Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but CPL and styrene开工 rates have declined, and there is still some finished - product inventory pressure downstream, with a drop in phenol - acetone开工 rate. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China has an impact, and BZ processing fees continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. - For styrene, the port inventory declined again during the week. The port basis and the 09 - 10 inter - period spread of futures rebounded from the bottom. Combined with the increase in downstream提货 volume, it reflects the speculative demand for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" has emerged. However, the production schedule of white goods at the terminal is still average, there is still inventory pressure for downstream PS and ABS, and the production profit of hard plastics is also average, so the sustainability of restocking is in doubt [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Figures include the relationship between the pure benzene main contract basis and the pure benzene main futures contract price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [8][12][18]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profit, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and pure benzene FOB South Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [20][23][34]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [40][42][45]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures display EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [52][54][56]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [60][64][81]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene [4]. - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and distant BZ2603 is high, and conduct reverse arbitrage when the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread is high; conduct reverse arbitrage when the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4].

原油日报 | 2025-08-07 特朗普对印度加征额外关税 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌81美分，收于每桶64.35美元，跌幅为1.24%；10月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌75美分，收于每桶66.89美元，跌幅为1.11%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.23%，报498元/桶。 2、 沙特将9月销往亚洲的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价（OSP）较阿曼/迪拜均价升水3.20美元/桶，8月的升水幅度为 2.20美元/桶。将9月销往美国的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价（OSP）较阿曼/迪拜均价升水4.2美元/桶，将9月销往西北 欧的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价（OSP）较阿曼/迪拜均价升水3.35美元/桶。 (来源：Bloomberg） 3、\t阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至8月4日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1907.2万桶， 较一周前增加202.4万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加14.5万桶至714万桶，中质馏分油库存增加15.9万桶至227.6万桶， 重质残渣燃料油库存增加172万桶至965.6万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、\t美国总统特朗普：与泽连斯基和普 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content, so this part is skipped. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The oil price is oscillating, and there are limited short - term market contradictions in the fuel oil market [1]. - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.6% at 2,835 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.31% at 3,550 yuan/ton [2]. - After continuous corrections, the crude oil price has stabilized and is currently in an oscillating state, with limited short - term directional guidance for FU and LU prices, while the medium - term expectation of a looser balance sheet potentially suppresses the energy sector [2]. - In the high - sulfur fuel oil market, the market structure continues to adjust, with crack spreads and monthly spreads oscillating weakly. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side lacks growth momentum. Although the power generation demand is boosted by the peak season, it lacks drivers beyond seasonality. In the short term, there is limited driving force, but considering the long - term trends, there is still structural support. If the crack spreads are fully adjusted and attract a significant increase in refinery demand, there may be an opportunity for the market structure to strengthen again [2]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited. However, as the overseas diesel shortage eases, the support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market may weaken, and the supply of components is expected to increase. In the medium term, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity, once the crack profit is appropriate, supply will be released. Moreover, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the market outlook is not optimistic [2]. Group 3: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: The outlook is oscillating [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The outlook is oscillating [3]. - Cross - variety: Positions in shorting the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) established earlier can be appropriately stopped for profit [3]. - Cross - period: FU reverse spread positions established earlier can be gradually stopped for profit [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The port accelerated inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol production remained at a high level, increasing the pressure of arrivals in August. The Xingxing MTO device in the port area started a one - month maintenance at the end of July. In the inland area, there will still be some maintenance in the northwest in August, and the production will not fully recover until late August. The traditional downstream demand showed certain resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol factories decreased further. Overall, the inland market was stronger than the port market [3] Group 2: Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal was 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 695 yuan/ton (+25). The inland methanol prices varied by region: Inner Mongolia North Line was 2110 yuan/ton (+25), Inner Mongolia South Line was 2100 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi was 2383 yuan/ton (+10), Henan was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Hebei was 2275 yuan/ton (+25). The inland factory inventory was 293,688 tons (-30,832), and the northwest factory inventory was 185,500 tons (-30,500). The inland factory's pending orders were 240,800 tons (+10,075), and the northwest factory's pending orders were 122,800 tons (+10,800) [1] Port Market - The methanol price in Taicang was 2388 yuan/ton (+15), the basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+16), CFR China was 268 US dollars/ton (+1), and the import price difference in East China was 13 yuan/ton (-3). The port inventory increased, with the total port inventory at 925,480 tons (+117,080), Jiangsu port inventory at 498,000 tons (+79,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 144,000 tons (-9000), and Guangdong port inventory at 170,000 tons (+15,000). The downstream MTO operating rate was 85.27% (+0.32%) [2] Regional Price Differences - There were various regional price differences, such as the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference of - 45 yuan/ton (-25), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference of - 272 yuan/ton (-10), etc [2] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Shrink the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4] Group 4: Report Directory Summary Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report included multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spread, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][22][24] Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures related to production profit (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference) were presented [26][34] Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures showed methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [36][38] Regional Price Differences - Figures presented various regional price differences, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [44][48][51] Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures showed the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][60]

