Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the broader market opened slightly lower and trended upward, reaching a new high for the year. All four major indices rose, with small-cap stock indices performing strongly. The style indices also all increased, with the cyclical index having the largest gain of nearly 3.5%. Most industries in the Shenwan classification rose, with military, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and comprehensive sectors leading the gains, all with over 5% increases, while only a few sectors like pharmaceutical biology, computer, commercial trade, and tourism posted small losses [4][11][13]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 0.1 percentage points. Supply and demand both declined, with production down 0.6%, new orders down 0.8%, and new export orders down 0.6%. The inventory of finished products decreased again after a one - month increase. Prices of factory - made goods and major raw material purchases increased for two consecutive months after three months of decline [4][23]. - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and to boost the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and lowered interest rates, including reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages. The CSRC proposed measures for mergers, acquisitions, and market value management to increase market activity. An implementation plan for promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to bring an additional 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [4]. - In terms of revenue, the revenue growth rates of the ChiNext, ChiNext, and CSI 500 indices increased, while those of the CSI 1000, Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, except for the Shanghai Composite Index, the net profit growth rates of other indices all increased significantly. Although the performance of the entire A - share market shows signs of stabilization, the 30% increase in tariffs imposed by the US since the second quarter of 2025 may affect the fundamentals of the A - share market, and the A - share performance may bottom out again [4]. - The broader market was oscillating at a high level last Friday, reaching a new high for the year and approaching last year's high. As the August 12 tariff deadline approaches, attention should be paid to whether the tariffs can be extended as scheduled. Overall, the market may need to oscillate and consolidate near the previous high. However, with the stabilization of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the entire A - share market and the four major indices in the first quarter, as well as long - term policy and capital support, the stock index is still optimistic in the long - term. Technically, the broader market has been rising continuously, reaching a new high for the year and is expected to break through the previous high. In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US tariffs will be extended. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks in the medium - term, and for options, a bull spread strategy can be considered [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Index Industry Trends Review - Last week, the broader market opened slightly lower and trended upward, hitting a new high for the year. All four major indices rose, with small - cap stock indices outperforming [11] - All style indices rose last week, with the cyclical index having the largest gain of nearly 3.5%, followed by growth, financial, stable, and consumer style indices. Most industries in the Shenwan classification rose, with military, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and comprehensive sectors leading the gains, all with over 5% increases. Only a few sectors like pharmaceutical biology, computer, commercial trade, and tourism posted small losses [13] Main Contract and Basis Trends - The four major indices attacked again, with the CSI 1000 breaking through last year's high first. In terms of the basis, the discount of the 08 contract continued to narrow within a reasonable range [16] - In terms of the arbitrage of main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upwards, IH/IF fluctuated, and IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upwards [20] Policy and Economy - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 0.1 percentage points. Supply and demand both declined, with production down 0.6%, new orders down 0.8%, and new export orders down 0.6%. The inventory of finished products decreased again after a one - month increase. Prices of factory - made goods and major raw material purchases increased for two consecutive months after three months of decline [23] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle (by 1 month to 1 year, with an average of about half a year). PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and has seen a continuous narrowing of the decline since March 2024. The decline of PPI widened again in July, narrowed again since November until it widened for four consecutive months from March 2025, and remained the same as the previous month in July. In May, the revenue of industrial enterprises continued to decline to 2.7%, and the inventory decreased by 3.5%, indicating a possible entry into the active inventory replenishment stage, corresponding to an economic slowdown [25] - In June 2025, the year - on - year increase in social financing was 419.93 billion yuan, compared with 22.46 billion yuan in the previous period. Government bonds increased by 135.48 billion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 236.37 billion yuan, with an year - on - year increase of 17.1 billion yuan, mainly due to an increase of 17 billion yuan in enterprise loans, including an increase of 49 billion yuan in short - term loans and a rebound in medium - and long - term loans [27] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been declining for 25 consecutive months to 6.77% as of June 2025, down from the high of 12.94% in May 2023. The growth rate last month was 6.78%, and the decline rate has slowed down significantly [30] - The implementation plan for promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market aims to increase the actual investment ratio, extend the assessment period, and strengthen the synergy of policies. It is expected to bring additional long - term funds to the A - share market annually, and the second - batch pilot of long - term stock investment by insurance funds will be implemented in the first half of 2025, with a scale of no less than 10 billion yuan [32] - The Politburo meeting emphasized boosting the capital market, promoting the entry of long - term funds, supporting mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and