原油日报 | 2025-07-25 阿塞拜疆原油出现有机氯污染，乌拉尔装船因检查延迟 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨78美分，收于每桶66.03美元，涨幅为1.2%；9月交货的伦敦布 伦特原油期货价格上涨67美分，收于每桶69.18美元，涨幅为0.98%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.56%，报507元/桶。 2、俄罗斯预计将在几天内对燃油生产商实施汽油出口禁令。 (来源：Bloomberg） 3、俄罗斯联邦安全局已开始向外国油轮发放许可证，允许其进入黑海港口，这为哈萨克斯坦石油出口的恢复铺平 道路。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗对与以色列的停火前景并不乐观，伊朗已做好应对任何情况的准备。（来源： Bloomberg） 5、伊朗副外长表示，要与美国恢复核谈判，需要建立互信、承认德黑兰的核权利以及保证不攻击伊朗。（来源： Bloomberg） 6、新加坡企业发展局（ESG）：截至7月23日当周，新加坡燃料油库存在上涨31.4万桶达到2369.9万桶的两周高点。 （来源：Bloomberg） 投资逻辑 近期，原油供应方面的短期扰动不断，俄罗斯乌拉尔原 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][7] 2. Core Views - For the apple industry, the current inventory is low, and the expected new - season production is similar to last year. There are no prominent fundamental contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [2][3] - For the红枣 industry, it is currently in the low - consumption period with high inventory. The Xinjiang main - producing area is in the critical fruit - setting period. The market is sensitive to new - season growth information, and weather changes will determine the final yield and quality of jujubes [6][7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,969 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.95 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - Futures prices rose yesterday. The remaining inventory in the warehouse is low, and storage merchants are eager to sell. The number of new - season fruit bags is slightly lower than the same period. The main - producing area's shipment speed is slow, and the inventory is at a five - year low. The enthusiasm of merchants to pick up goods has slightly improved, but the actual trading volume is limited. The sales in the distribution area are affected by summer fruits [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Due to the low inventory in the producing area and the expected new - season production being similar to last year, the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Pay attention to the listing of new - season early - maturing apples [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2601 contract yesterday was 10,515 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton or 0.76% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.70 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Market Analysis - Futures prices fell yesterday. The inventory is slowly decreasing, and the arrival of goods in the Hebei distribution area has increased. The new - season jujube trees in Xinjiang are in the fruit - setting period. The market has been concerned about the growth of new - season jujubes. The price has been fluctuating recently, and weather changes will determine the final yield and quality [5][6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Currently in the low - consumption period with high inventory, but the Xinjiang main - producing area is in the critical fruit - setting period. The market is sensitive to new - season growth information. Pay attention to physiological fruit drop and high - temperature weather changes [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Strong due to the concentrated release of macro - policies; Medium - term: Neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4485 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton, +1.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4529 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton, +0.71% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 58 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The news of the upcoming stable growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals boosted the market, but the proportion of obsolete EG production capacity over 20 years old is only 6.6%, and most are in a shutdown or low - load operation state, with a relatively limited impact. The cost of coal has increased due to the production inspection notice [1] - Ethylene - made EG production profit was - 44 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and coal - made syngas - made EG production profit was 97 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 53.3 tons (-2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 47.5 tons (-1.9 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 15.7 tons, with concentrated arrivals, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately rebound at the beginning of next week [2] - In terms of supply, the domestic synthetic gas - made load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal aspects and limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery is not as expected. In terms of demand, terminal inventory is high in the off - season, and the demand expectation is weak, but the actual decline space may be limited. The supply - demand structure in July is still good, but the pressure of foreign vessel arrivals will increase moderately in late July [2] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4485 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton, +1.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4529 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton, +0.71% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 58 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - Ethylene - made EG production profit was - 44 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and coal - made syngas - made EG production profit was 97 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The domestic synthetic gas - made load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal aspects and limited room for further improvement [2] 3.3 International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - In the off - season, terminal inventory is high, and the demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of filament maintenance, and the actual decline space may be limited [2] 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 53.3 tons (-2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 47.5 tons (-1.9 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 15.7 tons, with concentrated arrivals, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately rebound at the beginning of next week [2]

