1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is expected to increase with new capacity coming online, while demand is generally weak. Social inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The future trend depends on policies such as anti - involution and real - estate development policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is affected by increased device maintenance, and demand varies in different sectors. The price may be supported by the expected alumina plant production in Guangxi, but costs also play a role [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,601 yuan/ton (-7), the East China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (-13), and the South China basis is - 11 yuan/ton (-3) [1] - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,590 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The blue carbon price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is - 125 yuan/ton (-25), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 820 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 491 yuan/ton (-26), and the PVC export profit is - 1.2 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1] - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: PVC factory inventory is 32.2 tons (-1.2), social inventory is 53.2 tons (-1.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.9 tons (-4.3) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,291 yuan/ton (-36), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 147 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,442 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 776.0 yuan/ton (-31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 30.97 yuan/ton (-6.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate is 85.37% (+0.12%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes into production, while demand is weak with a general purchasing sentiment. Social inventory is decreasing slightly but still high. The futures price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [3] Caustic Soda - Supply is affected by increased device maintenance. Demand varies, with alumina plants in Shandong reducing purchase prices. The price may be supported by the expected alumina production in Guangxi, and costs also play a role [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound - Inter - delivery: Long SH12 and short SH01 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [5]

Group 1: Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18 cents, closing at $59.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 19 cents, closing at $64.20 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The main SC crude oil contract rose 0.24%, closing at 462 yuan per barrel [1] - Ukraine's General Staff claimed to have attacked the Novogubyshevsk Refinery of Rosneft in the Samara region of Russia, the latest in a series of attacks on Russia's fuel production industry in the country's deep - seated areas [1] - Serbian President Vucic said on October 16 that the government was willing to repurchase the controlling stake held by Gazprom at a premium to help NIS, the country's only refinery, get out of the US sanctions dilemma [1] - The Prime Minister of Iraq told the former CEO of Lukoil that Iraq remained committed to stabilizing the global oil market, and Lukoil's West Qurna oil field continued to produce about 480,000 barrels of oil per day [1] - The analysis of the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) pointed out that sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, cutting Russia's oil revenue and driving Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Media reported that the loading operations at the Sheskharis Oil Terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, had resumed after last week's attack. However, satellite images showed that the loading of Urals crude oil was still interrupted, and two berths at the Sheskharis Port were not operating normally. The loading speed of the Sheskharis Oil Terminal, especially for Urals crude oil, was still below normal levels. The port used to export about 500,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil [2] Group 3: Strategy - Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and a medium - term short position is recommended (shorting the monthly spread, Brent, or WTI) [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include tighter supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East [4]

Industry Overview Upstream - Nickel prices declined, while aluminum prices slightly rebounded in the non-ferrous sector [2] - Glass prices slightly decreased in the black sector [2] - Egg prices slightly dropped in the agricultural sector [2] Midstream - The PX开工率 remained at a high level, while the PTA开工率 continued to decline in the chemical industry [2] - Power plant coal consumption was low, and inventory increased in the energy sector [2] - The asphalt开工率 decreased in the infrastructure sector [2] Downstream - Commodity housing sales in second - and third - tier cities declined seasonally in the real estate sector [3] - The number of domestic flights remained stable at a high level in the service sector [3] Macroeconomic Data Production Industry - From January to October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.5% year - on - year, contributing over half and becoming the main engine driving industrial growth [1] - In the energy and key raw materials fields, high - quality coal production capacity continued to be released, but due to the global AI boom, there was a shortage and significant price increase in chips, with some prices rising by up to 60% compared to September [1] Service Industry - In October 2025, banks settled foreign exchange worth 1519.4 billion yuan and sold foreign exchange worth 1394 billion yuan. From January to October 2025, banks cumulatively settled foreign exchange worth 14794.1 billion yuan and sold foreign exchange worth 14220.1 billion yuan [1] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 18649 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; the national general public budget expenditure was 22582.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - The national government - sponsored fund budget revenue was 3447.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; the national government - sponsored fund budget expenditure was 8089.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.4% [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price on 11/17 | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2174.3 yuan/ton | 0.80% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.4 yuan/kg | - 1.54% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8700.0 yuan/ton | - 0.37% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14799.2 yuan/ton | - 0.28% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.0 yuan/kg | - 0.72% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 86553.3 yuan/ton | 0.01% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22380.0 yuan/ton | - 0.79% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21920.0 yuan/ton | 1.94% | | | Spot price of nickel | 119033.3 yuan/ton | - 2.16% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 17343.8 yuan/ton | - 0.25% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3164.3 yuan/ton | 1.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 800.0 yuan/ton | 1.58% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3297.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.8 yuan/sq.m | - 1.43% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14900.0 yuan/ton | 1.42% | | | China Plastic City price index | 769.1 | - 0.54% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 60.1 dollars/barrel | 0.57% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 64.4 dollars/barrel | 1.19% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4202.0 yuan/ton | - 0.94% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 0.85% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4647.0 yuan/ton | 0.03% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6991.7 yuan/ton | 0.36% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 0.15% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1218.6 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index (national) | 137.7 | 0.95% | | | Building materials composite index | - | 1.11% | | | Concrete price index (national) | 90.8 | - 0.14% | [33]

