1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the game points of Treasury bond futures are concentrated on the dual disturbances of risk preference and capital. The stock - bond seesaw effect dominates the market rhythm. The recovery of risk preference suppresses the bond market, and the rise of long - term interest rates pushes down the bond futures prices. The government bond tax payment peak and cross - month factors cause concerns about capital tightness, further suppressing the long sentiment of bond futures. However, the current domestic economic recovery momentum is still weak, so the monetary policy maintains a supportive stance and the liquidity environment is generally loose [3]. - In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate under the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations. Future policy tones and external disturbances will dominate the direction of the market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.65, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.16 (-0.17%); the offshore US dollar against the RMB is 7.1564, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.012 (-0.17%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.23 (-13.22%); DR007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.37 (-19.32%); R007 is 1.64, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 (-6.66%); the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.57, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-1.02%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.07, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-1.02%) [9]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On July 1, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 106.21 yuan, 109.01 yuan, and 120.74 yuan respectively, with price changes of -0.01%, 0.06%, 0.10%, and 0.28% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was -0.011 yuan, -0.048 yuan, -0.029 yuan, and -0.017 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Capital - On July 1, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.367%, 1.530%, 1.569%, and 1.617% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to spreads are given, such as the inter - period spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to two - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity [46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to five - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to ten - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [66]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to thirty - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [74]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

农产品日报 | 2025-07-02 二育较为谨慎，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13865元/吨，较前交易日变动-5.00元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，河南地区外 三元生猪价格15.15元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.15元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1285，较前交易日变动+155；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.38元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1515，较前交易日变动+115；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.45元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09+585，较前交易日变动+105。 据农业农村部监测，7月1日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.39，比昨天下降0.10个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为112.37，比昨天下降0.11个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.20元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；牛肉63.47 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；羊肉59.27元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；鸡蛋7.16元/公斤，比昨天下降1.4%；白条鸡17.12 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%。 市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) for various stock index options on July 1, 2025. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On July 1, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 605,600 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 615,800 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 915,200 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 47,300 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 718,100 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 17,400 contracts; CSI 300 stock index options was 55,200 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 171,900 contracts [1][21]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.76, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03; the position PCR was 0.93, with a month - on - month change of + 0.04. For other options, similar data are provided, showing different changes in turnover PCR and position PCR [2][33]. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 14.17%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.24%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 13.89%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.45%. Similar data for other options show various changes in VIX values [3][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, without policy disturbances, it is expected to go through a long - term capacity clearance cycle, and selling hedges on rallies are recommended. The market is currently affected by factors such as high inventory levels and potential restarts of production, with a weak fundamental outlook [2]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak due to reduced consumption, lower silicon wafer production schedules, high inventory pressure, and short - term supply increases. However, policy disturbances from the photovoltaic industry are significant, and the market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [5]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2509 opened at 8000 yuan/ton and closed at 7765 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton (- 4.31%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 361076 lots, and on July 2, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 52137 lots, a change of - 336 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly. The prices of some regions like Xinjiang and the Northwest rose, while individual prices in Kunming and Tianjin decreased. Prices in Huangpu Port, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic monomer enterprise operating rate continued to increase slightly, reaching about 70%. It is expected that the domestic DMC production schedule in July will increase by about 10,000 tons, leading to more consumption of industrial silicon [1]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 fluctuated. It opened at 33470 yuan/ton and closed at 32700 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.39% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 61196 lots (66333 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 261490 lots [3]. - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 3.67% to 23600 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 4.10% to 13.44GW [3][4]. - **Silicon Wafers**: In June, the domestic silicon wafer production was about 58GW, and the production schedule in July decreased by about 10% due to weak demand and tightened battery supply [4]. - **Battery Cells**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the price of Topcon210RN battery cells [4]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of N - type 182mm and N - type 210mm components [4]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Focus on range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedges on rallies [2]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [2]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [2]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [2]. - **Options**: Not recommended [2]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral [5]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [5]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [5]. - **Options**: Not recommended [5].

