Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, the largest gain since April, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, matching the highest level since August, with 7.1 million unemployed[6] - The manufacturing PMI for November was 50.3%, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing activity[6] Real Estate Market - In November, over 10 cities in China saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transactions, reflecting a recovery trend in the real estate market[5] - Some cities, including Hangzhou and Guangzhou, raised the commercial loan interest rates for first-time homebuyers to maintain a reasonable gap with public housing loan rates[5] Inflation and Prices - The producer price index (PPI) for November was 47.7%, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous month, indicating a decline in factory gate prices[6] - The purchasing price index for raw materials was 49.8%, down 3.6% from the previous month, suggesting a decrease in input costs for manufacturers[6] GDP Growth - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 4.9%, with industrial growth contributing significantly to the overall economic performance[9] - The contribution of the industrial sector to GDP growth was 33.37% in June 2022, showing a strong influence on economic expansion[11]

Economic Performance - From January to October 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%[5] - The operating income of these enterprises was CNY 110.96 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9%[5] - In October 2024, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 10.0% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 27.1%[5] Sector Analysis - The mining industry reported a total profit of CNY 9,845.3 billion, down 12.7% year-on-year; the manufacturing sector's profit was CNY 42,223.1 billion, down 4.2%[5] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a profit increase of 11.5%, totaling CNY 6,612.0 billion[5] Inventory and Production - As of October 2024, the finished goods inventory of industrial enterprises was CNY 6.53 trillion, up 3.9% year-on-year[5] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November 2024 was 50.3%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing sentiment[6] Fiscal Data - From January to October 2024, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 184,981 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%[7] - Tax revenue was CNY 150,782 billion, down 4.5%, while non-tax revenue increased by 15.3% to CNY 34,199 billion[7] Consumer Trends - In October 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 45,396 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, up from 3.2% previously[9] - Retail sales of home appliances surged to a year-on-year growth of 39.2%, significantly contributing to the overall retail sales growth[9]

Fiscal Performance - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 184,981 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%[5] - Tax revenue was CNY 150,782 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 15.3% to CNY 34,199 billion[5] - Central government revenue was CNY 82,482 billion, a decline of 3.9%, while local government revenue increased by 0.9% to CNY 102,499 billion[5] Industrial Growth - In October, the industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.41%[6] - From January to October, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year[6] - Among 41 major industries, 35 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in sectors like chemical manufacturing (6.9%) and automobile manufacturing (6.2%) while non-metallic mineral products saw a decline of 2.6%[6] Consumer Spending - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 45,396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, up from 3.2% in the previous month[7] - Retail sales excluding automobiles were CNY 40,944 billion, growing by 4.9% year-on-year[7] - Home appliance sales surged to a year-on-year growth of 39.2%, contributing approximately 1.8 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth[7] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 4.9%, with projections for the fourth quarter at 5.3%[10] - The contribution of the industrial sector to GDP growth was 33.37% in June 2022, decreasing to 21.88% in March 2023, indicating a shift in economic dynamics[12]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 历史上最大规模化债 贸易顺差创阶段新高 20241110 作者：黄秀仕 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03106904 交易咨询号：Z0018307 研究助理：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 审核：段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 在联期货 1 周度观点及策略 8 交通运输 9 银行与货币 10 利率汇率 11 就业与工资 12 景气调查 13 美国宏观 2 国民经济核算 3 工业 4 价格指数 ( 对外贸易与投资 e 固定资产投资 7 国内贸易 周度观点及策略 周度观点 11月8日下午四点，全国人大常委会办公厅举行新闻发布会，公布常委会审议通过的近年来力度最大的化债举措。而市场最关注的总体化债 规模大致可分为三个部分，首先是6万亿元地方债务限额，全部安排为专项债务限额，一次报批并分三年实施；其次是2024年起连续五年， 在新增地方专项债券中安排8000亿元用于补充政府性基金财力，累计置换隐性债务4万亿元；最后是2029年及以后到期的棚户区改造隐性债 务2万亿元仍按原合同偿还。 上述化债规模 ...

Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose to approximately 104.3, marking a nearly 3% increase year-to-date, the highest since late July[6] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased to 4.25%, up 55 basis points since the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18[6] - In September, the industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[7] Consumer and Retail Data - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a growth acceleration of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 36,573 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%[8] Sector Performance - In September, 36 out of 41 major industries reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in sectors such as transportation equipment manufacturing (13.7%) and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (10.6%)[7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a decline of 1.0%, while new energy vehicles surged by 48.5%[7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The pace of inflation decline in the US has slowed, leading to adjustments in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[6] - Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices have heightened market concerns about global economic recovery, contributing to a rebound in the dollar index[6]

