Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unavailable 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is experiencing a situation where the futures market shows range - bound fluctuations, and the spot market continues to be in a state of wait - and - see. The current supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak on both sides. With unclear oil price trends and limited market drivers, the futures market is likely to continue its range - bound operation [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 28, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,517 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 138,975 lots, up 2,727 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 172,555 lots, up 4,566 lots [2]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were as follows: Northeast: 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,450 - 3,800 yuan/ton; South China: 3,490 - 3,510 yuan/ton; East China: 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton. The price in the Shandong market dropped yesterday, while the asphalt spot prices in other regions remained generally stable. The wait - and - see sentiment in the asphalt spot market was still strong due to weak demand, and the overall trading atmosphere was average [2]. - Currently, the supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak on both sides. Although the growth of the supply side is limited, the rigid demand shows little improvement, and the speculative demand is also weak. This week, the inventories at refineries and social terminals decreased, and the overall pressure was limited [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to move in a range. There are no strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]

甲醇日报 | 2025-08-29 港口库存进一步快速累积 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨（-30），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润750元/吨（+53）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2055元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差282元/吨（-9），内蒙南线2080元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2325元/吨（+0），鲁 南基差152元/吨（+1）；河南2230元/吨（+0），河南基差57元/吨（-1）；河北2265元/吨（+0），河北基差152元/吨（-1）。 隆众内地工厂库存333393吨（+22600），西北工厂库存214500吨（+16500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单216985吨（+9615）， 西北工厂待发订单113300吨（+8100）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2232元/吨（-18），太仓基差-141元/吨（-19），CFR中国258美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-26元 /吨（+8），常州甲醇2430元/吨；广东甲醇2255元/吨（-10），广东基差-118元/吨（-11）。隆众港口总库存1299250吨 （+223290），江苏港口库存671500吨（+124000），浙江 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-29 库存小幅降低，碳酸锂基本面表现仍较好 市场分析 2025-08-28，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于77800元/吨，收于78140元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-2.33%。当日 成交量为805585手，持仓量为347063手，前一交易日持仓量351322手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为3900元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单28957手，较上个交易日变化1480手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价77500-82500元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1600元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价77000-78400元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1600元/吨。6%锂精矿价格880美元/吨，较前一日变化-40美元/吨。据 SMM数据，碳酸锂现货价格继续走低。由于部分下游材料厂前期已进行一定程度备货，本周采购规模较上周有所 收缩。当前下游整体采购心态趋于谨慎，普遍观望以待价格进一步回落。目前处于"金九银十"传统旺季阶段，下 游需求仍具备一定刚性支撑。 根据最新统计周度数据，周度产量降低108吨至19030吨，以锂辉石生产产量小幅增加，以云母生产产量小幅降低 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Short allocation choice among non - ferrous metal varieties. [6] 2. Report's Core View - With the decline of the absolute price, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, but supply remains abundant and social inventory continues to rise. The increase in import TC, sufficient raw material inventory of smelters, and high smelting profits maintain smelting enthusiasm, keeping supply pressure unchanged. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains, and if the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$7.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -30 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 22,210 yuan/ton, closes at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 156,406 lots, and the open interest is 114,628 lots. The highest price is 22,220 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 22,085 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 144,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price drops, downstream procurement enthusiasm slightly recovers, and the spot discount also slightly recovers. However, supply is still sufficient, and social inventory continues to climb. [5] - **Cost**: Import TC continues to rise, with the common ore price reaching $110 per ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product benefits, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. The decline in zinc prices has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. [5] - **Consumption**: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face great pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost - end: Overnight crude oil prices dropped significantly and continued to decline during Asian trading hours. The 50% tariff imposed by the US on India led to a bearish outlook on crude oil demand, and API inventory data showed an unexpected inventory build in the US, pressuring oil prices. For PX, China's PX load is gradually recovering, and the PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to a loose balance. Although the near - month PX floating price has weakened, PXN has support due to low inventory and new PTA device demand. For TA, PTA maintenance has increased, improving supply - demand, and the September balance sheet will shift from a loose balance to significant de - stocking. The reduction of September contracts by Hengli may cause supply - demand tension in South China [2]. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.0% (up 0.6% month - on - month), showing signs of recovery. Export shipments and domestic sales stocking are increasing. The load of weaving and texturing is on the rise, with the peak expected in September. Currently, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and profitability is improving. The bottle - chip market has slow de - stocking, and the load is expected to recover in September. For PF, the production profit is 107 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the average load has increased to 91.9%. The downstream load is rising, and inventory is being depleted. For PR, the spot processing fee is 297 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month), and major factories will maintain production cuts in August, with the load expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral: PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. Continue to monitor the PX devices of Shenghong and Zhejiang Petrochemical. For PX, the concentrated restart of PX devices in August and increased PTA maintenance have weakened the fundamentals, but low inventory supports PXN. For TA, the improvement in supply - demand due to PTA maintenance in August and the shift to de - stocking in September, along with potential supply - demand tension in South China, require attention to the return of maintenance devices. For PF, demand has slightly improved, and inventory is being depleted, but the willingness to chase rising raw material prices is low. For PR, major factories have extended maintenance plans, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to range - bound trading after recovery. Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.335MEG2601. Cross - period: No relevant strategies [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures 1 - 4 show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spreads, as well as the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures 5 - 8 show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures 9 - 11 show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Figures 12 - 16 show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures 17 - 22 show the weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures 23 - 36 show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of different filaments, and the profits of different filaments [47][49][66] PF Detailed Data - Figures 37 - 46 show the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn startup rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn startup rate, and processing fees [70][77][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures 49 - 56 show the polyester bottle - chip load, factory bottle - chip inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and month - to - month spreads [86][93][96]

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-29 股债跷跷板效应强烈，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-28 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, domestic cotton supply is tightening. With the arrival of the peak season and the possibility of a scramble for new cotton, Zhengzhou cotton futures may show a volatile and upward trend before the large - scale listing of new cotton. Medium - term, due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the new year, the futures market will face significant pressure during the centralized listing period. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the peak season. If the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, Zhengzhou cotton may still decline. Long - term, cotton prices are expected to be positive. After the seasonal pressure eases, it is advisable to look for opportunities to go long on dips [4]. Summary According to the Directory Tariff Policy Impact Analysis - On May 12, China and the US issued a joint statement in Geneva, canceling 91% of the mutually imposed tariffs. However, the overall tariff level on Chinese textiles in the US remains high, and there is still an additional 25% tariff on US cotton imported by China. The extension of the tariff truce for 90 days has a limited positive impact on export trade. The US - India trade friction also affects the cotton market. India's temporary cancellation of cotton import tariffs has limited positive effects due to the short time period [9][10][14]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global - In August, the USDA significantly reduced the global cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season in its supply - demand report, changing the supply - demand situation from loose to tight. However, this adjustment is controversial as it may not fully reflect the production potential of some countries and lacks strong support on the demand side [15]. United States - The NASS's August report shows a reduction in cotton planting and harvest areas in the US, with the 25/26 season's production dropping to 288 tons. Exports and ending stocks are also down, improving the supply - demand outlook. But some market participants think the adjustment may be too radical, and the reduction in supply needs further observation [18][19]. Brazil - The USDA predicts that Brazil's new - season cotton production will increase by 27 tons to 397 tons, with export expectations exceeding 3 million tons. Brazil has replaced the US as the world's largest cotton exporter, and its increasing production will further pressure US cotton [27][29]. India - For the 24/25 season, different institutions have different estimates of India's cotton production. For the 25/26 season, the USDA reduced India's consumption and increased ending stocks. Currently, India's new - cotton sowing progress is slower than usual, and there are uncertainties in the final planting area and output [32]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA - In August, the USDA increased China's new - season cotton production and consumption while reducing imports and ending stocks. However, it may still underestimate China's cotton production [35]. BCO - The Cotton Information Network continued to lower China's ending stocks. For the 24/25 season, production remained stable, imports decreased, and consumption increased. For the 25/26 season, production increased, imports decreased, and consumption remained stable, with ending stocks also decreasing [38]. Production - Domestic institutions' estimates of China's total cotton production are around 6.9 million tons, but the market expects a higher output, especially in Xinjiang, where a bumper harvest is likely [41]. Import - Due to limited additional import quotas and high domestic production, China's cotton imports have been low. The recent issuance of 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty import quotas is unlikely to ease the short - term supply shortage in Xinjiang [44]. Inventory - China's domestic cotton commercial inventory has been decreasing rapidly and is at a historically low level, which strongly supports domestic cotton prices [46]. Textile Industry Chain - Since August, the demand side has improved marginally, but the improvement is limited. The peak - season demand may not be strong. Yarn mills' sales have improved slightly, but profits are still poor. Weaving mills' orders have increased slightly, and their raw - material procurement enthusiasm is limited [52]. Future Cotton Market Outlook ICE US Cotton - The new US tariffs are not conducive to global textile trade. India's temporary cancellation of cotton import tariffs has limited positive effects. The USDA's adjustment of the supply - demand situation is beneficial to cotton prices, but the reduction in production needs further verification. In the short term, ICE US cotton may be trapped in the 65 - 70 cent trading range. In the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to the realization of the production - reduction expectation [60]. Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton - The "anti - involution" in China has ended, and the tariff truce has been extended for 90 days, but macro risks remain. The short - term supply shortage persists, and the peak - season demand improvement provides support for cotton prices. However, the large - scale listing of new cotton may bring hedging pressure. In the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to tariff policies and the realization of the domestic production - increase expectation [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, and the futures market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of commodities such as coking coal. The polysilicon futures market is influenced by both weak reality and anti - involution policy expectations, with the current policy situation unclear and the market expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [1][7] - For industrial silicon, the spot price has slightly declined, and the market is in a state where the consumption side is in a stalemate of low - price transactions, and the supply side inventory has decreased slightly. For polysilicon, the spot price is stable, but the supply has increased in July - August, and the consumption side's production arrangement is average, resulting in a pattern of inventory accumulation [1][2][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2511 of industrial silicon futures opened at 8525 yuan/ton and closed at 8525 yuan/ton, a change of - 135 yuan/ton (- 1.56%) compared with the previous day's settlement. The closing position of the main contract was 275,558 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,709 lots, a decrease of 113 lots compared with the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon has slightly decreased. The prices of some silicon products in various regions have declined, and the social inventory has decreased by 0.2 tons to 543,000 tons compared with last week [1] - **Consumption Side**: The price of organic silicon DMC is 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of main organic silicon products is close to the enterprise cost line, and the market is in a stalemate of low - price transactions, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [2] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures opened at 50,915 yuan/ton and closed at 48,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.89%. The position of the main contract reached 154,537 lots, and the trading volume was 502,410 lots [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The supply increased significantly from July to August, and the inventory is in an accumulating pattern. The production arrangement of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components on the consumption side is average. There is a possibility of industry self - disciplined production reduction in September, which may relieve the supply pressure to some extent [7] - **Terminal Consumption**: After the previous rush to install, the domestic installation performance from June to July was average. In July, the newly - added photovoltaic installation in the country was 11.64GW, a year - on - year decrease of 44.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 18.9% [7] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [9]

股债调整，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-27，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了379 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - For soybeans, the policy continues to promote soybean auction sales, increasing supply pressure, while demand is weak. The dynamic of Sino-US trade relations in the imported soybean market may affect the long - term supply pattern, and domestic supply - demand is also influenced by policy and imported soybeans. For peanuts, new - season planting area has a slight increase, and the total output is expected to remain high. Short - term supply has slowed due to weather in Henan, and the long - term market depends on weather and demand [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2511 contract yesterday was 3935.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00 yuan/ton (-0.98%) from the previous day. - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 305, up 39 (+32.14%) from the previous day. In the Northeast market, soybean prices were stable with a downward trend. New - season soybean growth is smooth, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. As new beans approach the market and state - reserve old grains are released, supply pressure may become prominent [1][2] Market Information - In Heilongjiang, prices in some regions dropped, such as in Harbin, the price was 2.12 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; in Shuangyashan, it was 2.11 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin; in Jiamusi, it was 2.10 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. Prices in some other regions remained flat [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7800.00 yuan/ton, down 34.00 yuan/ton (-0.43%) from the previous day. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8420.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan/ton (-0.59%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 300.00, up 34.00 (+12.78%) month - on - month. The national average price of general old peanut kernels was 4.24 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. New peanut prices in various markets continued to decline weakly [4] Market Information - A Henan oil factory started purchasing oil peanuts at a contract price of about 7300 yuan/ton. New - season peanut planting area has a slight increase, and the total output is expected to remain high. Due to the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, new peanut moisture and price are unstable, suppressing purchasing enthusiasm. Bad weather in Henan has led to high moisture in peanuts, reducing the short - term supply [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4][5]