Hua Tai Qi Huo
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新能源及有色金属日报:多空博弈剧烈,碳酸锂高开低走-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:49
1. Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,200 yuan/ton and closed at 73,340 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 361,093 lots, and the open interest was 229,022 lots, down from 231,964 lots the previous trading day. The current basis was 170 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 42,379 lots, a change of 670 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 830 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. After the holiday, the market trading was light, and both upstream and downstream were on the sidelines. New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and the total output of lithium carbonate in October was expected to have growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 119 tons to 20,635 tons. The output from spodumene production increased slightly, while the output from mica production decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,024 tons to 134,801 tons. The inventory of smelters increased, while the inventory in the intermediate links and downstream decreased [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE), all to China, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 9% and 21% respectively. The average export price was 3,249 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 561% and 45% respectively. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 31,900 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 127% (an increase of 34,700 tons) [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 13% and 6% respectively. The average export price was 8,704 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 15% and 2% respectively. Among them, the amount exported to China was 11,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%), the amount exported to Japan was 370 tons, and the amount exported to South Korea was 3,999 tons. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% (a decrease of 15,300 tons). The amount exported to China was 120,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (a decrease of 23,900 tons), the amount exported to Japan was 4,801 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%, and the amount exported to South Korea was 29,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 76% [2]. - On October 9, 2025, Cailian Press reported that Zangge Mining (000408.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., recently received the Certificate of Real Estate Right (Mining Right) and the Mining License issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. The mine is the Qarhan Salt Lake Potash - Magnesium Mine of Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., with an area of 724.3493 square kilometers and a mining depth from 2,680 meters to 2,658 meters above sea level. The mining minerals include the main mineral of potash salt, and the associated minerals of salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore, and boron ore [3]. 2. Strategy - The futures market opened high and closed low on the day. There was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbances at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines were restarted later and consumption weakened, the market might decline [4]. - Unilateral: In the short term, conduct range - bound operations and sell hedges on rallies [4]. - There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].
化工日报:原料价格下跌,PF和PR加工费上涨-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core Viewpoints - The cost side shows that before the National Day, the strong oil price was mainly driven by geopolitics, with a weak fundamental situation. After the National Day, the slowdown in China's import demand and the increase in US exports, along with the increase in Middle - East exports, have led to an oversupply situation [1] - For PX, the PXN was $222/ton (a month - on - month increase of $3.50/ton). The PX load in China has recovered to a relatively high level, and with the restart of several overseas plants, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponed fourth - quarter maintenance plan and capacity expansion of some plants have put pressure on PXN. The downstream PTA plants have more maintenance plans, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook [1] - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 63 yuan/ton (no month - on - month change), the PTA spot processing fee is 152 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 312 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton). The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October and November, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [2] - In terms of demand, the polyester operation rate is 91.5% (a month - on - month increase of 1.2%). In late September, the weaving and texturing loads increased, and orders improved marginally. Before the National Day, the replenishment demand led to a significant increase in filament sales, and the polyester factory's product inventory decreased significantly [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 251 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load has reached a high level, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials [3] - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 507 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). In the short term, the bottle - chip load remains stable, and the export order - taking and shipping performance are average. There is large supply - demand pressure under the upcoming commissioning of the new Fuhai plant [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operation rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [69][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][91][100]
农产品日报:苹果稳中有涨,红枣震荡上行-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:48
农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 苹果稳中有涨,红枣震荡上行 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘苹果2601合约8633元/吨,较前一日变动+16元/吨,幅度+0.19%。现货方面,山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP01-1033,较前一日变动-16;陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP01+967,较前一日变动-16。 近期市场资讯,国庆期间西北、山东产区晚富士普遍处于摘袋后上色及红货少量上市阶段,受到连续阴雨影响, 西部产区上色较慢,山东产区部分前期未完成的摘袋工作被迫延迟,红货大量供应时间较去年推迟。山东产区集 中收购时间预计10月15日前后,西部订货客商不多,陕西产区还未进入集中订货期。目前晚熟富士多处于等待上 色阶段,少量红货上市交易,价格高于去年0.5-1.0元/斤不等,少数客商订购,零星交易不成规模,实际参考有限, 继续关注后续上量后价格表现。且需关注连续降雨天气对晚富士上色及质量影响。 市场分析 苹果期价昨日微幅走高,山东栖霞、陕西洛川现货价格持稳,客商拿货意 ...
