Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and jujube industries is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current inventory level is low, providing price support. The new season is about to start, and the market has high expectations for the opening price, with the price expected to be stronger in the west than in the east [4] - For jujubes, if the yield and quality fall short of expectations, the upward trend may continue. Otherwise, the jujube futures price will face a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract this week was 8,401 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 128 yuan/ton or 1.55% [1] - Spot: In Shandong's Qixia area, the price of 80 first and second-grade apples was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. In Shaanxi's Luochuan area, the price of 70 semi-commodity apples was 9,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [1] Recent Market Information - Cold storage inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the national main apple-producing area cold storage inventory was 121,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 41,400 tons. The remaining inventory was concentrated in Shandong [2] - Production area: The inventory spot market was stronger in the east than in the west. The price of mid-late varieties in the west remained stable at a high level. In Shandong, the old Fuji inventory was not cleared, and the general cargo price was slightly weak [2] - Sales area: The number of early morning arrivals at the Guangdong Chalong market decreased slightly compared to last week. As the Double Festival approached, the market began to stock up, and the arrival volume increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [2] Market Analysis - The Double Festival stocking is in the later stage, and the late Fuji in the east and west is entering the bag-removing period. The inventory in Shandong has not been cleared, and the general cargo price is slightly weak. The western pickling Fuji is gradually being listed, and the price is stable at a high level [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The current inventory level is low, and the price has bottom support. The new season is about to start, and the market has high expectations for the opening price, with the price expected to be stronger in the west than in the east [4] Jujube Market News and Important Data - Futures: The Jujube 2601 contract rebounded this week. As of September 26, the closing price was 11,285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 615 yuan/ton or 5.76% [5] - Spot: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey jujubes in the 2024 production season was concentrated between 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with a reference average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The price of first-grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [5] Recent Market Information - New season jujubes: The jujube trees in the main production areas are in the sugar-accumulation period. The temperature in Xinjiang has dropped slightly, and no extreme weather has occurred. The market has a relatively clear judgment on the new season's yield trend, and concerns about quality have decreased [6] - Sales area: The arrival volume in the sales area market was low this week. The off-peak to peak-season transition period saw general downstream purchasing enthusiasm and weak Double Festival stocking [6] Market Analysis - The 2024 production season had a large jujube yield and high inventory, but the quality was poor. The market is gradually transitioning from the off-season to the peak season, but the inventory pressure remains, and the supply-demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. If the yield and quality fall short of expectations, the upward trend of jujubes may continue. Otherwise, the jujube futures price will face a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support [8]

矿端干扰使得铜价愈发易涨难跌 市场要闻与重要数据 现货情况： 据SMM讯，2025-09-27当周，SMM1#电解铜平均价格运行于80010元/吨至82505元/吨，周中呈现走高的态势。SMM 升贴水报价运行于-5元/吨至60元/吨。库存方面，2025-09-27当周，LME库存变动-0.10万吨至14.44万吨，上期所库 存变化-0.70万吨至9.88万吨。国内社会库存（不含保税区）变化-0.44万吨至14.01万吨，保税区库存变动-0.14万吨 至7.54万吨。Comex库存上涨0.40吨至32.23万吨。 新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 形成对于铜绝对价格的持续性利好，另外国内针对铜冶炼企业的反内卷措施也仍需关注后续具体实施情况，而对 于铜价而言，在临近国庆假期之际，若存在投机头寸仓位过重的情况则建议适当减仓，套保投资则可在80,500元/ 观点： 宏观方面，2025-09-27当周，美联储主席鲍威尔强调称当前政策风险具有双向性；而后美财长贝森特称其认为利率 水平仍然过高，需下调至少100至150个基点；而多位美联储官员也进一步表明了偏向鸽派的货币政策立场。但整 体看美联储未来的降息路径 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, domestic existing plant operations remain at a high level, while the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Pre - holiday downstream procurement and stocking were satisfactory, leading to a faster inventory reduction rate at ports and a continuous strengthening of the pure benzene basis. The downstream operations of pure benzene have rapidly recovered from the bottom, but the long - term procurement sustainability of MDI, PA6, and nylon filament after the holiday is questionable due to inventory pressure and poor BPA operations [4]. - For styrene, the operations of PS and EPS have declined, along with a decrease in提货. With concentrated EB arrivals, port inventories have accumulated again, and the EB basis has further weakened. EB operations will remain at a low level in the short term, and factory inventories have decreased. Overseas, the EB operations in Europe and the United States remain low, and the price difference between European and American EB and the Chinese market continues to be weak, limiting the upside potential of EB [4]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period There is no specific content provided in the text for this section. II. Styrene Supply - The arrival volume of styrene in East China is 56,000 tons (+35,000). The overall styrene plant operating rate is 73.24% (-0.20%), with the operating rate in East China at 69.96% (-3.01%), in Shandong at 77.87% (-2.66%), and in South China at 69.50% (+12.87%) [1]. III. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS operating rate is 55.25% (-6.49%), PS operating rate is 59.10% (-2.10%), ABS operating rate is 70.00% (+0.20%), UPR operating rate is 33.00% (-1.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate is 70.43% (+0.00%). EPS sample enterprise inventory is 31,300 tons (-100), PS sample enterprise inventory is 89,360 tons (-360), ABS sample enterprise inventory is 243,600 tons (+4,900), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprise inventory is 20,500 tons (+600) [1]. IV. Styrene Inventory - Styrene inventory in East China ports is 186,500 tons (+27,500), and styrene factory inventory is 203,274 tons (-13,009) [1]. V. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports is 107,000 tons (-27,000). The pure benzene operating rate is 79.27% (+0.92%), and the hydro - benzene operating rate is 63.99% (+4.05%) [2]. VI. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - Caprolactam operating rate is 93.66% (+4.97%), phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (+7.00%), aniline operating rate is 74.92% (+2.97%), and adipic acid operating rate is 61.40% (-1.20%). In the CPL industry chain, CPL operating rate is 93.66% (+4.97%), CPL factory inventory is 50,000 tons (+2,000), PA6 operating rate is 76.04% (+0.25%), PA6 conventional spinning factory inventory days are 7 days (-1 day), nylon filament operating rate is 78.00% (+0.00%), and nylon filament factory inventory days are 34.5 days (+0.5 days). In the phenol - acetone industry chain, phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (+7.00%), Jiangyin phenol port inventory is 6,000 tons (-1,000), Jiangyin acetone port inventory is 24,500 tons (-4,500), bisphenol A operating rate is 65.93% (-2.91), PC operating rate is 81.27% (-2.63), and epoxy resin operating rate is 50.76% (-0.76). In the aniline industry chain, aniline operating rate is 74.92% (+2.97%), polymer MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%), polymer MDI factory inventory is 71,000 tons (+2,000), pure MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%), and pure MDI factory inventory is 7,000 tons (+700). In the adipic acid industry chain, adipic acid operating rate is 61.40% (-1.20%), spandex operating rate is 77.50% (+0.00%), spandex factory inventory days are 50 days (+0.00%), PA66 operating rate is 61.27% (+2.32%), and polyurethane elastomer operating rate is 52.29% (+1.02%) [2][3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for BZ, and conduct short - selling hedging for EB at high prices. - Basis and inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [10] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. Looking ahead, soybean oil may face supply pressure and its basis may be under pressure; palm oil is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October; rapeseed oil may face supply shortages after the National Day, and its basis is firm, with the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter expected to provide some support [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,236 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 yuan or 0.86%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 166 yuan or 1.99%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 94 yuan or 0.93% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,190 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 60 yuan or 0.65%, and the spot basis was P01 - 46, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 130 yuan or 1.53%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 218, a week-on-week increase of 36 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 90 yuan or 0.87%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 218, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan [1] 3.2 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month. During the week of September 19 - 25, 4 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, all with a shipment date of October, and 1 vessel was cancelled, with a shipment date of November [2] - Demand: As of the week of September 25, the trading volume of palm oil at key domestic oil mills was 8,634 tons, an increase of 5,391 tons or 166.23% from the previous week [2] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 58.51 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.64 tons or 8.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.28 tons or 23.87% [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month-on-month increase of 609,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11%. From January - August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 73.312 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.833 million tons or 4%. It is estimated that 10.3 million tons will arrive in September, 9 million tons in October, and 7.5 million tons in November. The purchase of vessels for the September - October shipment period has basically been completed, but the purchase progress for the November - January shipment period is slow [3] - Demand: During this statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil at key domestic oil mills was 75,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 15,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 17.58% [3] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2359 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,300 tons or 1.