Report Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Institution: Huatai Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On Hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences regarding the December rate cut, which may create short-term negative sentiment for both gold and silver prices. As a result, both metals are expected to trade in a range-bound pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold is projected to fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram, while the Ag2602 contract for silver is expected to move between 11,700 yuan/kilogram and 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis Fed Meeting Minutes and Employment Data - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed severe differences among policymakers during the rate cut decision last month, and the pro-rate cut camp did not have an absolute numerical advantage. There was almost unanimous agreement to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance sheet reduction. Some members were concerned about the risk of a disorderly stock market decline. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the non-farm payroll data into the November report, which is scheduled for December 16 [1]. Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (Au) main contract opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 937.00 yuan/gram, a 2.01% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 941.98 yuan/gram and closed at 935.42 yuan/gram, a 0.17% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver (Ag) main contract opened at 11,760.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,148.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.84% change from the previous day's close. The trading volume was 1,360,286 lots, and the open interest was 340,206 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 7,633 yuan/kilogram and closed at 7,644 yuan/kilogram, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On November 19, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, a -0.01% change from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.54%, a 0.01% change from the previous day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 19, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,586 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,549 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts the previous day was 486,709 lots, a 9.18% change from the previous day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 13,646 lots, and short positions increased by 11,943 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts the previous day was 1,943,912 lots, a 10.55% change from the previous day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,041.43 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,218 tons [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On November 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -11.67 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,350.29 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 77.13, a -1.76% change from the previous day, while the ratio in the overseas market was 80.34, a 0.46% change from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - On November 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 62,688 kilograms, a 4.93% change from the previous day. The trading volume of silver was 785,682 kilograms, a 26.08% change from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kilograms [7].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 铝期货方面：2025-11-19日沪铝主力合约开于21485元/吨，收于21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化25元/吨，最 高价达21620元/吨，最低价达到21435元/吨。全天交易日成交202981手，全天交易日持仓347833手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.6万吨，较上一期变化2.5万吨，仓单库存69484 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存546075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-19SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得321美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-19氧化铝主力合约开于2776元/吨，收于2740元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-53 元/吨，变化幅度-1.90%，最高价达到2794元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交302092手，全天交易日 持仓426124手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The lithium carbonate futures market showed an increase in positions and prices, driven by inventory reduction and optimistic consumption expectations. However, with the potential resumption of mining production, attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mining resumes, inventory may shift from reduction to accumulation. Currently, the market is highly volatile, and the downstream's acceptance of spot prices is limited, so the risk of further chasing high prices is relatively large [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 93,800 yuan/ton and closed at 99,300 yuan/ton, with a 4.97% change in the closing price compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots, and the open interest was 503,132 lots, an increase from the previous trading day's 484,357 lots. The current basis was -10,880 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,766 lots, a change of 155 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,400 - 92,400 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 - 88,400 yuan/ton, a change of 1,450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,200 US dollars/ton, a change of 60 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The lithium carbonate futures price reached 100,000 yuan/ton, with positive bullish sentiment on the disk [2]. - On November 19, Liontown held a lithium spodumene concentrate auction. The auction item was 10,000 wet tons of 5.2% lithium spodumene, and the final transaction price was CIF SC6 1,254 US dollars/dry ton, with the goods expected to be shipped in the first half of January 2026 [3]. - As of the end of October 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) was 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5%, with a total rated power of 20.3 billion kilowatts and an average power of about 44.69 kilowatts; the number of private charging facilities (guns) was 14.112 million, a year - on - year increase of 59.4%, and the reported power consumption capacity of private charging facilities reached 124 million kVA [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of the lithium spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the same level as in October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [2]. - On the demand side, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market grew rapidly, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight. The production schedules of battery cells and cathode materials continued to improve in November, and it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to show inventory reduction in November [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of mining production, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].

化工日报 | 2025-11-20 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15440元/吨，较前一日变动+145元/吨；NR主力合约12480元/吨，较前一日变动+135 元/吨；BR主力合约10705元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前 一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1760美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10450元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比 ...

