Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental verification stage. China's July import and export data exceeded expectations, but the export is still under pressure due to the upcoming "reciprocal tariff 2.0", and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations needs to be continuously monitored. The US has imposed a series of new tariffs, and Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, which will have a certain impact on the market. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there are internal differences due to the increasing inflation risk. Putin said that he may meet with Trump in the UAE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 deployed the economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for continuous and timely strengthening of macro policies and more moderate "anti-involution" policies. China's official manufacturing PMI in July fell to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non-manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, mainly supported by the low base last year and the "rush to export" effect under tariff uncertainty. Imports increased by 4.1%, with significant growth in the imports of integrated circuits, copper ore concentrates, and high-tech products [1] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and the EU's chip exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff cap. The US economic data in July was not as expected, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy continued to drag down business activities. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [2] Commodity Segments - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies should be closely monitored. The supply constraints in the non-ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the impact of tariff implementation on demand expectations needs to be followed. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ accelerated production increase, agreeing to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, urea and other products is also worthy of attention. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Key News - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $25.2 billion to $3.2922 trillion compared with the end of June, a decrease of 0.76%. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces in July, the ninth consecutive month of increase. China's exports in July increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB and 7.2% in US dollars, while imports increased by 4.8% in RMB and 4.1% in US dollars. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and will sign an executive order to allow 401K accounts to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and private equity funds. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Putin said he may meet with Trump in the UAE [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] Core View - The accumulation of zinc ingot inventories is accelerating. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply pressure and the current consumption off - season. [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$9.79 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,510 yuan per ton, with a premium of -35 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,470 yuan per ton, with a premium of -75 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton, with a premium of -45 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On August 7, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,480 yuan per ton and closed at 22,580 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,099 lots, and the open interest was 96,819 lots. The highest price was 22,630 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,420 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 84,950 tons, a decrease of 4,275 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Supply**: In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure is continuously increasing [5]. - **Cost**: There is no interference in the overseas mining end, and the domestic ore TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm [5]. - **Consumption**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The inventory accumulation speed is accelerating, and the accumulation trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]

化工日报 | 2025-08-08 轮胎厂开工率环比走低 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15525元/吨，较前一日变动+30元/吨。NR主力合约12350元/吨，较前一日变动+30 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14550元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14350元/吨， 较前一日变动+30元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1775美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1720美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 市场资讯 上半年，泰国出口到中国天然橡胶合计为55.7万吨，同比增13%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为35.5万吨，同比降 11%；烟片胶出口到中国合计为5.7万吨，同比增307%；乳胶出口到中国合计为14.3万吨，同比增77%。 乘联分会发布的最新数据显示，今年6月，全国乘用车市场零售208.4万辆，同比增长18.1%，环比增长7.6%。今年 上半年，乘用车市场累计零售1,090.1万辆， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral strategy for the oil and fat industry [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The weather in the US soybean production areas is favorable, with a decreasing drought rate and good growth. As the weather window gradually closes, there are strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which puts pressure on the oil and fat market, leading to an oscillatory adjustment [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.22% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8,406 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9,496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan or 0.69% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + -10 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.23%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 104 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or 0.62%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 114 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - **US Drought**: As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [2] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares (118.9 million acres), a 1.43% increase from the previous year, the smallest increase since the 2006/07 season. The estimated production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons. Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, compared to 7.98 million tons last year [2] - **US Soybean Exports**: The net sales of US soybean exports in the 2024/2025 season were 468,000 tons, up from 349,000 tons the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 545,000 tons, up from 429,000 tons the previous week [2] - **Brazilian Exports**: Brazilian soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, compared to 7.98 million tons last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.74 million tons, compared to 2.1 million tons last year; corn exports are expected to be 7.58 million tons, compared to 6.42 million tons last year [2] - **Import Prices**: Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price is $561/ton, down $7/ton; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price is $551/ton, down $7/ton. Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) C&F price is $1,141/ton, down $12/ton; Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price is $1,120/ton, down $21/ton [2]

油料日报 | 2025-08-08 天气与政策窗口期下，新旧作物交替影响显现 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4134.00元/吨，较前日变化+16.00元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+166，较前日变化-16，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆价格稳定。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/ 斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳 木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一市场呈现温和回升态势。市场焦点集中于周五中储粮计划开展的大豆单向拍卖活动，同时关内地区持续 关注降雨天气对新季大豆生长的影响。关外主产区大豆价格保持稳定。受季节性消费淡季及新豆上市预期影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PG futures market shows a weak and volatile trend with insufficient positive catalysts, while the spot market has stable prices, moderate production and sales, and no concerns about inventory pressure from sellers. Overseas supply remains abundant, and domestic arrivals are high. In the off - season, the demand for combustion is weak, and the demand for deep - processing lacks the power for continuous growth [1]. - The strategy for single - side trading is weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the bottom - building signals of the market. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On August 7th, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4420 - 4560 yuan/ton; Northeast market 4040 - 4360 yuan/ton; North China market 4410 - 4600 yuan/ton; East China market 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4400 - 4640 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4000 - 4250 yuan/ton; South China market 4340 - 4500 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 554 dollars/ton and 512 dollars/ton respectively, both down 2 dollars/ton. In South China, they were 550 dollars/ton and 508 dollars/ton respectively, also down 2 dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices of propane and butane in East China were 4351 yuan/ton and 4021 yuan/ton respectively, down 17 yuan/ton. In South China, they were 4320 yuan/ton and 3990 yuan/ton respectively, down 17 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices have been continuously falling, and the PG futures market continues to be weak and volatile. Although the price level is low, there is a lack of positive catalysts. Spot prices in various regions were stable yesterday, with moderate production and sales, no inventory pressure for sellers, and acceptable downstream market entry [1]. - Overseas supply remains abundant, and domestic arrivals are high. In the off - season, the demand for combustion continues to be weak, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid needs. The operating rate of downstream deep - processing plants has improved marginally recently, but the product profit situation has not been completely reversed, and the demand lacks the power for continuous growth [1]. Strategy - Single - side trading: Weak and volatile, pay attention to the bottom - building signals of the market. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2].

