';<=>?@ABCDE2025-06-12 5 ! CPI "#$%&'($%)* ——!"#$%&'(! !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 11 日晚美国劳工部公布 5 月通胀数字。其中： 同比：CPI+2.4%，预期+2.5%，前值+2.3%；核心 CPI+2.8%，预期+2.9%，前值+2.8%。 环比：CPI+0.1%，预期+0.2%，前值+0.2%；核心 CPI+0.1%，预期+0.3%，前值+0.2%。 &'"( ■ 5 ! CPI "#$%&' 5 月 CPI 同比上升 2.4%，环比上涨 0.1%，核心 CPI 同比为 2.8%，环比仅涨 0.1%，其中 核心CPI年化增速创2021年3月以来最低。通胀低于预期主要受服装等价格下跌推动， 能源价格同比跌 3.5%，租金同比上涨 3.8%，是主要上行因素之一。食品价格同比上升 2.9%，但医疗、交通等分项环比涨幅较小甚至下降，表明在关税预期压力下，企业短 期仍在吸 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-12 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN244美元/吨(环比变动+3.40美元/吨）。近期国内外PX负荷整体提升，一方面是集中检修 期陆续结束，另一方面也与利润修复有关。随着供应恢复，PXN有所回落，不过目前现货市场货源仍较紧张，关 注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展，PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 218 元/吨(环比变动+1元/吨），PTA现货加工费423元/吨（环比变动+1元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费365元/吨（环比变动+5元/吨），PTA装置逐步重启下供应趋于宽松，6月整体平衡小幅去库，基本 面尚可，持续去库下现货市场流通性偏紧，但同时聚酯减产情绪强烈，影响需求预期，关注成本和需求支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.1%（环比-0.6%），5月下旬以来终端订单再度转弱，坯布重新累库，下游织造、加弹开 工开始小幅回落，当前以消耗库存为主，原料补库意愿不强。近期聚酯负荷高位下滑，低利润下各品种陆续减产， 淡季下需求预期偏弱。 PF方面，现货生产利润29元/吨（环比+22元/吨）。终端需求转弱下，下游纱线库存增加。在短纤工厂减产及减部 分合约等操作下，市场低位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report Currently, downstream consumption is declining due to holiday effects, and the short - term operating rates of copper products and wire and cable may still face pressure. However, the supply at the mine end is still highly disrupted. The continuously low TC price and the strong performance of silver drive up the copper price. Therefore, for copper, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On June 11, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,150 yuan/ton and closed at 79,290 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,740 yuan/ton and closed at 78,570 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] Spot Situation Near the delivery date, the monthly spread did not improve significantly. Sellers quoted prices above par and were reluctant to sell at a discount. The price difference between brands of flat - water copper converged. The procurement and sales sentiment improved. In the latter half of the week, the supply of flat - water copper was not expected to be loose. Downstream buyers pressured prices due to high copper prices, while sellers were reluctant to sell below par. Some Russian copper was expected to arrive at the end of the week, and downstream buyers were likely to purchase at low prices [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: US May CPI data were all lower than expected, with core CPI only rising 0.1%. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US military bases in the region if the nuclear negotiations failed. The possibility of the sixth - round Iran - US nuclear negotiations over the weekend was decreasing. The EU hoped to extend the trade negotiation time, and the Trump administration was willing to extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if there was "sincerity" in the negotiations [3] - **Mine End**: An American mining project in Nevada attracted the attention of the US Export - Import Bank, which intended to provide $896 million to support a company in building a copper - molybdenum mine. In April 2025, Codelco's copper production increased by 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons; Escondida's copper production increased by 31% year - on - year to 128,400 tons; Collahuasi's copper production decreased by 13.5% year - on - year to 36,600 tons [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In May, LME's Russian copper inventory decreased by 27,350 tons, including 14,800 tons of "Class 2" Russian copper. The overall LME copper market inventory dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years [5] - **Consumption**: From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, 1.03 percentage points lower than the previous week and 2.27 percentage points lower than market expectations. The copper cable industry's operating rate was 76.08%, down 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. Some enterprises' new orders decreased by about 10% month - on - month. From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 119,450 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, a change of 700 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - For the soybean meal industry, with a large influx of Brazilian soybeans, domestic oil - mill operating rates have risen rapidly, and soybean meal inventory has increased from a low level. The overall supply of soybeans remains abundant, and future prices will be affected by factors such as Brazilian price premiums, US soybean planting area weather, and policy changes [2] - For the corn industry, on the domestic supply side, the end of grassroots surplus grain and the need to make room for wheat storage have increased supply during the wheat harvest. The demand side shows low operating rates in deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises mainly fulfilling previous orders. Attention should be paid to the listing and substitution of new - season wheat [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3047 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.53%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2638 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.34%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2850 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintained its forecasts for Brazil's 2025 soybean production, exports, and processing but lowered the average export prices of soybeans and soybean oil. The 2025 Brazilian soybean export average price was expected to be 405 US dollars/ton, 10 US dollars/ton lower than the previous month's forecast; the soybean oil export average price was expected