1. Report Core View - The launch of new propylene futures is expected to promote the combination of futures and spot markets, enhance and meet the diverse risk management needs of physical enterprises, help the market discover prices, and further promote the healthy and stable development of the industry. The report comprehensively analyzes and introduces the propylene variety from a basic perspective, covering futures contracts, industry characteristics, and development trends [2][3] 2. Report Content Summary 2.1 Propylene Futures Contract - **Contract Introduction**: The trading code of propylene futures is PL, with a trading unit of 20 tons per lot. Based on the average spot price of propylene in 2024 of about 6,900 yuan/ton, the value of each lot is about 138,000 yuan. The minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, and the contract months are from January to December. The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month [7][9][10] - **Option Contract**: The trading code for call options is PL - contract month - C - strike price, and for put options is PL - contract month - P - strike price. The trading unit is 1 lot of propylene futures contract, the minimum price change is 0.5 yuan/ton, and the contract months are the two consecutive near - months of the underlying futures contract. The last trading day is the third - last trading day before (and including) the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract [12] - **Delivery Grade**: The benchmark delivery product is Type I propylene that meets the requirements of "National Standard of the People's Republic of China - Polymer - grade Propylene" (GB/T 7716 - 2024), with a water content ≤ 20mg/kg, and no requirements for hydrogen and carbonyl sulfide. The alternative delivery product allows a water content of 20 - 50mg/kg, with other indicators the same as the benchmark product [7][14] - **Risk Management**: The minimum trading margin for propylene futures contracts is 5% of the contract value. The margin standard increases to 10% from the 16th calendar day of the month before the delivery month to the last calendar day of that month, and to 20% during the delivery month. The position limit for non - futures company members and customers is 2,000 lots from contract listing to the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month, 500 lots from the 16th calendar day to the last calendar day of that month, and 50 lots (0 for natural person customers) during the delivery month [16][17][18] 2.2 Propylene Basic Concepts - **Physical Properties**: Propylene has a density of 1.914 kg/m³, a melting point of - 185°C, a boiling point of - 47.7°C, a flash point of - 108°C, an ignition temperature of 460°C, and a saturated vapor pressure of 1158 kPa. It burns with a bright flame, has low solubility in water, and is soluble in organic solvents such as ethanol and ether [20] - **Chemical Properties**: The chemical properties of propylene are determined by the double bond and the hydrogen atoms on the allyl group. It is the smallest stable unsaturated hydrocarbon with low symmetry, an electric dipole moment of 0.35D, and is prone to various chemical reactions [21] - **Storage and Transportation**: Propylene should be stored in pressurized liquefied form in carbon steel or stainless - steel containers, and long - term storage can use low - temperature liquefaction with vacuum - insulated storage tanks. Safety measures such as fire and explosion prevention, leakage prevention, and electrostatic protection are required. Transportation methods include road, rail, sea, and pipeline, and appropriate means should be selected according to distance and volume [24] 2.3 Propylene Industry Chain - **Overview**: The propylene industry chain has the "petroleum - propylene - polypropylene" as the core. The upstream includes petroleum, natural gas, coal, propane, naphtha, and methanol. The mid - stream involves production processes such as cracking, dehydrogenation, and coal - chemical processes. The downstream includes chemicals such as polypropylene, propylene oxide, and butanol, and the end - use demand is complex, covering multiple fields such as plastics, coatings, and textiles [26] - **Production Processes** - **Steam Cracking**: It is the core process for producing low - carbon olefins in the petrochemical industry, with ethylene as the core product and propylene as a co - product. In 2024, it accounted for about 35% of propylene supply. The product yield is negatively correlated with the molecular weight of the raw material. Although it currently maintains a basic supply position, its share is gradually decreasing [32] - **Catalytic Cracking**: It is a key secondary processing technology in oil refining. The conventional propylene yield is about 4%, while the DCC technology can achieve a propylene yield of over 20% [36] - **Coal - to - Propylene**: It includes CTO and MTO/MTP technologies. The MTP technology can increase the propylene selectivity to over 70%. China's coal - to - olefin industry is on a sustainable development path [39] - **Propane/Alkane Dehydrogenation**: The PDH process uses propane as the raw material and has advantages such as a short construction period, low investment cost, and low carbon emissions. In 2024, it accounted for about 30% of domestic propylene production capacity. The MDH process uses liquefied petroleum gas as the raw material and has strong raw material adaptability [41][42]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-13 铅价走高 现货成交相对低迷 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-06-12，LME铅现货升水为-28.65美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化75元/吨至16700 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/ 吨至16750元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/吨至16725元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化75元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10125元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10375元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-12，沪铅主力合约开于16870元/吨，收于16890元/吨，较前一交易日变化45元/吨，全天交易日 成交29540手，较前一交易日变化7816手，全天交易日持仓44388手，手较前一交易日变化399手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16965元/吨，最低点达到16840元/吨。夜盘方 ...

