流动性日报 | 2025-06-17 市场流动性概况 2025-06-16，股指板块成交4616.68亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.42%；持仓金额9694.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.31%；成交持仓比为47.49%。 国债板块成交2394.90亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.54%；持仓金额8331.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.05%；成交 持仓比为29.54%。 基本金属板块成交2097.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.50%；持仓金额3901.20亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.65%；成 交持仓比为77.09%。 贵金属板块成交4715.30亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.93%；持仓金额4805.30亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.71%；成 交持仓比为99.90%。 能源化工板块成交6987.66亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.72%；持仓金额3891.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.05%；成 交持仓比为131.17%。 农产品板块成交4256.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.51%；持仓金额5499.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.40%；成 交持仓比为62.74%。 黑色建材板块成交2161. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-17 锂矿及锂盐价格偏弱，碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行 市场分析 2025年6月16日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60000元/吨，收于59780元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价下跌0.02%。当 日成交量为218180手，持仓量为300422手，较前一交易日增加152990手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳 720元/吨。所有合约总持仓615599手，较前一交易日增加17641手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少37150手， 成交量减少，整体投机度为0.59 。当日碳酸锂仓单32043手，较上个交易日减少75手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月16日电池级碳酸锂报价6-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价5.84-5.94万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨。根据SMM调研，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心小 幅下移。从当前碳酸锂市场供需格局来看：供应端，市场可流通量级仍保持较为充足的水平；需求端，下游材料 企业采购策略维持谨慎，仅维持刚性补库需求，尚未出现规模性备库行为。在前期宏观情绪扰动逐步消化后，碳 酸锂期货价格已回归基 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Aluminum prices may face difficulties in breaking upward without unexpected positive stimuli and could return to the previous plateau after the contract rollover, while the risk of cost collapse should be watched [4] - Alumina supply is expected to remain in excess with the release of new capacity and the recovery of previously maintained capacity, despite current slow提货 issues [6] - Aluminum alloy prices have limited upside during the off - season, but cost support exists, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum - Spot prices: Yangtze River A00 aluminum was 20630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum was 20420 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20375 yuan/ton, closed at 20405 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.1%), with a trading volume of 156076 lots and an open interest of 204300 lots [2] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 45.8 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 351200 tons, down 2025 tons [2] Alumina - Spot prices: On June 16, 2025, SMM alumina prices were 3200 yuan/ton in Shanxi and Shandong, 3250 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and FOB price in Australia was 370 dollars/ton [3] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2850 yuan/ton, closed at 2852 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.73%), with a trading volume of 294017 lots and an open interest of 298925 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On June 16, 2025, Baotai's civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15400 yuan/ton, mechanical aluminum scrap was 15500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; ADC12 Baotai quote was 19600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Inventory: The total aluminum alloy inventory was 10.73 tons, down 0.41 tons week - on - week [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Aluminum - Supply: There is a risk of production cuts at Rio Tinto's electrolytic aluminum plants in Australia [4] - Demand: Consumption shows signs of weakening marginally, and the inventory drawdown has slowed [4] - Market situation: The soft squeeze may have ended, and upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may be difficult without unexpected positive factors [4] Alumina - Supply: Industry profits have recovered, with production and inventory rising due to capacity restart and new capacity output [6] - Cost: Alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and domestic imported ore prices are hard to rise despite high freight [6] Aluminum Alloy - Market: It is in the off - season, with limited price upside, but cost support exists [6] - Arbitrage: Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities with the 11 - contract becoming a peak - season contract [6] Group 5: Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [7]