油料日报 | 2025-11-18 豆市惜售挺价持续，花生供应有限油厂观望 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4178.00元/吨，较前日变化-37.00元/吨，幅度-0.88%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-98，较前日变化+37，幅度32.14%。 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2601合约7958.00元/吨，较前日变化+74.00元/吨，幅度+0.94%。现货方面，花生现货均价 8050.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元/吨，幅度+1.00%，现货基差PK01-758.00，环比变化-74.00，幅度+10.82%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面：全国花生市场通货米均价3.99元/斤，上涨0.03元/斤，其中，河南麦茬白沙通货米好货 3.6-3.8元/斤不等，豫、鲁、冀大花生通货米3.6-4.4元/斤，辽宁、吉林白沙通货米4.5-4.65元/斤、8筛精米4.9-5.05 元/斤，兴城花育23通货米4.2-4.25元/斤，好货报价持续偏强。油厂油料米合同采购报价7300-7450元/吨，以质论价， 整体到货量一般。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆行情整 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-18 港口继续下挫，内地成交亦转淡 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润600元/吨（-3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1960元/吨（-45），内蒙北线基差531元/吨（-19），内蒙南线1960元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2140元/吨（-15），鲁 南基差311元/吨（+11）；河南2020元/吨（-40），河南基差191元/吨（-14）；河北2090元/吨（+0），河北基差321元/ 吨（+26）。隆众内地工厂库存369250吨（-17160），西北工厂库存205500吨（-27000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单245400 吨（+24307），西北工厂待发订单116500吨（-8000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2012元/吨（-43），太仓基差-17元/吨（-17），CFR中国239美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-32元/ 吨（+5），常州甲醇2245元/吨；广东甲醇2015元/吨（-50），广东基差-14元/吨（-24）。隆众港口总库存1543600吨 （+56500），江苏港口库存836600吨（+451 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea trading atmosphere has improved. New orders were slow to follow up last week, but sales improved after price cuts. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is also winding down. Winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental protection factors. Melamine operating rate has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. Gas - fired plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The news of export quotas has improved urea export expectations at the end of the year, which is expected to support the spot market. The Indian IPL has issued a new urea import tender, and the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm need to be continuously monitored [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report shows data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][11] 2. Urea Production - The report presents data on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [20][25] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [29][30][33] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report provides data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [35][40][50] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows data on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [52][53] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [56][57][61] Market Data Details - **Price and Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,662 yuan/ton (+10). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,590 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,580 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 72 yuan/ton (-20), in Henan was - 62 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was - 82 yuan/ton (-20). Urea production profit was 60 yuan/ton (-10), and export profit was 1,048 yuan/ton (+116) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 17, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (unchanged). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 148.36 million tons (-9.45), and the port sample inventory was 8.20 million tons (+0.30) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 17, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32% (-0.72%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] Strategy - **Single - sided**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The strength - weakness pattern of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is changing marginally, with the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil continuing to rebound. The crude oil price is in a weak oscillation state, and the expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, which suppresses the unilateral price of fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil's previously strong fundamentals are marginally loosening, but there are still support factors below. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait is marginally tightening due to device maintenance changes, and the strong overseas gasoline and diesel also boost the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, the state where low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to form a trend, and the upside space of the high - low sulfur spread may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.92% at 2593 yuan/ton during the day session, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.43% at 3236 yuan/ton. The crude oil price is in a weak oscillation state, and the expectation of oversupply in the oil market is suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are marginally loosening, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is marginally tightening in some regions, with overseas gasoline and diesel boosting its valuation. But the medium - term trend of low - sulfur being stronger than high - sulfur is hard to form, and the high - low sulfur spread's upside space is limited [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term. For cross - variety, the previous long LU - FU spread positions can be appropriately stopped for profit. There are no strategies for cross - period, spot - futures, and options [2]. Charts - There are multiple charts including those showing Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, and the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3].

液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-18 市场支撑仍存，盘面延续震荡偏强 市场分析 1、\t11月17日地区价格：山东市场，4330-4460；东北市场，4010-4110；华北市场，4300-4450；华东市场，4250-4350； 沿江市场，4520-4810；西北市场，4200-4250；华南市场，4300-4450。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2、\t2025年12月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷561美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷553美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4374元/吨，涨15元/吨，丁烷4311元/吨，涨23元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷555美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷547美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4327元/吨，涨15元/吨，丁烷4264元/吨，涨22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着基本面边际收紧，外盘价格上涨，近期LPG现货与盘面呈现震荡偏强走势。现货方面，昨日华北、东北及沿 江区域延续上涨，其余区域维稳，当前市场需求尚 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-18 青岛港口库存继续小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15315元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨；NR主力合约12355元/吨，较前一日变动+90 元/吨；BR主力合约10455元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14650元/吨，较前 一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1850美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1745美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据第一商用车网初步统计，2025年10月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.3万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源）， 环比今年9月下降约12%，比上年同期的6.64万辆大幅增长约40%。今年1-10月，我国重卡市场累计销量超过了90 万辆，达到91.6万辆，同比增长约22%，预计在11月过后，累计销量就会超过100万辆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Report Core View - For the bean meal market, the current domestic supply is relatively abundant, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. Although the bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes. - For the corn market, new corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. The supply is slightly abundant, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Feed enterprises are cautious in building inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are increasing prices to purchase. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3043 yuan/ton yesterday, down 49 yuan/ton (-1.58%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2449 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.65%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area as of November 12 was 12.9% of the total expected area, up from 4.4% a week ago but 7.4% behind the same period last year and 3% behind the five - year average. The estimated planting area is 17.6 million hectares, a 4.3% year - on - year decrease. US private exporters reported selling 33.2 tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. The bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing but remains high. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future attention should be paid to soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2489 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - As of November 5, Argentine farmers sold 3072 tons of 2024/25 corn, 72 tons more than a week ago, and pre - sold 546 tons of 2025/26 corn, 46 tons more than a week ago. The Argentine corn spot price on November 5 was 270,000 pesos/ton, up from 267,500 pesos/ton a week ago [4] Market Analysis - New corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. Although the new - season Northeast corn has good yield and quality, port and production - area prices are rising. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to tight supply and rising prices. Feed enterprises are reluctant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are increasing prices to purchase. The supply is slightly abundant, and the supply - demand imbalance persists [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]