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聚烯烃日报:聚烯烃下游整体开工延续下滑-20251219
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PE faces continuous supply pressure with high - level supply, limited planned maintenance, and new device production expectations. Demand is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and cost support from oil is decreasing, making it difficult to have substantial improvement in the short - term [2] - PP's supply pressure is expected to be less than PE's. Although supply may increase slightly, there could be supply reduction due to high costs. Demand is generally weak, with only BOPP providing some support. Inventory remains high, and cost support has weakened, with limited short - term rebound drivers [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,476 yuan/ton (-3), and the PP main contract is 6,279 yuan/ton (+25). LL North China spot is 6,420 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-170), and PP East China spot is 6,210 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis is -56 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis is -66 yuan/ton (-167), and PP East China basis is -69 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE's开工率 is 83.9% (-0.2%), and PP's开工率 is 79.4% (+1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 300.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), PP's oil - based production profit is -320.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), and PDH - made PP production profit is -715.6 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 46.6 yuan/ton (+146.6), PP's import profit is -269.8 yuan/ton (-1.7), and PP's export profit is -11.9 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film开工率 is 45.2% (-1.2%), PE's downstream packaging film开工率 is 49.0% (-0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.0% (-0.1%), and PP's downstream BOPP film开工率 is 63.2% (+0.3%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is high, demand is weakening, inventory pressure is large, and cost support is decreasing, with no short - term substantial improvement expected [2] - **PP**: Supply pressure is less than PE, but demand is weak, inventory is high, cost support has weakened, and short - term rebound drivers are limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE on rallies for hedging; wait and see on PP, which is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: Not provided [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 on rallies [4]
化工日报:EG负荷再度回升至7成以上-20251219
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - EG load has risen above 70%. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton, +0.24% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3654 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton, -0.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -22 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -91 US dollars/ton (up 0 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -991 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data, it was 61.7 tons (down 13.8 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 11.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 3 tons, with an overall slightly high level, and the main ports are expected to have a slight inventory build-up [1]. - On the supply side, as maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been relieved, but high supply will resume in January. On the overseas supply side, the arrival of foreign ethylene glycol ships has returned to normal this week, and the rising trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, the polyester load remains strong with low inventory, but orders are marginally weakening [2]. - The pressure of new production is large. As port inventory rises, the liquidity of goods in the market increases. The pressure of inventory build-up will be alleviated if short-term maintenance is implemented, but the pressure of inventory build-up from January to February is still large, and further production cuts are needed for balance [3]. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton, +0.24% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3654 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton, -0.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -22 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -91 US dollars/ton (up 0 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -991 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - As maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been relieved, but high supply will resume in January [2]. International Spread - No specific content provided. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Inventory at a low level, the polyester load remains strong, but orders are marginally weakening [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data, it was 61.7 tons (down 13.8 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 11.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 3 tons, with an overall slightly high level, and the main ports are expected to have a slight inventory build-up [1]. - The arrival of foreign ethylene glycol ships has returned to normal this week, and the rising trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated [2].