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 105,700 tons or 9.35% [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of September 19, the rapeseed crushing volume at coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. After the implementation of the anti-dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed, domestic oil mills will generally face a shortage of raw materials after the National Day, leading to a shutdown wave in the industry. Currently, the market is pinning its hopes on the arrival schedule of Australian rapeseed [4] - Demand: In September, the rigid demand brought by the start of the school term boosted the consumption of oils, and the market's pick-up pace significantly accelerated [5] - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory at coastal oil mills was 75,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,000 tons [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - This week, the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. The temporary exemption of export tariffs on agricultural products in Argentina at the beginning of the week led to a sharp decline in soybean oil prices, and palm oil was also dragged down. Rapeseed oil continued to perform strongly due to factors such as tight rapeseed supply, stagnant imports of Canadian rapeseed, and continuous destocking of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [5] 3.6 Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The supply pressure may continue, and the basis may face pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-US trade relations [6] - Palm oil: It is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October [7] - Rapeseed oil: After the National Day, it may face supply shortages, and the basis is firm. The traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter is expected to provide some support. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-Canadian trade relations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the upcoming National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), the market has certain seasonal patterns, such as the risk of pre - holiday adjustment in the stock index and post - holiday upward movement, and pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair of the RMB exchange rate. Gold has a relatively low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and there may be opportunities in commodity sectors like coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials in the month after the holiday [1]. - The gap between strong domestic expectations and weak reality has intensified. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure increased. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. - The outlook for US inflation is clearer. The US economic data in August shows a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing index in contraction, CPI rising, PPI falling, and employment data underperforming expectations, which further supports the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [2]. - In the commodity market, the black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals and investment opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk Management**: During the National Day holiday, there are 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index has a risk of pre - holiday adjustment and post - holiday rise, and the RMB exchange rate has a pattern of pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair. Gold has a low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and post - holiday opportunities can be found in coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials. Important events during the holiday include the US government's temporary spending bill, US September non - farm payroll data, and the OPEC+ meeting [1]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: In August, China's economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. US Economic Situation - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The US ISM manufacturing index in August was in contraction for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI rose to 2.9% year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The employment data was worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth [2]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and new home sales unexpectedly soared to an annualized 800,000 units. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs on various imported products [2]. Commodity Market - **Black and New Energy Metal Sectors**: These sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently [3]. - **Precious Metals and Agricultural Products**: Precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Although gold experienced "selling on the fact" after the Fed's interest rate cut, it is still expected to strengthen due to the de - dollarization trend and the interest rate cut cycle. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental support and are subject to Sino - US negotiation disturbances [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sectors**: The medium - term fundamental supply of energy is considered relatively loose, as OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Heat Map**: It shows various economic indicators such as GDP growth, investment, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and trade from January 2024 to September 2025, reflecting the overall economic situation of the US [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: Presents data on GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus in Europe from October 2024 to September 2025 [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: Displays China's GDP growth, trade, investment, consumption, inflation, financial, and fiscal data from September 2024 to August 2025, showing the characteristics of China's economic operation [9].