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-08 烧碱开工环比上升，库存持续累积 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5046元/吨（-5）；华东基差-176元/吨（-15）;华南基差-126元/吨（-15）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4870元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4920元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨（+113）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨（+27）；PVC出口利润5.3美元/吨（-4.7）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存34.5万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存44.8万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率77.83%（+3.41%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.55%（+7.31%）；PVC开工率77.75%（+4.49%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量85.4万吨（+5.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2413元/吨（-61）；山东32%液碱基差87元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（-20）；山东50%液碱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, prices are stable, with a slight increase in inventory and the market influenced by overall commodity sentiment [1][3] - For polysilicon, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure due to increased production and average consumption, and the market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies [4][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On August 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated, the 2511 main contract opened at 8680 yuan/ton and closed at 8655 yuan/ton, a change of 0.46% from the previous settlement [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, with the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon at 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton and 421 silicon at 9500 - 9900 yuan/ton [1] - The total social inventory of industrial silicon on August 7 was 54.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 tons, with the social delivery warehouse inventory increasing by 0.8 tons [1] - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 11800 - 12500 yuan/ton, and the domestic DMC market entered a game stage with rational transactions and a downward price center [2] Polysilicon - On August 7, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 declined, opening at 51290 yuan/ton and closing at 50110 yuan/ton, a 2.80% change from the previous day [4] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable, with N - type material at 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg and n - type granular silicon at 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, with polysilicon inventory at 23.30 (a 1.75% week - on - week change) and silicon wafer inventory at 19.11GW (a 5.29% week - on - week change) [4] - Polysilicon weekly output was 29400.00 tons (a 10.94% week - on - week change), and silicon wafer output was 12.02GW (a 9.27% week - on - week change) [4] Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell and Component - Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 yuan/piece [4] - The prices of various types of battery cells remained stable, such as the efficient PERC182 battery cell at 0.27 yuan/W [6] - The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained stable, such as the PERC182mm at 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7] Influencing Factors - Factors affecting the market include the resumption and new production capacity in the Northwest and Southwest, polysilicon and organic silicon enterprise start - up changes, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market is affected by disturbances in the mining end, and the market is volatile. Participants need to manage risks, and the market is expected to have a preliminary conclusion on domestic lithium mine approval next week [3] - The downstream procurement demand shows a warming trend, but the actual transaction is mainly for rigid demand, and downstream enterprises are still cautious [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 7, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,900 yuan/ton and closed at 72,300 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 5.36% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 766,669 lots, and the open interest was 289,832 lots (257,770 lots the previous day). The current basis is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,443 lots, a change of 1,420 lots from the previous trading day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 69,500 - 72,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 68,400 - 69,600 yuan/ton, both with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 6% lithium concentrate price is 750 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The procurement demand in the market shows a warming trend, but the actual transaction is mainly for rigid demand due to the strengthening basis, and downstream enterprises are still in a wait - and - see state [1] Production and Inventory - The weekly production increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons, with a large increase in the production from spodumene. The weekly inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons, and the downstream inventory increased significantly, with a certain transfer of inventory [2] Strategy - The lithium carbonate futures market is repeatedly affected by lithium mine approval issues. There is no official news yet, and it is expected that there will be a preliminary conclusion next week. The market may still be volatile, and participants need to manage risks [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]

流动性日报 | 2025-08-08 市场流动性概况 2025-08-07，股指板块成交5270.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.81%；持仓金额11346.96亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.52%；成交持仓比为46.12%。 国债板块成交3656.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.28%；持仓金额8527.51亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.56%；成交 持仓比为43.04%。 基本金属板块成交3762.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+16.62%；持仓金额4893.95亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.42%； 成交持仓比为101.90%。 贵金属板块成交2490.94亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.65%；持仓金额4537.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.03%；成交 持仓比为57.26%。 能源化工板块成交4608.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.98%；持仓金额4215.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.19%； 成交持仓比为86.12%。 农产品板块成交3508.27亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.90%；持仓金额5887.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.14%；成交 持仓比为50.05%。 黑色建材板块成交5448 ...