1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost-side crude oil is short-term bullish, and TA valuation drivers are mostly positive. Supply and demand are generally weak and stable, and the technical aspect rebounds from oversold conditions following crude oil [5]. - In terms of operations, reduce and then hold a small amount of previous short positions. The resistance level for the 2601 contract is around 4550 - 4650 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, a 0.42 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 4.83 percentage point decrease year-on-year, at a neutral level compared to the same period. During the week, the increase in production at Yisheng New Materials was higher than the decrease at Yisheng Ningbo. Newly commissioned production capacity this year is 5.7 million tons. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of 3 million tons by Xin Fengming in the fourth quarter [5][20]. - Last week, PTA production was 140,560 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week and a 0.96% increase year-on-year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 18,300 tons, a 34.31% increase year-on-year. As domestic self-sufficiency gradually improves, imports are low and can be basically ignored [24]. 3.2 Demand - In September 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 5.9116 million tons, a 0.58% decrease from the previous month and a 7.25% increase year-on-year. Last week, the polyester operating rate was 87.53%, a 0.25 percentage point decrease from the previous week and a 0.94 percentage point decrease year-on-year, generally at a neutral level compared to the same period [26]. - Last week, the polyester industry's output was 1.5497 million tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week and a 4.13% increase year-on-year. As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, a 2.39 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 2.27 percentage point decrease year-on-year. According to Longzhong, the terminal performance is mediocre, downstream purchases are mostly for rigid demand, and the sales performance of polyester filament factories is average [5][29]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 2.8739 million tons, a 16.07% decrease year-on-year. From January to September, the cumulative textile export value was $220 million, a 0.45% decrease year-on-year [47]. 3.3 Inventory - According to Longzhong statistics, last week, the PTA industry inventory was approximately 3.1413 million tons, a 1.58% decrease from the previous week. The PTA factory inventory was 4.07 days, a 0.01-day decrease from the previous week and a 0.31-day decrease year-on-year. The polyester product line also saw inventory reduction [5][51]. - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 6.95 days, a 0.4-day decrease from the previous week and a 1.4-day decrease year-on-year [52]. 3.4 Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread weakened slightly week-on-week and was slightly higher year-on-year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable week-on-week and was higher year-on-year. The overall futures inter-month spread showed a slightly contango structure with near-term prices lower and far-term prices higher [13]. - The 9 - 1 spread remained stable week-on-week and was weak year-on-year. The basis weakened slightly week-on-week and was low year-on-year [16]. 3.5 Valuation - PX prices rebounded, and PTA processing fees also rebounded. The PTA spot processing fee decreased slightly week-on-week and was the weakest in recent years compared to the same period. The futures contract processing fee decreased slightly week-on-week and was low year-on-year [64][71][75]. - The profits of PTA downstream products showed different trends, with some products' production margins fluctuating [72][76][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is expected to rebound. The supply - side valuation is low, and the import growth rate has slowed down. Although there are issues such as over - drafted demand in exports and new car sales and the weakness of the real estate market, policy dividends continue, heavy - truck sales are growing rapidly, and passenger car sales remain at a high level. With a relatively low current valuation and the inflection point of inflation and production capacity cycle raising the lower limit, combined with the seasonally strong price period from August to November, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The operating range of RU is expected to be between 14,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and key indicators to observe are the changes in explicit inventory and heavy - truck sales. An arbitrage strategy of going long on RU and short on NR is also suggested [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - The real estate market continues to decline and is yet to stabilize. Industrial added - value and social retail data are marginally weakening. Domestically, there is an anti - involution trend. Externally, the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented, which is beneficial for the capital side, but the spill - over effect of a potential US recession should be guarded against [5]. Supply - The long - term cycle shift enhances the valuation, but the supply elasticity is large. The phenological conditions in natural rubber producing areas this year are better than last year. The weak price difference between glue and cup - lump implies that supply is not a major problem. The weather is expected to be good, and the enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable. There is a strong expectation of increased supply in October. However, currently, raw materials are relatively firm, the processing sector is in the red, and the basis is the strongest in the past five years. The global output is expected to increase by 0.5% this year, and China's import volume is expected to increase by about 10%. