流动性日报 | 2025-10-17 市场流动性概况 2025-10-16，股指板块成交8670.20亿元，较上一交易日变动-23.11%；持仓金额13380.77亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.62%；成交持仓比为64.63%。 国债板块成交3261.54亿元，较上一交易日变动-34.87%；持仓金额8136.41亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.56%；成交 持仓比为39.76%。 基本金属板块成交3551.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-27.70%；持仓金额5261.66亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.75%； 成交持仓比为70.04%。 贵金属板块成交11730.20亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.18%；持仓金额5321.50亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.45%；成 交持仓比为314.17%。 能源化工板块成交3609.68亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.46%；持仓金额4409.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.15%； 成交持仓比为69.58%。 农产品板块成交2546.71亿元，较上一交易日变动-23.70%；持仓金额5605.20亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.45%；成 交持仓比为41.85%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The price of the main EG futures contract closed at 4,089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.79% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,126 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.10%. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $1/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -526 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons, up 5.0 tons. The inventory continued to accumulate [1]. - On the supply side, domestic EG production is at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Under the new device production, there is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has bottomed out and rebounded [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG futures contract closed at 4,089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.79% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,126 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.10%. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $1/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -526 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons, up 5.0 tons. From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main ports was 8.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week was 10.2 tons at the main ports and 2.5 tons at the secondary ports. The inventory continued to accumulate [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. There is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has bottomed out and rebounded [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite differences in the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, the overall monetary policy tone strengthens the market's expectation of loose trading. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - There are differences within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious pace of 25 basis points per cut, while Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. Trump said he had a phone call with Russian President Putin and would meet with him in Budapest to discuss ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 958.00 yuan/gram and closed at 966.42 yuan/gram, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 981.90 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,938.00 yuan/kg and closed at 12,017.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,204,572 lots, and the open interest was 468,355 lots. The night session closed at 12,208 yuan/kg, up 1.59% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 16, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.973%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.553%, a decrease of 0.21 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 493 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 288 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 611,400 lots, a change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position increased by 2 lots, and the short position decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,239,346 lots, a change of 8.63% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,022.60 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,423 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On October 16, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -7.79 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,446.70 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.42, a change of 0.21% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 79.70, a change of -3.10% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 87,610 kg, a change of 58.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,365,382 kg, a change of -19.66% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 15,260 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,290 kg [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The overall supply - demand pattern of the market is stable, with both long and short factors coexisting and a lack of strong trends. Future attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9312.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 10 yuan or - 0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8256.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00 yuan or + 0.05%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9935.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00 yuan or + 0.03% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or - 0.22%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 122.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8420.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton or - 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 164.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or + 0.10%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 315.00, an increase of 7.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel program for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026. The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) increased by 3, 3, and 1 dollars/ton respectively compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes also increased by 2 cents/bushel for all regions. Last week (October 5 - 11), Brazil exported 1538934 tons of soybeans, 266768 tons of soybean meal, and 902772 tons of corn, and this week (October 12 - 18) it plans to export 2153936 tons of soybeans, 672337 tons of soybean meal, and 1889800 tons of corn [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the port destocking rate has slowed down, domestic production capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization has decreased with inventory pressure in some products [2] - For styrene, the absolute level of port inventory remains high, downstream capacity utilization has a mixed performance with high finished - product inventory pressure, and there are both maintenance and new - device commissioning situations, along with increasing import pressure [2] - The recommended strategies are to short - hedge BZ and EB on rallies, and to do reverse spreads on the EB2511 - EB2512 spread on rallies [3] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main contract basis is - 29 yuan/ton (- 75), and the spot - M2 spread is 50 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Styrene: The main contract basis is - 65 yuan/ton (- 65 yuan/ton) [1] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 139 dollars/ton (+ 4 dollars/ton), and the FOB Korea processing fee is 124 dollars/ton (+ 4 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 582 yuan/ton (+ 6 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories and Capacity Utilization Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 9.00 million tons (- 0.10 million tons), and the domestic capacity utilization rate has declined [1][2] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 196,500 tons (- 5,400 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 121,500 tons (+ 5,100 tons), and the capacity utilization rate is 71.9% (- 1.7%) [1] IV. Styrene Downstream Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 280 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate is 62.52% (+ 21.78%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 170 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate is 53.80% (- 0.80%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is - 251 yuan/ton (- 64 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate is 73.10% (+ 0.60%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1,865 yuan/ton (- 35), and the capacity utilization rate is 92.41% (- 3.59%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 526 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the phenol capacity utilization rate is 78.00% (+ 0.