化工日报 | 2025-07-25 市场资讯 2025年6月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量46.34万吨，环比增加 2.21%，同比增加33.95%，2025年1-6月累计进口数量312.57万吨，累计同比增加26.47%。 2025年上半年，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计75.17万吨，较2024年同期的67.26万吨增加11.8%。6月出口量同比增加 36.9%，环比增加13.3%。 乘联分会发布的最新数据显示，今年6月，全国乘用车市场零售208.4万辆，同比增长18.1%，环比增长7.6%。今年 上半年，乘用车市场累计零售1,090.1万辆，同比增长10.8%。 市分析 轮胎厂开工率环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15245元/吨，较前一日变动+240元/吨。NR主力合约13120元/吨，较前一日变动+345 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15200元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14900元/吨， 较前一日变动+300元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1850美元/吨，较前一日变动+40美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical sector's prices have gradually rebounded from the bottom since the end of June, with the market trading on the expectation of supply - side tightening. The report focuses on "old - fashioned devices" in the chemical industry, which are defined as production devices that have reached their design service life or have been in actual operation for more than 20 years. By analyzing the old - fashioned device capacities of various chemical products and their characteristics, the report comprehensively assesses the potential supply and demand impacts and the probability of subsequent transformation for each chemical product [4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Anti - involution and Definition of Old - fashioned Capacities - In July 2025, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting proposed to "legally and regulatoryly manage the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, guide enterprises to improve product quality, and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward capacities", marking the possible start of a new round of supply - side reform in China. Industries such as photovoltaic, cement, steel, and automotive have responded [14]. - In June 2023, multiple departments jointly issued a notice to conduct a comprehensive assessment of old - fashioned devices in the petrochemical and chemical industries, requiring the submission of basic information by July 15 and assessment results and renovation suggestions by August 30 [15]. - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, were about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward capacities [16]. 2. Overview of the Proportion of Old - fashioned Device Capacities of Various Chemical Products - In the oil - chemical industry, old - fashioned capacities of propylene, pure benzene, butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, PE, and PP account for a large proportion, mainly owned by the "Two Barrels of Oil", and the implementation progress may be slow. In the coal - chemical and chlor - alkali industries, caustic soda has the largest proportion, and urea also has a relatively large proportion. In the polyester industry chain, the old - fashioned capacity of staple fiber accounts for a relatively large proportion [19]. 3. Analysis of Old - fashioned Devices of Propylene and Its Downstream - The in - production old - fashioned capacity of propylene is 13.56 million tons per year, accounting for 17.9% of the total capacity, mainly concentrated in the "Two Barrels of Oil". The old - fashioned capacities of downstream products such as PP granules, PP powder, PO, etc., when converted into propylene demand, total 7.54 million tons per year. If the transformation and elimination of old - fashioned capacities of propylene and its downstream are realized, the supply reduction of propylene will be greater, which is bullish. However, the transformation or elimination rate may be slow, and the actual impact remains to be tracked [24][29][31]. 4. Analysis of Old - fashioned Devices of Styrene and Its Downstream - The in - production old - fashioned capacity of styrene is about 1.41 million tons per year, accounting for 6.4% of the total capacity, mainly concentrated in the "Two Barrels of Oil". The old - fashioned capacities of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS, when converted into styrene demand, total 4.13 million tons per year. Even with a conservative calculation of non - "Two Barrels of Oil" old - fashioned capacities and a 60% operating rate, the potential demand reduction of styrene is still greater than the in - production old - fashioned capacity. The downstream rectification probability is greater, which is bearish. It is advisable to short the EB - BZ spread at high prices [35][39][40]. 5. Analysis of Old - fashioned Devices of Pure Benzene and Its Downstream - The old - fashioned capacity of pure benzene is 4.07 million tons per year, accounting for 16% of the total capacity, mainly owned by the "Two Barrels of Oil". The old - fashioned capacities of downstream products such as styrene, phenol, and adipic acid, when converted into pure benzene demand, total 1.85 million tons per year. If the transformation and elimination of old - fashioned capacities of pure benzene and its downstream are realized, the supply reduction of pure benzene will be greater, which is bullish. However, in the short term, the impacts on both the supply and demand sides are limited [45][46][47]. 