1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. International cotton prices lack a clear driving force and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. In China, inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market may still be in an increasing production cycle. Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, which will suppress raw sugar futures prices. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, with short - term range - bound fluctuations, a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, and increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] - **Pulp**: The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp than coniferous pulp. The demand side is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9][10] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,089 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,191 yuan/ton, a change of + 13 yuan/ton. In Brazil, as of August 1, the cotton picking progress in Mato Grosso was 18.3%, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year. On August 6, the local cotton price was 73.07 cents/pound, up 1.1% from the previous day and down 3.8% from the high in early July [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather story is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season may be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton sown area is higher than expected, the drought has improved, and export contracts are weak, so the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, imports in the third quarter are expected to be low, and there is an expectation of tight inventory before the new cotton is listed. However, the new cotton is growing well with a strong production - increasing expectation, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Considering the sufficient supply of the global cotton market in the new year, there is no continuous upward driving force in the long - term industrial end. Zhengzhou cotton should be treated with a pressure - bearing and volatile mindset in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton, a change of - 16 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 80, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.5777 million tons, a 0.69% increase from the previous week [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the first half of July accelerated, and the sugar - making ratio was at a historical high. The supply outlook is improving, and raw sugar is in a weak shock. The new sugar production estimates in India and Thailand are optimistic, and the global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. In the third quarter, the peak crushing season in Brazil will suppress raw sugar futures prices. Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is low. However, the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, with a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but there is an increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be treated with a bearish mindset [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,186 yuan/ton, a change of + 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The import pulp spot market price was stable [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory removal is slow, and there is still supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. In China, affected by the off - season, the demand is weak, the finished paper inventory pressure is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and there is no positive driving force in the industrial chain. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end oil market will shift from strong to weak in the second half of the year, unless the US increases sanctions on Russia. PX supply is expected to increase, and the balance sheet will change from de - stocking to balance. PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The polyester load is currently firm, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly and awaits the arrival of the seasonal peak season [2][3] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, pay attention to the cost - end crude oil and macro - sentiment changes. Consider shorting the PTA processing fee at high levels and going long on the PR processing fee at low levels. Also, conduct reverse arbitrage on PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 20 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +1 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 137 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 375 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 263 US dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of +7.50 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The PTA spot processing fee is 137 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 375 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton) [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not elaborated in the text Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The domestic PX load will gradually recover, and with the commissioning of MX, the supply is abundant. The PTA load situation in China, South Korea, and Taiwan is presented in relevant figures, but specific data are not described in the text [2][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts will lead to abundant liquid supply [2] Downstream Polyester Load - As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland region is around 88.8%. The polyester start - up rate is 88.1% (with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). The terminal weaving concentrated on raw - material replenishment in late July, and the filament inventory pressure decreased significantly. The filament and staple - fiber loads rebounded slightly, and the polyester load remains firm in the short term [1][3] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 91 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month increase of 12 yuan/ton). The PF demand - side orders are weak, the inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold positions is low under the drag of downstream production cuts [3] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 410 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 32 yuan/ton). After the implementation of the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers, it is expected that the load will remain stable in the short term, and the bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation after repair [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] - Option strategy: Sell put options [3] Core View of the Report - The lead price may temporarily fluctuate strongly due to smelters holding back supply. After a long - term consolidation, the spot trading of lead is gradually improving, and there is a chance that the peak - season demand will be realized [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Content Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On August 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.88/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] - **Futures**: On August 7, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 32,431 lots, down 16,214 lots, and the position was 62,019 lots, down 3,000 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.15% from the afternoon closing price [1] - **Inventory**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, down 800 tons from last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 269,400 tons, up 800 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Supply and Demand - Lead prices strengthened, leading to an increase in the enthusiasm of holders to sell. Some smelters held back supply and quoted firm prices, while downstream buyers were cautious and the market trading was generally light [2] Strategy - **Absolute price**: Temporarily use buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range recommended between 16,600 yuan/ton and 16,650 yuan/ton [3] - **Option strategy**: Sell put options [3]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Views - The over - expected US initial jobless claims data, combined with the weak domestic economic growth and employment pressure, has intensified market concerns about the US economy, leading to more bets on the Fed's dovish turn. The Fed's personnel changes have also strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's easing. As a result, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than market expectations. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, exceeding market expectations. The cooling trend of labor data continues, and the market is trading on the loose expectation, which strongly supports the precious metal prices. Trump has selected Stephen Milan to replace a Fed governor, and the US Treasury Secretary has started the interview process for the new Fed chairman. There are also rumors about potential candidates. Geopolitically, Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.28 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, a change of 0.17% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 785.44 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,163.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,258.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 326,856 lots, and the open interest was 378,070 lots. The night - session closed at 9,241 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 7, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.23%, up 1 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.51%, down 2 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 7, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,107 lots, and the short positions decreased by 180 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 234,653 lots, a decrease of 2.03% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 958 lots, and the short positions decreased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts was 471,384 lots, a decrease of 11.49% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 959.09 tons, up 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.80 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 7, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 9.88 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 646.37 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.79, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.01, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On August 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 31,738 kg, an increase of 8.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 252,338 kg, an increase of 8.96% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,114 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 2,040 kg [7]. Outlook - Gold: The price of gold is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 775 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram. - Silver: The price of silver is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8,900 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: On hold [8]

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] Core View - The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season, but there are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory shows signs of peaking. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season. The long - term supply is limited while consumption grows steadily. Alumina has a north - south difference in the spot market, with the south strong and the north weak. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating. Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and its price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,580 yuan/ton, and the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, also with a change of 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract on August 7, 2025, was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,725 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 564,000 tons, with no change from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, an increase of 1,575 tons [2] Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,315 yuan/ton, and in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 375 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main alumina contract on August 7, 2025, was 3,254 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,291 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,191 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - Profit - **Price**: On August 7, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,700 yuan/ton, also with a change of 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4] - **Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,065 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 165 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season. There are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods may have peaked. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season [6] - **Alumina**: The spot market shows a pattern of strong south and weak north. The warehouse receipt risk is basically released. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is rated neutral, alumina is cautiously bearish, and aluminum alloy is neutral [10] - **Arbitrage**: Long the Shanghai aluminum calendar spread and long AD11 while short AL11 [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the apple industry is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the red date industry is neutral to bullish [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the apple market, the spot market is dull, the出库 of old - stored Fuji apples is average, and the substitution effect of competing fruits is strengthening. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic, and the overall sales in the distribution area are slow. The inventory of apples is at a low level in the same period in the past five years, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down compared with the same period last year [2][3] - For the red date market, there are differences in the views on the new - season jujube production. The inventory in the distribution area is at a high level in recent years, and the price of high - quality goods has risen due to the transfer of goods and downstream restocking demand [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,940 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The spot market is dull, the出库 of old - stored Fuji is average, with many deals at negotiated prices. The supply in the western producing areas is limited, and spot merchants mainly ship their own inventory. In Shandong, the number of merchants is small, and they are cautious in purchasing, mainly picking and bargaining. The overall出库 speed is slow, and the low - priced striped red apples are the main ones for sales. The demand in the distribution area is poor, and the impact of seasonal fruits is still obvious [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The trading volume of early - maturing apples increased, but the price was a bit chaotic. The overall sales speed in the distribution area was slow, and the sales of different grades were differentiated. The trading of stored apples was still concentrated in Shandong. The de - stocking speed of stored Fuji apples in the production and distribution areas last week was still slow, and the price was gradually polarized. The substitution effect of competing fruits has strengthened, and the sales of early - maturing apples showed a trend of high opening and low closing [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. If the terminal consumption remains weak and early - maturing Gala apples are listed, it is not conducive to the de - stocking of stored apples, and the spot price is likely to remain stable and weak [4] Red Date Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,115 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton or 1.23% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In the main producing areas of Xinjiang grey jujubes, the jujube trees are in the growth period, and jujube farmers are actively managing the orchards. The fruit - setting of the first - crop flowers in some orchards was average. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived, and the merchants purchased according to their needs, with a transaction volume of 20% - 30%. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 2 trucks of jujubes arrived, and the price was stable, but the number of merchants was small due to the weather [6][7] Market Analysis - The red date futures rose yesterday and reached the contract high during the session. The reduction in production in the producing areas was less than expected, and there were differences in the views on the new - season jujube production. The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The inventory in the distribution area is at a high level in recent years, and the price of high - quality goods has risen due to the transfer of goods and downstream restocking demand [8] Strategy - A neutral - to - bullish strategy is recommended. The news from the producing areas has a great impact on the futures market. Given the expectation of production decline and the improvement in spot transactions, the market may run strongly in the future, and the growth of new - season red dates needs to be closely monitored [9]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The logistics and transportation industry maintains a growth trend. In the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and Central Asia increased by 9.4%, 3.9%, 17.2%, and 16.3% respectively [1]. - International oil prices dropped significantly compared to the previous day, and egg prices declined [2]. - The PTA operating rate decreased [3]. - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities decreased seasonally and are at a near - three - year low. The box office of popular summer movies increased [3]. Group 2: Industry Credit Spreads - The industry credit spreads of various sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, mining, chemical, and others showed different trends. For example, the industry credit spread of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery decreased from 85.16 last year to 45.21 this week [47]. Group 3: Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various products in different industries showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2324.3 yuan/ton on August 7, a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.4 dollars/barrel on August 7, a year - on - year decrease of 8.07% [48].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy for asphalt is rated as "oscillating weakly," while no rating is provided for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation is easing, the cost - side support for asphalt continues to weaken. If oil prices fall continuously in the future, the asphalt market price will also decline further. The supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak, inventory is low, and there is no significant signal of inventory accumulation. The upward drive from the fundamentals is limited [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On August 7, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,528 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 211,556 lots, a net increase of 712 lots, and the trading volume was 155,921 lots, an increase of 21,495 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,550 - 3,970 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,580 - 3,630 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in the Sichuan - Chongqing market continued to fall, while that in the North China market rose slightly, and prices in other regions remained stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical plants has led to continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in significant future supply - side pressure. The current maintenance season has temporarily offset the pressure of new capacity expansion. The propane price is weak, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with weak demand. The inventory of polyolefins in the middle and upper reaches is slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year, and the short - term fundamentals remain weak [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,297 yuan/ton (- 24), PP main contract at 7,075 yuan/ton (- 3). LL North China spot was 7,210 yuan/ton (- 20), LL East China spot 7,280 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot 7,040 yuan/ton (- 10). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (+ 4), LL East China basis - 17 yuan/ton (+ 24), PP East China basis - 35 yuan/ton (- 7) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 84.1% (+ 3.0%), PP operating rate 77.3% (+ 0.4%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 348.6 yuan/ton (+ 56.1), PP oil - based production profit - 121.4 yuan/ton (+ 56.1), PDH - based PP production profit 187.7 yuan/ton (- 115.0) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 74.0 yuan/ton (- 2.2), PP import profit - 498.5 yuan/ton (+ 7.7), PP export profit 29.3 US dollars/ton (- 1.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+ 0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 48.7% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 41.1% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 60.8% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The new production capacity is continuously released, and the future supply - side pressure is large. The maintenance season temporarily offsets the pressure. The propane price is weak, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with weak performance. The inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high year - on - year, and the short - term fundamentals are weak [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The demand side shows that the global visible copper inventory has increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. In the short term, the macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, the domestic anti - involution meeting's stance on copper supply constraints can still be expected, and the probability of a significant weakening of demand is low. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 7, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,460 yuan/ton, a 0.23% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,420 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a stable - to - strong trend. The spot price was at a premium of 70 - 150 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 110 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The trading range was 78,410 - 78,590 yuan/ton. The market supply was structurally tight, with a decrease in domestic supply. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the spot premium is expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - Macro: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than expected. The number of continued jobless claims increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021. The market is trading on easing expectations. There are personnel changes in the Fed. Geopolitically, Russia and the US are preparing for a summit. Overall, the data and personnel changes are fueling easing expectations, which may support copper prices [3] Mining End - Jubilee metals' Zambian copper investment portfolio has made significant progress, and it has all the assets needed for its copper expansion strategy. It has built a diversified platform with three pillars in Zambia [4] Smelting and Imports - In July 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, increasing for two consecutive months and up 9.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.113 million tons, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. The imports of copper concentrates in July were 2.56 million tons, an 8.9% increase from June, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 17.314 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase [4] Consumption - Wood Mackenzie's Charles Coope pointed out that copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. By 2035, about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity will be needed to meet the demand [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,275 tons to 156,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 201 tons to 20,145 tons. On August 7, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,000 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, with a recommended buy - on - dips hedging strategy and a buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, and arbitrage from August 8, 2025, compared with previous periods, including prices of different copper types, inventory in different markets, and arbitrage spreads [25][26][27]