Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious and slightly bullish stance on PX, PTA, PF, and PR. However, due to fundamental pressures, the upside potential of the 01 contract may be limited. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the 05 contract. [4] - For PX, China's PX load has returned to a relatively high level. Supported by polyester production, PXN has support, but its upside space is restricted by high PX load and capacity expansion of some units. The focus is on the gasoline blending situation. [4] - Regarding TA, there are many maintenance plans in November, so the inventory accumulation pressure is not significant. But after December, as demand weakens, the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge. The market has abundant spot supply, limiting the upside of the 01 contract. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. [4] - For PF, the load is high, factory inventories have been reduced to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support. Processing fees are expected to remain stable. [4] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed significantly. Maintenance continues, but the off - season demand is average. It is expected that the spot processing fees of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. [4] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [8][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes figures on PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits. [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report shows figures on toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits. [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It provides figures on PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX load in China and Asia. [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA's warehouse receipt inventory, PX's warehouse receipt inventory, and PF's warehouse receipt inventory. [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents figures on filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [47][49][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The report shows figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, spreads between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [68][72][79] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads. [87][89][100]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date strategy: Neutral to bearish [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm in the short term, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable. The market should focus on the inventory volume in Shandong and Shanxi and the shipping speed in the western region [2][3] - Red dates: The new red dates are expected to be listed intensively, and the inventory pressure is high. The future market trend depends on the actual consumption at the consumer end [7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of Apple 2601 contract was 9438 yuan/ton, a change of - 132 yuan/ton or - 1.38% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of Red date 2601 contract was 9270 yuan/ton, a change of + 80 yuan/ton or + 0.87% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - Western出库 work continues, with more buyers in western warehouses. Ground transactions are ending, mainly in Shanxi paper - wrapped film area and western towns of Shandong Qixia. The quality of ground goods is declining, and fruit farmers are selling at market prices [2] - The price of high - quality apples in the west is expected to remain stable and firm, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hetian and Qiemo is basically over, while that in Aksu and Alar is accelerating. The market adheres to the principle of pricing by quality [6] - The spot price in the sales area is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term [6] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The western出库 work is advancing, and the warehouse transactions in Gansu and Shaanxi are active. The ground transactions are ending, and the inventory volume is lower than last year [3] - The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price rose slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the main production areas is uneven, and the enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average [7] - The acquisition enthusiasm in the sales area has weakened, and the inventory is accumulating. The quality of new dates is better than last year [7] Group 6: Charts - There are multiple charts related to apple and red date prices, futures contracts, yields, consumption, inventory, and shipment volume, with data sources from Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [10]

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-18 下游装置集中重启带动需求回升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5913元/吨（-4），丙烯华东现货价5900元/吨（+25），丙烯华北现货价5845元/吨（+40）， 丙烯华东基差-13元/吨（+29），丙烯华北基差-45元/吨（+53）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR148美元/吨（-8），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR60美元/吨（-1），进口利润-279元/吨（+25），厂内库存47190吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-115元/吨（-40）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-186元/吨（-25）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-280元/吨 （-28）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润561元/吨（-18）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-242元/吨（-31）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-18 策略 目前碳酸锂信息面影响较多，乐观的需求刺激支撑价格上行，但矿端可能的复产带来的供应回升需要保持关注。 盘面上看，近期成交量逐步放大，市场炒作情绪浓厚，持仓量增加明显，多空博弈进一步加强。短期来看，市场 维持强势，但考虑到碳酸锂期货价格弹性较大，追高需谨慎。 消息及资金情绪扰动，碳酸锂期货强势涨停 单边：短期观望为主，关注库存与消费拐点及矿端复产情况，择机逢高卖出套保 市场分析 2025-11-17，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于87700元/吨，收于95200元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化9.00%。当日成 交量为1366919手，持仓量为562954手，前一交易日持仓量516778手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5390元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单26953手，较上个交易日变化-217手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价84200-88100元/吨，较前一交易日变化1000元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价83300-84300元/吨，较前一交易日变化1000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1080美元/吨，较前一日变化25美元/吨。