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-17 原油价格并未进一步走高 黄金陷入震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，据华尔街日报，中东和欧洲的官员说，伊朗一直在紧急发出信号，表示它寻求结束敌对状态，恢复有关其 核项目的谈判，并通过阿拉伯中间人向以色列和美国发出了信息。这些官员说，在以色列猛烈的空袭中，德黑兰 对阿拉伯官员说，只要美国不加入空袭，他们愿意重返谈判桌。周末发生的地缘政治冲突数据并未祸及霍尔莫斯 海峡的运输，而原油价格也并未进一步走高，同时美联储对于降息的态度仍然偏谨慎，美元逐步企稳。故黄金价 格昨日出现回落。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-16，沪金主力合约开于 798.40元/克，收于 792.30元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.26%。当日成交量为 228842手，持仓量为 176263手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 792.68 元/克，收于 785.78 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 下降1.37%。 2025-06-16，沪银主力合约开于 8801元/千克，收于 8858元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 571364手，持仓量 412329手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,864 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). Due to the Israel-Iran conflict, two EG plants in Iran with a total capacity of 950,000 tons unexpectedly shut down, leading to an increase in EG prices on Monday. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The inventory data from different sources showed a decline, and the port inventory was expected to be stable. The supply in June in China was gradually recovering, and the overall load was not high. Overseas supply was affected by the situation in Iran. The demand decreased due to polyester production cuts [1][2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term strategy for a single position is bullish, and attention should be paid to the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 86 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The report also mentioned relevant profit data for other production methods and the overall and syngas - based operating rates of EG [1][10]. International Spread - The report presented the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It covered the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips [21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 564,000 tons (down 34,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, and the planned arrivals this week were 100,000 tons. The port inventory was expected to be stable [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the intensified Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, the crude oil price first soared and then declined, and the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly accordingly. The planned production cuts of bottle chips increased, and the polyester industry chain was under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation [1]. - Regarding the cost side, the recent oil price has risen sharply due to the intensified Middle - East conflict. If the conflict causes more damage to energy facilities or affects the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may face further upward risks; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline again. The gasoline cracking spread in the US has retracted, and the blending demand is not promising. The PX short - process plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - For PX, the PXN was 234 dollars/ton (with no change from the previous period). The PX load at home and abroad has generally increased recently, but it will decline again in July. The tight supply - demand situation needs further attention [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract was 231 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the spot processing fee was 310 yuan/ton (a 70 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The PTA load continued to increase this week, and the supply became more abundant. It is expected that the PTA spot price will oscillate following the cost side in the short term [3]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.9% (a 0.2% decrease from the previous period). The terminal orders have weakened again since late May, and the downstream operating rates have declined slightly. The polyester load has remained stable recently after a decline, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was - 26 yuan/ton (a 26 - yuan increase from the previous period). The price will remain high under the low inventory of short - fiber factories and the operation to maintain the processing margin [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 309 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip price increased following the raw materials, but the new order procurement enthusiasm of overseas customers was not high due to the high ocean freight in June. The inventory pressure of polyester bottle - chip factories has increased again. The production cuts of major factories are being implemented, and the processing fee is expected to face pressure in the short term [4]. - The trading strategy suggests that PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short term under the Israel - Iran conflict, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and further production - cut actions of polyester and the geopolitical conflict need to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East - China spot basis and the basis of 1.56D*38mm semi - dull pure - white short fibers [9][10][12]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene US - Asia spread, the spread between South Korean FOB toluene and Japanese CFR naphtha, and the PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It provides information on the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [29][32][33]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are presented [38][41][42]. Downstream Polyester Load - It shows the production and sales of filaments and short fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Also, the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments are provided [50][52][62]. PF Detailed Data - The report includes the polyester short - fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rates and production profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and the spread between raw and recycled polyester short fibers [73][81][83]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It presents the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and the price spreads between different periods of bottle chips [90][92][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, the futures price is boosted by state purchasing, but the