports were 664,000 tons, a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed down marginally [71]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - demand surplus has arrived, and the suppression of yield by production capacity has disappeared. The production capacity of natural rubber has reached an inflection point, providing a more solid bottom support, but production is affected by various factors such as weather, pests, and profit margins [81]. Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tires has remained stable and is at a medium level in recent years, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires is neutral [89]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire outer - tube production was about 1.5%, with a marginal slight decline and a significantly slower growth rate compared to last year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire export volume was about 5.4%, which is relatively good but also lower than last year [93]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase compared to the same period last year. The large - scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the long - term demand for heavy - trucks [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales have performed well due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are generally weak, and trade protectionism may further affect the market [102]. - Overall overseas automobile sales are mediocre, and trade wars have disrupted the consumption rhythm [105]. - The real estate market data from January to September 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for the market to reverse [120]. - Road freight volume has been stable but is still lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and the substitution effect of railway and waterway transportation [124].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices down 2.9% and non-food prices up 0.9%. The average CPI from January to October decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The average PPI from January to October decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [4]. - China's gold reserves at the end of October 2025 were 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 300,000 ounces from the end of August, showing a continuous increase for 12 months. The scale of foreign exchange reserves at the end of October was US$3.3433 trillion, an increase of US$470 million from the end of September, with a growth rate of 0.14% [4]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The operating income was 102.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [5]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year-on-year growth rates from Q2 2023 to Q3 2025 were 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively. Different industries showed varying growth trends during this period [7]. - The contributions of different industries to the GDP growth rate also changed over time. For example, the contribution of the primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry to the constant-price GDP year-on-year growth rate and the pull effect on GDP showed different trends from 2013 to 2025 [13]. Industry - The year-on-year growth rates of added value in different industries showed fluctuations. For example, the coal mining and washing industry, oil and gas extraction industry, and other industries had different growth rates from August 2024 to September 2025 [22]. - The output of major industrial products also showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil, coal, steel, and other products changed from September 2024 to September 2025 [24]. - In September 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The electricity consumption of different industries also showed different growth trends [31]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Different industries had different profit growth rates, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline [5][35]. - As of the end of September 2025, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. The inventory turnover days were 20.2 days, an increase of 0.2 days compared to the same period last year [5]. Price Index - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices having a significant impact on the CPI decline. Different CPI sub-items showed different year-on-year and month-on-month changes [4][49]. - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing. Different industries' PPI also showed different trends, with production materials prices generally declining more than living materials prices [56]. - The purchase price of industrial producers also showed different trends, with some categories such as fuel and power showing a decline, while others such as non-ferrous metal materials and wires showing an increase [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market is in a phase of shock digestion, but the medium - term shock - climbing pattern remains unchanged. The market has entered an event vacuum period after short - term positive events, but the positive logic still exists. With the increase in incremental funds and the stabilization of listed company performance, the medium - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions in the medium - term and add positions opportunistically, and buy call options on the options [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Viewpoints Market Performance - Last week, the broader market rebounded after hitting a low, with most of the four major indices rising slightly, and the large - cap stock indices performed well. In terms of style indices, the cycle and stable style indices had the largest increases, followed by the financial style index, while the consumer index declined slightly. Among Shenwan industries, most industries rose, with cyclical sectors such as electrical equipment, coal, steel, and chemical leading the gains, and industries such as computer, pharmaceutical biology, automobile, and food and beverage leading the losses [4][13][15]. Economic Data - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The National Day holiday may have had an impact. Both supply and demand in the manufacturing PMI contracted in October, with production falling by 2.2% and new orders by 0.9%, and both ex - factory prices and raw material purchase prices continued to decline by 0.7%. The medium - and long - term credit growth rate has continued to decline to 6.30% as of September 2025, after rising from the low point in August 2022 and reaching the high point in May 2023 [4][26]. Policy - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, boosting the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and lowered interest rates, and reduced the interest rates of existing mortgages. The CSRC proposed measures such as mergers and acquisitions and market value management to increase market activity. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market each year [4]. Performance - A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indices rebounded again [4][51][54]. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index has a relatively high valuation, with a PE of 16.6467, an upper - limit value of 15.60, and at the 89.06 percentile since 2010. The ChiNext valuation is relatively low [5][63][64]. 2. Capital Flow - In terms of margin trading, there was a net inflow of 274.8 billion yuan in 2024, and as of November 6, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 681.5 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 600 million yuan in the first five trading days. The total scale of private funds increased by 835.7 billion yuan this year, and the newly registered scale was 343 billion yuan. In the second quarter of 2025, the market value of A - share stocks and funds held by insurance funds increased by 251.3 billion yuan, and in the first half of 2025, it increased by 641.9 billion yuan. From April 7 to November 5, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 106.8 billion yuan, with an increase of 8.9 billion yuan last week. As of November 5, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 9.8 billion yuan. As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion yuan, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan [6][68][70]. 3. Index and Industry Trend Review - In terms of index trends, last week, most of the four major indices rose slightly, with the large - cap stock indices performing well. Among style indices, the cycle and stable style indices had the largest increases, followed by the financial style index, while the consumer index declined slightly. Among Shenwan industries, most industries rose, with cyclical sectors leading the gains and some consumer and technology - related industries leading the losses [4][13][15]. 4. Policy and Economy - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The PPI has shown fluctuations in its decline rate, and in September, industrial enterprise revenue and inventory both increased for the first time. In September 2025, China's social financing scale decreased year - on - year, and the growth rate of medium - and long - term loans continued to decline. A series of policies have been introduced, including promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, creating new monetary policy tools, and implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts [26][31][34]. 5. Earnings of Each Index - A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indices rebounded again [51][54]. 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index has a relatively high valuation, while the ChiNext valuation is relatively low [63][64]. 7. Capital Flow Details - Margin trading, private funds, insurance funds, and ETF funds have all shown different trends in capital inflows and outflows. In the secondary market, major shareholders had a large - scale net reduction of holdings last week, and the scale of restricted - share unlockings was small in November [6][68][99]. 8. Technical Analysis - The four major indices are in a state of shock, and their trends are presented through relevant charts [102][107][111].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PTA周报 供需尚可 短时估值驱动走强 20251109 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 周度观点 供应：上周PTA周均产能利用率77.90%，环比降低0.48个百分点，同比降低1.34个百分点，处在同期中性位。周内 中泰化学重启，独山能源新装置投产，一套老装置停车，英力士周末停车。但年内已新投产能570万吨，产量新高。 需求：上周聚酯行业产量155.50万吨，环比增加0.32%，同比增加4.22%。截至11月6日江浙地区化纤织造综合开工 率69.45%，环比提升0.45个百分点，同比提升0.41个百分点。据隆众，终端表现按需采购为主。 库存：上周PTA行业库存量约316.08万吨，环比增加0.81%。PTA工厂库存4.09天，环比增加0.06天，同比增加0.17 天。库存端社库小幅累库但行业总体库存偏低，下游产品库存中性水位。 观点：TA现货加工费维持低位，产品亏损有所收窄。成本端原油震荡，TA估值驱动反复。供需总体尚可，短线受 消息面联合减产影响震荡偏强，关注后期是否有减产实质落地 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report: Tight Supply on the Supply Side, Limited Downward Adjustment Space for Coking Coal and Coke" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, market sentiment cooled, and the black chain weakened. Coking coal and coke were relatively strong in the black chain, with a small correction range. The supply of coking coal is tight due to factors such as mine over - production checks and stricter safety supervision policies, but the demand is weak as steel mills' profits are poor, blast furnace maintenance has expanded, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Overall, the short - term weakening of demand puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to the tight supply of coking coal and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Supply**: For coking coal, last week, the coal mine开工率 decreased week - on - week, and coking coal production slightly declined. Factors such as over - production checks, safety, and environmental protection restricted the supply elasticity of coking coal. For coke, the supply was tight, and the capacity utilization rate continued to decline. On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 63.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons [4] - **Demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline. The profit rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and coking profits improved slightly, but most coking enterprises still suffered serious losses. The supply of coke was tight, steel mills' profits were poor, blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory structure of coal mines improved week - on - week. On November 7, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.1924 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123,700 tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing was good, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 175,400 tons week - on - week to 10.7002 million tons, while the coking coal inventory of steel mills slightly decreased. For coke, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term demand weakness puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to tight coking coal supply and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] - **Strategy**: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips, with a