FICC日报 | 2025-06-17 以伊冲突致美债收益率曲线走陡，关注日本央行利率决议 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。中国5月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，较前值继续回落，主 要受制造业拖累，美国关税的不利影响显现。中国5月社会消费品零售同比增速加快至6.4%，表现良好，家用电器 和音像器材零售增长53%，体现政策支持对居民消费的带动作用。5月70城房价中各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大， 一线、二线新房房价环比转降，房地产市场景气度扔较低，市场供求关系仍待改善。投资方面，基础设施投资同 比增长5.6%，制造业投资增长8.5%，房地产开发投资下降10.7%，三大分项增速均下行，带动固定资产投资增速整 体继续放缓，投资对经济的贡献持续下降。整体看，5月国内经济基础仍待夯实。中国5月按美元计出口同比增长 4.8%，略低于一季度的5.7%和4月的8.1%，进口下降3.4%。从集装箱的船 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral for unilateral trading, and there is no rating for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing a significant increase in international oil prices. This has strengthened the cost support for polyolefins. PE's supply remains high as some previously - shut - down plants have resumed operation, while PP's supply pressure is large due to the return of shut - down plants. The upstream inventory reduction is limited. In the seasonal off - season, downstream demand is weak, mainly driven by rigid demand from end - users. Although the agricultural film industry has bottomed out, it is still at a low level, and demand is not sufficient to drive the market. PDH - based PP production is in the red, with new and extended plant shutdowns, providing strong cost support for PP [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7338元/吨（+80），PP主力合约收盘价为7133元/吨（+44），LL华北现货为7300元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（+100），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为 - 38元/吨（+20），LL华东基差为12元/吨（+20），PP华东基差为47元/吨（ - 14） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.2%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.6%（+1.6%）；PE油制生产利润为 - 244.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 584.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PDH制PP生产利润为33.4元/吨（+97.2） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Spread of Polyolefins - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 205.0元/吨（ - 12.8），PP进口利润为 - 352.7元/吨（+62.1），PP出口利润为6.7美元/吨（ - 7.6） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（ - 0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（ - 0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（ - 0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-17 成本端支撑偏强，基本面驱动有限 市场分析 1、6月16日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3667元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨28元/吨，涨幅 0.77%；持仓266576手，环比上涨4385手，成交296966手，环比下降235713手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3930—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4000元/吨；华南，3550—3650元/吨； 华东，3680—3770元/吨。 昨日国内各区域沥青现货价格均出现上涨，由于原油以及沥青期货整体维持高位波动，对沥青现货市场情绪仍有 支撑，现货市场挺价意愿偏强。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续。近期炼厂供应出现边际回升， 但增长幅度有限。与此同时，终端需求基本盘相对稳固，但在资金状况与降雨天气制约下增长动力不足。此外， 库存维持低位，近期呈现去库态势，市场下方支撑仍存。整体来看，目前沥青自身基本面驱动不足，当前盘面价 格波动主要受到原油端影响，考虑到中东局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复扰动。 策略 单边：震荡偏强，关注伊以冲突局势发展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has boosted global market risk appetite, leading to a technical rebound in major stock indices. However, domestic funds remain cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. From January to May, the national fixed-asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively in May. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May, the decline in new construction continued to narrow at a low level, the decline in investment slightly expanded, and the inventory of commercial housing has decreased for three consecutive months [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Iran has expressed its willingness to restart negotiations on the premise that the United States does not participate in the Israeli attack, and hopes to limit the attacks to a limited scope [1]. - **Stock Market Performance**: A-share three major indices fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35% to close at 3388.73 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.26%. The sector indices rose more and fell less, with the media, communication, computer, and real estate industries leading the gains, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, and non-ferrous metal industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.2 trillion yuan. The three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 1.52% to 19701.21 points [1]. Futures Market - **Basis**: This Friday, the current-month contracts were delivered, and the basis of IF, IH, and IC rebounded. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of all stock index futures decreased [2]. Strategy - Driven by the positive signal of the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the risk appetite of the global market has been repaired, and the main stock indices have shown a technical rebound. The domestic capital market remains cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [3]. Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, the trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the margin trading balance [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Present the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the basis of stock index futures, and the inter - period spreads of stock index futures [15][35][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the粕类 and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the new - season US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the sowing progress is significantly higher than the historical average. The supply - demand report this month has no significant adjustments. In China, the rise in Brazilian premiums has supported the price of粕类, but the overall supply is still abundant due to high arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, high oil - mill operating rates, and rising粕类 inventories [1][2] - For the corn market, in China, the supply side shows that traders in Northeast China are raising prices and are reluctant to sell, while in North China, corn circulation is tight. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders. The weather in the US corn - growing belt is favorable [3][4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean粕 2509 contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.13%) from the previous day; the rapeseed粕 2509 contract was 2671 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean粕 spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed粕 spot price was 2610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: The US EPA's new proposal will increase the biomass diesel blending target to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026. If the target is met, the total raw material required will be 20.8 million tons, with soybean oil consumption at 8.32 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons (38.5%) from 2024 [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - New - season US soybean sowing is going well, and the sowing progress is higher than the historical average. The supply - demand report has no significant adjustments. In China, high Brazilian premiums have increased import costs, supporting the bean粕 price, but the supply is still abundant due to high arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, high oil - mill operating rates, and rising bean粕 inventories [1][2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2359 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.80%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2689 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: The weather in the US corn - growing belt is favorable, with alternating sunny and rainy weather expected in most central areas in the next two weeks. Adequate rainfall has helped relieve drought in some areas [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In China, on the supply side, traders in Northeast China are raising prices, and in North China, corn circulation is tight. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Dragon Boat Festival, both supply and demand have slightly increased. Coupled with the overall price increase in the non - ferrous metals sector, the lead price has also rebounded. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.93/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead prices in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the lead scrap spread remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton, closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 30,240 lots, down 2,474 lots, and the position was 42,057 lots, down 1,547 lots. The night - session price rose 0.35% compared with the afternoon closing [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - The downstream maintained rigid - demand procurement. Due to the discounted recycled lead in some regions, the rigid - demand was diverted, and the trading was relatively light. On June 16, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of June 16, the LME lead inventory was 263,475 tons, a decrease of 3,775 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Price Strategy**: Maintain a neutral view, and expect the lead price to fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - straddle [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-17 苹果产区交易分化，红枣启动环割工作 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7610元/吨，较前一日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+590，较前一日变动-25；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1990，较前一日变动-25。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场整体交投淡稳，冷库出货氛围一般，询价客户不多，产区新季苹果套袋工作进入后期。 西部产区客商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体惜售情绪减弱；山东产区大 果及好果走货一般，客商寻货不积极。销区市场市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库 内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果 农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [6] - Option investment rating: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic long - term contract prices are still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. Downstream refined copper rod enterprises report a continuous decline in orders, and future demand outlook is highly uncertain. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On June 16, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 77,910 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the night - session was 78,640 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 78,650 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, in the morning, the offer of iron peak copper with a premium of about 200 yuan/ton was quickly snapped up. Subsequently, the premium of market supplies was 230 - 280 yuan/ton. The supply of high - quality copper remained tight with a premium of 330 - 350 yuan/ton. The premium of BMK, BOR, etc. was 160 - 180 yuan/ton. Due to the contract change, most holders were reluctant to sell at low prices. Thousands of tons of Russian copper arrived over the weekend, with a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton for transactions. It is expected that today's spot premium will start above 200 yuan/ton [2] 1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials signaled their intention to end hostilities and resume nuclear - project negotiations. They are willing to return to the negotiation table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. The weekend's geopolitical conflicts did not affect the transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil price did not rise further, and the Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts remained cautious, with the US dollar gradually stabilizing [3] - **Domestic Aspects**: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3] 1.4 Mining End - The open - pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of Vientiane Mining, a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., officially started. It is the first large - scale copper project restarted since 2021, marking Vientiane Mining's return to the "gold - copper parallel" era. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit point [4] 1.5 Smelting and Import - According to Mysteel, the spot trading volume of electrolytic copper of 53 domestic trading enterprises was 2.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons or 12% from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased, the market quotes varied on the delivery day, and the downstream's purchasing sentiment was low, and the trading activities of trading enterprises also declined [4] 1.6 Consumption - According to Mysteel, the order volume of 31 domestic copper rod production enterprises was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.36 million tons or 55.77% from the previous trading day. Among them, the order volume of refined copper rods was 0.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.39 million tons or 63.29%, and the order volume of recycled copper rods was 0.27 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons or 14.24% [5] 1.7 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 7,150 tons to 107,325 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,782 tons to 47,051 tons. On June 16, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.77 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons from the previous week [5] 2. Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [6] - **Option**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For PVC, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak with insufficient upward drivers, but the current valuation is low, and the instability in the Middle East may boost the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Attention should be paid to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4] - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to remain weak, with rising and hard - to - digest factory inventories. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4860 yuan/ton (+1), the East China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis was - 40 yuan/ton (-31) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4820 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2880 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit was - 4.0 US dollars/ton (-3.4) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory was 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.45% (+0.55%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 67.36% (-3.77%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.83% (-0.64%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2276 yuan/ton (+13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 380 yuan/ton (-76) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton (-20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1380 yuan/ton (-20) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1665 yuan/ton (-63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 882.0 yuan/ton (-182.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 310.03 yuan/ton (-132.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1405.55 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.53 tons (+2.32), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operating rate was 80.90% (-2.60%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operating rate was 80.87% (+0.52%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 61.36% (-0.14%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 80.56% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Due to ongoing previous maintenance, the overall PVC operating level declined slightly month - on - month. With reduced future maintenance, production is expected to return. Supported by chlor - alkali profits, it is difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts. Coupled with the expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remains high [3] - Demand side: The operating rate of downstream products declined slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm was low, with the weak domestic demand pattern continuing. The PVC social inventory continued to decline month - on - month, but the destocking rate was slow. With increased supply and weak demand in the future, the social inventory may enter a restocking phase. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory. Export orders are being stably delivered, but there is no progress on the Indian BIS certification extension policy and anti - dumping policy. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the export side [3] - Medium - to - long - term: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak, with insufficient upward drivers. However, the current valuation is low, and the instability in the Middle East may boost the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Attention should be paid to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are still many upstream device maintenance, mostly concentrated in the North China and East China main regions. The operating rate in Shandong declined month - on - month. However, driven by good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production. The overall caustic soda operating rate remains high, and there is an expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, further increasing the supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operating rate of the main downstream alumina increased slightly, but the capacity return was not obvious after profit recovery, and the new production capacity in the second quarter was not fully released. The delivery volume of a Shandong alumina plant has returned to a high level, and the liquid caustic soda purchase price has started to be continuously reduced. Since June 17, it has been further reduced by 20 yuan to an ex - factory price of 800 yuan/ton, and the caustic soda spot price has also followed the decline. Non - aluminum demand remains weak, the printing and dyeing operating rate declined month - on - month, and the operating rate of terminals such as viscose staple fiber is at a low level. Downstream is cautious about high prices, and purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with continuous negative feedback on the demand side [3] - Cost side: The price of raw salt has fallen to a low level, and the power cost has decreased after the coal price reduction, so the cost support for caustic soda has shifted down [3] - Overall: The current comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is good, but the increasing factory inventory of caustic soda is difficult to digest. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak, with insufficient upward drivers. However, the current valuation is low, and the instability in the Middle East may boost the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Wait for a rebound to short on rallies. Continue to pay attention to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautiously short for hedging. The current comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is good, but the increasing factory inventory of caustic soda is difficult to digest. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot premium of zinc is moderately weak, and the inventory remains stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market is poor, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$22.95/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 240 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 20 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price drops by 280 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 60 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 230 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 10 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On June 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,745 yuan/ton and closes at 21,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 163,962 lots, a decrease of 27,075 lots, and the open interest is 116,264 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots. The highest price is 21,935 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory is 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream raw material reserves are relatively sufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm is poor. The spot premium shows a moderately weak trend. The domestic ore TC is temporarily stable, the zinc ore import window is closed, and the overseas Q3 import ore TC is rising. The smelter's raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the long - term upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged. The smelting profit is stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy start - up rate is increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" phenomenon. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market weakens, and the spot premium continues to decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]