6. Analysis of Old - fashioned Devices of Methanol and Its Downstream - The in - production old - fashioned capacity of methanol is about 4.81 million tons per year, accounting for 4.5% of the total capacity, mainly state - owned, and 2.9% of the capacities are below 500,000 tons per year, increasing the probability of rectification. The old - fashioned capacities of downstream MTBE, acetic acid, and formaldehyde, when converted into methanol demand, total 2.39 million tons per year. If the transformation and elimination of old - fashioned capacities of methanol and its downstream are realized, the supply reduction of methanol will be greater, which is bullish, especially for the distant 01 contract [52][58][59]. 7. Analysis of Old - fashioned Devices in the Chlor - alkali Industry Chain 7.1 Calcium Carbide - The in - production old - fashioned capacity of calcium carbide is about 4.71 million tons per year, accounting for 11% of the total capacity. Most of the large - capacity devices have undergone technological transformation, and the expected elimination capacity of small - capacity devices accounts for only 3%, with a limited impact [60]. 7.2 PVC - The old - fashioned capacity of PVC is 3.335 million tons, accounting for 12% of the total capacity. The probability of elimination of ethylene - based PVC devices is relatively low, and attention should be paid to the 9% calcium - carbide - based devices. State - owned, private, and foreign - invested enterprises all have a certain proportion, and there is a certain possibility of transformation. However, the impact on the PVC capacity structure is limited, and the supply - side pressure is still large [65][66][79]. 7.3 Caustic Soda - The in - production old - fashioned capacity of caustic soda is about 14.24 million tons, accounting for 28.8% of the total capacity. Nationally, 11% of the capacities are below 200,000 tons, increasing the probability of rectification. The impact of the supply - side rectification on the caustic soda capacity structure remains to be observed [73].

Group 1: Summary of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of old chemical production facilities in various sectors, including polyester, rubber, urea, and polyolefin industries. It aims to evaluate the potential impact of the renovation or elimination of these old facilities on supply and demand [5][6]. - The report divides the old facilities as those with a production operation time of over 20 years. It analyzes the capacity, proportion, and characteristics of these facilities in different chemical products [5][6]. - The report provides specific conclusions for each chemical product, including the potential impact on supply and demand, the probability of renovation or elimination, and investment strategies [6][7][8]. Group 2: Polyester Industry Chain PX and PTA - PX: The total capacity of PX facilities put into operation 20 years ago (inclusive) is 306 million tons, accounting for 7.0%. The in - production capacity is 223 million tons, accounting for 5.1%, all belonging to the two major state - owned oil companies. The short - term possibility of these facilities shutting down is low [14]. - PTA: Facilities put into operation before 2005 have been shut down for years and eliminated. The impact of the policy on PTA supply can be ignored [14]. MEG - The total capacity of MEG facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is nearly 142 million tons, with the in - production capacity of 96 million tons, accounting for 3.3%. These facilities are mainly ethylene - based and mostly from the two major state - owned oil companies. The policy's impact on ethylene glycol supply is limited [17][18]. PR - The total capacity of PR facilities put into operation 20 years ago is 96 million tons, accounting for 4.4%, and the in - production capacity is 80 million tons, accounting for 3.7%. The expected impact on overall production is about 2% [21]. PF - The total capacity of PF facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is about 346 million tons, accounting for 33.4%. Small - scale factories may be eliminated first, while large - scale enterprises may continue to operate through transformation [23][24]. Group 3: Rubber Industry Chain Butadiene - The total capacity of butadiene facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 130.5 million tons, accounting for 19%. The elimination of these facilities is difficult. The supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in 2025, but the policy may change the situation [30][32]. Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - The total capacity of cis - polybutadiene rubber facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 34 million tons, accounting for 17%. The policy may lead to a decrease in supply [33][34]. Tires - The proportion of old tire facilities has decreased significantly. The recent policies have little impact on the tire industry, but rising raw material prices may pose risks to non - exporting tire manufacturers [35][36]. Group 4: Urea Industry - The capacity of urea facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 1517 million tons/year, accounting for 20%. The policy is expected to have a significant impact on the urea industry, and the supply - demand pattern may shift from surplus to tight balance [38]. - The main production processes of old urea facilities are natural gas and coal - based fixed - bed gasification. The fixed - bed process is at a disadvantage in terms of cost and environmental protection [42]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry PE - The capacity of PE facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 547 million tons/year, accounting for 14%. These