1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: L, PP neutral; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, leading to an enhanced supply surplus expectation and weak demand. International oil prices have fallen, weakening cost - side support. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is limited. After the price drops to a low level, it will fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances and macro - policy dynamics [2]. - PP: International oil prices have corrected, weakening oil - based cost support. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and short - term trends are still guided by the cost side. The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is slowly recovering. The weak supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed, and the sustainability of price increases may be limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the cost side and the start - stop situation of PDH marginal devices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 6685 yuan/ton (+28). LL North China spot was 6960 yuan/ton (-20), LL East China spot at 7060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6610 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis at 51 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 75 yuan/ton (-28) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 382.3 yuan/ton (+110.9), PP oil - based production profit was - 307.7 yuan/ton (+110.9), PDH - based PP production profit was 54.5 yuan/ton (+45.3) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was - 16.3 yuan/ton (+20.7), PP import profit was - 295.4 yuan/ton (+10.4), PP export profit was - 16.6 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Cost - side support weakens, supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and short - term prices will fluctuate with limited upside space [2]. - PP: Cost - side support weakens, supply - demand contradictions remain, and the sustainability of price increases is limited [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies; - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core View - The supply - demand situation of propylene remains relatively loose. The supply is expected to increase due to the restart of propylene plants in North China and the resumption of maintenance units. The demand is mainly rigid, with downstream replenishment being cautious. The cost support is weakening as crude oil prices are falling with OPEC+ production increase expectations. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost side and PDH plant start - stop status [3] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 6205 yuan/ton (+93), the spot price in East China is 6060 yuan/ton (-15), and in North China is 5985 yuan/ton (-25). The basis in East China is - 145 yuan/ton (-108), and in North China is - 147 yuan/ton (-45). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the spread between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 176 US dollars/ton (-6), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit is - 251 yuan/ton (+136), and the in - plant inventory is 46260 tons (+4770) [2] - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 41% (+2.74%), production profit is - 5 yuan/ton (+25); epoxy propane operating rate is 68% (+0%), production profit is - 389 yuan/ton (-32); n - butanol operating rate is 86% (-4%), production profit is - 73 yuan/ton (+15); octanol operating rate is 88% (-4%), production profit is - 381 yuan/ton (+18); acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (-1%), production profit is 747 yuan/ton (+11); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 394 yuan/ton (+52); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+0%), production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+0) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: Propylene supply is expected to increase due to the restart of plants in North China, reduction of external propylene procurement in some areas, and the resumption and capacity increase of maintenance units. Some enterprises offer discounts to sell [3] - Demand side: Downstream replenishment is cautious due to the loosening of propylene prices. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The supply of PO is stable for now, and the demand is mainly rigid. The acrylic acid plant has seen a significant decline in operating rate due to centralized maintenance, but some plants are expected to restart. The operating rate of PP powder has increased, while that of butanol and octanol has decreased significantly [3] - Cost side: Crude oil prices are falling with OPEC+ production increase expectations, and the cost support is weakening [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies; - Inter - variety: None [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% as expected and ended the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, marking the end of the quantitative tightening phase. The policy has entered a new transition stage of "stop easing → observe and evaluate", with the future interest - rate path becoming more uncertain [2][3]. - After the resolution, the market re - priced interest rates, exchange rates, and risk assets due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts behind the end of balance - sheet reduction. If macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the market's trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious [4]. 3. Section Summaries FOMC Meeting Results - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, with internal differences on interest - rate decisions, indicating increased uncertainty about the future interest - rate path [2][3]. - Powell emphasized that whether to cut interest rates in December depends on data, and the policy orientation has shifted to stronger data dependence. There are upward short - term inflation disturbances from tariffs, but they are expected to be temporary [3]. - The Fed has not determined the details of the balance - sheet duration structure adjustment but will gradually tilt towards short - duration allocation [3]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's decision, the market initially had a mild reaction, but then quickly re - priced due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose by over 7bp to 4.06%, the 2 - year yield rose by over 10bp, U.S. stocks fell, gold declined, emerging - market currencies were under pressure, and Bitcoin significantly corrected [4]. - The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts, and if macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, and interest - rate fluctuations and cross - asset misalignment will remain highly elastic [4]. Economic Data Forecast (SEP Outlook) - Forecasts for real GDP, unemployment rate, PCE, core PCE, and interest rates from 2025 - 2028 are provided, and compared with June's predictions, showing changes in economic data expectations [30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The contradiction in the liquefied petroleum gas market is currently limited, and the volatility of the crude oil end has also decreased. The market has entered a narrow - range oscillation state, and industry players are waiting for the final result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On October 29, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4200 - 4300; Northeast market, 3630 - 4030; North China market, 4100 - 4350; East China market, 4150 - 4310; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4760; Northwest market, 4150 - 4200; South China market, 4250 - 4480 [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 548 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 548 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4274 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton, and butane was 4274 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China, was 543 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton, and butane was 543 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4235 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton, and butane was 4235 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton [1] - The domestic liquefied petroleum gas spot price remained stable overall yesterday, with partial increases. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price of civil liquefied petroleum gas increased month - on - month, but the price of ether - post carbon four decreased. The trading atmosphere of civil gas was active, driving up the prices of some enterprises with good sales. The production and sales of ether - post carbon four were stable, but the decline in crude oil prices had a negative impact on market sentiment, and refineries adjusted their prices downwards [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - expectations and the expectations of price increase letters are driving the strong performance of futures contracts. The 12 - month contract is expected to first trade on the price increase expectations, then the actual implementation of price increase letters. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. The 12 - month contract is expected to be in an upward - trending oscillation, and the valuation ceiling may be around 2100 - 2200 points [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has different quotes for the 45th and 46th weeks, and many shipping companies have different quotes for the first and second half - months of November [1][2] - Geopolitical events: Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military has killed dozens of Hamas commanders and attacked dozens of infrastructure targets since the 28th [2] 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in October is 324,100 TEU, 283,900 TEU in November, and 321,800 TEU in December. There are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 5 TBNs in December [3] 3.3 12 - Month Contract - The 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm of trading. First, it trades on the price increase expectations, then the actual implementation of price increase letters. The 11 - month first - half actual implementation prices are gradually being revised downwards. It is expected that there will be three rounds of price increase letters by the time of the 12 - month contract delivery. If each round of price increase letters is implemented at 300 US dollars/FEU, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the 12 - month contract may be around 2100 - 2200 points [4] 3.4 2026 February Contract - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Whether the shipping companies' contract - signing and price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain. If the high price is implemented in January 2026, the February contract price may be higher than the 12 - month contract price [5][6] 3.5 Strategy - For the single - side trading, the 12 - month contract is expected to be in an upward - trending oscillation. There is no current strategy for arbitrage [8] 3.6 Other Data - As of October 29, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 65,807 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 46,921 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided. The SCFI prices for different routes on October 24 and the SCFIS prices on October 27 are also given [6] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell sent a hawkish signal at the press conference, and the path of interest rate cuts this year remains uncertain. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly fluctuate in the near future [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting from December 1, 2025. Powell said that another rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion," with significant differences in FOMC opinions, and some members advocate a pause [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 895.12 yuan/gram and closed at 910.88 yuan/gram, up 1.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 910.92 yuan/gram, basically flat with the afternoon session [2]. - On the same day, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,029 yuan/kg and closed at 11,338 yuan/kg, up 2.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 747,886 lots, and the open interest was 304,414 lots. The night session closed at 11,265 yuan/kg, down 0.64% from the afternoon session [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 29, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.074%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.52%, also unchanged [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 142 lots, and the short positions decreased by 52 lots compared with the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 477,855 lots, down 25.73% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,251,314 lots, down 28.93% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.92 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,210 tons, also unchanged [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 29, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -4.09 yuan/gram, and for silver was -978.91 yuan/kg [6]. - The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the SHFE was about 80.34, down 1.52% from the previous trading day. The ratio in the overseas market was 84.20, down 1.02% [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 52,130 kg, down 23.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 605,454 kg, down 20.90% [7]. - The delivery volume of gold was 12,192 kg, and that of silver was 112,200 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold is expected to fluctuate, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 880 yuan/gram and 930 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver is also expected to fluctuate, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,800 yuan/kg and 11,800 yuan/kg [8].

