Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] Core View - The external market remains firm, and the short - term contradictions in the market are limited. The high premium raises the arrival cost, supporting the domestic spot and futures. Recently, the LPG fundamentals have shown a marginal tightening trend, but the sustainability is limited. The downstream chemical demand is suppressed by cost increases, and the supply in the Middle East and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia are expected to increase. In the medium term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures may fluctuate in the short term [1] Market Analysis - On November 25, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4330 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4010 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4420 yuan/ton; East China market, 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton; South China market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 569 dollars/ton and 559 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4437 yuan/ton for propane (down 1 yuan/ton) and 4359 yuan/ton for butane (down 1 yuan/ton). In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 561 dollars/ton and 551 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4374 yuan/ton for propane (down 2 yuan/ton) and 4296 yuan/ton for butane (down 2 yuan/ton) [1] - The external market continues to fluctuate strongly, and the high premium raises the arrival cost, supporting the domestic spot and futures. Recently, the LPG fundamentals have tightened marginally, but the sustainability is limited due to the suppression of downstream chemical demand by cost increases. The supply in the Middle East may increase after the refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern of LPG has not changed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is insufficient. The futures may fluctuate in the short term [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-26 原油端延续弱势，局部现货下跌 市场分析 1、11月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3068元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨36元/吨，涨幅 1.19%；持仓153792手，环比下跌7249手，成交160056手，环比减少66769手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2990—3470元/吨；华南，3050—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 近期原油价格走势偏弱，沥青成本端支撑不足，但在自身绝对价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号已开始出现。现货 方面，昨日西北、山东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，华北地区沥青现货价格小幅反弹，其余地区 沥青现货价格大体企稳。部分主营炼厂下调沥青结算价格，带动区域沥青现货价格下跌。从基本面来看，当前供 需两弱格局延续，虽然终端需求逐步步入淡季，但在炼厂开工率和产量出现明显下滑态势，多家炼厂转产渣油， 沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位，北方出现提货紧张的状况。不过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象，市场情绪 相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已有所缓解， ...

期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8360.00元/吨，环比变化-126元，幅度-1.48%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8144.00 元/吨，环比变化-24.00元，幅度-0.29%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9818.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8370.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.95%，现货基差P01+10.00，环比变化 +46.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y01+206.00， 环比变化+14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10140.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.40%，现货基差 OI01+322.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：11月25日，印尼北苏门答腊省官员表示，该省中塔帕努利地区正受到洪灾影响，从23日开始 的持续强降雨导致多个地点发生洪水和山体滑坡。该官员称，灾害已导致4人死亡。根据北苏门答腊灾害行动中心 收集的数据，分布在7个地区的1902个家庭受到洪灾影响。受灾居民正陆续被疏散到安全地点。印尼气象 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2) Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend. The mid-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually materializing. If the Russia-Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further subside, and lower oil prices will put some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil [2] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with declining crack spreads and monthly spreads. The market supply remains relatively abundant. The supply from the Dangote refinery has not completely stopped, some units of the Azur refinery that were under maintenance due to faults are expected to restart around November 29, and the shipment of Sudanese low-sulfur crude oil is also recovering. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and there is still support at the lower end of the market [2] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner, and the lower support for valuation mainly comes from the flexible demand at the refinery end. In addition, the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.36% during the day session, at 2,491 yuan/ton; the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.31% during the day session, at 3,015 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The oil market is still focused on the prospects of Russia-Ukraine peace talks. After the initial 28 - point plan was revised to 19 points through consultations between the US and Ukraine, the acceptance of the new 19 - point plan by Russia needs to be monitored. Although the start of peace talks has accelerated the pace of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the future prospects remain highly uncertain and continuous attention to relevant progress is required [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 89 cents to settle at $57.95 per barrel, a decline of 1.51%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 89 cents to settle at $62.48 per barrel, a decline of 1.4%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.98%, at 443 yuan per barrel [1]. - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said that due to a drone attack, oil loading at the Black Sea terminal was temporarily suspended [1]. - US President Trump said that after further improvement by both sides, the original 28 - point peace plan drafted by the US has only a few remaining differences, and the Russia - Ukraine situation may ease [1]. - On November 24 local time, the governor of Oregon declared a state of emergency to ensure sufficient fuel supply during the closure of the Olympic Pipeline, which supplies over 90% of the state's fuel, due to a leak. The pipeline is operated by BP and has been closed for a week. BP is looking for the leak source [1]. - Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, said that Western sanctions on Russia would bring Western economies closer to a crisis. Western consumers are already paying high prices for energy, and continued sanctions will bring another economic crisis to Western countries [1]. - The UK, the EU, and the US have strengthened sanctions on Moscow over the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The latest US measures target Rosneft and Lukoil, and buyers must stop trading with these two companies by November 21 [1]. - Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov said on the 25th that there is a possibility of Russia - US contact on the peace plan at some point. Russia remains open to negotiations, and is waiting for the US to share its new plan to resolve the Ukraine issue [1]. Investment Logic - The oil market is focused on the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The 28 - point plan has become 19 points, and the acceptance by Russia is key. The future of the peace talks is uncertain and needs continuous monitoring [2]. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a bearish configuration in the medium term, and shorting the calendar spread is recommended [3]. Risk - Downside risks include the signing of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro - black swan events. Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, US inflation data slightly rebounded, but consumer momentum significantly weakened. More Fed officials called for interest rate cuts, boosting market sentiment and leading to overnight gains in the three major US stock indexes. Domestically, the index is in a stage of oscillating recovery, but considering the recent shrinking trading volume in the market, it is expected to take some time for a phased recovery [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Macro**: The US consumer momentum is weakening. The US PPI in September increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the core PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a resurgence of inflation. US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with four consecutive months of positive growth but a significant slowdown and lower than market expectations. Trump said his team made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the 28 - point peace plan is almost finalized [1]. - **Stock Index**: A - share three major indexes oscillated and rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to close at 3870.02 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. The communication, media, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while only the national defense and military industry and transportation sectors closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly to 1.81 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.43% to 47112.45 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of stock index futures widened. The trading volume and open interest of IC increased simultaneously [2]. 