化工日报:国庆期间EG主港大幅累库-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The spot price of EG in the East China market decreased by -1.43% to 4214 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main EG contract decreased by -1.16% to 4158 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -63 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change; the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons. From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. During the National Day holiday, there were many arrivals of foreign ships, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port to replenish supplies. On the demand side, the demand was slightly boosted by pre-holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The overall balance sheet of EG has a large pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the inventory may bottom out and rebound [2]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, cautiously short and hedge at high prices. For inter - period trading, conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605. There is no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3]. Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4214 yuan/ton (a change of -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.43%), and the closing price of the main EG contract was 4158 yuan/ton (a change of -49 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.16%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -63 US dollars/ton (a week-on-week increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences were provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Before the festival, the demand was slightly boosted by stocking, and the sales of filament improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load was limited. The sustainability of the demand recovery needs attention [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons (a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons). From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1].
农产品日报:现货持续下跌,猪价偏弱运行-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:44
农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 综合来看,从能繁的环比数据来看,未来生猪的供应仍将保持增长状态,预计散户的出栏增长会较为明显。由于 10月的长假影响了生猪出栏的进度,会导致节后集团出栏节奏继续加快。但节后的需求端预计会出现短时间的下 降,供大于求的情况可能会进一步加剧,整体供应压力将会持续释放。 策略 谨慎偏空 现货持续下跌,猪价偏弱运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2511合约11595元/吨,较前交易日变动-760.00元/吨,幅度-6.15%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.22元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.49元/公斤,现货基差 LH11-375,较前交易日变动-590;江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.69元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤,现货基差LH11+95,较前交易日变动-410;四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.15元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤,现货基差LH11-445,较前交易日变动+70。 据农业农村部监测,10月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.47,比节前下降0.29个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为119 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:出口窗口打开,交易逻辑转变-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:43
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and may soon exceed the five - year average. The supply pressure is prominent, and the domestic inventory build - up is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. Zinc prices may be under pressure if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories should be noted [4] Group 3: Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $59.11 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan, with a premium of - 35 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On October 9, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,040 yuan per ton, closed at 22,315 yuan per ton, up 380 yuan. The trading volume was 137,234 lots, and the open interest was 113,253 lots. The highest price was 22,340 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 150,200 tons, a change of 8,800 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 38,250 tons, with no change from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, and smelting profits are increasing, leading to high smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory build - up is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4] Group 5: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游刚需采购为主,成交仍显偏淡-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:43
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View - After the National Day holiday, there may be a situation where the operating rate of secondary lead production recovers while battery consumption declines slightly. However, the tight supply pattern at the mine end remains unchanged. Coupled with the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and the driving effect of the sharp rise of precious metals on various non - ferrous metal varieties, it is recommended to mainly use bargain - hunting buying hedging for lead prices at present [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On October 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.30/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM lead spot prices in different regions had different changes, and lead scrap prices remained unchanged [1] - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,199 lots, a decrease of 5,406 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 41,077 lots, a decrease of 1,556 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.44% from the afternoon closing price. After the holiday, the lead ingot inventory of smelters in Henan and Hunan increased, and the market transaction was weak [2] - **Inventory**: On October 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons compared with the previous week. As of October 9, the LME lead inventory was 237,450 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use bargain - hunting buying hedging for lead prices [3]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:节后纯苯库存再度下降,苯乙烯库存压力仍存-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:27
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the inventory of pure benzene decreased again, but the inventory pressure of styrene still exists. For pure benzene, although the port inventory decreased after the holiday and downstream提货 was still active, there are doubts about the long - term procurement sustainability of some downstream products. For styrene, the port inventory continued to accumulate slightly after the holiday, with high inventory pressure, and the downstream提货 performance was average. The supply pressure is expected to increase both domestically and from overseas imports [1][2]. - It is recommended to short - sell BZ and EB on rallies for hedging, do reverse hedging on the spread of EB2511 - EB2512 on rallies, and narrow the spread of EB2512 - BZ2503 on rallies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - The basis of pure benzene's main contract is - 13 yuan/ton (- 73), and the spread between East China's pure benzene spot and M2 is 35 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton). The basis of styrene's main contract is - 28 yuan/ton (+ 7 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 126 dollars/ton (+ 4 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+ 7 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 69.6 dollars/ton (- 5.0 dollars/ton). Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 486 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 9.10 tons (- 1.50 tons). Styrene: East China port inventory is 201,900 tons (+ 4,400 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 116,400 tons (+ 9,600 tons). The operating rate of pure benzene's downstream products such as aniline and adipic acid increased, and the operating rate of styrene is 73.6% (+ 2.4%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is 228 yuan/ton (- 90 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 72 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 34 yuan/ton (- 175 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 40.74% (- 2.37%), PS operating rate is 54.60% (- 1.70%), ABS operating rate is 72.50% (+ 1.50%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1900 yuan/ton (+ 110), phenol - acetone production profit is - 332 yuan/ton (+ 51), aniline production profit is 478 yuan/ton (+ 140), adipic acid production profit is - 1325 yuan/ton (- 19). Caprolactam operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (- 1.00%), aniline operating rate is 77.16% (+ 1.12%), adipic acid operating rate is 66.90% (+ 4.00%) [1].
