1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the marginal devices of various downstream products of butadiene, including their current status, production capacity, and sourcing of raw materials. The four major demand areas for butadiene, namely cis - polybutadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, account for 86.45% of the total butadiene demand. The analysis is carried out in descending order of the demand ratio of externally - sourced raw material devices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Preface The previous part of the series analyzed the marginal devices and regional device balance of butadiene itself. This part focuses on the marginal devices of butadiene's downstream products. The four major demand areas for butadiene are cis - polybutadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, accounting for 86.45% of the total demand. The analysis will be conducted in descending order of the demand ratio of externally - sourced raw material devices [8]. 3.2 Butadiene Downstream Device Analysis 3.2.1 Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 38 sets of cis - polybutadiene rubber devices in China, with 5 shut down, 1 under construction, and 32 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 2.072 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.54 million tons (26.06%), state - owned enterprises is 1.472 million tons (71.04%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.06 million tons (2.9%). All use the polymerization method [9]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 2.112 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 1.23 million tons (59.36%), with state - owned devices accounting for 83%. The remaining over 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 0.842 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 88.12% [13]. 3.2.2 ABS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 28 sets of ABS polymer devices in China, with 2 shut down, 5 under construction, and 21 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 9.165 million tons. The production capacity of state - owned enterprises is 6.72 million tons (73.3%), private enterprises is 1 million tons (10.9%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 1.445 million tons (15.77%). The emulsion grafting method accounts for 90.67% of the production capacity, and the bulk method accounts for 9.33% [16]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 9.165 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 2.34 million tons (25.53%), all of which are state - owned devices. The remaining 70% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 6.825 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 64.1% [20]. 3.2.3 SBS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 30 sets of SBS devices in China, with 1 shut down, 3 under construction, and 26 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 1.845 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.44 million tons (23.85%), state - owned enterprises is 0.9 million tons (48.78%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.505 million tons (27.37%). The block anionic solution polymerization method accounts for 69.73% of the production capacity [25]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 1.845 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 0.38 million tons (20.6%), with state - owned devices accounting for 65%. The remaining nearly 80% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, with production capacities of 0.74 million tons and 0.655 million tons respectively, accounting for 39.59% and 39.25% [27]. 3.2.4 Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 29 sets of styrene - butadiene rubber devices in China, with 2 under construction, 25 in production, and 2 in long - term shutdown since 2018. The total production capacity of in - production devices is 1.765 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.1 million tons (5.67%), state - owned enterprises is 1.615 million tons (91.5%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.05 million tons (2.83%). The emulsion polymerization method accounts for 68.19% of the production capacity [32]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 1.765 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 1.055 million tons (59.77%), with state - owned devices accounting for 92.44%. The remaining 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 0.71 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 84.5% [34]. 3.2.5 Nitrile Latex Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 47 sets of nitrile latex devices in China, with 8 shut down, 2 under construction, and 37 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 2.012 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 1.122 million tons (55.77%), state - owned enterprises is 0.44 million tons (21.87%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.45 million tons (22.37%). All use the latex reactor device [38]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 2.012 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 0.3 million tons (14.9%), all of which are state - owned devices. The remaining 85% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with private enterprises as the main force [41]. 3.2.6 SEBS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 15 sets of SEBS devices in China, with 3 under construction and 12 in production. The total production capacity is 460,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 70,000 tons (15.22%), state - owned enterprises is 275,000 tons (59.78%), foreign - funded enterprises is 95,000 tons (20.65%), and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - funded enterprises is 20,000 tons (4.35%). The block anionic solution polymerization method accounts for 56.52% of the production capacity [46]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: All SEBS devices in China need to source butadiene raw materials externally, mainly in East and South China. The device production capacity is small and scattered [49]. 3.2.7 Nitrile Rubber Device There are 5 sets of nitrile rubber devices in China, with a total production capacity of 285,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 185,000 tons (35.09%), and state - owned enterprises is 100,000 tons (64.91%). Private enterprise devices need to source raw materials externally, while the state - owned device has self - owned butadiene raw materials [52]. 3.2.8 Styrene - Butadiene Latex Device There are 9 sets of styrene - butadiene latex devices in China, with 1 under construction and 8 in production. The total production capacity is 245,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 190,000 tons (77.55%), state - owned enterprises is 50,000 tons (20.41%), and mixed - ownership enterprises is 5,000 tons (2.04%). The latex reactor device accounts for 100% of the production capacity [57]. 3.2.9 Pyridine - Butadiene Latex Device There are 5 sets of pyridine - butadiene latex devices in China, with 1 shut down and 4 in production. The total production capacity is 165,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 145,000 tons (87.88%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 20,000 tons (12.12%). The latex reactor device accounts for 100% of the production capacity [60]. 