国债期货日报 | 2025-06-13 政策呵护延续，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [4] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [4] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum has slightly declined, the LME premium is still strengthening, and the domestic inter - month spread remains strong. Consumption is still strong, but its sustainability needs attention as China is about to enter the traditional consumption off - season and overseas demand may decline marginally. [3] - In the alumina market, the industry profit is good, new capacity has been put into production, and production resumption is underway. Although the ore price has short - term support, the expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged. [3] - The supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum in the aluminum alloy market is still tight, and the price is firm. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - On June 12, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium dropped 10 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,590 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,480 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 20 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Futures - On June 12, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened at 20,230 yuan/ton, closed at 20,395 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton (1.12%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 169,366 lots, down 29,277 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 206,884 lots, up 12,256 lots. [1] Aluminum Inventory - As of June 12, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 460,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 355,600 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous day. [1] Alumina Spot - On June 12, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,265 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,255 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On June 12, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,890 yuan/ton, closed at 2,895 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.1%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 332,257 lots, up 4,626 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 295,060 lots, up 1,966 lots. [2] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The spot premium has slightly declined, the LME premium is still strengthening, and the domestic inter - month spread remains strong. Rio Tinto's Tomago faces a shutdown crisis due to energy prices. Consumption is still strong, but its sustainability needs attention as China is about to enter the traditional consumption off - season and overseas demand may decline marginally. [3] Alumina - In the spot market, 1,000 tons were traded at 3,180 yuan/ton in Henan. The industry profit is good, with 4.8 million tons of new capacity in East China put into production and production resumption in progress. The alumina supply surplus expectation remains unchanged. [3] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum is still tight, and the price is firm. The Baotai quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the AD2511 - AL2511 contract spread was - 495 yuan/ton. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously Bearish; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Shanghai aluminum positive arbitrage [4]

Market News and Key Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, reaching a new high since the week ending October 5, 2024 [1] - The monthly rate of the US core PPI in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders fully priced in two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar declined for two consecutive days [1] - US President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and demanded a 200 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.00 yuan/gram and closed at 785.16 yuan/gram, up 0.98% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 218,198 lots, and the open interest was 172,351 lots. In the night session, it opened at 786.98 yuan/gram and closed at 786.02 yuan/gram, up 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On June 12, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 8,859 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,819 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 662,487 lots, and the open interest was 432,670 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,818 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,787 yuan/kilogram, down 0.53% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 12, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.41%, down 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.46%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract on June 12, 2025, long positions decreased by 72 lots compared to the previous day, and short positions decreased by 618 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 427,902 lots, up 36.23% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, long positions decreased by 5,010 lots, and short positions increased by 1,704 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,085,408 lots, down 20.62% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 937.91 