Hua Tai Qi Huo

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市场情绪放缓,钢价震荡偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down, and steel prices are fluctuating with a slight upward trend. The glass and soda ash markets have stable spot sales, but their futures opened high and closed low. The double - silicon market has firm spot prices and is operating steadily [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is basically stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, with significant de - stocking pressure. In the long run, supply and demand are still relatively loose [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures also opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream transactions are stable, with a wait - and - see attitude. Supply has both复产 and maintenance, with output remaining stable month - on - month. In the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to stay low. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, demand is expected to weaken further, and there is great annual inventory pressure [1]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market trading atmosphere is active, and the overall price is firm. The 6517 grade in the northern market is priced at 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton. Production is stable, and demand has resilience due to the recovery of hot metal production. However, high - level inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices. The Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered, and prices fluctuate with the sector [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures fluctuated with a slight upward trend yesterday. The market sentiment is good, and the rising futures drive up the spot price. The 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is priced at 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. Production has increased month - on - month, while demand has slightly decreased. Inventories are at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the rising coal price boosts the valuation. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 4: Strategies Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight downward trend [2]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4].
盘面振幅放大,需关注交易风险
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:51
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-24 盘面振幅放大,需关注交易风险 工业硅: 市场分析 2025-07-23,工业硅期货价格大幅上涨后回落,主力合约2509开于9810元/吨,最后收于9525元/吨,较前一日结算 变化(55)元/吨,变化(0.58)%。截止收盘,2509主力合约持仓334776手,2025-07-23仓单总数为50106手,较 前一日变化53手。 供应端:工业硅现货价格上涨。据SMM数据,昨日华东通氧553#硅在9900-10100(300)元/吨;421#硅在10100-10400 (300)元/吨,新疆通氧553价格9400-9600(400)元/吨,99硅价格在9400-9500(400)元/吨,现货价格继续上调。 消费端:据SMM统计,有机硅DMC报价11600-12500(0)元/吨。据SMM了解,今日国内山东淄博地区前期事故 单体企业80万吨单体产能全部进入停车,此次停车时长不定,国内供应减量加剧。 策略 焦煤价格继续上涨,反内卷政策等仍有一定扰动,导致期货情绪仍偏强,短期盘面或仍偏强运行。后续需关注盘 面上涨后西南开工变化及西北复产情况,若反弹较多,可择机卖出套保。 ...
资金情绪有所降温,碳酸锂盘面回落
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:51
Report Summary Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,500 yuan/ton and closed at 69,380 yuan/ton, a -4.07% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,334,159 lots, and the open interest was 362,054 lots, down from 411,638 lots the previous day. The basis was -2,470 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 10,754 lots, a change of 665 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 - 72,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,300 - 69,300 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 770 US dollars/ton, a change of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - Downstream material factories have low price acceptance, leading to a widening price gap between upstream and downstream. The market transactions are mainly between upstream lithium salt factories and traders, and downstream material enterprises generally adopt a wait - and - see attitude except for a small amount of rigid procurement, resulting in light trading volume [1]. Strategy - The sharp decline in the futures market was mainly affected by the cooling of overall commodity and capital sentiment and news of a mining end loosening. The outcome of the lithium mine suspension is still unknown. In the short - term, news and warehouse receipt games have a significant impact, so risk management is recommended. If the mining end disturbances weaken in the future, the upstream can sell hedging in the far - month contracts [2]. - For unilateral trading, sell hedging at high prices when appropriate [2]. - There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].
大豆花生市场偏淡,新旧衔接推进
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:51
油料日报 | 2025-07-24 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 大豆花生市场偏淡,新旧衔接推进 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘豆一2507合约4217.00元/吨,较前日变化-15.00元/吨,幅度-0.35%。现货方面,食用豆现货基 差A09+83,较前日变化+15,幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总:东北市场今日大豆价格暂稳。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/ 斤,较昨日平;黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江佳 木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.18元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤,较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货冲高回落,当前大豆季节性淡季已至,上下游货物流通不畅,市场购销活动较为清淡,国产大豆缺 乏推动其变动的因素。中储粮在周一的拍卖之后,将于本周五再次开展双向拍卖 ...
