Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - It is necessary to do a good job in pre - holiday risk management. During the National Day holiday, there are risks of pre - holiday adjustments in the stock index and pre - holiday depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, while there are opportunities in certain commodity sectors after the holiday. The domestic situation shows a greater gap between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the correction of the current off - peak season expectation. The inflation outlook in the US is clearer, and the Fed has restarted the interest rate cut cycle. Different commodity sectors have different characteristics and investment opportunities [1]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk and Policy Expectations**: From October 1st to 8th is the National Day holiday in China, with 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index may adjust before the holiday and rise after it, and the RMB exchange rate may depreciate before the holiday and recover after it. After the holiday, there may be opportunities in commodity sectors such as coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials. The domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weak industrial, investment, and consumption data, and increased external tariff pressure. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. The central bank also proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation. Six departments issued a steady - growth plan for the machinery industry, aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% from 2025 - 2026. The scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan [1]. - **US Economic Situation**: In August, the US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, the new order improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, the PPI growth slowed down, and the new non - farm employment and unemployment rate were worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The retail sales and new home sales increased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the federal funds rate target range is now 4.00% - 4.25%. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [1]. - **Commodity Analysis**: The black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side; precious metals and agricultural products can be concerned due to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be focused on. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has increased recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. In the chemical industry, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short - term. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Strategy - Allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips for commodities and stock index futures [2]. To - do News - The six - department plan aims for the machinery industry to achieve an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% from 2025 - 2026 and break through 10 trillion yuan in revenue. The NDRC will continue to implement macro - policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. On September 29th, the A - share market rose, and the financial stocks such as securities firms exploded. The risk of a US government shutdown is high, and the EU will resume sanctions on Iran. Spot gold reached a new high, standing at $3,820 per ounce with a 1.6% intraday increase [4]. Macro - economy No detailed analysis provided, only some relevant charts are mentioned, including the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, etc. [5][7][10] Interest Rates No detailed analysis provided, only some relevant charts are mentioned, including the 10Y and 2Y China - US Treasury bond spreads, the US dollar exchange rate, etc. [5][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Big funds drive up the financial sector, making the market prone to rising and difficult to fall. New news about DeepSeek will push the technology sector's market to spread and extend to the software application end, and the market is expected to continue in October [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the Political Bureau meeting emphasized high - quality development in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including new development concepts, reform, opening - up, and risk prevention. Overseas, Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on overseas - made movies and furniture from non - US countries [1] - In the spot market, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.9% to 3862.53 and the ChiNext Index rising 2.74%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.1 trillion yuan. The scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan. Overseas, US major indices also rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.48% [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded rapidly, and the IF and IH contracts were at a premium. Both trading volume and open interest increased [2] Strategy - Big funds drive the financial sector up, and the market is likely to keep rising. New news of DeepSeek will expand the technology sector's market to software applications, and the market is expected to continue in October [3] Macro - economic Charts - Include charts on the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [5][6][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, such as the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.05%, etc. Also include charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balance [5][6][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - Provide data on the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), basis, and inter - delivery spreads. For example, the trading volume and open interest of all contracts increased, and the basis of each contract changed [5][6][17]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for the machinery industry to maintain a stable and positive development trend from 2025 to 2026, with an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% and revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will focus on the science - technology and AI industries, formulating development guidelines for smart terminals and agents, opening up industry scenarios, and providing computing power subsidies. A new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices have rebounded significantly [2]. - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded [2]. Midstream - Chemical: The polyester operating rate is at a medium level [3]. - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable [3]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in second - tier cities have slightly rebounded [4]. - Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 2. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 9/29 | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.4 yuan/kg | - 4.77% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 9248.0 yuan/ton | 3.08% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14982.5 yuan/ton | - 1.17% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 19.3 yuan/kg | - 1.28% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | 82271.7 yuan/ton | 2.54% | | | Spot price of zinc | 21618.0 yuan/ton | - 1.48% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 20700.