Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] - Option strategy: Sell puts Group 2: Core View of the Report - After a long - term sideways pattern, the current spot trading of lead is gradually improving, and there seems to be a chance for the peak - season demand to be gradually realized [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On August 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.92/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. Different regional lead spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes. The lead scrap price differential remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and scrap battery prices were stable [1] - **Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,750 yuan/ton, closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 48,645 lots, up 8,512 lots, and the position was 65,019 lots, down 7,064 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.18% from the afternoon closing price [1] - **Inventory**: On August 6, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, down 110,000 tons from last week. As of August 6, the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, down 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Absolute price operation**: Temporarily focus on buying hedging on dips, with the recommended buying range at 16,600 - 16,650 yuan/ton [3]

几内亚矿权的争夺不影响国内进口矿供应 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-07 库存方面，截止2025-08-06，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存56.4万吨，较上一期变化2.0吨，仓单库存42662 吨，较上一交易日变化-1625吨，LME铝库存467925吨，较上一交易日变化1900吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-06SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3240元/吨，山东价格录得3220元/吨，河南价格录得 3240元/吨，广西价格录得3315元/吨，贵州价格录得3315元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得375美元/吨。 重要数据 氧化铝期货方面：2025-08-06氧化铝主力合约开于3208元/吨，收于3241元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化31元/ 吨，变化幅度0.97%，最高价达到3253元/吨，最低价为3196元/吨。全天交易日成交174314手，全天交易日持 仓118314手。 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20630元/吨，较上一交易日变化110元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-40元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价20540元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-130 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The LPG market has a stable and loose supply - demand pattern. The PG futures shows signs of a rebound after the decline in crude oil prices stabilizes, and the spot prices in East and South China have slightly increased. However, the market has limited upside potential and limited downside space in the short term [1]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Analysis - On August 6, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market 4500 - 4560 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4040 - 4360 yuan/ton, North China market 4410 - 4600 yuan/ton, East China market 4280 - 4500 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4450 - 4640 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4000 - 4200 yuan/ton, and South China market 4340 - 4500 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of September 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in South China increased by 4 dollars/ton to 552 dollars/ton and 510 dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4337 yuan/ton and 4007 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. In East China, they also rose by 4 dollars/ton to 556 dollars/ton and 514 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4368 yuan/ton and 4038 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy: The market is expected to be weakly volatile, and investors should pay attention to the bottom - building signals of the futures market [2]. - Other strategies (inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): No specific strategies are provided [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the domestic supply is ample with high arrival volume and rising inventory, and the future supply may be more abundant due to positive policy expectations and a strong harvest forecast for US soybeans. The demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The price was affected by macro - factors last month, and future supply may be influenced by policy and US soybean growth [2] - For corn, in the early July, the supply increased due to imported corn auctions, leading to a weak price. Later, the supply decreased with lower auction transaction rates. The demand from feed enterprises is weak. The old - crop corn fundamentals are stable, and new - crop corn has not been listed yet, so its yield and cost need attention [4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3026 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2745 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.77% [1] - Spot: Tianjin's soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Jiangsu's was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: A consulting firm expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area to increase by 2.0% to 48.6 million hectares, with a 2.5% increase in production to a record 177.2 million tons. As of July 24, the US has sold over 3 million tons of 2025/26 soybeans, a 12% year - on - year decrease [1] Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - Supply: High arrival volume and rising inventory in the short - term, and future supply may be more abundant due to policy and US soybean production [2] - Demand: Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly purchase as needed, resulting in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [2] Strategy (Soybean Meal) - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2259 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.44%; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2662 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.30% [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - Market Information: As of August 3, the US winter wheat harvest progress was 86%, lower than the five - year average; spring wheat harvest progress was 5%, with a 48% good - to - excellent rate, down 1 percentage point week - on - week [3] Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: In early July, the supply increased due to auctions, leading to weak prices. Later, the supply decreased with lower auction transaction rates [4] - Demand: Feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, and the demand is weak [4] Strategy (Corn) - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply and demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment has improved, and the propylene futures market has been repaired. However, the falling crude oil price at the cost end, combined with insufficient supply - demand drivers, restricts the upward space of propylene. Supply pressure still exists as some devices are shut down temporarily, but there are expectations of restarting PDH devices and releasing new production capacities. Demand has phased support, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The data in this section includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [17][26][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - This part shows the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - The data consists of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) rebounded due to the rebound of coking coal prices and the poor restart of overseas Saudi Arabian plants. The supply is in an increasing trend, but the restart of overseas plants is not smooth, and the increase of port inventory is less than expected. Under low inventory, attention should be paid to cost changes [1][3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, the domestic supply load of ethylene glycol synthesis gas has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the supply of long - distance goods is expected to gradually return to normal. In July, the terminal replenished inventory, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a small inventory build - up, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.34%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,493 yuan/ton (a change of +33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.74%), and the East China spot basis of EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 51.6 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 42.