农产品日报 | 2025-06-26 苹果主流成交价稳定，红枣首轮环割结束 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7690元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.21%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+510，较前一日变动-16；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1910，较前一日变动-16。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场库内货源交易整体不快，客商拿货积极性一般，产区套袋结束后询价略多，但成交有限。 西部产区货源剩余不多，存货商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果藤木、光果晨阳等陆续上市，上量有限，价 格基本持平于去年；山东产区大果及好果走货一般，客商寻货不积极。销区市场市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在 一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖 霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 钢厂减产，不锈钢盘面反弹收高 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-25日沪镍主力合约2507开于117680元/吨，收于118600元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.17%，当日成交量为 76394手，持仓量为36302手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘后横盘振荡，日盘开盘继续上下振荡，午后尾盘反弹收高，收中阳线。成交量较上个交易 日小幅下降，持仓量较上个交易日小幅下降。美国总统特朗普称，以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生效。央行等六部 门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，要夯实宏观经济金融基础，支持居民就业增收，优化保 险保障，积极培育消费需求。强化结构性货币政策工具激励，加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持，发展债券、股 权等多元化融资渠道。菲律宾，矿山报价维持坚挺。受降雨天气影响，装船出货效率不高。镍铁成交创新低910元 /镍（舱底含税）成交上万吨，交期7月份，铁厂利润再度受挫，印尼镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出 现减产得以缓解。6月（二期）内贸基准价下跌0.3-0.5美元左右；当前内贸升水维持26-28。现货市场方面，金川镍 早盘报价较上个交易日上调约6 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13645元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14832元/吨，较前一日变动+65元/吨，现货基差CF09+1187，较前一日变动+30；3128B棉全国均价14938元/吨， 较前一日变动+55元/吨，现货基差CF09+1293，较前一日变动+20。 近期市场资讯，据CAI公布的数据统计显示，截至2025年6月22日当周，印度棉花周度上市量17.4万吨，同比增长 501%；印度2024/25年度的棉花累计上市量490.75万吨，同比下滑5%。CAI累计上市量达24/25年度预测平衡表产量 （495万吨）的99%，同比快6%。 市场分析 农产品日报 | 2025-06-26 郑糖期价延续反弹，纸浆走势依旧偏弱 棉花观点 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，6月USDA供需报告调减25/26年度全球棉花产量及消费量，由于产量减幅大于 消费，叠加期初供应减少，期末库存环比下降。美棉主产区近期降雨偏多，旱情较前期持续改善，其他国家供应 端天气的叙事性目前也不足。不过美棉苗情有所转差，推动美棉期价近日连续反弹。后续重点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The current TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises are affected by the implementation of the reverse invoicing policy and generally believe that the supply of goods may become tight in the future. However, the demand side is not very optimistic. Although the supply and demand are slightly weak, the macro factors are relatively changeable, and the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. Therefore, it is still recommended to mainly use buy hedging on dips, with the buying range of the Cu2507 contract suggested to be between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,810 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,720 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on June 25, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,530 - 78,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of flat to 60 yuan/ton for the 2507 contract and an average premium of 30 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The intraday spread between nearby contracts narrowed to 130 - 150 yuan. The market supply of goods tightened, and the premium stabilized. It is expected that the premium will remain stable today, but some tight varieties may rise [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical aspects: Trump said that he thought the war between Israel and Iran was over, but the conflict might break out again, perhaps soon, and he would not give up sanctions on Iran. He did not think Iran would restart its nuclear program. The US will hold talks with Iran next week, and he did not think the nuclear deal was necessary. Domestically, the Iranian defense minister arrived in China to attend the SCO defense ministers' meeting [3] Mining End - New World Resources' land reclamation plan for its Antler copper mine project in Arizona has been approved. With the pending state-level permits, the company can start construction on the private land that constitutes most of the Antler project. The Arizona Mining Supervision Bureau approved the plan and accepted a total of A$9.01 million in relevant financial guarantees, which must be finalized within 60 days. New World, which is in a takeover bidding war, plans to meet this requirement through a guaranteed bond arranged with its preferred insurance company. The Antler project is located in a remote area in northern Arizona and is planned as an underground mining operation. Magna Mining received C$500,000 from the Ontario government for the development of its Crean Hill nickel-copper-platinum group metal mine in the brownfield project. Magna said the funds will be used for metallurgical research on improving the recovery of precious metals in the Crean Hill contact zone and footwall mineralization, which is part of its 2024 surface bulk sampling plan. In September last year, the company released the latest economic evaluation of the project, based on more than 30 million tons of mineral resources (including 14.5 million tons of high-grade underground resources) that meet the NI 43 - 101 standard, calculating a post-tax net present value (8% discount rate) of C$194.1 million and a mine life of 13 years [4] Smelting and Import - In April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, while in March, there was a surplus of 12,000 tons. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year. In April, the global refined copper production was 2.37 million tons, and the consumption was 2.42 million tons [5] Consumption - Recently, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month-on-month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The mid-year production plan put pressure on processing fees, and the resumption of production by some enterprises drove the output to rebound. The raw material inventory decreased to 34,650 tons (-3.08%), while the finished product inventory increased to 68,350 tons (+7.38%), reflecting weak terminal demand. It is expected that the operating rate will slightly rise to 76.23% next week, and the high copper price may continue to suppress the improvement of demand. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased to 73.26% (a month-on-month decrease of 3.04 percentage points), mainly due to weak terminal demand and the high copper price suppressing procurement. The finished product inventory decreased to 21,190 tons (-5.02%), and the raw material inventory increased to 17,360 tons (+1.58%). It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decrease to 71.64% next week, and the demand decline in the construction industry is particularly significant [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,200 tons to 94,675 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21,470 tons. On June 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 129,600 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous week [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 多空博弈加剧，碳酸锂盘面振幅放大 市场分析 2025年6月25日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60700元/吨，收于60880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.96%。当 日成交量为366743手，持仓量为350406手，较前一交易日增加6842手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳680 元/吨。所有合约总持仓630554手，较前一交易日减少982手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少408949手，成交 量451997，整体投机度为0.72。当日碳酸锂仓单22370手，较上个交易日减少5手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月25日电池级碳酸锂报价5.97-6.07万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.03万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.81-5.91万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.03万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心呈现震荡上行，主 要受期货盘面反弹影响。当前碳酸锂过剩格局仍未改变。从供应端看，市场可流通货源充足，库存压力尚未得到 有效缓解；需求侧则未有显著增量预期，下游正极材料企业维持谨慎采购策略，仅以刚需采购为主。此前碳酸锂 价格快速下探，已逐步逼近行 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-26 二育滚动入场，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14000元/吨，较前交易日变动+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.43%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.74元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+740，较前交易日变动-20；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.01元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动+0；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.67元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09-330，较前交易日变动-140。 据农业农村部监测，6月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.57，比昨天下降0.15个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.57，比昨天下降0.17个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.22元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；牛肉63.58 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉59.67元/公斤，与昨天持平；鸡蛋7.29元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡16.99元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.0%。 市场分析 综合来 ...

