石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-09 现货小幅反弹，盘面震荡筑底 市场分析 1、12月8日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价2955元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.34%；持仓195139手，环比下跌14471手，成交171875手，环比上涨66929手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2860—3470元/吨；华南，29550—3150元/吨； 华东，3100—3300元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格 大体企稳。部分地区终端项目赶工，叠加山东个别厂家沥青合同暂停销售，带动昨日国内沥青均价小幅反弹。当 前沥青基本面维持供需两弱格局，未来随着降温终端需求还有进一步下降的空间，对于具备配额的炼厂利润相对 可观，局部供应竞争较为激烈，压制现货价格。考虑到冬储需求还没有大量释放的迹象，市场情绪谨慎，反弹动 力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行空间或有限，但底部反弹需要更多的刺激因素，等待冬储需求释放。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部夯实 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权： ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2778元/吨，较前日变动-43元/吨，幅度-1.52%；菜粕2605合约2342元/吨，较前 日变动-35元/吨，幅度-1.47%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+292， 较前日变动+43；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+242，较前日变动+43；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3010元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M05+232，较前日变动+53。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2550元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+208，较前日变动+35。 近期市场资讯，布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，阿根廷大豆播种进展依然落后。截至12月3日，阿根廷2025/26年度 大豆进度达到44.7%，高于一周前的36%，但是同比落后9%，比五年均值落后1.1%。咨询公司Patria Agronegocios 周六在一份声明中称，巴西大豆种植户已经基本完成2025/26年度作物的播种，大约91%的农田已经完成。 市场分析 当前供需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port inventory pressure of pure benzene remains high, and attention should be paid to the subsequent shipments from South Korea. The short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene in China is large, leading to an accelerated accumulation of port inventory. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market still needs to be repaired. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the downstream operating rates are generally low during the off - season. For styrene, it maintains a low operating rate, and the port inventory continues to decline. The downstream demand shows a mixed performance, with EPS operating rate slightly rebounding during the off - season but still facing inventory pressure, ABS operating rate decreasing due to continuous inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year as the inventory pressure is alleviated [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 190 yuan/ton (- 27), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 190 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 131 yuan/ton (- 38 yuan/ton) [1] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The production profit of non - integrated styrene units is - 15 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The CFR China processing fee for pure benzene is 115 dollars/ton (- 1 dollar/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 110 dollars/ton (- 1 dollar/ton), with the US - South Korea price difference being 179.9 dollars/ton (+ 0.0 dollars/ton) [1] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 tons (+ 3.60 tons), and the styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The pure benzene downstream operating rates show a mixed performance: the caprolactam operating rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), the phenol operating rate is 82.00% (+ 1.00%), the aniline operating rate is 77.23% (+ 0.04%), and the adipic acid operating rate is 60.00% (+ 0.60%). The styrene operating rate is 68.9% (+ 1.6%) [1] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Among the styrene downstream hard plastics: the EPS production profit is 18 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), the PS production profit is - 182 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), and the ABS production profit is - 797 yuan/ton (- 71 yuan/ton). The EPS operating rate is 56.36% (+ 1.61%), the PS operating rate is 59.00% (+ 1.40%), and the ABS operating rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - The production profit of caprolactam is - 470 yuan/ton (- 50), the production profit of phenol - acetone is - 977 yuan/ton (- 150), the production profit of aniline is 848 yuan/ton (+ 95), and the production profit of adipic acid is - 1233 yuan/ton (- 45) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Go long on the inter - period spread of EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 需求有所回升，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11385元/吨，较前交易日变动+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.30元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差 LH03-85，较前交易日变动-90；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.40元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH03+15，较前交易日变动+20；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.46元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+75，较前交易日变动+230。 据农业农村部监测，12月8日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.26，比上周五上升0.48个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为131.98，比上周五上升0.57个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.66元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%； 牛肉66.03元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉62.71元/公斤，比上周五下降0.8%；鸡蛋7.32元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.6%；白条鸡17.26元/公斤，比上周五下降1.3%。 市 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-09 EG主港延续累库，本周到港计划仍多 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3701元/吨（较前一交易日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.59%），EG华东市场现货价 3690元/吨（较前一交易日变动-50元/吨，幅度-1.34%），EG华东现货基差-9元/吨（环比+6元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-85美元/吨（环比-12美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1108 元/吨（环比-52元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为71.9万吨（环比+1.1万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand in the polyolefin market continues to be weak, and the market is oscillating weakly. For PE, the supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in the start - up rate and the approaching of the demand off - season, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, with inventory accumulating and the demand side lacking follow - up [1][2][3]. - The recommended strategy is to remain on the sidelines for single - side trading, with the market expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread on the L01 - 05 contract when the price is high. For inter - variety trading, narrow the L - P price spread when it is high [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6643元/吨（-31），PP主力合约收盘价为6275元/吨（-12）；LL华北现货为6620元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为6750元/吨（-60），PP华东现货为6310元/吨（-40）；LL华北基差为 - 23元/吨（-9），LL华东基差为107元/吨（-29），PP华东基差为35元/吨（-28） [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）；PE油制生产利润为202.2元/吨（-107.2），PP油制生产利润为 - 497.8元/吨（-107.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 568.5元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data summary provided for this section in the given content. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为59.3元/吨（-70.0），PP进口利润为 - 273.0元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为 - 22.4美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%（+0.0%） [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, the social inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the absolute inventory level was relatively high compared to the same period. The LLDPE social inventory also increased further during the week. For PP, the inventory continued to accumulate [2][3]