3.3 Summary - Cis - polybutadiene rubber: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 59.36%, with state - owned devices accounting for 83%. The remaining over 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 88.12% [65]. - ABS: The proportion of in - production devices with self - owned butadiene is 25.53%, all of which are state - owned devices. Nearly 75% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 64.1%, and the remaining devices are distributed in South, Northeast, and North China [65]. - SBS: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 20.6%, with state - owned devices accounting for 65%. Nearly 80% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, accounting for 39.59% and 39.25% respectively, and the remaining devices are in Central, North, and Northeast China [65]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 59.77%, with state - owned devices accounting for 94.3%. 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 84.5%, and the remaining devices are distributed in South, Northeast, and Central China [65]. - SEBS: All in - production devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, with capacity accounting for 39.19% and 31.08% respectively, and nearly 30% of the capacity in Central China [66]. - Nitrile latex: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 14.9%, all of which are state - owned devices. 85% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with private enterprises as the main force [66].

Report on Stock Index Options Market Overview 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the trading data of various stock index options on October 21, 2025, including trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), to help investors understand the market situation of stock index options. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On October 21, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1.1217 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 1.4786 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 1.9288 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.142 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 3.1823 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 0.0254 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 stock index options was 0.0798 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.2038 million contracts [1]. II. Option PCR - The trading volume PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.61, with a month-on-month change of -0.15; the position PCR was reported at 0.88, with a month-on-month change of +0.09. Similar data is provided for other types of options, showing different changes in trading volume PCR and position PCR [2]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 16.99%, with a month-on-month change of -0.90%. Similar data is provided for other types of options, indicating different changes in VIX [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic expectations are strong but the reality is weak. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and in September, exports were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To address external pressure, China has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, while the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is constrained by long - term supply, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, and short - term risks in precious metals should be guarded against [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: In August, China's economic data weakened, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. On October 21, the A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. The AI computing hardware sector soared, while sectors such as coal, gas, and precious metals declined [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions: As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - US government shutdown: On October 15, the US Republican Party's temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate. The release of multiple economic data has been delayed. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] Commodity Market - Overall strategy: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and the risk of price fluctuations is large [4] - Black sector: Still affected by downstream demand expectations, attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - Non - ferrous sector: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - Energy sector: The medium - term supply is considered relatively loose. OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - Chemical sector: The "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [4] - Agricultural products: Driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but need to wait for fundamental signals and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [4] - Precious metals: The market has overreacted in the short term, and the lease rates of gold and silver are relatively high. Short - term price fluctuations should be guarded against, and opportunities to buy on dips can be grasped in the long term [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - Stock market: On October 21, the market strengthened throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. More stocks rose than fell, with over 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising, and the trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02% [6] - International news: On October 21, the Japanese cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru resigned, and Takamachi Sanae was elected as the new prime minister. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks, while the Russian foreign minister said the "immediate cease - fire" plan violated previous agreements [3][6] - Commodity news: On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 3.8%, the largest decline in four years [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [4]. - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand growth, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.36% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 60,391 (- 8,453) lots, and the open interest was 50,388 (+ 2,520) lots. The main contract was about to change, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and China's strong economic resilience in Q3 were the main reasons for the strong performance of the metal sector [2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The 1.4% nickel - ore tender of the Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at CIF43. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area was decreasing, and northern mines were mostly tendering for shipment. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they maintained cautious procurement. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel - ore market remained in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season in local mining areas and production preparations for next year, Indonesian factories started raw - material procurement [3]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,900 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained unchanged at 2,450 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 27,026 (+ 158) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (0) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel (2512) opened at 12,600 yuan/ton and closed at 12,665 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,078 (+ 1,298) lots, and the open interest was 188,332 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel and the metal sector, the main contract of stainless steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The price center shifted slightly upward compared with the previous few trading days but did not break through the key resistance level. The trading volume increased moderately compared with the previous day, but short - term capital inflow was limited, and the rebound lacked real momentum [4]. - **Spot**: Downstream inquiries increased, and quotes rose slightly, but actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, and the overall trading situation improved slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 355 and 655 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 936.