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | | Spot price of nickel | 122050.0 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16856.3 yuan/ton | - 1.14% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of rebar | 3176.0 yuan/ton | 0.27% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 806.7 yuan/ton | - 1.51% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3357.5 yuan/ton | - 1.54% | | | Spot price of glass | 15.4 yuan/square meter | 7.90% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14775.0 yuan/ton | - 0.73% | | | China Plastic City price index | 790.0 | - 0.17% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 65.7 dollars/barrel | 5.32% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 69.2 dollars/barrel | 4.82% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3828.0 yuan/ton | 0.90% | | | Coal price | 793.0 yuan/ton | 1.02% | | | Spot price of PTA | 4612.5 yuan/ton | - 0.30% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 7345.0 yuan/ton | - 0.14% | | | Spot price of urea | 1621.3 yuan/ton | - 2.04% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | National cement price index | 135.1 | 0.63% | | | Building materials composite index | 113.3 points | - 1.19% | | | National concrete price index | 91.7 points | - 0.01% | [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both gold and silver is cautiously bullish [8][9] Core Viewpoints - The market tends to price in consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. With the expectation of monetary easing and risk - aversion sentiment due to the potential U.S. federal government shutdown, gold prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation. The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 860 yuan/gram and 880 yuan/gram [8] - Silver shares the same macro - level logic as gold. The easing cycle promotes the recovery of silver's industrial demand, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10500 yuan/kilogram and 11500 yuan/kilogram [10] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold - silver ratio at high levels, and the option strategy is to postpone [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, Fed's Williams supported the interest rate cut at the last meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, and estimated the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%. Musalem is open to future rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters [1] - Regarding tariffs, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the U.S. and large tariffs on countries that do not manufacture furniture in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - On the fiscal front, U.S. Senate Republicans will vote again on Tuesday on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, while Democrats rejected the short - term temporary spending bill [1] - Geopolitically, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting. Trump said Netanyahu accepted his Gaza peace plan, which could end the war immediately if both sides agree, and requires Gaza to be temporarily governed by a non - political Palestinian technical bureaucracy [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 857.70 yuan/gram and closed at 866.52 yuan/gram, a 1.22% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 866.88 yuan/gram and closed at 870.42 yuan/gram, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 10651.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10939.00 yuan/kilogram, a 2.89% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1527083 lots, and the open interest was 508967 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10883 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10907 yuan/kilogram, a 0.29% decrease from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 29, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.521%, up 0.41 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 86 lots and short positions decreased by 108 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 471378 lots, a 4.54% decrease from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2294694 lots, a 45.70% increase from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,005.72 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,521 tons, an increase of 159 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 13.84 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1233.70 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 79.21, a 1.93% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.31, a 0.23% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 61916 kilograms, a 5.38% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 538718 kilograms, a 43.68% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 32380 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 12450 kilograms [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The port experienced a decent de - stocking as the arrival was lower than expected and downstream pre - holiday pick - up was good, but the absolute inventory is still high. The future change mainly depends on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. The port's lower support relies on the window for re - flowing to the inland. - In the inland, the northwest prices remain strong. With mainstream CTO factories continuing to purchase at the beginning of the week and low inventory, the inland is stronger than the port. Traditional downstream has mixed performances, and coal - based methanol production restart is slow, waiting for a further increase in October [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts about methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as MA2601 - MA2605, MA2605 - MA2609, and MA2609 - MA2601 [7][23]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - It shows charts related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [27][36]. III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Charts display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated). The port total inventory is 1492190 tons (- 65580), and the inland factory inventory is 319940 tons (- 20540) [2][38]. IV. Regional Price Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 43 yuan/ton (- 5) [2][42]. V. Traditional Downstream Profit - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][61]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Inter - period: Go long on MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - Cross - variety: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. There is uncertainty about the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October [4]. - The December contract is still far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases in November. There are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. The trading rhythm involves first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this process until delivery [6]. - The strategy suggests going short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expecting the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations and price - increase notices. For example, Maersk's WEEK42 quotation for Shanghai - Rotterdam has risen to 1800 US dollars/FEU, HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of October is 600 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the first half, and MSC has issued a price - increase notice for the second half of October [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If both sides accept, the two - year conflict will end immediately, and Israel will withdraw troops in stages [2]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European basic ports from China is 263,900 TEU, with 17 blank sailings. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 304,000 TEU, with 3 blank sailings and 3 TBNs [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **October Contract**: The central value of the freight rate in the first half of October has continued to decline to around 1400 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be around 1000 points, and the SCFIS on October 20th is estimated to be similar. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week increases by 500 US dollars/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately 1400/1500/1900 US dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price - support fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4][5]. - **December Contract**: With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping volume remains high, and shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, there are risks such as weak US demand. The trading rhythm first involves the price - increase expectation and then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice [6]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 69,419 lots, and the daily trading volume is 33,930 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1667.00, EC2604 at 1253.00, etc. [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the SCFI for Shanghai - Europe is 971 US dollars/TEU, for Shanghai - US West is 1460 US dollars/FEU, and for Shanghai - US East is 22385 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1120.49 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 921.25 points [7]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 28, 2025, 201 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU. Among them, 63 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 948,300 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expect the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminum: Long the near - term contract and short the far - term contract [9] Group 2: Core Views - The macro environment at home and abroad remains positive. The domestic 15th Five - Year Plan meeting may implement new policy financial tools, while overseas policies are still hawkish overall. There is no need to be pessimistic about aluminum prices, and consumption in the fourth quarter at home and abroad is expected to be positive [6]. - For electrolytic aluminum, pre - holiday restocking has led to a continuous decline in social inventory. The supply is basically stable, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering. Although the social inventory situation is mediocre, the absolute value is still relatively low, which is not likely to cause a negative impact [6]. - For alumina, the supply is still in surplus, and the opening of the import window has exacerbated the domestic surplus situation. The social inventory is rapidly accumulating. The cost side is in a state of game, and policy disturbances in Guinea in the next two months need to be vigilant. Although the current price is close to the marginal high - cash cost and facing losses, the downside space is limited under the low - valuation background [6][7]. - For aluminum alloy, downstream consumption is recovering, but the supply is still in surplus, and the overall social inventory is relatively high. The absolute price is subject to many macro disturbances, which is not conducive to the seasonal convergence of the price difference with aluminum ingots [8]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Data Aluminum Spot - On September 29, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was - 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 29, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,755 yuan/ton, closed at 20,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,770 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,660 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 132,925 lots, and the open interest was 203,858 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 59,747 tons, a decrease of 3,483 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 515,600 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,200 tons [4]. Alumina - On September 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,935 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,895 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,965 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,145 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,150 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. - The main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,898 yuan/ton, closed at 2,904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,926 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,862 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 356,985 lots, and the open interest was 292,517 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - On September 29, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,000 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,200 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,400 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,323 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 177 yuan/ton [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall trading atmosphere in the asphalt market is dull, with the market showing a narrow upward trend. The current market supply is relatively abundant, while demand is weak. Most regions have a flat trading atmosphere, but there are signs of rush - work in some terminal projects in the southern region. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, international oil prices may fluctuate significantly during the National Day holiday, which may disrupt the post - holiday BU market. It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday. The strategy for the asphalt market is to expect a sideways movement and maintain a light position before the holiday [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 29, the closing price of the main BU2511 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,466 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 132,865 lots, a decrease of 25,763 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 152,121 lots, a decrease of 57,958 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast region, 3,756 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong region, 3,450 - 3,720 yuan/ton; South China region, 3,500 - 3,550 yuan/ton; East China region, 3,510 - 3,600 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in the North China market continued to decline slightly, while those in the South China and Sichuan - Chongqing markets continued to rise. The prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways movement, maintain a light position before the holiday. - Inter - delivery spread: No strategy. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy. - Futures - cash: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [2]. Figures The report includes figures showing various aspects of the asphalt market, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production volume in different regions, consumption in different sectors (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and inventory levels (refinery and social inventory) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both apples and red dates is neutral [3][7] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current inventory level is low, providing price support at the bottom. High - quality new - season apples have relatively high prices, which affects the sales of inventory apples. Short - term prices are expected to remain stable [3] - For red dates, if the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend may continue. Otherwise, the futures price will face a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support [7] Market News and Important Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8486 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10915 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan/ton or 3.28% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price rose slightly yesterday, while the mainstream apple prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable. New - season late Fuji and early - picked Fuji had active transactions. The double - festival stocking entered the later stage last week, and late Fuji in the east and west entered the bag - removing period. The inventory apples in Shandong had slow sales, and the early - picked Fuji in the west was affected by rain, with a shorter high - grade acquisition period [2] Red Dates - The red date futures price dropped significantly yesterday, and the price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei remained stable. The procurement by merchants in the sales areas was cautious, and inventory removal was slow. The 2024 production season had large production and high inventory but poor quality. The new - season production is expected to decrease, and the market has differences in fruit quality [6] Strategy Apples - The strategy is neutral. With the low inventory level, the price has bottom support, and short - term prices are expected to be stable [3] Red Dates - The strategy is neutral. The price trend depends on whether the production and quality meet expectations [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways to bearish [2] - Iron ore: Sideways to bearish [5] - Coking coal: Sideways [8] - Coke: Sideways [8] - Thermal coal: No strategy provided [10] Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward. The inventory pressure will increase after the pre - holiday restocking ends, and supply control is needed later [1]. - Iron ore shipments have slightly rebounded, and the price is oscillating downward. It shows a situation of strong supply and demand in the short term, and the price will remain range - bound [3][4]. - The double - coking market has strong risk - aversion sentiment and is oscillating. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, while the demand for coke remains resilient [6][8]. - The thermal coal market has intensified wait - and - see sentiment, and the coal price in the production area is running weakly. The price will be under pressure in the short term [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3097 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3289 yuan/ton. The national urban inventory of building materials was 491.96 million tons, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease; the national urban inventory of hot - rolled coils was 221.74 million tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The domestic macro - policy is in a wait - and - see period. Steel inventory has been accumulating, weaker than seasonal performance. After the pre - holiday restocking, the inventory pressure of finished products will increase. Attention should be paid to steel consumption after the National Day holiday, and supply suppression is needed to relieve the inventory pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. The total cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 584,000 tons, a 46.00% week - on - week increase; the cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 1.1 million tons, a 110% week - on - week increase. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total shipment volume of 347.54 million tons, a 4.5% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 236.05 million tons, an 11.8% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this week, with strong shipment resilience. The arrival volume increased rapidly. The demand for iron ore is resilient as steel mills have good profits and no intention to cut production actively. The port inventory increased slightly, and the floating inventory decreased. The steel mill's iron ore inventory increased seasonally and is at a high level in the same period. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. The price will remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and coal price changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for other aspects [5]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The double - coking futures oscillated weakly throughout the day. The main contracts of coking coal and coke both fell, with declines of 4.98% and 4.16% respectively. The price of imported coal fell with the disk, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the holiday approaches, speculative demand has declined, and some funds have strong risk - aversion sentiment. For coking coal, supply is relatively loose, and demand from downstream coking enterprises is mainly for rigid needs. For coke, the daily output has decreased, and downstream steel mills still have relatively high production enthusiasm, and the consumption demand is resilient [8]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke, and no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [8]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the market is running weakly as the holiday approaches. The prices of most coal mines are under pressure to decline. In the port area, the market sentiment is average, and the transaction price has slightly decreased. The price of imported coal is stable, and the trading activity has decreased [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the double - festival holiday approaches, the wait - and - see sentiment in the market has intensified. The price will oscillate in the short term, and the supply is expected to remain loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [9]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [10]