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美国初请失业救济人数下滑,夜盘贵金属略有调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at highs [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential rise in demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain volatile but at a historically high level, with a significant narrowing of the gold-silver ratio. There is a risk of a pullback due to profit-taking, and the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 16800 yuan/kg and 17800 yuan/kg [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced 20 details of the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" draft, but the key territorial issue remains unresolved [1] - Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 214,000, and the market still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of 2026 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1015.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1010.30 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 16,510.00 yuan/kg and closed at 17,609.00 yuan/kg, a change of 7.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,367,254 lots, and the open interest was 348,865 lots. The night session closed at 17,211 yuan/kg, down 2.26% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.63%, also unchanged [3] Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,755 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,264 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 491,223 lots, a change of 29.19% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 6,459 lots, and the short positions increased by 12,636 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,301,271 lots, a change of 38.32% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,064.56 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 24, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -4.74 yuan/gram, and for silver was -1,611.92 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 57.62, a change of -6.59% from the previous trading day, and the overseas ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On December 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 55,632 kg, a change of -10.36% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 1,010,776 kg, a change of 23.70%. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 26,760 kg [7]
股指上涨,期指活跃度提升
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, suggesting leveraging the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthening monetary policy regulation, and promoting low - cost social comprehensive financing. The meeting emphasized maintaining capital market stability but did not mention the real estate market. The US plans to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products from 2027, and China firmly opposes this [1]. - A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53% to 3940.95 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.77%. Most sector indices rose, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan. US stocks also closed higher on Christmas Eve [1]. - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures was repaired, and the trading volume and open interest increased simultaneously [2]. - The broader market showed a slight increase in volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive positive days. However, the overall willingness to take over was slightly insufficient, and there was some divergence among broad - based indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has not reached the resistance level, and the main tone is still oscillatory repair [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][10] 2. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on December 24, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to 3940.95, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% to 13486.42, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 3229.58, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.29% to 4634.06, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08% to 3025.18, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.31% to 7352.04, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.54% to 7506.38 [14]. - The charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [15] 3. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 98971 (+6942), open interest was 272260 (+1836); IH trading volume was 39414 (+1602), open interest was 83057 (+229); IC trading volume was 120446 (+24352), open interest was 271262 (+15502); IM trading volume was 185772 (+40779), open interest was 363902 (+11974) [16]. - The basis of stock index futures: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 16.46 (+5.47), the next - month contract was - 29.66 (+9.47), the current - quarter contract was - 39.06 (+10.27), and the next - quarter contract was - 88.46 (+11.07); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 0.02 (+3.34), the next - month contract was - 0.58 (+3.74), the current - quarter contract was 1.82 (+3.74), and the next - quarter contract was - 5.38 (+7.74); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 27.44 (+5.75), the next - month contract was - 74.64 (+7.75), the current - quarter contract was - 111.64 (+11.95), and the next - quarter contract was - 297.64 (+18.55); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 42.18 (+7.24), the next - month contract was - 115.78 (+11.84), the current - quarter contract was - 178.78 (+16.24), and the next - quarter contract was - 417.78 (+15.44) [41]. - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures: for the next - month minus the current - month spread, IF was - 13.20 (+4.00), IH was - 0.60 (+0.40), IC was - 47.20 (+2.00), and IM was - 73.60 (+4.60); for other spread combinations, specific values and changes are also provided [46][48][51]
化工日报:EG延续累库,供应回升下仍承压-20251225
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant drop on Tuesday and a sharp rise on Wednesday, there was no obvious change in the EG fundamentals. The increase was mainly due to defensive short - covering in response to unplanned maintenance at low market prices, along with positive sentiment in the commodity and chemical sectors [1] - The production margins of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas - based EG both decreased [1] - The inventory data from different sources showed different trends. The overall arrival volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the supply pressure is high in the next 1 - 2 months, and the demand from weaving is weakening. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts [2] - For investment strategies, the unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period or inter - commodity strategies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3818 yuan/ton (a change of +195 yuan/ton or +5.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3598 yuan/ton (a change of +76 yuan/ton or +2.16% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was - 13 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production margin of ethylene - based EG was - 110 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1046 yuan/ton (a decrease of 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] - The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has risen above 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on the international price difference was provided in the text, but a figure (Figure 9) about the international price difference (US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [20] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are weakening marginally, and the operating rate is declining rapidly, while the polyester operating rate remains firm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts due to weakening profitability [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 84.4 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.5 tons); according to Longzhong's data on Thursdays, it was 61.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.8 tons) [2] - The planned arrival volume at major ports in East China last week was 11.1 tons and 3 tons at secondary ports; this week, the planned arrival volume at major ports is 11.8 tons and 2.7 tons at secondary ports. The overall volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - The expected inventory build - up in the next 1 - 2 months is around 50 tons [2]
ONE1月上半月表价调整,02合约博弈运价见顶时间
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:53
