股指期权日报 | 2025-07-30 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-07-29，上证50ETF期权成交量为78.87万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为79.15万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为117.91万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为6.37万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为128.87万张；上证50股指期权成交量为2.61万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为7.11万张；中证1000期权总成交量为18.15万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.70，环比变动为+0.05；持仓量PCR报1.00，环比变动为+0.01； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.68，环比变动为-0.02；持仓量PCR报1.06，环比变动为-0.01； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.57，环比变动为+0.01；持仓量PCR报1.09，环比变动为+0.05 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.51 ，环比变动为-0.08；持仓量PCR报0.84；环比变动为+0.08； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.48，环比变动为+0.02 ；持仓量P ...

Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, U.S. Treasury yields showed signs of decline. The market is waiting for the meeting's outcome. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates or if Fed Chair Powell is removed, it will be beneficial for the gold price. The silver price has reached a record high, but the photovoltaic sector's weakness may suppress it in the future [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions - **Futures**: On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 771.44 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the previous trading day. The Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 9,195 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the previous trading day [2] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: On July 29, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.42%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.48%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.2 Position and Volume Changes - **Last Trading Day's Volume**: The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 275,105 lots, down 16.66% from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts was 738,850 lots, down 52.79% from the previous trading day [4] - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 956.23 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15,173.92 tons [5] 3.3 Arbitrage Tracking - **Spot-Futures Spread**: On July 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -1.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -680.01 yuan/kg [6] - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 83.90, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Shanghai Gold Exchange**: On July 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold was 37,834 kg, up 9.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 461,672 kg, down 27.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,762 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,900 kg [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish with a sideways trend [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided [8] 2. Core Views - Steel: Market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are bullish with a sideways trend. Construction steel production and sales are stable, and inventory changes are minimal. Plate production has declined, and exports have significantly boosted plate consumption. A series of policies have been introduced to boost market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, prices have rebounded significantly due to macro - expectation boost. In the long term, the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. The supply in July shows a seasonal decline, but the supply support is stronger than in previous years. The demand and consumption of iron ore are resilient [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, and prices are moving sideways. For coking coal, supply is tight due to environmental inspections and heavy rain, but the supply recovery expectation is strong with the high - level recovery of Mongolian coal imports. For coke, after the price increase, the profit of coke enterprises is further compressed, and the supply is tightened by cost factors [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: In the short term, coal prices are moving sideways as downstream daily consumption is rising with the increase in temperature. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply remains loose [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3347 yuan/ton and 3503 yuan/ton respectively. Spot steel transactions are generally good, with speculative and futures - cash purchases being active. The national construction steel transaction volume is 12200 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Construction steel production and sales are stable, inventory changes are small, and the overall performance is slightly better than the seasonal average. As costs rise, construction steel prices increase. Plate production has declined, and exports have a significant pulling effect on plate consumption. A series of policies have boosted market sentiment [1]. - **Strategy**: Bullish with a sideways trend for single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices are moving sideways. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have risen slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm is average, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for刚需. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore is 1.064 million tons, a 5.42% decrease from the previous day; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot is 1.63 million tons, a 36.97% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In July, iron ore shipments show a seasonal decline, but the supply support is stronger than in previous years due to price increases. The current molten iron production remains at a high level, and there are no large - scale steel mill overhauls in the short term, so the consumption and demand for iron ore are resilient [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices are moving sideways. The decline of coke futures has narrowed compared to coking coal. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal has returned to a high level, and the supply recovery expectation is strong. After the coke price increase, traders' enthusiasm has increased [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, supply is tight due to environmental inspections and heavy rain, but the supply recovery needs to be tracked with the high - level recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The demand for molten iron remains high, and short - term speculative demand has increased. For coke, after the fourth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises is further compressed, and the supply is tightened by cost factors. The downstream steel fundamentals are better than the seasonal expectation, providing demand support [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, increased rainfall has affected production and sales, and coal prices are fluctuating. The price - holding sentiment has cooled down. At the port, downstream rigid - demand purchases at the end of the month have been completed. As the high - temperature range expands, daily consumption is increasing, and traders have positive expectations for the peak season, leading to higher market quotes. For imported coal, coastal power plants are replenishing stocks, and the quoted price has increased slightly [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: In July, as the temperature rises, downstream daily consumption is increasing, and demand is strengthening. In the short term, coal prices are moving sideways. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply remains loose [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy provided [8].