to be 1015 US dollars/ton, 35 US dollars/ton lower [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - With the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans, domestic oil - mill operating rates have increased rapidly, and soybean meal inventory has risen from a low level. The overall supply of soybeans remains abundant, and future prices will be affected by Brazilian price premiums, US soybean planting area weather, and policy changes [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2374 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2709 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.07%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton [3] - Market News: As of the week ending June 5, the US wheat export inspection volume was 291,000 tons, a 47% week - on - week and 18% year - on - year decrease. The USDA predicted that the 2025/26 US wheat export target was 2.177 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the domestic supply side, the end of grassroots surplus grain and the need to make room for wheat storage have increased supply during the wheat harvest. The demand side shows low operating rates in deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises mainly fulfilling previous orders. Attention should be paid to the listing and substitution of new - season wheat [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.07% at 2,912 yuan/ton while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.17% at 3,563 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices showed a volatile and strong trend after the OPEC meeting. Short - term fundamentals are okay with some market support, but there is pressure on the balance sheet to turn into surplus in the medium term, so there is resistance above after continuous rebounds [1] - The overall market contradiction of fuel oil is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads have continuously declined recently. With summer approaching, power generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is rising, and Egypt's fuel oil imports continue to grow. However, high cracking spreads have suppressed refinery demand, and the market will face pressure after power generation demand falls [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure with low bonded port inventories. But after the domestic refinery maintenance season ends, domestic production is expected to rise, and the volume of arbitrage cargoes from the West in June is also expected to increase. In the medium term, it still faces the contradiction of being replaced in the ship - fuel demand share [2] 3) Strategy Summary - High - sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Cross - variety: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting FU cracking spreads (FU - SC or FU - Brent) on rallies. Short - term support is strong, so try to short at high levels [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping industry is experiencing price fluctuations and supply - demand imbalances. In June, the US - bound freight rates soared due to supply - demand mismatch, but the US - West rates may have peaked. The European - bound freight rates in June also showed an upward trend, with an expected price increase in July and August. The 06 contract of the container shipping index is supported by the expected delivery settlement price, and there is still a price increase expectation for the European - bound freight in August [3][5]. - The container shipping market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal patterns. Geopolitical tensions may impact shipping routes, and the supply - demand relationship is adjusted by carriers' capacity deployment. The traditional peak season in August may lead to price increases [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes for routes from Shanghai to Rotterdam, GDNASK, etc. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 25 - week price is 1700/2840, and HPL's 7 - month first - half shipping schedule quote is 2635/4435 [1]. - **Price Increases**: Some shipping companies announced price increases in the second half of June. MSC's second - half - of - June price increase letter shows a price of 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first half of June [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Impact - **Geopolitical Factor**: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels, which may lead to potential maritime and air blockades [3]. - **Supply - Demand Mismatch in US Routes**: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the trans - Pacific east - bound routes. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, the demand on Sino - US routes increased rapidly, causing a sharp rise in freight rates. Currently, carriers are restoring capacity, and the capacity on Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, the US - West freight rates may have peaked [3]. 3.3 European Route Capacity - The capacity pressure on European routes decreased in June. The average weekly capacity of Shanghai - European routes in the remaining three weeks of June is about 280,600 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in July is 279,600 TEU. There are also some blank sailings in June and July [4]. 3.4 Contract and Price Expectations - The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase letter. As the delivery deadline approaches, the 06 contract will gradually return to "real - world" trading. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is about 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is the traditional peak season, and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August at the beginning of June and July. The 2025 European - bound freight rate peak time is unclear, and the 8 - month contract has a fierce game between expectation and reality. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [5][6]. 3.5 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU, and 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [7]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, it is the off - season for consumption, leading to poor downstream enterprise operations. Some smelting enterprises are resuming production, and it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.55 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead price in different regions also remained stable, and the lead scrap price was unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 11, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,850 yuan/ton, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 21,724 lots, a decrease of 14,490 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 43,989 lots, an increase of 21 lots. The night - session closing price was 16,855 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase [1] Spot Market Transaction - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged. In Henan, the transaction was light; in Hunan, some enterprises raised their quotes due to inventory decline and showed a reluctance to sell. The spot market transactions showed significant differences, with some demand shifting to the primary lead market, and downstream enterprises preferred to pick up goods directly from smelters [2] Inventory - On June 11, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 273,525 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Put it on hold [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [5] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [5] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread [5] Core Viewpoints - The price of electrolytic aluminum is difficult to fall due to low social inventory and no obvious inventory accumulation trend, but the sustainability of consumption needs attention, and factors such as social inventory changes, Sino-US negotiations, and overseas squeezing risks should be monitored [4] - The alumina spot price has declined, the basis has narrowed, the supply is expected to increase, and the cost is expected to be stable, with an overall supply surplus expectation [4] - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price is firm [4] Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On June 11, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was -80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Futures - On June 11, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,005 yuan/ton, closed at 20,250 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton or 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 198,643 lots, an increase of 49,434 lots, and an open interest of 194,628 lots, an increase of 10,323 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 477,000 tons [2] - As of June 11, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 357,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot - On June 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,270 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On June 11, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,887 yuan/ton, closed at 2,895 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 327,631 lots, a decrease of 26,554 lots, and an open interest of 293,094 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy - The price of scrap aluminum was stable at 19,400 yuan/ton, and the AD2511 - AL2511 contract spread was -535 yuan/ton [4] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply side: Rio Tinto's Tomago faces a shutdown crisis due to energy prices [4] - Demand side: Consumption remains strong, LME and domestic spot premiums are rising, apparent consumption growth rate is still positive year-on-year, and inventory is expected to decline slightly in June [4] - Risk factors: Concerns about the sustainability of consumption, the approaching traditional domestic consumption off - season, and potential marginal decline in overseas demand [4] Alumina - Supply side: Good industry profits, increased resumption of production enthusiasm, signs of bottoming out and recovery in production and inventory [4] - Cost side: Disturbance in Guinea's ore supply, short - term support for ore prices, but limited price increase space, and no expected alumina production cut due to ore shortage [4] Aluminum Alloy - Supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and prices are firm [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel**: The strategy is to maintain a "sideways" stance. This includes a neutral view on single - sided trades, with no recommendations for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The strategy is "sideways with a downward bias" for single - sided trades, and no suggestions for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, the strategy is "sideways"; for coke, it's "sideways with a downward bias". There are no recommendations for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [6]. - **Steam Coal**: No investment strategy is provided [7]. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The overall steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction. With low raw material prices, steel mills have decent profits. As the off - season approaches, the production and apparent demand of building materials are gradually declining, and inventory is slightly decreasing, which supports prices. Plates maintain a pattern of strong supply and demand, and good inventory reduction performance supports plate prices. Due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market, steel exports are resilient, and overall steel prices remain stable. Attention should be paid to hot metal production and the implementation of supply - side policies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Currently, iron ore supply continues to increase, while demand slightly decreases. Hot metal production remains at a relatively high level over the years, and inventory is slightly decreasing, with total inventory at a medium level. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. Be cautious of price rebounds due to unexpectedly strong off - season demand, and continuously monitor hot metal production and iron ore inventory changes during the off - season [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment for coking coal and coke is cautious, with prices moving sideways. For coking coal, factors such as safety inspections and policy adjustments have increased the expectation of supply contraction, but there are still pressures from high inventory and weakening marginal demand. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts in the spot market and considering the consumption off - season, inventory is relatively high, and the overall supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to hot metal production and coke supply changes [5][6]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply in the production areas has contracted, and short - term coal prices are moving sideways. Frequent environmental and safety inspections have affected coal washing plants, and some coal mines have been shut down for rectification. Chemical industries maintain rigid demand, but small and medium - sized traders have low purchasing enthusiasm. In the port market, demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small. In the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,108 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the futures market was dull, and the spot market transactions were average, with 104,000 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel is in a continuous inventory reduction state. Low raw material prices lead to good profits for steel mills. As the off - season approaches, building material production and demand decline, and inventory decreases slightly, supporting prices. Plates have strong supply and demand, and good inventory reduction supports prices. Low domestic prices make steel exports resilient [1]. - **Strategy**: Single - sided trades are expected to move sideways, with no recommendations for other types of trades [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: As of yesterday's close, the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports rose slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills mainly replenished inventory as needed. The total iron ore transactions at major ports nationwide were 787,000 tons, a 17.07% decrease from the previous day; the total forward - looking spot transactions were 1.415 million tons (11 transactions), a 14.96% decrease from the previous day (mine transactions were 820,000 tons) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, iron ore supply is increasing, demand is slightly decreasing, hot metal production is relatively high, inventory is slightly decreasing, and total inventory is at a medium level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Be cautious of price rebounds during the off - season [3]. - **Strategy**: Single - sided trades are expected to move sideways with a downward bias, with no recommendations for other types of trades [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures moved sideways. For coke, traders mainly reduced inventory, and steel mills continued to control raw material procurement. Recently, some enterprises' supply has decreased due to environmental inspections and inventory pressure. For coking coal, frequent safety inspections in the main production areas during the safety month have reduced supply. Coking enterprises mainly purchase raw coal as needed, and the market is mostly in a wait - and - see mode. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal is at a low level [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, supply contraction expectations are rising, but high inventory and weakening demand pressures remain. For coke, after price cuts and in the off - season, inventory is relatively high, and supply is loose [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to move sideways, while coke is expected to move sideways with a downward bias. No recommendations for other types of trades [6]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are moving sideways. Frequent environmental and safety inspections have affected coal washing plants, and some coal mines have been shut down. Chemical industries maintain rigid demand, but small and medium - sized traders have low purchasing enthusiasm. In the port market, demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small. The price difference between domestic and imported low - calorie coal has widened [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In the short - term, coal price support from demand is insufficient, and with the rainy season, the substitution effect of hydropower is strengthening. In the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. - **Strategy**: No investment strategy is provided [7].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-12 需求表现一般，裂解价差回落 市场分析 1、6月11日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3461元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌37元/吨，跌幅 1.06%；持仓221869手，环比上涨5919手，成交199501手，环比下降21144手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3800—4086元/吨；山东，3500—3950元/吨；华南，3350—3500元/吨； 华东，3600—3670元/吨。 原油价格延续震荡偏强走势，沥青成本端支撑稳固。昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，其余地区沥 青现货价格以持稳为主。盘面出现一定回调，近日走势弱于原油，裂解价差下跌。就沥青自身基本面而言，供需 两弱格局大体延续，但供应出现一定边际上的增量，大型炼厂开工率有所提升。相比之下，沥青刚性需求总体表 现欠佳，尤其南方地区进入梅雨季节，频繁降雨天气导致道路施工受阻，抑制沥青终端消费，对市场情绪存在一 定消极影响。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 20 ...