Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently has a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, under the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector may not experience a larger decline and are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Content Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On July 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 31.80 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead spot premiums and prices in different regions also changed. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16870 yuan/ton, closed at 16890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37318 lots, down 10660 lots from the previous day, and the holding volume was 66741 lots, up 2207 lots from the previous day. During the night session, the closing price was basically flat compared with the afternoon closing price [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply and Demand**: The lead price fluctuated weakly, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs. The transaction in the spot market remained relatively light. In different regions, the quotation premiums of lead suppliers varied, and some smelters had difficulties in high - premium transactions or stopped quoting due to inventory exhaustion [2] - **Inventory**: On July 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 30, the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6025 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Price Strategy**: The lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market has weakened, and the spot premium has generally declined steadily. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulation. Due to the current consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$3.92 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,680 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 10 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,640 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 50 yuan per ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,640 yuan per ton, closed at 22,670 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 141,408 lots, and the open interest was 116,245 lots. The highest price was 22,770 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,610 yuan per ton [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,050 tons, a change of - 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - Downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market has weakened, and traders have a mentality of supporting prices. The domestic ore new - month tender price has not been finalized, and the imported ore TC is still rising, with the highest offer reaching $85 per ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the social inventory is accumulating, and the zinc price is under pressure [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market expectations of glass and soda ash are fluctuating, with intensified intraday volatility. The long - term supply - demand of glass remains relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction. For soda ash, there is a risk of increased inventory pressure in the later stage [2]. - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy market has weakened, and prices are oscillating. The long - term supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains relatively loose, which suppresses enterprise profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.76%. Spot market transactions were cautious. Supply did not shrink, real - estate dragged down rigid demand, speculative demand increased, and inventory continued to decline but remained high [2]. - Soda ash: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.46%. Light and heavy alkali sales prices varied, and downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand. Supply was at a high level and in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, capacity may further increase. The photovoltaic industry has production - cut expectations, and soda ash consumption may weaken, increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillate weakly [3]. - Soda ash: Oscillate weakly [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: The main futures contract fell 0.42%. Raw material prices rose, some miners did not quote. Alloy enterprise profits improved, production increased slightly month - on - month. Iron - water production was relatively high, and demand was resilient. Due to sufficient capacity, production can quickly increase when profits improve [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The main futures contract rose 0.77%, closing at 6008 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased. Downstream procurement willingness was low. Supply increased month - on - month, warehouse receipts were relatively high, enterprise profits improved significantly, but long - term supply - demand remained loose, suppressing profits [4]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillate weakly [5]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillate weakly [5].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-31 成本端支撑增强，供需两弱格局延续 市场分析 1、7月30日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3650元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨36元/吨，涨幅 1.0%；持仓131496手，环比下降10290手，成交191539手，环比下降17315手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3870—4086元/吨；山东，3610—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3590元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 由于美国加码俄罗斯制裁的担忧增加，原油价格连续走强，带动BU盘面反弹，但整体未脱离区间运行的状态，如 果利多因素未兑现，中期可能面临来自油市基本面转弱的压力。现货方面，昨日华北、山东以及川渝市场沥青现 货价格出现上涨，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，一方 面炼厂供应增长仍受到限制，另一方面资金矛盾与降雨天气对终端需求释放形成阻碍，不过库存仍处于低位，还 未出现显著累库的信号，市场短期压力有限，抛开成本端的带动外，沥青自身基本面上行驱动有限。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Methanol overseas operating rate remains high, with significant future arrival pressure. The MTO maintenance of Xingxing is gradually being implemented, and it's still in an inventory accumulation cycle. However, coking coal still has an impact on coal - chemical industry. In the inland area, coal - based methanol has undergone concentrated maintenance but will gradually resume in early August. The traditional downstream is in a mixed situation, with formaldehyde in a seasonal off - season, while MTBE and acetic acid operations still show some resilience. The inland demand is strong, and the inventory of inland methanol plants has decreased again, presenting a pattern where the inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang and other regions compared to the main futures contract, as well as inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][7][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][25][30]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) are presented in the figures [6][33][34]. IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate regional price differences such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and South Shandong, and other regional combinations [6][38][45]. V. Traditional Downstream Profit - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][55]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when it is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The market for bean meal and corn is influenced by multiple factors including weather, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics. For bean meal, the supply is expected to be ample, and for corn, the supply - demand balance is also under the influence of various elements such as import policies and crop conditions [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3010 yuan/ton yesterday, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2735 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+2.82%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2690 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From July 1 - 25, Brazil's soybean exports reached 10.447 million tons, with a daily average of 550,000 tons, a 12.4% year - on - year increase. South American soybean exports in July are expected to increase by about 2 million tons year - on - year, with China as the main destination [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The bean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is good, and the soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro factors are obvious, with an upcoming Sino - US meeting in August and an expected improvement in trade relations. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose, with high soybean arrivals and increasing oil mill inventories [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for bean meal is cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2312 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.64%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market Information: As of July 27, 2025, 74% of the US national surface soil moisture was sufficient to excessive. In the main corn - producing states in the Midwest, the proportion of sufficient to excessive soil moisture in Iowa was 85%, in Illinois was 92%, and in Indiana was 77%. As of July 26, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season was 66.1%, and the expected total production was 131.97 million tons, a 14.3% increase from the previous year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - The corn futures price showed a narrow - range volatile trend yesterday. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors such as imported corn auctions, traders' shipments have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient corn and wheat inventories. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened [5] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Core Viewpoints - The 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, leading to a significant decline in the Comex premium. If the over 250,000 tons of Comex copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for now [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,930 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market has a tight supply pattern, with a significant strengthening of spot premiums. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 79,200 - 79,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 130 - 200 yuan/ton to the current - month contract. The average premium is 165 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. It is expected that the short - term premium will remain firm [2] Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished products like copper tubes and wires, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper and ores. This caused the COMEX copper price to plummet by up to 20% on the day, and the Comex - to - LME price difference has shrunk to about 5% [3] - **Mining End**: Glencore plans to cut about $1 billion in costs by the end of 2026 and has raised the long - term profit forecast for its commodity trading division from $2.2 - 3.2 billion to $2.3 - 3.5 billion. The trading division had a profit of $1.35 billion in the first half of the year [3] - **Smelting and Imports**: The Comex premium has weakened significantly due to the tariff exemption of refined copper, and it has recovered to about 5% of the LME price. If the over 250,000 tons of US copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited growth. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 225 tons to 136,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week [4] Data Tables - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The premium for SMM 1 copper (premium copper) is 165 - 180, for flat - copper is 150, for wet - process copper is 25, the Yangshan premium is 60, and LME (0 - 3) is - 52 [27] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 136,850 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 229,909 tons [27][28] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts are 19,973 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 15.20% [28] - **Arbitrage**: The spread between CU08 - CU06 (continuous third - near - month) is - 30, between CU07 - CU06 (main - near - month) is 0, CU07/AL07 is 3.83, CU07/ZN07 is 3.48, and the import profit is - 313 [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The overall sentiment has cooled, warehouse receipts are gradually increasing, spot prices are weakening, but the impact of disturbances at the mining end has not been completely eliminated. It is expected that the futures market will maintain a volatile trend [2]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2509 opened at 72,980 yuan/ton and closed at 70,600 yuan/ton, with a 0.43% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 792,909 lots, and the open interest was 272,753 lots, down from 300,620 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is 30 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 13,131 lots, a change of 855 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 72,000 - 73,900 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 70,300 - 71,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 780 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. - Downstream procurement willingness has slightly recovered compared to the previous period, but most enterprises still maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, expecting prices to bottom out further. Upstream lithium salt enterprises continue to hold prices firm, and some downstream enterprises purchase through the futures premium and discount pricing model. The basis in the market shows a gradually strengthening trend, and the game between buyers and sellers continues to intensify [1]. Strategy The overall sentiment has cooled, warehouse receipts are gradually increasing, spot prices are weakening, but the impact of disturbances at the mining end has not been completely eliminated. It is expected that the futures market will maintain a volatile trend [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [4]

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-07-31 弱化风险，关注内需政策发力 ——政治局会议系列五 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济形 势和经济工作。 核心观点 ■ 总体判断：经济良好，质量成效 经济判断：经济运行定调积极。下半年经济发展工作要求"巩固"和"拓展"。 经济工作：下半年宏观政策总体保持延续性。关注全球经济政策之间的协同性，以及 中美经贸谈判的相对积极的可能性。 宏观政策：政策从"用好用足"转向"落实落细"；货币政策不再提"适时降准降息"；加力 经济大省挑大梁。 ■ 重点工作：降低风险，以我为主 内需：依然是重点。（1）在消费领域"深入实施"提振消费专项行动，且从方向上这部分 消费是来源于"保障改善民生"；从结构上除了"扩大"商品消费，也要"培育"服务消费。 （2）在投资领域，相比较 4 月份扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设，7 月 份政治局会议仅强调了高质量推动"两 ...

3456789:;<=>2025-07-31 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 7 $%&'()*+,-. ——!"#$%&'(/ !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 7 月 31 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 7 月利率决议，宣布将利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%。 1）美联储将对经济形势的描述从"继续稳步扩张"调整为"上半年经济活动增长有所放 缓"，反映对经济降温的认可； 2）美联储删除了"经济前景的不确定性有所下降"的表述，强调不确定性仍处于较高水 平，语气趋于审慎。 &'"( n !"# 7 $%&'( 2025 年 7 月，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%至 4.50%不变，符合市场预期。政策声 明中承认上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，同时强调经济前景仍具高度不确定性，措辞 相比 6 月会议更趋谨慎。此次会议中，两位理事主张降息 25 个基点但 ...