Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [4] - Sugar: Neutral [8] - Pulp: Neutral [11] 2. Core Views - Cotton: New cotton production increase expectations continue to suppress the market, and with the weak peak season in September and insufficient demand support, cotton prices still have the risk of further decline [4] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but there is cost support after continuous decline, so the short - term downside space may be limited [8] - Pulp: The current pulp fundamentals have insufficient improvement, the entire industry chain lacks positive driving forces, and short - term pulp prices may remain at the bottom and continue to fluctuate at a low level [11] 3. Summary by Industry Cotton - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract was at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline. Spot: Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [1] - Internationally, from September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 upland cotton net signings were 19,527 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week. Shipments were 31,116 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week. As of September 23, about 49% of the US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [1] - Domestically, in August 2025, China's cotton cloth exports were 563 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 14.20%. From January - August 2025, exports were 4.2 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 10.50% [2] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, the September USDA report increased global cotton production and consumption, and reduced beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [3] - Domestically, Xinjiang cottonseed has started to be purchased. The expected panic buying has not occurred. The estimated Xinjiang production is about 7.3 million tons, and the market may face pressure during the peak listing period [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the sugar 2601 contract was at 5,478 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar spot price was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Kunming's was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [5] - Internationally, it is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was 45.92 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.6 million tons, a 15% year - on - year increase [5][6] - Domestically, as of September 23, two sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started production for the 2025/26 season, and the estimated sugar production is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, slightly increasing from the previous season [6] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is increasing, and the short - term supply is strong, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. However, there is support from the ethanol price [7] - Domestically, sugar sales in August were poor, imports reached a new high, and beet sugar has started to be crushed, so the short - term supply is sufficient [7] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the pulp 2511 contract was at 5,016 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline. Spot: The average spot price of "Yinxing" softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,610 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the average price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [9] - Internationally, in August 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase, and inventory was 707,800 tons, an 11.34% year - on - year increase [9] - Domestically, the total pulp inventory in one region and eight ports decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, with an expanded decline [9] - **Market Analysis** - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have some positive impact, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the global supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port inventory remains high [10] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption has been weak. Domestic demand is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. Although there is new paper production capacity, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' purchasing is cautious [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas copper mine supply disturbances continue, the supply - demand balance remains fragile. Although there is a situation of "peak season not prosperous" on the demand side, it is not overly pessimistic. With the restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the background of monetary easing combined with tight supply - demand fundamentals is expected to keep copper prices in a strong and volatile state. Under this supply disturbance, copper prices are expected to hit the previous high, with the range between 84,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Copper Futures Market Performance - On the night of September 25, 2025, copper futures rose sharply. The main contract, Shanghai Copper 2511, opened at 81,000 yuan/ton and closed at 82,610 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 3.28%. The trading volume was about 218,000 lots, with a daily increase of about 45,000 lots [3] Impact of the Accident on Production - The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia was caused by a mudslide, which led to the suspension of mining. The accident occurred in the "PB1C" area of the five production blocks of GBC, but damaged key infrastructure in other production areas. The GBC ore body accounted for 50% of PTFI's proven reserves at the end of 2024, and in 2024, the daily output of copper concentrate in the GBC mining area accounted for 64% of the overall output of the Grasberg mine. In Q3 2025, copper sales are expected to decline by 4% and gold by 6% compared with the July forecast. In Q4 2025, the original forecast for copper sales was 445 million pounds (about 202,000 tons). In 2026, the overall copper production may be reduced by 35% compared with the pre - accident forecast, with an estimated reduction of about 270,000 tons [3] Mine Restart Schedule - In Q4 2025, the Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mining areas among the three producing areas of the Grasberg mine may resume production. In H1 2026, the GBC mining area plans to resume production in stages (starting with the PB2 and PB3 blocks). In H2 2026, the PB1S block will resume production. In 2027, the PB1C block and the remaining areas will