Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, although the sown area of new - season US soybeans has decreased, high yields are expected to lead to a bumper harvest. In China, oil mills are accumulating inventory, the breeding industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply is relatively loose. The soybean meal futures price rose last week due to macro - sentiment, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and new - season US soybean growth [2] - For corn, in China, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, the demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is mainly based on on - demand replenishment, and the impact of imported corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3095 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.80%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From July 1 - 18, Brazil's soybean exports reached 743.7 million tons, with a daily average of 53.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [1] Market Analysis - The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and high yields are expected to offset the reduction in sown area. In China, the supply is loose, the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the spot price is stable. The futures price rose due to macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and new - season US soybean growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2675 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.26%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: In the first three weeks of July, Brazil exported 90 million tons of corn, with a daily average of 6.4 million tons, a 58% decrease compared to the daily average in July last year. The US corn growth good - to - excellent rate was 74%, the highest since 2016 and unchanged from the previous week [3] Market Analysis - In China, after concentrated grain sales, the trade inventory has decreased. Feed and deep - processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, and the impact of imported corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-24 情绪消退后氧化铝价格快速回落 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20850元/吨，较上一交易日下跌90元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至20元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20630元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下 跌60元/吨至-180元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20830元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌20元/吨至25元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-23日沪铝主力合约开于20915元/吨，收于20790元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌70元/ 吨，跌幅-0.34%，最高价达20975元/吨，最低价达到20730元/吨。全天交易日成交144609手，较上一交易日减 少8809手，全天交易日持仓327482手，较上一交易日减少3415手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存49.8万吨。截止2025-07-23，LME铝库存444800 吨，较前一交易日增加6350吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-23 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3235元/吨，山东价格录得3 ...

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported by inventory tightening before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space is restricted. In the medium - long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] - The global sugar market is expected to increase production in the new year. Zhengzhou sugar has a strong spot price due to fast sales, but there is still pressure from imported sugar, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,411 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, 3.8% slower than the same period last year. As of July 21, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 13,400 tons, a year - on - year decline of 58%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.0817 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support Zhengzhou cotton prices, but the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upward space of the far - month 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - According to the OECD - FAO, the global sugar price is expected to decline slightly, but there are multiple uncertainties. India is expected to remain the third - largest sugar exporter, and the proportion of ethanol production in sugar production is expected to increase from 9% to 22% by 2034 [4] Market Analysis - The international sugar market is trading the expectation of global production increase, and the rebound space of raw sugar is limited. The spot price of domestic sugar is strong, but the high import profit and increasing import volume put pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,414 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Arauco coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of Russian coniferous pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was strong, but the high - price transactions were not smooth. The prices of some grades of coniferous, broad - leaf, and other pulps increased, but the downstream procurement volume did not increase significantly [6] Market Analysis - The pulp price rebounded in the short term due to the anti - involution policy, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation [8]

卸港偏慢，港口库存回落 甲醇观点 甲醇日报 | 2025-07-24 市场分析 近期化工板块的主题仍是投产超20年以上的装置的整改预期，中国在产的甲醇老旧装置产能占比在5%，关注后续 进展。焦煤表现强势，煤价回升或带动甲醇成本支撑。本周港口库存下滑幅度超预期，卸港速率偏慢。但海外开 工维持高位，后续到港压力仍大，而部分MTO装置的检修计划仍未兑现，关注7月下旬的降负兑现进度。内地方面， 煤头甲醇开工短期低位，但下旬月底逐步恢复；传统下游方面，MTBE韧性超预期，醋酸开工亦坚挺，内地需求韧 性仍足，甲醇内地工厂库存再度下降，仍是内地强于港口的格局。 市场要闻与重要数据 策略 单边：逢低做多套保 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤450元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润663元/吨（+48）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2038元/吨（+48），内蒙北线基差227元/吨（+94），内蒙南线2050元/吨（+60）；山东临沂2335元/吨（+0）， 鲁南基差124元/吨（+46）；河南2200元/吨（+30），河南基差-11元/吨（+76）；河北2225元/吨（+35），河北基差74 元/吨（+81）。隆众内地工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC fundamentals are difficult to drive the market upward continuously. After the weakening of macro - sentiment, the PVC rebound is limited. The supply side has high upstream开工 and new capacity, while the demand side has weak domestic demand and neutral exports, and the social inventory is accumulating [3]. - The market sentiment of caustic soda has been significantly boosted, and the caustic soda futures have been running strongly recently. The supply side has new production expectations, and the demand side has rigid support from the alumina industry, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The inventory pressure is expected to increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5151 yuan/ton (- 109), the East China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+ 99), and the South China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (+ 29) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 5050 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 5020 yuan/ton (- 80) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 535 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (- 25), the calcium carbide profit is 87 yuan/ton (- 25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 315 yuan/ton (+ 130), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 595 yuan/ton (+ 26), and the PVC export profit is - 16.4 US dollars/ton (- 2.6) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The PVC factory inventory is 36.8 tons (- 1.4), the PVC social inventory is 41.1 tons (+ 1.8), the PVC calcium carbide method开工 rate is 77.52% (+ 0.59%), the PVC ethylene method开工 rate is 68.31% (- 1.92%), and the PVC开工 rate is 74.97% (- 0.10%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+ 0.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2644 yuan/ton (- 14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 50 yuan/ton (+ 14) [1]. - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 459.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 592.53 yuan/ton (+ 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1719.84 yuan/ton (+ 271.52) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.39 tons (+ 0.96), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (+ 0.04), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 82.60% (+ 2.20%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 83.61% (+ 0.33%), the dyeing and printing开工 rate in East China is 58.89% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 84.55% (+ 6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Policy may lead to expectations of eliminating old - fashioned PVC production capacity, but the fundamentals are difficult to drive the market upward. The supply side has high开工 and new capacity, the demand side has weak domestic demand and neutral exports, and the social inventory is accumulating [3]. Caustic Soda - The market sentiment has been boosted by the possible elimination of old - fashioned caustic soda production capacity. The supply side has new production expectations, the demand side has rigid support from the alumina industry, but the non - aluminum demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral. The market rebound may be limited due to the cooling of macro - sentiment and insufficient fundamental drivers [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously go long for hedging. The cost support of caustic soda is strengthened, and the caustic soda market is expected to continue to be strong [5].