supply - demand imbalance of more supply and less demand will continue due to weight reduction of pigs for sale and stable consumption demand. In the long run, with profits in pig farming, there's little possibility of short - term capacity adjustment, and the spot price is likely to be under pressure. The prospects of frozen pork and second - round fattening demand are not good, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will persist [2] - In the egg market, as schools are on holiday, school demand declines, while tourism and catering demand rises. There's also replenishment demand during the "618" event. However, due to high temperature and humidity, egg storage time is shortened, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Overall demand remains weak, and there's no major positive factor to boost demand in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract was 13,780 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 14.28 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.58 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.98 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 500, up 280; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 800, up 300; in Sichuan, it was LH09 + 200, up 160 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on June 16: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.83, down 0.12 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.86, down 0.14 points. The average price of pork was 20.37 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; beef was 63.45 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton was 59.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; eggs were 7.28 yuan/kg, unchanged; white - striped chicken was 17.20 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Market Analysis - The futures price is supported by state purchasing, but the weight reduction of pigs for sale is just starting, and the supply is expected to increase. With stable consumption demand, the oversupply situation will continue. There are still profits in pig farming, so there's little short - term capacity adjustment, and the spot price will likely be under pressure. The demand for frozen pork and second - round fattening won't increase significantly [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract was 3,582 yuan/500 kilograms yesterday, a change of + 26.00 yuan (+ 0.73%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.49 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.70 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.62 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD07 - 1092, up 64; in Shandong, it was JD07 - 882, up 74; in Hebei, it was JD07 - 962, up 34 [3] - On June 16, the national production - link inventory was 0.82 days, down 0.23 days from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.19 days, down 0.33 days [3] Market Analysis - School demand declines as schools are on holiday, while tourism and catering demand rises. There's also replenishment demand during the "618" event. However, due to high temperature and humidity, egg storage time is shortened, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Overall demand remains weak, and there's no major positive factor to boost demand in the short term [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]

伊朗LPG发货量有下滑迹象，关注局势发展 市场分析 1、\t6月16日地区价格：山东市场，4560—4700；东北市场，4050—4210；华北市场，4505—4650；华东市场， 4480—4750；沿江市场，4730—4880 ；西北市场，4350—4450 ；华南市场，4698—4750。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷627美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，丁烷553美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4955元/吨，涨32元/吨，丁烷4370元/吨，涨24元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷623美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷553美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4924元/吨，涨41元/吨，丁烷4370元/吨，跌15元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着伊以冲突升级，能源板块情绪走强，PG期货跟随原油等商品反弹。现货方面，各地区价格普遍上涨，但幅度 相对有限。华东民用气下游入市积极性尚可，成交氛围良好。作为中东地缘冲突的中心，伊朗LPG供应面临下行 风险，今年出口量水平在100万吨/月左右，其中80%左右 ...

地缘风险仍存，燃料油市场受到支撑 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.38%，报3276元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.28%，报3874 元/吨。 随着伊以冲突升级，原油价格走势偏强，对FU、LU单边价格形成提振，但目前局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复波 动。 燃料油日报 | 2025-06-17 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体矛盾有限，市场存在一定支撑，但也没有出现短缺的情况。随着夏季临近， 中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场短期存在支撑。其中，埃及燃料油进口延续增长态势。参考船期数据， 埃及6月份高硫燃料油进口量目前预计在65万吨，环比增加9万吨。参考去年季节性，发电终端需求还有提升空间。 此外，由于以色列天然气出口到埃及，如果其天然气田生产受损，则可能导致埃及的天然气供应进一步收紧，进 而采购更多的高硫燃料油来填补天然气的缺口。目前战事还未造成实质性的供应中断，但如果有伊朗炼厂和港口 在冲突中受到严重损坏，则其燃料油供应有从源头减少的可能，我国炼厂的原料来源或边际收紧，亚洲高硫燃料 油市场面临潜在上行风险。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，国内保税港口库存偏低，市场结构持 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-17 青岛港口库存小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13910元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨。NR主力合约12160元/吨，较前一日变动+55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13900元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13770元/吨， 较前一日变动+20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1715美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1695美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 近期市场资讯： 2025年5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计60.7万吨，较2024年同期的48.5万吨增加25.2%。 2025年1-5月 中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计347.6万吨，较2024年同期的281.4万吨增加23.5%。 据隆重众资讯了解，当前国内轮胎市场平稳推进，但整体交投一般。全钢轮胎市场整体运行无明显波动，终端需 求延续弱稳，换胎以刚需为主，且多倾向 ...