Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents an overview of the mid - and upstream industries, including production and service sectors, and details the price and operation status of various industries at different levels. It also mentions relevant policies and responses to international trade issues [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission released an action plan to promote the high - quality development of the intelligent terminal industry from 2026 - 2027, aiming to increase the scale of intelligent computing power terminals. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries and infrastructure [1]. - **Service Industry**: In response to the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that the US measures are unfair and discriminatory, and urged the US to correct its mistakes and resolve issues through dialogue [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices in the non - ferrous metal industry have rebounded, while egg prices in the agricultural industry have dropped significantly [2]. - **Midstream**: The PX industry in the chemical sector has a high operating rate; power plant coal consumption in the energy sector has decreased; and the asphalt industry in the infrastructure sector has reached a three - year high in operating rate [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities in the real estate market have slightly increased [3]. 3.3 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 14, the prices of eggs decreased by 19.12% year - on - year, while the prices of palm oil increased by 2.38% [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 9, the prices of copper increased by 7.20% year - on - year, and the prices of zinc increased by 1.45% [37]. - **Energy**: On October 14, the prices of WTI crude oil decreased by 6.24% year - on - year, and the prices of Brent crude oil decreased by 5.62% [37]. - **Real Estate**: On October 14, the building materials comprehensive index decreased by 0.94%, and the concrete price index decreased by 0.35% [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Suspended [4] Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee for lead concentrates remains low despite the continuous increase in by - product prices, and there are no significant contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. It is predicted that the lead price will show a volatile pattern, roughly ranging from 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 45.35 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On October 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,050 yuan/ton and closed at 17,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,201 lots, a decrease of 23,393 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 43,597 lots, a decrease of 391 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,155 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,035 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,010 yuan/ton and closed at 17,015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of October 14, the LME lead inventory was 246,550 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold [9] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [9] Core View of the Report The copper price strengthened during the National Day due to the resumption of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and frequent mine - end disturbances. However, the processing fee of - 40 dollars/ton already reflects the tightening of mine - end resources, so the short - term price increase caused by mine - end disturbances may not be sustainable. When the Sino - US trade dispute seemed to intensify last Friday, the copper price declined. But low processing fees and the Fed's interest - rate cut limit the downside of the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 85,800 yuan/ton and closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 84,180 yuan/ton and closed at 84,890 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 20 to a premium of 120 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 50 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. The spot price was 85,780 - 86,200 yuan/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was weak. It is expected that trading will be light on the last trading day of the 2510 contract, but the premium may rise after the contract change [2]. Important Information Summary - Fed Chairman Powell said employment and inflation prospects have changed little since September, and the Fed will adjust monetary policy based on economic prospects and risk balance. He also mentioned that the balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from July's forecast, and 3.1% in 2026. The US economic growth forecast for this year and next was slightly raised by 0.1 percentage points, while China's growth rate for this year was maintained at 4.8% [3]. Supply - Side Information Mine End - Freeport Indonesia will suspend its Manyar smelter due to copper concentrate supply shortages after a mudslide at the Grasberg mine. The Grasberg mine may not return to pre - accident operation levels until at least 2027. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper equivalent production increased 10% year - on - year to 204,000 tons, and copper production is expected to reach the upper end of the 2025 target [4]. Smelting and Import - Around 600,000 tons of copper flowed into the US before the tariff increase this year, with about 400,000 tons privately stored, which means the US doesn't need to import copper in the short term. Macquarie predicts the average LME copper price in 2026 will be 9,525 dollars/ton [5]. Consumption Information - In September, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, up 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year. From January to September, production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, up 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 138,800 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons to 36,295 tons. On October 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.72 million tons, up 0.057 million tons from the previous week [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - The nickel market has an oversupply situation, with high inventories. The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For trading strategies, a range - based operation is recommended for single - side trading, while no specific strategies are proposed for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1][3]. - The stainless steel market is facing inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand. The stainless steel price is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and no strategies are given for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,084 (- 38,918) lots, and the open interest was 73,107 (- 1,593) lots. The oversupply pattern persists, and concerns about the escalation of China - US tariff friction have intensified. The LME inventory continues to increase, suppressing the nickel price. The trading volume and open interest both decreased, indicating reduced market trading activity and capital participation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and the price remains stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF 44, with no transactions concluded. In the Philippines, the bidding result of the 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in Zambales has not been released. The downstream nickel - iron price has declined, squeezing the profit of iron plants, leading to cautious procurement of nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories have started stockpiling raw materials for winter. The supply in the Indonesian market remains loose, and the October (second phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to increase by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai market sales price of Jinchuan Group is 123,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The decline in refined nickel prices has increased downstream procurement enthusiasm, and the intraday trading volume is fair. The premiums of various brands are mainly stable. The Jinchuan nickel premium remains unchanged at 2,400 yuan/ton, the imported nickel premium increases by 25 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the nickel bean premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,027 (- 245) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 243,258 (+ 1,164) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Mainly use range - based operations [3]. - **Cross - period**: None [3]. - **Cross - variety**: None [3]. - **Spot - futures**: None [3]. - **Options**: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,565 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,756 (- 59,233) lots, and the open interest was 190,251 (- 4,171) lots. It shows a similar trend to Shanghai nickel, continuing the low - level oscillation pattern and reaching a low of 12,050 yuan/ton, close to the three - month low [3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism has intensified, and spot prices have decreased, but trading remains sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (- 150) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,000 (- 100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium ranges from 455 to 755 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Neutral [5]. - **Cross - period**: None [5]. - **Cross - variety**: None [5]. - **Spot - futures**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bearish, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core View - The asphalt market has few positive factors and the market is running weakly. The asphalt futures and spot prices are showing a downward trend. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with insufficient demand growth momentum and local pressure emerging. The market may fluctuate repeatedly due to the impact of crude oil trends and increased macro - level disturbances, so caution is recommended [1] Market Analysis - On October 14, the closing price of the main BU2511 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.6% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 99,108 lots, a decrease of 4,179 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 100,725 lots, a decrease of 41,232 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,506 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,330 - 3,670 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,380 - 3,550 yuan/ton in the South China, and 3,450 - 3,550 yuan/ton in the East China [1] - The asphalt market has been on a continuous downward trend recently. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northwest, Northeast, and South China remained relatively stable yesterday, while those in other regions decreased to varying degrees [1] Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the monthly spread of the near - month asphalt futures, the trading volume and open interest of the asphalt futures, the weekly domestic asphalt production, the asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), the domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple strategy: Neutral to bullish [3] - Jujube strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The apple futures price rose slightly yesterday. The supply in the western producing areas increased and the trading was active, with the price of high - quality goods remaining stable and firm. There was a price polarization in the market. The red apple listing was delayed due to weather, and the acquisition and storage time was compressed. The demand after the double festivals was weak. The price of high - quality goods is expected to remain stable and firm, and the price polarization will be obvious [2][3] - Jujube: The jujube futures price fluctuated narrowly yesterday. The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the garden - ordering process is advancing. The supply in the sales areas increased, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The inventory pressure remains, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market has a relatively certain judgment on the production trend. If the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend may continue; otherwise, it will be in a narrow - range shock pattern [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,664 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of semi - commercial late Fuji apples above 70 in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 3.85 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was AP01 + - 964, down 26 from the previous day. - Market information: The supply in the western producing areas increased, and the trading was active. The price of high - quality goods was stable and firm. In Shandong, there were few red apples, and merchants flowed out. The price of late Fuji apples in different regions varied, with a price polarization trend [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose slightly yesterday. The supply in the western producing areas increased and the trading was active, while in Shandong, there were few red apples and merchants flowed out. The new - season late Fuji apples were affected by continuous rainy weather, with the red apple listing delayed. The acquisition and storage time within the year was compressed. The demand after the double festivals did not improve significantly. The price of high - quality goods was stable and firm, and merchants were cautious in acquisition but active in purchasing high - quality goods. The price polarization of the apple supply was obvious this week [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral to bullish. The late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples. The acquisition period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high - quality goods will remain stable and firm, with an obvious price polarization [3] Jujube Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Jujube 2601 contract yesterday was 11,110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was CJ01 - 1610, up 20 from the previous day. - Market information: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the garden - ordering process is advancing. The arrival of goods in the Hebei and Guangdong markets and the trading volume are also reported [4] Market Analysis - The jujube futures price fluctuated narrowly yesterday. The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the garden - ordering process is advancing. The supply in the sales areas increased, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The inventory pressure remains, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market has a relatively certain judgment on the production trend [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. If the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of jujube futures may continue; otherwise, it will be in a narrow - range shock pattern. Attention should be paid to consumption, new - season quality, and production changes [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is cautiously bullish, and the rating for arbitrage is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - LME inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute value remains below 40,000 tons, leading to a rapid increase in overseas premiums. The domestic supply pressure persists, but the opening of the export window has reversed the short - allocation logic. The linkage between domestic and overseas zinc prices will strengthen, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $201.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan per ton, closed at 22,220 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 124,307 lots, and the position was 95,194 lots. The highest price was 22,335 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,210 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 38,600 tons, a change of 1,125 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - LME inventory has a slight rebound, but the absolute value is still low, causing the overseas premium to quickly break through $200 per ton. The domestic smelting profit has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains. The opening of the export window has changed the short - allocation logic, and the linkage between domestic and overseas prices will strengthen. There's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] Strategy - Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US tariff game continues, and EG remains weak. The main EG contract closed at 4,061 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.22%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.67%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. In Saudi Arabia, more than two sets of plants are still shut down or operating at low loads. On the demand side, demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Under the commissioning of new plants, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in the EG balance sheet