Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The spot price of lithium carbonate is weakly stable, and the futures market opened high and closed low. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is good, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. If the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens later, the futures market may decline [1][3] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 72,600 yuan/ton and closed at 72,680 yuan/ton, with a 0.50% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 270,327 lots, and the open interest was 192,931 lots (the previous day's open interest was 207,463 lots). The basis was 200 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 35,180 lots, a change of - 1,538 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, also a change of - 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 818 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Downstream material factories have low psychological expectations, and the overall market trading activity is average. New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and the total output of lithium carbonate in October is expected to continue to grow. In terms of demand, both the commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand. Overall, in October, although the supply is growing steadily, there is a stage of tight supply [1] Policy News - On October 13, at a press conference, the General Administration of Customs stated that the market share of domestic self - owned brands of electric vehicles in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 59.5%, showing a significant increase [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and selling hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period and cross - variety operations [3]

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-15 烧碱区域分化，关注下游采购 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4692元/吨（-29）；华东基差-92元/吨（+9）;华南基差-32元/吨（-1）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4660元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-12元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-622元/吨（+153）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-538元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润19.3美元/吨（+0.7）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.4万吨（+8.4）；PVC社会库存55.7万吨（+1.9）；PVC电石法开工率81.76%（+1.75%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.54%（+1.33%）；PVC开工率80.80%（+1.63%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量58.3万吨（-19.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2428元/吨（-36）；山东32%液碱基差166元/吨（+36）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade events are volatile, with China taking a strong stance in the trade war, leading to a change from morning's volume - shrinking decline to afternoon's volume - expanding decline in the market. The market shows a defensive trend, with high - priced stocks falling and low - priced leading stocks rising. Hot sectors are in adjustment, and cyclical sectors are expected to stabilize and rebound. The strategy of earning basis spread can be gradually implemented [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Trade Situation**: Domestically, the Premier emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and improve the industrial ecosystem. Internationally, the US implemented final measures for a 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and China countered by banning transactions with 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices [1] - **Index Adjustment**: In the spot market, A - share indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62% to 3865.23 points and the ChiNext Index down 3.99%. Banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while communication, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, Powell hinted at a possible halt in balance - sheet shrinkage and a potential 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month. US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44% to 46270.46 points [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IM rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Due to China's strong stance in the trade war, the market showed a defensive trend. High - priced stocks continued to fall, low - priced leading stocks rebounded, and cyclical sectors are expected to stabilize. The strategy of earning basis spread can be gradually implemented [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][10][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2955.98, down 3.99%. Other major indexes also showed varying degrees of decline [14] - **Market Volume and Margin Trading**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 188092, an increase of 19813, and the open interest was 284388, an increase of 1029 [17] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IM rebounded. For instance, the basis of IF's current - month contract was 1.34, an increase of 9.72 [38] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The report provides data on the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, including the spread between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, and the next - season and current - month [47][48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the pig market, the pre - holiday stocking during the Double Festival was lackluster, with limited overall demand growth. The October holiday affected the pig slaughter schedule, leading to an accelerated post - holiday slaughter rhythm by group farms and concentrated slaughter by散户. The supply pressure is gradually being released, and the demand side is expected to decline in the short term. The oversupply situation in the pig market is unlikely to change in the short term [2] - In the egg market, after the holiday, egg prices dropped rapidly. Traders were cautious in purchasing, and all sectors accumulated inventory passively. The consumer terminal has returned to the off - season normal demand this week, with no short - term positive factors. All sectors are mainly digesting the previous inventory, and the consumption demand has declined significantly. During the seasonal off - season, the large supply pressure suppresses the spot price, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract yesterday was 11,450 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton or 2.92% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The ex - ternary live hog price in Henan was 11.10 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.20 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.43 yuan/kg, unchanged. The spot basis in Henan was LH11 - 350, down 335; in Jiangsu, it was LH11 - 250, down 335; in Sichuan, it was LH11 - 1020, down 325 [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 14, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.92, up 0.22 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.86, up 0.25 points. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 18.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 66.05 yuan/kg, down 0.4%; mutton was 61.85 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; eggs were 7.60 yuan/kg, down 2.1%; white - striped chicken was 17.66 yuan/kg, up 0.6% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract yesterday was 2,852 yuan/500 kilograms, up 44 yuan or 1.57% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: The egg spot price in Liaoning was 2.71 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 2.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.42 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD11 - 142, down 44; in Shandong, it was JD11 - 102, down 44; in Hebei, it was JD11 - 432, down 44 [3] - Inventory: On October 14, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.73 days, down 0.21 days or 10.82%; the circulation - link inventory was 1.77 days, down 0.20 days or 10.15% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core View - The soybean market shows a tight supply - demand relationship due to potential frost damage to the yet - to - be - harvested soybeans in Northeast China and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the peanut market has limited price increase due to weak demand despite supply changes in different regions [3][4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 3953.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.00 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible bean spot is A11 + 87, an increase of 8 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] - Market information: New - season soybeans in the Northeast market are increasing in supply, with price polarization. Low - protein common beans are 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein beans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and 40%+ protein beans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of tower - grain beans also vary by protein content. Enterprises are actively purchasing, and the new - grain price is expected to stabilize in the short term [2] - Weather impact: Frost is expected in Northeast China around October 18, which may affect the yield and quality of soybeans. Traders are actively buying, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a tight supply - demand relationship and rising purchase prices [3] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7864.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.00 yuan/ton (- 0.48%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts is 8360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) from the previous day. The spot basis is PK11 + 336.00, an increase of 38.00 (+ 12.75%) from the previous day [3] - Market information: The average price of common peanuts in the national market is 4.19 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills' contract procurement prices for common and oil - used peanuts have limited arrivals. Rain in Henan affects new - peanut supply, while supply in the Northeast is increasing, but price increase lacks demand support, and some processing plants are closed [4] Group 5: Figures and Data Sources - Figures include those related to soybean and peanut futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, production, consumption, inventory, import volume, planting profit, and planting cost [7] - Data sources mainly include Flush, Steel Union Data, and the National Bureau of Statistics, as well as the Huatai Futures Research Institute [9][11][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the US government shutdown, the US soybean and domestic soybean meal markets lack clear data guidance and are mainly oscillating. Domestically, the supply of downstream soybeans remains abundant, with continuous arrivals of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Policy changes need to be closely monitored [2] - For corn, new corn is starting to be listed in parts of Northeast China. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn production has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the new grain is listed [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2902 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2348 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.84%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Market News**: Brazil exported 216.6 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with a daily average export of 27.1 million tons, a 26% increase from the daily average in October last year. As of October 9, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 soybean season reached 14% [1] 3.2 Market Analysis for Soybean Meal - The US government shutdown has led to a lack of data updates, and the market is oscillating. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is sufficient, with high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is going well. Policy changes need to be monitored [2] 3.3 Strategy for Soybean Meal - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.4 Market News and Important Data for Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2093 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.05%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2385 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.67%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton [3] - **Market News**: Brazil exported 260.8 million tons of corn in the first two weeks of October, with a daily average export of 32.6 million tons, a 12% increase from the daily average in October last year [3] 3.5 Market Analysis for Corn - New corn is starting to be listed in Northeast China. The opening price is slightly higher than last year, but the overall production has increased, and the purchase price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation [4][5] 3.6 Strategy for Corn - Cautiously bearish [6]