Market Observations - The implied volatility of USD/CNY options has been declining, indicating reduced market expectations for future volatility[4] - The current three-month USD/CNY implied volatility is at 0%[6] Policy Insights - The counter-cyclical factor is hovering around 0%, suggesting limited intervention in the currency market[10] - The three-month CNH HIBOR-SHIBOR differential shows a fluctuating trend with no clear direction[14] Macroeconomic Trends - The Federal Reserve is pricing in a 43.5 basis point rate cut by 2025, reflecting a slight decrease in expectations for rate cuts[18] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of marginal decline, with recent economic activity slightly down and concerns over consumer spending and labor market stability[21] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls showed a moderate decline in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%[22] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing to inflationary pressures[22] Fiscal Developments - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates a $2.4 trillion increase in deficits from 2025 to 2034 due to new legislation[23] - The proposed legislation includes significant tax reforms and spending cuts, which may impact economic growth and federal revenue[24]

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-13 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-06-12，上证50ETF期权成交量为72.64万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为62.95万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为108.73万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为5.23万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为83.83万张；上证50股指期权成交量为2.31万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为6.07万张；中证1000期权总成交量为14.71万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.85，环比变动为+0.17；持仓量PCR报0.96，环比变动为+0.00； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.72，环比变动为+0.12；持仓量PCR报0.89，环比变动为+0.01； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.76，环比变动为+0.12；持仓量PCR报1.27，环比变动为+0.06 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.13 ，环比变动为+0.35；持仓量PCR报0.90；环比变动为+0.01； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.96，环比变动为+0.24 ；持仓量PC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate remains weak. With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the lithium carbonate futures market has declined and returned to the fundamental level [3]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On June 12, 2025, the main contract 2507 of lithium carbonate opened at 61,400 yuan/ton and closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, a 1.56% drop from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 169,708 lots, and the open interest was 162,882 lots, a decrease of 15,353 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 578,788 lots, an increase of 15,808 lots. The total trading volume of the contracts decreased by 84,329 lots to 372,443 lots, and the overall speculation degree was 0.64. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 32,383 lots, a decrease of 454 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on June 12, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,100 - 61,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,550 - 59,550 yuan/ton, also an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Overseas mines are holding prices firm, with SC6 quoted at CIF $635/ton or higher. Downstream demand is weak due to sufficient inventory and pessimistic expectations for future lithium salt prices [1]. Inventory and Production - The latest weekly inventory increased slightly by 1,117 tons to 133,500 tons, mainly due to an increase in upstream inventory. The weekly production also increased slightly by 6,561 tons to 18,100 tons, with production from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes all increasing [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell - hedge on rallies. - Inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy. - Spot - futures: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices face significant upward pressure. The supply side has high pressure with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year. Although consumption is currently strong, it can't offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 22,310 yuan/ton, with the premium down 15 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 30 yuan/ton to 22,330 yuan/ton, with the premium up 5 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 20 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with the premium down 5 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On June 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,100 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 118,688 lots, down 51,539 lots. Open interest was 121,089 lots, down 4,690 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,965 - 22,160 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,100 tons, down 2,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 132,025 tons, down 550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Spot market: Downstream procurement enthusiasm is still low, and spot premiums continue to decline [3] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year [3] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs is not yet apparent. It can't offset high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [3]

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-13 港口库存回升，而基差仍小幅走强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润603元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1898元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差208元/吨（-8），内蒙南线1890元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2225元/吨（+5），鲁南 基差135元/吨（-3）；河南2125元/吨（+20），河南基差35元/吨（+12）；河北2105元/吨（+0），河北基差75元/吨（-8）。 隆众内地工厂库存379120吨（+8630），西北工厂库存237100吨（+2600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单302090吨（+39910）， 西北工厂待发订单167000吨（+17000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2382元/吨（+14），太仓基差92元/吨（+6），CFR中国271美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-17元/ 吨（-10），常州甲醇2340元/吨；广东甲醇2320元/吨（+15），广东基差30元/吨（+7）。隆众港口总库存652200吨 （+71000），江苏港口库存312000吨（+30700），浙江港口库存1 ...

