Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The shipping company's prices are in a downward cycle, and the freight rates of August contracts have reached their peak and are continuously being revised downwards, which brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. For the October contracts, short - positions are the main strategy, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. For the December contracts, the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The recommended strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [4][5][6][8]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's WEEK34 quote is 1595/2670, and HPL's quotes vary by shipping period [1]. Geopolitical Situation - Hamas officials stated that the organization will regard any armed forces aiming to manage Gaza as "occupation" forces associated with Israel based on Netanyahu's remarks [2]. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September it is 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional ships, and the OA Alliance added three. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and there are currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [3]. Contract Analysis - **August Contracts**: The freight rate peak has passed, and the continuous downward revision of freight rates has brought uncertainty to the delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th. The prices of shipping companies have entered a downward cycle [4]. - **October Contracts**: It is a seasonal contract with short - positions as the main strategy. Attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. Normally, prices in October are 20% - 30% lower than those in August [5]. - **December Contracts**: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. The risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Usually, the prices from the Far East to Europe in December are more than 10% higher than those in October [6]. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 7, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures is 77,291 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 32,213 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are also given [7]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8]. Risk Factors - **Downside Risks**: Unexpected economic slowdown in Europe and the United States, significant decline in crude oil prices, unexpected delivery of ships, less - than - expected ship idling, and better - than - expected resolution of the Red Sea crisis. - **Upside Risks**: Economic recovery in Europe and the United States, supply chain disruptions, significant reduction in shipping capacity by liner companies, and continued fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to detours [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated arrival of delayed goods affected by the typhoon last week, the main ports accumulated inventory this week, causing the price center of ethylene glycol to oscillate downward and the basis to weaken [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2]. - On the supply side, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production in China has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants on the non-coal side have plans or actions to switch from EO to EG, with an overall load that is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and ideally, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the terminal in July, significantly alleviating the inventory pressure of filament. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable at a low level with a slight increase in August [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory has decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 rates of CPL and styrene have declined, and there is still some pressure on finished product inventory for the corresponding downstream. Phenol - ketone 开工 has also declined. In terms of supply, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but there is an impact from the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China, and BZ processing fees continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, port inventory declined again during the week, port basis and the 09 - 10 inter - period spread of futures rebounded from the bottom. Combined with the increase in downstream提货 volume, it reflects that the speculative demand for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" has begun to appear. This week, the 开工 of styrene downstream was differentiated. EPS significantly reduced its load due to inventory pressure, while the 开工 of PS and ABS rebounded from the bottom. The inventory pressure of PS has eased, but the inventory pressure of ABS still persists [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene main contract basis was - 113 yuan/ton (+78), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 was - 25 yuan/ton (+50). Styrene main contract basis was 49 yuan/ton (- 11 yuan/ton) [1] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee was 173 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee was 161 dollars/ton (+9 dollars/ton), with a US - South Korea spread of 86.8 dollars/ton (+6.1 dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit was - 280 yuan/ton (- 62 yuan/ton), and it was expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory was 16.30 tons (- 0.70 tons), styrene East China port inventory was 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), and East China commercial inventory was 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons). The 开工 rate of pure benzene downstream was mixed, and the 开工 rate of styrene was 77.7% (- 1.2%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit was 178 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), PS production profit was - 72 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit was 92 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton). EPS 开工 rate was 43.67% (- 10.58%), PS 开工 rate was 55.00% (+1.70%), and ABS 开工 rate was 71.10% (+5.20%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit was - 1,660 yuan/ton (- 80), phenol - ketone production profit was - 647 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit was 101 yuan/ton (+261), and adipic acid production profit was - 1,472 yuan/ton (- 72). Caprolactam 开工 rate was 88.41% (- 1.79%), phenol 开工 rate was 77.00% (+4.00%), aniline 开工 rate was 73.46% (- 0.48%), and adipic acid 开工 rate was 54.40% (- 10.40%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The port accelerated inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol production remained at a high level, and the pressure of arrivals in August increased. The Xingxing MTO device was shut down for maintenance for one month at the end of July. In the inland area, some maintenance work is still scheduled in the northwest in August, and the production will not recover until late August. The inventory of inland methanol factories decreased further, and the inland market was stronger than the port market. However, the production of acetic acid, which had a high operating rate previously, started to decline, and formaldehyde was in the seasonal off - season, waiting for a bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inland demand resilience [2]. Summary by Catalog 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures show methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05 futures contracts, 05 and 09 futures contracts, and 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][19][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [23][26][27]. 3. Methanol Production & Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) are presented in figures [31][32]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show regional price differences such as between Luobei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc [39][45][50]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream products including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [41][52]. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when it is high [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint As the situation develops, the possibility of a tri - party meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky in the near future has increased. If the leaders of the three parties meet, it could be a key milestone in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. However, this negotiation does not include the EU, and although a certain degree of cease - fire cannot be ruled out, the two sides in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have significant differences on the cease - fire, so continuous attention to the development of the situation is needed [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 47 cents to $63.88 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 46 cents to $66.