Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2507 opened at 117,440 yuan/ton and closed at 117,450 yuan/ton, a change of -0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,087 lots, and the open interest was 52,007 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell slightly at the night - session opening and then oscillated sideways. During the day - session, it rebounded slightly but was blocked and then oscillated downwards, with a small rebound in the afternoon, closing with a doji. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day. The spot market saw a weak oscillation of nickel prices, and refined nickel traders raised the spot premium, but downstream acceptance was limited, resulting in a light overall spot trading volume. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 3,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,581 (103.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 203,928 (-216) tons [2]. Strategy - The tight supply problem of Indonesian nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cut of smelters, and the cost support has weakened. The oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the idea of selling hedging on rallies is still maintained in the long - term. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 24, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,475 yuan/ton and closed at 12,440 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,087 lots, and the open interest was 185,907 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel fell slightly at the night - session opening and then oscillated sideways. During the day - session, it fell to a new low and then rebounded slightly. In the afternoon, it rebounded sharply due to the news of Tsingshan's production cut, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest changed little. The nickel - iron transaction reached a new low of 910 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold) for over ten thousand tons, with a delivery period in July. The spot market saw a bottom - rebound of stainless steel prices. In the morning, steel mills lowered their price limits, and traders lowered their spot prices. In the afternoon, the news of steel mills' production cuts drove the price rebound, and merchants' quotes remained stable, with an active inquiry volume and a slightly improved market trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,575 yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 280 to 530 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 915.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Although steel mills have cut production and raw material prices have fallen, with overall weak demand and inventory accumulation, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate and decline in the near term, and the idea of selling hedging on rallies is still maintained in the long - term. For single - side trading, it is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

中东问题对铝价形成一定扰动 重要数据 铝现货方面：MM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20540元/吨，较上一交易日下跌110元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至140元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20360元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌10元/吨至-30元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20420元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至35元 /吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 铝期货方面：2025-06-24日沪铝主力合约开于20415元/吨，收于20315元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌105元/ 吨，跌幅-0.51%，最高价达20450元/吨，最低价达到20255元/吨。全天交易日成交136633手，较上一交易日减 少44423手，全天交易日持仓250085手，较上一交易日减少3512手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-24，LME铝库存339900 吨，较前一交易日减少1075吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-24 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3120元/吨，山东价格录得 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-25 市场流动性概况 2025-06-24，股指板块成交5446.28亿元，较上一交易日变动+21.41%；持仓金额9886.31亿元，较上一交易日变动 +4.59%；成交持仓比为55.37%。 国债板块成交2687.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.28%；持仓金额8883.85亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.84%；成交持 仓比为30.82%。 基本金属板块成交2341.50亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.24%；持仓金额3872.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.50%； 成交持仓比为89.40%。 贵金属板块成交4964.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+39.13%；持仓金额4394.91亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.78%；成 交持仓比为100.64%。 能源化工板块成交9299.76亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.67%；持仓金额4032.77亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.63%； 成交持仓比为155.41%。 农产品板块成交3211.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.65%；持仓金额5637.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.72%；成交 持仓比为49.13%。 黑色建材板块成交2185 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-25 原油带动EB成本型下挫 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润463元/吨（+297元/吨），PS生产利润-337元/吨（+147元/吨），ABS生产利润356元/吨 （+263元/吨）。EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%），下游开 工季节性低位。 市场分析 伊朗以色列地缘冲突放缓，原油价格快速回落，拖累纯苯苯乙烯成本型下挫。纯苯方面，国产开工率已上升至高 位，下游CPL及苯胺开工仍偏低，拖累纯苯需求，港口方面，后续韩国发往中国压力仍大，纯苯港口库存本周初再 度快速上升，压制纯苯加工费。苯乙烯方面，港口库存逐步进入回升周期，且国内苯乙烯开工率进一步上升至近3 年高位，工厂库存亦是累库周期。下游方面，PS及ABS库存压力仍存，开工表现不佳。但基差仍偏高，盘面贴水 现货较深。 策略 中性 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.10万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费149美元/吨（+2美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费131美元/吨（+2美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差58.8美 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-25 宏观氛围影响，原料波动加大 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13665元/吨，较前一日变动-285元/吨。NR主力合约11790元/吨，较前一日变动-220 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13650元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13600元/吨， 较前一日变动-220元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1680美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1620美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11350元/吨，较前一日变动-250元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解，进入下旬，半钢胎企业整体出货表现未有改善，国内市场进货压力较大，出口市场尚存支撑，多企 业延续控产，缓解库存增加压力。全钢胎企业表现稍显平稳，听闻，个别工厂次月有回收之前促销政策计划，短 期内或对市场拿货形成一定刺激，短期内关注其他企业价格政策动向。 据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10199.3万条，同比下降1 ...