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is also relatively low compared to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber [5]. Inventory - Exchange RU warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and NR warehouse receipts were once at an extreme low. The de - stocking speed of Qingdao dry rubber inventory is slow, but the latest period shows accelerated de - stocking. Synthetic rubber inventory is at a neutral level. The inventory of all - steel tires in downstream factories is lower than in previous years, and the inventory of semi - steel tires is at a high level but is considered neutral considering the expansion of the market scale [5]. Demand - Export rush and replacement of old products have over - drafted demand. There is no expectation of improvement in the real estate market. The large - scale infrastructure project has begun, which is beneficial for the long - term demand of heavy - trucks. Heavy - truck sales have accelerated improvement under the stimulation of replacement policies and environmental protection policies. In September, the year - on - year increase exceeded 80%, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks increased by about 22% year - on - year. The performance of construction machinery is mediocre. Passenger car sales remain at a historical high but show a downward trend. The operating rate of all - steel tires has improved compared to last year, and the inventory has decreased; the operating rate of semi - steel tires has marginally decreased, and the inventory has remained flat [5]. Strategy - Pay attention to the supply increase during the peak season as the supply - side valuation is low and the import growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the weakness of the real estate market is the main line of demand. Although there is over - drafted demand in exports and new car sales, policy dividends continue, heavy - truck sales are growing rapidly, and passenger car sales remain at a high level. It is recommended to buy at low levels, with the RU operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Key indicators to observe are the changes in explicit inventory and heavy - truck sales. An arbitrage strategy of going long on RU and short on NR is also suggested [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -中美贸易摩擦影响减弱，俄美谈判破裂以及美国再次采购战略石油储备利多油价 [4] -供应端，OPEC+增产幅度不及预期且实际产量增幅弱于预期，增产进度仍需观察；需求端，美国需求旺盛，中国需求回稳，需求端整体稳中有升 [4] -关税问题负面影响逐渐消退，原油基本面较好，对油价有一定支撑作用，建议轻仓试多 [4] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: 上周美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存下降，因炼油活动和需求增强。美国商业原油库存减少96.1万桶，至4.228亿桶；汽油库存减少210万桶，至2.167亿桶；馏分油库存减少150万桶，至1.156亿桶 [4][21] - **Supply**: OPEC+决定10月开始增产，此轮增产意味着开始解除第二层减产计划，但实际产量增幅不及预期；美国原油产量上升至1360万桶/日，但页岩油产量触及天花板，供应端存在不确定性 [4][31][35] - **Demand**: 美国炼厂原油加工量增加，产能利用率上升，石油总供应量增加，需求强劲；中国9月原油加工较快增长，需求回稳 [4][45] - **View and Strategy**: 中美贸易摩擦影响减弱等因素利多油价，建议轻仓试多 [4] 3.2 Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: 提供了2024 - 2025年全球原油产量、消费量、库存净提取量等数据 [6] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: 展示了原油从常减压装置开始，经过一系列加工转化为各种产品的产业链结构 [10] 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - 展示了国内外价差、月间价差、INE原油期现价差、BRENT原油期限价差、运费指数、港口运价等图表 [12][15][16][17] 3.4 Inventory - **US Inventory**: 美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存下降，东海岸炼油厂原油净进口量增加 [4][21] - **China Inventory**: 中国6 - 9月库存增量有所回落，因国内原油加工需求环比回升 [23] - **Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts**: 上海能源交易所INE原油仓单近期维持低位 [27] 3.5 Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: OPEC+决定增产，10月开始解除第二层减产计划；OPEC 9月原油产量增加52.4万桶/日 [31] - **US Production**: 上周美国原油产量维持在1360万桶/日，页岩油产量触及天花板，未来增产概率较低 [35] - **Global Production**: 供应端存在不确定性，包括OPEC+增产进程、俄罗斯受制裁、美国页岩油产量瓶颈等问题 [39] 3.6 Demand Side - **China Demand**: 中国9月原油加工较快增长，出行需求有望拉动原油消费；9月原油进口量为4,725.20万吨，1 - 9月累计进口量同比增加2.6%；9月成品油出口量为514.1万吨，1 - 9月累计出口量同比减少4.9% [45][50][53] - **US Demand**: 美国炼厂原油加工量增加，产能利用率上升，石油总需求强劲，季节性需求略好于去年同期 [55][58]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供需延续弱势 盘面底部震荡 20251026 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 周度观点及策略 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率76.57%，环比降低0.12个百分点，同比降低0.67个百分点，处在同期偏高位。本月新增青 岛海湾20万吨新产能，在年内新增产能不断释放背景下，供应依旧承压。 需求：上周管材、型材开工率继续回升。据隆众，下游部分管材开工促销带动开工率增加。不过后期逐步进入季节 性淡季。加之宏观房地产行业仍较低迷，需求将继续承压。出口方面，9月仍表现较好，但受印度政策影响亦存压力， 关注后期出口数据变化。 库存：上周国内PVC社会库存（41 家）103.52万吨，环比增加0.14%，同比增加24.87%。企业库存33.38万吨，环比降 低7.35%，同比降低11.9%。部分企业检修去库存，叠加上游继续向市场与外贸交货，在库库存减少。交易所注册仓单 库存继续增加。 观点：成本方面电石乙烯价格 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石周报 钢厂盈利大幅下滑，铁矿弱势运行 20251026 作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615，交易咨询号：Z0010771 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 供应：最近一期全球铁矿发运量有所回升。2025年10月13日-10月19日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比增加126万吨至3333.5万 吨。其中，澳洲19港发运1915.6万吨，周环比增61.6万吨；巴西19港发运824.3万吨，周环比增11.8万吨；非主流地区发运 有所回升，周环比增52.5万吨至593.5万吨。不过，国内港口外矿到港量有所回落，2025年10月13日-10月19日，中国45港 到港量环比减少526.4吨至2519.4万吨；本轮北方六港到港总量为1203.2万吨，周环比降220.3万吨。铁矿发运环比回升， 近端到港量环比大幅下滑。 ◆ 需求：截至2025年10月24日，MYSTEEL调研247家钢厂盈利率47.62%，较前周下降7.79%；钢厂高炉开工率84.71%，较前周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The low crude oil inventory levels in the US and OECD countries, combined with OPEC+'s less - than - expected production increase, support oil prices. On the supply side, OPEC+ plans to increase production again in October, but the actual increase is lower than expected, and the progress of production increase is uncertain. On the demand side, US crude oil demand is better than in previous years, and domestic crude oil processing demand has increased significantly month - on - month. With the boost of travel consumption, crude oil demand is expected to be further stimulated. