期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石月报 淡季终端需求拖累，矿价承压运行 20251130 作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 审核：段福林，从业资格号：F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供应：最近一期全球铁矿发运量环比有所回落，2025年11月17日-11月23日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比减少238万吨至 3278.4万吨。其中，澳洲19港发运1804.4万吨，周环比降181 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货橡胶月报 ——需求弱势拖累胶价 20251130 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 审核：段福林，从业资格号:F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 宏观：房地产继续下滑并有加速迹象，有待企稳。国内反内卷。外围美联储降息，资金面利好。但要提防美国衰退溢出。 ◆ 供应：大周期转换提升估值但供应弹性较大。割胶积极性尚可。今年天然橡胶产区物候一般，降雨较多而且泰南11月有洪水，原料相对 坚挺，加工端亏损，基差为近五年最强。但胶水-杯胶价差弱势，暗示供应问题不大，今年全球产量预期增长0.5%，中国进口量预期增长 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Huaxian Futures Macroeconomic Monthly Report - The Downward Trend of the Real Estate Sector Accelerates, Pay Attention to Policy Stimulus at the End of the Year [1] - Author: Shi Shuyu - Date: 2025-11-30 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January to October 2025, the profits and revenues of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, and the profit in October decreased year-on-year. Different industries showed varying degrees of profit changes [8]. - In October 2025, the CPI rose slightly, and is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased [8]. - In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached a new monthly high, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of various industries [10]. - In October 2025, the fiscal revenue increased year-on-year, while the fiscal expenditure decreased year-on-year, with significant declines in some expenditure items [10]. - In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline [10]. - From January to October 2025, the decline in fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) expanded, and the decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (previous value 3.2%); the operating revenue was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (previous value 2.4%). In October, the profit decreased by 5.5% year-on-year[8]. - **CPI**: In October 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, non - food prices increased by 0.9%, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.8%. From January to October, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year[8]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electricity consumption was 8624.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%[10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative general fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the general fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. From January to October, the cumulative general fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the general fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.78%[10]. - **Real Estate Market**: In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline[10]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened[13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - The report presents the quarterly year - on - year growth rates of GDP and its various components from 2023 to 2025, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, and services[16]. - It also shows the contribution rates of various industries to GDP and the pulling effects on GDP growth[21]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Growth**: The growth rate of industrial added value of industries above designated size showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, such as coal mining and non - metallic mineral products industries showing varying performances[32]. - **Industrial Output**: The report provides the production data of major industrial products from 2024 to 2025, such as crude oil, coal, and steel[34]. - **Industry Electricity Consumption**: The electricity consumption of different industries showed different growth trends. Some industries, such as the textile and clothing industry, had relatively high growth rates in electricity consumption[43]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline[46]. - **Industrial Enterprise Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8%. The inventory situation of different industries also varied[58]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Different CPI components showed different price changes, such as food prices decreasing and non - food prices increasing[64]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the national PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed compared with the previous month. The prices of production materials and living materials also showed different changes[71].

Report Title - "Hualian Futures PVC Monthly Report: Weak Reality, Strong Expectations, Focus on Bottom Support" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - 11 - month PVC futures main contract continued to fall to a new low this year, with a four - consecutive - month decline on the monthly line, approaching the historical low since the futures listing. The overall situation of the commodity sector was weak, but there was a rebound at the end of the month due to low - level valuation repair and short - position reduction [9]. - Supply increased in November, with expected production of 213.54 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate was expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In December, regular maintenance will further decrease [9]. - Demand entered the traditional off - season in November, with the overall downstream operating rate at 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. Exports showed different trends, with PVC powder exports increasing and PVC flooring material exports decreasing. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports [9]. - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. Futures registered warrants decreased from the high level [9]. - From the raw material side, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene remained weakly stable, with insufficient valuation drive, but the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali continued to decline. The supply - demand situation maintained a weak reality and strong expectations. Externally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased again, and risk assets performed well. Technically, PVC bottom - rebounded and broke through short - term moving averages, gradually stabilizing [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy Market Review - In November, the PVC futures main contract continued to fall to a new low this year, with a four - consecutive - month decline on the monthly line, approaching the historical low since the futures listing. It fell in the first and middle of the month and rebounded in the late of the month. The decline was driven by weak supply - demand, increased supply, off - season domestic demand, insufficient valuation drive, and a volatile external macro - environment. The rebound at the end of the month was due to low - level valuation repair and short - position reduction [9]. Supply - As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 2.902 billion tons. In 2025, the cumulative production from January to November is expected to be 2.0245 billion tons, a 4.38% year - on - year increase. In November, the expected production is 213,540 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate in November is expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In December, regular maintenance will decrease due to the cold weather in the north [9][24]. Demand - In November, the overall downstream operating rate was 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. It entered the traditional off - season, and construction in the north was restricted. From January to October, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.2337 million tons, a 48.88% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative export of PVC flooring materials was 3.46 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year decrease. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports [9]. Inventory - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. Futures registered warrants decreased from the high level [9]. Viewpoint - From the raw material side, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene remained weakly stable, with insufficient valuation drive, but the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali continued to decline. The supply - demand situation maintained a weak reality and strong expectations. Externally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased again, and risk assets performed well. Technically, PVC bottom - rebounded and broke through short - term moving averages, gradually stabilizing [9]. Strategy - Aggressive investors can refer to the medium - term long - position plan for the V2605 contract, while conservative investors can buy put options for protection [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Not elaborated in detail in the report 3. Spot - Futures Market - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC futures first decreased and then increased in November, and the 5 - 9 spread weakened. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintained a contango pattern, indicating weak reality and strong expectations. The 9 - 1 spread first increased and then decreased, and the basis of the main contract weakly sorted and slightly rebounded, with the futures in a slight contango [17][19]. 4. Supply Side Production Capacity and Output - The effective PVC production capacity is 2.902 billion tons. In 2025, the cumulative production from January to November is expected to be 2.0245 billion tons, a 4.38% year - on - year increase. In November, the expected production is 213,540 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase [24]. - The effective calcium - carbide - method production capacity is 2.025 billion tons, accounting for about 69.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 1.475 billion tons, a 1.86% year - on - year increase. In October, the production was 146,690 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month increase but a 0.83% year - on - year decrease [27]. - The effective ethylene - method production capacity is 877 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 549.52 million tons, an 11.25% year - on - year increase. In October, the production was 66,120 tons, an 11.78% month - on - month increase and a 23.17% year - on - year increase [31]. Operating Rate and Maintenance - The average operating rate of PVC in November is expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The loss due to maintenance in November was about 20,900 tons. In December, regular maintenance is expected to be 208 tons. The operating rate of the calcium - carbide - method increased in November, while that of the ethylene - method decreased due to maintenance in some plants [35][38]. 5. Demand Side Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio - From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.71945 million tons, a 1.72% year - on - year decrease. The sales - to - production ratio in November fluctuated downward [48]. Downstream Operating Rate - In November, the overall downstream operating rate was 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The average operating rate of pipe enterprises was 39%, a 0.15 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 2.16 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The operating rate of profile enterprises was 36%, a 4.5 - percentage - point month - on - month increase but a 2.95 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of soft - product enterprises was 71%, a 0.61 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease [52][55]. Exports - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.2337 million tons, a 48.88% year - on - year increase, mainly sold to India, Vietnam, and the UAE. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports. The cumulative export of PVC flooring materials was 3.46 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year decrease, mainly sold to Europe and the United States [59][61]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year, and the commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year. In October, the single - month year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 11.7%, a further decline from - 8.1% in September [64]. 6. Inventory - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. The enterprise inventory increased by 3.07% month - on - month, and the futures registered warrants first increased and then decreased, still at the highest level in the same period [69][73]. 7. Valuation Raw Material Prices - In November, the price of semi - coke rebounded but was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The price of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly downward and was at the weakest level in the same period. The price of ethylene fluctuated slightly downward and was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable and at the weakest level in the same period [79][82]. Product Profits - In November, the loss of calcium - carbide - method PVC continued to expand, and the loss of ethylene - method PVC was also large, still at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and significantly decreased year - on - year [90][94].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai Tin (SHFE Tin) showed an overall oscillatory trend. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation in futures prices and basis during the period [11]. - Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August totaled 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, remaining stable. The resumption of mining production in Myanmar has repeatedly affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in October, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the interference of the ore end [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. generally maintains an upward trend. Overseas uncertainties are still high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The ore end situation is unstable. In terms of operation, those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions, and conduct light - position long - biased trading, with the weekly support level around 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE Tin oscillated last week. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little change in futures prices and basis [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year, expected to recover in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August was 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of mining in Myanmar affected price points [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will be adjusted. The tariff adjustment on US - originated goods and the decline in China's October PMI are also factors [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are declining, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to supply shortages, domestic economic resilience, and overseas uncertainties, heavy - position holders can reduce positions, conduct light - position long - biased trading with a support level of 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mining disturbances, Indonesian export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors Analysis**: Production has a neutral impact as the ore supply is expected to ease; downstream demand is bullish as the industry demand outlook is positive; inventory is bullish due to inventory depletion; imports and exports are neutral with stable net exports; market sentiment is bearish; cost and profit are neutral with low processing fees; and the macro - environment is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no specific analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,865 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week. As of November 5, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,975 tons, also increasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 31, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 7,698 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of November 6, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan's refined ore was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton, continuing to be weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin production was 9,770 tons, significantly decreasing month - on - month due to major factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal supply in October. Domestic tin ore production in August was 6,854.21 tons, increasing slightly month - on - month [40]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [47]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer production was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [51]. - In October 2025, China's PVC production was 2.1281 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [54]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In September 2025, China's refrigerator production was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [58]. - In September 2025, China's washing - machine production was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, China's color TV production was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [62]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy production was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In September 2025, China's integrated circuit production was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [66]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [71]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing China's and overseas production, global supply, China's and overseas demand, and global supply - demand balance. For example, in 2025E, China's production is expected to be 184,500 tons, overseas production 185,000 tons, global supply 369,500 tons, China's demand 193,000 tons, overseas demand 186,000 tons, and the global supply - demand balance is - 9,500 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is under significant supply pressure, with high domestic开工率 and production, and continuously high import volumes. The demand is weak, with most downstream industries'开工率 showing a continuous decline. Port methanol inventory is at an extremely high level, with tight tank capacity and rising floating storage. As a result, the methanol price may continue to seek support downward. Key factors to monitor include domestic port inventory and the operation of MTO devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy - For unilateral and options trading, adopt a bearish strategy. In options trading, sell call options [7]. - MA unilateral strategy: Short MA509. The price is under pressure and falling. As of November 06, the price of MA601 was 2,125 yuan/ton. The logic is high domestic production, record - high imports, average demand, and extremely high port inventory, leading to a bearish operation recommendation [11]. - PP - 3MA strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread. The spread is in a rebound trend. As of November 06, the spread of the January contract was 96 yuan/ton. The logic is that the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol, and MTO profit is under pressure. However, in the short term, methanol is bearish due to extremely high inventory. The operation recommendation is to short on rallies and wait and see for now [14]. 3.2 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview 3.2.1 Supply - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,400 tons or 2.75%. The overall inventory shows a slight downward trend in some areas, but port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 tons or 0.70% [8][111][113]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: In November, the weekly data of China's methanol production is expected to be around 2,008,400 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.51%, an increase from the current period. From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,860 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36% [8][69]. - Imports: The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 436,100 tons, including 368,100 tons of visible imports and 68,000 tons of non - visible imports. From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels (232,000 tons of visible and 113,800 tons of non - visible) and 41,200 tons of domestic trade vessels [8][76]. - New Capacity in 2025: China's new methanol capacity in 2025 is about 8.6 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Most of the new devices are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [78][79]. 3.2.2 Demand - MTO Industry: The MTO industry's开工率 is 90.