reference operating range of 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [4] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content for analysis is provided in the given text 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of coking coal futures contracts (DCE jm2601, jm2605), coke futures contracts (DCE j2601, j2605), the price differences between contracts 1 - 5 for coking coal and coke, as well as the spot prices of coking coal (including Port Mongolian 5 raw coal, Lvliang medium - sulfur main coking coal, etc.) and coke (including Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke, Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke, etc.) through charts [9][13][19][25] 4. Inventory - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased week - on - week, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, and that of steel mills slightly decreased. Charts show the inventory trends of mines, ports, 247 steel mills, and all - sample independent coking enterprises [4][32][38] - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week. Charts show the inventory trends of all - sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, ports, and all - sample coke [4][39] 5. Supply Side - **Coking Coal Import**: No detailed analysis content is provided, only charts of coking coal imports from different regions to China are presented [49] - **Coking Coal Production**: On November 7, the coking coal开工率 of 523 sample mines was 83.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%; the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons [55] - **Coking Output**: On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of national independent coking enterprises was 635,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of 247 steel mills' coke also decreased week - on - week [56][59] 6. Demand Side - **Hot Metal and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline [63] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The report presents the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil through charts [64][66] - **Long - Process and Short - Process Production**: The report presents the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar through charts [73] - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit**: As of November 7, 2025, the profit rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is changeable, causing greater fluctuations in polyolefins. The decline in crude oil weakens the cost - side drive. With large - scale capacity investment and high output, the supply side faces significant pressure. The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, demand falls short of expectations, and the end of the peak season and insufficient new orders may affect the continuous improvement of subsequent operations. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to run weakly. Futures should be operated bearishly on a single - side basis, and straddle options should be sold [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 470,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from rising to falling. The new Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased production, putting pressure on producers, who have an expectation of active de - stocking. The downstream factory operating rate is also expected to rise, and low prices are more attractive. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 580,000 tons, a decrease from the current period. Upstream enterprises are actively de - stocking, and the Double Eleven e - commerce festival drives downstream demand [6]. - **Supply**: This week, plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Zhongtian Hechuang are planned to restart, and new plants of Sinopec Korea and Zhongsha Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. Coupled with the continuous increase in production from newly - invested plants, the domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. Some producers are still resuming operations, and the estimated loss volume continues to decline. Additionally, the 400,000 - ton/year new plant of Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II will start mass - production and sales soon, so the polypropylene output is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly. The greenhouse film is still in the production peak season, but due to the gradual contraction of demand after the Frost's Descent, orders are mainly short - term small ones. The operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily, but after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profits of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP are slightly in the red, and the loss of PDH - based PP is relatively large. The cost - side support is weakening [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. The price shows a downward trend, and as of November 6th, it was 6,471 yuan. The logic is that the new PP production capacity in 2025 is still large, and downstream demand remains weak. PP is expected to be relatively weak in the medium - to - long - term. The operation suggestion is to hold short positions [7]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - Strategy: Long the L - P spread (on hold). The price shows a volatile trend. For the 2601 contract, as of November 6th, it was 334 yuan. The driving force is not strong, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Production**: The domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The plastic industry has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12.8%. In 2024, the capacity base was 3.571 million tons, and the new capacity was 340,000 tons. In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [6][83][90]. - **PP Production**: The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. In 2024, China's PP realized production capacity was about 3.45 million tons, with a capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the planned new PP production capacity is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume is relatively limited [6][89][91]. 3.5 Demand Side - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly, and the operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily. However, after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations. The report also presents data on the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE and PP, as well as the production and export volumes of related products such as plastics, automobiles, and home appliances [6][94].

