苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-17 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费162美元/吨（-4美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费146美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差56.8美元/吨（-8.9美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-45元/吨（-5元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差331元/吨（-64元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润222元/吨（-104元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（-13100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率73.8%（+1.5%）。 周初港口库存再度下滑 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，伊朗地缘冲突加剧推升原油价格，推动纯苯及苯乙烯的成本抬 升，关注地缘冲突进展及油价后续波动。而纯苯方面，国产开工率进一步上升，下游CPL开工进一步下降，拖累纯 苯需求，纯苯到港压力仍存，纯苯港口库存再度延续上升，纯苯加工费偏弱。苯乙烯自身，到港节奏放缓，港口 库存再度小幅下降，港口库存绝对量仍有限，但中长期则在苯乙烯开工逐步回 ...

大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4242.00元/吨，较前日变化+1.00元/吨，幅度+0.02%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-62，较前日变化-1，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周五，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘上涨，其中基准期约收高2.5%，因为美国环保署提 出的生物燃料掺混要求高于行业预期。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨21美分到28美分不等，其中7月期约上涨27.50美分， 报收1069.75美分/蒲;8月期约上涨28美分，报收1069美分/蒲;11月期约上涨27.50美分，报收1054.75美分/蒲。6月16 日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国 标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦 市场国标一等蛋白41 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the intensification of international conflicts and changes in supply - demand factors, the prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are oscillating strongly. The macro - level international conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the prices of vegetable oils. On the supply - demand side, changes in the US biodiesel policy, the unexpected inventory build - up in the MPOB report, and the increase in Indian imports have all contributed to the price increase of oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8436.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 296 yuan or 3.64%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7960.00 yuan/ton, up 174.00 yuan or 2.23%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9505.00 yuan/ton, up 195.00 yuan or 2.09% [1] - Spot prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8700.00 yuan/ton, up 220.00 yuan or 2.59%. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8200.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.99%. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan or 2.10% [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 84.7 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.06 million tons or 9.66% [2] - As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 40.96 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons or 11.41% [2] - As of June 16, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 590.592 million tons, a decrease of 5.088 million tons from June 9 [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Macro - level**: The Israeli air - strike on Iranian targets last Thursday led to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. International oil prices soared by more than 9%, driving up the prices of vegetable oils. If the conflict spreads to key energy infrastructure or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will have a major impact on the global energy supply chain [3] - **Supply - demand level**: - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending of 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel in 2026, higher than the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 and exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil prices [3] - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report showed less - than - expected inventory build - up. India's reduction of import tariffs on crude palm oil improved import profits, increased purchases, and boosted international market prices. India's edible oil inventory is at a multi - year low, and the relatively low price of international palm oil has prompted Indian refineries to increase purchases [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: The strong operation of ICE rapeseed has increased the cost of imported rapeseed in China. With the decline in crushing profits, domestic oil mills are adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Rapeseed arrivals are expected to decrease in the coming months, and the current low inventory of rapeseed has led to low overall operation rates of oil mills, resulting in a firm spot price of rapeseed oil [3]