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, the load of Shandong Luxi was at a low level, and the load of Xinjiang Hengyou increased. After the offset, the olefin industry's开工 continued to decline this week [86]. - Traditional Downstream Industries: The traditional demand is poor, and the开工率 is low. The开工率 of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and chloride industries is expected to rise, while the开工 rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat [8][89]. - Downstream Procurement and Orders: As of November 5, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% [105]. - New Downstream Capacity: In 2025, there are new production capacities in various downstream industries such as methane chloride, glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and others [107]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Spot Price and Basis: As of November 06, the spot price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,080 yuan/ton, and the basis relative to the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton [18]. - Domestic Spread and Freight: Data on the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia and the spread and freight between Inner Mongolia and Dongying are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [19]. - International Methanol and Natural Gas Price: Data on international methanol prices (including Southeast Asia CFR, China CFR, and Rotterdam FOB) and international natural gas prices (including European and Henry Hub) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [23][25]. - Inter - contract Spread: Data on the spread between methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [27][30]. - Related Product Ratio: Data on the ratio of methanol to urea and methanol to liquefied gas (based on the main contracts) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [34]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Profit - Import Profit: The import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Coal - based Methanol Production Profit: The loss of coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia has widened, currently at - 227 yuan/ton [8]. - Downstream Profit: The downstream profit is in a large loss. The profit of East China MTO remains in a loss, currently at - 808 yuan/ton [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The adjustment of tariff measures on US - imported goods and China's October official manufacturing PMI data were released. Domestically, the economy is resilient with rising prosperity in new energy and semiconductors, while overseas uncertainties remain high with a high - probability of future interest rate cuts. [6] - In terms of supply, RKAB approval in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but new policy risks still exist. In September, China's nickel imports were large, nickel - iron production was low in China and high in Indonesia. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and production increased slightly in September. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production declined from a high level. [6] - Regarding demand, stainless - steel production improved in September and is expected to have a mild rebound in October. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, and the inventory increased after a decrease. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September. [6] - In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory all increased slightly last week. [6] - In the short term, the RKAB approval in 2025 provides raw material security, but new policy risks remain. Trade disputes affect market sentiment. Fundamentally, imported nickel remains at a high level, inventory is increasing, and Indonesian policies may affect supply but have not had an actual impact yet. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory have marginally improved, and nickel prices will generally fluctuate within a range. [6] Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoint: After considering supply, demand, and inventory factors, nickel prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to changes in the mining end, stainless - steel production, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports in the future [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream applications in stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report mentions the LME nickel premium and discount and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. 4. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 21.7% year - on - year to 36.5763 million tons due to significant nickel - iron production cuts. In August - September 2025, imports increased seasonally, reaching 6.3467 million and 6.1144 million tons respectively [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron production was 1.5138 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, production was 156,500 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron production was 296,400 tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, production was 21,700 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level [21]. - In August - September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, pure - nickel supply expanded in 2024. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production was 33,240 tons, a decline from a high level. In July - August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 2.786 million tons, at a high level, and exports were 170,000 tons, with a slight month - on - month decline [31]. 5. Intermediates Wet - Process Intermediates - In September 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. High - Grade Nickel Matte - Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In August - September 2025, production was 20,300 and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there will be more planned intermediate - product capacities from 2025 - 2027 [43]. Nickel Sulfate - In September 2025, China's nickel sulfate production was 39,045.4 tons, a month - on - month increase. In August - September 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 30,292 and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 6. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless - steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after a decline from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,549 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase [52]. Cathode - Material Demand - In terms of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. Driven by the trade - in policy, the total terminal demand is expected to continue growing in 2025. In September 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 7. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 48,746 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [64]. - As of November 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 32,689 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [68].