黑色建材周报 | 2025-09-28 进入用煤淡季，煤炭需求转弱 市场分析 期货与现货价格：产地指数：截至9月26日，榆林5800大卡指数601.0元/吨，周环比上涨3元/吨；鄂尔多斯5500大卡 指数534.0元/吨，周环比上涨13元/吨；大同5500大卡指数595.0元/吨；周环比上涨19元/吨。港口指数：截至9月26 日， CCI进口4700指数报69.7美元/吨，周环比上涨0.4美元/吨，CCI进口3800指数报54.0美元/吨，周环比上涨0.3美 元/吨。 港口方面：截至到9月26日，北方港港口总库存2079万吨，较上周增加18万吨，港口库存持续累积。 电厂方面：截至到9月26日，沿海 6大电厂煤炭库存 1386万吨，环比增加41.3万吨；平均可用天数为 16天，环比 增加1天；沿海六大电厂日耗85.6万吨，环比减少2.1万吨。 整体来看：产地方面，近期主产地供应明显增加，产能维持高位。下游冶金、化工等非电按需采购，产区价格小 幅上涨。港口方面，港口受调入地位影响，库存持续增加，预计后期电厂日耗持续回落，贸易商报价维稳，优质 低硫资源偏紧。进口方面，进口市场整体活跃度不高，下游电厂库存相对充足，当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are short - term neutral and medium - term bearish. For PX, the supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is significantly weakened, with the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation and weakened support below. For TA, the near - term fundamentals are okay, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure due to new device commissioning expectations. For PF, the short - term supply - demand is better than the raw material end, but the upward momentum is weak. For PR, the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5][6]. 2. Core View of the Report - Cost side: Oil prices rebounded this week. Geopolitical factors such as Ukraine's attacks on Russia and EU sanctions on "shadow oil tanker fleets" affected the market. The development of the geopolitical situation and the OPEC meeting during the National Day should be followed up [1]. - PX: China's PX operating rate is 86.7% (up 0.5% week - on - week), and Asia's is 78% (down 0.3% week - on - week). The domestic PX load has gradually recovered, but the PXN is still under pressure due to the postponement of fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some devices. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weakened [1]. - TA: China's PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged week - on - week), and the spot processing fee is 205 yuan/ton. The PTA load has changed little, and the processing fee has recovered. The inventory accumulation in October - November is narrowed, but there is large inventory accumulation pressure in December [2]. - Demand: The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 70.0% (up 4.0% week - on - week), and the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (down 1.1% week - on - week). The weaving and texturing loads have increased, and the filament sales have improved, but the polyester load increase is limited, and the sustainability of demand improvement should be concerned [2]. - PF: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate is 95.4% (unchanged week - on - week). The supply - demand of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than the raw material end in the short term, and the demand at the low price is okay [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) is 67.8% (down 4.2%). The supply - demand pressure is still large under the commissioning pressure of new devices, and the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate in a range [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Spread - The report presents the trends and spreads of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, as well as the processing fees of PX, PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, etc. [10][11][12][16][26][29] PX and PTA Supply - It shows the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [46][47][52]. Inventory - Displays the social inventories of PTA and PX, and the warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [57][60][66]. Demand - Covers the sales of filaments and short - fibers, the polyester load, the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of filaments [68][72][74][77][82][84]. PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - Includes the load of polyester staple fiber, the factory's equity inventory days, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the operating rates of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and their production profits and inventories [92][96][97][98][101]. PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Presents the load of polyester bottle - chips, the factory's bottle - chip inventory days, the spot and export processing fees, and the export profits of bottle - chips [110][111][115].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3] - Options: On hold [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with silver prices breaking through $46 per ounce, reaching a 14 - year high. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path remains uncertain, but the market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts. Meanwhile, the resurgence of US tariffs has increased risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [1]. - Based on the current situation, gold may continue a relatively strong volatile trend, and silver shows strong performance based on rate - cut expectations. There is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio, but attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued to be strong. Fed Chair Powell emphasized the two - way nature of policy risks. US Treasury Secretary Besent believes that interest rates are still too high and need to be cut by at least 100 - 150 basis points. Many Fed officials have a dovish stance. The market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts, with an 87.7% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October according to Fedwatch. US President Trump plans to impose high tariffs on various imported goods starting from October 1 [1]. Fundamental - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts changed by 8397 kilograms to 65826 kilograms, and silver warehouse receipts changed by - 1177 kilograms to 1158266 kilograms. Comex