1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port price of methanol continues to decline, and the port inventory has dropped from its high for the first time, with the port methanol flowing back to the inland. The key lies in whether the inland can withstand the impact of the port's backflow. The overseas market maintains a high - operating rate, and the focus is on when the winter maintenance in Iran will be implemented. The auction in the inland has improved, and the inventory of inland factories has slightly decreased. The MTO units of Yangmei are under maintenance, and Luxi MTO maintains a low - load operation. The commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong needs attention. In the traditional downstream, the operating rate of acetic acid continues to decline, formaldehyde operates at a low load in the off - season, and the operating rate of MTBE is acceptable. There are few coal - based maintenance projects in the inland, and the gas - based units in the southwest are waiting for the maintenance from late November to December [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Inland - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 573 yuan/ton (+10). The price of methanol in Inner Mongolia's northern line is 1978 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 565 yuan/ton (+27); in Inner Mongolia's southern line, it is 1920 yuan/ton (unchanged). In Shandong Linyi, it is 2140 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 327 yuan/ton (+17). In Henan, it is 2000 yuan/ton (-15), with a basis of 187 yuan/ton (+2). In Hebei, it is 2075 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 322 yuan/ton (+17). The inventory of inland factories is 358,700 tons (-10,550), and the inventory of northwest factories is 188,500 tons (-17,000). The pending orders of inland factories are 246,320 tons (+920), and those of northwest factories are 125,400 tons (+8,900) [2]. 3.1.2 Port - The price of methanol in Taicang is 1997 yuan/ton (-5), with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton (+12), CFR China is 234 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the import price difference in East China is - 46 yuan/ton (-10). In Changzhou, it is 2235 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 1990 yuan/ton (-20), with a basis of - 23 yuan/ton (-3). The total port inventory is 1,479,340 tons (-64,260), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 819,300 tons (-17,300), in Zhejiang ports is 198,500 tons (-21,300), and in Guangdong ports is 277,000 tons (-13,000). The operating rate of downstream MTO is 89.26% (-0.55%) [3]. 3.1.3 Regional Price Differences - The price differences such as Luobei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., have different changes, with some decreasing and some increasing [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The port price continues to decline, and the inventory drops from its high. The key is the winter maintenance in Iran and whether the inland can withstand the back - flow. In the inland, the auction improves, and the factory inventory decreases. In the MTO sector, some units are under maintenance or operating at low loads. The commissioning progress of Lianhong's second - phase MTO needs attention. In the traditional downstream, the operating rates of different products vary [4]. 3.3 Strategy - There are no strategies for unilateral, inter - period, and cross - variety trading [5]. 3.4 Figures in Each Section 3.4.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia's northern line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][8][24]. 3.4.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference of methanol in Taicang, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][29][30]. 3.4.3 Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [7][39][41]. 3.4.4 Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Luobei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, etc. [7][43][49]. 3.4.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [7][53][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The stock index maintains a box - shaped operation. Overseas, there are significant differences within the Federal Reserve on interest rate policies, and the uncertainty of the subsequent interest - rate cut rhythm has increased. Domestically, the market shows a shrinking and volatile trend, with selling pressure alleviated, and the index generally maintains a box - shaped fluctuation pattern supported by heavy - weight stocks [1][3] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to close at 3946.74 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.25%. Most of the sector indexes declined, with non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, while real estate, media, building materials, and commercial retail industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.7 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.59% to 22564.23 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures tends to converge as the current - month contract is delivered this Friday. The trading volume and open interest of IM increased simultaneously [2] Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A - share trends, U.S. Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and U.S. Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on November 19, 2025 shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.00%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.25%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.44%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.58%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.82% [13] - There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [14] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of stock index futures show that for IF, the trading volume is 122,613 (+750), and the open interest is 272,167 (- 6521); for IH, the trading volume is 53,539 (-1220), and the open interest is 95,237 (-2454); for IC, the trading volume is 132,592 (-1848), and the open interest is 248,512 (-5507); for IM, the trading volume is 227,467 (+9700), and the open interest is 364,139 (+2119) [18] - There are charts on the open interest, open - interest ratio, and net open interest of foreign investors for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [19][24][29] - The basis data of stock index futures shows the basis values and their changes for different contracts (current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter) of IF, IH, IC, and IM [38] - The inter - delivery spread data of stock index futures shows the spreads and their changes between different delivery months of IF, IH, IC, and IM [43] - There are also corresponding charts for basis and inter - delivery spreads [39][47]

Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices continue to decline [3] - Non-ferrous: Nickel prices fall [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices correct [3] - Infrastructure: Building materials index rises slightly [3] Midstream - Chemicals: Urea production starts to pick up [4] - Energy: Coal inventory in power plants decreases [4] - Infrastructure: Asphalt production starts to decline [4] Downstream - Real estate: Seasonal decline in commercial housing sales in second- and third-tier cities [4] - Services: Slight decline in domestic flight schedules [4] Medium-term Event Summary Production Industry - On November 19, the mobilization meeting of the First Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team for inspecting Beijing was held, marking the full deployment of the fifth batch of 10 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams in the third round. This batch of inspections will form 8 routine inspection teams to conduct routine inspections on 3 provinces (municipalities) including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, and 5 central enterprises including China Huadian Corporation, National Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd., Ansteel Group Co., Ltd., China Baowu Steel Group Co., Ltd., and China National Coal Group Corporation [1] - From November 16 to 19, Zhang Guoqing, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, investigated the digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the innovation and development of state-owned enterprises in Guizhou and Chongqing. He emphasized that state-owned enterprises should continuously improve their independent innovation capabilities, cultivate new productive forces and build new competitive advantages through the in-depth integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation. They should improve the institutional arrangements for promoting original innovation in state-owned enterprises, increase the proportion of R & D investment in basic research, accelerate the layout and construction of original technology sources, and make more breakthroughs in key core technologies, key common technologies, and frontier technologies [1] Service Industry - On November 19, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement stating that on November 18, the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China, on behalf of the central government, successfully issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Luxembourg. Among them, 2 billion euros were issued for a 4 - year term at an issue rate of 2.401%, and 2 billion euros were issued for a 7 - year term at an issue rate of 2.702%. Standard Chartered Bank, as the joint lead underwriter, bookrunner, and settlement and delivery bank, supported the successful issuance of the 4 - billion - euro sovereign bonds by the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Luxembourg [2] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | H | Yuan/ton | 11/19 | 2185.7 | 1.12% | | | | Spot price: Egg | Day | Yuan/kg | 11/19 | 6.2 | - 4.62% | | | | Spot price: Palm oil | H | Yuan/ton | 11/19 | 8820.0 | 1.26% | | | | Spot price: Cotton | H | Yuan/ton | 11/19 | 14787.3 | - 0.22% | | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Day | Yuan/kg | 11/19 | 17.9 | - 1.10% | | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price: Copper | Day | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 86020.0 | - 0.95% | | | | Spot price: Zinc | Day | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 22304.0 | - 1.52% | | | | Spot price: Aluminum | H | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 21473.3 | - 0.14% | | | | Spot price: Nickel | H | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 117383.3 | - 2.92% | | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | H | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 17188.8 | - 1.36% | | | | Spot price: Rebar | H | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 3161.3 | 1.05% | | | | Spot price: Iron ore | Day | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 805.2 | 1.71% | | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Day | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 3320.0 | 0.23% | | | Non - metals | Spot price: Glass | H | Yuan/square meter | 11/19 | 13.7 | - 2.14% | | | | Spot price: Natural rubber | Day | Yuan/ton | 11/19 | 14891.7 | 0.06% | | | | China Plastic City price index | H | - | 11/19 | 767.6 | - 0.35% | | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Day | US dollars/barrel | 11/19 | 60.7 | - 0.49% | | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 11/19 | 64.9 | - 0.41% | | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | H | Yuan/ton | 11/19 | 4182.0 | - 0.48% | | | | Coal price: Coal | H | Yuan/ton | 11/19 | 831.0 | - 0.36% | | | Chemicals | Spot price: PTA | H | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 4628.8 | - 0.18% | | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | Day | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 7005.0 | 0.41% | | | | Spot price: Urea | Day | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 1630.0 | 0.15% | | | | Spot price: Soda ash | H | Yuan/ton | 11/18 | 1218.6 | 0.53% | | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | H | - | 11/19 | 136.2 | - 0.15% | | | | Building materials composite index | H | Points | 11/19 | 113.8 | 1.41% | | | | Concrete price index: National index | Day | Points | 11/19 | 90.8 | - 0.03% | | [38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][6][9] Core Views - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the decline of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices is limited. In the long - term, raw sugar may remain in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou sugar may have a pessimistic outlook next year [4][6] - **Pulp**: The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.67%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,557 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan: As of November 15, 2025/26, the cumulative listing of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 753,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA's November report increased US cotton production, and global cotton supply and demand data were adjusted negatively. The short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestic: After the National Day holiday, the expected decline in new cotton production and the stable increase in seed cotton purchase prices supported the previous rebound. However, new cotton is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [1] Strategy - Short - term: Cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调. Long - term: Cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - India: The central government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season and will consider raising the minimum selling price [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Global sugar production is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound is restricted [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: New - season domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but the price is near the cost line, and the decline space is limited [4] Strategy - Short - term: Focus on the support around 5,400 yuan/ton, and treat Zhengzhou sugar with a shock mentality before the Spring Festival. Long - term: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may reach a new low next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,396 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - Market: The import pulp spot market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was limited [7] Market Analysis - Supply: European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained high. Domestic port inventory decline was slower than expected [8] - Demand: Global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing, and domestic demand is weak, which suppresses pulp prices [8] Strategy - The continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-20 现货整体持稳，市场氛围尚可 市场分析 1、\t11月19日地区价格：山东市场，4250-4380；东北市场，4040-4150；华北市场，4300-4400；华东市场，4170-4350； 沿江市场，4510-4810；西北市场，4250-4300；华南市场，4250-4300。