伊朗甲醇装置停车，甲醇价格再度冲高 甲醇日报 | 2025-06-17 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润698元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1993元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差129元/吨（-73），内蒙南线1890元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（+115）， 鲁南基差116元/吨（+40）；河南2300元/吨（+175），河南基差36元/吨（+100）；河北2130元/吨（+25），河北基差-74 元/吨（-50）。隆众内地工厂库存379120吨（+8630），西北工厂库存237100吨（+2600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单302090 吨（+39910），西北工厂待发订单167000吨（+17000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2585元/吨（+95），太仓基差121元/吨（+20），CFR中国285美元/吨（+13），华东进口价差-15 元/吨（+0），常州甲醇2520元/吨；广东甲醇2480元/吨（+70），广东基差16元/吨（-5）。隆众港口总库存652200吨 （+71000），江苏港口库存312000吨（+3 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-17 精炼镍升贴水维稳，盘面底部震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-16日沪镍主力合约2507开于119800元/吨，收于119690元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.28%，当日成交量 为98243手，持仓量为79723手。 沪镍主力合约2507全天窄幅震荡，日线收十字小阴线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有小幅增加，持仓量 有小幅减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积开始缓慢扩大，短周期内或许会步入弱势震荡的阶段。60 分钟线在6月6日的123000附近出现顶背离现象，继续关注上方122000-123000短期一线压力位置，下方等待破位 119000的底背离出现。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调875元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的 下调。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，但市场升贴水较平稳，下方仍有支撑，精炼镍现货成交整体表现一般， 升贴水对比上个交易日有小幅下调，升贴水近期处于相对平稳的态势。其中金川镍升水变化0元/吨至2500元/吨， 进口镍升水变化-150元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为223 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the futures price showed a weak oscillation, and the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals changed little, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [1][3] - For polysilicon, the futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals were weak, and the market might maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term due to improved commodity sentiment and more capital games [4][6] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Summary Market Analysis - On June 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The 2507 main contract opened at 7305 yuan/ton and closed at 7370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.41% from the previous settlement price. The 2505 main contract held 323363 positions at the close, and on June 17, the total number of warehouse receipts was 56823, a decrease of 1097 from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 12, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 57.2 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. Among them, the general social warehouse was 13.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse was 43.9 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons [1] Consumption End - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 10400 - 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market's transaction center continued to decline, and the mainstream transaction price was about 10700 yuan/ton. The lowest transaction price in Shandong was below 10500 yuan/ton. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer enterprises was expected to approach 70%, and the DMC transaction center was expected to decline slightly [2] Strategy - The industrial silicon futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals changed little, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. The strategy was to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises could sell hedging at high prices [3] Group 4: Polysilicon Summary Market Analysis - On June 16, 2025, the polysilicon futures 2507 main contract oscillated. It opened at 33765 yuan/ton and closed at 34320 yuan/ton, a 1.93% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 51277 positions, and the trading volume was 62835 [4] - The polysilicon spot price was stable. The re - feeding material was priced at 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material at 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material at 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon at 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material at 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon factory inventory increased slightly, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50, a 2.23% change, silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW, a - 3.40% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 23800.00 tons, an 8.00% change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.10GW, a 0.40% change [4][5] - In terms of silicon wafers, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.06 yuan/piece [5] - In terms of battery cells, the high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [5] Strategy - The polysilicon futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals were weak, and the market might maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term. The strategy was neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - In May 2025, the overall economy stabilized. Industrial production maintained steady growth, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.3% year-on-year. However, Sino-US tariff friction pressured downstream and midstream enterprises. The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the CPI slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. Investment growth slowed marginally, while consumption rebounded, and the real estate sector remained under pressure [3][4]. - Domestic demand showed resilience, but external uncertainties increased. The overall domestic demand in May demonstrated resilience, with consumption reaching a new high for the year. High-end manufacturing led industrial upgrading, and the optimization of the foreign trade structure hedged external risks. However, global differentiation intensified, and the impact of the Israel-Palestine war on upstream raw materials needed further attention [5]. Summary by Directory Growth: Steady Growth - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year. The proportion of the tertiary industry increased to 61.2%. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries maintaining rapid growth. However, Sino-US tariff conflicts affected the growth of private, foreign, and state-owned enterprises [10][11]. Inflation: Continued Pressure - In May 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, mainly due to increased international input pressure and loose supply and demand of energy and raw materials. The CPI slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with significant structural differentiation. Energy and food prices declined, while service prices increased. Future risks included international commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical risks [22][45]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to May 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a marginal slowdown in growth. Manufacturing investment maintained rapid growth, especially in high - tech fields. Infrastructure investment growth slowed, and private investment excluding real estate showed vitality in the service industry [60]. Production: Intensified Differentiation - From January to May 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with significant industry differentiation. High - tech industries such as the automobile and computer equipment manufacturing industries had high capacity utilization rates, while the upstream raw material industry was weak, and exports were under pressure [65]. Consumption: Policy Effectiveness - In May 2025, the consumer market rebounded strongly, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4132.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The "trade - in" policy was effective, and service consumption and new consumption became new drivers. However, consumer confidence needed to be strengthened [78]. Real Estate: Weak and Differentiated - The real estate market continued its weak recovery and deep differentiation. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72. Real estate investment decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, and the sales side showed regional differentiation and year-on-year improvement. Policy - driven market structure optimization was underway, but real estate enterprises still faced financial pressure [89]. Appendix - In May 2025, the national economy ran smoothly under pressure, with stable growth in production and demand, stable employment, and the growth of new drivers. Industrial production, service industry growth, market sales, fixed - asset investment, foreign trade, employment, and consumer prices all showed certain characteristics [112].

研究院 量化组 研究员 0755-23887993 liyizi@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03105861 投资咨询号：Z0021365 李光庭 0755-23887993 liguangting@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108562 投资咨询号：Z0021506 联系人 黄煦然 0755-23887993 huangxuran@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0310959 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|量化专题报告 2025-06-16 国债期货席位风格分化下的信号重构 摘要 席位数据在机构主导的国债期货市场中具备重要研究价值，席位数据不仅能帮助我们了 解市场情绪，同时也能在实际交易策略中帮助我们进行择时。而在传统席位策略如蜘蛛 网策略失效的现状下，我们在对其失效原因展开研究分析的基础上，还提出系统性解决 方案并得出以下核心结论： 高天越 研究表明，通过精细化席位分类与信号重构，席位数据可成为国债期货交易的有效因子。 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 0755-23887993 gaotianyue@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3055799 ...

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-16 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-06-13，上证50ETF期权成交量为93.61万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为88.73万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为152.84万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为7.64万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为106.85万张；上证50股指期权成交量为3.19万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为7.75万张；中证1000期权总成交量为21.54万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报1.03，环比变动为+0.18；持仓量PCR报0.89，环比变动为-0.07； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.92，环比变动为+0.20；持仓量PCR报0.83，环比变动为-0.05； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.05，环比变动为+0.29；持仓量PCR报1.16，环比变动为-0.11 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.03 ，环比变动为-0.09；持仓量PCR报0.87；环比变动为-0.03； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报1.17，环比变动为+0.22 ；持仓量P ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-16 市场流动性概况 2025-06-13，股指板块成交4933.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.44%；持仓金额10027.00亿元，较上一交易日变动 +3.01%；成交持仓比为48.88%。 国债板块成交2770.03亿元，较上一交易日变动+14.89%；持仓金额8244.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.44%；成交 持仓比为34.34%。 基本金属板块成交2481.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+19.16%；持仓金额3926.61亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.61%； 成交持仓比为85.91%。 贵金属板块成交6365.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+32.96%；持仓金额4771.44亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.97%；成 交持仓比为140.74%。 能源化工板块成交7571.95亿元，较上一交易日变动+80.92%；持仓金额3851.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.15%； 成交持仓比为158.63%。 农产品板块成交3474.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+33.29%；持仓金额5371.20亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.56%；成 交持仓比为54.00%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...