丙烷跌价明显,成本端拖累丙烯走弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: PL01 - 02 short at high prices; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, a PDH plant in Shandong was overhauled ahead of schedule during the holiday, and there are plans for shutdown and overhaul of PDH plants in Bohua and Hebei Haiwei after the holiday. The restart of Ningbo Jinfa's Phase I PDH was postponed to the end of October, providing support to the supply side. The spot price of propylene in Shandong stopped falling and rose slightly, while the futures price was still dragged down by the cost side [2]. - On the demand side, downstream factories reduced their pre - holiday inventory replenishment and were still constrained by cost pressure. The inventory replenishment demand was poor, and they mainly made rigid purchases at low prices. The low propylene price drove some PP plants that purchase externally to restart before the holiday. Although some phenol - acetone and propylene oxide plants are expected to shut down, the demand for polypropylene, the main downstream product, may increase. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the demand side [2]. - On the cost side, international oil prices continued to be under pressure due to weak demand. The official price of Saudi CP in October was significantly lowered, and the price of propane in the external market dropped sharply, weakening the cost support for propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures include propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil production capacity utilization rate of major refineries [15][23][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures cover the difference between FOB in South Korea and CFR in China, the difference between CFR in Japan and CFR in China, the difference between CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Profit and Operating Rate of Propylene Downstream Products - The report shows the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][41][44] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]
黑色建材日报:市场弱现实持续,钢材价格震荡运行-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:26
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The market's weak reality persists, and steel prices are oscillating. The glass and soda ash markets have a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with prices oscillating. The dual - silicon market has high finished product inventories, and alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Yesterday, glass futures oscillated with large intraday fluctuations and active trading. The main 2601 contract fell 0.98% at the close. Spot market quotes were generally stable, but trading sentiment weakened. Domestic strong policy expectations intermittently boosted low - valued commodity prices, disturbing the market. Currently, glass production is generally stable, and overall rigid demand has limited changes. The weak fundamentals still strongly suppress prices, and policy changes and glass supply should be continuously monitored [1] - Soda Ash: Yesterday, soda ash futures oscillated weakly with active trading. The main 2601 contract fell 1.73% at the close, and all contracts declined to varying degrees. In the spot market, some heavy - soda quotes were lowered, and the spot - futures trading situation was good. Domestic strong policy expectations intermittently boosted low - valued commodity prices, disturbing the market. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains, and the subsequent supply pressure will further increase. The spot - futures price premium stimulates spot - futures purchases, strongly suppressing near - term prices. Supply changes and downstream demand should be continuously monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Dual - Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Since the National Day holiday, the inventory accumulation of steel products, mainly building materials, has exceeded market expectations. Although there was a rebound in the afternoon affected by coking coal, the rebound was still weak. The main contract closed at 5768 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. After the holiday, the market was stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5620 - 5670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Overall, silicomanganese production remained high and stable, and downstream demand for silicomanganese was resilient. There was still support for silicomanganese prices after the holiday. In the long term, the supply - demand of the silicomanganese industry is relatively loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector. Changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies should be monitored [3] - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures showed a weak downward trend. The main contract closed at 5472 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, market sentiment worsened, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5800 - 6100 yuan/ton. Overall, ferrosilicon production in September remained high, but with continuous profit compression, pre - holiday sentiment declined, and the improvement in ferrosilicon demand during the traditional peak season was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector, and cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies should be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]