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年12月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷560美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4431元/吨，涨16元/吨，丁烷4368元/吨，涨15元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷562美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷554美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4384元/吨，涨16元/吨，丁烷4321元/吨，涨15元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日外盘价格继续小幅上涨，叠加高贴水，LPG到岸成本受到支撑，内外盘价格表现显著强于原油端。现货方面， 昨日整体价格维稳，市场氛围尚可，下游按需采购，卖方库压尚可。就LPG自身基本面而言，海外供应相对充裕， 国内商品受检修 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and an oversupply situation, so nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range. For stainless steel, due to low demand, high inventories, and a downward - moving cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [1][3][4]. Market Analysis (Nickel) Futures - On November 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 115,300 yuan/ton and closed at 115,650 yuan/ton, a 0.29% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 82,563 (-34,853) lots, and the open interest was 85,012 (6,815) lots. The overall trend showed a slight rebound, mainly a technical pull - back after the previous day's sharp decline. The daily price fluctuation was only 660 yuan/ton, indicating cautious trading and strong wait - and - see sentiment. The end of the US government shutdown may affect the December interest rate cut, and the current probability of a rate cut is less than 50% [1]. Nickel Ore - According to Mysteel, nickel ore tenders have been finalized, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the 1.4% nickel ore tender of Eramen in the north was finalized at $42/wet ton, while the 1.25% nickel ore tender of Benguet has no transaction yet. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are mostly waiting and trying to lower prices when purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased by $0.12 - $0.2/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 119,500 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands increased slightly, but traders were cautious in taking goods at high premiums. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 4,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (799) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,846 (-1,986) tons [2]. Strategy (Nickel) - Due to high inventories and a continuous oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [3]. Market Analysis (Stainless Steel) Futures - On November 19, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,340 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,679 (-3,721) lots, and the open interest was 183,832 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a volatile downward trend, continuing the previous day's decline, with the price center moving down. The daily line closed with a small negative line, and the price continued to run below the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, maintaining a good medium - term downward trend. Affected by weak downstream demand, high inventories, and continuously falling nickel prices, there are still no signs of a stainless - steel price rebound [3]. Spot - At the end of the year, demand is weak, market trading is light, and both costs and prices are on a downward trend, leading to strong wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 385 and 635 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 897.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy (Stainless Steel) - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously downward - moving cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range. The recommended strategy is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak; Medium - term: Bearish allocation, short the spread between different contract months [3] 2. Core View - Short - term oil prices are significantly affected by market sentiment. Media reports of a Ukrainian peace plan, an increase in Russian crude oil production, and macro - pessimistic sentiment, especially concerns about the decline of US tech stocks, have all contributed to the market sentiment. The market is also waiting for the impact of the formal implementation of Russian sanctions on November 21 [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price Movements**: On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price dropped $1.30 to $59.44 per barrel, a 2.14% decline; the January - delivery Brent crude oil futures price in London fell $1.38 to $63.51 per barrel, a 2.13% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.60% at 456 yuan per barrel [1] - **Russian Oil Situation**: Russia's 2025 oil production forecast remains unchanged at 510 million tons. Russia does not plan to actively cut oil production and will adhere to the OPEC+ agreement. Fuel prices have stabilized, and retail fuel prices have started to decline. Sanctions on Russian oil companies have not affected production, and Russia may reach the OPEC+ oil production quota by the end of 2025. Russia has fully compensated for over - production under the OPEC+ agreement [1] - **Saudi Oil Data**: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high of 6.46 million barrels per day, slightly higher than August's 6.407 million barrels per day. Its crude oil production in September hit a two - and - a - half - year peak of 9.966 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2023 [1] - **UAE Oil Inventory**: As of the week ending November 17, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.652 million barrels, a decrease of 1.159 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 562,000 barrels to 7.225 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 176,000 barrels to 3.188 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 773,000 barrels to 10.239 million barrels [1] - **South Sudan Oil**: South Sudan's oil transportation has resumed after the interruption caused by the attack on energy facilities in neighboring Sudan. All oil fields in South Sudan have returned to normal export levels, and all crude oil is fully transported to the export terminal at Port Sudan [1] Investment Logic - Market sentiment, including media reports of a Ukrainian peace plan, an increase in Russian crude oil production, and concerns about the decline of US tech stocks, has a large impact on short - term oil prices. The market is also awaiting the impact of the formal implementation of Russian sanctions on November 21 [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak; Medium - term: Bearish allocation, short the spread between different contract months [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with a Bullish Bias [5] Core Views - Steel has inventory pressure, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore supply pressure remains, and prices will likely oscillate at high levels. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to early release of warehouse receipt pressure. Thermal coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, influenced by the winter heating season and other factors [1][2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly, and spot transactions were generally dull, with low - price rigid demand as the main driver. National building materials transactions were 9.23 tons, a 4.14% decrease from the previous day. Building materials production and sales declined, inventory decreased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, inventory declined, and consumption increased [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production decreased, inventory continued to decline, apparent consumption was weak, and the fundamentals continued to face pressure. The contradictions of high inventory and high production of strip materials have not been resolved. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and subsequent winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices maintained a sideways trend, spot prices rose slightly, and transactions improved. National main port iron ore cumulative transactions were 72.1 tons, an 18.98% increase from the previous day [2] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remained at a high level, inventory continued to increase, and steel mills were losing money and reducing production. There was a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal. However, considering the limited arrival volume of iron ore, the downward adjustment space for ore prices was insufficient, and they would likely maintain a range - bound operation. Subsequent hot metal production and downstream inventory changes need to be monitored [2] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [2] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Imported Mongolian coal prices at ports declined due to the downward transmission of futures prices, and market trading volume continued to decline [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic production gradually recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and seaborne coal imports increased. Speculative demand decreased, and downstream maintained a rigid procurement rhythm. For coke, after four rounds of price increases, coking enterprise profits improved, but supply did not increase significantly. Although hot metal increased slightly, further steel mill production reduction plans need to be monitored. Currently, the coking coal trading focus is on the warehouse receipt value, and the market avoids subsequent warehouse receipt pressure through early price drops [3] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Sideways; Coke: Sideways; Other strategies: None [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices rose slightly, and downstream procurement was acceptable, mostly on a demand - based basis. Supply was relatively stable, but some resources were difficult to ship, and miners were still optimistic. Port inspections were still strict, and some coal mines sold a small amount of goods as their tasks were almost completed. At ports, transactions were mainly long - term contracts, and downstream resistance to high - priced coal was high, with market coal transactions relatively cold. Due to gale - induced port closures, inventory slowly increased. Imported coal still had profit margins, and the market was active [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the producing areas was limited, and downstream procurement was more cautious. However, with the arrival of the winter heating season, port inventory accumulation was lower than expected, and non - power downstream demand was strong. Short - term prices will fluctuate strongly, and overall consumption and restocking need to be monitored [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the container shipping market, including shipping prices, capacity supply, contract trading, and potential investment opportunities and risks. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of price increases in December and the potential for significant differences in the February 2026 contract. The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [4][5][8]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Multiple shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in November and December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk had a 48 - week price of 1230/2060 and a December first - week price of 1600/2500. HPL - SPOT's 12 - month price shows a significant increase from the second half of November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas rejects the UN Security Council's resolution on Gaza, and resistance against Israel remains a concern, which may impact the shipping market [2]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In November, the weekly average capacity was 27.58 million TEU, and in December, it is 31.3 million TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December [3]. Contract Analysis - **December Contracts**: The trading of December contracts is about rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term contract negotiations. Currently, the price center in the second half of November is around 2100 - 2200 dollars/FEU, and the bottom support of December contracts is rising [4]. - **February 2026 Contracts**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed shipping. The delivery and settlement time is determined, and its price is likely to reflect the spot price center at the end of January 2026 [5]. Shipping Capacity and Delivery - **Container Ship Delivery**: 2025 is a major year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12000 - 16999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [8]. Market Data - **Futures Data**: As of November 18, 2025, the total position of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 70,638.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 38,037.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1678.10 [6]. - **Spot Data**: On November 14, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1417 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1823 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2600 dollars/FEU. On November 17, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1357.67 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1238.42 points [6].

股指期权日报 | 2025-11-19 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-11-18，上证50ETF期权成交量为119.29万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为122.58万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为132.55万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为9.29万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为177.34万张；上证50股指期权成交量为4.54万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为15.31万张；中证1000期权总成交量为32.35万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.95，环比变动为-0.10；持仓量PCR报0.84，环比变动为-0.07； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.32，环比变动为+0.10；持仓量PCR报0.91，环比变动为-0.08； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.30，环比变动为+0.21；持仓量PCR报1.07，环比变动为-0.11 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.75 ，环比变动为+0.24；持仓量PCR报1.35；环比变动为-0.11； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报1.32，环比变动为+0.01 ；持 ...