据SMM ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [7]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although high copper prices significantly suppress consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance of new energy sectors like photovoltaics in the second half of the year, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On November 17, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 86,640 yuan/ton and closed at 86,450 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 86,440 yuan/ton and closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decline from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - On the previous day, SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at 86,300 - 86,720 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day. The procurement and sales sentiment in the market declined. Shanghai's procurement index was 3.07 and the sales index was 3.22. Good - quality copper resources were in short supply, with a premium of 80 - 120 yuan/ton for the next - month contract. Flat - grade copper with a discount of 50 yuan/ton was quickly traded [2]. Important Information Summary - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signaled a dovish stance, stating that the downside risk to employment has increased and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again in the December meeting. US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out that the job market showed "mixed signals" [3]. Mining End - On November 16, a serious accident occurred at a semi - industrial copper mine in southeastern Congo (Kinshasa), where a bridge collapse led to about 30 miners' deaths and many injuries. The official death toll may reach 49, with 20 people in critical condition. The accident was caused by military personnel shooting, which led to miners' panic and a stampede [4]. Smelting and Import - Last week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to weaken. The average weekly price of bills of lading was 45.4 US dollars/ton, a 1.4 - dollar decrease from the previous week. The import window remained closed, with a loss of about 850 yuan/ton. The foreign - trade market was sluggish, but there were two areas of structural activity [5]. Consumption - Sichuan Southwest Copper Co., Ltd.'s Phase II expansion project has completed its main construction and entered the final stage. After full operation, the company's total production capacity will reach 170,000 tons. It is expected to achieve a production value of 1.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter and 4.5 billion yuan for the whole year [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 450 tons to 136,050 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 7,135 tons to 56,965 tons. On November 17, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 193,800 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the previous week [6]. Strategy Copper - Operators can buy on dips for hedging between 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton, and enterprises with selling - hedging needs can operate between 88,500 - 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Arbitrage - Put on hold [7]. Options - Short put [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2][3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [4][6] - Thermal Coal: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias in the short - term, long - term supply is expected to be loose [7] Core Views - The steel market is characterized by accelerated inventory reduction and oscillating prices. The fundamentals of building materials have improved, while the contradiction in strip materials lies in high inventory and high production. Future price trends depend on winter storage games and raw material support [1]. - The iron ore market has a weakening demand expectation. With high supply, increasing inventory, and potential seasonal decline in molten iron, the price is likely to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to molten iron production and downstream inventory changes [2]. - The coking coal and coke market shows a wait - and - see sentiment with wide - range oscillations. Coking coal supply is tight in the short - term, and the fourth round of coke price increase has been fully implemented. Future trends depend on the recovery of coking coal supply and changes in molten iron production [4][5]. - The thermal coal market has increasing wait - and - see sentiment and stable prices. In the short - term, prices are oscillating with a slightly upward bias due to factors such as insufficient port inventory accumulation and strong non - power demand. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures contracts oscillated slightly upward. Spot steel prices rose following the futures, with low - price speculation and futures - spot transactions being the main types, and rigid demand being relatively low. The national building materials trading volume was 13360 tons, and the inventory reduction rate increased [1]. - Supply and demand and logic: The production and sales of building materials decreased month - on - month, and inventory continued to decline. Supply was restricted by profits, and the fundamentals improved. The contradiction in strip materials lies in high inventory and high production, which requires production cuts to resolve. Short - term prices will oscillate, and future trends depend on winter storage games and raw material support [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: None [1] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated slightly upward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly, and traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 75800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.76%. The global ore shipment volume increased significantly this period, while the arrival volume decreased [2]. - Supply and demand and logic: Currently, iron ore supply remains high, and inventory continues to increase. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, and the release of maintenance plans by northern steel mills, there is an expected seasonal decline in molten iron. However, due to the relatively limited arrival volume, the price correction space is insufficient, and it is likely to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to molten iron production and downstream inventory changes [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: None [3] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The coking coal and coke futures market showed a range - bound upward trend. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal continued to recover, and the quotation was adjusted dynamically according to the futures. The overall trading volume was mediocre. The fourth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, and coking profits were repaired [4]. - Supply and demand and logic: For coking coal, domestic production increased slightly month - on - month, but the recovery was less than expected. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, but imports decreased slightly this Friday due to a one - day closure of three major ports. The short - term supply and demand are still in a tight pattern. For coke, after the fourth round of price increase, the losses of coking enterprises have eased. Attention should be paid to the production recovery. Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills have no new production cut plans, so there is rigid demand support. The strong thermal coal price also supports the coking coal and coke prices. Future trends depend on the recovery of coking coal supply and changes in molten iron production [4][5]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation - Coke: Oscillation - Others: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production areas, current coal prices in major production areas have stabilized, and speculative demand has subsided. Downstream enterprises mainly rely on long - term agreements for transportation, and some coal mines maintain a balance between production and sales. Some enterprises have low production due to inspections and have firm quotations. Future attention should be paid to production area prices and port inventory changes. In the short - term, miners remain optimistic. At ports, transactions are mainly based on long - term agreements. Downstream enterprises are highly resistant to high - priced coal, and market coal transactions are relatively cold. Affected by the weakening sentiment of upstream coal prices, downstream wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and there is short - term market pressure. However, the port inventory is still lower than last year, and the arrival of resources is limited, so some traders are still optimistic. In the import market, there is still a certain profit in imported coal, and the price of imported high - calorie coal is firm, so the imported coal market is still active [7]. - Supply and demand and logic: Although there are slight changes in production area prices, with the arrival of the winter heating season, the port inventory accumulation is less than expected, and non - power demand is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate slightly upward. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose. Future attention should be paid to peak - season consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. Strategy - Not mentioned in the report

期货研究报告|农产品组专题报告 2025-11-18 11 月 USDA 棉花供需报告解读 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 国内方面，国庆后随着采收进度加快，由于南疆部分区域受脱叶剂效果不佳以及天气 变化影响，出现亩产同比减少和衣分偏低的情况，使得市场对于新棉产量预期下滑， 籽棉收购价也震荡走强，推动郑棉期价一度反弹至 13600 元/吨上方。不过盘面上涨后 面临较强的套保压力，且近期新疆产量预期又再度上升，而国内下游旺季特征并不明 显，中美关税利好影响下订单也仅有零星好转。当前进入纺织行业淡季，内地下游需 求开始呈现偏弱态势，纺企对棉花原料随用随采，需求面支撑不足。不过纺纱利润整 体有所改善，且当前成品库存压力尚可，盘面下行空间预计受限。 ◼ 策略 ...

期货研究报告|股指及商品策略专题 2025-11-17 股指、贵金属观点与策略 研究院 联系人 汪雅航 wangyahang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 蔡劭立 0755-23887993 caishaoli@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 高聪 021-60828524 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 股指：近期有关部门发布"十五五"规划一些细分领域的指导文件，权益市场长期运行主 线正逐步清晰，长牛行情的趋势无需质疑。短期来看，我国十月经济数据仍在磨底阶段， 中日关系紧张，美国流动性危机尚未过去，受上述海内外多重因素影响，指数呈宽幅震 荡消化态势，市场操作难度依然较高，建议继续通过股指期货进行风险对冲。 黄金：2025-11-14 当周，贵金属延续震荡走势。利率路径方面，美联储内部存在显著分 歧：多名美联储理事释放偏鹰信号；而与此对应的是，美联储理事米兰表示，近期的经 济数据支持了美联储 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the market liquidity overview of various sectors on November 14, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of multiple sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate - On November 14, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 649.148 billion yuan, a - 8.99% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1327.251 billion yuan, a - 0.03% change; the trading - holding ratio was 48.47% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 381.833 billion yuan, a + 7.89% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 846.976 billion yuan, a - 1.50% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.76% [1]. IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metal plate was 445.669 billion yuan, a - 10.30% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 628.570 billion yuan, a - 1.88% change; the trading - holding ratio was 77.35%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 952.806 billion yuan, a - 2.09% change; the holding amount was 476.819 billion yuan, a - 1.51% change; the trading - holding ratio was 261.87% [1]. V. Energy - Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy - chemical plate was 459.409 billion yuan, a - 4.26% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 459.599 billion yuan, a - 1.25% change; the trading - holding ratio was 86.33% [1]. VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 316.938 billion yuan, a - 2.21% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 605.176 billion yuan, a + 1.15% change; the trading - holding ratio was 48.82% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 194.354 billion yuan, a + 0.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 375.029 billion yuan, a + 0.22% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.62% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously decreasing, and consumption has certain support. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine end resumes production, the inventory may change from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the market may decline at that time [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 86,500 yuan/ton and closed at 87,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.39% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,106,011 lots, and the open interest was 536,514 lots. The previous day's open interest was 528,966 lots. The current basis was -3,370 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,508 lots, a change of -779 lots compared to the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,100 - 86,600 yuan/ton, a change of 1,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,500 - 82,500 yuan/ton, a change of 900 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,050 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with the operating rates of both the spodumene end and the salt lake end maintained above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [2]. - In the demand aspect, both commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [2]. - As of November 13, 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched a purchase tax support plan [2]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 11 tons to 21,545 tons. The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons. The consumption end has strong support recently [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude in the short term. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5].