期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货橡胶年报 ——产能收紧，重心有望提高 20251215 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 宏观：房地产继续下滑并有加速迹象，有待企稳。国内反内卷。外围美联储降息，资金面利好。但要提防美国衰退溢出。美国提出到 2030年将GDP提升到40万亿美元。这意味着未来5年，每年GDP名义增速将达到5.5%左右，通胀将带来支撑。 ◆ 供应：大周期拐点已到，证实只会迟到不会缺席。原料易涨难跌，胶农库存在24-25年高位出清，高价会刺激产出，弹性大 ...

华联期货原油年报 供需偏向过剩 20251215 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：姜世东 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 2、科技竞争成为核心战场 人工智能、量子科技、空间科学等新兴技术快速发展，各国竞相争夺战略制高点。中国在量子计算、5G通信、新能源 汽车等领域取得重大成果，同时积极参与全球科技治理，推动科技成果惠及全人类。 3、安全挑战传统与非传统交织 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 国际形势 1、大国博弈延续 特朗普政府第二任期，继续挑起全球贸易摩擦，单边主义、保护主义抬头。但中美关系在竞争中保持战略稳定，元首 外交引领合作方向，经贸关系仍是"压舱石"，但在科技、地缘等领域存在竞争与分歧，双方通过对话管控分歧。 传统安全方面，台海、南海 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC年报 远期供需有望改善 20251215 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：姜世东 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 国际形势 1、大国博弈延续 特朗普政府第二任期，继续挑起全球贸易摩擦，单边主义、保护主义抬头。但中美关系在竞争中保持战略稳定，元首 外交引领合作方向，经贸关系仍是"压舱石"，但在科技、地缘等领域存在竞争与分歧，双方通过对话管控分歧。 2、科技竞争成为核心战场 人工智能、量子科技、空间科学等新兴技术快速发展，各国竞相争夺战略制高点。中国在量子计算、5G通信、新能源 汽车等领域取得重大成果，同时积极参与全球科技治理，推动科技成果惠及全人类。 3、安全挑战传统与非传统交织 传统安全方面，台海 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观年报 新质生产力加速培育 内需民生政策精准发力 20251215 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 中央经济工作会议 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 | | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 提振消费、城乡居民增收、 | 提振消费、提高投资效益、扩 | 新质生产力、现代化产业体系 | 科技创新现代化产业，数字经 济、人工智能，创业投资、股 | | | ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货液化气年报 ——供应充裕需求承压 20251215 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 上游：原油供应端仍有继续增长空间，关注OPEC+在明年一季度后是否重回增产及美国产量空间。需求端预计上半年偏 弱，过剩相对明显。关注俄乌谈判进展。货币贬值之下黄金强势以及地缘局势复杂仍将为油价带来支撑。 ◆ 供应：美国2026年出口能力有望大幅增长，将不是供应瓶颈，2025年实际出口增速3%左右，普氏预计2026 年美国 NGL 供应增长幅度为1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the price center likely to continue moving downward. Although downstream new capacity is still being put into operation at a relatively high rate and methanol demand shows some resilience, the real - estate sector will still be in an adjustment phase, dragging down methanol demand. Meanwhile, domestic planned new methanol capacity is large, imports will remain at a relatively high level, and coal prices will stabilize at a low level. Methanol supply pressure is high, and the overall demand is under pressure [11]. - For trading strategies, short - selling on rallies is recommended, with a pressure level of 2250. For options, selling call options is advised [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Annual View and Strategy - **Macro and Coal Prices**: The global economic growth rate is slowing down, and the domestic real - estate industry is still in a slump. Coal supply may be restricted under safety supervision policies, thermal coal demand is flat, chemical coal demand increases, and coal prices will mainly remain stable [11]. - **View on Methanol Market**: In 2026, the methanol market will face high supply pressure and weak demand. The price center is likely to continue to decline. The recommended trading strategy is to go short on rallies, with a pressure level of 2250, and sell call options [11]. 3.2 Market Review and Technical Analysis - **Market Review**: In 2025, the methanol price showed a volatile downward trend. From January to June, new domestic methanol capacity was put into operation intensively, and high port inventory and a weak macro - environment led to a downward trend. From June to July, the price rebounded due to low port inventory and external events, and then fell back. From August to the present, a large increase in imports and high port inventory led to a continuous decline [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The technical trend of methanol is weak, with a pressure level of 2250 and a support level of 1950 [30]. 3.3 Macro and Coal Prices - **Macro**: The global economic growth rate is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. China's economy shows strong resilience, with an expected growth rate of 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. China's foreign trade has maintained year - on - year growth for 10 consecutive months as of November [40]. - **Coal**: The raw coal production rate is low, and production is restricted. In the first half of 2025, raw coal production increased, but in the second half, it decreased year - on - year. Coal and lignite imports decreased by 10.9% year - on - year. Thermal coal demand decreased, while chemical coal demand increased. Coal prices may remain stable, with a downward trend in the first half of 2025 and a rebound in the second half [46][56]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price and Basis**: The Taicang methanol spot price has fallen to a five - year low, and the basis has fluctuated [62]. - **Domestic Spread and Freight**: Coastal methanol spot prices are weaker than inland prices due to high port inventory [65]. - **International Methanol and Natural Gas Prices**: International methanol prices mainly declined in 2025 [71]. - **Inter - contract Spread**: Recently, due to slow unloading, port inventory has decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread has rebounded from a low level [79]. - **Related Product Ratios**: The ratio of methanol to urea has remained at a relatively high level, and the ratio of methanol to liquefied petroleum gas decreased to a relatively low level in the fourth quarter [83]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Profits - **Import Profit and Trade Margin**: Import profit and the trade margin from Inner Mongolia to East China have fluctuated [88][90]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol production profit is at a five - year high [99]. - **Natural Gas and Coke Oven Gas - to - Methanol Production Profit**: Natural gas and coke oven gas - to - methanol production profit is at a five - year low [104]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Profit**: Methanol - to - olefin profit still shows a large - scale loss [112]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit**: Traditional downstream profits are poor and at a five - year low [116][121]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: From January to November 2025, China's methanol production was 9.