流动性日报 | 2025-10-14 市场流动性概况 基本金属板块成交5679.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.02%；持仓金额5231.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.81%； 成交持仓比为96.93%。 贵金属板块成交10430.89亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.23%；持仓金额5251.45亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.24%；成 交持仓比为274.25%。 能源化工板块成交4734.89亿元，较上一交易日变动+33.79%；持仓金额4355.78亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.85%； 成交持仓比为86.64%。 农产品板块成交3241.07亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.05%；持仓金额5418.40亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.64%；成 交持仓比为56.55%。 黑色建材板块成交2515.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.04%；持仓金额3309.51亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.32%； 成交持仓比为76.89%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 2025-10-13，股指板块成交9646.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.85%；持仓金额14070.23 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The ore price is still in a game stage. Domestic mines in northern China are affected by rainfall, and alumina plants are facing losses, so it is difficult to give a premium to the ore end. The rainy season in Guinea is coming to an end, but the port arrival volume has not recovered, the port inventory has slightly declined, and the price of imported ore is relatively firm. Currently, alumina plants have not triggered production cuts. Later, attention should be paid to the fluctuation of imported ore prices. If the ore price does not fall, the situation of cash - flow losses cannot be maintained for a long time, and enterprises in Henan with insufficient domestic ore supply will face greater difficulties. From the perspective of Henan, there is no negative impact on the consumption end. Although the overall operating rate has declined year - on - year, the output has increased year - on - year, and the growth rate is higher than the national average. Affected by capacity expansion, local processing enterprises may face problems such as insufficient orders, low operating rates, and low processing fees, but in actual production, they have not shown cash - flow losses through methods such as increasing the amount of scrap added and increasing scale to reduce costs, and the overall output is still guaranteed [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Henan Alumina in Operation with Imported Ore Capacity Faces Pressure - Henan's alumina built - in capacity is 13.07 million tons, operating capacity is 8.9 million tons, with an operating rate of 68%, the lowest in the country where the national average is 85.6%. There are currently only 5 alumina factories in production, all of which are large - scale group enterprises [9]. - The production cost in Henan is also the highest in the country. The current cash cost of producing with domestic ore is 2,940 yuan/ton, and with imported ore is 3,100 yuan/ton. According to the current market price, domestic ore production breaks even, while imported ore production faces cash - flow losses [9]. - The reason why production cuts have not been triggered is not that the price is too low, but mainly because the loss period is not long enough. Calculated according to the cash cost and the alumina website quotation, the production with imported ore in Henan started to lose money in mid - to - early September, and the three - network average price of the long - term agreement in September is 3,100 yuan/ton. From the factory's perspective, cash losses will start in October, so production cuts have not been triggered at present [9]. - Alumina winter storage has no impact on Henan. The monthly alumina output in Henan is 650,000 tons, while the monthly electrolytic aluminum output is only 150,000 tons. The local alumina supply is sufficient and the transportation distance is short. Even in case of extreme weather in winter, the impact is extremely limited. Moreover, the relocation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Henan is the mainstream trend [10]. 2. Research on Enterprises in Henan's Alumina Industry - Enterprise 1: A Henan alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 2.6 million tons. It has 4 roasting furnaces, with 3 in operation at present, with a daily output of 1,800 tons. The annual sales of non - metallurgical alumina and aluminum hydroxide reach 1.7 million tons. It uses more than 100,000 tons of domestic ore per month, accounting for about 25%, which is a relatively low level in Henan. The bauxite inventory is 1.5 months. There is no cash - flow loss in September, and the high cost is mainly due to the high - priced ore in the previous period in the current bauxite inventory [11]. - Enterprise 2: A Henan alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 1.4 million tons. It shut down a 400,000 - ton imported ore production line in the first half of the year and has no plan to resume production. Currently, all 1 million tons use local domestic ore from its own mines, and the probability of further shutdown is very low. It may reduce production due to environmental protection factors such as natural gas in winter, but the impact is limited. Lithium extraction has been carried out in the production process, with an annual output of more than 1,000 tons of lithium, and the cost is higher than that of lithium extraction from salt lakes [11]. - Enterprise 3: A Henan electrolytic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 360,000 tons operating at full capacity. 