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the price fluctuations of upstream non - ferrous metals and energy, and also presents the latest developments in the production and service industries, as well as the current situation of different industrial chains [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Middle - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued the "Action Plan for High - quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry Empowered by Artificial Intelligence in Guangdong Province (2025 - 2027)", supporting enterprises to use various intelligent computing resources for industrial model development, promoting the construction of edge data centers, and emphasizing core software research and the synergy between AI and industrial Internet [1]. Service Industry - The Civil Aviation Administration announced the winter - spring flight schedule for 2025, starting from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with a 1.0% decline in 2024 and a 1.8% decline in 2025. From October 15, global shipping giants collectively raised prices, with freight rates on multiple routes increasing by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container [1]. 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Non - ferrous metals: Gold prices have declined. Energy: International oil prices have continued to fall. Chemicals: PTA prices have slightly decreased [2]. Middle - stream - Chemicals: PX operating rate is at a high level. Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2][3]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have declined. Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 21, the spot price of corn was 2180.0 yuan/ton (- 0.26% year - on - year), eggs were 6.0 yuan/kg (1.69% year - on - year), palm oil was 9306.0 yuan/ton (- 0.60% year - on - year), cotton was 14741.8 yuan/ton (0.35% year - on - year), and the average wholesale price of pork was 17.7 yuan/kg (- 2.80% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of copper was 85788.3 yuan/ton (- 0.25% year - on - year), zinc was 21922.0 yuan/ton (- 1.24% year - on - year), aluminum was 20943.3 yuan/ton (0.14% year - on - year), nickel was 122850.0 yuan/ton (0.23% year - on - year), and another type of aluminum was 17075.0 yuan/ton (0.63% year - on - year) [39]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On October 20, the spot price of rebar was 3131.8 yuan/ton (- 0.29% year - on - year), iron ore was 792.9 yuan/ton (- 1.26% year - on - year), and wire rod was 3295.0 yuan/ton (- 0.68% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan/square meter (- 6.82% year - on - year), natural rubber was 14516.7 yuan/ton (0.58% year - on - year), and the China Plastics City Price Index was 779.6 (- 0.75% year - on - year) [39]. - **Energy**: On October 21, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 57.0 US dollars/barrel (- 4.15% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was 61.0 US dollars/barrel (- 3.65% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas was 3820.0 yuan/ton (2.85% year - on - year), and coal was 797.0 yuan/ton (0.76% year - on - year) [39]. - **Chemicals**: On October 21, the spot price of PTA was 4369.8 yuan/ton (- 2.02% year - on - year), polyethylene was 7076.7 yuan/ton (- 0.79% year - on - year), urea was 1570.0 yuan/ton (- 0.63% year - on - year), and soda ash was 1203.6 yuan/ton (- 1.23% year - on - year) [39]. - **Real Estate**: On October 21, the national cement price index was 133.7 (- 0.80% year - on - year), the building materials composite index was 111.5 (- 0.60% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 91.2 (- 0.18% year - on - year) [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil price has been continuously declining recently under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the fundamentals, the macro - aspect, and geopolitical policies, suppressing the overall energy sector. Due to the key window period of Sino - US and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, macro uncertainties remain, and caution is advised [1] - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows a differentiation pattern where high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there is some support in its structure, but the peak demand season for power generation has ended, and the market has mixed long and short factors, with limited upward driving force based on the current valuation [1] - The recent fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are relatively weak. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and the market supply is abundant. Under the intensifying trade disputes, the shipping and marine fuel demand face potential risks. The downstream demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive to tariff frictions. However, the RFCC unit of Dangote refinery restarted on October 19, and the current operating rate is around 60%. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume from Nigeria in October is 340,000 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with the previous month. If the RFCC unit operates stably, the local supply pressure is expected to ease [2] Group 3: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - There are no specific strategies for cross - varieties, cross - periods, spot - futures, options [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.11% at 2,647 yuan/ton during the day session. The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.42% at 3,072 yuan/ton during the day session [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report takes a neutral view of copper prices, with an expected trading range of RMB 81,600/ton to RMB 86,600/ton this week [7] Core View of the Report - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, strong precious metal prices, and frequent disruptions at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. The overall demand on the demand side is difficult to improve significantly, and copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 21, 2025, the Shanghai Copper main contract opened at RMB 85,220/ton and closed at RMB 85,400/ton, up 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at RMB 85,300/ton and closed at RMB 85,020/ton, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - On the previous day, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at par to a premium of RMB 100/ton, with an average premium of RMB 50, down RMB 10 from the previous day. The copper price ranged from RMB 85,560 - 85,900/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was divided. High copper prices suppressed purchasing willingness, and it is expected that the demand will not improve under high prices, and the spot premium will remain under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical risks are easing as European leaders support a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations. Japan's new female Prime Minister, Takamori Sanae, is considering a supplementary budget to address high prices [3] Mine - end - BHP's Escondida copper mine produced 328,900 tons in Q3 2025, an 8% year - on - year increase and unchanged quarter - on - quarter. The increase was due to record processing volume and improved recovery, partially offset by lower ore grades. The 2026 fiscal year production guidance remains at 1.15 - 1.25 million tons, and the expected annual ore grade is about 0.85% [4] Smelting and Import - In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,079.92 tons, a 2.67% month - on - month increase and a 14.84% year - on - year increase. Japan and Thailand were the top two import sources [5] Consumption - In September 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. The operating rates of domestic refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded last week but were still below pre - holiday levels and down over 15 percentage points year - on - year. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and the overall recovery space is limited [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 137,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,641 tons to 37,678 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [6] Arbitrage and Options - Arbitrage: Put on hold - Options: Short put @ RMB 81,000/ton [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core View - Overseas premiums for zinc have strengthened further, and the export profit of refined zinc in China has continued to expand. The previous bearish logic for zinc prices has begun to change due to macro - favorable factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $230.29 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 21,940 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 21,910 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 21,940 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,915 yuan/ton and closed at 21,970 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 108,521 lots, and the open interest was 130,442 lots. The highest price was 22,045 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,875 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, a change of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,275 tons, a change of - 50 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - Overseas premiums have strengthened, and the export profit of refined zinc in China has expanded. Domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, leading to a decline in domestic TC. Although imported ores are still expensive due to the domestic - foreign zinc price ratio, their processing fees may also be adjusted downward. The domestic market remains in surplus, but with the opening of the export window, the accumulation of social inventory is expected to be less than expected. The comprehensive smelting profit has narrowed, and if this situation persists or the sulfuric acid price drops, smelting enthusiasm may be dampened, and domestic supply pressure is expected to ease [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The caustic soda market has a stable - to - falling spot price, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,699 yuan/ton (- 3), the East China basis was - 69 yuan/ton (+ 3), and the South China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit was - 12 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 713 yuan/ton (- 91), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 553 yuan/ton (- 14), and the PVC export profit was - 0.8 US dollars/ton (- 0.2) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC factory inventory was 36.0 tons (- 2.3), the PVC social inventory was 55.6 tons (- 0.1), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 74.73% (- 7.03%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 76.10% (- 2.44%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.14% (- 5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The production enterprise's pre - sales volume was 55.6 tons (- 2.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,375 yuan/ton (- 5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 188 yuan/ton (+ 5) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,280 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,571 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 988.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 216.28 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.33 tons (- 1.79), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.45 tons (+ 0.34), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.40% (- 2.90%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 86.22% (- 0.10%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 66.76% (+ 0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 88.61% (- 1.02%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The supply is abundant with new capacity coming on - stream and some maintenance enterprises resuming production. The demand has recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The export has shown strong growth, but there are potential impacts from anti - dumping investigations [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable - to - falling. The supply is expected to increase slightly with new capacity and the resumption of maintenance enterprises. The demand from the alumina industry has some uncertainties, and the non - aluminum downstream has seen an increase in operation rate. The inventory has decreased, and there is cost support [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Wait - and - see - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract when the spread of V01 - 05 is high - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity spread: None [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.36% to close at 3916.33 points and the ChiNext Index rising 3.02%. Most sector indices increased, with the communication, electronics, and building decoration sectors leading the gains, while only the coal sector closed lower. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was approximately 1.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.47% to 46924.74 points [1]. - In the futures market, the basis of IC and IM rebounded, and both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [1]. - In the short term, the market is likely to continue the pattern of shock digestion, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices still operating within the box range formed in September [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The content shows the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance data of major domestic stock indices on October 21, 2025, and October 20, 2025, are presented. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36% from 3863.89 to 3916.33 [12]. - The content also includes the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract was 122466, an increase of 10179, and the open interest was 258766, an increase of 1315 [14]. - The basis data of stock index futures for different contracts (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are given, such as the current - month contract basis of the IF was - 19.27, a decrease of 0.85 [38]. - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures are presented, including the spread between the next month and the current month, the next quarter and the current month, etc. For example, the spread between the next month and the current month of the IF was - 11.00, an increase of 2.00 [43] - There are also various figures related to stock index futures, such as the open interest of different contracts, the latest open - interest ratio, and the net open interest of foreign investors in different contracts, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][14][15]