发出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹26周价格1635/2730；HPL 6月下半月船期报价1835/2935，7月上半月船期 报价2635/4435。 FICC日报 | 2025-06-13 马士基6月最后一周价格开出，关注本周是否有7月份涨价函 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价1940/3240；ONE上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 2571/2937；HMM6月下半月上海-鹿特丹价格1717/3004。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA 6月上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 1861/3297，7月份船期报价2385/4345；EMC6月下半月船期报价2555/3610；OOCL 6月下半月报价1850/3100. 部分船司宣布6月份下半月涨价函，MSC 6月份下半月涨价函价格2340/3900（前期6月上半月涨价函价格 1920/3200）。 地缘端：美国总统特朗普：希望避免与伊朗发生冲突。伊朗将不得不进行更艰难的谈判。据AXIOS网站：美 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-13 市场情绪偏谨慎，指数震荡 市场分析 美国PPI符合预期。国内方面，外交部就"中美经贸磋商机制首次会议"答记者问称，本次会议是在两国元首的战略 指引下举行的，双方就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致， 就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。既然达成了共识，双方都应遵守。希望美方同中方一道落实两国元首通话 达成的重要共识，发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，通过沟通对话增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。随后，商务部在 谈到中美经贸关系时表示，中方反对单边加征关税措施的立场是一贯的，敦促美方恪守世贸组织规则，与中方按 照相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，共同推动中美经贸关系稳定、可持续发展。海外方面，美国5月PPI同 比增长2.6%，符合预期，前值增长2.4%。美国5月核心PPI同比增长3%，低于预期值3.1%，前值为3.1%。上周初请 失业金人数录得24.8万人，为2024年10月5日当周以来新高；预期24万人，前值由24.7万人修正为24.8万人。 指数震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡，上证指数涨0.01%收于3402.66点，创业板指涨0.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The recent performance of the chemical and infrastructure midstream sectors is positive, with the upstream energy seeing a rebound in international oil prices and a decline in egg prices, the midstream chemical and infrastructure sectors having high PX and urea operating rates and a continuous increase in asphalt operating rates, and the downstream real estate and service sectors showing flat sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities compared to the same period last year and a cyclical decrease in domestic flight schedules [1][2][3][4] - The overall industry credit spread has recently declined slightly [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Mid - view Event Overview Production Industry - Pay attention to the policy promotion of the low - altitude economy. Shenzhen will focus on building a new - generation national artificial intelligence innovation and development experimental zone and a national low - altitude economy industrial comprehensive demonstration zone to boost the development of artificial intelligence and low - altitude economy industries [1] Service Industry - The entry - exit policy for foreign tourists has been relaxed. Since June 12, 2025, Indonesian citizens can enjoy the 240 - hour transit visa - free policy, and the number of countries applicable to China's 240 - hour transit visa - free policy has increased to 55 [1] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have declined [2] Midstream - Chemical: The operating rates of PX and urea are at recent highs [3] - Infrastructure: The asphalt operating rate has been continuously rising recently [3] Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year and are at a near - three - year low [4] - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4] 3. Market Pricing - The overall industry credit spread has recently declined slightly [5] 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides the credit spread data of various industries on different time points (last year's same period, one month ago, last week, this week), and their quantiles and weekly trends, such as the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and animal husbandry industry being 59.58 this week, with a quantile of 1.10 [53] 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report shows the price data of key products in various industries, including frequency, unit, update time, current price, year - on - year change, and the trend in the past 5 days. For example, the spot price of corn in the agricultural industry is 2330.0 yuan/ton on June 12, with a year - on - year increase of 1.56% [54]