tons on the previous day, up 3.72 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 14,729.08 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 2.53 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 523.63 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 89.03, up 1.93% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 92.85, up 1.75% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On June 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 50,430 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 805,092 kilograms, up 64.55% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 15,196 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 40,230 kilograms [7] Investment Recommendations - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with an operating range of 760 - 765 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. It is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, but avoid aggressive chasing. More attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Put on hold [8]

苹果库存剩余不多，新季红枣生长良好 苹果观点 农产品日报 | 2025-06-13 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7576元/吨，较前一日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+624，较前一日变动-25；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+2024，较前一日变动-25。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场交投淡稳，客商拿货积极性一般，仍青睐性价比较高的货源，产区新季苹果套袋工作进 入中后期。西部产区客商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体惜售情绪减弱； 山东产区大果及好果走货一般，部分乡镇价格小幅松动，客商寻货不积极。销区市场市场走货一般，天气转热， 瓜类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质 论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-12 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-11日沪镍主力合约2507开于121300元/吨，收于121790元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.11%，当日成交量为 89964手，持仓量为76472手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘低开走高后区间振荡，日盘开盘下跌受阻后振荡反弹，收中阴线。成交量较上个交易日略有减 少，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。中美经贸双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意 见。国家统计局6月9日发布数据显示，5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食 品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。菲律宾镍业协会（PNIA）欢迎两院委员会 决定从矿业财政制度法案最终版本中删除原矿出口禁令条款。这是一个审慎且具有前瞻性的举措。菲律宾苏里高 矿区装船效率恢复尚可。6月中国精炼镍预估产量37345吨，环比增加3.75%。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上 个交易日下调约50元/吨，市 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-12 中美谈判新进展，股指反弹 市场分析 中美谈判新进展。国内方面，当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。双方进行了 坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经 贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总 理何立峰表示，下一步，双方要按照两国元首通话达成的重要共识和要求，进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用， 不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。美方表示，本次会议取得积极成果，进一步稳定了双边经贸关系，将按照 两国元首通话要求，与中方相向而行，共同落实好本次会议共识。海外方面，美国劳工部数据显示，5月CPI同比 增长2.4%、环比增长0.1%，剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨2.8%、环比增长0.1%，均低于预期。CPI数据 公布后，特朗普再度呼吁美联储降息100个基点。 指数反弹。现货市场，A股三大指数反包，上证指数涨0.52%收于3402.32点，创业板指涨1.21%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，有色金属、农林牧渔、非银金融、汽车 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-12 工业硅仓单持续减少，近期盘面向上修复较多 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-11，工业硅期货价格反弹，主力合约2507开于7365元/吨，最后收于7560元/吨，较前一日结算变化（165） 元/吨，变化（2.23）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓147036手，2025-06-11仓单总数为58674手，较前一日变化-578 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。现货价格企稳，近期工业 硅仓单持续减少，目前仓单数量较4月中旬最高点已降低57855吨，前段时间盘面不断回落，使得期现贸易商仓单 与非标货性价比提升，较硅厂出货更加流畅，仓单流出较多，但近几日盘面反弹后，基差收窄，后续仓单注销速 度或明显放缓。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10700-11500（0）元/吨。据SMM统计，5月国内有机硅产量环比4月上升 6.48%，开工率增至62.37% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production industry has seen an increase in new energy vehicle production and sales, with exports also growing significantly. The service industry should pay attention to the promotion of elderly - care service - related programs [1]. - Upstream, international oil prices have risen slightly, while urea and soda ash prices have declined. In the mid - stream, PX and pig product processing开工率 have increased. Downstream, first - and second - tier city property sales are at a near - three - year low, and domestic flight frequencies have decreased periodically [2][3][4]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - From January to May, China's automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles, growing by 45.2% and 44% year - on - year, accounting for 44% of total new car sales. Automobile exports were 2.49 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports at 855,000 vehicles, a 64.6% year - on - year increase [1]. 3.1.2. Service Industry - The International Organization for Standardization has released an international standard on the inclusive digital economy for an aging society led by China, providing specific suggestions for high - frequency digital economy scenarios for the elderly [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have risen slightly. - Chemical: Urea and soda ash prices have declined [2]. 