70,000 tons of production capacity has been transferred to Ningxia, and the remaining capacity will also be transferred later. It sells 100% of its products through long - term agreements. The alumina raw material inventory is 5 days, but the tailings are not very useful, and the actual available inventory is 2 days. It does not carry out winter storage, and the nearest alumina plant is only 20 kilometers away, so it can ensure supply even in case of extreme weather [11]. 3. Henan's Processing Enterprises' Dilemma Does Not Equal Poor Consumption - The supply of aluminum elements and the supply of aluminum processed products are in two different dimensions. Since September, it has entered the traditional seasonal consumption peak season. From the perspective of aluminum elements, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 1.14% year - on - year, the daily output has increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by 2.54% year - on - year and 1.23% month - on - month, which is the main reason for the decline in the operating rate and processing fees felt by processing plants [24]. - Aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils are the most mainstream primary processed products, accounting for a large proportion of aluminum consumption. As of now, the output of aluminum rods in 2025 is about 13.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.8%. The cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils from January to August is 9.637 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils in Henan from January to August is 4.023 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in August is 3.7% [24]. - Henan is a concentrated area for aluminum strip production in China, accounting for 39% of the national output. Currently, the operating rate of local enterprises is generally lower than in previous years, and enterprise profitability is difficult. However, this is not due to poor consumption. The output growth rate of aluminum strips and foils in Henan has long been higher than the national average, but the processing fees need to compete with integrated electrolytic aluminum processing plants, resulting in a poor feeling for Henan's processing plants [24]. 4. Research on Henan's Aluminum Processing Enterprises - Enterprise 3: An aluminum strip processing enterprise. It purchases 40% of the molten aluminum from local aluminum plants at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the Yangtze River price, and the remaining 60% is aluminum ingots for easy adjustment of production. Its built - in capacity is 70,000 - 80,000 tons, and the current operating rate is over 60%, which has increased compared with the off - season, but was 100% in the same period last year. The overall operating rate of aluminum strip and foil enterprises in Gongyi is 50% - 60%, which is difficult for factories to make a profit. The discount for molten aluminum procurement has been narrowing year by year, and electrolytic aluminum plants are in a strong position in sales. If aluminum ingots are remelted, about 40 cubic meters of natural gas are needed, and it is rare for the discount of aluminum ingot procurement in Gongyi to exceed 200 yuan/ton. There are also losses in remelting, and the electrolyte loss for purchasing molten aluminum is about 150 yuan/ton. 20% of the downstream consumption is exported through traders, and the normal finished product inventory is 1,000 tons. If the inventory exceeds the normal level, the operating rate will be considered to be reduced [25]. - Enterprise 2: An aluminum rod processing enterprise. It purchases 100% of the molten aluminum from surrounding electrolytic aluminum plants at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the Yangtze River price. Previously, the discount could reach 200 yuan/ton. Due to long - term agreements, it cannot adjust production and operates at 100% throughout the year. The electrolyte loss is 0.5%, and the total loss in the production process is 1.2%. The maximum annual loss is 100 - 200 yuan/ton, and currently it is at the break - even point. Since there are no costs such as bank interest, depreciation, and land, it still makes a profit. There were originally 4 aluminum rod processing enterprises in the park, and now only this one remains. It needs to compete with integrated electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod plants in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, so the competition is difficult. Local downstream processing enterprises often expand production through loans to reduce costs, but the processing profit has been declining year by year, and the method of blind expansion is unsustainable [26]. 5. Summary Alumina - Henan's alumina built - in capacity is 13.07 million tons, operating capacity is 8.9 million tons, with an operating rate of 68%, the lowest in the country where the national average is 85.6% [37]. - The production cost in Henan is also the highest in the country. The current cash cost of producing with domestic ore is 2,940 yuan/ton, and with imported ore is 3,100 yuan/ton. According to the current market price, domestic ore production breaks even, while imported ore production faces cash - flow losses [37]. - The three - network average price of the long - term agreement in September is 3,100 yuan/ton. From the factory's perspective, cash losses will start in October, so production cuts have not been triggered at present [37]. Downstream Consumption - Since September, it has entered the traditional seasonal consumption peak season. From the perspective of aluminum elements, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 1.14% year - on - year, the daily output has increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by 2.54% year - on - year and 1.23% month - on - month, which is the main reason for the decline in the operating rate and processing fees felt by processing plants [38]. - Henan is a concentrated area for aluminum strip production in China, accounting for 39% of the national output. Currently, the