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.69%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.43% at 497 yuan per barrel [2]. - Putin said that the UAE is one of the suitable locations for a meeting with Trump, and generally, he doesn't mind meeting Zelensky [3]. - The US Treasury Department issued new sanctions against Iran targeting several individuals and entities [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky had phone calls with leaders of several European countries to discuss the Russia - Ukraine situation. Italian Prime Minister Meloni had phone calls with Trump, Zelensky, and UAE President Mohammed on August 7, focusing on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and calling for a cease - fire agreement. Zelensky also had a phone call with the Prime Minister of Albania and a meeting with the Romanian Foreign Minister [3]. - US President Trump is looking forward to hosting a historic peace summit at the White House with the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia, and a formal peace - signing ceremony will be held, along with the US signing bilateral agreements with these two countries [3]. Investment Logic The increasing possibility of a tri - party meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could be a key milestone in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but due to the exclusion of the EU and the large differences between the two sides on the cease - fire, continuous attention to the situation is required [4]. Strategy Oil prices will fluctuate within a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply and demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Temporary shutdown of Binhuahua device led to a short - term tightening of propylene supply, causing a slight increase in spot prices in the main regions. However, there are expectations of restarting Binhuahua and Tianhong PDH devices and releasing new production capacity, so there is still pressure of loose supply [2] - Demand side: Some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, and there is an expectation of recovery for Kaitai acrylic acid. Downstream demand has staged support, and the overall downstream start - up rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but its sustainability is doubtful during the traditional off - season [2] - Cost side: Crude oil prices fluctuate, and geopolitical instability still exists [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes data on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [18][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report shows the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][38] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It provides data on the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory is presented [67]

农产品日报 | 2025-08-08 需求延续弱势，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14100元/吨，较前交易日变动+90.00元/吨，幅度+0.64%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.73元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.23元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-370，较前交易日变动-320；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.02元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09-80，较前交易日变动-160；四川地 区外三元生猪价格13.24元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.14元/公斤，现货基差LH09-860，较前交易日变动-230。 据农业农村部监测，8月7日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.92，比昨天上升0.14个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为114.09，比昨天上升0.16个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.45元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%；牛肉64.50 元/公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉59.36元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.54元/公斤，与昨天持平；白条鸡17.51元/公斤， 比昨天上升0.6%。 市场分析 综合来看，当前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, and the three major stock indexes present a differentiated trend, with the Nasdaq closing higher. China's export data continues to grow, demonstrating economic resilience. In the domestic market, liquidity remains abundant. Although there is short - term market rotation and adjustment, the medium - and long - term upward trend is unquestionable. Investors can pay attention to the layout opportunities of low - level chips [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The national policy of exempting preschool education fees covers all senior kindergarten children, expected to benefit about 12 million people this fall semester and reduce family expenses by 20 billion yuan. Customs data shows that in July, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%, with two consecutive months of growth. In the first seven months, the total value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [1] - **Stock Market**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated and diverged. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to close at 3639.67 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. In terms of industries, sector indexes showed mixed trends. Non - ferrous metals, beauty care, real estate, and textile and apparel industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and communication industries led the declines. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to over 1.8 trillion yuan. In the overseas market, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, higher than market expectations. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.51% and the Nasdaq rising 0.35% to 21,242.70 points [1] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the discount of the current - month IH contract was slightly repaired. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, and the three major stock indexes are differentiated, with the Nasdaq closing higher. China's export data continues to grow, showing economic resilience. In the domestic market, liquidity is abundant. Although there is short - term market rotation and adjustment, the medium - and long - term upward trend is certain. Investors can focus on the layout opportunities of low - level chips [3] Charts Summary - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A - share trends, U.S. Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and U.S. Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][6] - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on August 7, 2025, and August 6, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.03%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.31%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.01%. There are also charts showing the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][6][13] - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: The table shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM). For example, the trading volume of IF was 93,269, an increase of 19,361, and the open interest was 260,437, an increase of 7,431. There are also charts showing the open interest, latest open interest ratio, net open interest of foreign capital, basis, and inter - delivery spread of each contract [5][6][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.25% at 2,826 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.25% at 3,526 yuan/ton [1] - After the recent correction, crude oil prices have shown a weak oscillatory trend, providing limited short-term directional guidance for FU and LU prices. The medium-term expectation of a looser balance sheet potentially suppresses the energy sector [1] - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, after consecutive adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited. Currently, spot supply is relatively abundant, while demand lacks growth momentum. Although power generation demand is boosted by the peak season, it lacks drivers beyond seasonality. According to Platts data, Fujairah's fuel oil inventory reached 9.656 million barrels this week, a 21.67% increase from the previous week. Looking ahead, in the long-term trend of crude oil lightening and refinery unit upgrades, structural support remains. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be monitored [1] - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, current market pressure is limited, and supply growth remains constrained. Domestic production remains low, and the tight supply situation in the bonded area has not been fully alleviated. Medium-term prospects are not optimistic as the ample remaining low-sulfur fuel oil production capacity will attract supply release once crack spreads are favorable, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil [1] Strategy Summary - High-sulfur: Close out previous short positions on FU crack spreads (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - Low-sulfur: No specific strategy mentioned [2] - Cross-variety: Close out previous short positions on FU crack spreads (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - Inter-period: Close out previous FU reverse calendar spread positions [2] - Spot-futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Chart Information - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot prices, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot prices, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contracts, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contracts, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spreads, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spreads, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing prices, fuel oil FU futures index closing prices, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing prices, fuel oil FU near-month contract spreads, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing prices, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing prices, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract prices, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spreads, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-08 一钢厂控产，不锈钢现货成交转好 镍品种 市场分析 2025-08-07日沪镍主力合约2509开于121440元/吨，收于121850元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.97%，当日成交量为 96611手，持仓量为81103手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘高开冲高受阻快速回落后小幅振荡，日盘继续回落，午后走高创近期新高，收阳线。成交量较 上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。菲律宾方面，矿山多处装船出货阶段。下游国内铁厂多降 负荷生产操作，原料采购维持谨慎。印尼方面，印尼地区天气稍有好转，镍矿开采效率提升，印尼镍矿行情走弱。 8月（一期）内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3美元；内贸升水方面，8月（一期）升水以+24为主流，环比持平，区间+23-25。 现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约50元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调，盘面镍价先跌 又涨，精炼镍现货成交偏淡，精炼镍现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化0元/吨至2250元/吨，进口镍升水 变化0元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为20687（-102.0）吨，LME镍 ...