Economic Growth - In Q3 2024, GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend from previous quarters[6] - The GDP for the first three quarters totaled 94,974.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%[6] - The government set a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for 2024, consistent with the previous year's target[6] Industrial Performance - In September 2024, industrial output increased by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] - From January to September 2024, industrial output grew by 5.8% year-on-year[6] - Among 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in output in September[6] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan in September, up 3.2% year-on-year, with a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[7] - Online retail sales totaled 108,928 billion yuan from January to September, growing by 8.6% year-on-year[7] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 3.6% in September[7] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 4.7% year-on-year in September, with declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen[8] - From January to September 2024, real estate investment dropped by 10.1% year-on-year, with residential investment down by 10.5%[8] - The area of new housing starts decreased by 22.2% year-on-year during the same period[8]

Economic Indicators - In September 2024, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, remaining flat compared to the previous month[6] - The average CPI for January to September 2024 rose by 0.3% compared to the same period last year[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September 2024 decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding[6] Price Contributions - Food and tobacco prices rose by 2.3%, contributing approximately 0.66 percentage points to the CPI increase[6] - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 22.9%, impacting the CPI by about 0.48 percentage points[6] - Pork prices increased by 16.2%, contributing 0.21 percentage points to the CPI[6] Industrial Production - The average PPI for January to September 2024 fell by 2.0% year-on-year, while the purchase price index decreased by 2.1%[6] - The prices of production materials dropped by 3.3%, contributing approximately 2.41 percentage points to the overall PPI decline[6] - In September 2024, the PPI and purchase price index decreased by 0.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively[6] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance emphasized four key areas for future fiscal policy: increasing debt limits, issuing special government bonds, supporting the real estate market, and enhancing support for key groups[6] - The Ministry indicated that there is significant room for further debt issuance and deficit increases, signaling a proactive fiscal stance[6]

Economic Indicators - In September 2024, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, slightly up from 49.5% the previous month, indicating a minor recovery in manufacturing sentiment[6] - The production index rose to 51.2%, a significant increase of 1.4%, returning to the expansion zone, reflecting enhanced production willingness among enterprises[6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, down 0.3% from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in non-manufacturing sentiment[6] Industrial Profitability - From January to August 2024, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled CNY 46,527.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[7] - In August 2024, profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 17.8% year-on-year, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[7] - The mining industry saw profits drop by 9.2%, while the manufacturing sector's profits increased by 1.1%[7] Market Trends and Policies - The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a decline in risk appetite, with the ten-year government bond yield dropping to around 2.0%[8] - The People's Bank of China implemented a series of monetary easing measures, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, to enhance market liquidity[8] - The fiscal revenue in August 2024 was CNY 1.2 trillion, with a year-on-year decline of 2.8%, reflecting weak consumption and adjustments in the real estate market[8]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2024, the ten-year government bond yield fell to around 2.0%, marking a new upward trend in medium to long-term government bond futures prices[10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of unexpected monetary easing policies, including a 30 basis point cut in the MLF rate on September 25, 2024[10] - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 reached 18.8% in August 2024, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, the highest this year[11] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.5% year-on-year in August 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%[11] - In the first eight months of 2024, real estate development investment totaled 69,284 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.2%[11] - The manufacturing sector's PMI data showed a decline, indicating weak recovery in the manufacturing industry[10] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The general public budget revenue in August 2024 was 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.8%[10] - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, with new special bonds issued in August reaching 58% of the annual target[10] - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points in September 2024, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months[10] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in August 2024 totaled 38,726 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%[11] - The sales of new commercial housing decreased by 18.0% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, with residential sales down by 20.4%[11]

Labor Market - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group (excluding students) reached 18.8% in August, a 1.7 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking the highest level this year[6] - The unemployment rate for the 25-29 age group (excluding students) rose to 6.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The overall urban surveyed unemployment rate increased to 5.3% in August, up 0.1 percentage points from July[6] Industrial Production - Industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 4.5% year-on-year in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%[6] - From January to August, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with manufacturing growing by 4.3% and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply growing by 6.8%[6] - Among 41 major industries, 32 saw year-on-year growth in added value, with notable growth in industries like railway, shipbuilding, aerospace (12.0%) and computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing (11.3%)[6] Real Estate and Investment - National real estate development investment from January to August fell by 10.2% year-on-year, with residential investment dropping by 10.5%[6] - New housing starts decreased by 22.5% year-on-year, with residential new starts down by 23.0%[6] - Sales of new commercial housing fell by 18.0% year-on-year, with residential sales down by 20.4%[6] Consumer Spending - Total retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 3.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with catering revenue growing by 3.3%[6] - From January to August, total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales up by 3.9%[6] GDP and Sector Contributions - GDP growth in Q2 2024 was 4.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing contributing 39.14% to GDP growth[7][9] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector grew by 10.2% year-on-year, contributing 11.59% to GDP growth[9] - The real estate sector contracted by 4.6% year-on-year, negatively impacting GDP growth by 6.55%[9]