3.2.2. Mid - stream - Chemical: PX开工率 has recovered. - Agriculture: Pig product processing开工率 has increased [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - Real Estate: First - and second - tier city property sales are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low. - Service: Domestic flight frequencies have decreased periodically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 6/11) | Industry | Last Year | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 63.38 | 88.71 | 77.76 | 59.48 | 59.28 | 0.70 | | Mining | 35.48 | 25.94 | 47.91 | 38.57 | 39.39 | 9.40 | | Chemical | 67.32 | 72.87 | 63.09 | 21.15 | 50.99 | 0.10 | | Steel | 42.16 | 65.09 |... | 45.94 | 46.91 | 10.50 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 44.71 | 65.43 | 58.77 | 51.36 | 51.00 | 12.00 | | Electronics | 61.94 | 86.94 | 77.65 | 58.50 | 58.89 | 8.40 | | Automobile | 63.19 | 71.17 | 51.29 | 40.74 | 41.64 | 0.70 | | Household Appliances | 42.03 | 60.23 | 53.02 | 45.87 | 46.68 | 12.50 | | Food and Beverage | 42.30 | 54.60 | 45.51 | 35.32 | 36.25 | 2.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 51.27 | 64.99 | 55.00 | 51.41 | 51.69 | 9.10 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 49.82 | 203.78 | 165.50 | 148.84 | 145.95 | 7.10 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 23.69 | 75.25 | 73.82 | 61.08 | 59.40 | 8.60 | |... | 26.29 | 41.31 | 33.99 | 26.24 | 27.04 | 9.80 | | Transportation | 32.99 | 45.47 | 38.14 | 30.12 | 31.18 | 6.10 | | Real Estate | 221.47 | 158.34 | 125.70 | 101.21 | 103.67 | 6.40 | | Commercial Trade | 46.51 | 59.70 | 51.36 | 42.04 | 41.84 | 4.00 | | Leisure Services | 80.78 | 112.28 | 127.15 | 121.37 | 122.09 | 98.10 | | Bank | 27.73 | 36.23 | 19.75 | 19.17 | 18.01 | 4.40 | | Non - bank Finance | 28.71 | 42.60 | 35.76 | 29.23 | 29.51 | 6.80 | | Comprehensive | 69.20 | 59.32 | 51.02 | 41.51 | 42.20 | 1.30 | | Building Materials | 35.82 | 55.75 | 47.38 | 37.31 | 38.25 | 8.10 | | Building Decoration | 43.77 | 66.60 | 56.84 | 59.22 | 60.30 | 28.40 | | Electrical Equipment | 53.06 | 93.59 | 83.42 | 79.80 | 79.15 | 41.80 | | Mechanical Equipment | 32.71 | 51.69 | 48.31 | 42.07 | 43.99 | 24.30 | | Computer | 69.67 | 76.76 | 62.98 | 48.56 | 46.46 | 0.00 | | Media | 227.40 | 53.06 | 46.41 | 38.66 | 39.69 | 1.00 | | Communication | 31.64 | 44.82 | 28.75 | 24.87 | 25.36 | 1.40 | [49] 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 6/10) | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 2308.6 | 0.50% | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/10 | 5.8 | - 2.02% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 8630.0 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 14623.0 | 0.44% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/10 | 20.3 | - 1.41% | | | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 79293.3 | 1.03% | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 22146.0 | - 2.50% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 20193.3 | 0.28% | | | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 123000.0 | - 0.52% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 16706.3 | 1.10% | | | Spot price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3090.2 | 1.29% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 746.1 | - 0.56% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3267.5 | 0.23% | | | Spot price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/sq.m | 6/10 | 13.8 | - 2.82% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 13670.8 | 2.72% | | | China Plastics City price index | Daily | - | 6/10 | 824.4 | - 0.25% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/10 | 65.3 | 4.43% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/10 | 67.0 | 3.73% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3998.0 | - 2.01% | | | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 748.0 | - 0.53% | | | Spot price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 4880.5 | - 1.38% | | Chemical | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 7346.7 | - 0.14% | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 1821.7 | - 3.92% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 1370.0 | - 4.20% | | | Cement price index: National | Daily | - | 6/10 | 140.9 | 0.84% | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | Daily | Points | 6/10 | 111.6 | 0.30% | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 6/10 | 99.1 | - 0.24% | [50]

尿素日报 | 2025-06-12 工业需求下降，工厂库存上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-11，尿素主力收盘1667元/吨（-11）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：83 元/吨（+1）；河南基差：83元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：83元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（-10），出口利润608 元/吨（+2）。 供应端：截至2025-06-11，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.71 万吨（+14.17），港口样 本库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-11，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.71日（+0.24）。 尿素工业需求下降，虽然目前处于传统农业需求旺季，但下游需求不温不火，农需推进不及预期，工业复合肥及 板材行业开工下降，市场情绪偏弱，工厂库存继续上涨。尿素出口法检相关信息明确后，出 ...

';<=>?@ABCDE2025-06-12 5 ! CPI "#$%&'($%)* ——!"#$%&'(! !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 11 日晚美国劳工部公布 5 月通胀数字。其中： 同比：CPI+2.4%，预期+2.5%，前值+2.3%；核心 CPI+2.8%，预期+2.9%，前值+2.8%。 环比：CPI+0.1%，预期+0.2%，前值+0.2%；核心 CPI+0.1%，预期+0.3%，前值+0.2%。 &'"( ■ 5 ! CPI "#$%&' 5 月 CPI 同比上升 2.4%，环比上涨 0.1%，核心 CPI 同比为 2.8%，环比仅涨 0.1%，其中 核心CPI年化增速创2021年3月以来最低。通胀低于预期主要受服装等价格下跌推动， 能源价格同比跌 3.5%，租金同比上涨 3.8%，是主要上行因素之一。食品价格同比上升 2.9%，但医疗、交通等分项环比涨幅较小甚至下降，表明在关税预期压力下，企业短 期仍在吸 ...