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-07 山东主力下游采购价下调，烧碱走势趋弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5051元/吨（+9）；华东基差-161元/吨（+31）;华南基差-111元/吨（+21）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4890元/吨（+40）；华南电石法报价4940元/吨（+30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨（+113）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨（+27）；PVC出口利润10.0美元/吨（-2.7）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存34.5万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存44.8万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率74.42%（-4.79%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%（+3.29%）；PVC开工率73.26%（-2.55%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量85.4万吨（+5.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2474元/吨（-32）；山东32%液碱基差89元/吨（+32）。 策略 PVC 单边：观望。 跨期：V09-01跨期逢高做 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [2] Core View of the Report - The soybean market is under supply pressure, with an increase in low - protein soybean supply due to continuous auctions by Cofco, a tightening of high - protein soybeans in traders' hands, and an expected further increase in supply as Hubei's new soybeans are gradually launched. The peanut market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a relatively light spot trading atmosphere, and peanut prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2509 contract was 4118.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.05%. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 182, a change of -2 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14%. Northeast soybean prices were stable today, with high - protein soybean quotes firm due to scarce supply. Douyi continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The continuous auctions by Cofco increased the supply of low - protein soybean spots, the high - protein soybeans in traders' hands became tighter, the market was in a wait - and - see mood, and the supply would increase as Hubei's new soybeans were launched [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8092.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.07%. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8500.00 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day, an increase of +0.00%. The spot basis was PK10 + 108.00, a change of -6.00 from the previous day, a decrease of -5.26%. The domestic peanut market was oscillating steadily yesterday, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.25 yuan/jin. The shipping speed in the producing areas has accelerated slightly, mainly inventory transactions. The market was generally quiet, and prices were basically stable. Peanuts continued their narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The domestic peanut market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the trading atmosphere was light. Given the weak terminal demand and the slow progress of new peanut listing, the overall trading atmosphere remained cautious. Peanut prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on price fluctuations in the energy and black upstream sectors, as well as policy implementation in high - tech and transportation infrastructure industries [1][2]. - It also provides an overview of the current situation in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of different industries, including price changes,开工率, and sales volume [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: High - temperature and high - humidity weather has led to a continuous increase in the national power consumption level. From August 4th to 6th, the power load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high of 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak of 1.18 billion kilowatts. Shanghai has issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry, aiming to achieve more than 20 core algorithm and technology breakthroughs by 2027, with the core industry scale exceeding 50 billion yuan [1]. - **Service Industry**: Three departments including the Ministry of Transport have issued a plan for the new round of rural road improvement, aiming to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027 [2]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices have dropped significantly recently. Egg prices and glass prices have also declined [3]. - **Mid - stream**: The operating rate of PTA has decreased, while that of pig products has increased slightly [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three - year low. Domestic film box office has increased during the summer vacation [3]. 3.3. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides credit spread data for various industries as of August 7th, showing different trends in each industry's credit spreads compared to the previous year, the first quarter, one month ago, and last week [46]. 3.4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report presents price data for multiple industries as of August 6th, including agriculture, non - ferrous metals, black metals, non - metals, energy, chemicals, and real estate. Most prices have shown a downward trend, with some exceptions such as coal prices [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The spot premium and discount of zinc are difficult to improve. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance, with a cautious bearish view on unilateral trading and a neutral view on arbitrage [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$13.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,330 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -20 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,310 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -40 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,360 yuan per ton and closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,569 lots, and the open interest was 94,254 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,415 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a change of -3,050 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material reserves and weak purchasing willingness. The market trading is sluggish, and the overall premium and discount shows a stable - to - weak trend [5]. - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure continues to increase [5]. - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, the domestic mine TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, the smelting profit has increased, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high [5]. - **Consumption**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is in an accumulation trend, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Currently, it is the consumption off - season, and combined with supply pressure, the zinc price is under great pressure [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The shipping company's prices are adjusted frequently. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's WEEK34 prices will be revised again. The freight rate has entered a downward cycle, and the prices of different alliances are following the decline. There are different characteristics and risks for different contract months, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the monthly and weekly average capacities of China - European base ports in August and September vary, with additional overtime ships added by Maersk and OA Alliance [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's WEEK32 - 34 quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam decreased from 1846/3102 to 1590/2660, and different shipping companies' quotes for different time periods also have differences [1]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, discussing the Middle East situation, and Russia reiterated its stance on resolving regional issues through peaceful means [2]. 3. Shipping Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity of China - European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September is 297,100 TEU. There are 4 empty sailings in August (all from the OA Alliance) and 2 TBNs in September. Maersk added 2 overtime ships in August, and the OA Alliance added 3 overtime ships [3]. 4. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The top of the freight rate has appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. In normal years, October prices are 20% - 30% lower than August prices. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price during the downward cycle [5]. - **December Contract**: The off - peak and peak season rules still exist, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is usually high, and shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level [6]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 6, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 78,020 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 63,874 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. On August 1, the SCFI prices for different routes are also given [7]. 6. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market is range - bound, but the oil market will turn from boom to bust in the second half of the year as global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates and new supplies enter the market. Unless the US increases sanctions on Russia, leading to a significant decline in supply [1]. - The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level. Although the short - term supply - demand situation has improved due to PTA maintenance, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in August. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of major suppliers [1][2]. - The polyester load remains firm in the short term, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The improvement of the demand side still needs to wait for the seasonal peak - season orders, which may start gradually in late August [2]. - PF is dragged down by downstream production cuts, with low inventory - holding willingness, and the near - month contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory warehouse receipt cancellation. The PR processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton after repair [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories [37][40][41] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filaments, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, and the operating rates and processing fees of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [71][72][80] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [90][92][99]