苯乙烯开工逐步见底,下游再度降负
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the peak of short - term arrivals in China has passed, the inventory accumulation rate has slowed but the absolute inventory level is still high. The price difference between the US and South Korea has been repaired to a relatively high level, but the overseas gasoline cracking spread has been continuously weakening, reducing the support of overseas oil blending for pure benzene. Domestic production has decreased due to low profits. In the downstream, attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of styrene, while non - styrene production remains weak, with CPL production at a low level this year and phenol and aniline production further declining [3] - For styrene, the decline rate of port inventory slowed down during the week, and the port basis continued to decline after reaching the peak. On one hand, it is related to the trading of styrene resumption, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Satellite Petrochemical. On the other hand, downstream pick - up has decreased. Downstream production has decreased again during the off - season, with EPS and PS production declining and ABS production fluctuating at a low level. There is still inventory pressure on EPS and ABS finished products [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene include the relationship between the pure benzene main contract basis and the futures price, the main contract basis, the spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [8][11] - Figures related to styrene include the relationship between the styrene main contract basis and the main contract, the EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [16][17] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Price Differences - Figures related to production costs and spreads include naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan [21] - Figures related to production profits include the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, the production profit of pure benzene imports, and the production profit of styrene imports [25][32] - Figures related to price differences between regions include the price differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf, FOB South Korea, CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam; and the price differences between styrene FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][26][37] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory and Production Rates - For pure benzene, figures show the inventory in East China ports and the production rate [38] - For styrene, figures show the inventory in East China ports, commercial inventory in East China, factory inventory, and the production rate [41][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Production Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [51][53][56] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Production Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the production rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][66][72]
下游轮胎开工率环比下降
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:19
化工日报 | 2025-12-19 下游轮胎开工率环比下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面,昨日收盘RU主力合约15320元/吨,较前一日变动-70元/吨;NR主力合约12455元/吨,较前一日变动-115 元/吨;BR主力合约11040元/吨,较前一日变动-120元/吨。 现货方面,云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15000元/吨,较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨,较前一 日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1845美元/吨,较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1765 美元/吨,较前一日变动-15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10950元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月份,重卡销量11.3万辆,同比大增65%,收获同比"8连增"的同时,还创造了今年重卡市场最高月销量。 据中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示,11月,我国汽车产销量分别完成353.2万辆和342.9万辆,环比分别增长 5.1%和3.2%,同比分别增长2.8%和3.4%。月度产量首次超过350万辆,创历 ...
库存去化速度放缓,碳酸锂盘面冲高回落
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:19
Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 106,800 yuan/ton and closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with a -0.79% change compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,013,916 lots, and the open interest was 672,711 lots, up from 668,589 lots the previous day. The current basis was -10,850 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 15,636 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 95,300 - 99,800 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 93,900 - 96,000 yuan/ton, also up 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,340 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The market transactions were rare, mainly supported by the rigid demand of some enterprises. The supply of lithium salt plants was stable, with an expected 3% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production in December. The demand was supported by the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, but the production schedules of cells and cathode materials were expected to decline slightly month-on-month in December. The industry maintained a pattern of "steady increase in supply and stable demand at a high level", with the de-stocking trend continuing but at a slower pace. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons, and the total inventory was 110,425 tons [2] Group 3: Strategy - The decline of lithium carbonate was due to technical overbought repair and profit-taking. The continuous de-stocking, certain consumption support, and supply uncertainty were key factors supporting the strong price. In the short term, it was likely to maintain a high-level shock. Attention should be paid to the production capacity release rhythm and capital trends, and be vigilant against the intensified fluctuations caused by the marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Group 4: Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Wait and see in the short term - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [5]
PVC社会库存小幅去化
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of PVC has marginally improved but remains weak. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side anti - involution sentiment [3]. - The supply - demand situation of caustic soda has slightly improved. Future focus should be on changes in liquid chlorine prices, device maintenance, and the implementation of macro - side anti - involution details [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,708 yuan/ton (+285), the East China basis was - 278 yuan/ton (-265), and the South China basis was - 268 yuan/ton (-275) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,430 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,440 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit was - 34 yuan/ton (-25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was - 1,102 yuan/ton (-83), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was - 520 yuan/ton (-48), and the PVC export profit was - 6.7 dollars/ton (-3.6) [1]. - **Inventory and Operation Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 34.4 tons (+1.8), PVC social inventory was 51.7 tons (-1.2), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate was 77.01% (-2.12%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate was 74.06% (-2.61%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.12% (-2.27%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.9 tons (-5.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,199 yuan/ton (+56), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 51 yuan/ton (-56) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 665.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was - 406.96 yuan/ton (+75.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 330.39 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rates**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 46.47 tons (+0.76), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 3.51 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.50% (-1.70%) [2]. - **Downstream Operation Rates**: The alumina operation rate was 86.11% (-0.09%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 62.06% (-0.68%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 89.62% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment, with cost support emerging. The news of the planned shutdown of a 450,000 - ton PVC device by Westlake Chemical in the US by the end of December 2025 boosted the market sentiment. However, the trading volume was light after the spot price increase. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the supply side remained abundant. The downstream operation rate generally declined, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level compared to the same period. The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end decreased, and the production profit of calcium carbide and semi - coke was in the red. The PVC futures warehouse receipts were at a high level, and the export profit decreased, but the export orders increased [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The spot price was mainly stable, and the trading volume improved at low prices. The inventory pressure in Shandong was partially relieved. The supply - side operation rate decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The alumina factory operation rate was stable, and the demand from non - aluminum industries weakened. Attention should be paid to the price change of liquid chlorine, device maintenance, and the implementation of anti - involution details [3]. Strategy - **PVC**: The single - side strategy is to expect a volatile market, the inter - delivery strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [4][5]. - **Caustic Soda**: The single - side strategy is to expect a volatile market, the inter - delivery strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5].
