Hua Tai Qi Huo
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市场波动加剧,股指震荡调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:38
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's profit - making effect attracts various investors to accelerate their layout. Foreign institutional investors' recognition of the allocation value of Chinese assets has increased, leading to a sharp rise in trading volume in the two markets and intensified market volatility. Although short - term technical indicators show overbought signs, abundant liquidity provides support, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. Industry sectors are in a healthy rotation, and the comparative advantage of Chinese assets in global risk assets is prominent. Recently, the AI, military, and small metals sectors are expected to strengthen again [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy Updates**: The five - department joint notice from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and others has added three new withdrawal conditions for personal pensions starting from September 1st, including suffering from serious diseases, receiving unemployment insurance benefits, and receiving urban and rural minimum living security benefits. Specific operation methods have also been clarified, allowing participants to withdraw personal pensions monthly, in installments, or in a lump sum. In July, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 - year - old labor force in urban areas was 17.8%, 6.9% for the 25 - 29 - year - old labor force, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 - year - old labor force (excluding students) [1] - **Overseas Policy Updates**: The US Department of Commerce has included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% applicable tax rate. The new list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and their components, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pump equipment. The Trump administration has repeatedly emphasized expanding the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs to protect domestic manufacturing and curb import dependence [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices closed lower with fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.02% to 3727.29 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.17%. In terms of industries, sector indices showed mixed performance, with the communication, food and beverage, and commercial retail sectors leading the gains, while the non - bank finance, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on that day remained at 2.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high during the session, but the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.46% to 44922.27 points due to the drag of technology stocks [2] - **Futures Market Performance**: In the futures market, the basis of the near - month IC contract rebounded. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [2] Strategy - The market's profit - making effect attracts investors, and foreign institutions recognize the value of Chinese assets. Despite short - term overbought signs, liquidity support maintains the upward trend. Industry sectors rotate healthily, and sectors such as AI, military, and small metals are expected to strengthen [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][13] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on August 19, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.17%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.07% [15] - **Other Indicators**: Charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances are also provided [16] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract decreased by 40988 to 109269, and the open interest decreased by 15341 to 258257 [19] - **Basis**: The basis of each contract shows different changes. For example, the basis of the IF contract's near - month contract decreased by 5.56 to - 7.17, while the basis of the IC contract's near - month contract increased by 4.86 to - 55.31 [41] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of different contracts also have corresponding changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month IF contracts decreased by 2.40 to - 4.80 [47]
关注中国8月LPR报价和欧元区7月调和CPI终值
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market situation in July 2025, including economic data, tariff policies, and geopolitical events. It also provides investment strategies for commodities and stock index futures, suggesting to allocate more industrial products on dips. [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI declined to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, supported by the low base last year and the "rush to export" effect. US non - farm payrolls in July were below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. [3] - The "reciprocal tariff" situation is complex. The US has adjusted tariff policies, and some tariffs have been suspended or extended. The impact on commodities is significant, with different sectors affected differently. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side changes, while energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. [4] - On August 19, A - share indices fluctuated, with the trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeding 2 trillion yuan for five consecutive days. AI hardware stocks were strong, and consumer stocks such as liquor rebounded. Treasury bonds rebounded, and commodities declined. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips. [5] To - do News - On August 18, Premier Li Qiang emphasized at the State Council's Ninth Plenary Meeting to enhance the effectiveness of macro - policies, boost domestic consumption, and expand effective investment. [6] - The US, Russia, and Ukraine are promoting peace talks. Trump said that if all goes well, there will be a tri - lateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and Putin supports direct negotiations between the two sides. [4][6] - The Japanese Ministry of Defense is coordinating to include a defense budget of about 8.8 trillion yen, the largest in history. [4][6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry, aiming to standardize the competition order. [4][6]
农产品日报:苹果库内交易一般,红枣等外价格上涨-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:23
农产品日报 | 2025-08-20 苹果库内交易一般,红枣等外价格上涨 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘苹果2510合约8150元/吨,较前一日变动-80元/吨,幅度-0.97%。现货方面,山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP10-550,较前一日变动+80;陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP10+850,较前一日变动+80。 近期市场资讯,早熟苹果上量继续增加,陕北早熟纸袋嘎啦陆续上市交易,早熟嘎啦整体质量分化明显,果个不 均、上色不佳,价格随之亦显两极分化。山东产区鲁丽、金都红、奶油华硕有序交易,整体量不大,客商采购积 极性尚可。苹果库存富士行情维持稳淡,山东产区客商拿货积极性一般,成交氛围不旺,客商多压价收购,85#果 压价明显。销区市场需求不佳,应季水果冲击仍较明显。陕西渭南合阳纸袋嘎啦70#起步一般货参考价3.0-3.2元/ 斤附近,上色不好的货源价格2.2-2.5元/斤,实际以质论价。山东库存果成交氛围不旺,客商多压价收购,低价片 红货源走货为主,大果需求较差。山 ...
