期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PTA周报 供需尚可 短时估值驱动走强 20251109 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 周度观点 供应：上周PTA周均产能利用率77.90%，环比降低0.48个百分点，同比降低1.34个百分点，处在同期中性位。周内 中泰化学重启，独山能源新装置投产，一套老装置停车，英力士周末停车。但年内已新投产能570万吨，产量新高。 需求：上周聚酯行业产量155.50万吨，环比增加0.32%，同比增加4.22%。截至11月6日江浙地区化纤织造综合开工 率69.45%，环比提升0.45个百分点，同比提升0.41个百分点。据隆众，终端表现按需采购为主。 库存：上周PTA行业库存量约316.08万吨，环比增加0.81%。PTA工厂库存4.09天，环比增加0.06天，同比增加0.17 天。库存端社库小幅累库但行业总体库存偏低，下游产品库存中性水位。 观点：TA现货加工费维持低位，产品亏损有所收窄。成本端原油震荡，TA估值驱动反复。供需总体尚可，短线受 消息面联合减产影响震荡偏强，关注后期是否有减产实质落地 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report: Tight Supply on the Supply Side, Limited Downward Adjustment Space for Coking Coal and Coke" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, market sentiment cooled, and the black chain weakened. Coking coal and coke were relatively strong in the black chain, with a small correction range. The supply of coking coal is tight due to factors such as mine over - production checks and stricter safety supervision policies, but the demand is weak as steel mills' profits are poor, blast furnace maintenance has expanded, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Overall, the short - term weakening of demand puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to the tight supply of coking coal and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Supply**: For coking coal, last week, the coal mine开工率 decreased week - on - week, and coking coal production slightly declined. Factors such as over - production checks, safety, and environmental protection restricted the supply elasticity of coking coal. For coke, the supply was tight, and the capacity utilization rate continued to decline. On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 63.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons [4] - **Demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline. The profit rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and coking profits improved slightly, but most coking enterprises still suffered serious losses. The supply of coke was tight, steel mills' profits were poor, blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory structure of coal mines improved week - on - week. On November 7, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.1924 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123,700 tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing was good, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 175,400 tons week - on - week to 10.7002 million tons, while the coking coal inventory of steel mills slightly decreased. For coke, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term demand weakness puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to tight coking coal supply and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] - **Strategy**: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips, with a reference operating range of 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [4] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content for analysis is provided in the given text 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of coking coal futures contracts (DCE jm2601, jm2605), coke futures contracts (DCE j2601, j2605), the price differences between contracts 1 - 5 for coking coal and coke, as well as the spot prices of coking coal (including Port Mongolian 5 raw coal, Lvliang medium - sulfur main coking coal, etc.) and coke (including Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke, Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke, etc.) through charts [9][13][19][25] 4. Inventory - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased week - on - week, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, and that of steel mills slightly decreased. Charts show the inventory trends of mines, ports, 247 steel mills, and all - sample independent coking enterprises [4][32][38] - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week. Charts show the inventory trends of all - sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, ports, and all - sample coke [4][39] 5. Supply Side - **Coking Coal Import**: No detailed analysis content is provided, only charts of coking coal imports from different regions to China are presented [49] - **Coking Coal Production**: On November 7, the coking coal开工率 of 523 sample mines was 83.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%; the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons [55] - **Coking Output**: On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of national independent coking enterprises was 635,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of 247 steel mills' coke also decreased week - on - week [56][59] 6. Demand Side - **Hot Metal and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline [63] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The report presents the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil through charts [64][66] - **Long - Process and Short - Process Production**: The report presents the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar through charts [73] - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit**: As of November 7, 2025, the profit rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is changeable, causing greater fluctuations in polyolefins. The decline in crude oil weakens the cost - side drive. With large - scale capacity investment and high output, the supply side faces significant pressure. The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, demand falls short of expectations, and the end of the peak season and insufficient new orders may affect the continuous improvement of subsequent operations. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to run weakly. Futures should be operated bearishly on a single - side basis, and straddle options should be sold [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 470,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from rising to falling. The new Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased production, putting pressure on producers, who have an expectation of active de - stocking. The downstream factory operating rate is also expected to rise, and low prices are more attractive. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 580,000 tons, a decrease from the current period. Upstream enterprises are actively de - stocking, and the Double Eleven e - commerce festival drives downstream demand [6]. - **Supply**: This week, plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Zhongtian Hechuang are planned to restart, and new plants of Sinopec Korea and Zhongsha Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. Coupled with the continuous increase in production from newly - invested plants, the domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. Some producers are still resuming operations, and the estimated loss volume continues to decline. Additionally, the 400,000 - ton/year new plant of Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II will start mass - production and sales soon, so the polypropylene output is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly. The greenhouse film is still in the production peak season, but due to the gradual contraction of demand after the Frost's Descent, orders are mainly short - term small ones. The operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily, but after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profits of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP are slightly in the red, and the loss of PDH - based PP is relatively large. The cost - side support is weakening [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. The price shows a downward trend, and as of November 6th, it was 6,471 yuan. The logic is that the new PP production capacity in 2025 is still large, and downstream demand remains weak. PP is expected to be relatively weak in the medium - to - long - term. The operation suggestion is to hold short positions [7]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - Strategy: Long the L - P spread (on hold). The price shows a volatile trend. For the 2601 contract, as of November 6th, it was 334 yuan. The driving force is not strong, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Production**: The domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The plastic industry has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12.8%. In 2024, the capacity base was 3.571 million tons, and the new capacity was 340,000 tons. In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [6][83][90]. - **PP Production**: The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. In 2024, China's PP realized production capacity was about 3.45 million tons, with a capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the planned new PP production capacity is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume is relatively limited [6][89][91]. 3.5 Demand Side - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly, and the operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily. However, after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations. The report also presents data on the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE and PP, as well as the production and export volumes of related products such as plastics, automobiles, and home appliances [6][94].

审核：萧勇辉 从业资格号：F03091536 交易咨询号：Z0019917 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供需延续弱势 盘面继续探底 20251109 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 周度观点及策略 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率80.75%，环比提升2.49个百分点，同比提升2.67个百分点，处在同期偏高位。主要是部分 电石法企业开工率增加。在年内新增产能不断释放背景下，供应依旧承压。 需求：上周管材开工率明显走弱，主要是北方地区部分降负荷。型材开工率暂持稳。总体终端需求逐步步进入季节 性淡季。加之宏观房地产行业仍较低迷，需求将继续承压。出口方面，受印度政策影响亦存压力，关注后期出口数 据变化。 库存：上周国内PVC社会库存（41 家）104.14万吨，环比增加1.12%，同比增加26.40%。企业库存33.46万吨，环比 降低1.0%，同比降低13.05%。据隆众，下游维持刚需采购，拿货积极性一般，出口市场放缓，在途库存陆续抵达， 导致社库增加。仓单库存维持高位。 观点：成本方面电石乙烯价格弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of sufficient domestic soybean supply and poor import soybean crushing margins, it is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will experience short - term wide - range fluctuations [3]. - For US soybeans, the 13% tariff on US soybean imports is still higher than the 3% tariff on South American soybeans. Market expectations suggest that the purchase of US soybeans is limited to state - owned oil mills, and the amount flowing into crushing is limited. China has promised to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million tons per year for the next three years, but it is expected that part of the 12 million tons of purchased US soybeans will enter the national reserve [4]. - In South America, the rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean sowing. Data from the US Climate Prediction Center shows that the La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on South American soybean production [4]. - Domestically, the widespread losses in domestic import soybean crushing margins have strengthened the price - holding intention of oil mills, which supports the price of soybean meal [4]. - For trading strategies, for single - sided trading, the support level for soybean meal 2601 is recommended to be around 2900 - 3000. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, the soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly. The main reasons for the increase were the poor import soybean crushing margins, which supported the meal price, and the possibility that part of the imported US soybeans might enter the national reserve. The September USDA report slightly favored the bearish side. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated yield per acre of soybeans in 2025/26 by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels per acre, increased the soybean planting area by 200,000 acres, increased the crushing volume by 15 million bushels, and decreased the export volume by 20 million bushels, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory from the August estimate of 290 million bushels to 300 million bushels [14]. - The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2. Supply Side - According to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report, as of the week ending September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [30]. - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.15 per bushel, a 7.73% decrease from the previous week and a 33.02% decrease from the same period last year [36]. - In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.498 million tons or 13.17%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.331 million tons or 5.29% [39]. - As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons or 5.39% from the previous week and an increase of 1.6005 million tons or 29.06% from the same period last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons or 9.33% from the previous week and an increase of 168,900 tons or 17.16% from the same period last year [69]. - As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 7.75 days, a decrease of 0.26 days or 3.39% from October 31 and a decrease of 6.69% from the same period last year [72]. - As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 7,100 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The unexecuted contracts were 7,100 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [74]. 3.3. Demand Side - The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig self - breeding profits, pig外购 profits, white - feather broiler breeding profits, and laying - hen breeding profits through charts, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the text [54][58][63].