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.1%, a 2% increase compared to the same period last year [130]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: From August to October 2025, methanol imports increased by 30% year - on - year [136]. - **New Capacity in 2025 and 2026**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity was about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3%. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with an increase of about 7.3% [139][140]. 3.7 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption of Methanol**: From January to October 2025, methanol apparent consumption was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.67% [146]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate is 90.2%, at a high level [150]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The traditional downstream operating rate is low [154][158]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: Downstream new capacity is being put into operation at a relatively high rate, and the corresponding methanol consumption is 10.52 million tons, indicating some resilience in methanol demand [173]. 3.8 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, at a relatively low level and showing narrow fluctuations [179]. - **Port Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.2344 million tons, remaining at a high level [182].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂年报 产地棕榈油减产周期即将到来 国内油脂一季度或震荡偏强 20251215 邓丹 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 交易咨询号：Z0011401 审核：姜世东 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，马棕9-11月超预期累库打压棕榈油价格大幅下跌，但库存大增的利空在盘面已基本反应。而东 南亚近期迎来洪涝灾害，这表明雨季的到来，加之拉尼娜的影响，同时今年5-8月 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货国债年报 短端宽松托底 长端博弈政策预期 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 20251215 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 2025年货币政策基调延续"适度宽松" ，但更强调精准施策与预期管理，货币政策从总量刺激转向结构性支持与存量效能 释放，重点支持科技创新、普惠小微与消费领域，同时重申防范资金空转与汇率超调 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石年报 供需关系重构，矿价中枢有望下移 20251215 作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 审核：姜世东，从业资格号：F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供应：2026年全球铁矿供应将进入大幅增长期，主流矿、非主流矿及国内矿都有新矿山项目即将面临产能投。从四 大矿的产量指引来看，2026年力拓较2025年变动不大，BHP也仅有少量提质 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to have a significant yield increase, but the impact of La Niña on southern Brazil and Argentina should be monitored. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains at a historically low level, supporting US soybean prices, and there is still room for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports. It is expected that the downward price movement of US soybeans is limited [5]. - On the demand side, the crushing profit of imported soybeans in China is generally in the red, leading oil mills to strengthen their price - holding intentions, which supports the price of soybean meal. The Chinese government is releasing imported soybeans through auctions, and the high transaction prices support the near - month contracts of soybean meal. In the Chinese pig - farming sector, the number of pig slaughterings in 2026 may increase year - on - year, but due to the loss - making situation in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year. In the Chinese poultry sector, the number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to continue growing in 2026, but the growth rate may slow down. In the Chinese egg - laying hen sector, due to the large inventory base of laying hens, past profitability in farming, and low market enthusiasm for culling, the inventory of laying hens in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to remain at a high level [5]. - Overall, with a high probability of South American soybean yield increase and stable domestic demand, the supply - demand situation is loose. There is no strong driving force for a significant increase in soybean and rapeseed meal prices. It is expected that the prices of soybean and rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate within a wide range [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Annual Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply - side: In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to increase in production, but attention should be paid to La Niña's influence on southern Brazil and Argentina. The low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans supports prices, and there is potential for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports [5]. - Demand - side: Domestic soybean crushing losses lead to stronger price - holding by oil mills. The government's soybean auctions with high prices support near - month contracts. Pig slaughter volume may increase in 2026, but weight may decline. Meat - type poultry slaughter is expected to grow with a slowdown in the rate. Laying hen inventory is expected to stay high in Q1 2026 [5]. - Overall: With supply - demand balance, soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [5]. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: The main contract of soybean meal may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 2650 - 3000. For options, consider buying put options after price increases [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [7]. - Outlook: Key factors to watch include the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations [7]. International Situation - US Interest Rates: In September 2025, the US unemployment rate was 4.4%, slightly lower than the Fed's expected 4.5% but higher than the long - term target of 4.2%. The number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000, less than the target of 200,000. Due to the lag in CPI data release caused by the government shutdown and the expected decline in core CPI after considering the easing of China - US trade relations, there is a need for the US to cut interest rates in 2026 [10][12][14]. - China - US Trade: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in late October 2025, trade relations eased, and China promised to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans. On November 5, China officially announced retaining a 10% tariff on US goods, so the current tariff rate for importing US soybeans is 13%. Since resuming imports, China has imported about 4 million tons of US soybeans [18]. - China - Canada Trade: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, leading to a halt in imports in October [20]. Domestic Situation - Domestic Prices: In October 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, indicating weak consumer demand [25]. - GDP Growth: In recent years, due to the in - depth adjustment of the domestic real estate market and the severe external environment, China's GDP growth rate has slowed down [29]. Policy - related Expectations - Anti - dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed: The result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed will be announced before March 9, 2026. The outcome is still uncertain, depending on China - Canada and Canada - US trade relations [34][35]. - State Auction of Imported Soybeans: On December 11, 2025, the National Grain Trading Center auctioned 512,500 tons of imported soybeans (from 2022 and 2023). The trading volume was 397,043 tons, with an average price of 3,935.3 yuan/ton and a trading ratio of 77.5%. The market expects a total of about 4 million tons of imported soybeans to be auctioned, and subsequent auctions need attention [37]. Fundamentals - Futures Price Trends: Since 2025, soybean meal futures prices have risen first, then fallen, and finally fluctuated widely. The price increase in Q1 was due to low imported soybean arrival; the decline in Q2 was due to sufficient supply; in Q4, prices fluctuated weakly with the easing of China - US trade relations [45]. - Feed Futures Contract Spreads: The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal has fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Impact Factors on Supply - La Niña's Impact: The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is - 0.6, below the - 0.5 threshold. Most models suggest La Niña will persist in the Northern Hemisphere winter. However, NOAA predicts a 61% chance of ENSO turning neutral from January to March 2026, and the impact on South American soybean production is expected to be limited [58]. - US Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio: According to the December USDA report, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 6.74%, at a historically low level, which supports US soybean prices and limits the downward price space [60][61]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports: As of early December 2025, Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress reached 95.17%. Before the new harvest, Brazil's available soybean exports are limited [67]. - South American Soybean Planting: As of December 5, 2025, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 90.3%, and as of December 11, Argentina's soybean planting progress was 58.6%. Overall, the planting progress is normal. Although La Niña needs attention, Brazil's soybean production is likely to increase due to the expanded planting area [71]. Demand - side Factors - Pig Farming: In 2025, the inventory of sows capable of reproduction was at a historically high level, indicating a possible year - on - year increase in pig slaughter in 2026. However, due to losses in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year [76]. - Poultry Farming: In 2025, the inventory of parent - generation white - feather broilers was high, and the supply of chicks in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to keep growing. The number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to grow, but at a slower rate. The inventory of laying hens in 2025 reached a historical high, and it is expected to remain high in the first quarter of 2026 [78]. Import and Inventory - Soybean Imports: In November 2025, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.373 million tons from October and an increase of 953,000 tons (13.32%) from November 2024. From January to November 2025, the cumulative soybean imports were 103.7814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6872 million tons (6.89%) [80]. - Rapeseed Imports: In October 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 0 tons. From January to October, the cumulative rapeseed imports were 2.4458 million tons, a 51.8% decrease from the same period last year [84]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and a 30.80% increase from last year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week and a 70.74% increase from last year [89]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons. The low inventory is due to the off - season of aquaculture, and the sufficient supply of soybean meal suppresses rapeseed meal prices [93]. Technical Analysis - The current price of the soybean meal 2605 contract is at a historically low level [99].