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丙烯日报:主力下游开工回落,关注成本端扰动-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the cost - side support is insufficient and the upward drive is limited. It is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] 2. Core View of the Report - On the supply side, the restart of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's cracking unit and the maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou and Shanghai Petrochemical's units led to a slight overall increase in propylene start - up. The maintenance of the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China had limited impact on supply. The restart of Hebei Haiwei's PDH unit was postponed, and the external sales volume of propylene products may continue to increase. On the demand side, the start - up of some downstream industries rebounded, but the profit of downstream industries was under pressure due to the rising propylene price. The spread between PP and propylene narrowed, and the downstream was resistant to high - priced raw materials. The start - up rate of the main downstream PP decreased month - on - month. The price of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and the procurement enthusiasm decreased under cost pressure, weakening the expected support for propylene demand. The international oil price rebounded slightly in the short - term, but there was still a long - term pressure of oversupply. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China was tight, and the price of external propane strengthened slightly recently. The report suggests paying attention to cost - side disturbances [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract was 5,798 yuan/ton (-22), the spot price in East China was 5,995 yuan/ton (-5), the spot price in North China was 6,050 yuan/ton (-25), the basis in East China was 197 yuan/ton (+17), the basis in North China was 179 yuan/ton (-43), the start - up rate was 74% (+1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR was 192 US dollars/ton (+18), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 67 US dollars/ton (+11), the import profit was - 354 yuan/ton (-86), and the in - plant inventory was 48,970 tons (+3,930) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The start - up rate of PP powder was 42% (-4.20%), and the production profit was - 310 yuan/ton (+55); the start - up rate of propylene oxide was 75% (+0%), and the production profit was 136 yuan/ton (+91); the start - up rate of n - butanol was 82% (+1%), and the production profit was - 263 yuan/ton (+66); the start - up rate of octanol was 81% (+4%), and the production profit was 72 yuan/ton (+118); the start - up rate of acrylic acid was 77% (+4%), and the production profit was 444 yuan/ton (+4); the start - up rate of acrylonitrile was 81% (+1%), and the production profit was - 443 yuan/ton (+21); the start - up rate of phenol - acetone was 81% (+2%), and the production profit was - 415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: The restart of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's cracking unit and the maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou and Shanghai Petrochemical's units led to a slight overall increase in propylene start - up. The maintenance of the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China had limited impact on supply. The restart of Hebei Haiwei's PDH unit was postponed, and attention should be paid to its restart expectation in the later stage, with the external sales volume of propylene products possibly continuing to increase [2] - **Demand side**: The start - up of some downstream industries rebounded, with significant increases in the start - up rates of acrylic acid and octanol. However, considering the rising propylene price, the downstream profit was under pressure, and the spread between PP and propylene narrowed. The downstream was resistant to high - priced raw materials, and some main powder units reduced their loads or stopped production. The price of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and the procurement enthusiasm decreased under cost pressure, weakening the expected support for propylene demand [2] - **Cost side**: The international oil price rebounded slightly, but there was still a long - term pressure of oversupply. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China was tight, and the price of external propane strengthened slightly recently. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the cost - side support is insufficient and the upward drive is limited. It is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] - **Inter - period**: None [3] - **Inter - variety**: None [3]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:淡季下游开工表现一般-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - With the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing, their operations are gradually resuming, and the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmic arrival of pure benzene at ports has increased pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories and suppressing the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL operations dropping further from a low level, and the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid slightly increasing, but terminal demand remains weak [3]. - Overseas, South Korea's Daehan, Lotte, and Hyundai have officially announced a merger and will shut down Lotte's 1.1 million - ton cracking unit. Attention should be paid to whether Lotte's styrene units in South Korea will stop production. In China, port inventories have risen again. Although styrene is still in a low - operation maintenance stage and the resumption plan has been postponed, downstream operations during the off - season are still low. The operation of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, continues to decline, the operation of PS rebounds but inventory pressure remains, and the finished - product inventory pressure of ABS remains high while its operation stays at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the basis of the pure benzene main contract, the price of the pure benzene main futures contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [7][10][15] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene units, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [18][21][36] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Relevant figures involve the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, the operating rate of pure benzene, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, the operating rate of styrene, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the factory inventory of styrene [38][40][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures include the operating rate and production profit of EPS, the operating rate and production profit of PS, and the operating rate and production profit of ABS [51][56][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures cover the operating rates of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular - spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][71][75]
农产品日报:现货价格上涨,豆粕偏强震荡-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:22
农产品日报 | 2025-11-28 现货价格上涨,豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3055元/吨,较前日变动+40元/吨,幅度+1.33%;菜粕2601合约2469元/吨,较前 日变动+30元/吨,幅度+1.23%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨,较前日变动+20元/吨,现货基差 M01+25,较前日变动-20;江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨,较前日变动+20元/吨,现货基差M01-55,较前日变动-20; 广东地区豆粕现货价格2990元/吨,较前日变动跌+20元/吨,现货基差M01-65,较前日变动-20。福建地区菜粕现货 价格2650元/吨,较前日变动+30元/吨,现货基差RM01+181,较前日变动+0。 近期市场资讯,外媒11月26日消息:作物专家迈克尔·科尔多涅博士表示,阿根廷2025/26年度大豆产量预计为4900 万吨,高于美国农业部最新预测的4850万吨。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松,大豆持续到港,油厂开机率虽有所上升,但库存消耗较为缓慢,依旧维持在百万吨 左右,未来预计仍将维持宽松预期。下游饲料企业仍以滚动补库为主。USD ...