operating rate of local enterprises is generally lower than in previous years, and the overall operating rate is about 60%. However, the cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils from January to August is 4.023 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in August is 3.7% [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The port basis of methanol has strengthened rapidly due to factors such as the intensification of Sino - US trade conflicts and the potential impact on Iranian methanol vessel berthing. The support from the inland to the port has weakened as the coal - based methanol operating rate has rebounded and inland inventory has increased from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have seen varying degrees of decline in operating rates [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report includes multiple figures related to methanol basis, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (MA2601 - MA2605, etc.) [7][9][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, as well as the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol and the MTO profit in East China [25][29][33] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) is presented [34][36][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report provides data on regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and between different regions like Guangdong and East China [38][45][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][57] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 at low prices - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 at high prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral to bullish [3] - Red dates: Neutral [7] Core Views - Apple prices are oscillating downward, and red dates' futures and spot prices are stable but weak. For apples, the supply of new-season late Fuji is limited due to weather, and prices are expected to show a significant polarization. For red dates, the new season's harvest is approaching, and the market is in a transition period with relatively stable prices and uncertain future trends [1][2][3][4][6][7] Market News and Key Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,638 yuan/ton, a change of -106 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.21%. - Spot: The price of semi-commodity late Fuji above 70 in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 3.85 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was -938, a change of +106 from the previous day. - Recent news: The supply of red late Fuji in the new season's main producing areas is limited. The prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu are 0.5 - 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year. The demand in the sales areas has not improved after the holidays. Merchants are cautious overall but active in purchasing high-quality goods. This week, the late Fuji in the eastern and western regions will be on the market successively, and the price polarization is obvious [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 11,130 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.13%. - Spot: The price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was -1,630, a change of +15 from the previous day. - Recent news: The new-season red dates in the Xinjiang main producing area are about to be harvested, and the harvest time may be about a week earlier than last year. Inland merchants are going to the producing areas to prepare for the new season, and the price range for orchard reservation has expanded [4] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price oscillated downward. The supply of red late Fuji in the main producing areas was limited due to slow coloring caused by rain. The prices in various regions increased year-on-year, and the price difference between regions and qualities was significant. The demand in the sales areas did not improve after the holidays. Merchants were cautious overall but active in purchasing high-quality goods. This week, the late Fuji in the eastern and western regions will be on the market successively, and the price polarization is obvious. In the future, attention should be paid to the game between merchants' purchasing mentality and fruit farmers' selling mentality [2] Red Dates - The red dates futures price oscillated narrowly yesterday. The red dates are in a critical period of transition between peak and off-peak seasons and "new and old seasons." The grey dates in the Xinjiang main producing area are about to be harvested, and merchants have started to make small-scale orchard reservations. Affected by the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the sales areas' spot market this week is average, with mainly rigid demand from downstream buyers. The spot price fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is relatively light. The inventory depletion rate of 36 sample points is flatter than in previous years, and the inventory pressure remains. The supply-demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The output of red dates in the 2024 production season was large, the inventory was high, but the quality was poor. It is expected that the new-season output will be between 560,000 and 620,000 tons. The growth of red dates has not shown unexpected changes, and the weather is conducive to sugar accumulation and quality improvement. Currently, the quality of red dates is better than the same period last year [6] Strategies Apple - Neutral to bullish. Currently, the late Fuji is sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large amount of red goods, and the purchasing period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high-quality goods will be stable and firm, with obvious polarization [3] Red Dates - Neutral. Overall, if the output and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the red dates futures price will face a situation of limited upward movement and strong support below, showing an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to consumption, new-season quality, and output changes [7]