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quarterly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Inventory - Due to rising demand, US crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased. Crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels to 414.8 million barrels, contrary to the market expectation of a 235,000 - barrel increase. Cushing's crude oil inventories increased by 177,000 barrels. US net crude oil imports increased by 1.6 million barrels per day, while exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.48 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels to 216.6 million barrels, against the expected 150,000 - barrel increase. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, decreased by 1.7 million barrels to 123 million barrels, more than the expected 494,000 - barrel decrease [4][20]. 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day. OPEC+ decided to increase the oil production target again in October, starting to lift the second - layer production cut plan (with a cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand) more than a year earlier than planned. Previously, OPEC+ had agreed to increase the production target by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September. However, there are uncertainties on the supply side: OPEC+'s actual production increase is lower than expected; Russia's oil supply is tightened due to sanctions; US shale oil production has reached its ceiling [4][32][41]. 3.1.3 Demand - Refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day, but the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 93%. The total refined oil supply, as a demand indicator, increased by 156,000 barrels per day to 2.079 million barrels per day, 190,000 barrels per day higher than the four - week average of the same period last year. In China, the crude oil processing growth rate accelerated in August, with the industrial crude oil processing volume of 63.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, and the daily processing volume of 2.047 million tons [4]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Hold long positions [4]. 3.2 Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure 3.2.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The document provides detailed data on global oil production, consumption, inventory net withdrawals, and end - of - period commercial inventories from January 2024 to December 2025, including breakdowns by OPEC, non - OPEC, OECD, and non - OECD regions [6]. 3.2.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Illustrates the process from crude oil to various refined products such as ethylene, propylene, diesel, gasoline, etc., through different processing devices like atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, ethylene cracker, and catalytic cracker [9]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Market - Presents multiple charts related to the futures - spot market, including domestic - foreign price spreads, monthly spreads, INE crude oil futures - spot price spreads, BRENT crude oil term spreads, freight indices, and port freight rates [11][15][16]. 3.4 Inventory 3.4.1 US Inventory - US crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased due to rising demand. Charts show historical trends of US crude oil and refined oil inventories from 2019 - 2025 [18][20]. 3.4.2 China Inventory - China's inventory increment declined from June - August due to increased domestic crude oil processing demand. Charts show historical trends of China's crude oil inventory increment [22][25]. 3.4.3 Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts - INE crude oil warehouse receipts have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low inventory level of deliverable oil depots [28][29]. 3.5 Supply Side 3.5.1 OPEC Production - OPEC+ decided to increase production in October, starting to lift the second - layer production cut plan. In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day from July. OPEC's 12 - member countries' crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day in August [32][33]. 3.5.2 US Production - Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day. US shale oil production has reached its ceiling, and the growth space is limited due to reduced capital expenditure by oil companies. The number of US oil rigs, a leading indicator of future production, is decreasing [36]. 3.5.3 Global Production - There are uncertainties on the global supply side, including OPEC+'s lower - than - expected production increase, Russia's supply tightening due to sanctions, and the limited growth of US shale oil production [41]. 3.6 Demand Side 3.6.1 China Demand - In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased rapidly, with the industrial crude oil processing volume of 63.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. China's travel demand is strong, which is expected to drive crude oil consumption. China's 8 - month crude oil imports and refined oil exports data are also provided [47][52][55]. 