审核：萧勇辉 从业资格号：F03091536 交易咨询号：Z0019917 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供需延续弱势 盘面继续探底 20251109 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 周度观点及策略 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率80.75%，环比提升2.49个百分点，同比提升2.67个百分点，处在同期偏高位。主要是部分 电石法企业开工率增加。在年内新增产能不断释放背景下，供应依旧承压。 需求：上周管材开工率明显走弱，主要是北方地区部分降负荷。型材开工率暂持稳。总体终端需求逐步步进入季节 性淡季。加之宏观房地产行业仍较低迷，需求将继续承压。出口方面，受印度政策影响亦存压力，关注后期出口数 据变化。 库存：上周国内PVC社会库存（41 家）104.14万吨，环比增加1.12%，同比增加26.40%。企业库存33.46万吨，环比 降低1.0%，同比降低13.05%。据隆众，下游维持刚需采购，拿货积极性一般，出口市场放缓，在途库存陆续抵达， 导致社库增加。仓单库存维持高位。 观点：成本方面电石乙烯价格弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of sufficient domestic soybean supply and poor import soybean crushing margins, it is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will experience short - term wide - range fluctuations [3]. - For US soybeans, the 13% tariff on US soybean imports is still higher than the 3% tariff on South American soybeans. Market expectations suggest that the purchase of US soybeans is limited to state - owned oil mills, and the amount flowing into crushing is limited. China has promised to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million tons per year for the next three years, but it is expected that part of the 12 million tons of purchased US soybeans will enter the national reserve [4]. - In South America, the rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean sowing. Data from the US Climate Prediction Center shows that the La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on South American soybean production [4]. - Domestically, the widespread losses in domestic import soybean crushing margins have strengthened the price - holding intention of oil mills, which supports the price of soybean meal [4]. - For trading strategies, for single - sided trading, the support level for soybean meal 2601 is recommended to be around 2900 - 3000. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, the soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly. The main reasons for the increase were the poor import soybean crushing margins, which supported the meal price, and the possibility that part of the imported US soybeans might enter the national reserve. The September USDA report slightly favored the bearish side. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated yield per acre of soybeans in 2025/26 by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels per acre, increased the soybean planting area by 200,000 acres, increased the crushing volume by 15 million bushels, and decreased the export volume by 20 million bushels, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory from the August estimate of 290 million bushels to 300 million bushels [14]. - The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2. Supply Side - According to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report, as of the week ending September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [30]. - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.15 per bushel, a 7.73% decrease from the previous week and a 33.02% decrease from the same period last year [36]. - In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.498 million tons or 13.17%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.331 million tons or 5.29% [39]. - As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons or 5.39% from the previous week and an increase of 1.6005 million tons or 29.06% from the same period last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons or 9.33% from the previous week and an increase of 168,900 tons or 17.16% from the same period last year [69]. - As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 7.75 days, a decrease of 0.26 days or 3.39% from October 31 and a decrease of 6.69% from the same period last year [72]. - As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 7,100 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The unexecuted contracts were 7,100 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [74]. 3.3. Demand Side - The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig self - breeding profits, pig外购 profits, white - feather broiler breeding profits, and laying - hen breeding profits through charts, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the text [54][58][63].

