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宏观氛围延续,聚烯烃偏强运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the macro - atmosphere persists, and polyolefins are running strongly, but the impact of the sentiment side is narrowing. International oil prices and propane prices are running strongly, and the cost support for polyolefins is strengthening. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are scheduled for maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP maintenance plants have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range. The overall operating rates of downstream polyolefin industries have not changed much, and terminal enterprises have a small number of new orders, with cautious procurement [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7462 yuan/ton (+44), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7274 yuan/ton (+60). The spot price of LL in North China is 7450 yuan/ton (+80), the spot price of LL in East China is 7470 yuan/ton (+50), and the spot price of PP in East China is 7280 yuan/ton (+30). The basis of LL in North China is - 12 yuan/ton (+36), the basis of LL in East China is 8 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis of PP in East China is 6 yuan/ton (-30) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (-0.5%), PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). PE oil - based production profit is - 271.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 681.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 110.1 yuan/ton (-76.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - The document does not provide specific data for this part 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 4.3 yuan/ton (+22.4), PP import profit is - 347.3 yuan/ton (-31.0), and PP export profit is 0.4 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (-0.8%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The document does not provide specific data for this part, only mentions that the overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range [2]
FICC日报:关注以伊冲突和中国6月LPR报价-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, wait for fundamental verification; allocate more gold on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the verification of economic facts, the domestic economic foundation needs to be consolidated, and pay attention to the possibility of further fiscal stimulus [1] - Trump's tariff policies are uncertain, and the market is affected by various factors such as economic data and central bank policies [2] - The Israel-Iran conflict is intensifying, which may lead to significant fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, commodities, and financial markets [3] - Commodities are affected by short-term geopolitical conflicts, and different types of commodities have different price trends [4] Market Analysis - In April, domestic data was mixed, with exports slightly exceeding expectations, investment weakening, fiscal revenue and expenditure rising, and consumption under pressure [1] - In May, China's industrial增加值 growth slowed down, consumption strengthened, and investment declined. Exports increased slightly year-on-year, and imports decreased [1] - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism reached a consensus, and China and Russia exchanged views on the Middle East situation [1] - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff order exceeded his authority, but the measure can continue to take effect during the appeal process [2] - The US retail sales in May decreased significantly, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but the outlook is uncertain [2] - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified, with both sides launching attacks on each other, and the international community has called for a ceasefire [3] Commodity Analysis - From the perspective of tariff review, different commodities have different price trends under the influence of tariffs [4] - Energy prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose [4] - Gold is recommended to be allocated on dips [4][5] Strategy - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, wait for fundamental verification [5] - Allocate more gold on dips [5] To-Do News - Japan plans to cut the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds by 10% from July and increase the issuance of short-term bonds [2][7] - Israel's air defense system may only last about 10 days due to the rapid consumption of interceptor missiles [3][7] - International oil prices have risen due to the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz [3][7] - US officials are preparing to strike Iran in the coming days [3]
国债期货日报:政策呵护期内,国债期货涨跌分化-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the policy support period, treasury bond futures showed divergent trends. The central bank's operations and policy adjustments aimed to boost credit, stabilize market expectations, and promote high - quality economic development. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations affected market risk appetite, and the suspension of tariffs and export rush provided short - term support for domestic demand, which might delay the subsequent policy rhythm. In the context of capital disturbances, policy wait - and - see, and supply pressure in June, the bond market will maintain a short - term volatile and slightly strong pattern, and a clear policy signal is needed to break the situation [1][2][3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30%. Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, with a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%; manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02%. Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index was 98.79, with a decrease of 0.06 and a decline rate of 0.06%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1932, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.26%; DR007 was 1.54, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.14%; R007 was 1.64, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.60, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.37%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.37% [7][8] 3.2 Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds with various terms, the valuation change of treasury bonds with various terms in the past day, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, etc [9][13][15] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report shows multiple charts such as the bond lending turnover and the total position of treasury bond futures, the trading - to - position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank repurchase with collateral, and the issuance of local government bonds [24][26][27] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2*TS - TF), etc [32][35] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [38][40][51] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [47][50][53] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [58][60] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][70][72]