facilities have problems such as small scale, outdated technology, and high environmental and energy consumption pressure. The policy may help the industry move towards a balanced supply - demand pattern [48][50]. PP - The capacity of PP facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 476 million tons/year, accounting for 10%. The policy is expected to relieve the over - capacity pressure in the polyolefin industry [55][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, terminal customers have been actively replenishing their stocks, leading to a significant increase in the sales volume of filament yarns. However, the macro - sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes [1] - The cost side shows that crude oil maintains a strong current situation but a weak outlook. The PX market lacks significant positive factors, and the PXN spread is expected to fluctuate after compression. The PTA fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance due to low processing fees. The polyester demand is in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining rapidly, and filament yarn inventories are accumulating [2][3] - In terms of trading strategies, a neutral stance is recommended for PX, PTA, PF, and PR, with a slight upward bias in the short - term under the influence of macro - sentiment. Consider shorting the PTA processing fee when prices are high [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It shows figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Operations - Figures cover the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventories and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament yarn sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [50][52][63] Detailed PF Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled price spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and processing fee [74][83][87] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, export processing fee, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [92][94][101]

股指期权日报 | 2025-07-24 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-07-23，上证50ETF期权成交量为205.56万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为203.80万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为181.17万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为8.59万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为180.25万张；上证50股指期权成交量为5.52万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为13.33万张；中证1000期权总成交量为22.52万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.37，环比变动为-0.10；持仓量PCR报1.32，环比变动为+0.11； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.34，环比变动为-0.04；持仓量PCR报1.26，环比变动为+0.00； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.48，环比变动为-0.03；持仓量PCR报1.36，环比变动为-0.04 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.21 ，环比变动为-0.11；持仓量PCR报1.12；环比变动为+0.05； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.39，环比变动为-0.03 ；持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot freight rate has likely appeared, with the offline price of ONE adjusted down to $3108/FEU [1][4]. - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely emerged. The 08 contract's delivery settlement price may fall around 2200 points [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with expected high volatility [5]. - The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries [8]. - For trading strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 80,317 lots, and the daily trading volume was 74,208 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1477.30, 1324.00, 1468.80, 2239.70, 1537.00, and 1701.80 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 31 was 1907/3214, and in week 32 it was 1780/2980. In the second half of July, the offline price of the PA alliance was between $3100 - 3300/FEU, and that of the OA alliance was between $3200 - 3500/FEU [2][4]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to July 20, 2025, 151 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, totaling 705,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, totaling 159,880 TEU [8]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of July was 272,000 TEU. In August, the average weekly capacity was 310,500 TEU, and in September it was 276,400 TEU. Maersk will add two additional ships in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The situation of container ship passage through major canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is presented in the figures, which can reflect the impact on the supply chain [66][68][74]. - The congestion ratio and congested capacity of global container ships are also shown in the figures, which are important factors affecting the supply chain [57]. V. Demand and European Economy - Figures such as the EU 27's industrial production index, import value from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year can reflect the demand and economic situation in Europe [39][40][41]. - China's export volume to the EU and total export volume can also provide insights into the demand side [43][44].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-24 关税叠加美联储主席是否更换事宜加大市场不确定性 策略摘要 近日，欧盟称准备在未达成协议的情况下对美国价值1000亿欧元的商品征收30%关税。美财长贝森特表示，欧盟的 报复准备措施是一种谈判策略。而总统特朗普则称，将对大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税。如果能说服主要 国家对美国开放市场，将始终愿意放弃关税条款。此外，美国众议院议长约翰逊表示，他对美联储主席鲍威尔"感 到失望"，此前美国总统特朗普因对高利率感到不满而持续抨击这位美联储主席。而当被问及他是否会支持特朗普 解雇鲍威尔时，约翰逊表示，他不清楚是否有法律权力可以罢免美联储主席。地缘方面，据伊朗伊斯兰共和国广 播电视台称，伊朗称其在阿曼湾拦截了一艘美国驱逐舰。伊朗称美国的船只已后退并撤离。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-23，沪金主力合约开于788.50元/克，收于792.90元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.03%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于790.98元/克，收于785.26元/克，较昨日午后收盘下降0.78%。 2025-07-23，沪银主力合 ...