服务行业：海南自贸封关时间已定。 1）国家发展改革委副主任王昌林7月23日在国新办发布会上表示，关于海南 自贸港封关的具体时间，经党中央批准，定于2025年12月18日正式启动。王昌林表示，在12月18日这一天启动封 关运作，具有重要象征意义，也是向世界展示我国坚定不移扩大高水平开放的决心和信心。接下来还有几个月时 间，我们将抓紧做好后续准备工作，帮助经营主体充分了解封关政策、开展相关业务测试。 宏观日报 | 2025-07-24 关注AI下游人形机器人消费进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注人形机器人领域发展。 1）7月23日，农业农村部召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，部党组书 记、部长韩俊主持会议并讲话。会议强调，进一步强化市场引导和政策支持，健全生猪产能综合调控机制，促进 生猪市场稳定运行，加快推进生猪产业转型升级，推动生猪产业稳定健康发展.。2）华尔街投行摩根士丹利发布报 告预测，人形机器人今年下半年将在中国"被广泛采用"。大摩还预测称，未来中国在人形机器人领域将愈发占据 优势，与美国等其他国家的差距将逐步拉开。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）黑色：黑色商品集体价格上行。2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading liquidity data of various sectors in the market on July 23, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On July 23, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 6218.40 billion yuan, a +12.11% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 11309.50 billion yuan, a +1.73% change; the trading - holding ratio was 55.00%. There are also figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][16] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On July 23, 2025, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 5405.11 billion yuan, a +40.23% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 9025.71 billion yuan, a - 0.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.31%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][18] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On July 23, 2025, the trading volume of the base metal plate was 8162.85 billion yuan, a +28.40% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5209.01 billion yuan, a - 1.67% change; the trading - holding ratio was 213.20%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 4848.25 billion yuan, a +20.51% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4914.08 billion yuan, a +2.68% change; the trading - holding ratio was 119.04%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][34] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On July 23, 2025, the trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 6906.89 billion yuan, a - 5.27% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4299.16 billion yuan, a - 0.77% change; the trading - holding ratio was 149.58%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][37] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On July 23, 2025, the trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 3918.32 billion yuan, a +15.83% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5936.18 billion yuan, a +0.71% change; the trading - holding ratio was 55.26%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][46] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On July 23, 2025, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 6320.02 billion yuan, a +11.91% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3866.03 billion yuan, a - 1.31% change; the trading - holding ratio was 156.70%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [2][62]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-24 不锈钢盘面回落，现货成交转弱 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-23日沪镍主力合约2508开于123890元/吨，收于123370元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.06%，当日成交量 为133758手，持仓量为95734手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘跳空高开快速冲高回落后高位盘整，日盘振荡回落，午后小幅回升，收长引阴线。成交量 较上个交易日有所减少，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美 国与日本达成贸易协议：对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资。宣布与到访的菲律宾总统马科斯达成贸 易协议。特朗普称，菲律宾将对美国开放市场并实施零关税，而美国将对菲律宾进口商品征收19%的关税。美国总 统特朗普当地时间周二（22日）表示，他"可能在不远的将来"访问中国。郑栅洁：推动整治内卷式竞争、拓展产 业链供应链合作。经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方 举行经贸会谈。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约500元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调， 盘面镍价冲高回落 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or -0.25% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton or +0.16% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month-on-month). The news of the upcoming work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries boosted the market, but the impact on EG was limited as the proportion of backward production capacity over 20 years old was only 6.6%, and most were already shut down or operating at low loads. The cost of coal increased due to the production inspection notice [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (down 2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to rise moderately early next week [2]. - For the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, on the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - made glycol load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal production, and limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery was less than expected due to the poor restart of Saudi Arabian plants. On the demand side, terminal inventory was high and the willingness to stock up was low during the off - season, with weak demand expectations. However, the actual decline in demand may be limited, and the supply - demand structure in July was still favorable, but the pressure of foreign vessel arrivals would increase moderately in late July [2]. - In terms of strategy, the short - term performance is strong under the concentrated release of macro - policies, and the medium - term view is neutral. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton, the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton, and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data or analysis of international spreads is provided in the summary part of the report. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - There is no detailed analysis of downstream sales, production, and operating rates in the summary part of the report. Inventory Data - MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (CCF data, down 2.0 tons month - on - month) and 49.4 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival last week was 5.2 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15.7 tons [2].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-24 铁矿：宏观预期提振，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格震荡运行。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于812.0元/吨，跌幅0.61%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏冷清，钢厂采购 多以刚需为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交86.4万吨，环比下跌29.93%；远期现货：远期现货累计成交123.0万吨 （10笔），环比上涨33.70%(其中矿山成交量为106万吨)。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，目前市场情绪积极向好，建材目前正处于消费淡季，库存微增，产量小幅下滑，去库表 现略好于季节性预期。板材表现出较强消费韧性，维持供需两旺格局。近期破除"内卷式"竞争等政策利好频出， 刺激市场整体向好。后续关注政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 市场情绪放缓，钢价震荡偏强 钢材：市场情绪放缓，钢价震荡偏强 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3274元/吨，热卷主力合约收于 ...