甲醇日报:市场担忧MTO装置检修-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Iranian methanol plant shutdowns will affect future Chinese arrivals. Port inventories decreased slightly this week, and the absolute inventory level is seasonally low. After the port basis strengthened rapidly, it declined slightly. The market is worried about the loss and maintenance of port MTO plants that purchase methanol externally. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will be realized. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol operation rate remains high, but the inland plant inventory also decreased this week, and the inland demand resilience exceeded expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (e.g., methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads (e.g., spreads between methanol 01, 05, and 09 futures contracts) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][30][31] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operation rate (including integrated) are presented [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. are shown [38][46][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [44][53] 4. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously go long for hedging [4]. 5. Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 710 yuan/ton (+8). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2005 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 62 yuan/ton (-19); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2030 yuan/ton (+30). Shandong Linyi is 2388 yuan/ton (+33), with a basis of 45 yuan/ton (+7); Henan is 2280 yuan/ton (+35), with a basis of - 63 yuan/ton (+9); Hebei is 2195 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 88 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 367,350 tons (-11,770), and the Northwest factory inventory is 237,000 tons (-100). The inland factory pending orders are 274,780 tons (-27,310), and the Northwest factory pending orders are 149,500 tons (-17,500) [1] Port - Taicang methanol is 2765 yuan/ton (+65), with a basis of 222 yuan/ton (+39), CFR China is 304 US dollars/ton (+6), and the East China import spread is 29 yuan/ton (+32). Changzhou methanol is 2545 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2640 yuan/ton (+70), with a basis of 97 yuan/ton (+44) [2] - Longzhong's total port inventory is 586,400 tons (-65,800), Jiangsu port inventory is 293,500 tons (-18,500), Zhejiang port inventory is 143,500 tons (-12,500), and Guangdong port inventory is 99,500 tons (-24,500). The downstream MTO operation rate is 88.54% (-0.02%) [2] Regional Spreads - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is 210 yuan/ton (+58), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is 128 yuan/ton (+33); Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 478 yuan/ton (-33); Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 305 yuan/ton (+5); East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is 225 yuan/ton (+65) [2]
尿素日报:下游跟进放缓,尿素小幅回落-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:51
尿素日报 | 2025-06-20 下游跟进放缓,尿素小幅回落 需求端:截至2025-06-19,复合肥产能利用率31.82%(-1.99%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%(+0.55%);尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日(+0.58)。 尿素下游跟进放缓,盘面小幅回落。以色列伊朗军事冲突持续,国际尿素价格高位运行,出口与外盘价格提振, 港口库存呈现小幅增加趋势。当前正值传统农需旺季,全国大部分地区水稻、玉米等作物的追肥旺季,多数企业 新单成交尚可,尿素企业订单天数小幅增加。同时下游工业需求减弱,复合肥、三聚氰胺等行业开工率环比走低。 尿素产量持续处于高位,且未来检修计划较少,供应端压力较大,市场呈现供大于求格局,厂内库存处于高位。 策略 中性。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 市场分析 价格与基差:2025-06-19,尿素主力收盘1780元/吨(-9);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1830 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1840元/吨(+10);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1840元/吨(-10);小块无烟煤750元/吨(+0),山东基差:60 元/吨(+19);河南基差:50 ...
液碱库存环比回落,PVC社库去化放缓
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:51
Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The supply pressure of PVC remains high due to limited new maintenance, slight decline in overall operating load, and expected new production capacity in June - July. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down, with the possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The cost support is not strong, and the price is driven up by market sentiment. It is recommended to take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term [3][4]. - Caustic Soda: The overall operating rate of caustic soda is at a high level, and the supply pressure will increase with expected new production capacity in June - July. The demand from the alumina sector has a slight recovery, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The short - term price follows the basis repair logic, but the inventory is high, and the comprehensive profit has room for compression. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [3][4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4900 yuan/ton (+1), the East China basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+9), and the South China basis is - 50 yuan/ton (-11) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4770 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit is - 8.3 US dollars/ton (-4.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory inventory is 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 76.74% (-0.09%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2288 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 306 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1380 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 900.3 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 267.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1284.03 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 36.65 tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.85 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 81.20% (+0.30%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 80.87% (+0.52%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 80.80% (+0.24%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Limited new maintenance, slightly lower overall operating load, high supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Weak domestic demand, slow inventory depletion rate, and possible inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - Cost: Weak cost support [3]. - Price: Driven up by market sentiment [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: High overall operating rate, increasing supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Slight recovery in alumina demand, weak non - aluminum demand, and continuous negative feedback from the demand side [3]. - Price: Short - term basis repair logic, but high inventory and lack of upward driving force [3]. Strategy - PVC: Take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term. Pay attention to export dynamics and new production progress [4]. - Caustic Soda: Take a cautious and bearish view, as the inventory is high and the comprehensive profit has room for compression [4].