3.6.2 US Demand - US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day, but the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 93%. The total refined oil supply increased by 156,000 barrels per day, higher than the same period last year. US demand is slightly better than last year seasonally [59][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of sufficient spot supply of soybean meal and a narrowing supply gap in the long - term, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be mainly in a weak and volatile trend in the medium and long term [5]. - The U.S. soybeans have entered the concentrated harvesting period with normal progress. Brazilian soybeans have started sowing, and most of the main producing areas will have good rainfall in the next two weeks, which is suitable for sowing. The Argentine government temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal but later resumed the withholding tax on agricultural products such as grains after reaching the quota. China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of soybeans for November - December shipments from Argentina at low prices, narrowing the supply gap of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, which is a long - term negative factor for soybean meal. The China - U.S. trade relationship remains a focus [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral Strategy**: The pressure level of soybean meal 2601 is recommended to refer to 3100 - 3200. For options, it is advisable to go long on volatility [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [8]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the weather conditions in the U.S. soybean producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, the domestic demand for soybean meal, and the China - Canada and China - U.S. trade relations. Overall, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend in the medium and long term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Last week, soybean meal futures were in a weak and volatile trend, mainly due to Argentina's temporary cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal. The September USDA report slightly favored the bearish side. The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated yield per acre of soybeans in 2025/26 by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels per acre, increased the planting area by 200,000 acres, raised the crushing volume by 15 million bushels, and reduced the export volume by 20 million bushels, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory from 290 million bushels in August to 300 million bushels [16]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a relatively low level in history. It is recommended to wait and see. The 1 - 5 price difference of soybean meal was in a weak and volatile trend, and it is also recommended to wait and see [23][25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **U.S. Soybean Sales Data**: As of September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [33]. - **U.S. Soybean Pressing Data**: As of the week of September 19, 2025, the U.S. soybean pressing profit was $3.22 per bushel, a 2.55% increase from the previous week and a 6.94% decrease compared to the same period last year [37]. - **China's Soybean Import Volume**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 609,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of soybeans was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% [40]. - **China's Rapeseed Import Volume**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [42]. - **China's Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing Data**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [46][48][50]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Pig Price and Breeding Profit**: Relevant data charts of China's commercial pig slaughter price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit, and外购 profit are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [54][58]. - **Chicken Breeding Profit**: Relevant data charts of white - feather broiler breeding profit and laying hen breeding profit are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [63]. 3.5 Inventory - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of September 19, the national port soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, a 5.26% decrease from the previous week and a 1.02% increase compared to last year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, a 7.35% increase from the previous week and a 14.28% decrease compared to last year [69]. - **Domestic Feed - Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days**: As of September 26, 2025 (week 39), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 9.60 days, a 1.83% increase from September 19 and a 6.68% increase compared to the same period last year [72]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of September 19, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The unexecuted contracts were 41,500 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side disturbances are expected to decrease, with decent profits and high tapping enthusiasm. Despite the large - cycle inflection point, 2025 supply is likely to increase. - On the demand side, large - scale infrastructure projects are set to start, which will have a long - term positive impact on heavy - truck demand. Heavy - truck sales are improving, and passenger - car sales remain at a high level. - Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the price floor. Coupled with the fact that August to November is usually a season of relatively strong prices, it is predicted that rubber prices will fluctuate upwards. The operating range of ru is expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomy - The real - estate market continues to decline and awaits stabilization. Since July, domestic policies have been clearly aimed at reducing excessive competition, and a series of policy measures have been introduced, bringing