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures declined 7.19% at the close due to a high previous settlement price, with strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market. Supply remains unchanged, real - estate drags on demand, speculative demand increases, inventory continues to decline but stays high. Long - term supply - demand is still loose. [1] - Soda ash futures also declined, with near - month contracts falling more than far - month ones. The main contract dropped 3.58% at the close. Both light and heavy soda ash are sold at reduced prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. Supply is high and in summer maintenance, capacity release is relatively restricted, and it may further increase later. [1] Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese futures rose 184 yuan/ton to 6212 yuan/ton, driven by a sharp increase in finished - product prices. Production increased, iron - water production slightly decreased, and inventory decreased slightly but remained high. Manganese ore shipments from Australia basically recovered, and enterprise hedging willingness increased after the price increase. [3] - Silicon iron futures closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Demand remains resilient, factory inventory is at a medium - high level. Short - term market sentiment improved, and long - term capacity is relatively loose. [3] Group 4: Strategies for Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese: Expected to fluctuate [4] - Silicon iron: Expected to fluctuate [4] Group 5: Graphical Information - There are multiple graphical analyses including Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, futures contract closing prices, cost, profit, and basis charts for various products such as steel, iron ore, coke, soda ash, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene and styrene markets are in a consolidation phase, with limited room for further increase in BZ processing fees and relatively weaker fundamentals for styrene compared to pure benzene [3] - Suggests a wait - and - see approach for both pure benzene and styrene in the single - side trading, and provides strategies for basis, inter - period, and cross - variety trading [4] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Analyzes various data on pure benzene's basis and inter - period spread, such as pure benzene's main basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts [8][12] - Also looks at EB's basis and inter - period spread, including EB's main contract basis and the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts [15][16] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Covers production profit data of pure benzene and styrene, like styrene's non - integrated device production profit, and internal - external spreads such as the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea, and the import profit of pure benzene and styrene [20][23][32] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Presents inventory data of pure benzene and styrene, including pure benzene's East China port inventory and styrene's East China port, commercial, and factory inventories [38][40][43] - Also shows the operating rates of pure benzene and styrene [38][40] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Analyzes the operating rates and production profits of styrene's downstream products, including EPS, PS, and ABS [50][51][56] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Examines the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene's downstream products, such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid [62][66][83]

化工日报 | 2025-07-30 泰国原料价格回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15010元/吨，较前一日变动-55元/吨。NR主力合约12670元/吨，较前一日变动-140 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15000元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨， 较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1810美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1740美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11800元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年6月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量46.34万吨，环比增加 2.21%，同比增加33.95%，2025年1-6月累计进口数量312.57万吨，累计同比增加26.47%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年上半年，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为138.6万吨，同比降2%。其中， 标胶合计出口80.4万吨，同比降12 ...

Market Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%, with fiscal efforts and "rush exports" supporting the economic data, but policy urgency has decreased [2] - China's exports in June were strong, and a new round of "rush exports" supported demand under the easing of Sino-US tariffs; the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8%, mainly due to the suspension of subsidies in some regions, and subsequent policy subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption [2] - In terms of investment, infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly, and overall fixed investment weakened. There is still a risk of the weak real estate sales dragging down the entire real estate chain [2] - On July 29, the A-share market strengthened throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Most stocks fell, and the trading volume was nearly 1830 billion yuan. Among commodity futures, the main glass contract fell more than 7%, coking coal fell more than 6%, and lithium carbonate fell more than 5% [2] Anti-Involution Progress Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises. Policy expectations for "anti-involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles have increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, are about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [3] - Multiple departments have notified the assessment of old equipment in the petrochemical and chemical industries, focusing on corresponding chemical products [3] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - Trump signed the "Great America" tax and spending bill, marking a shift in US policy from "tight fiscal expectations + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage of "easy to loosen, difficult to tighten" [4] - The 2.0 stage of