in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has increased significantly around the National Day [2]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. An inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 is recommended, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 4,061 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.22%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.67%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$61/ton, down $1/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was -431 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data analysis provided, only mentions the chart of "ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons. According to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, up 4.3 tons. From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main ports was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.5 tons, with a possibility of continued inventory accumulation [1]. - Under the commissioning of new plants, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in the EG balance sheet in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has increased significantly around the National Day [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's spot price shows weak stability, with a current weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The inventory increased week - on - week, and the futures market declined on the day, mainly affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The industrial silicon market fluctuates based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the market may have room to rise [1][2]. - Polysilicon's supply - demand fundamentals are average, with significant inventory pressure, less - than - expected production cuts, and resistance in price transmission downstream. The 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation suppresses the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for low - level long - position layout [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak trend. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,715 yuan/ton and closed at 8,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton or 2.18% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 162,674 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 51,197 lots, an increase of 343 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was weakly stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). The prices of some silicon in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions declined slightly, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - The Fuanda project in Angola, invested by Jiangsu Beiyang Group, has a total investment of 20 million US dollars in Phase I, covering an area of 16 hectares, with two submerged arc furnaces built and an annual output of 15,000 tons of industrial silicon. It was fully put into operation in 2025. Phase II plans to invest 100 million US dollars, covering an area of 125 hectares, with the construction of a 220KV substation and 10 submerged arc furnaces, and an expected annual output of 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and various alloy materials. The construction of the first 4 furnaces has started [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). Most manufacturers still have some pre - sold orders, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, with some planning to enter maintenance. The market supply is expected to be in a short - term strong and volatile state [2]. Strategy - Spot price is weakly stable, and the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The inventory increased week - on - week, and the futures market declined on the day, mainly affected by the weak overall commodity sentiment. The industrial silicon market fluctuates based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may have room to rise [2]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and buy on dips for contracts during the dry season [3]. - Cross - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures showed a strong trend, opening at 48,695 yuan/ton and closing at 49,990 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.55% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 81,388 lots (87,665 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 297,703 lots [4][5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.50 - 55.00 yuan/kg (unchanged), and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.19%, the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW, a week - on - week decrease of 6.89% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece (unchanged), N - type 210mm was 1.70 yuan/piece (unchanged), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan/piece) [5]. - According to SMM data, the polysilicon price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market transactions were light during the National Day, with few new transactions, and the market was significantly resistant to high - priced resources. Polysilicon manufacturers had different quotes, and the market was waiting for the polysilicon industry meeting in October. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and is expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged); PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged); TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.32 yuan/W (unchanged); Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.32 yuan/W (unchanged); Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W (unchanged). HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [6]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W (unchanged) [6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure, less - than - expected production cuts, and resistance in price transmission downstream. The 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation suppresses the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted. It is necessary to continuously follow up on the implementation of policies and the downward price transmission of spot prices. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for low - level long - position layout [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and it is expected that the 11 - month contract will fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Spot prices are weakly stable, and attention should be paid to the bidding situation of Indian tenders - Enterprises have recently lowered their quotes, and low - price transactions have improved. The transactions in the mainstream regions have improved, but after some manufacturers slightly raised their quotes, the transactions cooled down. Low - price transactions in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia continued - Some areas are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has decreased. The compound fertilizers required for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance. Due to more autumn rains, the fertilizer demand for winter wheat this year may be postponed to mid - to late October. Recently, the weather in the autumn harvest areas has improved, and the shipment of compound fertilizers is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in spot sentiment - The operating rate of melamine has rebounded, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to long - term - The current inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China will gradually start production. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in Northeast China - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still the export window periods. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to the subsequent dynamics of urea exports [1][2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - Include figures such as Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][17] Urea Production - Include figures such as urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [20][25] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures such as production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][32][35] Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - Include figures such as urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [34][39][42] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Include figures such as compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and days of orders to be delivered [49][50][51] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include figures such as upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [54][57][61]