benefits to commodities in terms of both supply and demand (large - scale infrastructure). There is a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut overseas [4]. Supply - The natural - rubber growing areas generally have normal weather conditions. Cup - lump prices have slightly stabilized, but the price difference between latex and cup - lump is weak, indicating that supply is not a major issue. Currently, it is the peak production season globally, with normal weather and occasional short - term rainfall disruptions. Tapping enthusiasm is high, and there are initial concerns about the 2025 production volume. The port inventory of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, has rapidly rebounded to a high level in recent years. From January to August this year, the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 19% year - on - year, and the growth rate in August slowed down to 7.8% [4]. Inventory - The dry - rubber inventory in Qingdao has slightly decreased recently, but it is expected that there will still be a large amount of incoming goods, making it difficult to further reduce the inventory. The inventory of synthetic - rubber traders has increased, while the factory inventory is not high. The ru warehouse receipts on the exchange are at a relatively low level and are decreasing marginally, and the nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. The inventory of full - steel tires for downstream users is lower than in previous years, and considering the market expansion, the inventory of semi - steel tires is also not high [4]. Demand - The upcoming large - scale infrastructure projects will have a long - term positive impact on the demand for heavy trucks. Stimulated by the policy of replacing old vehicles with new ones, heavy - truck sales have improved. In August 2025, the sales volume decreased by 1% month - on - month compared to July but increased by about 35% year - on - year compared to 62,500 units in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the heavy - truck market since April this year. The sales volume of construction machinery rebounded significantly and then declined. Passenger - car sales remain at a historical high but have slightly softened [4]. Strategy - Given the reduced expected supply - side disturbances, decent profits, high tapping enthusiasm, and a low base, it is expected that supply in 2025 is likely to increase. On the demand side, large - scale infrastructure projects are driving up demand, heavy - truck sales are improving, and passenger - car sales remain at a high level. Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the price floor. Coupled with the seasonally strong price period from August to November, it is predicted that rubber prices will fluctuate upwards, with the ru operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Key indicators to observe are the visible inventory and heavy - truck sales [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.6%, non - food prices increased by 0.3%, consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. From January to July, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5][51]. - In July 2025, the producer price index for industrial products (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. From January to July, the average PPI decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [5][58]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's gold reserves were 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the end of June 2025, increasing for 9 consecutive months. It is expected that the central bank will continue to increase its gold holdings [6]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.2922 trillion, a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, remaining above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months [6]. - In the first 7 months of this year, China's goods trade showed an upward trend. The total value of imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year [6]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level declined seasonally and generally remained in a downward trend [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are presented. Different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and services have their respective growth rate trends [8]. - The contribution rates of different industries to GDP growth from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and various service - related industries [13]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of added value of major industries from May to June in the past two years are provided, including coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing industries [22]. Major Industrial Output - The output data of major industrial products from June 2024 to June 2025 are listed, including energy products, industrial raw materials, and finished products [24]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption of major industries from March 2024 to May 2025 are given, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and manufacturing [33]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The main industry profit situations vary, with some industries showing growth and others decline [36]. - From January to June 2025, the mining industry's profit was 429.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30.3%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 2.59006 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 417.