Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Urea spot prices have increased, but the sentiment for taking delivery has slowed. The operating rates of compound fertilizer in Northeast China and Hubei have continued to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall improvement in the operating rate. The melamine plant has resumed production, with the operating rate rebounding and rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage continues to purchase. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to - long term. The gas - based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter will gradually start in December. Due to the follow - up of reserve demand, export stocking, and the improvement of compound fertilizer operating rate, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with factory inventories decreasing and port inventories slightly increasing. The export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation, which is expected to support the spot market. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down, and continuous attention should be paid to the domestic spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][8][13][15] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][30][32] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [29][34][37][44] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventories, port inventories, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [50][53][56] Market Data Price and Basis - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,688 yuan/ton (- 4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (+ 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,700 yuan/ton (+ 20). The price of small - piece anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 22 yuan/ton (+ 34), in Henan was 22 yuan/ton (+ 24), and in Jiangsu was 12 yuan/ton (+ 24). The urea production profit was 180 yuan/ton (+ 30), and the export profit was 928 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] Supply Side - As of December 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 million tons (- 73,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons (+ 5,000 tons) [1] Demand Side - As of December 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.53% (+ 3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+ 0.86%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 7.35 days (+ 0.70) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 社会库存继续下滑华东升水持续走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为186.85美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化200元/吨至22990元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22880元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-40元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22870元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 绝对价格上涨突破23000元/吨，下游采购偏谨慎，天津和广东地区贴水扩大，但社会库存持续下滑，供应相对偏紧， 华东升水进一步走高。出口窗口持续打开，国内仓单库存小幅下滑，基本面方面全面偏向利好。11月冶炼端产量 环比回落且明显低于预期，现货升贴水持续向上修复，一方面体现消费强度另一方面体现供应偏紧。海内外TC持 续下滑， 国内高海拔矿山已经进入冬季停产检修周期，TC价格的快速回落叠加绝对价格的回落造成冶炼综合成本 开始面临亏损，在供给端压力后期有望下滑。基本面数据已经全面从前期利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，美 国12月降息预期提高，但对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不改，再通胀尚未体现。 策 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited. Long - term attention should be paid to the 05 contract [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - end: Brent oil prices range from $60 - 65 per barrel. OPEC+ agreed to keep production stable next year, and eight major oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in Q1 next year, partially alleviating oil price pressure, but the overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, and geopolitical and macro events may affect market sentiment. PX load remains high, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and processing fees are expected to gradually improve in the long - run. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period). Although weaving orders are weakening, the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% due to low inventory in polyester factories. PF has good fundamentals but weakening demand, and the processing fee is slightly compressed. PR's fundamentals change little, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 32 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 184 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 266 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan increase from the previous period). The PXN of PX is 286 dollars/ton (a 2.25 - dollar increase from the previous period) [1] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load can be maintained at a high level, and PXN has support under the support of polyester operation. The PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve in the long - run [1][3] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - India's BIS cancellation has boosted PTA export demand [1] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - PX load remains high, and PTA has concentrated maintenance recently, and the supply - demand situation has improved [1][3] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Polyester factory inventory is currently low [2] Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period), and it is expected to remain around 91% in the short - term [2] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 183 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period). Short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level. However, downstream demand is weakening, and the processing fee is slightly compressed [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 445 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, large manufacturers continue to cut or stop production, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [2]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：供需格局未改，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行，盘面成交活跃，持仓量下降。现货方面，区域有所分化，整体维持弱稳。 据隆众数据显示，本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5944.2万重箱，环比减少4.68%。供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加， 带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍显不足，供需矛盾依旧较大。库存有所去化，但仍处高位。后续 玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。现货方面，整体价格持稳，以刚需采购为主。供需与逻辑：纯碱产销存 数据均有所回落，供需矛盾得到小幅缓解，但库存仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预期，重碱 需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：建材消费数据尚可，合金期货有所反弹 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日钢联公布了本周钢材消费情况，整体看建材消费强劲，去 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 期现：无 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 供需与逻辑：供应端，我的钢铁数据显示成材供应有所回落，需求压力仍在。板材供需矛盾仍未解决。当前弱现 实强预期叠加成本托底，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储 行情启动情况。 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3148元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3323元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格基本和昨日持稳，低价为主，出货意愿持续增加，全国建材成交93867吨。 策略 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求预期走弱，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘794.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交85.6万吨，环比减少 26.84%。 供需与逻辑：目前供需矛盾持续蓄力，铁水产量环比减量，钢厂盈利率持续压缩，淡季逐渐深入，铁水季节性下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Although crude oil prices have rebounded slightly from the low level recently, the medium - term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical premium may further subside, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil from the cost side [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread continues to decline. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East showed signs of recovery in early December, possibly driven by the decrease in refinery maintenance and power plant demand. Currently, the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread needs incremental demand from refineries to support it [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance of the Azur refinery, the shipping volume of Kuwait tracked from November to now remains zero. There is still short - term support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly from the low level, but the medium - term oversupply expectation in the oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may subside, suppressing fuel oil prices from the cost side [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, crack spread is declining. Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil shipments recovered in early December, possibly due to less refinery maintenance and power plant demand. The crack spread needs refinery demand support [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is generally abundant with local reductions. Due to refinery maintenance, Kuwait's shipping volume is zero. There is short - term support, and the high - low sulfur spread may fluctuate strongly with limited upside [1] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading data of stock index options on December 3, 2025, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), offering an overview of the stock index option market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On December 3, 2025, the trading volumes of various options were as follows: 43.13 million contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 56.06 million for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), 77.35 million for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), 5.68 million for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 168.90 million for GEM ETF options, 2.51 million for SSE 50 stock index options, 6.03 million for CSI 300 stock index options, and 18.97 million for CSI 1000 options [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes of each option is also provided in Table 1 [20]. Option PCR - The report shows the PCR data of different options on December 3, 2025. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.03 with a +0.16 change compared to the previous period, and the position PCR was 0.98 with a - 0.03 change [2]. - Similar data for other options such as CSI 300 ETF options, CSI 500 ETF options, etc., are also presented, including their turnover and position PCR and corresponding changes [2][36]. Option VIX - The VIX data of various options on December 3, 2025, are reported. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 14.02% with a +0.02% change compared to the previous period [3]. - The VIX and its changes of other options like CSI 300 ETF options, CSI 500 ETF options are also included in the report [3][53].

Report Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The report presents the trading liquidity data of various market sectors on December 3, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Board Liquidity - The liquidity of different market sectors is analyzed, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Board - On December 3, 2025, the stock index board had a trading volume of 560.771 billion yuan, a +22.06% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1307.145 billion yuan, a +4.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 42.50% [1] III. Treasury Bond Board - On December 3, 2025, the treasury bond board had a trading volume of 347.233 billion yuan, a -2.08% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 752.001 billion yuan, a +2.70% change; the trading - holding ratio was 46.48% [1] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Board) - Base metals: On December 3, 2025, the trading volume was 443.560 billion yuan, a +7.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 647.715 billion yuan, a +1.22% change; the trading - holding ratio was 66.90% - Precious metals: On December 3, 2025, the trading volume was 1103.452 billion yuan, a +3.57% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 486.283 billion yuan, a -0.67% change; the trading - holding ratio was 357.37% [1] V. Energy and Chemicals Board - On December 3, 2025, the energy and chemicals board had a trading volume of 399.981 billion yuan, a +4.47% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 465.694 billion yuan, a +0.51% change; the trading - holding ratio was 74.15% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Board - On December 3, 2025, the agricultural products board had a trading volume of 276.631 billion yuan, a -5.39% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 606.869 billion yuan, a -0.57% change; the trading - holding ratio was 45.93% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Board - On December 3, 2025, the black building materials board had a trading volume of 213.907 billion yuan, a +12.99% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 355.697 billion yuan, a -0.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 60.87% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound. For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to stay in a low - level震荡 state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 118,050 yuan/ton and closed at 117,870 yuan/ton, a change of 0.11% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 112,448 (+23,926) lots, and the open interest was 118,618 (-3,306) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel continued a slight rebound, supported by the improved liquidity expectation as the probability of a 25 - bp Fed rate cut in December approached 90%. However, fundamentals suppressed the price, resulting in limited rebound strength with an amplitude of about 1.12%. In November, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a 14.85% month - on - month decrease, narrowing the surplus situation [1] - The nickel ore market was quiet with a wait - and - see attitude. Nickel ore prices were under pressure due to recent lower transactions and weak downstream ferronickel prices. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and northern mines had not started new tenders. Downstream iron plants, facing losses, tried to lower raw - material prices, and some planned production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium was +25 [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands were generally stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed - 50 yuan/ton to 4,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 32,595 (+244) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,475 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 80,361 (-14,747) lots, and the open interest was 96,947 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel continued to be led by the Shanghai nickel price and showed a slight rebound, but the amplitude was only 65 yuan/ton, the smallest in recent times. Fundamentals changed little recently, and the continuous rebound trend might continue due to the increased Fed rate - cut expectation, but the rebound strength was expected to be limited [3] - Market confidence had increased recently, and transactions improved to some extent. However, due to fundamental constraints, spot trading cooled today compared with yesterday, and quotes were basically flat. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand situation remains loose, and the market rebound is weak. The overall start - up of propylene has slightly increased, and the start - up of some downstream products has recovered, but downstream resistance to high - priced raw materials exists. The cost side has uncertainties, and the rebound space of the market is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][8][10] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][21] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [40][41][48] V. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures are the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [66]