尿素日报 | 2025-07-31 下游需求偏弱，企业库存上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-30，尿素主力收盘1742元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：28 元/吨（+12）；河南基差：38元/吨（+12）；江苏基差：48元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润240元/吨（+10），出口利润1061 元/吨（+14）。 供应端：截至2025-07-30，企业产能利用率83.59%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.73 万吨（+5.85），港口样本 库存量为54.30 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-30，复合肥产能利用率33.58%（+1.03%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.20%（+0.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.12日（+0.18）。 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观政策刺激退去，尿素重回基本面交易。尿素开工高位运 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The EU and Indonesia reached a zero - tariff quota for palm oil trade, which is beneficial for palm oil exports. However, the market expects that the zero - tariff palm oil exports from Indonesia to the EU will mainly increase the demand for palm oil in the food industry, with limited impact, and the oils will continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Related Content Futures Prices - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8982.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +12 yuan, or +0.13%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8240.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +14.00 yuan, or +0.17%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9621.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +129.00 yuan, or +1.36% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9000.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +60.00 yuan, or +0.67%, and the spot basis was P09 + 18.00, a环比 change of +48.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8370.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +20.00 yuan/ton, or +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 130.00, a环比 change of +6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +130.00 yuan, or +1.36%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 89.00, a环比 change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market News - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), and they agreed on a tariff quota method for palm oil trade, which will set a quota for the quantity of EU - imported palm oil eligible for 0% tariff [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 579 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 569 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1182 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1140 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1060 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1040 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 460 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 455 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 469 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the premium of the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 229 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium of the US West Coast (September shipment) was 202 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 270 cents/bushel, up 7 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - As of the week of July 23, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 tons of 24/25 - year soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 2743.16 tons. The local oil mills purchased 74.57 tons, and the export industry purchased 4.2 tons. In addition, Argentine farmers sold 4.3 tons of 25/26 - year soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 48.95 tons. The local oil mills purchased 4.3 tons, and the export industry purchased 0 tons. The total soybean sales of all years in that week were 84.69 tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 6864.8 tons. As of July 23, the cumulative export sales registration quantity of 24/25 - year soybeans was 803.7 tons, and the cumulative export sales registration quantity of 25/26 - year soybeans was 0 tons [2]

流动性日报 | 2025-07-31 市场流动性概况 2025-07-30，股指板块成交6671.10亿元，较上一交易日变动+29.18%；持仓金额11647.71亿元，较上一交易日变动 +4.52%；成交持仓比为57.16%。 国债板块成交5176.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+15.60%；持仓金额8768.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.86%；成交 持仓比为60.80%。 基本金属板块成交5766.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.23%；持仓金额5177.63亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.78%； 成交持仓比为146.81%。 贵金属板块成交3132.20亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.25%；持仓金额4442.49亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%；成交 持仓比为87.12%。 能源化工板块成交5977.20亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.67%；持仓金额4304.00亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.86%； 成交持仓比为127.96%。 农产品板块成交3372.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.72%；持仓金额5772.45亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.36%；成交 持仓比为53.06%。 黑色建材板块成交766 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - Under the continuation of Sino - US tariff policies, the oilseed market is oscillating. The soybean supply is expected to remain loose, and the peanut market is generally weak with low downstream consumption and cautious middlemen [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the soy - one 2509 contract was 4153.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 147, down 9 (-32.14%) from the previous day. On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day, with the benchmark contract down 0.3%. Northeast soybean prices were stable, with remaining grain mostly consumed and limited trader inventories [1][2] - **Market Factors**: The Sino - US negotiation result maintained the previous "reciprocal tariff" rate, and the US soybean export expectation had no substantial change. The soybean crop in the Northeast was growing well, and the supply was expected to be loose [3] Peanut Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8106.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton (+0.05%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8580.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan/ton (-0.46%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 94.00, down 4.00 (-4.08%) month - on - month. The domestic peanut market was oscillating slightly downward, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.29 yuan/jin [4] - **Market Factors**: The peanut market was generally weak, with a sluggish downstream consumption environment, light trading, increased operating difficulties for middlemen, and strong risk - aversion sentiment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] Core Viewpoints - For propylene, after the Politburo meeting, there are strong expectations on the macro - policy front, but the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak. Supply - side pressure is increasing significantly, with device restarts and rising PDH capacity utilization. Many downstream devices have maintenance plans, and the cost support is weak due to the weak oil prices [3]. - For polyolefins, the fundamentals change little, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. There are both shutdown and startup plans for some devices, with rising capacity utilization expectations and increasing supply pressure. The cost support is weak, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures related to propylene basis structure include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract [10][13] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization [19][21][29] III. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Figures include the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37] IV. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Figures cover the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [43][53][60] V. Propylene Inventory - Figures show propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69] VI. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [70][74] VII. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve LL production profit (crude - oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [79][87][93] VIII. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between HD injection molding and LL East China, HD blow molding and LL East China, HD film and LL East China, LD East China and LL, PP low - melt copolymer and drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding and drawn wire in East China [97][100][101] IX. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Figures include LL import profit, differences between LL US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, LL Europe FD and China's CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), differences between PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB and China's CFR, and LL export profit [106][117][122] X. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Figures cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, winding film, PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and their corresponding production gross profits [128][129][134] XI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures show the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [139][142][144]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Market analysis shows that in the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,450 yuan/ton (a change of -17 yuan/ton or -0.38% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton (a change of +7 yuan/ton or +0.15% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton). With market news calming down, EG fluctuated widely, and the basis rose under the influence of typhoons. In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$39/ton (a month-on-month increase of $4/ton), and that of coal-based syngas EG was 98 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton). Regarding inventory, according to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 475,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 19,000 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals, so actual arrivals should be monitored [1]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the supply side, domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants in non-coal sectors have plans or actions to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and in an ideal situation, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, greatly alleviating the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in late July, and there is pressure for the fundamentals to weaken in August under high supply [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,450 yuan/ton (a change of -17 yuan/ton or -0.38% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton (a change of +7 yuan/ton or +0.15% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$39/ton (a month-on-month increase of $4/ton), and that of coal-based syngas EG was 98 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, greatly alleviating the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 475,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 19,000 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals, so actual arrivals should be monitored [1].

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-31 财政货币发力，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6% 降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存 整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存 款利率" 联动调控路径；7月LPR报价持稳，1年期LPR报3%，上次为3%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上次为3.5%。 2） 通胀：6月CPI同比上升0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-07-30，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了3090亿元7天的逆回购操作。（4）货 币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.317%、1.501%、1.620% 和1.550%，回购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-07-30，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.34元、105.63元、108.30元、118.36元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为0.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month [3] Core Viewpoints - PX/PTA prices follow the rise of oil prices. Geopolitical situations have disrupted oil prices, and the market is concerned about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The Middle - East situation also supports the rebound of oil prices. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's own fundamentals have little change, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a 0.4% increase compared to the previous period). After the terminal weaving replenished raw materials, the inventory pressure of filament factories decreased significantly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The short - fiber factory has different pressure levels, and the bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - The strategy includes a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, shorting PTA processing fees at high levels for cross - variety trading, and no cross - period trading strategy [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Price and Basis - The report presents figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [4][5] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [4][5] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [4][5] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [4][5] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [4][5] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4][5] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the spread between original and regenerated fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [4][5] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent strengthening of crude oil prices has driven up energy commodities including FU and LU The market fears that Trump may intensify sanctions on Russia, leading to a decline in market supply However, if the sanction expectations are not fulfilled, there is still resistance above the oil price [1] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market has been weak recently, with its market structure continuously adjusting and crack spreads significantly falling from high levels The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant and the inventory level is high Although the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten and the Asia-Pacific market may get short-term support, the market may strengthen again if the crack spreads are fully adjusted and refinery demand rebounds significantly [1] - The overall pressure on the low-sulfur fuel oil market is currently limited, but in the medium term, the market outlook is not optimistic due to abundant surplus production capacity and the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry [1] Strategy Summary - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Consider closing out short positions on the crack spread of FU (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: No specific strategy mentioned [2] - For cross-variety: Close out short positions on the crack spread of FU (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - For cross-period: Gradually close out reverse arbitrage positions on FU [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy [2] - For options: No strategy [2] Chart Information - The report provides various charts related to fuel oil, including spot prices, swap contracts, futures prices, spreads, and trading volumes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the domestic market [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-31 资金情绪回落，板块整体偏弱 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13755元/吨，较前一日变动-170元/吨，幅度-1.22%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15343元/吨，较前一日变动-88元/吨，现货基差CF09+1588，较前一日变动+82；3128B棉全国均价15470元/吨， 较前一日变动-110元/吨，现货基差CF09+1715，较前一日变动+60。 近期市场资讯，近两日郑棉大幅回落跌回7月初水平，棉纱市场也开始出现下调报价情况，似乎"跟跌"更为迅速。 部分厂家有下调报价200-300元/吨的情况，目前市场气流纺低支纱走货尚可，其他品种走量一般。由于纺纱亏损情 况有所加剧，近日内地调减产能的纺企有所增多，部分纺企放一个月左右的高温假，市场没有明显启动迹象，中 美谈判进展也对外销订单预期形成利空。当前各地区纱厂开机率稳中略降，新疆大型纱厂在九成左右，河南大型 企业平均在六-七成左右，江浙、山东、安徽沿江地区的大型纱厂平均开机在六到七成。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续弱势。国际方面，近期国际棉市消息平淡，无明确方向指引。目前来看今年 ...