农产品日报 | 2025-09-12 糖价低位盘整，郑棉依旧承压 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13835元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15186元/吨，较前一日变动-24元/吨，现货基差CF01+1351，较前一日变动-4；3128B棉全国均价15249元/吨， 较前一日变动-37元/吨，现货基差CF01+1414，较前一日变动-17。 近期市场资讯，8月巴西棉出口量为7.7万吨，环比（12.7万吨）减少39.0%，同比（11.2万吨）减少30.7%，是自2023 年7月以来最低月度出口量。出口量减少主要因巴西主产棉区马托格罗索州采摘延迟，直至近日该地区采摘进度仍 持续落后于往年同期水平。预计未来几个月，出口量将明显回升。从当月出口目的地看，巴基斯坦为主要出口目 的地，出口量占总量的22%；孟加拉位居第二，占比18%；中国排第三，占比14%。另有出口至越南，占比12%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡。国际方面，印度延长暂免关税时间，对美棉起到一定支撑作用。8月USDA大幅下调全球 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply side: Wanhua Penglai restarted, Hebei Haiwei has a restart expectation, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed to the middle and late ten - days, Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued until the end of the month, and the external supply of propylene in Shandong tightened. In the East China region, the PDH units of Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa continued to stop, and the overall propylene start - up decreased month - on - month, supporting the continuous increase of propylene spot prices [2] - Demand side: The current high price of propylene has significantly narrowed the profits of downstream industries, and the overall start - up has decreased month - on - month. Among them, the start - up of PP decreased significantly month - on - month, the profits of butanol and octanol were acceptable, and the start - up increased month - on - month. The start - up of acrylic acid increased the most due to the restart of Wanhua's unit. The start - up of phenol - acetone decreased significantly due to the maintenance of Shenghong and Longjiang Chemical's units. Overall, the increase in propylene spot prices has compressed downstream profits, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries has weakened, which may continue to suppress the upward space of propylene [2] - Cost side: OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, but the geopolitical situation is still volatile, and oil prices are rising in a volatile manner. The price of external propane has been firm recently, and the cost support for propylene is acceptable [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes charts of propylene's main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The report includes charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][24][31] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes charts of the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The report includes charts of the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][47][56][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report includes charts of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon, short - term range operation for polysilicon [3][11] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's spot price follows the futures price with a slight increase, and the inventory remains flat. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the market may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, and the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on dips [3][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,715 yuan/ton and closed at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 287,771 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,093 lots, an increase of 48 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in many regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon was also slightly adjusted up [1] - As of September 11, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 539,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 119,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 420,000 tons, unchanged from last week [1] - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. After two weeks of low - level stability, downstream enterprises completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories have a stronger willingness to support prices [2] Strategy - The spot price follows the futures price with a slight increase, and the inventory remains flat. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there are policies, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures was strong, opening at 53,200 yuan/ton and closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the previous day. The position was 136,326 lots, and the trading volume was 278,296 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons, up 3.79% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW, down 1.78% month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,200 tons, up 3.31% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 13.88GW, up 0.73% month - on - month [7] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [7][8] Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously followed up. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on dips [9] Factors to Watch - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, factors to watch include the resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in the operating rate of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [6][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the soybean meal industry: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn industry: Cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current growth of US soybeans is good, with a high excellent and good rate. The field survey by Profarmer for the new - season yield is optimistic, but the USDA's adjustment of new - season US soybeans needs continuous attention. In China, the soybean arrival volume is still high, the supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news has been frequent this month, and the expected improvement of trade policies will put pressure on Brazilian premiums, weakening the support for soybean meal prices. Attention should be paid to the new - season US soybean production and policy changes [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is relatively abundant as new - season grain sources are concentrated in the market, and the remaining old grain of traders is limited. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have relatively low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and a variety of substitute grains. Attention should be paid to the listing dynamics of new - season corn [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3088 yuan/ton yesterday, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+1.34%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 - 58, down 32 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 118, down 12 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 118, down 12 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 113, down 14 from the previous day [1] - Market Information: On September 10, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina said that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares compared with the previous year [1] Market Analysis - The growth of US soybeans is good, and the new - season yield is expected to be high. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. Policy changes may affect the price of soybean meal [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2202 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.23%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2477 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 108, down 5 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 123, up 11 from the previous day [3] - Market Information: On September 10, the Rosario Grain Exchange said that if the rainfall is normal during the growth period, the corn production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season may reach a record high of 61 million tons, and the production forecast for the 2024/25 season was raised to 50 million tons. Brazil's corn export in August was slower than last year. From September 1 - 5, the export volume was 1.3 million tons, and the daily average export volume from September so far was 259,489 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%. The export value reached 260 million US dollars, and the average export price was 199.4 US dollars/ton, a 2.5% increase from the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the supply of corn is relatively abundant as new - season grain sources enter the market. The demand side shows different situations for deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises, and attention should be paid to the listing of new - season corn [4] Strategy - Adopt a cautiously bearish strategy [5]

甲醇日报 | 2025-09-12 港口库存持续累积，MTO等待复工 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润818元/吨（-5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2123元/吨（-5），内蒙北线基差336元/吨（+15），内蒙南线2120元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2388元/吨（-8），鲁 南基差201元/吨（+13）；河南2255元/吨（-35），河南基差68元/吨（-15）；河北2305元/吨（+0），河北基差178元/ 吨（+20）。隆众内地工厂库存342560吨（-4523），西北工厂库存221300吨（-3700）；隆众内地工厂待发订单250723 吨（+9438），西北工厂待发订单136600吨（+3400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2285元/吨（-10），太仓基差-102元/吨（+10），CFR中国264美元/吨（+2），华东进口价差-11 元/吨（+3），常州甲醇2485元/吨；广东甲醇2282元/吨（-8），广东基差-105元/吨（+12）。隆众港口总库存1550330 吨（+122675），江苏港口库存804000吨（+44000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, and attention should be paid to Maersk's price offer in the first week of October next week [1]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to decline, and the uncertainty lies in the second half of October [6][7]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists for the 12 - month contract. Recently, the expectation of price increase in November can be speculated on, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline [8]. - The main contract is oscillating weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 38 is 1055/1770, and in week 39 it is 950/1590. HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of September and the first half of October is 935/1535. Maersk's PSS for the Far East - Nordic region drops to 50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched an attack on Hamas' senior political leaders in Doha, Qatar, which further escalated the conflict. Qatar condemned the attack, stating that it blatantly violated international law [3]. 3.2 Static Supply - As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 873,200 TEU, and 9 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 194,840 TEU have been delivered. From 2025 - 2028, there is still significant supply - side pressure, especially in 2027, 2028, and 2029 when the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU exceeds 35 [4]. 3.3 Dynamic Supply - MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. In September, there were 4 blank sailings and 0 TBNs, while in October, there were 10 blank sailings and 6 TBNs. HPL has announced two additional ships for October, which may put pressure on the spot price in October [5]. 3.4 Contracts Analysis - **10 - Month Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to decline. The normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. The current market price center in the first half of October is around 1600 US dollars/FEU, and there is a possibility of further decline. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. If the price increase is successful in the second half of October, the optimistic valuation ceiling of the 10 - month contract may be around 1200 points; otherwise, it may be lower than 1100 points [6][7]. - **12 - Month Contract**: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies may adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline, and if ships from the US line are transferred to the European line, it may put pressure on European line prices [8]. 3.5 Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract is oscillating weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract [10]. 3.6 Futures and Spot Prices - As of September 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 83,647 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 45,107 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also given [9].