promoting the reform of public funds. It also called for increasing the counter - cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a series of measures such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates [35] - The central bank created new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and a re - loan for stock repurchase and increase. It also carried out MLF operations, reverse repurchase operations, and adjusted interest rates. In addition, a series of measures such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy interest rates, and increasing re - loan quotas were implemented [36][38][40] - The total debt - resolution scale is divided into three parts, with the first two parts directly adding 1 trillion yuan of local debt - resolution funds. After the replacement of implicit debts, the local debt - resolution pressure will be greatly reduced [37] Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - Except for the CSI 500, the year - on - year revenue growth rates of each index in the 2024 annual report declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, the SSE 50 index continued to grow year - on - year, the CSI 300 index had a small increase, and the CSI 500, ChiNext, and Shenzhen Component Indexes declined to varying degrees [47] - In terms of revenue, the revenue growth rates of the Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and CSI 500 indices increased, while those of the CSI 1000, Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, the net profit growth rates of all indices except the Shanghai Composite Index increased significantly [53] - The performance of the entire A - share market shows signs of stabilization, but the 30% increase in tariffs imposed by the US since April may affect the A - share market. In the first quarter of 2025, the performance of IC/IM bottomed out and stabilized, while IH/IF declined year - on - year [57][60] Valuation - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 15.6876, with an upper - bound value of 15.51, and it is at the 78.41 percentile since 2010. The valuation of the ChiNext is still relatively low [66] Capital Flow - From April 7 to August 8, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 34.4 billion yuan, and last week it decreased by 7.3 billion yuan. From January 1 to June 27, 2025, the scale of newly established equity funds increased by 171.3 billion yuan [5][71] - In terms of margin trading, there was a net inflow of 274.8 billion yuan in 2024. As of August 7, 2025, the net inflow in the first five trading days was 27.9 billion yuan, and the net inflow in 2025 was 200.1 billion yuan [79] - In the first quarter of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased significantly by 389.3 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.21%. At the end of 2024, the assets of the national team and insurance funds increased, while the assets of the Hong Kong - Shanghai Stock Connect decreased. Specifically, it was mainly the assets of Central Huijin and insurance funds that increased [75] - As of last weekend, the IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion yuan, 67.3 billion yuan in 2024, and 63.7 billion yuan in 2025 [84] - In the week from August 1 to August 8, 2025, the ETF share increased by 36.368 billion shares (+1.33%), reaching 2780.699 billion shares, and the total scale increased by 65.598 billion yuan (+1.43%), reaching 4658.878 billion yuan [88] - Last week, major shareholders in the secondary market continued to have a net reduction of 5.9 billion yuan [92] - There will be a large amount of restricted - share unlockings in mid - August [93]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of PTA are acceptable, but the external market fluctuates greatly, and the valuation drive is weak, with the technical side showing range - bound fluctuations. The cost of crude oil has been falling continuously, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the range. TA processing fees continue to weaken, and the losses of downstream products have improved. It is recommended to focus on trading in the 4600 - 4800 range of the 2601 contract [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.10%, a decrease of 3.57 percentage points from the previous week and 2.26 percentage points from the same period last year, at a neutral level in the same period. Multiple sets of equipment in the East China region had short - term outages or maintenance, and some enterprises reduced their loads due to efficiency issues, leading to a decrease in the operating rate [4][18] - Last week, PTA production was 136,840 tons, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week and an increase of 1.66% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 14,130 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.61%. With the gradual increase in domestic self - sufficiency, imports are relatively low and can be basically ignored [22] Demand - In July 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 5.9785 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year increase of 8.78%. Last week, the average polyester operating rate was 86.21%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week and 2.08 percentage points from the same period last year, generally at a neutral level in the same period [24] - Last week, the weekly output of the polyester industry was 1.5137 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 10.29%. As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Downstream texturing and terminal weaving factories have a strong cautious and wait - and - see attitude, mainly consuming their previous raw material inventories. The sales data of polyester filament have been in a sluggish state [4][26] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 1.8568 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.90%. From January to June, the cumulative export value of textiles was 143 million US dollars, the same as the same period last year [45] Inventory - According to Longzhong Information statistics, last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 3.7315 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32%. The PTA factory inventory was 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous week and 0.15 days from the same period last year [49] - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 7.3 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous week and a decrease of 0.81 days from the same period last year [51] Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread remained stable from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly from the previous week and was high compared to the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread showed a flat - water structure [11] - The 9 - 1 spread decreased from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year. The basis fluctuated and was weak compared to the same period last year [14] Valuation - The PTA spot processing fee continued to decline from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year [70] - The PTA futures disk processing fee decreased slightly from the previous week and was low compared to the same period last year [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as Russia - US negotiations have recently caused many disturbances, leading to a short - term decline in oil prices. However, the overall good performance of crude oil processing demand and the weak actual production increase of OPEC+ support oil prices. The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side shows an overall upward trend with stable growth [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels to 227.1 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels to 113 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 453,000 barrels [4][20]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and 8 OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production by a cumulative 2.467 million barrels per day from April to September. Since 2022, OPEC+ has cut production by 5.85 million barrels per day, about 5.7% of global supply. The supply side has uncertainties [4][33]. - **Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.5 percentage points to 96.9%. Gasoline demand decreased by 112,000 barrels per day but remained above 9 million barrels per day. In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year, and the demand side is expected to rise steadily [4]. - **View**: Geopolitical factors have led to a short - term decline in oil prices, but good processing demand and weak OPEC+ production increase support oil prices. The supply - side production increase progress needs to be observed, and the demand side is expected to be boosted [4]. - **Strategy**: Buy operations [4] 3.2. Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides detailed data on global crude oil production, consumption, inventory net withdrawals, and end - of - period inventories from 2024 to 2025, including breakdowns by OPEC, non - OPEC, OECD, and non - OECD regions [6]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: It shows the processing flow of crude oil from the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit to various refined products such as ethylene, propylene, diesel, and gasoline [9] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures - Spot Structure**: It presents data on domestic and foreign price differences, monthly price differences, INE crude oil futures - spot price differences, and BRENT crude oil term price differences [11][13][15] - **Freight Index and Port Freight Rates**: It shows the trends of the crude oil transportation index (BDTI), the refined oil transportation index (BCTI), and port freight rates [16] 3.4. Inventory - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: Last week, due to increased exports, US crude oil inventory decreased, and the net import volume also decreased [4][20]. - **China Crude Oil Inventory**: In June, the inventory increment declined because of the increase in domestic crude oil processing demand [25]. - **Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts**: The INE crude oil warehouse receipts have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low inventory level of deliverable oil depots [29] 3.5. Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: In June, OPEC+ daily crude oil production was 41.559 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels from May but lower than the planned increase. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the 8 - country production increase plan from April to September is 2.467 million barrels per day [33]. - **US Production**: Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. The growth space of US shale oil production is limited, and the production may enter a bottleneck period [38]. - **Global Production**: The supply side has uncertainties, including the uncertain OPEC+ production increase process, the impact of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude oil, and the limited growth of US shale oil production [42] 3.6. Demand Side - **China Demand**: In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year. With the boost of travel demand, China's crude oil demand is expected to recover. China's crude oil imports and exports data from January to July 2025 are also provided [49][54][57]. - **US Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased, the capacity utilization rate rose, and gasoline demand remained above 9 million barrels per day. The US is in the driving season, and demand is slightly better than last year [61][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have declined, weakening the cost support for polyolefins. The capacity expansion is significant, with rising operating rates and high production levels, resulting in substantial supply - side pressure. Currently, the downstream operating rates are low, but as the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downstream operating rates are expected to continue rising. Polyolefin supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious driving factors. With positive macro - sentiment, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - For futures trading, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for single - sided futures trading and sell straddle options for options trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 460,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from an upward to a downward trend due to inventory pressure on production enterprises and the intention to actively reduce inventory. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 590,000 tons, a decrease from the current period, as upstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory and there is certain rigid demand downstream [6]. - **Supply**: Market supply is expected to increase as some devices such as those of Yanchang Zhongmei, Wanhua Chemical, and Liaoyang Petrochemical are planned to restart, and only Guoneng Xinjiang has a new planned maintenance device. The next - period total polyethylene output is expected to be 675,100 tons, an increase of 14,900 tons from the current period. China's polypropylene total output is estimated to be 785,000 tons, continuing the upward trend, as some previously maintained devices have gradually resumed operation, and the loss of polypropylene production has decreased [6]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries increased by 0.63%, with relatively little change in demand. Enterprises' operations are stable, and demand may improve in the middle of the month. Short - term orders for functional composite films and e - commerce packaging are being supplemented. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season approaches, it is expected that some terminal industries will start pre - stocking in mid - to late August, and the polypropylene operating rate is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP production have narrowed. Ethylene - based PE production has a slight loss, propylene - based PP production has a slight profit, and the losses of PDH - based PP production have also narrowed. The cost - side support has weakened [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - **Strategy**: Short PP2509 [8]. - **Price and Trend**: It has shown a fluctuating upward trend, reaching 7,075 yuan/ton as of August 7th [8]. - **Logic**: PP has significant new capacity in 2025, and downstream demand remains weak, so its medium - to long - term trend is relatively weak [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [8]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - **Strategy**: Go long on the L - P spread [11]. - **Price and Trend**: It has shown a fluctuating trend. For the 2509 contract, it was 225 yuan/ton as of August 7th [11]. - **Logic**: PP has greater supply pressure, which is conducive to the expansion of the L - P spread [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [11]. 3.4 Supply - Side - **PE Production**: The planned production capacity of PE in 2024 was large, but the actual production capacity put into operation was small. In 2024, the production capacity base was 3.696 million tons, and the actual new production capacity was 105,000 tons, with most devices postponed to 2025. In 2025, the planned new production capacity of PE is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [84][91]. - **PP Production**: In 2024, China's PP production capacity reached about 345,000 tons, with a production capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the global polyolefin production capacity expansion is mainly concentrated in China. The planned new production capacity of PP in 2025 is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profits, the actual production capacity put into operation is limited [90][92]. 3.5 Demand - Side - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries increased by 0.63% this week. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season approaches, it is expected that some terminal industries will start pre - stocking in mid - to late August, and the polypropylene operating rate is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Exports**: There are data on the export volumes of PE and PP, but no in - depth analysis of trends and impacts is provided [120]. - **Plastic Products**: There are data on the production volume of plastic products and the inventory of the rubber and plastic products industry, but no in - depth analysis is provided [126]. - **Terminal Products**: There are data on the monthly year - on - year growth rates of automobile and home appliance production, home appliance export volumes, domestic automobile production, and Chinese automobile exports, but no in - depth analysis is provided [129][135].

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Feed Weekly Report: Brazilian Premiums Rising Continuously, Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Prices May Fluctuate Strongly" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current growth of US soybeans is good, but the rainfall in the eastern part of the Corn Belt and the northern part of the Great Plains in the next two weeks may affect soybean growth [3]. - It is currently the peak season for Brazilian soybean exports, and Brazilian soybean premiums are continuously rising and are currently at a historical high [3]. - Domestic oil mills' purchasing progress for the fourth quarter is still slow, and the market expects a supply gap. This week, there was a large - volume transaction of the far - month basis of soybean meal. The long - term impact of the pig industry's anti - involution on soybean meal demand also needs attention [3]. - Against the background of an expected supply gap of imported soybeans in the domestic market in the fourth quarter, domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - As of August 3, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, which was the same as the market expectation, lower than last week's 70% and last year's 68% [3]. - The Brazilian soybean premium is rising and is at a historical high [3]. - Domestic oil mills' purchasing for the fourth quarter is slow, and there are expectations of a supply gap. The far - month basis of soybean meal had large - volume transactions this week. The long - term impact of the pig industry's anti - involution on soybean meal demand needs attention [3]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the expected supply gap in the fourth quarter [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - For unilateral trading, the support level of soybean meal 2601 can be referenced at 3000. For options, one can go long on volatility [5]. - For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see for now [5]. - In the outlook, factors to watch include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal demand, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly due to market concerns about a shortage of soybeans in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [14]. - The July USDA report was slightly bearish. It lowered the export forecast of US soybeans for the 25/26 season and raised the domestic crushing volume. The reduction in exports was higher than the increase in crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [14]. - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is advisable to wait and see [18]. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is advisable to wait and see [21]. Supply Side - As of July 31, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 467,842 tons [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly US soybean crushing profit was $2.71 per bushel, a 1.88% increase from the previous week and a 19.58% decrease from the same period last year [36]. - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase from June 2024. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand Side - The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig self - breeding and外购 profits, white - feather broiler and laying - hen breeding profits, but no specific demand - related conclusions are drawn [54][63] Inventory - As of August 1, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5559 million tons, a 1.55% increase from last week and a 1.74% decrease from last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a 0.14% decrease from last week and a 26.24% decrease from last year [70]. - As of August 8, the physical inventory days of domestic feed mills' soybean meal were 8.37 days, a 3.77% increase from August 1 and a 14.97% increase from the same period last year [73]. - As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last week. The unexecuted contracts were 46,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from last week [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July and the positive impact of overseas biodiesel policies, domestic oils and fats are expected to show a differentiated short - term trend. Soybean oil is expected to be strong, while rapeseed oil and palm oil may fluctuate repeatedly [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: Weather forecasts indicate less rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains in the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth. The US biodiesel policy is long - term positive for US soybean oil demand, Brazil has raised the biodiesel blending ratio as expected, and the implementation of Indonesia's B40 is going well, all of which are positive for domestic oils and fats [6]. - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%. Reuters survey predicts that the inventory in July will be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; production is expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June. High - frequency data shows increased production and decreased exports in July, and the market expects a high probability of inventory build - up. Attention should be paid to the July MPOB report [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased slightly but remains at a historically high level. The trade relationship between China and Australia has improved, and China may import rapeseed from Australia later, which requires attention [6]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for palm oil 01 be around 8,500, and for soybean oil 01 around 8,000. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Outlook**: Key points to watch include biodiesel policies of various countries, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may show a differentiated short - term trend [8]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Market - Last week, oils and fats fluctuated strongly, mainly due to domestic enterprises exporting soybean oil to India [17]. - The soybean - palm oil spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historical low; the rapeseed - palm oil spread fluctuated weakly; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread fluctuated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for all [20]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: According to the June MPOB report, Malaysia's crude palm oil production in June was 1.6923 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48%; palm oil imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%; palm oil exports were 1.2594 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%; and the ending inventory was 2.0306 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41%. The report is neutral to bearish [33]. - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: As of August 1, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,300 tons, or 2.69%. Year - on - year, it decreased by 8,600 tons, or 0.76% [65]. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: As of August 1, 2025, the rapeseed inventory in major coastal oil mills was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week [68]. - **Domestic palm oil**: As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, or 5.41%. Year - on - year, it increased by 3,400 tons, or 0.59% [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - No specific demand - side analysis content other than showing the volume charts of various oils and fats is provided 3.6 Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.41% and a year - on - year increase of 0.59% [65]. - As of August 1, 2025, coastal major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons (down 21,000 tons from last week), rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons (up 11,000 tons from last week), and unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons (down 6,000 tons from last week) [68]. 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of August 8, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the August shipment was - 204 yuan/ton [73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of uncertain Sino-US trade relations, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. - The key factors to watch include the weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Viewpoints - **US Soybeans**: The growth of US soybeans is currently good based on the excellent - good rate. There is a potential drought risk at the end of July, and the weather in August, the critical growth period, needs close attention. The market is also concerned about whether countries can reach agreements with the US, especially the Sino - US agreement, which is crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [3]. - **South America**: It is currently the peak export season for Brazilian soybeans, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly rebounded [3]. - **Domestic**: In the next two months, the arrival of imported soybeans will continue to increase, the inventory of soybean meal will rise, the pressure on oil mills due to full storage will increase, and the spot basis of soybean meal will be weak [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for soybean meal 2509 be around 2850. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Outlook**: Monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Movement**: Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated with a slightly upward trend due to the expectation of a Sino - US agreement. The July USDA report was neutral to bearish as it lowered the export forecast for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and raised domestic crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [13]. - **Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is fluctuating widely and is currently at a historically low level, so it is recommended to wait and see. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal is fluctuating weakly, and it is also recommended to wait and see [17][20]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [21]. Supply - Side - **US Soybean Sales**: As of July 10, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 271,850 tons [30]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.46 per bushel, with a 1.23% increase from the previous week and an 8.21% decrease compared to the same period last year [36]. - **Chinese Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase compared to June 2024. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand - Side - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig - raising profits, chicken - raising profits, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [54][63]. Inventory - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, a 7.76% increase from the previous week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year [71]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 15,100 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous week [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of domestic coking coal and coke prices and potential supply - side policies may boost market sentiment. Although the absolute value of port inventory is still low, production profit is good, domestic production and operating rate are still high, international methanol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, methanol imports have recovered, downstream profit is poor, downstream demand is under pressure, and inventory has increased. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate. For single - side and option trading, the report suggests range - bound operations and selling straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory reached 35.69 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 1.31%. Port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly [7]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol output is estimated to be around 191.93 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 85.17%. The import sample arrival plan is estimated at 32.60 tons, including 16.70 tons of visible and 15.90 tons of invisible imports, and domestic trade is estimated at 3.5 - 4.0 tons [7]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased. The start - up rate of dimethyl ether remained flat, that of acetic acid increased, while those of formaldehyde and chloride decreased [7]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit showed an inversion of - 43 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 122 yuan/ton, while the downstream profit suffered large losses, with the profit loss of MTO in East China still being large at - 1131 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coal Price**: Some traders are bullish on the traditional coal - using peak season, but the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, short MA509. For PP - 3MA, short the spread. In option trading, sell straddle options [7][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of July 10, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2390 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, the basis relative to the September contract was - 8 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Last week (20250704 - 0710), China's methanol output was 1909928 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77148 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89% [66]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 31.03 tons, including 26.42 tons of foreign vessels and 4.61 tons of domestic trade vessels [71]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity is about 860 tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Overseas, the new methanol capacity is expected to be 505 tons [73][74]. 3.4 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to May, the apparent consumption of methanol was 4577 tons, an increase of 7.6% [78]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Output**: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55% [82]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different traditional downstream products showed different trends, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [83][86]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [90]. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of July 9, 2025, the sample enterprise's pending order volume was 22.12 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29% [98]. - **New Downstream Capacity**: In 2025, the new downstream capacity of methanol is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an estimated new olefin capacity of 236 tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 660 tons. For traditional downstream, the new capacity is mainly in acetic acid and MTBE, with a theoretical new methanol demand of 587 tons [100]. 3.5 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 35.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons or 3.14% [104]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 71.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 tons or 6.71% [107]. - **Port Floating Storage**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: Since mid - February 2025, the national live pig market has been in a stalemate between supply and demand, with prices adjusting narrowly within a range. After the Dragon Boat Festival, due to high - temperature weather, pork consumption entered a slack season, and pig enterprises faced great pressure, leading to a temporary decline in pig prices. The spot price briefly fell below 14 yuan/kg and then rebounded, indicating strong willingness for second - round fattening at low prices. In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. The piglet supply curve may intensify the expected supply pressure in the far - month. If pork consumption does not increase significantly, the upside of pig prices will be limited even in the peak season [7]. - **Strategy and Outlook**: There are still profit expectations for the live pig breeding industry in the second half of the year. However, the epidemic prevention pressure in the breeding end will increase in the third and fourth quarters. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly but the overall reduction will be limited. In July, the supply of the live pig market may continue to increase, and the spot price may continue to run weakly within the range. In the long term, prices are expected to improve. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Semi - annual Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Views**: The live pig market is in a supply - demand stalemate, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. The inventory of reproductive sows is increasing, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to intensify. Most enterprises are in a state of small profits or cost - covering [7]. - **Strategy Views and Outlook**: The profit expectation for the second half of the year exists, but the epidemic prevention pressure increases. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly. The supply in July may increase, and the spot price may run weakly. The futures market depends on market sentiment. The short - term resistance level of the main contract is 14,000, and out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Since mid - February 2025, the live pig market has been in a stalemate, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Futures Spreads**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Standard and Fat Pig Prices**: Recently, the prices of standard and fat pigs have risen simultaneously. The supply of both has decreased, and the demand for second - round fattening has increased, with the price of standard pigs rising more than that of fat pigs, and the spread narrowing [31]. - **Piglet and Binary Sow Prices**: Since mid - May, piglet prices have been falling due to weak commodity pig market, past peak of piglet replenishment, and cautious attitude of retail farmers. In the second half of the year, the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment will weaken, and prices are expected to adjust weakly [35]. - **Culled Sow Prices**: The industry's willingness to actively eliminate production capacity is low. Culled sow prices were driven up by the increase in live pig prices this week and are expected to fluctuate and adjust [38] 3.3 Production Capacity - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. Enterprises' willingness to actively reduce production capacity is weak, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to increase [42]. - **Elimination Volume of Reproductive Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In June, due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the elimination volume may be stable but difficult to decrease [49] 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. In June, due to high - temperature weather and price decline, the inventory is expected to decrease [54]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month. In June, it is expected to increase due to factors such as farmers' willingness to sell [57]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, mainly due to the suspension of piglet replenishment; the inventory of pigs over 140 kg decreased due to farmers' willingness to sell; the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly due to the entry of second - round fattening pigs [60]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs decreased slightly due to farmers' pressure - barring and weight - increasing intentions [63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak. Slaughtering enterprises have a high fresh - sales rate and a low cold - storage rate, indicating cautious attitude towards inventory building. Domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [72]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh - sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate decreased due to weak downstream demand. The demand for frozen products is weak, and there is still passive storage of fresh products, leading to a slight increase in the cold - storage rate [75] - **Substitute Prices**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of Live Pig Breeding and Slaughter**: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode is 75.35 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 14.24 yuan. The average weekly loss of the mode of purchasing piglets has expanded to 58.39 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 4.97 yuan [88]. - **Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.90, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. Next week, it is expected to increase slightly and stabilize [95]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline in second - hand housing prices in all tiers of cities widened, while the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. New housing prices in first - and second - tier cities turned down month - on - month [6]. - The year - on - year decline in the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 1.7%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 3.5% and 4.9% year - on - year respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points [6]. - The year - on - year decline in the sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities was 2.7%, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 6.1% and 6.9% year - on - year respectively, with the decline narrowing [6]. - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [6]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,132.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20,317.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [7]. - From January to May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 19,194.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. - From January to May 2025, the national real estate development investment was 3,623.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from 2022 Q4 to 2025 Q1 were 3%, 4.7%, 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4% respectively [9]. - The contributions of different industries to GDP growth and their year - on - year growth rates in different quarters from 2022 to 2025 are presented in the figures [9][15]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of the added value of major industries in May 2025 are as follows: coal mining and washing increased by 5.5%, oil and gas extraction increased by 5.3%, and the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 11.6% [6]. Major Output of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel from May 2024 to May 2025 is presented in the figure [26]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption in major industries from December 2023 to April 2025 are presented in the figure [34]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to April 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 2,117.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [37]. - The profits of different industries showed different trends. For example, the profit of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 24.5%, while the profit of the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 48.9% [37]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of April 2025, the finished - product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the inventory growth rate decreased slightly [48]. Price Index CPI - In May 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.4%, and non - food prices remained flat [53]. PPI - In May 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month [60].