Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The main focus of precious metals is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rhythm. Multiple Fed officials are open to a shift to loose monetary policy, strongly supporting precious metal prices. If economic growth data resonates with the July US non-farm payrolls data, it may accelerate the Fed's monetary policy shift to a looser stance and further push up gold prices [8]. - The trading logic of silver is generally in sync with that of gold, with future loose expectations on the macro level as the main line, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply-demand fundamentals of silver. With the logic of the gold-silver ratio returning, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - Macro: Fed officials' statements indicate that the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy within the Fed is rising, which is expected to support precious metal prices. Geopolitical risk premium has a relatively low weight in precious metal pricing, and the short-term main line lies in the Fed's loose expectations and rhythm [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.80 yuan/gram and closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 781.96 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,104.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,182.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 372,060 lots, and the open interest was 373,376 lots. The night session closed at 9,180 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 6, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.22%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.53%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On August 6, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 249 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 336 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 239,517 lots, a change of -0.54% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,708 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 532,607 lots, a change of 17.04% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.8 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -706.17 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.35, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 90.05, a change of -0.41% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 29,226 kg, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 231,594 kg, a change of -14.47% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,764 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 15,690 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 8,950 yuan/kg and 9,450 yuan/kg [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]

FICC日报 | 2025-08-07 商品分板块。国内供给侧最敏感的是黑色板块和新能源金属。海外通胀预期受益较为显著的是能源和有色板块。 基本面来看。黑色板块仍受下游需求预期拖累，重点关注"反内卷"事实。有色板块供给受限仍未缓解，后续关注 关税落地对需求预期的影响。能源方面，短期地缘溢价告一段落，中期基本面供给偏宽松看待。OPEC+加速增产， 同意8月增产54.8万桶/日，高于预期。化工板块中，甲醇、PVC、烧碱、尿素等品种的"反内卷"空间也值得关注。 农产品短期并不存在天气扰动，波动空间相对有限。需要指出的是，7月本轮"反内卷"行情启动以来，随着市场情 绪降温，主要品种出现不同程度回撤，后续一方面围绕能否修复4月对等关税出台前的经济基本面博弈，另一方面 则关注"反内卷"的事实落地进展。 策略 商品和股指期货：工业品逢低多配。 风险 8月7日新关税生效，关注中国7月进出口数据 市场分析 市场再回归基本面验证阶段。7月30日政治局会议明部署下半年经济工作：对于宏观政策基调，会议强调"宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，维持"稳中有进"的基调，关 于反内卷，会议强 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-07 新增产能持续放量，供应压力增大 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7321元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨（-17），LL华北现货为7230 元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7050元/吨（+10），LL华北基差为-91元/吨（+32）， LL华东基差为-41元/吨（+2）， PP华东基差为-28元/吨（+27）。 市场要闻与重要数据 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.1%（+2.1%），PP开工率为76.9%（+0.0%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为292.5元/吨（+88.1），PP油制生产利润为-187.5元/吨（+88.1），PDH制PP生产利 润为302.7元/吨（-27.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-71.8元/吨（+2.4），PP进口利润为-506.2元/吨（-17.5），PP出口利润为30.3美元/吨（+2.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.6%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为41.1%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Both the strategies for the pig and egg sectors are rated as neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig market, the current reduction in pig spot volume has a greater impact on near - term contracts but is bearish for far - term contracts. The supply is likely to continue increasing in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change. The data of reproductive sows from anti - involution culling may be realized in the second half of next year [2] - For the egg market, schools have concentrated stocking demand for the start of the semester in early September. As it gradually enters the seasonal consumption peak season, the increasing consumption demand will support the rise of egg prices. However, the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market should be closely monitored [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 14,010 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.90% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The price of ternary live pigs in Henan was 13.96 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 14.09 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.38 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on August 6: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.78, up 0.26 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.93, up 0.30 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.67 yuan/kg, up 1.7%; beef was 64.47 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 59.73 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; eggs were 7.54 yuan/kg, down 0.8%; white - striped chickens were 17.40 yuan/kg, down 0.5% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,378 yuan/500 kilograms, up 48 yuan or 1.44% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.80 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.62 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On August 6, 2025, the production - link inventory was 0.89 days, unchanged from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, up 0.02 days or 1.72% [3]