2. Strategy - Overseas, the weakening US consumer momentum and more Fed officials' calls for interest rate cuts warmed market sentiment. Domestically, the index is in an oscillatory recovery stage, but due to the shrinking trading volume, it will take time for a phased recovery [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][10]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on November 25, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77% [14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided, with IC showing an increase in both trading volume and open interest [16][18]. - **Basis**: The basis data of different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are given, and the basis has widened [40]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data of different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) for various combinations are provided, and the changes in spreads are also shown [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and moderately bullish rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel, with a bearish fundamental drive due to increased oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia since Q3. However, market differentiation caused by sanctions persists, and geopolitical and macro - events may impact sentiment [1]. - In the PX market, the PXN has widened recently. With a loose MX supply, PX load can be maintained at a high level. PXN is supported by polyester production but has limited upside due to high PX load and capacity expansion [1]. - For TA, the spot basis and processing fees have increased. Recent concentrated maintenance and improved export demand have led to better supply - demand conditions. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve as the capacity expansion cycle ends [2]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (up 0.8% month - on - month). Domestic sales orders have improved since late October, and inventory has decreased. The short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. - In the PF market, the production profit has increased, and inventory has decreased. The price is consolidating, but it is difficult to raise prices, and the processing fee has slightly compressed [2]. - For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee has decreased slightly. The market is in a demand off - season and a pre - Spring Festival inventory gap, with high social inventory and weak demand, so the processing fee is expected to remain volatile [3]. - In terms of strategies, for the single - side trading, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The upside of the 01 contract may be limited, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no recommendations for cross - variety and cross - period trading [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 43 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [2]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is $263 per ton (up $1.25 per ton month - on - month). The PTA spot processing fee is 201 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 277 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1][2]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - No specific data is provided in the given content. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level, and overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. The concentrated PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand conditions [1][2]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - No specific data is provided in the given content. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (up 0.8% month - on - month), and the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 164 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level [2]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 440 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and factory inventory remains unchanged. The processing fee is expected to remain volatile [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The market demand for oilseeds is weak, and the prices are stable. The trading of soybeans and peanuts is light, with prices under pressure and mainly showing a volatile trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2601 contract was 4108.00 yuan/ton, a change of -42.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of -1.01% [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 8, a change of +42 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The prices of soybeans in Northeast China were stable, but the trading of grain traders was light, and the prices still faced pressure. In the inner - region producing areas, high - quality soybeans commanded high prices, and the purchase prices of grain trading enterprises were firm, but downstream buyers were reluctant to accept high - priced goods, and the purchasing and selling rhythm was slow [1] - Market Information: The loading prices of national standard first - class soybeans with 39% protein in various markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged compared with the previous day [1] Peanut - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 7942.00 yuan/ton, a change of +98.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.25% [2] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The spot basis was PK01 - 942.00, a change of -98.00 from the previous day, an increase of 11.61% [2] - Market Information: The prices of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil remained unchanged. Among related oils, the spot price of national first - class sunflower oil decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price difference with peanut oil increased by 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - class corn oil remained unchanged, and the price difference with peanut oil remained the same. Currently, the inventory of oil mills in the market is not high, but consumption is limited, the market trading is light, and the upward momentum is insufficient, so the prices are mainly volatile [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The quotes of Maersk in the second week of December decreased compared to the previous week, and the estimated value of the December contract settlement price was revised downwards [1]. - The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference, and the settlement time of the February contract has been determined. The settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the price - holding period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may be at par with the December contract valuation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be price increases announced at the end of November and mid - December [4]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the reopening of the Suez Canal. If the Suez Canal reopens, it will increase the effective supply of shipping capacity and further suppress freight rates [5]. - The strategy suggests that the December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Price - As of November 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures was 77,333.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 64,306.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1453.50, 1126.40, 1338.00, 1464.00, 1108.00, and 1650.00 respectively [5]. 3.2 Spot Price - On November 21, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1367 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West Coast route) price was 1645 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East Coast) price was 2384 US dollars/FEU. On November 24, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1639.37 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West Coast) was 1107.85 points [5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.9184 million TEU. Among them, 71 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU, and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [6]. - In November, the average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks was 343,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 48/49 were 336,200/351,300 TEU respectively. In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 303,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50/51/52/53 were 305,800/278,000/302,600/329,100 TEU respectively. In January, the monthly average weekly capacity was 310,100 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 2/3/4/5 were 346,900/293,400/299,000/301,300 TEU respectively. There was 1 TBN and 3 blank sailings in December [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - Maersk's spokesperson said that the Suez Canal Authority's previous statement about resuming navigation in December was false, and the company has not determined when it will resume partial voyages through the Suez Canal [3]. - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal reopening in 2026 is relatively high. Hapag - Lloyd said that if the Suez Canal resumes navigation, it will probably be after the Spring Festival in 2026 [5]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No relevant information provided in the content that can be specifically summarized for this part.

化工日报 | 2025-11-26 泰国主产区降雨将逐步减少 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15125元/吨，较前一日变动-195元/吨；NR主力合约12150元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约10270元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1830美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1720 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。 ...