农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 综合来看，从能繁的环比数据来看，未来生猪的供应仍将保持增长状态，预计散户的出栏增长会较为明显。由于 10月的长假影响了生猪出栏的进度，会导致节后集团出栏节奏继续加快。但节后的需求端预计会出现短时间的下 降，供大于求的情况可能会进一步加剧，整体供应压力将会持续释放。 策略 谨慎偏空 现货持续下跌，猪价偏弱运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约11595元/吨，较前交易日变动-760.00元/吨，幅度-6.15%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.22元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.49元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-375，较前交易日变动-590；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.69元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤，现货基差LH11+95，较前交易日变动-410；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.15元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差LH11-445，较前交易日变动+70。 据农业农村部监测，10月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.47，比节前下降0.29个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为119 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and may soon exceed the five - year average. The supply pressure is prominent, and the domestic inventory build - up is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. Zinc prices may be under pressure if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories should be noted [4] Group 3: Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $59.11 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan, with a premium of - 35 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On October 9, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,040 yuan per ton, closed at 22,315 yuan per ton, up 380 yuan. The trading volume was 137,234 lots, and the open interest was 113,253 lots. The highest price was 22,340 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 150,200 tons, a change of 8,800 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 38,250 tons, with no change from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, and smelting profits are increasing, leading to high smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory build - up is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4] Group 5: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View - After the National Day holiday, there may be a situation where the operating rate of secondary lead production recovers while battery consumption declines slightly. However, the tight supply pattern at the mine end remains unchanged. Coupled with the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and the driving effect of the sharp rise of precious metals on various non - ferrous metal varieties, it is recommended to mainly use bargain - hunting buying hedging for lead prices at present [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On October 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.30/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM lead spot prices in different regions had different changes, and lead scrap prices remained unchanged [1] - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,199 lots, a decrease of 5,406 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 41,077 lots, a decrease of 1,556 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.44% from the afternoon closing price. After the holiday, the lead ingot inventory of smelters in Henan and Hunan increased, and the market transaction was weak [2] - **Inventory**: On October 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons compared with the previous week. As of October 9, the LME lead inventory was 237,450 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use bargain - hunting buying hedging for lead prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the inventory of pure benzene decreased again, but the inventory pressure of styrene still exists. For pure benzene, although the port inventory decreased after the holiday and downstream提货 was still active, there are doubts about the long - term procurement sustainability of some downstream products. For styrene, the port inventory continued to accumulate slightly after the holiday, with high inventory pressure, and the downstream提货 performance was average. The supply pressure is expected to increase both domestically and from overseas imports [1][2]. - It is recommended to short - sell BZ and EB on rallies for hedging, do reverse hedging on the spread of EB2511 - EB2512 on rallies, and narrow the spread of EB2512 - BZ2503 on rallies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - The basis of pure benzene's main contract is - 13 yuan/ton (- 73), and the spread between East China's pure benzene spot and M2 is 35 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton). The basis of styrene's main contract is - 28 yuan/ton (+ 7 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 126 dollars/ton (+ 4 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+ 7 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 69.6 dollars/ton (- 5.0 dollars/ton). Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 486 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 9.10 tons (- 1.50 tons). Styrene: East China port inventory is 201,900 tons (+ 4,400 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 116,400 tons (+ 9,600 tons). The operating rate of pure benzene's downstream products such as aniline and adipic acid increased, and the operating rate of styrene is 73.6% (+ 2.4%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is 228 yuan/ton (- 90 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 72 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 34 yuan/ton (- 175 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 40.74% (- 2.37%), PS operating rate is 54.60% (- 1.70%), ABS operating rate is 72.50% (+ 1.50%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1900 yuan/ton (+ 110), phenol - acetone production profit is - 332 yuan/ton (+ 51), aniline production profit is 478 yuan/ton (+ 140), adipic acid production profit is - 1325 yuan/ton (- 19). Caprolactam operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (- 1.00%), aniline operating rate is 77.16% (+ 1.12%), adipic acid operating rate is 66.90% (+ 4.00%) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: PL01 - 02 short at high prices; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, a PDH plant in Shandong was overhauled ahead of schedule during the holiday, and there are plans for shutdown and overhaul of PDH plants in Bohua and Hebei Haiwei after the holiday. The restart of Ningbo Jinfa's Phase I PDH was postponed to the end of October, providing support to the supply side. The spot price of propylene in Shandong stopped falling and rose slightly, while the futures price was still dragged down by the cost side [2]. - On the demand side, downstream factories reduced their pre - holiday inventory replenishment and were still constrained by cost pressure. The inventory replenishment demand was poor, and they mainly made rigid purchases at low prices. The low propylene price drove some PP plants that purchase externally to restart before the holiday. Although some phenol - acetone and propylene oxide plants are expected to shut down, the demand for polypropylene, the main downstream product, may increase. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the demand side [2]. - On the cost side, international oil prices continued to be under pressure due to weak demand. The official price of Saudi CP in October was significantly lowered, and the price of propane in the external market dropped sharply, weakening the cost support for propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures include propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil production capacity utilization rate of major refineries [15][23][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures cover the difference between FOB in South Korea and CFR in China, the difference between CFR in Japan and CFR in China, the difference between CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Profit and Operating Rate of Propylene Downstream Products - The report shows the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][41][44] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The market's weak reality persists, and steel prices are oscillating. The glass and soda ash markets have a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with prices oscillating. The dual - silicon market has high finished product inventories, and alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Yesterday, glass futures oscillated with large intraday fluctuations and active trading. The main 2601 contract fell 0.98% at the close. Spot market quotes were generally stable, but trading sentiment weakened. Domestic strong policy expectations intermittently boosted low - valued commodity prices, disturbing the market. Currently, glass production is generally stable, and overall rigid demand has limited changes. The weak fundamentals still strongly suppress prices, and policy changes and glass supply should be continuously monitored [1] - Soda Ash: Yesterday, soda ash futures oscillated weakly with active trading. The main 2601 contract fell 1.73% at the close, and all contracts declined to varying degrees. In the spot market, some heavy - soda quotes were lowered, and the spot - futures trading situation was good. Domestic strong policy expectations intermittently boosted low - valued commodity prices, disturbing the market. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains, and the subsequent supply pressure will further increase. The spot - futures price premium stimulates spot - futures purchases, strongly suppressing near - term prices. Supply changes and downstream demand should be continuously monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Dual - Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Since the National Day holiday, the inventory accumulation of steel products, mainly building materials, has exceeded market expectations. Although there was a rebound in the afternoon affected by coking coal, the rebound was still weak. The main contract closed at 5768 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. After the holiday, the market was stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5620 - 5670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Overall, silicomanganese production remained high and stable, and downstream demand for silicomanganese was resilient. There was still support for silicomanganese prices after the holiday. In the long term, the supply - demand of the silicomanganese industry is relatively loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector. Changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies should be monitored [3] - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures showed a weak downward trend. The main contract closed at 5472 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, market sentiment worsened, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5800 - 6100 yuan/ton. Overall, ferrosilicon production in September remained high, but with continuous profit compression, pre - holiday sentiment declined, and the improvement in ferrosilicon demand during the traditional peak season was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector, and cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies should be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] Core Views - The steel market continues to face weak realities, with steel prices oscillating. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. The fundamentals of finished products have not changed, and the high iron - water cost provides support. Attention should be paid to the impact of upcoming meetings on the market and subsequent changes in supply - demand patterns [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with prices fluctuating within a range. Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices, and the current overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high. Under the current situation of both supply and demand being strong, the price is expected to remain range - bound [3]. - The coking coal and coke market shows a cautious sentiment, with prices fluctuating. After the holiday, coking coal supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains in a loose pattern. Coke supply has slightly decreased due to weather - related logistics disruptions, and market demand has not improved significantly [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is in the off - season, with downstream daily consumption declining and coal prices showing a weak trend. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summaries by Related Content Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3096 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3286 yuan/ton. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62 million tons, and total inventory was 659.64 million tons, an increase of 57.39 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons, and total inventory was 329.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.92 million tons. The national building materials trading volume was 11.99 million tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For building materials, the traditional peak season is more than half over, terminal demand is still weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. For plates, after the holiday, prices are relatively stable, and consumption shows resilience. In the short - term, the fundamentals of finished products remain unchanged, and high iron - water costs provide support [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price rose slightly. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports increased. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This period's hot - metal production decreased by 0.27 million tons week - on - week. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 98.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 397.46%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 145.5 million tons (11 transactions), a week - on - week decrease of 40% (with the mine's transaction volume being 128.5 million tons) [3]. - **Logic and View**: Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices. Currently, the overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high, supply is relatively loose at high prices, and there is strong consumption resilience under high hot - metal production. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In the short - term, with both supply and demand being strong, the price will remain range - bound [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke showed an oscillating trend. As of the close, the coking coal 2601 contract rose 1.57%, and the coke 2601 contract rose 0.52%. For imported coal, customs clearance has resumed, traders' enthusiasm for quoting is average, prices fluctuate with the market, and the trading atmosphere is cold [5]. - **Logic and View**: For coking coal, after the holiday, supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains loose. In the short - term, demand is mainly for inventory consumption, and downstream enterprises' purchasing sentiment is cautious. For coke, affected by northern weather, logistics and transportation are blocked, supply has slightly decreased, and downstream steel mills' profits have declined, with purchases mainly for rigid demand, and market demand has not improved significantly [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, the prices of thermal coal in major production areas fluctuated slightly. It is the off - season, the number of coal - pulling trucks at stations and some mines has significantly decreased, and terminal procurement is strongly pressing down prices. In the port market, the sentiment is average, downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the transaction price center has slightly declined. For imported coal, prices are stable, trading activity has slightly decreased, and market participants have different views on the future market, with overall trading being cold [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: It is the off - season for thermal coal, downstream daily consumption has declined, and port inventories have accumulated. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for L and PP [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the accumulation of petrochemical inventory, new device production, and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply increases significantly, while the demand improvement is limited, and the cost - side support weakens. For PP, the supply is restricted by high raw material prices and maintenance, the demand recovery is slow, and the cost support is weak. Overall, the weak demand restricts the upward space of polyolefins, and PP's profit level also limits its downward space [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7077 yuan/ton (-76), and that of the PP main contract is 6745 yuan/ton (-107). LL North China spot is 7000 yuan/ton (-120), LL East China spot is 7140 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -77 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (+76), and PP East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (+107) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 247.7 yuan/ton (+72.5), PP oil - based production profit is -382.3 yuan/ton (+72.5), and PDH - based PP production profit is -224.0 yuan/ton (+40.0) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -41.5 yuan/ton (-0.1), PP import profit is -517.2 yuan/ton (-0.1), and PP export profit is 13.4 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 35.6% (+2.8%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 52.9% (+0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.3% (+0.4%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the petrochemical inventory accumulates significantly. The supply pressure from new device production and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend. The supply increases due to the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the resumption of previous maintenance devices, and concentrated arrival of imported resources. In October, the demand in the "Silver October" period has no obvious improvement, the procurement rhythm is slow, and the downstream follow - up is less than expected. The cost - side support weakens due to OPEC+ increasing oil production [2]. - **PP**: The supply is restricted by high propylene prices, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises decreases. In October, a 400,000 - ton/year device in Guangxi is expected to be put into production, but the return of some devices may be blocked. The demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season fails to meet expectations, the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the cost support is weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-10 节后累库，关注下游采购情况 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4769元/吨（-70）；华东基差-149元/吨（-10）;华南基差-59元/吨（+20）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4620元/吨（-80）；华南电石法报价4710元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2890元/吨（+0）；电石利润48元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-775元/吨（+9）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-558元/吨（+87）；PVC出口利润8.3美元/吨（+2.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.0万吨（-1.9）；PVC社会库存53.8万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率81.76%（+1.75%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.54%（+1.33%）；PVC开工率80.80%（+1.63%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.6万吨（+1.7）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1300元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1509元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the domestic rubber dumping news was confirmed before the holiday, negative news was exhausted, and market pessimism decreased. During the holiday, rainfall in Thailand decreased, and raw material prices declined slightly. Supported by demand, the decline in raw material prices was small. With the reduction of rainfall, the output of natural rubber is expected to continue to rise. The return of the heavy - truck sales growth in September in China and the resumption of tire factory operating rates after the long - holiday will lead to a situation of strong supply and demand for natural rubber. NR may rebound due to its large previous decline, while RU still has inventory pressure. The short - term price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow. For BR, although there are still device overhauls in October, the overall supply remains abundant. After the long - holiday, the increase in tire factory operating rates will support the price of BR, but the price of upstream butadiene raw materials may have a negative impact [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,415 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,325 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August 2025 and an 82% increase from the 58,000 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Rubber Imports - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 4.73% increase from the previous month and a 7.79% increase year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 5.373 million tons, a 19.06% cumulative increase year - on - year [2] Tire Exports - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase year - on - year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a 4.8% increase year - on - year; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year - on - year. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 47.86 billion pieces, a 5.6% increase year - on - year [2] Automobile Production, Sales and Exports - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% increase year - on - year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% increase year - on - year. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% increase year - on - year [3] Rubber Exports from Cote d'Ivoire - According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume from Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the RU basis was - 715 yuan/ton (- 35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 565 yuan/ton (+ 135), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,969 yuan/ton (+ 329.89), the NR basis was 760.00 yuan/ton (- 72.00); the price of whole - latex was 14,700 yuan/ton (+ 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+ 40), the spread between whole - latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (+ 250); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,050 yuan/ton (+ 250) [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.47 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.47), the price of Thai glue was 53.90 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.45) [4][5] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 149,810 tons (+ 390), and the NR futures inventory was 42,034 tons (- 908) [6] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (- 175), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,100 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,773 yuan/ton (unchanged) [6] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.95% (+ 2.90%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (unchanged), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (unchanged) [6] Strategy - **Natural Rubber (RU and NR)**: Maintain a neutral view. After the domestic rubber dumping news was confirmed before the holiday, negative news was exhausted, and market pessimism decreased. During the holiday, rainfall in Thailand decreased, and raw material prices declined slightly. Supported by demand, the decline in raw material prices was small. With the reduction of rainfall, the output of natural rubber is expected to continue to rise. The return of the heavy - truck sales growth in September in China and the resumption of tire factory operating rates after the long - holiday will lead to a situation of strong supply and demand for natural rubber. NR may rebound due to its large previous decline, while RU still has inventory pressure. The short - term price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow [7] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: Maintain a neutral view. There are still device overhauls for the upstream of butadiene rubber in October, and the output may be the same as in September. However, the overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the abundant supply situation remains unchanged. After the long - holiday, the increase in tire factory operating rates will support the price of butadiene rubber, but the price of upstream butadiene raw materials may have a negative impact [7]