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is 826 yuan/ton (+ 348), and the capacity utilization rate is 75.73% (- 1.43%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1,279 yuan/ton (+ 9), and the capacity utilization rate is 59.10% (- 7.80%) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream prices of energy and agriculture have declined recently. Specifically, international oil prices have dropped significantly, and pork prices have also fallen [1]. - The chip manufacturing industry is showing a strong trend. TSMC's Q3 financial report exceeded market expectations, boosting market optimism about the increasing demand for AI chips. TSMC is confident in the positive development of the AI market [1]. - China's foreign trade has withstood pressure and shown a stable and positive trend in the first three quarters of this year. The Ministry of Commerce will strengthen policy reserves and introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Production Industry - TSMC's Q3 revenue and net profit exceeded market expectations, indicating strong demand for AI chips. The company is confident in the AI market. In terms of technology and capacity, the A16 process is expected to be mass - produced in the second half of the year, the 2 - nanometer process will be mass - produced later this quarter, and multiple phases of 2 - nanometer wafer fabs are being prepared in Taiwan. The second wafer fab in Japan has started construction [1]. Service Industry - The Ministry of Commerce will strengthen policy reserves and introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade. It will work on releasing policy effectiveness, promoting trade, and deepening trade cooperation [1]. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have declined significantly [1]. - Agriculture: Pork prices have fallen [1]. Midstream - Chemical: The PTA operating rate is at a medium level compared to the same period in the past three years [1]. - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants has decreased [1]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have rebounded from a low level [1]. Key Industry Price Indicators - Many agricultural products' prices have declined, such as corn (-1.61%), eggs (-1.63%), palm oil (-1.28%), etc. on October 16 [34]. - Most non - ferrous metals' prices have decreased, including copper (-0.59%), zinc (-1.06%), nickel (-1.18%), etc. on October 16 [34]. - Energy prices have mixed trends. WTI crude oil increased by 7.53%, while Brent crude oil decreased by 6.55% on October 16 [34]. - Chemical product prices generally declined, like PTA (-3.51%), polyethylene (-1.43%), etc. on October 16 [34]. - Real estate - related indices, such as the building materials composite index (-1.49%) and the concrete price index (-0.34%), have decreased on October 16 [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are average, with the industrial silicon market mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - end news, and the polysilicon market affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality [3][7]. - Industrial silicon is undervalued currently, and if there are relevant policies, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, relevant policies are expected to be introduced this year, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8555 yuan/ton and closed at 8605 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 131,649 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,291 lots, a decrease of 66 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 9300 - 9400 (- 50) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton. The price in regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang also decreased [1]. - As of October 16, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from last week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 442,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from last week [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,100 - 11,500 (0) yuan/ton. The market average price increased by 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. The DMC quotes of Shandong monomer enterprises and other domestic monomer enterprises also increased [2]. Strategy - The spot price is generally stable with minor fluctuations, and the inventory increased significantly on a weekly basis. The overall fundamentals are average. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - end news. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and it is advisable to buy on dips for contracts during the dry season. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 50,690 yuan/ton and closing at 52,575 yuan/ton, a 3.48% change from the previous trading day. The position was 78,885 lots (80,114 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 266,129 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.50 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.30 (a 5.33% change), and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.31GW (a 3.16% change). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000.00 tons (0.00% change), and the silicon wafer output was 14.35GW (an 11.85% change) [4][5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. The polysilicon price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading was light during the National Day, and there were few new transactions. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and is expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5][6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large overall inventory pressure, less - than - expected production cuts, and difficult price transmission downstream. The short - term trading situation has weakened. - The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will put some pressure on the market. The market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [7].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-17 据SMM讯，昨日SMM1#铅价前一个交易日上涨50元/吨。河南地区铅冶炼企业库存偏低，持货商报价对沪铅2511 合约贴水100-80元/吨出厂预售，现货处于排队提货状态；湖南地区冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅升水0-25元/吨出厂，部 分厂家库存售罄后暂停报价；江西、安徽地区冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅升水100-150元/吨报价预售。下游蓄电池企 业维持刚需采购，而铅市场供应地域性差异较大，供应偏紧地区高价现货有部分成交。 库存方面：2025-10-16，SMM铅锭库存总量为3.8万吨，较上周同期变化0.17万吨。截止10月16日，LME铅库存为 252000吨，较上一交易日变化-2775吨。 策略 绝对价格：中性 目前阶段，铅精矿加工费在副产品价格持续走高的情况下仍然较低，而基本面则暂无太大的矛盾，下游企业下周 预计将完全从假期中恢复，不过暂时或以以销定产模式居多，预计铅价暂时呈现震荡格局，区间大致在16,920元/ 吨至17,300元/吨。 短期基本面矛盾有限 铅价继续震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-10-16，LME铅现货升水为-44.09美元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The glass industry is in a stage of oversupply, and it is necessary to reduce prices, compress profits, and cut production to ease industry contradictions. Suggest paying attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and subsequent changes in production lines on the supply side [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains prominent, with increasing supply pressure and relatively stable demand. There is a large pressure for inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to changes in soda ash supply and downstream demand [1]. - The losses of silicomanganese enterprises are intensifying, and both production and operating rates have declined. The demand from downstream maintains resilience, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Future attention should be paid to changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3]. - With the continuous compression of steel mill profits, the motivation for ferrosilicon production increase is insufficient. The downstream demand maintains resilience, the industry's supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Follow - up attention should be paid to cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies [3]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures market oscillated narrowly. Downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for rigid demand. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.35%, a 0.35% increase from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a 2.39% increase from the previous week, showing obvious inventory accumulation [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market oscillated. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid replenishment. This week, the soda ash output was 740,500 tons, a 3.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory slightly increased to 1.7005 million tons [1]. Double Silicon - **Silicomanganese**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,754 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase from the previous day. The final pricing of mainstream steel tenders was still under negotiation. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures oscillated upward, closing at 5,456 yuan/ton, a 1.94% increase from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, waiting for the standard set by Hebei Iron and Steel to guide the market. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,100 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 6,100 yuan/ton [3]. Strategies - **Glass**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating [2] - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillating [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillating [4] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-17 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11905元/吨，较前交易日变动-290元/吨，幅度-2.38%。现货方面，河南地区外 三元生猪价格11.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-695，较前交易日变动+270；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.44元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH01-465，较前交易日变动-395；四川地 区外三元生猪价格10.73元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH01-1175，较前交易日变动+490。 据农业农村部监测，据农业农村部监测，10月16日"农产品批发价格200指数"为119.41，比昨天上升0.34个点，"菜 篮子"产品批发价格指数为120.44，比昨天上升0.40个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.02元/公斤，比昨 天下降1.0%；牛肉66.22元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；羊肉62.07元/公斤，比昨天上升0.7%；鸡蛋7.46元/公斤，比昨 天上升0.3%；白条鸡17.73元/公斤，比昨天上升1.3%。 市场分析 综合来看，前期 ...