gold inventory changed by 482874.92 ounces to 39946410.45 ounces, and Comex silver inventory changed by 6301249.93 ounces to 530344533.33 ounces. Gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 11.16 tons to 1005.72 tons, and silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 156.86 tons to 15362 tons. As of September 23, 2025, gold speculative net - long positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts, and silver net - long positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts. The CSI 300 index rose 1.07% compared to the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell 1.34%, and the photovoltaic sector rose 0.47%. The photovoltaic price index reached 15.73 as of September 22, 2025, up 0.53 from the previous period, and the photovoltaic manager index was 119.66 as of September 15, down 5.43 month - on - month [2]. Strategy - aspect - Gold: The Fed's rate - cut path is unclear, but dovish signals from many officials and the resurgence of US tariffs may lead to a relatively strong volatile trend in gold prices, with the price range between 855 yuan/gram - 875 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver: Silver prices are strong based on rate - cut expectations, and there is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio. One can continue to buy on dips for hedging, but pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3]. - Options: On hold [3]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2 - Report's Core View - This week, the bond market declined overall. At the beginning of the week, the three departments' press conference did not release further easing signals, and the market's expectations were disappointed. After Wednesday, as institutions bought long - term treasury bonds at low prices and the central bank resumed 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, the market gradually stabilized and rebounded. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates first rose and then fell due to the end - of - quarter factor, and the central bank carried out net MLF and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity [3] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Aspect - **Policy**: From August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The 24% tariff between China and the US will be suspended for 90 days from August 12. The government emphasizes measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand consumption and investment, and implement more proactive macro - policies [1] - **Inflation**: In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1] Capital Aspect - **Finance**: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed. The RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan in the first eight months, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan. The growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly [2] - **Central Bank**: On September 26, 2025, the central bank conducted 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. This week, the central bank conducted net MLF operations of 30 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations of 90 billion yuan [2][3] - **Money Market**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.53%, and 1.71% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] Market Aspect - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.34 yuan, 105.54 yuan, 107.68 yuan, and 114.19 yuan respectively. The weekly fluctuations were - 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.27%, and - 0.82% respectively [2] - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.54 yuan respectively [2] Strategy Aspect - **Single - side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the basis spread rebound of TL2512 [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silicon manganese: Volatile [3] - Silicon iron: Volatile [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The silicon manganese market consolidated this week. After the downstream pre-holiday restocking ended, the market showed weakness. The silicon iron futures first rose and then declined. Both are expected to fluctuate with the sector, and attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [1][2] - The supply of silicon manganese decreased this week, while the demand increased slightly. The supply of silicon iron increased, and the demand also increased. The overall supply of both is still relatively loose [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - Silicon manganese futures closed at 5,848 yuan/ton on Friday, down 116 yuan/ton from last Sunday. The spot price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [1][5] - Silicon iron futures closed at 5,660 yuan/ton on the last trading day of the week, down 76 yuan/ton from last week. The cash含税 ex-factory price of 72 silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 silicon iron was 5,900 - 6,200 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 44.18%, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous week. The daily output was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 335 tons [1][8] - The silicon iron output this week was 114,500 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week. The national operating rate was 35.33%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week [2][8] Demand - The demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products this week was 122,500 tons, an increase of 0.8% from the previous week [1][15] - The weekly demand for silicon iron in the five major steel products was 19,900 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week [2][15] Inventory - The inventory of silicon manganese alloy enterprises increased, while the factory inventory of silicon iron decreased [1][2][19]