FICC日报 | 2025-10-30 美联储如期降息25基点，关注中美元首会晤 市场分析 "十五五"规划建议稿发布，市场情绪受提振。党的二十届四中全会于10月20日至23日在京召开，全会提出了"十五 五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，并发布会议公报。公报指出"十五五"时期的主要目标，即：高质量发展取得显 著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深化改革取得新突破，社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质 不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。公报还提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、 科技实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP 目标推算，十五五期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月28日， "十五五"规划建议全文发布，将采取超常规措施，全链条推动重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破、全面 实施"人工智能+"行动、大力提振消费。10月26日，央行在国务院关于金融工作情况的报告中提出：健全稳市机制， 落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，研究储备新的政策举措。2025金融街论坛年会于10月27日至 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external market pressure and long - term focus on US cotton production and export. The domestic cotton market has low initial inventory but new supply. Short - term cotton price increase is limited, while long - term is optimistic [2] - The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance. Supply remains loose, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,620 yuan/ton yesterday, up 55 yuan/ton (+0.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In September, Bangladesh imported about 152,000 tons of cotton, a 14.4% increase from August and 5.9% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market's supply - demand is expected to be loose, with short - term external market pressure due to supply and demand issues. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price increase is limited by hedging and weak demand, while long - term is affected by low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, there is a possibility of a callback; long - term, cotton prices are optimistic [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5720 yuan/ton, unchanged. It is estimated that in mid - October in Brazil's central - southern region, sugarcane crushing will be 33.42 million tons (down 1.5% year - on - year), sugar production 2.47 million tons (up 0.6% year - on - year), and ethanol production 1.973 billion liters (down 3.1% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the global sugar market may be in a bear cycle. The Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak external market [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, follow the weak external market; pay attention to the support at around 5400 [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5242 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong's Chilean silver star coniferous pulp price was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp price was 4985 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. Imported wood pulp spot prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [5][6] Market Analysis - The pulp market's supply remains loose, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The traditional peak season has not seen strong demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the fourth - quarter peak season [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The APEC meeting in South Korea has made Sino - US related issues the focus of the market. Key issues related to crude oil include the cancellation of US sanctions on Chinese entities, exemptions or licenses for China's procurement of Russian oil, and the resumption of China's procurement of US crude oil. The most crucial point is whether there will be a breakthrough in Sino - US trade negotiations to improve the macro - sentiment. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 33 cents to $60.48 per barrel, a 0.55% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 52 cents to $64.92 per barrel, a 0.81% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.28% at 465 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending October 25, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 377,644 kiloliters to 10,027,202 kiloliters, gasoline inventory decreased by 16,721 kiloliters to 1,603,954 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory decreased by 91,715 kiloliters to 2,742,806 kiloliters. The average refinery operating rate was 91.2%, up from 86.2% the previous week [1]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the establishment of an energy alliance. He expects that Ukraine's long - range strikes on Russia have reduced fuel by 22 - 27% and caused a loss of over 20% in refining capacity [1]. - China's first national onshore shale oil demonstration area in Xinjiang's Jimsar has an annual output exceeding 1.5 million tons for the first time this year, marking a new stage of large - scale and stable production in China's shale oil development [1]. Investment Logic The APEC meeting in South Korea has drawn market attention to Sino - US related issues in the crude oil market. The core is whether there will be a breakthrough in Sino - US trade negotiations to improve the overall macro - sentiment [2]. Strategy The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3]. - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil, a breakthrough in Sino - US trade negotiations, and large - scale supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the intraday rebound of the futures market is mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, production in Southwest China will be reduced, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant policies, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production scheduling may also weaken. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,995 yuan/ton and closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 1.61% from the previous settlement price. The position of the 2511 main contract was 220,662 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,338 lots, a decrease of 706 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton and is expected to decline slightly under pressure [1] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,600 yuan/ton and closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 118,430 lots, and the trading volume was 307,284 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 4.84% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 14.73GW, an increase of 2.65% month - on - month. The production of polysilicon in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and production in Southwest China is expected to decline significantly in November [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended. The 11 main contract is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]