reciprocal tariffs has officially begun, with 4 batches of tariff letters sent to 25 countries so far. The UK is pushing for an agreement in the steel sector, and the US has reached agreements with Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the EU to reduce reciprocal tariffs [4] - The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US-EU trade agreement. Japan has lowered its export assessment for the first time in a year, citing the impact of US trade policies [4] - The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, and overseas demand hit a three-year low. The US Treasury expects to borrow more than 1 trillion US dollars in the third quarter [4] Commodity Sector Focus - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [5] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply shortage in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short-term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose [5] - Trump urged the UK to reduce taxes on the fossil fuel industry and increase North Sea oil production. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [5] - In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [5] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on industrial products on dips [6] Key News - The A-share market strengthened throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Most stocks fell, and nearly 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower. The trading volume was nearly 1830 billion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.86% [7] - Most US chip stocks rose before the market, with NVIDIA rising more than 1%. The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US-EU trade agreement [7] - Japan lowered its monthly export assessment for the first time in a year, partly due to the weakening of export demand to avoid US tariffs. Japan also adjusted its description of the overall economic situation, saying that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace [7] - The US Treasury auctioned 69 billion US dollars of two-year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 3.920% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 [7] - The US Treasury expects to borrow 1.01 trillion US dollars from July to September, higher than the previous forecast of 554 billion US dollars, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling [7] - Trump expressed disappointment with Russia's attitude towards the Ukraine war. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 2%, and among rare earth concept stocks, NioCorp Developments Ltd. fell 5.1%, Ucore UCORE RARE METALS fell 1.5%, Energy Fuels rose 0.6%, and MP Materials rose 0.2% [7] - The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia officially took effect at 24:00 on July 28 [7]

Industry Overview Upstream - Non-metallic: Glass prices continue to rebound [3] - Non-ferrous metals: Prices fluctuate [3] Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PX has declined [3] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in third-tier cities have seasonally declined [4] - Services: The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [4] Meso-level Event Overview Production Industry - Sino-US talks have postponed trade conflicts. From July 28th to 29th, the Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm, Sweden. According to the consensus, the suspension of the 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures will be extended for 90 days [1] - NVIDIA co-founder and CEO Huang Renxun believes that the wealth creation ability of artificial intelligence (AI) will exceed that of the Internet in the next 5 years [1] Service Industry - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for the global economic growth rate for this year and next year to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively. It has also significantly raised China's economic growth rate for this year to 4.8% [2] Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year | Quarterly | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting | 85.59 | 77.83 | 57.09 | 47.35 | 49.07 | 0.70 | | Mining | 33.06 | 46.36 | 37.35 | 27.48 | 31.05 | 2.00 | | Chemicals | 68.16 | 62.06 | 49.18 | 42.09 | 44.87 | 1.00 | | Steel | 37.13 | 55.10 | 47.48 | 37.99 | 41.94 | 6.50 | | Non-ferrous Metals | 39.26 | 56.54 | 49.42 | 40.23 | 42.58 | 5.30 | | Electronics | 52.58 | 70.94 | 54.62 | 43.31 | 42.35 | 0.00 | | Automobiles | 57.44 | 50.32 | 39.92 | 29.66 | 34.14 | 1.20 | | Household Appliances | 36.95 | 47.58 | 47.10 | 39.12 | 43.09 | 8.10 | | Food and Beverage | 36.18 | 45.25 | 37.12 | 28.44 | 30.25 | 0.50 | | Textile and Apparel | 44.99 | 53.41 | 52.65 | 39.28 | 42.30 | 1.20 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 47.59 | 167.09 | 146.32 | 132.29 | 133.75 | 7.70 | | Medicine and Biology | 52.07 | 71.30 | 53.47 | 43.92 | 46.74 | 0.90 | | Public Utilities | 25.15 | 33.57 | 27.41 | 20.28 | 23.82 | 2.80 | | Transportation | 26.46 | 36.88 | 30.25 | 23.79 | 26.92 | 4.50 | | Real Estate | 207.49 | 126.20 | 100.80 | 86.02 | 88.85 | 0.70 | | Commercial Trade | 39.88 | 50.24 | 42.17 | 32.90 | 36.79 | 1.50 | | Leisure Services | 73.88 | 119.48 | 118.95 | 105.46 | 105.42 | 85.50 | | Banks | 23.36 | 19.80 | 18.64 | 13.86 | 16.79 | 4.10 | | Non-bank Finance | 25.43 | 34.18 | 30.08 | 23.84 | 26.46 | 5.10 | | Comprehensive | 69.95 | 49.74 | 41.37 | 32.62 | 36.37 | 1.70 | | Building Materials | 33.33 | 46.19 | 37.31 | 24.78 | 28.14 | 0.70 | | Building Decoration | 37.97 | 54.48 | 51.32 | 42.89 | 46.49 | 9.