天然橡胶社会库存环比下降
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:51
化工日报 | 2025-07-24 天然橡胶社会库存环比下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面,昨日收盘RU主力合约15005元/吨,较前一日变动-55元/吨。NR主力合约12775元/吨,较前一日变动-80 元/吨。现货方面,云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨,较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨, 较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1810美元/吨,较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1740美元/吨,较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11750元/吨,较前一日变动-150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年6月中国天然橡胶(含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶)进口量46.34万吨,环比增加 2.21%,同比增加33.95%,2025年1-6月累计进口数量312.57万吨,累计同比增加26.47%。 2025年上半年,科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计75.17万吨,较2024年同期的67.26万吨增加11.8%。6月出口量同比增加 36.9%,环比增加13. ...
农产品日报:早熟果价高于同期,红枣销区少量到货-20250724
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:51
农产品日报 | 2025-07-24 早熟果价高于同期,红枣销区少量到货 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘苹果2510合约7956元/吨,较前一日变动+27元/吨,幅度+0.34%。现货方面,山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.95元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP10-56,较前一日变动-27;陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP10+1644,较前一日变动-27。 近期市场资讯,苹果市场行情整体偏稳运行,库存旧季货源交易氛围一般,西部产区货源剩余不多,部分冷库对 水烂点货源存急售心理,现货商发自存货源为主,早熟果纸袋秦阳陆续上市交易。山东产区客商拿货仍显谨慎, 多挑拣拿货。剩余货源结构多以中大果居多,走货不快。销区市场需求不佳,近期南方销区台风多雨天气,走货 不快。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤,70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤,以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果 农三级2.0-2.5元/斤,果农80#以上统货2.8-3.5元/斤,80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤,80#一二级片红3.5- ...
宏观提振减弱,烯烃小幅回落
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:50
丙烯聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-24 宏观提振减弱,烯烃小幅回落 市场要闻与数据 丙烯方面,丙烯主力合约收盘价6578元/吨(-35),丙烯华东现货价6475元/吨(-25),丙烯华北现货价6340元/吨(-35), 丙烯华东基差-103元/吨(+10),丙烯华北基差-253元/吨(-15)。丙烯开工率73%(+2%),中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR204美元/吨(+7),丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR142美元/吨(+29),进口利润-106元/吨(+67),厂内库存30230吨 (+210)。 聚烯烃方面,L主力合约收盘价7288元/吨(-80),PP主力合约收盘价7096元/吨(-72),LL华北现货7240元/吨(+40), LL华东现货7190元/吨(+0),PP华东现货7100元/吨(+0),LL华北基差-48元/吨(+120),LL华东基差-98元/吨(+80), PP华东基差4元/吨(+72)。PE开工率78.2%(+0.4%),PP开工率77.3%(+0.7%)。PE油制生产利润134.0元/吨(+49.3), PP油制生产利润-196.0元/吨(+49.3),PDH制PP生产利润64 ...
农产品日报:宏观情绪利好,生猪期价偏强运行-20250724
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:50
农产品日报 | 2025-07-24 宏观情绪利好,生猪期价偏强运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14590元/吨,较前交易日变动+210.00元/吨,幅度+1.46%。现货方面,河南地 区外三元生猪价格14.32元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤,现货基差 LH09-270,较前交易日变动-280;江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.42元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.13元/公斤,现货基差LH09-170,较前交易日变动-340;四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.50元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤,现货基差LH09-1090,较前交易日变动-330。 据农业农村部监测,7月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.74,比昨天下降0.03个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.80,比昨天下降0.02个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.57元/公斤,比昨天下降0.8%;牛肉64.00 元/公斤,比昨天下降0.1%;羊肉59.16元/公斤,比昨天下降0.6%;鸡蛋7.43元/公斤,比昨天上升1.6%;白条鸡17.47 元/公斤,比昨天上升1.2% ...