农产品日报 | 2025-07-02 苹果走货一般，红枣环割接近尾声 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7718元/吨，较前一日变动+17元/吨，幅度+0.22%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+482，较前一日变动-17；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1882，较前一日变动-17。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场产区冷库交易按需进行，整体成交氛围一般，价格趋于稳定。西部产区货源剩余不多， 存货商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果藤木、光果晨阳等陆续上市，上市后价格稳定；山东产区仍以发市场 为主，部分货源价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起 步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上统 货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 1, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 62,140 yuan/ton and closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 1.15% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 398,387 lots, and the open interest was 326,676 lots, a decrease of 4,148 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 592,395 lots, a decrease of 4,592 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 9,815 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.82. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 22,940 lots, an increase of 312 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 1, 2025, the quotation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,200 - 60,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot inventory was 136,800 tons, including 59,000 tons in smelters, 40,600 tons in downstream, and 37,200 tons in other inventories. The spot transaction price center of lithium carbonate remained stable for the time being. The lithium carbonate market continued the basic pattern of oversupply, with prominent supply - demand contradictions. The market had sufficient available goods, and the inventory pressure was not effectively alleviated. Downstream cathode plants had an expected increase in production in July, but currently mainly made rigid purchases, with no obvious increase in inventory - building willingness, and the market had strong wait - and - see sentiment and few transactions [2]. - In June, the domestic lithium carbonate market significantly increased production. The monthly total output increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year, reaching 78,090 tons [2]. Group 2: Strategy - Overall, the fundamentals were weak, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. The production of material factories in July had a certain increase, providing short - term support for consumption. The warehouse receipts would be cancelled in July, and recent news of production cuts on the supply side led to enlarged fluctuations in the disk. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and the willingness to sell for hedging after a rebound was strong [3]. - For trading strategies, it was recommended to sell for hedging at high prices in the unilateral market, and there were no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [5]. Group 3: Figures - There were figures including the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%), the price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%), the weekly total output of lithium carbonate, the weekly statistical inventory of lithium carbonate, the statistical inventory of lithium ore, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts [6].

油脂日报 | 2025-07-02 USDA面积报告变化较小，油脂延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8336.00元/吨，环比变化+6元，幅度+0.07%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7972.00 元/吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9477.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8390.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.24%，现货基差P09+54.00，环比变化 -26.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8140.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+168.00， 环比变化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9660.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+0.94%，现货基差 OI09+183.00，环比变化+28.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年6月1-30日马来西亚棕榈油单产环 比上月同期减少0.23%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.08%，产量环比上月同期减少0.65%。 据Wi ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-01 制造业PMI回升，指数上涨 市场分析 制造业PMI回升。国内方面，国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和 50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI 均连续两个月位于扩张区间。海外方面，美联储博斯蒂克重申，他仍预计美联储今年会下调一次利率，同时指出 美联储在决定采取行动之前还有时间考虑最新的数据，同时他预计美联储明年将降息三次。 指数上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡回升，上证指数涨0.59%收于3444.43点，创业板指涨1.35%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，国防军工、传媒、通信、电子行业涨幅居前，仅银行、非银金融、交通运输行业收跌。当日 沪深两市成交金额小幅回落至1.5万亿元。海外市场，加拿大宣布撤回数字服务税，以推动与美国的贸易谈判重回 正轨。美国总统特朗普与加拿大总理卡尼已同意两国将重启谈判，并力争在7月21日前达成协议。美国三大股指全 线收涨，道指涨0.63%报44094.77点。 期指减仓。期货市场，基差走势分化，IC、IM近月合约贴水 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has continued to weaken, but it will gain new support after full adjustment. The low-sulfur fuel oil market lacks a continuous upward drive [1][2] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **High-sulfur fuel oil**: The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.5% at 2990 yuan/ton. The spread structure has weakened significantly recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. OPEC's production increase will drive up the supply of medium and high-sulfur crude oil and fuel oil, and Iranian exports may rebound. The demand for power generation in summer is strong, shipping consumption is relatively stable, and refinery demand requires further adjustment of crack spreads. The increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial to the recovery of import demand [1] - **Low-sulfur fuel oil**: The main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.61% at 3581 yuan/ton. Short-term supply pressure is limited, and the market structure is stable. European refineries have switched production, and the supply of arbitrage cargoes in the Western region is low. The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil is at a low level. Singapore's bunker sales increased significantly in May, and short-term downstream bunker demand is good. In the medium term, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and domestic production is expected to pick up after the refinery maintenance season ends [2] Strategy - **High-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Low-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Cross-variety**: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - **Cross-period**: None [3] - **Spot-futures**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or -0.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton or -0.12% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$79/ton (down $3/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons (down 7.7 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons (down 3.1 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, with low arrivals and significant inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 15 tons, and inventory may rise again [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Domestically, the supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure shows a benign inventory reduction, but the circulating spot will be supplemented after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas, recent restarts of overseas plants indicate a loose supply, with concentrated arrivals in early July. The demand is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers plan to conduct maintenance in early July, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is neutral. With increasing supply and decreasing demand, it shows a short - term weak performance, but the downside is limited. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$79/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific content about international price difference is provided in the text. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - No specific content about downstream sales, production, and operating rate is provided in the text. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15 tons [1].