油料日报:天气炒作趋缓叠加需求疲弱,豆一花生承压-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Weather speculation has eased and demand is weak, putting pressure on soybeans and peanuts. The domestic soybean market has a weak fundamental situation, with ongoing soybean auctions, favorable weather for growth, and weak demand. The relationship between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening. For peanuts, the market is in a transition phase, with weak downstream demand. As new peanuts are increasingly available, prices may face pressure [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 4,046.00 yuan/ton, a change of +2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.05%. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 214, a change of -42 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14%. In the Northeast market, soybean prices were stable yesterday, and state reserve auctions had light trading [1] - Yesterday, soybeans futures fluctuated. Last week, influenced by surrounding varieties, the fluctuation range increased. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on rapeseed also provided some support. However, due to weak fundamentals, the government is conducting soybean auctions, the weather is favorable for soybean growth, and demand is weak. The relationship between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening, and their linkage is obvious. Short - term attention should be paid to weather changes and policy adjustments [2] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2510 contract yesterday was 7,828.00 yuan/ton, a change of +18.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.23%. Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8,260.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 272.00, a change of -118.00 from the previous day, a decrease of -30.26%. The average price of domestic peanut kernels was 4.13 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin. Some producing areas are in the new - old peanut transition phase, with the price of old peanuts weakening and new peanuts being relatively firm [3] - Yesterday, peanut futures had a narrow - range fluctuation. The market is in a transition phase where new peanuts are gradually increasing in supply and old peanuts are winding down. Demand is weak, and traders are mainly consuming existing inventories. As the area of new peanut listings expands, peanut prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to production and weather conditions [4]
美国ProFarmer公司作物巡查,大豆丰产预期不变
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. ProFarmer company's crop inspection shows that the expectation of a bountiful soybean harvest remains unchanged, and the yield per unit is likely to reach a record high. However, due to a significant reduction in the planted area, the overall soybean production is still uncertain [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that Malaysian palm oil prices will remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,640 yuan/ton, a change of +56 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,526 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.24% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,660 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.58%, with a spot basis of P01 + 20 yuan, a change of +94 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,680 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 154 yuan, a change of +40 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 130 yuan, a change of - 4 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop Yield Forecasts - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in Ohio to be 185.69 bushels/acre, compared to 183.29 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in South Dakota to be 174.18 bushels/acre, compared to 156.51 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in Ohio in 2025 to be 1,287.28, compared to 1,229.93 in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota in 2025 to be 1,188.45, compared to 1,025.89 in 2024 [2] Brazilian "Soybean Moratorium Plan" - Brazil's competition management agency CADE recommends a full investigation of the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". The general manager of CADE decides to implement "preventive measures" and impose fines on the working group coordinating the plan and the soybean export companies that signed the document [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) is concerned about CADE's decision, will take administrative measures to appeal, and will maintain a "cooperative spirit" with the competition regulator [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:北方受运输影响现货表现尚可-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:22
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View - The absolute price of zinc continues to decline, and the spot market is difficult to improve. Although the spot discount remains stable, the trading is still sluggish. The transportation in the Tianjin market is affected by the parade and the SCO meeting, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is relatively good. The import TC is still rising, the smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains. The current pressure on the supply side and the expected future pressure remain unchanged. The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face greater pressure [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$8.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -100 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,170 yuan/ton, with a premium of -85 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On August 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,320 yuan/ton, closed at 22,205 yuan/ton, -190 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,478 lots, and the open interest was 105,576 lots. The highest price was 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,180 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 135,400 tons, a change of 6,300 tons compared with the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons, a change of -3,650 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Cost**: Import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventory with an upward trend [4] - **Smelting**: The industry smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains, with unchanged supply - side pressure [4] - **Consumption**: The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. Zinc price may be relatively weak when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [5] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]