国债期货日报 | 2025-09-12 股债跷跷板钝化，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩 大有效投资。（2）通胀：8月CPI同比下降0.4%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年上半年，全国财政运行总体平稳，支出扩张力度加大、收支结构持续优化。一般公共 预算收入达11.56万亿元，同比微降0.3%，其中税收收入占比超八成，尽管总体下降1.2%，但增值税、消费税、个 税等主要税种保持增长，显示税源恢复态势逐步确立。支出方面，一般公共预算支出14.13万亿元，同比增长3.4%， 聚焦社会保障、教育、科技、卫生等民生 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report uses satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and historical yield models to estimate the yields of key global agricultural products in August 2025 and monitor their growth. The estimated yields of key monitored crops have increased to varying degrees. - La Niña is expected to appear in September, with a weak intensity and lasting until January 2026, with a probability of 50%-60%. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned negative, which together promotes more precipitation in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to form a long-term drought. - The weather in South America is less affected by La Niña. Periodic droughts may affect southern Brazil and northern Argentina, but the rhythm is earlier than in 2024, and the overall intensity is similar [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Varieties, Time Window, and Method**: The monitoring cycle covers the growth period of crops in the Northern Hemisphere in August 2025. The monitored varieties include US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil. The time - cycle spans 20 years from 2005 to 2025, using current and historical data. The monitoring uses 24 key indicators from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, and a self - built yield model based on a deep - learning algorithm [6][7][12]. - **Yield Estimation Results**: Overall, the growth and development of key crops in each region are in good condition, and the yields are generally on the rise. The US soybean and corn regions are likely to set historical records. Cotton yields have increased compared to the previous month. Canadian rapeseed yields are expected to reach 2.27 tons per hectare, and Australian rapeseed yields have been raised to 1.79 tons per hectare [13]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Malaysian and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra have increased, while those in Kalimantan have declined. Only precipitation in the Malay Peninsula has increased, and temperature and humidity have fluctuated moderately [16][19]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices in most states have increased significantly. The growth of soybeans and corn in the Midwest has reached a new high, and the eastern region is also above the historical average. Precipitation shows regional differentiation, and soil humidity in most states has increased significantly. Temperature fluctuations are moderate [25][30][31]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices show a differentiated trend, with Oklahoma showing overall growth and the southeast experiencing a decline in LAI. Precipitation varies greatly, and soil humidity fluctuates slightly. Temperatures in the southeast have decreased, while those in Oklahoma and Texas have slightly increased [40][41][45]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: No detailed content provided in the report. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: No detailed content provided in the report. Analysis of the Trends of La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Second Half of the Year - La Niña is expected to appear in September, with a weak intensity and lasting until January 2026, with a probability of 50% - 60%. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned negative, which together promotes more precipitation in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to form a long - term drought [2]. Analysis of the Future Weather Trends in South America - The weather in South America is less affected by La Niña. Periodic droughts may affect southern Brazil and northern Argentina, but the rhythm is earlier than in 2024, and the overall intensity is similar [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On September 10, 2025, the trading volumes of various index options were as follows: 1.0867 million contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 1.2034 million contracts for SSE CSI 300 ETF options, 1.6179 million contracts for SSE CSI 500 ETF options, 0.1152 million contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 2.2872 million contracts for ChiNext ETF options, 0.034 million contracts for SSE 50 index options, 0.1289 million contracts for CSI 300 index options, and 0.3011 million contracts for CSI 1000 index options [1]. - The detailed trading volumes including call and put options are presented in Table 1. For example, the call and put trading volumes of SSE 50 ETF options were 0.4827 million and 0.4762 million contracts respectively, with a total of 0.9589 million contracts [21]. II. Option PCR - The PCR values of various index options and their环比 changes are as follows: For SSE 50 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.68 (环比 change -0.11), and the open - interest PCR was 0.85 (环比 change +0.02); for SSE CSI 300 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.67 (环比 change -0.02), and the open - interest PCR was 1.12 (环比 change +0.03); etc. [2][36]. III. Option VIX - The VIX values of various index options and their环比 changes are as follows: The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 17.49% (环比 change -0.98%); the VIX of SSE CSI 300 ETF options was 18.06% (环比 change -0.79%); etc. [3][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The LPG market's sentiment has marginally improved recently. With the stabilization and rebound of crude oil prices, the outer - market price has continued to rise. The domestic civil LPG spot price was generally stable, with a decline in Shandong. The LPG market currently has support but limited upward drivers. The near - term fundamentals are acceptable, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is still weak. Notably, there are signs of a significant increase in Middle - East LPG exports [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 10, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market 4,480 - 4,560 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3,940 - 4,250 yuan/ton; North China market 4,300 - 4,650 yuan/ton; East China market 4,450 - 4,620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market 4,560 - 4,850 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4,580 - 4,750 yuan/ton; South China market 4,498 - 4,730 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were: propane at 605 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,733 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton); butane at 585 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,577 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton). In South China, propane was at 598 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,678 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton); butane was at 578 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,522 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to Kpler shipping schedule data, the Middle - East LPG shipments in September are expected to be 4.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 640,000 tons. However, the destination of 1.5 million tons of shipments is not clear and requires continuous attention [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. There are opportunities to go long on the PG main contract at low prices, but the expected upside is limited. No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Figures - There are 18 figures in the report, including those showing the spot prices of civil LPG and ether - post carbon four in different regions, as well as the closing prices, month - on - month spreads, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts [3].