尿素日报 | 2025-08-07 交投气氛转弱，尿素震荡走低 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-06，尿素主力收盘1750元/吨（-22）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1790 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：40 元/吨（+32）；河南基差：40元/吨（+32）；江苏基差：40元/吨（+22）；尿素生产利润260元/吨（+10），出口利润 955元/吨（-21）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2025-08-06，企业产能利用率83.60%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为88.76 万吨（-2.97），港口样本 库存量为49.30 万吨（-5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-08-06，复合肥产能利用率38.68%（+5.10%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.50%（-1.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.53日（+0.41）。 前期期货市场交易印度尿素高价招标以及出口相关规定放松，市场气氛有所转弱，尿素震荡走低。尿素日均产量 处于较高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The global visible copper inventory has increased, and downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. The short - term macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, it is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 6, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,170 yuan/ton and closed at 78,280 yuan/ton, a - 0.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the morning, spot copper holders lowered the premium. Mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and some brands dropped to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton. Good copper was at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources had a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream procurement, and the procurement and sales sentiment indexes increased. Spot merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to take profits [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy, providing macro - level support for copper prices. Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which may clear geopolitical risks and boost copper prices [3] - **Mine End**: FireFly Metals acquired the Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada in 2023 for 65 million Australian dollars. After the acquisition, it increased drilling, expanding the resource by 20 million tons to 60 million tons with a copper equivalent of about 3% [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The copper market needs to digest the impact of US tariff policies. LME copper prices declined due to inventory increases. High tariffs reduce the expected increase in copper supply outside the US, providing support for prices. Supply disruptions in Chile, such as the accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, also affect production. Chile's copper exports to China rebounded in July [4] - **Consumption**: Copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. Resource nationalism poses risks to new supply, and about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity is needed by 2035 to meet demand [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 14,275 tons to 156,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,579 tons to 20,346 tons. On August 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 135,900 tons, a change of 16,600 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

FICC日报 | 2025-08-07 两融余额破两万亿元，股指延续上行 市场分析 国内维持宽松基调。国内方面，央行公布各项工具流动性投放情况显示，7月合计实现净投放2365亿元，较上月少 4195亿元，"适度宽松"的政策基调传递积极信号。海外方面，特朗普签署行政命令，对来自印度的商品加征25%的 额外关税，印度面临的总关税税率达到50%，以回应印度继续"直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油"，新加的25%关税将在 21天后生效，此前首轮25%关税将于本周四生效。特朗普还称，将对芯片和半导体加征约100%的关税，如果在美 国建厂，将无需缴纳关税。 股指上行。现货市场，A股三大指数继续上行，上证指数涨0.45%收于3633.99点，逼近年内高点，创业板指涨0.66%。 行业方面，板块指数涨多跌少，国防军工、机械设备、煤炭行业领涨，医药生物、商贸零售、建筑材料行业跌幅 居前。当日沪深两市成交金额超1.7万亿元。杠杆资金加速进场，两融余额重新站上两万亿，为2015年7月以来首次。 海外市场，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨1.21%报21169.42点。 IM增仓。期货市场，基差方面，If、IC、IM当月合约的基差回升。成交持仓方 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red Dates: Neutral Bullish [9] Core Views - Apple: The market trading atmosphere is general, the inventory removal speed is slow, the price is gradually polarized, and the new - season fruit bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season. The follow - up needs to focus on various factors such as the price trend of early - maturing fruits and the sales of competing fruits [2][3] - Red Dates: The second and third batches of flowers in the main production areas have good fruit setting, and the reduction in production is less than expected. The market has different views on the new - season output, and attention should be paid to weather changes and market inventory [7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract was 7,915 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract was 10,980 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Market Analysis Apple - The futures price rose. The new - season fruit bagging was completed, and the bagging quantity was slightly lower than the previous season, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Fuji. The inventory removal of Fuji in production and sales areas was slow, the price was polarized, and the overall price decreased. The inventory was at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. Competing fruits had a strong substitution effect, and the price of early - maturing fruits was weak [3] Red Dates - The futures price rose. The second and third batches of flowers in the production areas had good fruit setting, and the reduction in production was less than expected. The market had different views on the new - season output. The total inventory in the sales areas was at a high level in recent years, and the price of high - quality goods rose [8] Strategies Apple - Maintain a neutral attitude. If terminal consumption remains weak, it is more likely that the spot price will remain stable and weak [4] Red Dates - Be neutral and bullish. The news from the production areas has a greater impact on the futures market. The market may run strongly in the future, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [9]

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the cotton, sugar, and pulp sectors are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted in the short - term and will face new pressure in the fourth quarter with new cotton listing [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and terminal demand improvement is limited. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnamese textile enterprises have low interest in raw material procurement, and some ring - spinning factories plan to reduce the operating rate [1] Market Analysis - Globally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient, and the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. US cotton has high sown area, improved drought, and weak export contracts [2] - Domestically, commercial inventory is decreasing fast, but new cotton has a strong yield - increasing expectation. Terminal demand is weak, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,683 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - As of August 1, 2025, the sugarcane planting area in India was about 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 0.164 million hectares compared to the same period last year. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International raw sugar is under pressure due to Brazil's accelerated crushing in the first half of July and optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand [4] - Domestically, domestic sugar sales progress is fast, but import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space. There may be a tight - inventory situation in the fourth quarter, but new - season production increase will bring downward pressure [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term sugar futures are expected to fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices are expected to decline [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Russian softwood pulp price was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only sporadic price increases [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. Paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious, and terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8]