策略 受消息面影响，碳酸锂盘面反弹 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 市场分析 2025年6月24日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于58940元/吨，收于60700元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨3.06%。当 日成交量为681747手，持仓量为343564手，较前一交易日减少13390手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳800 元/吨。所有合约总持仓631536手，较前一交易日减少25081手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加503296手，成 交量860946，整体投机度为1.36。当日碳酸锂仓单22375手，较上个交易日减少4404手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月24日电池级碳酸锂报价5.93-6.05万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.78-5.88万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。当前碳 酸锂市场仍延续供大于求的基本格局，供需矛盾依然突出。从供应端看，市场可流通货源充足，库存压力尚未得 到有效缓解；需求侧则未有明显增量预期，下游正极材料企业维持谨慎采购策略，仅以刚需采购为主。今日市场 流传多则 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-25 供应增量而需求表现较弱，油料价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4227.00元/吨，较前日变化-23.00元/吨，幅度-0.54%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-47，较前日变化+23，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低1.3%，主要受到美国中西 部地区天气条件持续改善的影响。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌9.25美分到14美分不等，其中7月期约下跌9.25美分， 报收1058.75美分/蒲;8月期约下跌9.50美分，报收1062美分/蒲;11月期约下跌14美分，报收1046.75美分/蒲。6月24日， 黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一 等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨 日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-25 供需延续宽松，尿素震荡偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-24，尿素主力收盘1698元/吨（-13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：52 元/吨（+13）；河南基差：62元/吨（+13）；江苏基差：72元/吨（+13）；尿素生产利润220元/吨（+0），出口利润705 元/吨（+57）。 供应端：截至2025-06-24，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为113.60 万吨（-4.11），港口样本 库存量为29.50 万吨（+5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-24，复合肥产能利用率31.82%（-1.99%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%（+0.55%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.58）。 伊朗以色列地缘冲突有缓和迹象，尿素盘面重回基本面交易，供需延续宽松。尿素开工高位运行，装置检修计划 偏少，产量预计走高，供应端压力较大。尿素下游农业需求追肥补货需求释放，工厂预售订单 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Zinc prices face upward pressure again. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the lack of fundamental drivers for price increases. If social inventories continue to rise, it will exert significant downward pressure on zinc prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 130 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 250 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 180 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 100 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 24, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,875 yuan/ton and closed at 21,920 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 185,998 lots, an increase of 88,110 lots, and the position was 121,470 lots, an increase of 53,580 lots. The highest price reached 22,030 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 24, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Transportation in South China may be affected, but the spot market is not strong due to low inventory, and the spot premium continues to decline. Zinc alloy开工率 has dropped significantly, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur. TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. There are still smelting profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains [4] Strategy - Consumption shows a marginal decline, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and zinc price increases lack fundamental drivers. If social inventories continue to increase, it will form significant downward pressure [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated and declined yesterday. Geopolitical factors caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, and the improved weather in US production areas put downward pressure on the overall oils and fats market [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan or 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 176.00 yuan or 2.17%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,572.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 149.00 yuan or 1.53% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or 1.62%, with a spot basis of P09 + 154.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan/ton or 1.45%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 210.00, an increase of 56.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.52%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 178.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: US President Trump called on Israel to stop bombing Iran, stating that it "seriously violated" the fragile cease - fire agreement between the two countries announced a few hours ago. China's central bank and five other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which mentioned implementing monetary policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. In the short term, the domestic soybean crushing volume remains at a peak level, with soybean oil production exceeding downstream提货量, and inventory continuing to rise. As of the end of the 25th week of 2025, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 986,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons or 3.06% compared to the previous week. Among them, the coastal inventory was 892,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 2.59% compared to the previous week [2] - **Import Prices**: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 613 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) was 603 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,118 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,116 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of imported rapeseed oil from Canada (July shipment) was 1,050 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) was 461 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (July shipment) was 456 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) was 462 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (July shipment) was 226 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; US West Coast (July shipment) was 199 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 200 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is neutral [4]