尿素日报 | 2025-10-10 节后厂内库存高位累库 市场分析 策略 单边：中性 跨期：UR01-05逢高反套 跨品种：无 价格与基差：2025-10-09，尿素主力收盘1609元/吨（-61）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1570 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1560元/吨（-40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1570元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-49 元/吨（+21）；河南基差：-39元/吨（+41）；江苏基差：-39元/吨（+31）；尿素生产利润30元/吨（-40），出口利润1083 元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-09，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-09，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 国庆期间尿素需求偏弱，尿素现货价格持续走弱，期货跟随震荡下跌。本周期内内需跟进不足导致厂内库存继续 累积，本周较国庆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The US has intensified oil sanctions, adding a Chinese terminal, local refineries, and shadow tankers to the sanctions list, which affects the sensitive oil supply chain. Due to quota issues, local refineries have low willingness to process sensitive oil, but high sensitive oil shipments lead to high floating and shore - tank inventories and restricted circulation of sensitive oil [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The November - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.04 to $61.51 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; the December - delivery Brent crude oil futures price in London fell $1.03 to $65.22 per barrel, a 1.55% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.96% at 464 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 6, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 16.334 million barrels, an increase of 3.006 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 2.179 million barrels to 8.107 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 0.416 million barrels to 2.307 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 0.411 million barrels to 5.92 million barrels [1] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report expects the 2025 Brent price to be $68.64 per barrel (previously $67.80), and the 2025 WTI crude oil price to be $65.00 per barrel (previously $64.16) [1] - As of the week ending October 8, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 892,000 barrels to a two - week low of 23.669 million barrels [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia will gradually increase oil production, is committed to implementing the OPEC+ agreement, and diesel exports do not require quotas [1] Investment Logic - The US intensifying oil sanctions affects the sensitive oil supply chain. Local refineries' low processing willingness due to quotas and high shipments result in high inventories and restricted circulation of sensitive oil [2] Strategy - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The port inventory has accumulated again after the holiday due to concentrated arrivals, and the inventory inflection point has not appeared yet. The arrival pressure in October remains high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced. The Iranian operating rate is still high, and the lower support for the port still relies on the window for re - flowing to the inland. - The inland price has declined, the coal - based methanol operating rate has rebounded again, the inland inventory has risen from a low level, and the support for the port has weakened. Among traditional downstream industries, the high inventory pressure of acetic acid has dragged down its operating rate, the MTBE operating rate is in a slight rebound cycle, and the formaldehyde operating rate remains stable [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong compared with the main futures contract, as well as the inter - period spread between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). The data sources for these figures are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][9][11] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The report shows figures about methanol production profit (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][29][30] 3.3 Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figures related to methanol operating rate and inventory are presented, including methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operating rate (including integrated). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][41] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes figures showing regional price differences, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [37][46] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures about the production profits of traditional downstream industries are shown, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [47][52]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-10-10 市场利好有限，盘面弱势运行 市场分析 1、10月9日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2511合约下午收盘价3375元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌52元/吨，跌幅 1.51%；持仓107006手，环比下降4913手，成交109080手，环比下降17640手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3706—4086元/吨；山东，3400—3720元/吨；华南，3430—3490元/吨； 华东，3510—3600元/吨。 昨日西北以及华东地区沥青现货价格相对较为稳定，其余地区沥青现货价格较节前均出现明显下跌。就沥青自身 基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，但供应端增量相对更为明显，市场相对宽松。具体来看，近期沥青炼厂开 工率与产量明显提升，山东地区装置负荷已升至相对高位。需求方面，受制于资金与天气因素，改善幅度有限， 旺季特征不明显，南方地区表现弱于北方。此外，由于原油端方向不明朗、产业信心不足，投机需求同样偏谨慎。 整体来看，目前沥青基本面相对疲软，虽然库存仍处于低位，但局部压力已经显现，盘面上行动力不足。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：逢高空BU2511-2512价差（逢高反套） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After gold prices hit a record high, profit-taking sentiment may suppress prices in the short term, but the main logic of safe-haven premium and Fed easing remains unchanged, and future prices are expected to rise further; recent gold prices are likely to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 890 yuan/gram - 915 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is currently showing a similar price pattern as gold, with the main logic unchanged; combined with the expected strengthening of industrial demand in the easing cycle, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Short-term silver prices are also expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,950 yuan/kilogram - 11,550 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025 (local time), the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate; President Trump plans to cut some federal programs favored by Democrats [1] - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market; he believes the US economy is not in recession, inflation risks have eased but still need attention, and monetary policy remains "moderately tight" [1] - US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chair candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 909.96 yuan/gram and closed at 914.32 yuan/gram, a change of 4.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 902.28 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the afternoon close [2] - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,200 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,169 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 605,570 lots, and the open interest was 477,441 lots. The night session closed at 11,078 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.544%, a change of -0.42 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract on October 9, 2025, long positions decreased by 1,783 lots and short positions decreased by 1,463 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 285,521 lots, a change of -32.03% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,005,687 lots, a change of -39.90% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 1,014.58 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,416 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 9, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -17.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,078.81 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 81.86, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.33, a change of 0.66% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51,446 kilograms, a change of -21.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 592,680 kilograms, a change of 123.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,886 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 88,590 kilograms [7]

1. Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,200 yuan/ton and closed at 73,340 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 361,093 lots, and the open interest was 229,022 lots, down from 231,964 lots the previous trading day. The current basis was 170 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 42,379 lots, a change of 670 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 830 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. After the holiday, the market trading was light, and both upstream and downstream were on the sidelines. New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and the total output of lithium carbonate in October was expected to have growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 119 tons to 20,635 tons. The output from spodumene production increased slightly, while the output from mica production decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,024 tons to 134,801 tons. The inventory of smelters increased, while the inventory in the intermediate links and downstream decreased [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE), all to China, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 9% and 21% respectively. The average export price was 3,249 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 561% and 45% respectively. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 31,900 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 127% (an increase of 34,700 tons) [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 13% and 6% respectively. The average export price was 8,704 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 15% and 2% respectively. Among them, the amount exported to China was 11,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%), the amount exported to Japan was 370 tons, and the amount exported to South Korea was 3,999 tons. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% (a decrease of 15,300 tons). The amount exported to China was 120,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (a decrease of 23,900 tons), the amount exported to Japan was 4,801 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%, and the amount exported to South Korea was 29,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 76% [2]. - On October 9, 2025, Cailian Press reported that Zangge Mining (000408.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., recently received the Certificate of Real Estate Right (Mining Right) and the Mining License issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. The mine is the Qarhan Salt Lake Potash - Magnesium Mine of Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., with an area of 724.3493 square kilometers and a mining depth from 2,680 meters to 2,658 meters above sea level. The mining minerals include the main mineral of potash salt, and the associated minerals of salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore, and boron ore [3]. 2. Strategy - The futures market opened high and closed low on the day. There was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbances at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines were restarted later and consumption weakened, the market might decline [4]. - Unilateral: In the short term, conduct range - bound operations and sell hedges on rallies [4]. - There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core Viewpoints - The cost side shows that before the National Day, the strong oil price was mainly driven by geopolitics, with a weak fundamental situation. After the National Day, the slowdown in China's import demand and the increase in US exports, along with the increase in Middle - East exports, have led to an oversupply situation [1] - For PX, the PXN was $222/ton (a month - on - month increase of $3.50/ton). The PX load in China has recovered to a relatively high level, and with the restart of several overseas plants, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponed fourth - quarter maintenance plan and capacity expansion of some plants have put pressure on PXN. The downstream PTA plants have more maintenance plans, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook [1] - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 63 yuan/ton (no month - on - month change), the PTA spot processing fee is 152 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 312 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton). The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October and November, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [2] - In terms of demand, the polyester operation rate is 91.5% (a month - on - month increase of 1.2%). In late September, the weaving and texturing loads increased, and orders improved marginally. Before the National Day, the replenishment demand led to a significant increase in filament sales, and the polyester factory's product inventory decreased significantly [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 251 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load has reached a high level, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials [3] - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 507 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). In the short term, the bottle - chip load remains stable, and the export order - taking and shipping performance are average. There is large supply - demand pressure under the upcoming commissioning of the new Fuhai plant [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operation rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [69][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][91][100]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 苹果稳中有涨，红枣震荡上行 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8633元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.19%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1033，较前一日变动-16；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+967，较前一日变动-16。 近期市场资讯，国庆期间西北、山东产区晚富士普遍处于摘袋后上色及红货少量上市阶段，受到连续阴雨影响， 西部产区上色较慢，山东产区部分前期未完成的摘袋工作被迫延迟，红货大量供应时间较去年推迟。山东产区集 中收购时间预计10月15日前后，西部订货客商不多，陕西产区还未进入集中订货期。目前晚熟富士多处于等待上 色阶段，少量红货上市交易，价格高于去年0.5-1.0元/斤不等，少数客商订购，零星交易不成规模，实际参考有限， 继续关注后续上量后价格表现。且需关注连续降雨天气对晚富士上色及质量影响。 市场分析 苹果期价昨日微幅走高，山东栖霞、陕西洛川现货价格持稳，客商拿货意 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The spot price of EG in the East China market decreased by -1.43% to 4214 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main EG contract decreased by -1.16% to 4158 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -63 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change; the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons. From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. During the National Day holiday, there were many arrivals of foreign ships, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port to replenish supplies. On the demand side, the demand was slightly boosted by pre-holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The overall balance sheet of EG has a large pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the inventory may bottom out and rebound [2]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, cautiously short and hedge at high prices. For inter - period trading, conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605. There is no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3]. Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4214 yuan/ton (a change of -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.43%), and the closing price of the main EG contract was 4158 yuan/ton (a change of -49 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.16%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -63 US dollars/ton (a week-on-week increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences were provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Before the festival, the demand was slightly boosted by stocking, and the sales of filament improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load was limited. The sustainability of the demand recovery needs attention [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons (a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons). From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1].

农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 综合来看，从能繁的环比数据来看，未来生猪的供应仍将保持增长状态，预计散户的出栏增长会较为明显。由于 10月的长假影响了生猪出栏的进度，会导致节后集团出栏节奏继续加快。但节后的需求端预计会出现短时间的下 降，供大于求的情况可能会进一步加剧，整体供应压力将会持续释放。 策略 谨慎偏空 现货持续下跌，猪价偏弱运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约11595元/吨，较前交易日变动-760.00元/吨，幅度-6.15%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.22元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.49元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-375，较前交易日变动-590；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.69元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤，现货基差LH11+95，较前交易日变动-410；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.15元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差LH11-445，较前交易日变动+70。 据农业农村部监测，10月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.47，比节前下降0.29个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为119 ...