resume production, aiming to restore pre - accident production capacity. The entire resumption process will last about 1.5 - 2 years [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG futures price rebounded, and the spot basis weakened significantly. The demand recovery is slow, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with limited upside potential. In September, the EG balance sheet has little imbalance, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low. However, due to the early output of Yulong, the EG inventory accumulation time is advanced, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,246 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 63 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 287 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous day. The domestic ethylene glycol load remained stable at a high level [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The current demand recovery is slow, with insufficient order connection. The polyester load is expected to remain stable, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released on Mondays, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 46.7 tons, up 0.2 tons from the previous week. According to Longzhong data released on Thursdays, the inventory was 40.0 tons, up 1.7 tons from the previous week. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and cautiously bearish in the medium term [5] Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand of the polyester industry chain has improved, leading to a rebound in the market. However, there are still various factors affecting the industry, including cost - side fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances in different segments, and uncertain future demand [1][2][3][4][5] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract price, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][16] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - This section includes PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Presents the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][46] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and inventory days of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][61] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventory, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [73][79][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures rose 1.3% to 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.56% to 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has significantly declined, but there is still room for growth in the future. The upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited, and it is currently in a relatively balanced state [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly recently, but the overall supply pressure is limited. The trend of substitution of low - sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.3% at 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.56% at 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The net export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East in September is expected to be 1.21 million tons, a decrease of 1.21 million tons compared with August. However, there is still room for supply growth in the Middle East in the future, and the upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly due to the shutdown of the RFCC unit of the Nigerian Dangote refinery. However, the overall supply pressure is limited, and the resistance above the market is still large [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices, swap near - month contracts, and month - to - month spreads of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of SHFE fuel oil and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts [3] Researcher Information - The researchers are Pan Xiang and Kang Yuanning, with practice qualification numbers F3023104 and F3049404 respectively, and investment consulting numbers Z0013188 and Z0015842 respectively [37]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade within a range. Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The agreement between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish regional government to resume northern crude oil exports this Saturday will add 200,000 - 300,000 barrels per day to the Ceyhan terminal, with a historical peak of around 400,000 barrels per day. This will ease the over-lightening of European refinery raw materials and increase market supply. OPEC's phased lifting of the second layer of production cuts means Iraq's resumption of exports won't cause overproduction pressure. Future focus is on the loading situation at the Ceyhan terminal [2] 3. Market News and Key Data - NYMEX November light crude futures fell 1 cent to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.02% decline; ICE November Brent crude futures rose 11 cents to $69.42 per barrel, a 0.16% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 0.45% to 491 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said on Thursday that Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the current gasoline export ban. After Ukraine stepped up drone attacks on many refineries, several Russian regions are facing shortages of certain grades of fuel [1] - Iraqi Prime Minister announced an agreement to export oil from Kurdish oil fields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline [1] - Indian officials told the Trump administration that if Indian refiners are to significantly cut Russian oil imports, the US must allow them to buy crude from sanctioned Iran and Venezuela. Cutting off supplies from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela simultaneously could lead to a global oil price spike [1] - US President Trump urged Turkish President Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil and hinted at lifting the ban on Turkey's purchase of US F - 35 fighter jets. In 2024, Turkey was Russia's fourth - largest trading partner with bilateral trade of $52 billion, mainly in fossil fuels and electronics [1] 4. Strategy - Short-term: Oil prices will trade in a range. Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] 5. Risks - Downside risks: US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the price fluctuations of the black and infrastructure upstream industries, and presents the latest situation of the production and service industries through mid - level event overviews, as well as the operating conditions of the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The third fifth meeting of the Copper Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association was held on September 24 in Xiongan New Area, with the low copper concentrate processing fees due to "involution - style" competition being the most prominent issue. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on September 25, emphasizing stable supply of "vegetable basket" products, winter - spring vegetable production, and regulation of pig production capacity [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Education and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Procurement and Acceptance Management of Bulk Food Ingredients in School Canteens" to improve campus food safety [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The prices of glass (black) and cement (infrastructure) have rebounded [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The polyester industry's operating rate is at a three - year median, power plant coal consumption is at a median level, and the asphalt operating rate is rising [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly declined, and the number of domestic flights is at a median level [3]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 9/25 | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.06% | | | Spot price: Egg | 9/25 | 7.8 yuan/kg | - 3.13% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9/25 | 9188.0 yuan/ton | - 1.90% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 9/25 | 15106.7 yuan/ton | - 1.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 9/25 | 19.4 yuan/kg | - 0.56% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 9/25 | 82435.0 yuan/ton | 2.99% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 9/25 | 21864.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 20783.3 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 9/25 | 124400.0 yuan/ton | 1.18% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 17031.3 yuan/ton | - 0.33% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 9/25 | 3204.5 yuan/ton | 2.02% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 9/25 | 807.9 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 9/25 | 3385.0 yuan/ton | 1.27% | | | Spot price: Glass | 9/25 | 15.1 yuan/square meter | 5.60% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 9/25 | 14958.3 yuan/ton | 0.73% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 9/25 | 790.2 | - 0.39% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 9/25 | 65.0 dollars/barrel | 2.03% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 9/25 | 68.5 dollars/barrel | 1.48% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 9/25 | 3808.0 yuan/ton | - 1.19% | | | Coal price: Coal | 9/25 | 790.0 yuan/ton | 1.15% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | 9/25 | 4635.0 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | 9/25 | 7346.7 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Urea | 9/25 | 1647.5 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 9/25 | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | 9/25 | 134.8 | 2.53% | | | Building materials composite index | 9/25 | 114.4 points | 0.33% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 9/25 | 91.7 points | - 0.09% | [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on September 25, 2025, including option volume, PCR, and VIX, which helps investors understand the market conditions and sentiment of index options [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Option Volume - On September 25, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1.1772 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.2981 million contracts; the trading volume of China Securities 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2.273 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.1449 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1.9582 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 0.0543 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 index options was 0.1098 million contracts; the total trading volume of China Securities 1000 options was 0.2291 million contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on September 25, 2025, such as the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 0.8838 million contracts [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.59, with a month - on - month change of - 0.09; the position PCR was reported at 0.79, with a month - on - month change of + 0.01. Similar data were provided for other types of options [2] - The table shows the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, position PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options on September 25, 2025 [28] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 16.53%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.15%. Similar data were provided for other types of options [3] - The table shows the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options on September 25, 2025 [42]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 有色金属普涨，沪镍价格跟随上行 镍品种 2025-09-25日沪镍主力合约2510开于121900元/吨，收于122990元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.08%，当日成交量为 177030（+69275）手，持仓量为99642（14116）手。 期货方面：由于昨日铜矿事件带动，有色金属价格普遍上涨。沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘后呈震荡上行趋势，日盘开 盘后涨势延续，最高至123550元/吨，后维持高位震荡态势，截至收盘较上一日结算价上涨1310元/吨。综合来看， 流动性预期为有色金属价格提供底部支撑， 镍矿方面：交投氛围尚可，价格持稳运行。菲律宾CNC矿山1.3%FOB31，菲律宾至印尼1.4%镍矿成交分别落地 CIF50.5和CIF51.5。菲律宾方面，矿山报价坚挺，新台风"博罗依"预计将对出货造成影响。下游铁厂亏损仍存，镍 矿采购维持谨慎压价心理，当前未有明显节前补库操作。印尼方面，镍矿市场供应持续宽松格局。10月(一期)内贸 基准价预计上涨，内贸升水方面，易涨难跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格125500元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨1800元/吨。现货价格走 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 节前备货叠加贸易商惜售，现货贴水继续修复 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20770元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨，较 上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价20800元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至30元/吨；佛山A00 铝价录20710元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-60元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-25日沪铝主力合约开于20745元/吨，收于20765元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，最 高价达20835元/吨，最低价达到20705元/吨。全天交易日成交146073手，全天交易日持仓220640手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-25，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.7万吨，较上一期变化-2.1吨，仓单库存64408 吨，较上一交易日变化-3328吨，LME铝库存515925吨，较上一交易日变化-1225吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2945元/吨，山东价格录得2905元/吨，河南价格录得 2980元/ ...