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - Due to supply constraints, it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend. The strategy is to continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase for the fifth consecutive month. The US government shutdown led to the non - release of the October non - farm payroll data. Economists expect a 60,000 decrease in non - farm employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [5]. - **Supply**: Bauxite mining in northern China has not resumed. Some alumina plants in the region have reduced their operations. A large alumina enterprise in Hebei shut down 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and plans to resume gradually on October 31. Alumina inventory is continuously accumulating, while the operating rate and supply of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable [5]. - **Demand**: Recent electrolytic aluminum consumption has been generally good. The automobile industry is relatively prosperous, and the power grid - related orders are expected to be released rapidly. Overall, domestic demand is expected to continue to improve [5]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME aluminum futures inventory increased slightly, while domestic social inventory continued to decline slightly and is expected to continue to decrease [5]. - **View**: Supply disturbances have not changed the weak fundamentals of alumina. Due to supply constraints, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend [5]. - **Strategy**: Continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Graphs of domestic aluminum spot and futures prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premium and discount, LME aluminum price trends, and China's aluminum ingot import profit are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][13]. 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In September 2025, China imported 1,588 million tons of bauxite, a 38.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the import volume was 15,731 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. In 2024, China imported 15,876.7 million tons of bauxite, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea and Australia are the main sources. In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a 2.32% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4,574.32 million tons, with a significant slowdown in production growth. Recent domestic bauxite port inventory has decreased [20][25]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 799.9 million tons, an 8.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 6,856.0 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China exported 200 million tons of alumina, a 61.8% year - on - year increase, with 25 million tons in September, an 82.2% year - on - year increase. As of September 2025, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity reached 11,032 million tons, an increase of 630 million tons from the end of last year. More new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to Q1 2026. In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity release, and there are still many projects to be put into operation in 2026 and later. Overseas, there were approximately 500 million tons of new production capacity put into operation, and at least 870 million tons of new production capacity are expected in 2026 [34][35][38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5 million tons; the operating capacity was 4,444.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 92 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 99.41%, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In September 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a 0.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the global primary aluminum production was 55.113 million tons. In September 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.81 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 33.97 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 246,800 tons of primary aluminum, a 14.36% month - on - month increase and an 80.07% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 1.9618 million tons. As of November 6, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 550,500 tons, and China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 607,000 tons [42][53][62]. 4. Primary Processing and End - Market - **Alloy Ingot**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 177,600 tons, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 1.4116 million tons, a 15.9% year - on - year increase [68]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, China's aluminum product production was 590,000 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4.9768 million tons, the same as the previous year [71]. - **Aluminum Import and Export**: In September 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, a 35.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 3.01 million tons, a 5.7% year - on - year increase. In September, the export volume was 520,000 tons, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 4.52 million tons, an 8.1% year - on - year decrease [78]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report presents graphs of global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecast, global photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecast, global new energy vehicle sales forecast, China's real estate market situation, China's new energy vehicle production, and power engineering investment, but no specific analysis is provided [81][87][92]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum supply - demand balance tables from 2021 to 2027. In 2025, overseas alumina had 6.6 million tons of new production capacity (including restarted capacity), with 4 million tons of newly invested capacity. The net increase in production capacity in 2025 was 4.02 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, the global market will maintain a tight - balance situation, with a slight shortage overseas and a slight surplus in China [103][104][105]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content is provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of copper ore remains tight, with the copper concentrate processing fee TC at a deeply negative level. The market generally expects the final result of the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee negotiation to be significantly lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $21.25 per dry ton, and it may approach zero, with individual negotiations possibly resulting in negative values. - In November, the number of smelters scheduled for maintenance decreased to 5, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an estimated impact on production of 48,000 tons. Due to the pressure on raw materials being transmitted to the domestic smelting sector, along with negative copper processing fees and falling by - product prices, smelter profits are significantly pressured, and