Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent market export expectations have been boosted, driving up urea futures. Although there is still significant export space in July, the subsequent domestic demand drive is weak. With high - level urea production and high upstream inventory, future urea supply and demand may remain loose if exports do not exceed last year's total. The cost - side support is average, and the port inventory fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the follow - up export implementation and dynamic changes [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 19, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton (+63). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was - 87 yuan/ton (-63), the Henan basis was - 77 yuan/ton (-63), and the Jiangsu basis was - 77 yuan/ton (-63) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 520,000 tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 600,000 tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20 [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 19, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+0). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 19, 2025, the urea export profit was 1290 yuan/ton (-32). India's NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. August is the export window period, and urea exports continue [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 19, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 43.48% (+1.98%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 49.82% (-11.28%); the urea enterprise's advance order days were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is weak, and the compound fertilizer factory mainly conducts rigid procurement [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 957,400 tons (+69,800), and the port sample inventory was 464,000 tons (-19,000). The port inventory fluctuates slightly [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment has weakened, with steel prices oscillating downward. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the supply - demand pattern is generally loose. The coking coal and coke markets are also in a state of oscillation, with the supply of coke expected to tighten. The power coal market shows a weakening demand, and the pit - mouth coal prices have slightly declined [1][3][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3416 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading was generally weak, with speculative trading being poor. The production and sales of building materials continued to decline, and inventory increased. The production and sales of plates rebounded, but high steel prices affected export orders [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market needs to control steel supply by compressing profits to re - balance supply and demand. However, due to the relatively healthy raw material supply - demand situation, the cost support for steel is strong, so the steel price adjustment space is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating and weak [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties remained stable. The trading volume of port iron ore increased by 14.66% to 115.>. .1 . . . . .. . .1. .. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply increased, while the trading volume of forward - spot iron ore decreased by 7.88. The supply of iron ore increased this week, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand contradiction has increased in the short - term, and the supply - demand pattern is generally loose in the long - term [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures contracts oscillated. Some coking enterprises received environmental protection requirements for 30 - 40% production cuts from August 20th to September 3rd, and steel mills were required to cut production by 20 - 40% from August 30. to September 3rd. The coking coal price was generally stable with a weak trend, and the price of imported Mongolian coal decreased [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coke is expected to tighten at the end of the month, and the coking plants started the seventh round of price hikes. The supply of coking coal is tight, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but the inventory is still at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to be oscillating [7]. Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: The pit - mouth coal prices started to decline, and the demand for thermal coal decreased. The port market sentiment declined, and the import coal had a price advantage [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production area is slowly recovering. In the short - term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory continues to decline slightly, and its basis has stabilized and strengthened recently. From August to September, there are maintenance plans for aromatics in South Korea, and the import pressure has not increased further. The overall downstream operating rate remains high, and the demand is at a seasonal high, which drives the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking range is expected to be limited. - For styrene, the port inventory did not continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and the port pickup volume did not continue to increase. Among the downstream products, the operating rates of EPS and PS have rebounded, and their inventory pressures have been relieved, while ABS still maintains a state of high inventory and low operating rate [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene's main basis is - 87 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot - M2 spread is 5 yuan/ton (+0). Styrene's main basis is 54 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 176 dollars/ton (+0), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 161 dollars/ton (+0). The profit of styrene's non - integrated production is - 327 yuan/ton (+10), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.40 tons (- 0.20), and styrene's East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+12,700), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+5.31), and styrene's operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - Among styrene's downstream products, EPS production profit is 93 yuan/ton (- 160), PS production profit is - 107 yuan/ton (- 60), and ABS production profit is - 66 yuan/ton (+2). EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+0) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - For pure benzene's downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1795 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (- 62), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1386 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 4. Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene. - **Basis and Inter - period**: Carry out positive arbitrage, buy near - month BZ paper goods and sell BZ2603 futures. - **Cross - variety**: Expand the BZN processing fee when it is low in the peak season. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the EB - BZ spread [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [4] - BR is rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The support for natural rubber recently comes from the macro - environment and upstream cost. Rain in Southeast Asian production areas may keep raw material prices firm, but they will fall after the rain stops. The overall supply pressure is small currently, but it is expected to increase at the end of August. The downstream tire开工率 shows a differentiated trend, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the traditional peak season [4] - For BR, the supply is expected to increase next week. The downstream tire开工率 is also differentiated, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price of butadiene is expected to be stable, and the price of surrounding natural rubber can also drive the price of BR [5] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,875 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,690 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,840 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,765 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from 613,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from 794,831 tons in the same period of 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (including exports and new - energy models), an increase of about 42% from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - According to QinRex data, in the first half of 2025, the United States imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; the import of truck and bus tires increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; the import of aircraft tires decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000; the import of motorcycle tires increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; the import of bicycle tires increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 19, 2025, the RU basis was - 975 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,225 yuan/ton (+ 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,241 yuan/ton (+ 185.34), the NR basis was 226.00 yuan/ton (+ 2.00); the price of whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 0 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,350 yuan/ton (+ 50) [3] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.85 Thai baht/kg (- 0.43), the price of Thai glue was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.90 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.15) [3] Operating Rates - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+ 2.56%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (- 0.60%) [3] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (- 10,990.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+ 3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+ 4,234) [3] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 19, 2025, the BR basis was - 140 yuan/ton (- 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 997 yuan/ton (+ 94) [3][4] Operating Rates - The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.52% (- 3.65%) [4] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,990 tons (- 300), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,450 tons (- 700) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - The PVC market remains weak with high supply pressure due to production resumptions, new capacity, and high inventory, while demand is low with weak downstream and export prospects [3] - The caustic soda market sentiment is temporarily stable. Although upstream production is high, there are some potential declines in local areas. Demand is showing positive signs, and inventory pressure is decreasing [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5,001 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1] - Production profit: The calcium carbide method production gross profit was -231 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the ethylene method production gross profit was -540 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the export profit was 18.2 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [1] - Inventory: Factory inventory was 32.7 million tons, down 1.0 million tons; social inventory was 49.3 million tons, up 1.2 million tons [1] -开工率: The overall PVC operating rate was 78.84%, up 1.09% [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume was 79.1 million tons, down 4.1 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Supply: With the return of previous maintenance and new capacity coming online, PVC production is expected to continue to rise, and supply pressure is high [3] - Demand: Downstream product operating rates are low, with only rigid demand. Export orders are decreasing, and after September, export prospects are weak [3] - Inventory: Social inventory is increasing, and the absolute inventory level is high. The 09 contract has large warehouse receipt pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: V09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [5] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,598 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan [1] - Spot price: The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was quoted at 840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 50% liquid caustic soda was quoted at 1,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Production profit: The single - variety profit in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 730.8 yuan/ton, up 40.0 yuan; the comprehensive profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 593.78 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the northwest comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1,377.74 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2] - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 43.78 million tons, down 2.39 million tons; flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.33 million tons, up 0.12 million tons [2] - Operating rate: The overall caustic soda operating rate was 84.10%, down 1.00% [2] - Downstream operating rate: Alumina operating rate was 85.64%, down 0.09%; printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 61.46%, up 2.18%; viscose staple fiber operating rate was 86.04%, up 1.07% [2] Market Analysis - Supply: Although upstream production is high, there are local production cuts and planned maintenance, so future production may decline slightly [4] - Demand: Alumina production is stable, non - aluminum downstream demand is increasing, and downstream inventory replenishment sentiment is improving [4] - Inventory: Enterprise inventory pressure is decreasing [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait - and - see - Inter - period: SH10 - 01 positive spread at low prices - Inter - variety: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The basis of methanol at ports is weak, and ports are in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. The overall overseas methanol operation rate is still high, with only a small amount of maintenance in Iran and the resumption of production at Malaysia's Petronas. The pressure of methanol arrivals in China is increasing, while the maintenance of the Xingxing MTO unit has dragged down demand. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operation rate will gradually increase in late August, which may drive the inventory in inland areas to bottom out and rebound. The downstream formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period structure, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis between spot prices in different regions and the main futures contract, and the price difference between different methanol futures contracts [6][7][11] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][30] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report includes data on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [6][33][34] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display various regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [6][38][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][48][57] Market News and Important Data Inland - The price of Q5500 thermal coal in Ordos is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (-10 yuan). The inland methanol prices are as follows: Inner Mongolia's northern line is 2070 yuan/ton (-10 yuan), with a basis of 279 yuan/ton (-5 yuan); Inner Mongolia's southern line is 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2334 yuan/ton (-11 yuan), with a basis of 143 yuan/ton (-6 yuan); Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 19 yuan/ton (+5 yuan); Hebei is 2300 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 169 yuan/ton (+5 yuan). The inventory of inland factories is 295,573 tons (+1,885 tons), and the inventory of factories in the northwest is 182,500 tons (-3,000 tons). The pending orders of inland factories are 219,365 tons (-21,435 tons), and those of factories in the northwest are 107,000 tons (-15,800 tons) [1] Ports - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2280 yuan/ton (-22 yuan), with a basis of -111 yuan/ton (-17 yuan); CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (-1 US dollar), and the import price difference in East China is 4 yuan/ton (-13 yuan). The price of methanol in Changzhou is 2415 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 2275 yuan/ton (-25 yuan), with a basis of -116 yuan/ton (-20 yuan). The total port inventory is 1,021,800 tons (+96,320 tons), including 548,000 tons in Jiangsu ports (+50,000 tons), 139,000 tons in Zhejiang ports (-5,000 tons), and 213,000 tons in Guangdong ports (+43,000 tons). The downstream MTO operation rate is 83.12% (-0.77%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is -55 yuan/ton (-10 yuan); the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is -340 yuan/ton (-12 yuan); the price difference between Taicang and southern Shandong is -304 yuan/ton (-11 yuan); the price difference between southern Shandong and Taicang is -46 yuan/ton (+11 yuan); the price difference between Guangdong and East China is -185 yuan/ton (-3 yuan); the price difference between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing is -115 yuan/ton (+18 yuan) [2] Strategy - For single - side trading, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell for hedging at high prices. For inter - period and cross - variety trading, it is recommended to wait and see [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand in the asphalt market remains weak, and market sentiment is under pressure. The current supply - demand pattern is generally weak, with limited improvement in rigid demand due to weather and capital factors, and speculative demand is also weak. The social inventory depletion is weaker than the seasonal level. If oil prices continue to fall, the asphalt market price will further decline, and in the short term, the impact of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on the oil market sentiment needs attention [1]. - The strategy for asphalt trading is as follows: the outlook for single - side trading is oscillatory, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On August 19th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3453 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.6% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 219,752 lots, a decrease of 5,528 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 141,976 lots, a decrease of 33,511 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt according to Zhuochuang Information are: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,450 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,490 - 3,530 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. The price in North China increased slightly yesterday, while the spot prices in Shandong and East China decreased, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [1]. Group 4: Strategy Summary - Single - side trading: The outlook is oscillatory [2]. - Inter - period trading: No strategy [2]. - Inter - variety trading: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures trading: No strategy [2]. - Options trading: No strategy [2]. Group 5: Chart Information Summary - There are multiple charts showing various data related to asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventory in refineries and social inventories [3] [10] [17] [20] [22] [27] [29] [35] [36] [37] [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have been oscillating downward, exerting a bearish influence on the cost side of FU and LU. The mid-term oil market balance sheet anticipates an oversupply, but short-term attention should be paid to the progress of talks among Russia, the US, and Ukraine, as changes in the US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and cause additional price fluctuations [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil remain weak. The spot supply is abundant, with high inventories in Singapore's onshore and floating storage. There are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants, and the market lacks upward momentum. As summer ends, the demand from power plants in the Middle East and Egypt is expected to decline, and the high-sulfur fuel oil market may further loosen. However, if the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks is worthy of short-term attention. There have been signs of an increase in Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in July and August. If the negotiations are successful, the US relaxes sanctions on Russia, and Ukraine stops drone attacks, Russia's fuel oil supply may further increase [1]. - The current market pressure on low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production remains at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded. From a mid-term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, supply will be released once the crack spread is appropriate. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. Market Analysis High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spot price of Singapore's high-sulfur 380 fuel oil is presented in Figure 1, and the price of the Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract is shown in Figure 3 [1][4]. - The fundamentals and market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil are weak, with abundant spot supply and high inventories in Singapore's onshore and floating storage. Demand is lackluster except for power plants, and the market lacks upward drivers. After summer, demand from Middle East and Egyptian power plants may decline, potentially further loosening the market. However, if the crack spread adjusts adequately to boost refinery demand, the market structure could stabilize and strengthen [1]. - The progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is crucial. Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments showed an uptick in July and August. Successful negotiations, US sanctions relaxation, and an end to Ukrainian drone attacks could lead to increased Russian fuel oil supply [1]. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spot price of Singapore's low-sulfur fuel oil is presented in Figure 2, and the price of the Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract is shown in Figure 4 [2][4]. - The current market pressure on low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, with no overall shortage expected. Domestic production is low, but overseas supply has recovered. Mid-term, ample production capacity means supply will respond to favorable crack spreads. The shipping industry's carbon-neutral trend will gradually erode low-sulfur fuel oil's market share, creating significant market resistance [2]. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures was down 0.52% at 2,686 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures was up 0.2% at 3,466 yuan/ton [1]. - Figures 7 - 12 show the closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract closing prices, near-month contract spreads, and trading volume and open interest of the main contract and total contracts of the fuel oil FU futures [4][14][17][18]. - Figures 13 - 18 show the closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract prices, near-month contract spreads, and trading volume and open interest of the main contract and total contracts of the low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures [4][30][31][33]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on London dropped 81 cents to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.87% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] - The spokesman for the Commander - in - Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces said that the withdrawal of the US - led international coalition from Iraq was "an achievement of the government", and Iraq was capable of combating terrorism and maintaining national security and stability without external assistance [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [1] - Germany's economy ministry said that the oil transportation route from Russia's Friendship Pipeline to Kazakhstan was briefly interrupted due to Ukraine's attack on relevant infrastructure [1] - If the US maintains higher tariffs on India than on other Asian markets, it will pose risks to Fitch's forecast of India's 6.5% economic growth rate this fiscal year. The US imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on India on August 7, and another 25% tariff will take effect on August 27. Fitch believes that India's IT service companies and domestic - focused industries will be minimally affected, but higher tariffs will pressure Indian companies' operating performance and may bring downward risks to domestic prices of products like steel and chemicals [1] Investment Logic - Before the Russia - US summit, Ukraine has recently increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including key pumping stations of the Friendship Pipeline and several major Russian refineries. The attack has led to the interruption of the southern line of the Friendship Pipeline, stopping Russia's crude oil transportation of about 200,000 barrels per day to Hungary and Slovakia. The drone attack on the Ryazan refinery in Russia has also caused its shutdown, affecting crude oil processing volume and refined oil exports. The tense situation between Russia and Ukraine still has a significant impact on the oil market [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, although the supply has a slight increase with limited impact and the consumption is in the seasonal off - peak but shows signs of improvement, the long - term supply is restricted and the consumption peak season can be expected [6] - For alumina, the spot supply is becoming looser, the risk of cornering the market is reduced, and the ore price is difficult to rise due to the expected surplus and high inventory. The supply is increasing, and the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue [6][7] - For aluminum alloy, the price spread and smelting profit show a seasonal repair trend, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can be concerned [8] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,490 yuan/ton, the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [1] - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,550 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [1] 2. Aluminum Futures - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,580 yuan/ton, closed at 20,545 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,620 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 105,187 lots, and the open interest was 234,699 lots [2] 3. Aluminum Inventory - As of August 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 607,000 tons, with a change of 1.9 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 65,467 tons, with a change of - 25 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] 4. Alumina Spot Price - On August 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,210 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] 5. Alumina Futures - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,178 yuan/ton, closed at 3,120 yuan/ton, with a change of - 79 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 2.47%. The highest price was 3,187 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273,457 lots, and the open interest was 192,727 lots [2] 6. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 19, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] 7. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 49,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4] 8. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,112 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 112 yuan/ton [5] 9. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The supply has a slight increase with limited impact. Consumption is in the off - peak season but shows improvement. The aluminum rod output increases and the inventory decreases. Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots is increasing, the consumption is changing from the off - peak to the peak season, and the downward space of aluminum price is limited [6] - **Alumina**: In East Australia, 30,000 tons were traded at FOB 369 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from a week ago. The warrant inventory increases rapidly, reducing the risk of cornering the market. The ore price is difficult to rise due to the expected surplus and high inventory. The smelting profit exists, and the supply is increasing [6] - **Aluminum alloy**: The price spread of AD2511 - AL2511 contract is - 405 yuan/ton. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can be concerned [8] 10. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - **Arbitrage**: Shanghai aluminum positive spread arbitrage, long AD11 and short AL11 [9]