Industry Overview Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View The report provides an overview of various industries, including production, service, upstream,中游, downstream, and market pricing, highlighting recent trends and developments in each sector. Summary by Category Production and Service Industries - Shanghai plans to build a world - class ship and offshore engineering equipment industrial cluster, aiming for an industry added - value of over 45 billion yuan by 2030 and a localisation rate of over 85% for large LNG carriers [1]. - The memory market, led by DDR4, is rapidly warming up, with DDR4 particle prices doubling in just two weeks [1]. - Six departments have issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [1]. - Retirement pensions are exempt from personal income tax in Beijing [1]. Upstream - International oil prices decreased significantly compared to the previous day [2]. - Coal inventory in Qinhuangdao decreased [2]. - Egg prices have rebounded recently [2]. Midstream - The polyester operating rate declined, while the PX operating rate increased [3]. - The coal consumption of power plants dropped to a three - year low, and the power plant operating rate decreased [3]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low [4]. - The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the entire industry has slightly declined recently [5]. Industry Credit Spread - The credit spreads of multiple industries, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry, have declined this week [48]. Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various commodities, including agricultural products, metals, energy, and chemicals, have shown different trends, with some rising and some falling [49].

需求缺乏亮点，现货涨跌互现 液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-26 市场分析 1、\t6月25日地区价格：山东市场，4750—4830；东北市场，4160—4310；华北市场，4590—4700；华东市场， 4580—4750；沿江市场，4830—4980；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4798。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，稳定，丁烷545美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4773元/吨，稳定，丁烷4300元/吨，涨1元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷607美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，稳定，折合人民 随着中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅， 并带动能源板块大幅下跌。如果没有新的变数，LPG市场或重新进入基本面主导的阶段。目前来看，整体供需格 局仍偏宽松，海外供应较为充裕，国内炼厂检修结束后商品量也逐步回升，短期到港压力则有所缓和。需求方面， 燃烧需求疲软，PDH装置开工率有所回升，但利润依然承压，制约 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term strategy for oil prices is to wait and see as they are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations, and the medium - term strategy is to take a short position [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent significant declines in US commercial crude oil inventories are due to a combination of factors including slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports. The wildfires in Canada previously led to supply reduction, but with the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and future North American supply may mainly rely on the growth of Canadian oil sands production capacity [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 55 cents to $64.92 per barrel, a 0.85% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 54 cents to $67.68 per barrel, a 0.80% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.77% at 505 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending June 23, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 19.12 million barrels, a 3.8% increase from the previous week, hitting a five - week high. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.332 million barrels to 6.738 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 0.151 million barrels to 2.044 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.882 million barrels to 10.338 million barrels [1] - Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% and the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% [1] - For the week ending June 20 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels (expected - 0.797 million barrels, previous value - 11.473 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.464 million barrels (previous value - 0.995 million barrels); US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.44 million barrels per day from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 1.39% decrease [1] - US President Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. He believes the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but it may break out again. He doesn't think Iran will resume its nuclear program. The US will not give up pressuring Iran and will not take over oil [1] Investment Logic - The recent significant decline in US commercial crude oil inventories is due to slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports, especially the supply reduction caused by Canadian wildfires. With the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and this year's US crude oil export data has reflected this feature, with net export volume of shipments no longer contributing to the increment [2] Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see as oil prices are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations; Medium - term: Take a short position [3] Risk - Downside risks: Faster OPEC production increase rhythm, macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-26 港口库存继续累积 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.10万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费161美元/吨（+12美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国 加工费147美元/吨（+16美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差53.6美元/吨（-5.2美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-35元/吨（-5 元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差582元/吨（-7元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润264元/吨（+100元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存85000吨（+18700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存66300吨（+21300吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率79.0%（+5.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润299元/吨（-164元/吨），PS生产利润-401元/吨（-64元/吨），ABS生产利润256元/吨（-99 元/吨）。EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 伊朗以色列地缘冲突放缓，原油拖累纯苯及苯乙烯成本。纯苯方面，国产开工率已上 ...