液化石油气日报:伊朗LPG发货量显著下滑-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:35
液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-20 伊朗LPG发货量显著下滑 市场分析 1、\t6月19日地区价格:山东市场,4530-4700;东北市场,4050-4210;华北市场,4435-4650;华东市场,4580-4700; 沿江市场,4780-4900;西北市场,4300-4400;华南市场,4550-4750。数据来源:卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷653美元/吨,涨2美元/吨,丁烷578美元/吨,稳定,折合人民 币价格丙烷5157元/吨,涨14元/吨,丁烷4564元/吨,跌2元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷650美元/吨,涨2美元/吨,丁烷578美元/吨,稳定,折合人民 币价格丙烷5133元/吨,涨14元/吨,丁烷4564元/吨,跌2元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 伊以冲突目前仍在发酵中,能源板块走势偏强,PG期货持续反弹。相比之下,国内现货价格表现相对平淡,基差 明显回落。作为中东地缘冲突的中心,伊朗今年出口量水平在100万吨/月左右,其中80%左右的LPG直接发往中国。 6月份伊朗LPG发货已经有减少迹象。参考 ...
石油沥青日报:成本端支撑偏强,盘面延续涨势-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:34
石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-20 成本端支撑偏强,盘面延续涨势 市场分析 1、6月19日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3738元/吨,较昨日结算价上涨55元/吨,涨幅 1.49%;持仓279495手,环比上涨5127手,成交298748手,环比上涨38381手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3930—4086元/吨;山东,3650—4030元/吨;华南,3580—3650元/吨; 华东,3680—3770元/吨。 昨日华北以及山东地区沥青现货价格有所上涨,华南地区沥青现货价格出现下跌,其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳 为主。在中东局势冲突的影响下,油价维持偏强运行,沥青成本端支撑仍存。就沥青自身基本面而言,整体供需 两弱格局延续,库存维持低位。由于沥青刚性需求较为疲软,部分地区市场情绪仍较为谨慎。整体来看,目前沥 青自身基本面驱动不足,盘面价格上涨主要受到原油端带动,情绪因素居多,考虑到中东局势仍不明朗,市场或 面临反复扰动。 策略 单边:震荡偏强,关注伊以冲突局势发展 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求 ...
马士基7月第一周价格下修,部分船司仍意图提涨下半月价格
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route were revised down in the first week of July, while some shipping companies still intended to raise prices in the second half of the month [1]. - The supply and demand of the US routes both increased. The freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West of the US reached a high level and then declined, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether the prices have peaked [3]. - In August, it is the traditional peak season. There is still an expectation of price increase, and attention should be paid to the peak - time of the European route freight rates in 2025 and the downward slope of the subsequent freight rates [7]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and relatively less direct impact on container transportation [6]. - The delay of ships dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th, and the 06 contract will gradually return to the "real - world" trading as the delivery deadline approaches [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of June 20, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 88,168.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,531.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1438.00, 1236.90, 1891.50, 2022.20, 1406.10, and 1590.50 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on June 13th was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on June 16th was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU. Among them, 37 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 557,200 TEU; 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 142,400 TEU [8]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June was 321,000 TEU, the monthly weekly average capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 350,000 TEU. The capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered rapidly in June [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European routes decreased. The capacity of the Shanghai - European route in the last week of June was 250,200 TEU. The monthly weekly average capacity in July was 279,500 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in August was 271,300 TEU. There were a total of 8 blank sailings in July [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The delay of ships such as EVER MERCY, HMM HAMBURG, ONE INTELLIGENCE, and MSC BIANCA SILVIA affected the SCFIS on June 16th, and it was expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The delay of ships will have a negative impact on the final valuation [5]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US routes increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the freight rates soared under the background of supply - demand mismatch. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small as the Middle East is not the core hub of global container trade [6].
持续关注上游行业价格波动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Keep a close eye on price fluctuations in upstream industries, and pay attention to mid - level events and the overall situation of different industries [1] - Notice the policy promotion in the entertainment and consumption industries [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Mid - level Event Overview 3.1.1 Production Industry - The review of rare earth exports in upstream raw materials is accelerating. China is accelerating the review of rare earth - related export license applications and has approved a certain number of compliant applications [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments held a video conference on strengthening the safety management of new energy vehicles, requiring enterprises to assume product quality and safety responsibilities and avoid cut - throat competition [1] 3.1.2 Service Industry - Beijing issued a support plan to promote the high - quality development of the game and e - sports industry, aiming to promote the in - depth integration of technologies such as AI and AIGC with the industry [2] 3.2 Industry Overview 3.2.1 Upstream - International oil prices have been rising recently, and coal inventories have declined [3] 3.2.2 Mid - stream - The PX operating rate is at a high level, and the operating rate of pig products has increased slightly [4] 3.2.3 Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a low level in the past three years; the number of domestic flights has decreased periodically [5] 3.3 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [6] 3.4 Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry have shown different trends compared with last year, a quarter ago, a month ago, and last week [52] 3.5 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various products in different industries such as agriculture, non - ferrous metals, energy, and chemicals have different year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [53]