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.3 tons, lower than the planned value. The port inventory decreased slightly last week. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 13.8 tons, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will increase this week [1] - The overall balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up at the beginning of August, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the current oversupply situation of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near future [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support for stainless steel. But downstream rigid - demand orders are few, and spot trading is weak, lacking impetus for price increase. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On August 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,500 yuan/ton and closed at 121,070 yuan/ton, a change of 0.22% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 87,840 lots, and the open interest was 86,052 lots [1]. - The night session of the main Shanghai nickel contract opened slightly lower, then fell rapidly, and then oscillated higher. The day session rushed up and then fell back, closing slightly higher in the afternoon with a medium - sized positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [2]. - In the Philippines, mines are mostly in the shipping stage. Downstream domestic iron plants mostly reduce production loads, and raw material procurement remains cautious. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, nickel - mine mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel - mine market has weakened. In August (Phase I), the domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars; the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) is mainly +24, flat compared with the previous period, in the range of +23 - 25 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream market brands also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the disk oscillated strongly, and the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Most of the spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,789 (- 134.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,452 (198) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On August 6, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,950 yuan/ton and closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 82,019 lots, and the open interest was 84,046 lots [3]. - The night session of the main stainless - steel contract opened slightly lower, then fell rapidly, and then oscillated back up after getting support. The day session rushed up but was blocked and then oscillated horizontally, closing with a negative doji. The trading volume increased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - In the spot market, the futures disk oscillated horizontally, and the spot price changed little. Purchasers hoped to buy at low prices, while agents were reluctant to reduce prices for shipment, and the overall trading situation was average. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 160 to 360 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 918.0 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

FICC日报 | 2025-08-06 商品价格波动仍剧烈 市场分析 市场再回归基本面验证阶段。7月30日政治局会议明部署下半年经济工作：对于宏观政策基调，会议强调"宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，维持"稳中有进"的基调，关 于反内卷，会议强调"依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理"，较前期中央财经委提法有所修正， 或指向后续"反内卷"政策将更温和。中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，新订单指数回落至49.4，非制造业保持扩 张，后续需要关注对等关税落地对经济事实的影响。8月5日，A股全天震荡走高，午后三大股指持续拉升，沪指涨 近1%，重回3600点上方，再创年内收盘新高。银行、保险、钢铁等权重股上涨，PEEK材料、高速铜连接等概念股 活跃。商品期货收盘，焦煤主力合约涨近7%，多晶硅、焦炭涨超3%。 关注"对等关税"的影响。7月31日，白宫发布行政令，对部分国家重新设定"对等关税"税率标准：行政令附件1中列 明国家将适用个别税率，未列明国家则统一适用10%的税率；如有国家或地区通过第三地转运方式规避关税，其商 品将被征收40%的转运税。据白宫公 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-06 情绪提振，PVC盘面止跌反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5042元/吨（+61）；华东基差-192元/吨（-41）;华南基差-132元/吨（-51）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4910元/吨（+10）。 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2506元/吨（-23）；山东32%液碱基差57元/吨（+23）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨（+113）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨（+27）；PVC出口利润12.7美元/吨（+4.8）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1290元/吨（-30）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存34.5万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存44.8万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率74.42%（-4.79%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%（+3.29%）；PVC开工率73.26%（-2.55%）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term short - position allocation for oil prices, with oil prices expected to trade in a range [3] Core Viewpoints - India responded strongly to Trump's threat of sanctions on countries buying Russian energy, indicating it would defend its national interests and suggesting its policy of purchasing Russian oil won't change [2] - Oil prices have continued to decline due to concerns about demand and increased OPEC+ supply, but the potential disruption of Russian oil exports limits the decline. The future of oil prices largely depends on Trump's decision on sanctions against Russia [1][5] Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.70% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a 1.63% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.30% at 503 yuan per barrel [1] - The price of AI - 95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange hit a record high, exceeding 77,000 rubles ($964.6) per ton. The market attributes the price increase to the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries on August 2nd, which damaged crude oil processing facilities with a total capacity of about 40,000 tons per day, and repairs are expected to take 1 to 6 months [1] - BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said that the growth of non - OPEC oil supply will peak in early 2026, while demand remains strong. He expects non - OPEC supply to be basically flat 12 to 18 months after February or March next year. Oil market demand is still "quite strong" and is expected to grow this year and next year, with petrochemical products leading consumption next year. Developments related to sanctions on Russia and Iran are the main drivers of oil price increases [1] - US President Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after a meeting on Wednesday. When asked about imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, he said it was quite possible [1] Investment Logic - India responded strongly to Trump's threats of tariffs on Russian oil imports, stating it would defend national interests and accusing Western countries of hypocrisy. The market believes India's policy of purchasing Russian oil will not change as it can't find alternative sources, and even if there are alternatives, the volume is expected to be very small [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to trade in a range, with a mid - term short - position allocation [3]