甲醇日报:港口库存下降幅度尚可-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:21
甲醇日报 | 2025-11-28 港口库存下降幅度尚可 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面:Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨(+0),内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润585元/吨(+0);内地甲醇价格方面,内 蒙北线1990元/吨(+0),内蒙北线基差476元/吨(-20),内蒙南线1975元/吨(+0);山东临沂2215元/吨(+15),鲁 南基差301元/吨(-5);河南2095元/吨(+20),河南基差181元/吨(+0);河北2130元/吨(+0),河北基差276元/吨 (-20)。隆众内地工厂库存373712吨(+15012),西北工厂库存209000吨(+20500);隆众内地工厂待发订单230710 吨(-15610),西北工厂待发订单113500吨(-11900)。 跨品种:无 风险 伊朗装置冬检停车持续时长,MTO检修兑现进度 港口方面:太仓甲醇2105元/吨(+17),太仓基差-9元/吨(-3),CFR中国243美元/吨(+5),华东进口价差-29元/ 吨(-14),常州甲醇2305元/吨;广东甲醇2070元/吨(+20),广东基差-44元/吨(+0)。隆众港口总库存1363500吨 (-1 ...
国债期货日报:PMI发布在即,国债期货涨跌分化-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:21
Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market and bond fund fee regulations, along with differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and increased global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is uncertain. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a环比 of 0.20% and同比 of 0.20%; China's PPI (monthly) has a环比 of 0.10% and同比 of - 2.10% [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of + 0.15%; M2同比 is 8.20%, down 0.20% with a环比 change rate of - 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% with a环比 change rate of - 1.61% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.55, down 0.03 with a环比 change rate of - 0.03%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0739, down 0.004 with a环比 change rate of - 0.05%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, down 0.03 with a环比 change rate of - 1.93%; DR007 is 1.45, down 0.03 with a环比 change rate of - 1.90%; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 with a环比 change rate of - 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, up 0.00 with a环比 change rate of + 0.21%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, up 0.00 with a环比 change rate of + 0.21% [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On November 27, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.39 yuan, 105.77 yuan, 107.90 yuan, and 114.42 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.01%, - 0.01%, - 0.06%, and - 0.01% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.034 yuan, 0.037 yuan, - 0.046 yuan, and - 0.787 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation (2025 Jan - Oct)**: General public budget revenue has a year - on - year growth of 0.8%, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure has a year - on - year increase of only 2%, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, government bond issuance was still strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 27, 2025, the central bank conducted a 356.4 billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.314%, 1.425%, 1.508%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview - **Inter - period Spreads and Cross - variety Spreads**: The report presents various inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc [27][37][38]. 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: Implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract are presented, along with the IRR of the TS main contract and its relationship with the funding rate [36][39]. - **Basis and Net Basis Trends**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract are shown [47]. 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: Implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract are presented, along with the IRR of the TF main contract and its relationship with the funding rate [49]. - **Basis and Net Basis Trends**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract are shown [53]. 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: Implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract are presented, along with the IRR of the T main contract and its relationship with the funding rate [56]. - **Basis and Net Basis Trends**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract are shown [57]. 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: Implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract are presented, along with the IRR of the TL main contract and its relationship with the funding rate [63]. - **Basis and Net Basis Trends**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract are shown [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of repo rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, a neutral stance is taken on 2603 [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].