上游延续去库,库存降幅缩窄
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:50
尿素日报 | 2025-07-24 上游延续去库,库存降幅缩窄 市场分析 价格与基差:2025-07-23,尿素主力收盘1817元/吨(+5);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1850 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1830元/吨(-10);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1840元/吨(+0);小块无烟煤750元/吨(+0),山东基差:23 元/吨(+5);河南基差:33元/吨(+5);江苏基差:23元/吨(-5);尿素生产利润300元/吨(-10),出口利润1082 元/吨(-1)。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端:截至2025-07-23,企业产能利用率85.08%(0.08%)。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨(-3.67),港口样本 库存量为54.10 万吨(+5.20)。 需求端:截至2025-07-23,复合肥产能利用率32.55%(+2.72%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.24%(+1.68%);尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日(-0.12)。 尿素企业库存延续下降,但降幅收窄。近期国内尿素需求偏弱,尿素工厂整体接单及出货放缓。政策与宏观面对 尿素价格提振作用 ...
铁元素与碳元素年度走势再评估
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 08:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - Overseas consumption remains at a high level, with India continuing to show significant growth. From January to May 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 35,151 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in May. Overseas crude steel consumption totaled 40,416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to June, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 5,266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [4]. - Domestic steel exports have increased significantly, while domestic demand remains stable, leading to strong demand for raw materials. From January to June 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 55,152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Crude steel consumption totaled 48,481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In June, both production and consumption of domestic crude steel showed positive trends. In the first half of the year, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 6,362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. In June, the total of crude steel production and exports reached 9,621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. During the same period, domestic pig iron production totaled 44,865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and iron ore consumption increased by 2,198 million tons [4]. - The supply of iron elements is tight, and inventory is at a medium level. From January to June, domestic steel consumption remained resilient. In June, domestic crude steel consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net exports of crude steel equivalent increased by 22.1%. The total of domestic demand and exports in June decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel mills adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy, and steel inventory continued to decline. Currently, the total iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and steel and scrap steel inventories are at low levels. In the short term, the iron ore market remains in a tight - balance state [5][6]. - The supply of carbon elements is relatively tight due to decreased production and imports. Since the beginning of this year, the supply of carbon elements has been significantly affected by domestic production and imports, and the market is in a tight - balance state. The inventory of carbon elements has been continuously decreasing. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking trend of carbon elements was stronger than in previous years. From mid - June, with the continuous decline in coking coal supply and strong domestic steel consumption and exports, the inventory of coking coal and carbon elements began to decline, and the coking coal price continued to rebound [7]. Strategy - The annual outlook suggests that the rate of iron ore inventory accumulation will narrow, and the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will remain in a tight - balance state [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 1 - 5 Global Steel Industry Supply and Demand Analysis Overseas Consumption Remains High, India Continues to Grow Significantly - From January to May 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 35,151 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in May. Overseas crude steel consumption totaled 40,416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to June, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 5,266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [16]. - From January to May 2025, overseas total iron production totaled 22,055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and iron ore consumption decreased by 178 million tons. In May, overseas total iron production increased by 1.8% year-on-year. From January to May, overseas scrap steel consumption totaled 16,611 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [21]. Domestic Demand Remains Stable, Exports Increase Significantly, and Raw Material Demand Remains Strong - From January to June 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 55,152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Crude steel consumption totaled 48,481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In June, both production and consumption of domestic crude steel showed positive trends. In the first half of the year, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 6,362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. In June, the total of crude steel production and exports reached 9,621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. During the same period, domestic pig iron production totaled 44,865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and iron ore consumption increased by 2,198 million tons [25]. Anti - Dumping Investigations Cause Disturbances, but Exports Remain Resilient - In 2024, China's steel exports exceeded 100 million tons, reaching a new high since 2017. In the first half of 2025, China's steel exports totaled 5,815 million tons, an increase of 475 million tons compared to the same period last year. Among the top 10 export destinations, Vietnam, South Korea, and India saw significant declines in imports from China due to tariff increases. Overall, exports remain strong, and most steel products continue to show growth in exports [32]. Iron Element Supply is Tight, Inventory Remains