Report Information - Report Title: Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report - Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Iron Ore Oscillating Downward [1] - Date: 20251109 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Reviewer: Xiao Yonghui [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - events, during the policy vacuum period, iron ore prices returned to the real - world situation, showing an oscillating downward trend last week. Supply is strong with a significant increase in near - end foreign ore arrivals and high historical shipping volumes, while demand is weak as pig iron production continues to decline, steel mill profitability drops sharply, and blast furnace maintenance expands. With supply exceeding demand, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Strategy: Short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference pressure level of 820 - 850 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 174,600 tons week - on - week to 3.2138 million tons. Non - mainstream regions' shipping decreased by 13,600 tons week - on - week to 530,300 tons [4][39]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.8275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 92,000 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 856,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons [4][36]. - **Arrival Volume**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 1.1893 million tons week - on - week to 3.2184 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 490,000 tons [4][48]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 39,880 tons/day, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [61]. 3.2 Demand - **Pig Iron Production and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 234,220 tons, and pig iron production continued to decline [4][64]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: As of November 7, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [4][78]. - **Consumption of Downstream Products**: The report shows historical data trends of consumption and production of products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, but no specific demand - related data summaries are provided [70][74]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 7, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14.89883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356,350 tons. Among them, Australian ore inventory was 6.17069 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,290 tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 5.87431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,440 tons [4][17][21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill imported iron ore inventory was 9.00994 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,080 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 21 days, the same as the previous week [4][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests holding mid - line long positions in copper, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - Although the TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, the cash flow of smelters is supported by by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, and there is no large - scale production cut for now. In October, the increase in domestic smelting maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in the year - on - year growth rate and a month - on - month decrease in electrolytic copper production. The limited supply of anode copper restricts production, and the production in November may continue to decline. The increase in imported copper arrivals and weak downstream consumption have slowed down the inventory depletion rate [7]. - The traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the downstream copper operating rate may decline, mainly dragged down by the sluggish building materials, home appliances, and real estate industries. However, the demand from the new energy industry is strong. It is expected that the copper demand in the power grid, new energy, home appliances and other fields from Q4 2025 to 2026 will receive rigid support, forming an important support for the demand side. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market sentiment [7]. - Last week, the LME copper inventory continued its downward trend, reaching a two - month low. The domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, and high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases. It is expected that the market will remain strong this week, with the possibility of further upward breakthrough [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Hold mid - line long positions, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro**: Sino - US trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur are unlikely to be a turning point in bilateral relations. China's "15th Five - Year Plan" has significantly boosted market sentiment [7]. - **Supply**: The TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, but by - product revenues support smelters. In October, domestic smelting maintenance increased, and production may decline in November. Imported copper arrivals and weak consumption slowed inventory depletion [7]. - **Demand**: The traditional peak season is ending, and downstream operating rates may fall due to weak industries, but new energy demand is strong. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market expectations [7]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory is down, while domestic social inventory is up, and high prices suppress purchases [7]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets There is no specific text content for summary in this section, only figure - related information. 3.3. Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution and Capital Expenditure**: Copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Australia, Peru, etc. China's copper resources are relatively scarce. Global long - term capital expenditure restricts incremental supply, and existing mines face challenges in stable production. Optimistic estimates for global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56, 128, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. In a neutral scenario, the supply growth rates are expected to be 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [21][22]. - **Copper Concentrate**: As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate is - 42.50 US dollars/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price is 2902 US dollars/dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [27]. - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: Different data sources show the copper production of various countries. The global copper mine production in 2024 was 22.388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [29]. - **Global Major Copper Mine Project Increment and Main Newly - Added Smelting Capacities**: In the next two years, there will be concentrated new and expansion projects of mines. The global copper mine capacity is expanding, but the capacity utilization rate is decreasing. In 2024, the global copper mine capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [32][34]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to September, the imports were 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In the 43rd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 404,000 tons [37]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In August 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3033 million tons, with a surplus of 256,500 tons. From January to August, the production was 18.2159 million tons, with a surplus of 1.8436 million tons. In September 2025, China's domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 10.1596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.64% [44]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In September 2025, China's refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 3.5509 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.07% [47]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 1.699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. As of October 24, 2025, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 3079 yuan/ton [52]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 136,900 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached 348,000 tons, a new high in recent years [56][57]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, China's social inventory was 189,800 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [60][61]. 3.4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the imports were 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [66][70]. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In August, the single - month investment was 48.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26%. From January to August, the cumulative power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with no year - on - year change. In August, the single - month investment was 70.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [75]. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, China's real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and residential investment was 5.2046 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [78]. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9%, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of the total vehicle sales [82]. - **New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate and New Energy Unit Copper Consumption**: It is predicted that by 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales will reach 25 million, accounting for about 25% of the global vehicle sales. By 2030, the market share will exceed 40%. The total copper consumption will increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [86]. - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is about to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is expected that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the building demand [97]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is predicted that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024, be slightly in short supply in 2026, and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand will be in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of Chinese electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [104]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: There is no specific text content for summary in this section.