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [9] - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations are likely to be revised down [7] - The delivery settlement price of the December contract is estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and attention should be paid to the actual SCFIS release [4] - The 02 contract is gradually shifting to the real - world trading logic, and the current point of contention is whether the first half of January marks the end of this round of freight rate increases [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of December 24, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index (European line) futures was 66,098 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,953 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1795.80, 1165.00, 1319.00, 1481.00, 1051.10, and 1605.90 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On December 19, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1533 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1992 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2846 dollars/FEU. On December 22, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1589.20 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 962.10 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity for the remaining two weeks was 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000 and 327,900 TEU in weeks 52 and 53 respectively. In January, the average weekly capacity was 304,600 TEU, and in February, it was 284,700 TEU. There were 3 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in January, and 8 TBNs and 3 blank sailings in February [3] - As of December 21, 2025, 250 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. Among them, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] 3.4 Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is progressing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation after the Spring Festival in 2026. The resumption of the Suez Canal means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [7] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Information from various surveys indicates that the cargo volume is gradually recovering [4] - The signing process of long - term agreements by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term agreements around 1800 dollars/FEU [6]
燃料油日报:市场驱动有限,FU仓单压力增加-20251225
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:53
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has rebounded from the low level recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists. The fuel oil market has limited overall drivers with a mix of long and short factors [2]. - The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the supply is still abundant, and the new 164,000 tons of FU futures warehouse receipts this week, with a total of 234,000 tons, suppress the market [2]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase due to changes in refinery maintenance. Although the end - of - year demand for marine fuel is boosted and there is component diversion by gasoline and diesel, the supply is abundant, and the valuation will be continuously suppressed [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.08% at 2,480 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.47% at 3,014 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3] Charts - There are 18 charts in total, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap contracts, month - to - month spreads, and domestic fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [4]
铅价走高之际,炼厂让渡升贴水以求出货
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is oscillating at a low level, with continued inventory decline and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Operational strategies suggest corresponding buying or selling hedging within this range, and an option strategy of selling a wide straddle is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.30/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 175 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 175 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white casings remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black casings increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 24, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,030 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 68,022 lots, an increase of 23,412 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 56,538 lots, a decrease of 1,548 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,305 yuan/ton and a low of 17,000 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the afternoon close of the previous day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly shipped long - term contracts, and traders actively cleared inventories. The spot offer for scattered lots was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered at a premium of 10 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price to sell off stocks. In Yunnan, holders offered at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price for just - in - time transactions. The downstream mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts. Some smelters lowered the premium of their quotes to sell, and some traders temporarily closed their accounts after selling out their inventories and did not participate in trading. The market trading was light [2] Inventory - On December 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of December 24, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The lead price is expected to trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Operational strategies suggest corresponding buying or selling hedging within this range, and the option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]
原油日报:印度信实恢复俄油采购-20251225
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:52
1、 纽约商品交易所2026年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌3美分,收于每桶58.35美元,跌幅为0.05%;2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌14美分,收于每桶62.24美元,跌幅为0.22%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.02%,报443 元/桶。(来源:Bloomberg) 2、 当地时间12月24日,塞尔维亚石油公司获得美国财政部负责制裁事务的机构(海外资产控制办公室)发放的 新的特别许可,相关许可期限延长至2026年3月24日。新许可允许塞尔维亚石油公司在制裁框架下,继续就涉及俄 罗斯股权的调整和出售问题开展谈判,为有关方面争取进一步协商解决的时间。不过,此次发放的许可并不意味 着公司可以正常开展全部经营活动。在许可有效期内,公司仍未获得全面恢复日常生产和商业运营的授权。塞尔 维亚总统武契奇表示,许可延期在一定程度上缓解了时间压力,但对彻底解决能源供应和企业经营问题的实际作 用有限,塞方仍需尽快推动形成长期、稳定的解决方案。(来源:Bloomberg) 3、 由于终端维修延误,里海管道联盟(CPC)混合油12月的装载量较初步计划下调33%,至114万桶/日。(来源: Bloomberg) 4、 阿联酋 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:消费逐步向淡季转换-20251225
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is still expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be watched [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$29.14 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,260 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 90 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,220 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan, with a premium of - 5 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,170 yuan per ton, up 180 yuan, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,290 yuan per ton and closed at 23,230 yuan per ton, down 215 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 171,518 lots, and the open interest was 95,197 lots. The highest price was 23,320 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,045 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 124,500 tons, up 2,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,875 tons, up 7,900 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are rising, and spot liquidity has improved. Procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase. The pressure on the supply side is increasing, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6]
资金面宽松,国债期货大多收涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continued while global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators show that China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan (+0.54%); M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, down 0.20% (-2.44%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, up 0.20% (+0.41%) [10]. - Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index is 97.96, up 0.06 (+0.06%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0101, down 0.010 (-0.14%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.39, down 0.01 (-1.00%); DR007 is 1.38, down 0.03 (-2.16%); R007 is 1.51, up 0.00 (-0.31%); The inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.60, up 0.00 (+0.16%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.16%) [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance situation [12][15][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.267%, 1.385%, 1.599%, and 1.579% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. - On December 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. IV. Spread Overview There are figures showing the inter - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [30][37][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures There are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][43][48]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures There are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [52][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures There are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [59][62][64]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures There are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [67][71][73]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].
液化石油气日报:终端需求改善乏力,盘面震荡运行-20251225
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:50
液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-25 终端需求改善乏力,盘面震荡运行 市场分析 1、\t12月24日地区价格:山东市场,4220-4350;东北市场,4100-4300;华北市场,4200-4350;华东市场,4250-4400; 沿江市场,4570-4960;西北市场,4100-4270;华南市场,4440-4530。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷598美元/吨,涨2美元/吨,丁烷588美元/吨,涨2美元/吨,折合 人民币价格丙烷4639元/吨,涨12元/吨,丁烷4562元/吨,涨12元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷591美元/吨,涨2美元/吨,丁烷581美元/吨,涨2美元/吨,折合 人民币价格丙烷4585元/吨,涨12元/吨,丁烷4507元/吨,涨12元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 近期LPG外盘价格走势维持震荡偏强,但国内市场氛围相对平淡,昨日现货价格涨跌互现。其中,山东民用气与 醚后碳四市场主流成交价格均出现下跌,区内民用气出货疲软,厂家出货压力增大,降价刺激出货,提振下游采 买意愿,但终端燃烧需 ...