美国11月CPI数据低于预期,关注日本央行利率决议
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:18
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation expectation game, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors. Keep tracking the sentiment - driven market trends and prepare risk plans for potential right - side adjustments. Be aware of the policy expectation swing risks between domestic and foreign markets [3]. - In the short term, the market remains positive due to emotional factors. However, if the sentiment turns negative, be vigilant against the downward risks caused by the resonance of macro and fundamental factors, and prepare right - side risk plans [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's Politburo meeting emphasized continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. The Central Economic Work Conference focused on boosting consumption and anti - "involution". Multiple ministries responded, with the central bank planning to use monetary policy tools, the NDRC focusing on consumption promotion and anti - "involution", and the Ministry of Finance proposing to use government bonds and issue special treasury bonds. China's November economic data showed mixed results, with foreign trade rebounding, manufacturing PMI improving, and industrial production showing resilience, but consumption weakening and fixed - asset investment and real estate under pressure. Attention should be paid to the government work report around February next year and the risk of policy expectation swings [1]. Fed and Global Economic Data - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point rate cut and plans to buy $40 billion of short - term bonds in the next 30 days, with a slowdown in the rate - cut pace. The US economic data was weak, with employment and PMI data underperforming, and inflation at a multi - year low. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI showed mixed results, with Germany deteriorating and France expanding. The UK's CPI fell, and the Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points. The Fed's rate - cut slowdown and the expected rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December have an impact on the market, and risk plans should be made [2]. Commodity Market - In the non - ferrous metals sector, long - term supply constraints remain, with high certainty. In the energy sector, some OPEC countries proposed additional production cuts, the EU plans to stop Russian gas imports by 2027, and there are warnings of oil supply surplus. In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" potential in some products. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plans and weather expectations. In the precious metals sector, there are opportunities for bargain - hunting, but short - term silver risks have increased [3]. Market Performance - The A - share market was mixed, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. US core CPI was at a multi - year low, and Trump planned to announce a new Fed chair. The Bank of England cut rates, and in the commodity futures market, palladium, coking coal, and other products rose, while container shipping and polysilicon fell [5].
印尼逐步去库,棕榈止跌震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Indonesia is gradually reducing its palm oil inventory, causing the decline of palm oil prices to stop and enter a period of oscillation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Yesterday's closing prices were as follows - Palm oil 2605 contract was 8,368 yuan/ton, a +0.31% (+26 yuan) change; Soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,802 yuan/ton, a -0.26% (-20 yuan) change; Rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,945 yuan/ton, a -0.06% (-5 yuan) change [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the palm oil price in Guangdong was 8,380 yuan/ton, a -0.12% (-10 yuan) change with a spot basis of P05 + 12 yuan, a -36 yuan change; The first - grade soybean oil price in Tianjin was 8,230 yuan/ton, a -0.24% (-20 yuan) change with a spot basis of Y05 + 428 yuan, no change; The fourth - grade rapeseed oil price in Jiangsu was 9,400 yuan/ton, a -0.21% (-20 yuan) change with a spot basis of OI05 + 455 yuan, a -15 yuan change [1] Recent Market Consultation - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that private exporters sold 114,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year starting September 1 [2] - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that Indonesia's palm oil exports in October were 2.8 million tons, about 3% lower than the same period last year. The crude palm oil production in October was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, down from 2.59 million tons the previous month [2][3] - Canadian canola prices: The C&F price for January shipment was $502/ton, down $2/ton from the previous trading day; The C&F price for March shipment was $510/ton, down $3/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil prices: The C&F price for January shipment was $1,142/ton, down $4/ton; The C&F price for March shipment was $1,099/ton, down $13/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil for January shipment was $1,090/ton, unchanged; Canadian rapeseed oil for March shipment was $1,070/ton, unchanged [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]