it is expected that the electrolytic copper output in November will decline month - on - month. - Although the previous period was the traditional peak season, high copper prices have to some extent suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. However, the demand side has strong resilience, and terminal demands such as power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. As the issue of supply shortages becomes a consensus, the downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is gradually increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand fundamentals provide solid support for the price center. - The strategy is to continue to focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase, with imports having increased for 5 consecutive months. The US government shutdown set a record for the longest duration, and many important economic indicators lacked official data. According to economists' estimates, if the number of non - agricultural employment in October decreased by 60,000, the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% [9] - **Supply**: Copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee TC is deeply negative. It is expected that the 2026 long - term processing fee will be much lower than that in 2025. In November, 5 smelters are scheduled for maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. It is expected that November's electrolytic copper output will decline month - on - month [9] - **Demand**: High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, but demand has resilience, and power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. The downstream's acceptance of high prices is increasing [9] - **Inventory**: LME copper futures inventory decreased slightly, while domestic social inventory slowly increased due to the suppression of high - price copper on downstream purchases [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets No specific analysis content provided, only figure names such as "Domestic Futures and Spot Prices", "Shanghai Flat - water Copper Premiums and Discounts", "LME Copper 3 - Month Forward Price", and "Shanghai - London Ratio" are mentioned [14][17] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution**: Global copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia, and Mexico. Chile has the largest copper reserves, accounting for 21.3%, while China's copper resources are relatively scarce, accounting for only 3% [23] - **Global Copper Capital Expenditure**: Long - term capital expenditure suppresses incremental supply. Old mines have declining grades and rising geopolitical risks, making stable production difficult. Optimistically, the global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 560,000, 1.28 million, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. Under neutral conditions, the supply growth rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are about 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [24] - **Copper Concentrate**: As of November 7, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $42.00 per dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was $2,859 per dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate output was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [29] - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: In 2023, major copper - producing countries included Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru, etc. In 2024, the global copper mine production capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a 3.78% increase year - on - year, but the capacity utilization rate decreased from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [23][36] - **Copper Concentrate Imports and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 22.634 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. In the 45th week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 498,000 tons [39] - **Global Copper Supply - Demand and China's Smelting Break - even**: The global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is expected to show different situations in different years. China's electrolytic copper production and import data in 2024 and 2025 are also provided [41][46] - **International and Domestic Copper Inventories**: As of November 6, 2025, the LME inventory was 134,000 tons, and the New York market copper inventory reached 369,400 tons. The domestic social inventory was 202,600 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [59][60][63] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the cumulative imports were 4.019 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [69][73] - **Terminal Market - Power**: The national power grid project investment was 437.8 billion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year increase [77] - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [81] - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, a 13.3% and 12.9% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million vehicles respectively, a 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 46.1%. The total copper consumption of new energy vehicles and charging piles is expected to increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [85][88] - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In September 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 18.095 million units, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative output was 216.571 million units, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China exported 366.563 million home appliances, and from January to September, the cumulative exports were 3.359991 billion units, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [92] - **Terminal Market - New Energy**: As of the end of September, the national solar power generation installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a 45.7% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a 21.3% year - on - year increase [96] - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is expected to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is estimated that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the construction demand [100] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024. It is expected to be slightly in short supply in 2026 and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of China's electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [107] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content provided.

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货生猪周报 二育减量明显 猪价僵持 20251109 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 u 展望：政策面虽持续释放积极信号，但实际产能去化不及预期，市场情绪转弱。本轮期现货共振下跌的行情并非单一因素主导，而 是产能长期过剩、政策调控落地滞后与消费疲软的三重压力叠加所致，目前行业正面临短期价格承压与长期产能出清的关键博弈期。 当前生猪产能依旧过剩，下游需求端疲软，二育短期的入场行为对猪价仅能起到"缓冲作用" ，无法扭转全国生猪市场供增需弱的 格局，养殖端整体进入全面亏损状态，市场情绪偏弱，短期生猪现货行情或延续弱势震荡，期货盘面震荡下跌修复基差。中期来看， 年底天气转冷后，终端对大体重猪的需求会有所增加，同时，南方地区腌腊、灌肠等传统消费需求逐步启动，或对行情形成阶段性 提振。但近年来传统意义上的生猪消费旺季均未能兑现，今年旺季不旺或已 ...