烧碱山东江苏累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4492元/吨（-28）；华东基差-32元/吨（+8）;华南基差18元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4510元/吨（-30）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-20 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存40.22万吨（-1.26）；片碱工厂库存3.02万吨（+0.12）；烧碱开工率84.10%（-0.70%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率85.37%（+0.12%）；印染华东开工率66.55%（-1.51%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.50%（-0.10%）。 市场分析 PVC： PVC单边震荡偏弱。供应端本周有1套装置计划检修，多数当前检修恢复，预计供应量回升，新投产能逐步量产： 渤化9月20日已满产；甘肃耀望与浙江嘉化试车后低负荷运行，随着近期新投产装置的增加，PVC供应端仍呈现充 裕格局。需求端下游开工下降，低价采购好转，但整体采购情绪一般。出口侧印度BIS认证取消，近期市场对反倾 销税取消预期增加，出口仍以价换量，出口签单环比走强；9月27日印度发起对PVC壁纸的反倾销调查。社会库存 小幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddles [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market has light trading volume, and the lead price continues to fluctuate. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by costs on the downside. In the short - term, it should be treated with a fluctuating mindset, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm, with the range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On November 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.21/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,325 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 17,225 lots, a decrease of 8,860 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 17,250 lots, a decrease of 5,231 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,265 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,170 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,300 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Henan lead smelters mainly focused on long - term contract deliveries, with few quotations for spot sales. Traders quoted a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory prices, and some quoted a discount of 120 - 130 yuan/ton. Hunan lead smelters had low inventories, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for a small amount of rigid demand transactions. Yunnan holders quoted a discount of 250 - 300 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the premiums of some local holders decreased. The spot market trading was light [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On November 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 19, the LME lead inventory was 264,475 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty in the commodity sector. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][3] - The domestic economic foundation needs further consolidation, and the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is controversial. The market is concerned about the US September non - farm payroll data and Japan's fiscal situation [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, and it is estimated that the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period may be around 5%. On October 30, China and the US reached a three - aspect outcome consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8; China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Investment, consumption, and industrial growth rates also slowed down. The State Council Executive Meeting on November 14 studied the implementation of "two major" construction and promoted consumption policies. On November 18 - 19, China and the Netherlands held consultations on the Nexperia issue, and the Dutch government suspended the administrative order [1] - Fed situation: Many Fed voting members have expressed cautious views on a December interest rate cut, but Fed Governor Waller supports a cut, and Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a slow - paced policy. The US government's shutdown ended on November 12, which is estimated to have reduced the Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points and caused a net loss of about $11 billion. The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and ADP data showed a weekly average decrease of 2,500 private - sector jobs in the four weeks up to November 1. Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas [1] - International situation: Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached a 17 - year high on November 19 due to expectations of a large - scale supplementary budget. Saudi Crown Prince will invest up to $1 trillion in the US [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous and precious metals: The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved and is boosted by global easing expectations. On November 19, the lithium carbonate futures main contract exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton. After the short - term adjustment risk of precious metals is cleared, consider buying on dips. On November 19, spot gold exceeded $4,100, up 0.85% intraday, and spot silver reached $52/ounce, up 2.58% intraday [2] - Black sector: Still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, focus on the "anti - involution" situation [2] - Energy sector: OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels last week [2] - Chemical sector: Pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea, PTA and other varieties [2] - Agricultural products: With the China - US talks concluded, focus on China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross-period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross-variety: None [2] Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3903 yuan/ton (a change of -4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.10%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3925 yuan/ton (a change of -30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.76%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 24 yuan/ton (a decrease of -6 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -59 US dollars/ton (a decrease of -2 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -994 yuan/ton (a decrease of -20 yuan/ton month-on-month). According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons (an increase of 7.1 tons month-on-month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 61.8 tons (an increase of 5.4 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 17 tons, and at the secondary ports were 4.7 tons; this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 11.1 tons, and at the secondary ports are 2.8 tons, showing a neutral situation overall. On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and the overseas ethylene glycol plant changes are limited. The planned arrivals of ethylene glycol around mid-November are still moderately high, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3903 yuan/ton (a change of -4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.10%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3925 yuan/ton (a change of -30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.76%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 24 yuan/ton (a decrease of -6 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -59 US dollars/ton (a decrease of -2 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -994 yuan/ton (a decrease of -20 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons (an increase of 7.1 tons month-on-month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 61.8 tons (an increase of 5.4 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 17 tons, and at the secondary ports were 4.7 tons; this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 11.1 tons, and at the secondary ports are 2.8 tons, showing a neutral situation overall [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices slightly increased after a slow new - order follow - up last week. Currently, agricultural and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers are ending, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. Melamine production has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off - season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories slightly increased. The high domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. The export quota news improves the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report shows information on urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and national capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents urea small - particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large - particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small - and large - particle FOB and CFR prices in China, price differences, and export and on - disk export profits, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [52][53][56] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,663 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (+9). The urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,044 yuan/ton (- 20) [2] - **Supply Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (- 46,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [2] - **Demand Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32% (- 0.72%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the number of advance order days of urea enterprises was 7.12 days (- 0.59) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 需求提升有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11560元/吨，较前交易日变动+25.00元/吨，幅度+0.22%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.71元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+150，较前交易日变动+85；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH01+210，较前交易日变动-5；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01-310，较前交易日变动-25。 据农业农村部监测，11月19日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.44，比昨天上升0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.55，比昨天上升0.04个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.92元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；牛肉66.70 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉62.38元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%；鸡蛋7.31元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17.47 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%。 市场分析 ...