备货情绪延续,猪价震荡偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3]. - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, the demand is boosted by the Winter Solstice stocking and the reluctance of farmers to sell, causing the pig price to maintain an upward trend. However, after the festival, the supply pressure may be released, which will restrict the pig price [2]. - For the egg market, although the festival stocking has accelerated the market turnover, the egg price remains in a low - level shock pattern due to the off - season consumption. The slow decline in inventory pressure on the supply side also restricts the egg price [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2603 contract was 11,325 yuan/ton, a change of - 110.00 yuan/ton or - 0.96% from the previous trading day [1]. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.80 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.01 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.15 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.25 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.25 yuan/kg, with no change. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.51 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The demand is boosted by the Winter Solstice stocking and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the supply is slightly tight in some northern areas, so the pig price keeps rising. The demand increase is mainly in East China, Shandong, and Henan. The pickling demand in Southwest China has also increased, while that in South China is relatively weak. After the festival, the supply pressure may be released and restrict the pig price [2]. Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is to be cautiously bearish [3]. Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 2,916 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 176.00 yuan or - 5.69% from the previous trading day [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong, it was 3.10 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, with no change. On December 18, 2025, the production - link inventory was 0.94 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, both unchanged from the previous day [3][4]. Market Analysis - The festival stocking has accelerated the market turnover, but since it is the off - season for egg consumption, the support of festival purchases from catering and households for the egg price is unsustainable. The slow decline in inventory pressure on the supply side restricts the egg price [5]. Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is to be cautiously bearish [6].
市场情绪谨慎,钢价持续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:18
Group 1: Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is cautious, and steel prices continue to oscillate. The macro - atmosphere for glass and soda ash is warm, with a slight rebound. The consumption of steel products is fair, and ferroalloys have a slight rebound [1][2] Group 3: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures oscillated upward with active trading. Spot prices were generally weak, with low - price and rigid - demand purchases. This week, the total inventory of float glass was 58.558 million heavy boxes, a 0.57% week - on - week increase. Glass production is oscillating at a high level, supply contraction is insufficient, and there is still a supply - demand contradiction. Rigid demand lacks improvement and is expected to decline further with the arrival of the off - season. Attention should be paid to cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1] - Soda ash futures oscillated upward, supported by cost. Spot market quotes were weakly stable, with overall mixed price changes and mainly rigid - demand purchases. This week, soda ash production was 721,400 tons, a 1.9% week - on - week decrease; inventory was 1.4993 million tons, a 0.33% week - on - week increase. Soda ash production is at a relatively high level in the same period, and with the commissioning of new production lines, supply is expected to increase further. Inventory is oscillating at a high level, and considering the expected increase in the cold - repair plan of float glass, the demand for heavy soda ash faces challenges. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream demand on soda ash prices [1] Double Silicon (Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon) - For ferrosilicon manganese, although it is the off - season, the consumption of building materials is still fair, and ferrosilicon manganese futures oscillated upward. The spot market of ferrosilicon manganese oscillated, with cost - side ore prices remaining firm. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5,490 - 5,550 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton. Currently, ferrosilicon manganese enterprises are in a continuous loss situation, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels. However, the reduction in production is insufficient, resulting in continuously new high enterprise inventories. The inventory of manganese ore at ports has slightly increased, and the total inventory of manganese elements has remained stable, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [2] - For ferrosilicon, ferrosilicon futures rose first and then fell. The spot market of ferrosilicon was weak. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,100 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton. This week, ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, enterprises remained in a loss situation, actively adjusted the production rhythm, demand declined marginally, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventories were at a high level. High inventories will continue to suppress ferrosilicon prices. Attention should be paid to changes in cost - side coal and electricity prices and regional policies [2]