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [41]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of May 2025, the finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The overall inventory is in a stage from passive replenishment to passive destocking [46]. Price Index CPI - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased. The average CPI from January to July decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [51]. - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of CPI sub - items from July 2024 to July 2025 are presented, including food, clothing, housing, and other categories [52]. PPI - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. The average PPI from January to July decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year [58]. - The year - on - year data of PPI for major industries from July 2024 to July 2025 are provided, including production materials, living materials, and various mining and manufacturing industries [58][61]. - The year - on - year data of industrial producer purchasing prices from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, including fuel power, black metal materials, and other categories [62]. Main City Newly - Built Residential Prices - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of the price index of newly - built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities from June 2015 to June 2025 are shown, including data for first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [63][64][66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak. Although the calcium carbide price has rebounded slightly, it is still in a weak range, lacking valuation drive. The trends within the black building materials sector are divergent. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct intraday short - term trading, with the V2601 contract range reference at 5050 - 5300 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Side - **Capacity and Output**: The effective PVC capacity has reached 2.852 billion tons. Last week, the PVC output was 475,900 tons, a 5.22% increase from the previous week and a 9.63% increase year - on - year. The calcium carbide method's effective capacity is 2.033 billion tons, accounting for about 71.3%, with a weekly output of 336,100 tons (up 3.54% week - on - week and 0.30% year - on - year). The ethylene method's effective capacity is 767 million tons, accounting for about 28.7%, with a weekly output of 139,800 tons (up 9.48% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year) [19][22][25]. - **开工率**: Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 4.73 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively high level. The calcium carbide method's operating rate was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. The ethylene method's operating rate was 81.49%, up 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and 15.73 percentage points year - on - year [28][30]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 124,300 tons, a 0.51% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports of plastics and their products were 9.8782 billion tons, a 2.97% decrease year - on - year [33]. 3.2 Demand - Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.0172 billion tons, a 3.03% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC sales - to - production ratio was 175%, a 14 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week but a 46 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The comprehensive operating rate of downstream products increased slightly but remained the weakest in the same period. The operating rate of mainstream pipes continued to decline, while those of profiles and films remained stable. Weak real - estate conditions have dragged down demand, resulting in insufficient orders for downstream enterprises and low inventory - building willingness [41]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 1.9605 billion tons, a significant 50.26% increase year - on - year, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in June. The cumulative exports of PVC flooring materials were 2.09 million tons, a 11.14% decrease year - on - year [47][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 77,660 tons last week, a 7.50% increase week - on - week and a 17.48% decrease year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 337,200 tons, a 2.35% decrease week - on - week and a 12.66% increase year - on - year. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [54][56]. 3.4 Valuation - **Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke remained stable last week, lower than the same period last year. The price of calcium carbide increased significantly week - on - week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai at 2,350 yuan/ton. The prices of ethylene and vinyl chloride remained stable week - on - week and were lower than the same period last year. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly week - on - week but was slightly higher year - on - year, while the price of liquid chlorine rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [60][63][66]. - **Profit**: The loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - method PVC widened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The loss of the ethylene method also widened slightly week - on - week and was at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [69][73]. 3.5 Futures Market - **Contract Spreads**: Last week, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC weakened, remaining stable year - on - year; the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated, lower than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread had a narrow - range fluctuation, higher than the same period last year. The basis of the main contract weakened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [12][15].