现货价格坚挺,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the粕类market, the strategy is neutral [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] Core Views - The domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The result of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed in the policy end has a significant impact on the price of meal products. The Sino - US trade policy is still uncertain. The Brazilian premium remains strong, and the cost side is still supported [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply side shows that the channel inventory in Northeast and North China is relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. The demand side indicates that the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the inventory continues to decline. Feed enterprises mainly conduct sporadic replenishment. The price has insufficient upward momentum, and the market focuses on the listing of new grains [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data -粕类 - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3161 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.54%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - US market: As of the week of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 95%, and the pod - setting rate was 82%. As of the week of August 14, the US soybean export inspection volume was 47.4 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4886.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, reaching 95.8% of the annual export target [2] Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2170 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2563 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Forecast: ASAP Agri expects Ukraine's 2025 corn production to reach 3090 tons, an increase of 330 tons from the previous forecast. As of the week of August 14, the US wheat export inspection volume was 39.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. The 2025/26 US wheat export inspection volume was 481.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [4] Market Analysis -粕类 - The domestic soybean supply is still abundant, and the fundamentals have no major changes. The result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on the policy end has a significant impact on the price of meal products. The Sino - US trade policy is uncertain, and the Brazilian premium remains strong, providing cost support [3] Market Analysis - Corn - On the supply side, the channel inventory in Northeast and North China is relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. On the demand side, the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the inventory continues to decline. Feed enterprises mainly conduct sporadic replenishment. The price has insufficient upward momentum, and the market focuses on the listing of new grains [5]
新能源及有色金属日报:现货价格继续上涨,需关注供应端扰动-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:20
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to tighten, and downstream procurement demand has increased during the peak demand season, so the spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to rise, and the price center will move up in the short term [1] - Affected by the disturbance of the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the short - term market fluctuates greatly and is easily affected by capital sentiment and news [3] Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 89,500 yuan/ton and closed at 87,540 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 734,929 lots, and the open interest was 414,097 lots, compared with 421,106 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 2,220 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 23,615 lots, a change of 60 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,300 - 87,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 82,700 - 84,100 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,040 US dollars/ton, a change of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - Due to the decline in futures prices, downstream purchasing and price - setting behaviors increased significantly, pushing up the spot price of lithium carbonate [1] Company News - Jiangte Motor's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., Ltd., which had previously stopped production for equipment maintenance, will resume production soon [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term investors can buy on dips for hedging - No strategies provided for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]
聚烯烃日报:需求端缓慢跟进,市场支撑偏弱-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:19
Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The polyolefin market has weak support due to slow demand follow - up. Macro factors offer no positive boost, causing the polyolefin futures to decline slightly. Supply pressure persists as previously shut - down plants restart. Although the postponed commissioning of the 90 - million - ton/year PP plant at Daxie Petrochemical eases short - term supply pressure, long - term new capacity pressure is significant. Cost support is weak as international oil prices are weak and propane prices are stable. The demand side is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with slow improvement in terminal operations, providing limited market support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton (- 27), and the PP main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton (- 32). LL North China spot was 7220 yuan/ton (- 30), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+ 0), and PP East China spot was 7000 yuan/ton (+ 0). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (- 3), LL East China basis was - 7 yuan/ton (+ 27), and PP East China basis was - 16 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.2% (+ 0.1%), and PP operating rate was 77.9% (+ 0.6%). PE oil - based production profit was 396.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 143.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), and PDH - based PP production profit was 171.6 yuan/ton (- 18.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 111.4 yuan/ton (+ 3.6), PP import profit was - 497.8 yuan/ton (- 36.4), and PP export profit was 34.6 US dollars/ton (+ 4.5) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.8% (+ 0.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.1% (- 0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.4% (+ 0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.1% (+ 0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data in the given text, but it is mentioned that upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising and inventory pressure is high [2]
农产品日报:郑棉承压回落,白糖延续震荡-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. In China, short - term supply shortage supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market has complex changes in exports. The domestic sugar market faces pressure from imported sugar, but potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [4][6][7] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Product Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 14,100 yuan/ton yesterday, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the national average was 15,243 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 - September 30 [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA cut global cotton production and ending stocks, but the market doubts the tight pattern, and ICE cotton is in a shock range. Domestic: Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. Short - term supply shortage supports prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. Medium - term, new cotton listing will bring new pressure [2] Strategy - Neutral. Low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industrial factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,661 yuan/ton yesterday, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. In July 2025, Brazilian sugar exports decreased, while ethanol exports increased [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production and crushing data are mixed, and some institutions are lowering Brazilian sugar production estimates. Domestic: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and the pressure of imported sugar is increasing [6] Strategy - Neutral. Pressured by processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar will oscillate. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,178 yuan/ton yesterday, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton. The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices following the decline of the futures [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season. Terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [10]