Report Information - Report Title: Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report - Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Iron Ore Oscillating Downward [1] - Date: 20251109 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Reviewer: Xiao Yonghui [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - events, during the policy vacuum period, iron ore prices returned to the real - world situation, showing an oscillating downward trend last week. Supply is strong with a significant increase in near - end foreign ore arrivals and high historical shipping volumes, while demand is weak as pig iron production continues to decline, steel mill profitability drops sharply, and blast furnace maintenance expands. With supply exceeding demand, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Strategy: Short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference pressure level of 820 - 850 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 174,600 tons week - on - week to 3.2138 million tons. Non - mainstream regions' shipping decreased by 13,600 tons week - on - week to 530,300 tons [4][39]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.8275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 92,000 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 856,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons [4][36]. - **Arrival Volume**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 1.1893 million tons week - on - week to 3.2184 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 490,000 tons [4][48]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 39,880 tons/day, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [61]. 3.2 Demand - **Pig Iron Production and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 234,220 tons, and pig iron production continued to decline [4][64]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: As of November 7, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [4][78]. - **Consumption of Downstream Products**: The report shows historical data trends of consumption and production of products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, but no specific demand - related data summaries are provided [70][74]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 7, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14.89883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356,350 tons. Among them, Australian ore inventory was 6.17069 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,290 tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 5.87431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,440 tons [4][17][21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill imported iron ore inventory was 9.00994 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,080 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 21 days, the same as the previous week [4][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests holding mid - line long positions in copper, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - Although the TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, the cash flow of smelters is supported by by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, and there is no large - scale production cut for now. In October, the increase in domestic smelting maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in the year - on - year growth rate and a month - on - month decrease in electrolytic copper production. The limited supply of anode copper restricts production, and the production in November may continue to decline. The increase in imported copper arrivals and weak downstream consumption have slowed down the inventory depletion rate [7]. - The traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the downstream copper operating rate may decline, mainly dragged down by the sluggish building materials, home appliances, and real estate industries. However, the demand from the new energy industry is strong. It is expected that the copper demand in the power grid, new energy, home appliances and other fields from Q4 2025 to 2026 will receive rigid support, forming an important support for the demand side. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market sentiment [7]. - Last week, the LME copper inventory continued its downward trend, reaching a two - month low. The domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, and high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases. It is expected that the market will remain strong this week, with the possibility of further upward breakthrough [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Hold mid - line long positions, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro**: Sino - US trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur are unlikely to be a turning point in bilateral relations. China's "15th Five - Year Plan" has significantly boosted market sentiment [7]. - **Supply**: The TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, but by - product revenues support smelters. In October, domestic smelting maintenance increased, and production may decline in November. Imported copper arrivals and weak consumption slowed inventory depletion [7]. - **Demand**: The traditional peak season is ending, and downstream operating rates may fall due to weak industries, but new energy demand is strong. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market expectations [7]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory is down, while domestic social inventory is up, and high prices suppress purchases [7]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets There is no specific text content for summary in this section, only figure - related information. 3.3. Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution and Capital Expenditure**: Copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Australia, Peru, etc. China's copper resources are relatively scarce. Global long - term capital expenditure restricts incremental supply, and existing mines face challenges in stable production. Optimistic estimates for global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56, 128, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. In a neutral scenario, the supply growth rates are expected to be 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [21][22]. - **Copper Concentrate**: As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate is - 42.50 US dollars/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price is 2902 US dollars/dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [27]. - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: Different data sources show the copper production of various countries. The global copper mine production in 2024 was 22.388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [29]. - **Global Major Copper Mine Project Increment and Main Newly - Added Smelting Capacities**: In the next two years, there will be concentrated new and expansion projects of mines. The global copper mine capacity is expanding, but the capacity utilization rate is decreasing. In 2024, the global copper mine capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [32][34]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to September, the imports were 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In the 43rd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 404,000 tons [37]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In August 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3033 million tons, with a surplus of 256,500 tons. From January to August, the production was 18.2159 million tons, with a surplus of 1.8436 million tons. In September 2025, China's domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 10.1596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.64% [44]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In September 2025, China's refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 3.5509 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.07% [47]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 1.699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. As of October 24, 2025, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 3079 yuan/ton [52]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 136,900 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached 348,000 tons, a new high in recent years [56][57]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, China's social inventory was 189,800 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [60][61]. 3.4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the imports were 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [66][70]. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In August, the single - month investment was 48.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26%. From January to August, the cumulative power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with no year - on - year change. In August, the single - month investment was 70.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [75]. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, China's real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and residential investment was 5.2046 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [78]. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9%, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of the total vehicle sales [82]. - **New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate and New Energy Unit Copper Consumption**: It is predicted that by 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales will reach 25 million, accounting for about 25% of the global vehicle sales. By 2030, the market share will exceed 40%. The total copper consumption will increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [86]. - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is about to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is expected that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the building demand [97]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is predicted that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024, be slightly in short supply in 2026, and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand will be in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of Chinese electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [104]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: There is no specific text content for summary in this section.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 57.25% and 51.89% respectively, but last week they decreased by 2.94% and 6.17% [4][21]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, including a weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability [6]. - Short - term advice is to take profits on long gold positions, and for options, take profits on purchased call options [1][6]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - **Price Trends**: Since 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had significant increases, but declined last week [4][21]. - **Inflation**: CPI reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined. Since February 2024, CPI rebounded, and core inflation showed signs of slowing decline or rising. In September 2025, CPI slightly increased, while core CPI slightly decreased [4][24]. - **Interest Rates**: US medium - term Treasury yields declined from mid - October 2023 to January 2025, rebounded since February 2024, and fell below the 2024 low since September [4][28]. - **Supply and Demand**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is conducive to price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, mainly due to increased investment demand. The domestic gold market remained in a tight balance in 2024 and 2025, with significant increases in investment demand and central bank gold purchases [4][41]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, US non - farm employment data was much weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The average hourly wage of non - farm employees increased by 0.4% [4][37]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Outlook**: Gold prices opened high and closed low last Friday, with a slight decline. After a significant increase due to risk - aversion sentiment, gold prices dropped on the evening of October 21st, mainly due to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking from overbought technical conditions. However, the long - term upward trend of gold remains [6]. - **Strategy**: For long gold positions, consider reducing positions in the medium term and setting stop - profit levels. For call options, take profits [6]. Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Tables**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is beneficial for price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, and the domestic market remained in a tight balance [38][41]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline. The Chinese central bank has been purchasing gold since 2022, with different purchase volumes in each quarter of 2025 [45]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023 and 2024, gold holdings in ETFs decreased. As of October 24, 2025, gold holdings in ETFs increased by 265.07 tons, but last week there was a reduction of 3.91 tons [46]. Other Market Indicators - **Exchange Rates and Dollar Index**: The report presents trends in the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and other major currencies [53]. - **Gold Price Differences**: The price difference between domestic and international gold markets fluctuated significantly [69][70]. - **Precious Metal and Oil Ratios**: The report shows trends in the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with high pig production capacity and a weak demand outlook. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the pig price is under pressure. Although the policy has released positive signals, the actual reduction in production capacity is less than expected. The pig price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state in the short term, with a possible seasonal improvement in the fourth quarter and a potential price rebound [7][8]. - For the strategy, the main contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level, with a reference range of 11,000 - 13,000. In the options market, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints** - **Spot Market**: The weekly average price of live pigs increased to 11.33 yuan/kg, up 3.47% week - on - week and down 34.92% year - on - year. The low pig price has increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, providing some support around 10 yuan/kg. However, the high supply and weak demand situation persists, and the market is expected to remain weak and volatile [7][14]. - **Production Capacity**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the national pig slaughter reached 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The pork output was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. By the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The production efficiency has improved, and the pig slaughter is expected to continue to grow until May 2026 [7]. - **Strategy Views and Outlook** - **Outlook**: Policy signals are positive, but the actual reduction in production capacity is slow. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand, so the pig price is under pressure. In the medium term, the production capacity is still being released. The government has introduced a "double 100,000 - head" task for large - scale breeding enterprises. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year is still large, but the demand may improve seasonally in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 - 13,000. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The weekly average price of live pigs increased to 11.33 yuan/kg, up 3.47% week - on - week and down 34.92% year - on - year. The low price has increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, but the high supply and weak demand situation persists [14]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: No specific information provided. - **Futures Price Spreads**: No specific analysis provided. - **Standard - Fat and Hairy - White Price Spreads**: The prices of standard and fat pigs increased synchronously this week. The average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.76 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The increase was due to the sufficient supply of standard pigs, low inventory of large - weight fat pigs, and the recovery of catering consumption. The price increase of standard pigs was more significant, leading to a narrowing of the price difference [34]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 166.43 yuan/head, up 0.72% week - on - week and down 50.57% year - on - year. The low market sentiment and strict environmental regulations in Guangdong and Guangxi have reduced the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment [38]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows this week was 8.29 yuan/kg, up 2.01% week - on - week and down 35.59% year - on - year. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate with the pig price [41]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In September 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Although it is within the normal range, it is at the upper limit. The production efficiency has improved, and the pig slaughter is expected to grow until May 2026. According to sample data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly in September, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms also decreased [45][48]. - **Culling Volume of Breeding Sows**: In September, the culling volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms was 106,603 heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.60%. The culling volume of small and medium - sized farms was 11,526 heads, a month - on - month increase of 13.80% and a year - on - year increase of 29.83%. The culling volume is expected to continue to increase in October, but the process may be slow [51]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis provided. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In September, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 36.8499 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The inventory of small and medium - sized farms was 1.5402 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The inventory is expected to increase in October [58]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In September, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.2173 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4.54% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.4803 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 33.52%. The slaughter volume is expected to increase in October [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.21 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.49%. The weight is expected to be supported next week [67]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: The proportion of pigs under 90 kg and over 150 kg in the slaughter volume remained the same as last week. The temperature drop has increased the expectation of a wider standard - fat price difference, but it has little impact on the slaughter proportion of small and large - weight pigs [71]. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The fresh - sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises this week was 86.14%, the same as last week. The cold - storage rate was 18.08%, an increase of 0.24% from last week. The fresh - sales rate is expected to decline next week, and the cold - storage rate may continue to increase slightly [76]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh - Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 34.94%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from last week and 7.35 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [77]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis provided. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Pig Breeding and Slaughtering Profit**: The pig breeding industry has entered a deep - loss stage. The average loss per head of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets this week was 149.54 yuan and 279.65 yuan respectively, both showing a downward trend. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the overall supply - demand pattern has not changed fundamentally [91]. - **Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis provided. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The pig - grain ratio this week was 5.13, a week - on - week increase of 3.89%. The market has returned to the third - level early - warning range. The pig - grain ratio is expected to fluctuate little next week [98].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 0.68%. Domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new energy, semiconductor, and photovoltaic industries has increased; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the later period [6]. - In terms of supply, in 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. In September, China's nickel imports were large, and the output of nickel - iron was at a low level; Indonesia's nickel - iron production remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output increased slightly month - on - month. In September 2025, the total output of domestic refined nickel was 36,795 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, in September, the stainless - steel market continued to recover. It is expected that in October, stainless - steel production will still be restricted, with a moderate rebound. The domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high. The operating rate of large stainless - steel manufacturers has rebounded, and the inventory decreased first and then increased. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September [6]. - In terms of inventory, last week, LME nickel inventory increased month - on - month, and SHFE inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [6]. - In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. Trade disputes have an emotional impact on the market. Returning to the fundamentals, imported nickel remains at a high level, and inventory has increased. Indonesian domestic policies have disturbances to supply, but have not actually affected it yet. The output of downstream stainless - steel has improved marginally after falling from a high level, and the inventory has also improved marginally. The nickel price will fluctuate within a range as a whole [6]. - The strategy is to conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options. Later, pay attention to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel output, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports [6]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (red - soil nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report shows figures of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 - month, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis (in yuan per ton) [10]. 3. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with imports of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In August and September 2025, imports were 634,670 tons and 611,440 tons respectively, showing a seasonal increase [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In September 2025, the output was 156,500 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In September 2025, the output was 21,700 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and still at a low level [21]. - In August and September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 tons and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, the nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, in 2024, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In September 2025, the total domestic refined - nickel output was 36,795 tons. From July to August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 tons and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 278,600 tons, at a high level; exports were 17,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31]. Intermediate Products - According to MYSTEEL research statistics, in September 2025, the output of Indonesia's MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. - The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output has been relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In August and September 2025, the output was 20,300 tons and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027 [43]. - In September 2025, the output of nickel sulfate was 39,045.4 tons, an increase month - on - month. From August to September 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 30,292 tons and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 4. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 sample stainless - steel enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43%. In September 2025, the stainless - steel output was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after falling from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,005,282 tons, an increase month - on - month [54]. Cathode Material Demand - In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. From the perspective of the structure of power batteries, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In September 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 5. Inventory Side Social and Bonded - Area Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [64]. Exchange Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. As of October 23, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 26,881 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [69].