at a Medium Level Domestic Iron Ore Production Declines Month - on - Month, Supply Decreases Year - on - Year in the First Half - From January to June, the cumulative output of domestic iron ore concentrate powder was 12,862 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, continuing the low - supply situation since the second half of last year. It is expected that some production will be replenished in the second half of the year [42]. Iron Ore Supply from Australia and Brazil Increases, Supply from Non - Mainstream Sources Continues to Shrink - From January to June, China's total iron ore imports were 59,255 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. Among them, imports from Australia were 36,417 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; imports from Brazil were 11,948 million tons, a decrease of 4.1%. Imports from South Africa and India were 2,050 million tons and 1,337 million tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 3.4% and - 46.5%. Imports from other non - Australian, Brazilian, Indian, and South African countries were 7,503 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. Overall, in June, the decline in iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil narrowed, and the supply from non - mainstream sources showed a contraction trend [44]. Domestic Demand Remains Resilient, Exports are Strong, and Iron Element Inventory is at a Medium - Low Level - From January to June, domestic steel consumption remained resilient. In June, domestic crude steel consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net exports of crude steel equivalent increased by 22.1%. The total of domestic demand and exports in June decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel mills adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy, and steel inventory continued to decline. Currently, the total iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and steel and scrap steel inventories are at low levels. In the short term, the iron ore market remains in a tight - balance state [56][57]. Production and Imports Decrease, Carbon Element Supply is Relatively Tight Falling Prices and Safety Production Measures Lead to a Decrease in Domestic Coking Coal Production - Since 2023, coal production has been affected by frequent coal mine accidents. In order to eliminate safety hazards and strengthen safety production, relevant government agencies have issued a series of coal production safety policies. At the beginning of this year, the impact of coal mine accidents on supply gradually subsided, and domestic coking coal supply quickly recovered, putting pressure on coking coal prices. In June, affected by the continuous decline in coking coal prices, the pressure on coal mine inventory increased, and coking coal production continued to decline. As of July 17, the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal from sample mines was lower than the same period last year [58][60]. Continuous Price Decline Leads to a Decrease in Coking Coal Imports - In the past few years, imports of coking coal from Mongolia and Russia have continued to increase. In 2024, China's net imports of coking coal reached a record high of 12,114 million tons. From January to June this year, China's net imports of coking coal were 5,282 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.36%. Among them, imports from Mongolia decreased by 479 million tons, imports from Russia decreased by 2 million tons, and imports from Australia decreased by 23 million tons. Imports from the United States increased by 206 million tons in the first half of the year, but the import volume was zero in May and June [62][63]. Carbon Element Supply and Demand are in a Tight - Balance State, Inventory Structure is Continuously Optimized - Since the beginning of this year, the supply of carbon elements has been significantly affected by domestic production and imports, and the market is in a tight - balance state. The inventory of carbon elements has been continuously decreasing. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking trend of carbon elements was stronger than in previous years. From mid - June, with the continuous decline in coking coal supply and strong domestic steel consumption and exports, the inventory of coking coal and carbon elements began to decline, and the coking coal price continued to rebound. Currently, the inventory structure of carbon elements shows a high degree of balance [72]. Re - evaluation of Iron and Carbon Elements Iron Element Supply is Expected to Recover, Iron Ore Inventory will be at a Medium - High Level - In April, overseas consumption was lower than expected, and overseas crude steel production and sales data were revised downwards. It is estimated that overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 1.4% year-on-year in 2025, while crude steel production is expected to decrease by 0.1%. Overseas demand for crude steel imports remains strong, and it is expected to increase by more than 1,350 million tons compared to 2025. Overseas scrap steel consumption is expected to decrease by 679 million tons, and overseas total iron production is expected to increase by 612 million tons, equivalent to an increase of 979 million tons in iron ore consumption. Based on the assumption that domestic steel consumption will increase by 0.4% year-on-year and considering the increase in iron ore imports in the second half of this year, relevant supply assumptions are made [77]. Production Increases, Imports Decrease, Supply and Demand of Coking Coal and Coke are in a Tight - Balance State - Based on the assumption of an increase in crude steel and pig iron production, it is estimated that the consumption of coke (for ironmaking) will increase by 652 million tons in 2025. Considering the poor coking profit in the past, coking plants generally adopt a production - based - on - sales strategy. The annual coke production is expected to increase by 439 million tons. The coke market will remain in a tight - balance state, and inventory will remain at a low level. Given the current decline in domestic coking coal production and a significant decrease in imports, the coking coal market will also be in a tight - balance state, and coking coal inventory is expected to reach a low level [3][7].