Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to drive, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure and difficult price transmission. In the short - term, the trading situation has weakened, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions at low prices [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price trended stronger. The main contract 2511 opened at 9035 yuan/ton and closed at 9055 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (0.72%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 259,965 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,066 lots, an increase of 141 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 25 was 543,000 tons, unchanged from last week. Before the National Day, the downstream stocking demand increased, and the goods turnover in warehouses was good [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. This week, the DMC quotes of some domestic monomer enterprises increased slightly by 100 - 200 yuan/ton compared to last week. The slight increase in the transaction price of DMC this week was supported by cost, supply - demand, and expectations [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, go long at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 51,480 yuan/ton and closed at 51,365 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.89% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 105,474 lots, and the trading volume was 184,786 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory also increased. The overall market sentiment cooled down, with large inventory pressure and expected insufficient production reduction in October [3][5] Strategy - Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-26 美联储官员言论鸽派 贵金属延续偏强表现 市场分析 经济数据方面，美国第二季度GDP终值年化环比增长3.8%，较修正值3.3%大幅上调，创近两年最快增速；上修主 要得益于消费者支出的意外强劲以及进口的下降；核心PCE物价指数终值由2.5%上调至2.6%。利率方面，美联储 新晋理事米兰公开主张美联储迅速降息，以避免对美国经济造成损害；米兰警告称，当前的政策利率远高于他所 估计的"中性"水平，正处于"高度限制性"的区间；美联储"可以通过一轮非常短暂的、每次50个基点的降息来达到 目标"。除此之外，美联储理事鲍曼表示，通胀已足够接近美联储目标，鉴于就业市场正在走弱，有理由进一步下 调利率；而芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，如果经济数据显示通胀正处于达到央行目标的轨道之上，且劳动力市 场保持稳定，那么利率可能会进一步下行。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-25，沪金主力合约开于860.00元/克，收于854.72元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.61%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于854.00元/克，收于858.12元/克，较昨日午后 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is favorable with continuous inventory reduction, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. However, if the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 72,980 yuan/ton and closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, with a 0.93% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 342,719 lots, and the open interest was 261,141 lots (compared to 260,654 lots the previous day). The current basis was 350 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 40,309 lots, a change of 560 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 73,100 - 74,400 yuan/ton, a - 100 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,900 - 72,100 yuan/ton, also a - 100 yuan/ton change. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 830 US dollars/ton, a 3 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to fluctuate, with the main contract oscillating between 72,700 - 74,500 yuan/ton. As the pre - National Day stocking by downstream material factories nears the end, market wait - and - see sentiment is growing [1]. - The weekly production increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons, and the production from spodumene slightly increased. The weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, while the inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased as downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices [2]. - Tibet Mining's project of comprehensive green development and utilization of the Zabuye Salt Lake with an annual output of 10,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate was officially put into production after a successful 120 - hour functional assessment from September 20 to 24, 2025 [2]. Strategy - The futures market fluctuated widely on the day. Supported by the consumption peak season and continuous inventory reduction, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. But if the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline. - For single - side trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and selling hedging can be done at high prices. There are no suggestions for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market sentiment is fragile. The recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.63 and a growth rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1292, with a day - on - day increase of 0.010 and a growth rate of 0.14%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.58, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.38%; DR007 is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 0.96%; R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%; the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3 months is 1.61, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.12%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.12% [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple figures about the treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance [15][17][19]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals It provides figures on bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics and local government bond issuance [29]. 4. Spread Overview It includes figures on Shibor interest rate trends, yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) at maturity, cross - period spreads of treasury bond futures, and spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [32][35]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [52][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [57][61]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and treasury bond yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [64][66]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides figures on the implied yield and treasury bond yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [71][77]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rises, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is to expect a weak and volatile trend; for the inter - period strategy, it is recommended to short the spread of BU2511 - 2512 (reverse spread); there are no recommendations for cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - On September 25, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3440 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous settlement price. The position was 197,649 lots, down 19,248 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 175,377 lots, up 22,435 lots from the previous day. The spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in major domestic regions remained stable. The overall supply was abundant as the production increased with the continuous rise in the device operating rate. However, the demand side was weak, with some rush - construction demand in the north and weak terminal demand in the south affected by typhoon weather. The spot market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Despite the rebound in oil prices, the upward driving force for the asphalt futures market was still insufficient [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures Market: On September 25, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3440 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous settlement price; the position was 197,649 lots, down 19,248 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 175,377 lots, up 22,435 lots from the previous day [1] - Spot Market: The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3756 - 4086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3450 - 3720 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton in South China, and 3510 - 3600 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in major domestic regions remained stable. The supply was abundant, while the demand was weak, and the market wait - and - see sentiment was strong [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile [2] - Inter - period: Short the spread of BU2511 - 2512 (reverse spread) [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the spot price fell below the previous low, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was insufficient. The spot price fluctuated weakly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving sentiment before the festival. - The domestic demand is weak. The inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The start - up time of demand in Northeast China should be followed up. - Urea production remains at a high level. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating. The port inventory is decreasing. The export volume in September is still expected. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - The report presents the market prices of small - granular urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [7][8][16][18] Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [21][24] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes the production cost, spot production profit, and coal - based and gas - based production capacity utilization rates [25][26][30] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents the FOB prices of small - granular urea in the Baltic Sea and large - granular urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - granular urea in China, the price differences between them, and the export profit and the disk export profit [32][34][40][42][45] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][52][53] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume, and trading volume of the main contract [56][59][62]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - Pre - holiday downstream stocking and price decline boost spot market transactions, leading to a drop in social inventory, but the spot discount is hard to repair. The overseas and domestic markets deviate, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing, increasing the warehouse receipt risk and supporting prices, while the domestic market still has supply - side pressure and a cumulative inventory expectation despite the good consumption in the traditional peak season [4]. Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $59.64 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rises by 50 yuan/ton to 21,870 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rises by 60 yuan/ton to 21,890 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price rises by 50 yuan/ton to 21,870 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On September 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,935 yuan/ton and closes at 22,045 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 158,280 lots, and the open interest is 131,286 lots. The highest price is 22,060 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,890 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM is 150,400 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 43,800 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 冶炼及进口方面，9月24日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。铜冶 炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题是此次会议中代表反馈最集中的问题，也是行业当下最突 出的问题。中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结讲话中强调，铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争对行业 影响大，损害了国家和行业利益，与高质量发展导向存在偏差，铜行业企业要坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。 与此前的反内卷不同，此次反内卷更多针对于精铜冶炼企业，但由于国内冶炼企业多为大型国企，因此具体反内 卷措施如果落实仍有待观察。 反内卷指向冶炼企业 但具体政策落实则仍有待观察 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-25，沪铜主力合约开于 81000元/吨，收于 82710元/吨，较前一交易日收盘3.44%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 82290元/吨，收于 82380 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.40%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货转为贴水，SMM1#铜均价82130-82880元/吨，主力合约贴水30元/吨（跌25元）。沪 铜早 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The demand for both PE and PP remains weak, which continues to limit their upward potential and is still constrained by supply - side pressure. The recovery of demand is slow, and the cost support is insufficient. For PE, the supply is increasing, and the demand realization rate is slow; for PP, the supply pressure is large, and the profit at a low level restricts its downward space [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main - contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (+27), PP main - contract at 6,898 yuan/ton (+21). LL North China spot was 7,130 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 7,140 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6,750 yuan/ton (+20). LL North China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+23), LL East China basis - 29 yuan/ton (+3), PP East China basis - 148 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP开工率 was 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 48.7 yuan/ton (-128.7), PP oil - based production profit was - 571.3 yuan/ton (-128.7), PDH - based PP production profit was - 280.6 yuan/ton (-12.9) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 64.1 yuan/ton (+84.8), PP import profit was - 529.7 yuan/ton (-0.8), PP export profit was 15.0 US dollars/ton (-19.9) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.4% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply increased as many previously - shut - down plants restarted. Demand improved slightly with pre - holiday stocking, but the demand realization rate was slow, and social inventory decreased slowly. Cost support from international oil prices was insufficient [3]. - **PP**: Supply pressure was large due to expected restart of plants, increased coal - enterprise production, and new capacity release. Demand improved marginally but slowly. Cost was supported by firm propane, and low profit limited the downward space [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. The烧碱 market sees a decline in 32% alkali prices and stable 50% alkali prices. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues, and non - aluminum demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and new alumina production [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16), with an East China basis of - 205 yuan/ton (-6) and a South China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Spot Prices**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+10), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was 5.2 dollars/ton (+0.1) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.11% (+0.68%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1] 烧碱 - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2537 yuan/ton (-11), and the Shandong 32% liquid alkali basis was - 37 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid alkali was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong 50% liquid alkali was quoted at 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of Shandong caustic soda was 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Liquid alkali factory inventory was 39.12 tons (+1.29), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.08 tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+0.60%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The alumina operating rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the East China printing and dyeing operating rate was 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 89.82% (+0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. Attention should be paid to pre - National Day replenishment sentiment and macro - environment impacts [3] 烧碱 - The 32% alkali price has been continuously decreasing, while the 50% alkali price has stabilized. Production may increase slightly as some maintenance enterprises resume operations. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues. The 50% alkali inventory reduction drives the Shandong caustic soda inventory decline, but the national liquid alkali inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to the 32% alkali sales situation, non - aluminum demand resilience, new alumina production, and downstream replenishment [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Wait and see [4] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [4] 烧碱 - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [5]