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-09 到港压力仍大，关注MTO动态 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 跨品种：无 风险 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润590元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1995元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差506元/吨（-25），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2230元/吨（+5），鲁 南基差341元/吨（-7）；河南2110元/吨（-35），河南基差221元/吨（-47）；河北2175元/吨（+0），河北基差346元/吨 （-12）。隆众内地工厂库存361320吨（-12392），西北工厂库存205000吨（-4000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单239715 吨（+9005），西北工厂待发订单128500吨（+15000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2080元/吨（-5），太仓基差-9元/吨（-17），CFR中国241美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差-12元/吨 （+7），常州甲醇2325元/吨；广东甲醇2075元/吨（+0），广东基差-14元/吨（-12）。隆众港口总库存1349430吨（-14070）， 江苏港口库存703300吨（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the Comex premium persists, and the inventory levels in Shanghai and London remain relatively low. Coupled with the upcoming Fed rate cut, copper prices may continue to fluctuate in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between RMB 91,500/ton and RMB 92,000/ton, while arbitrage is put on hold and short put options are suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 92,520/ton and closed at RMB 92,970/ton, up 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 92,820/ton and closed at RMB 92,400/ton, down 0.61% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the current 2512 contract was between RMB 20/ton - RMB 240/ton, with an average premium of RMB 130/ton, down RMB 40 from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was between RMB 92,040 - RMB 92,560/ton. The intraday procurement sentiment declined significantly, and the sales sentiment slightly increased, causing the spot premium of Shanghai copper to fall. It is expected that spot transactions will still be at a premium, but as copper prices continue to rise, the number of downstream orders decreases, and the premium is expected to face pressure [2]. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Fed's December interest rate meeting is approaching. The market generally believes that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again. The market will closely watch Powell's press - conference Q&A session and the last "dot - plot" of the year. Regarding the rate - cut amplitude and the number of future rate cuts, Hassett, a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, believes that data should be closely monitored, and actions should be taken prudently [3]. Economic Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). Due to the government shutdown, the collection of October data is delayed. According to its website, the Bureau plans to announce the October data together in the November 2025 PPI press release on January 14, 2026 [3]. Mining End - On December 5, Askari Metals announced a successful fundraising of $1.15 million and appointed a new director to accelerate its mineral exploration projects in Ethiopia and Namibia. The funds will be mainly used for the exploration of two core projects: the Nejo copper - gold project in Ethiopia and the Uis lithium - tin - tantalum - rubidium project in Namibia. On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [4]. Smelting and Imports - On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. LME copper inventory increased last week, reaching a six - month high on December 4 and then slightly declining, with the latest inventory at 162,550 tons. SHFE copper inventory continued to decline last week, falling 9.22% to 88,905 tons, a three - month low. International copper inventory decreased by 573 tons to 11,504 tons. New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high at 436,853 tons [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the State Grid's December tender volume decreased by 20% month - on - month. After copper prices exceeded RMB 91,000/ton, cable enterprises only fulfilled previous long - term orders. The new tender price transmission coefficient was only 0.6, and some enterprises replaced copper cables with aluminum cables, with the estimated substitution ratio rising to 8%. In the home appliance sector, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners was reduced by 6%, and copper tube procurement was based on "production according to sales". The copper material procurement volume of Midea and Gree in December decreased by 12% month - on - month. The demand for copper strips in refrigerators and microwaves increased slightly due to good export orders. In the automotive sector, the copper consumption of new energy vehicles continued to increase, with a per - vehicle copper consumption of 83 kg and an 11 - month production increase of 35% year - on - year, offsetting the decline of traditional vehicles. However, high - voltage wiring harness enterprises, due to copper accounting for more than 60% of costs, have jointly applied to vehicle manufacturers for a price - linkage mechanism, otherwise they will reduce production to ensure profits. Photovoltaic and data centers have become new highlights. Morgan Stanley predicts that the copper demand of data centers in 2026 will be 475,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30%, but high copper prices have forced some projects to postpone tenders, slowing the short - term demand pace [5][6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 164,550 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. On December 8, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, an increase of 1400 tons compared with the previous week [6].

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-09 供需弱势，烧碱持续下探 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1198元/吨（-63）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）593.8元/吨（-62.5）；山东 氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）-513.21元/吨（-92.50）；西北氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）399.00元/吨（+0.00）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4390元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4410元/吨（-40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（+0）；电石利润-25元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-1019元/吨（-139）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-472元/吨（-8）；PVC出口利润-4.4美元/吨（+6.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.6万吨（+0.3）；PVC社会库存52.9万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.09%（-0.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.92%（+0.80%）；PVC开工率79.01%（+0.16%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.8万吨（+2.9）。 烧碱： 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2 ...

市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:10月CPI同比上升0.2%。 国债期货日报 | 2025-12-09 政治局会议明基调，国债期货涨跌分化 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅 ...