Report Summary Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term short - position allocation for oil prices, with oil prices expected to trade in a range [3] Core Viewpoints - India responded strongly to Trump's threat of sanctions on countries buying Russian energy, indicating it would defend its national interests and suggesting its policy of purchasing Russian oil won't change [2] - Oil prices have continued to decline due to concerns about demand and increased OPEC+ supply, but the potential disruption of Russian oil exports limits the decline. The future of oil prices largely depends on Trump's decision on sanctions against Russia [1][5] Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.70% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a 1.63% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.30% at 503 yuan per barrel [1] - The price of AI - 95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange hit a record high, exceeding 77,000 rubles ($964.6) per ton. The market attributes the price increase to the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries on August 2nd, which damaged crude oil processing facilities with a total capacity of about 40,000 tons per day, and repairs are expected to take 1 to 6 months [1] - BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said that the growth of non - OPEC oil supply will peak in early 2026, while demand remains strong. He expects non - OPEC supply to be basically flat 12 to 18 months after February or March next year. Oil market demand is still "quite strong" and is expected to grow this year and next year, with petrochemical products leading consumption next year. Developments related to sanctions on Russia and Iran are the main drivers of oil price increases [1] - US President Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after a meeting on Wednesday. When asked about imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, he said it was quite possible [1] Investment Logic - India responded strongly to Trump's threats of tariffs on Russian oil imports, stating it would defend national interests and accusing Western countries of hypocrisy. The market believes India's policy of purchasing Russian oil will not change as it can't find alternative sources, and even if there are alternatives, the volume is expected to be very small [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to trade in a range, with a mid - term short - position allocation [3]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-06 宏观转暖，聚烯烃小幅提振 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7323元/吨（+44），PP主力合约收盘价为7095元/吨（+21），LL华北现货为7200 元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7040元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为-123元/吨（-34）， LL华东基差为-43元/吨（-44）， PP华东基差为-55元/吨（-41）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.1%（+2.1%），PP开工率为76.9%（+0.0%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为204.4元/吨（+62.9），PP油制生产利润为-255.6元/吨（+62.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为330.4元/吨（+59.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-70.6元/吨（-93.9），PP进口利润为-488.7元/吨（+16.9），PP出口利润为28.1美元/吨（-2.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.6%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为41.1%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The recent main driver of lithium carbonate is the disturbance at the mining end. Due to the approaching expiration of mining licenses of some mines in Jiangxi and the impact on mining in some African mines, and there is no clear conclusion about the disturbance, the futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [2] 3. Summary by Related Sections Market Analysis - On August 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 68,840 yuan/ton and closed at 67,840 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price down 2.39% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 437,207 lots, and the open interest was 232,062 lots (compared to 215,949 lots in the previous trading day). The current basis was 1,400 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 14,443 lots, a change of 1,840 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,600 - 72,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,500 - 69,700 yuan/ton, also down 150 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Based on the weekly data of the first four weeks of July, the estimated total retail sales in July were about 1.78 million units, flat year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month. New energy vehicle retail sales were 950,000 units, down 14% month - on - month and up 8% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of about 53% - 54% [1] Strategy - The recent main driver of lithium carbonate is the mining - end disturbance. Since there is no clear conclusion about the disturbance, the futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [2] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None; Inter - delivery spread: None; Inter - commodity: None; Futures - cash: None; Options: None [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [1][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Under the dual effect of increased supply from continuous auctions by Sinograin and the entry of new - season soybeans in the South, the upward momentum of soybean prices is insufficient; the decline of the main soybean contract has moderated, and attention should be paid to the drought in some soybean - producing areas [1][2] - The center of the main peanut contract continues to move down. In the short - term, both buyers and sellers are cautious during the new - old alternation period, and the market shows rational and rigid demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract yesterday was 4116.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.02% [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A09 + 184, a change of + 1 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] - Market news: Soybean prices in the Northeast remained stable yesterday, but high - quality high - end quotes decreased; the main soybean contract's decline moderated, and soybean supply increased due to auctions and new - season soybeans. Some soybean - producing areas faced drought [1][2] Strategy - Neutral [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8086.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of + 0.02% [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8500.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the spot basis was PK10 + 114.00, a change of - 2.00 from the previous day, a decrease of - 1.72% [3] - Market news: The domestic peanut market declined yesterday, with an average price of 4.25 yuan/jin for common peanuts. The market is in the new - old alternation period, and traders are cautious in purchasing [3] Strategy - Neutral [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unavailable 2. Core Viewpoints - The rigid demand for asphalt is weak, and the market trading is relatively light [1] - The cost - side support for asphalt has weakened due to the continuous decline in crude oil prices, and the price trend will marginally weaken if oil prices continue to fall. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory and limited short - term excess pressure, but there is limited upward drive from the fundamentals [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 5th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,520 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 208,129 lots, a decrease of 3,838 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 128,452 lots, a decrease of 11,859 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,570 - 3,970 yuan/ton; South China 3,560 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, East China, and South China decreased, while other regions remained stable [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol has not changed significantly, and the basis is weakly consolidating. The port is experiencing inventory accumulation, with the basis continuing to be weak, while the inland is stronger than the port. The overall pattern is that the inland market is more robust [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA09 - 01) [6][10][23] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the profit situation of methanol production (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][31] 3.3 Methanol开工, Inventory - Data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P开工 rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol开工 rate (including integrated units) are presented [34][36] 3.4 Regional Spreads - The report provides information on regional price differences, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Northwest, Taicang - Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong - East China [38][49] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit [54][56] 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] - **Inter - period**: For the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread, conduct a reverse spread when the spread is high [3] - **Cross - variety**: When the spread is high, reduce the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the crude oil price has weakened, driving down the unilateral prices of FU and LU. The expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet potentially suppresses the energy sector [2]. - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, the market structure has been weak recently, and the crack spread has significantly declined from its high. Currently, the spot supply is relatively abundant, while the demand lacks growth momentum. Egypt, which had strong demand previously, has shown signs of slower procurement. In July, Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil arrivals were 610,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from June, and the estimated imports in August are only 260,000 tons. After increasing LNG imports, the raw material gap in power plants has been partially filled, leading to a marginal decline in the substitution demand for fuel oil. Looking forward, the structural positive factors for high-sulfur fuel oil have not completely disappeared. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [2]. - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, the current market pressure is limited. However, as the tight situation of overseas diesel eases, the support for the low-sulfur fuel oil market may weaken, and the supply of components is expected to increase. In the medium term, due to the relatively abundant remaining capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and the market outlook remains pessimistic [2]. 3. Strategy Summary - High-sulfur: Take appropriate profit on the previous short position of FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [3] - Low-sulfur: No specific strategy mentioned [3] - Cross-variety: Take appropriate profit on the previous short position of FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [3] - Cross-period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse arbitrage position [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3] 4. Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan/ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, for the trading strategy of ethylene glycol, the unilateral strategy is rated as neutral [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,399 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.23%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.11%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 79 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. On Tuesday afternoon, driven by the temporary shutdown of the Malaysian oil plant and the rebound of coking coal prices, the ethylene glycol futures price rose [1]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the production profit of coal - made syngas - based EG was 2 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 516,000 tons, down 5,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 427,000 tons, down 48,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 103,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 138,000 tons, and it is expected that the main ports will accumulate inventory [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the import is expected to increase. On the demand side, terminal replenishment in July significantly relieved the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign vessels, and the inventory will slightly accumulate. It is expected that the port inventory will remain low and slightly increase in August [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,399 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.23%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.11%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 79 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the production profit of coal - made syngas - based EG was 2 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The domestic synthetic gas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions [1][2]. International Spread - The report does not provide specific data on international spreads, but only mentions a chart of the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - In July, terminal replenishment significantly relieved the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 516,000 tons, down 5,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 427,000 tons, down 48,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 103,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 138,000 tons, and it is expected that the main ports will accumulate inventory. In early August, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign vessels, and the inventory will slightly accumulate. It is expected that the port inventory will remain low and slightly increase in August [1][2]. 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. With the rebound of coking coal prices, attention should be paid to cost changes. - **Inter - period**: No specific strategy is proposed. - **Inter - commodity**: No specific strategy is proposed [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal demand for lead during the peak season is not evident, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition phase between the off - season and peak season. Although the terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the foundation for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, it is advisable to gradually attempt to buy on dips for hedging, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.86/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead scrap - refined spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,133 lots, a decrease of 6,065 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 72,083 lots, an increase of 753 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,755 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 5, the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SMM1 lead price dropped by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers offered discounts of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or 100 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering a 120 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at par with the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Jiangxi, suppliers offered a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. Due to the weakening of lead prices, downstream buyers were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and the trading volume in some regions improved compared to the previous day [2]