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 53.97 | 79.25 | 72.51 | 66.34 | 69.49 | 29.00 | | Machinery and Equipment | 28.21 | 44.64 | 44.40 | 36.28 | 40.18 | 15.10 | | Computers | 66.65 | 61.96 | 46.60 | 33.72 | 36.84 | 1.00 | | Media | 240.02 | 45.79 | 37.92 | 29.70 | 34.29 | 1.30 | | Communications | 27.80 | 29.18 | 29.10 | 24.15 | 27.79 | 6.60 | [48] Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | 5-Day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Corn Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 2332.9 | -0.24% | - | | | Egg Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/29 | 6.8 | 3.03% | - | | | Palm Oil Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 9032.0 | 0.42% | - | | | Cotton Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 15557.5 | 0.05% | - | | | Average Wholesale Price of Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/29 | 20.5 | -1.16% | - | | Non-ferrous Metals | Copper Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 79043.3 | -0.91% | - | | | Zinc Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 22562.0 | -0.91% | - | | | Aluminum Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 20676.7 | -1.30% | - | | | Nickel Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 122683.3 | -1.39% | - | | | Lead Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 16850.0 | 0.26% | - | | | Rebar Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 3371.0 | 2.24% | - | | Ferrous Metals | Iron Ore Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 789.7 | -1.15% | - | | | Wire Rod Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 3555.0 | 1.64% | - | | | Glass Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 7/29 | 16.1 | 8.81% | - | | Non-metals | Natural Rubber Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 15066.7 | -0.28% | - | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 7/29 | 812.3 | -0.29% | - | | | WTI Crude Oil Spot Price | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/29 | 66.7 | 1.15% | - | | Energy | Brent Crude Oil Spot Price | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/29 | 70.0 | 1.20% | - | | | Liquefied Natural Gas Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 4152.0 | -1.14% | - | | | Coal Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 768.0 | 1.59% | - | | | PTA Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 4863.3 | 0.96% | - | | Chemicals | Polyethylene Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 7453.3 | 0.88% | - | | | Urea Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 1817.5 | -0.95% | - | | | Soda Ash Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 1315.0 | 5.20% | - | | | National Cement Price Index | Daily | - | 7/29 | 130.1 | -0.53% | - | | Real Estate | Building Materials Comprehensive Index | Daily | Points | 7/29 | 117.6 | 0.72% | - | | | National Concrete Price Index | Daily | Points | 7/29 | 94.1 | -0.82% | - | [49]

尿素日报 | 2025-07-30 上游开工维持，基本面弱势 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-29，尿素主力收盘1744元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：16 元/吨（-26）；河南基差：26元/吨（-26）；江苏基差：46元/吨（-16）；尿素生产利润230元/吨（-20），出口利润1046 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-29，企业产能利用率83.59%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨（-3.67），港口样本 库存量为54.30 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-29，复合肥产能利用率33.58%（+1.03%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.20%（+0.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（-0.12）。 前期市场主要受行业反内卷以及淘汰落后产能等宏观政策影响，预期端偏强，目前市场情绪明显回落。尿素上游 开工短期维持，产量高位运行，新增装置逐步投产，产量延续高位。农业需求逐渐进入尾声 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main factors affecting the market trends of PVC and caustic soda are "anti - involution" and the rectification of old devices. The market sentiment has improved, and the futures prices of both have risen. However, the fundamentals of both still face challenges, and the future trends need to pay attention to policy implementation [3] - For PVC, the supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and there is pressure to compress the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [3] - For caustic soda, the supply pressure is large, the demand has rigid support from the alumina industry but is weak in non - aluminum fields, and the inventory pressure is increasing [3] Group 3: Summary of PVC - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5,192 yuan/ton (+43). The East China basis was - 172 yuan/ton (- 83), and the South China basis was - 132 yuan/ton (- 43) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,020 yuan/ton (- 40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,060 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 62 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production was - 134 yuan/ton (+181), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production was - 506 yuan/ton (+89), and the PVC export profit was - 17.1 US dollars/ton (+11.1) [1] - Inventory and production: The in - factory PVC inventory was 35.7 tons (- 1.0), the social PVC inventory was 42.7 tons (+1.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 79.21% (+1.69%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 66.95% (- 1.36%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 75.81% (+0.84%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 79.5 tons (+9.9) [1] Market Analysis - The short - term PVC futures price is mainly driven by macro sentiment. The fundamentals have not improved significantly. The supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. There is pressure to compress the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high - Inter - variety: No strategy Group 4: Summary of Caustic Soda - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,642 yuan/ton (+49), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 48 yuan/ton (- 49) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,330 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 739.5 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 687.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,684.34 yuan/ton (- 50.00) [2] - Inventory and production: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.84 tons (+2.45), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.31 tons (- 0.09), and the caustic soda operating rate was 84.00% (+1.40%) [2] - Downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate was 85.45% (+1.84%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 84.97% (+0.42%) [2] Market Analysis - The price trend of caustic soda futures is volatile. The supply pressure is large, the demand has rigid support from the alumina industry but is weak in non - aluminum fields, and the inventory pressure is increasing [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads for the SH2509 - SH2601 spread - Inter - variety: No strategy