氯碱日报:PVC开工小幅提升,社会库存累库-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:21
PVC开工小幅提升,社会库存累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-28 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价4517元/吨(+28);华东基差-57元/吨(-18);华南基差-27元/吨(-28)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4460元/吨(+10);华南电石法报价4490元/吨(+0)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格800元/吨(+0);电石价格2830元/吨(+25);电石利润-100元/吨(+25);PVC电石法生产 毛利-848元/吨(-28);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-516元/吨(-25);PVC出口利润-3.4美元/吨(-8.8)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存31.5万吨(-0.7);PVC社会库存52.8万吨(+0.1);PVC电石法开工率82.21%(+2.06%); PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%(-0.19%);PVC开工率78.85%(+1.37%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量67.6万吨(-2.3)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2238元/吨(+9);山东32%液碱基差106元/吨(-40)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价750元/吨(-10);山东 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:库存继续降低,关注江西矿山复产进度-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:16
Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,600 yuan/ton and closed at 95,820 yuan/ton, with a -1.68% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 741,463 lots, and the open interest was 507,882 lots, compared to 478,054 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is -3,980 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,781 lots, a change of -269 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 90,600 - 96,000 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,200 - 92,500 yuan/ton, a change of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,195 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are taking a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions [1]. - Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, and the current focus is on the coefficient. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with lithium spodumene and salt lake being the main supply sources. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [1]. - In terms of demand, in the power market, both commercial and passenger new energy vehicles are growing rapidly; in the energy storage market, supply and demand are both booming, and supply remains tight [1]. - The Natural Resources Ministry has issued a notice on the change registration (including renewal) and license application for the non - oil and gas mining rights of the Zhenkouli in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province - Jianxiawo Lithium Mine in Fengxin County. It is expected that the subsequent resumption of production will accelerate, but the actual resumption progress still needs to be continuously monitored [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. The production from lithium spodumene and mica increased slightly, while the production from salt lakes decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to a total of 115,968 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in other links increased. The consumer side has shown good performance recently [2]. Strategy - Inventory is continuously being depleted, and consumption has certain support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the demand from the power battery end will decrease, while the energy storage end will remain at a high level. Attention should be paid to the extent of the weakening in the power sector [3]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, options, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [3].
尿素日报:复合肥开工率继续提升-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait and see - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, and the spot price has been raised. The restart of shutdown plants in Shanxi and Hebei and the increase in the operating rate of large enterprises in Hubei have led to an overall increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off-season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium- and long-term supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose, and the gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Driven by reserve demand and the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with inventory reduction at factories and a slight increase in port inventory. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia, and the reserve demand in the Northeast has increased, leading to inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Continued attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. The urea import tender of India's IPL closed on November 20, with the lowest CFR prices of $418.40/ton at the East Coast and $419.50/ton at the West Coast. A total of 24 suppliers' quantities were received, and the lowest price was higher than the previous one. Continuous attention should be paid to the sentiment and rhythm of domestic spot procurement. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,668 yuan/ton (+14). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was quoted at 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price in Shandong was 1,650 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was -18 yuan/ton (+6), the basis in Henan was -18 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in Jiangsu was -28 yuan/ton (+6). [1] Urea Production - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of November 27, 2025, the production profit of urea was 120 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,014 yuan/ton (+10). [1] Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06% (+2.45%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47). [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1]
流动性日报-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on November 27, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity The report shows the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector through multiple figures [1][2][9][13]. II. Stock Index Plate On November 27, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 592.041 billion yuan, a 5.20% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1298.655 billion yuan, a 1.83% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 45.10%. Multiple figures display the changes and trends of each variety in the stock index plate [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 417.381 billion yuan, a 21.73% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 740.792 billion yuan, an 8.76% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 56.06%. Figures show the changes and trends of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1]. IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) The basic metal plate had a trading volume of 449.653 billion yuan, a 4.43% decrease; the holding amount was 599.669 billion yuan, a 1.63% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 81.95%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 750.892 billion yuan, a 6.34% decrease; the holding amount was 457.010 billion yuan, a 2.52% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 242.97%. Figures show the changes and trends of each variety in the metal plate [1]. V. Energy Chemical Plate The trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 398.558 billion yuan, a 12.18% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 454.414 billion yuan, a 0.09% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 84.09%. Figures show the changes and trends of major varieties in the energy chemical plate [1]. VI. Agricultural Product Plate The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 317.198 billion yuan, a 7.41% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 606.696 billion yuan, a 0.28% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 52.56%. Figures show the changes and trends of major varieties in the agricultural product plate [1]. VII. Black Building Material Plate The trading volume of the black building material plate was 206.292 billion yuan, a 14.57% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 357.495 billion yuan, a 1.17% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 59.45%. Figures show the changes and trends of each variety in the black building material plate [2].
油料日报:豆一稳势运行关注终端备货,花生产区强弱分化-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Report Core Views - Yesterday, the main soybean futures contract showed a slight increase. The new - season soybean market in the Northeast region is stable. Farmers' limited remaining grain and strong reluctance to sell support prices. However, the trading activity in the trade link is low, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable [1][2] - Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract ended higher. The peanut market has regional strength - weakness differentiation. The Northeast region has high prices due to normal listing and good quality, while the Henan region faces price pressure from oil mills. High prices suppress consumption, and the supply in the Northeast has increased [4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures - The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract yesterday was 4106.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day [1] Spot - The spot basis of edible soybeans was A01 - 6, down 12 (-32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in major markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures - The closing price of the peanuts 2601 contract yesterday was 8186.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan/ton (+0.12%) from the previous day [3] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts was 8210.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan/ton (-0.36%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK01 - 1186.00, up 10.00 (+0.85%) month - on - month. The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.12 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The contract purchase price of oil - mill peanut kernels decreased steadily, and the arrival volume was average [3]