纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-02-03 原油带动纯苯系品种回调 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差69元/吨（+30）。纯苯港口库存30.50万吨（+0.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费177美元/吨 （-7美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费177美元/吨（-7美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差86.0美元/吨（+3.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差-120元/吨（-15元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-840元/吨（+160），酚酮生产利润-766元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润1134元/吨（-107）， 己二酸生产利润-241元/吨（+288）。己内酰胺开工率73.57%（-2.60%），苯酚开工率88.00%（+2.50%），苯胺开工 率88.53%（+0.92%），己二酸开工率68.50%（-0.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差237元/吨（+1元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润501元/吨（-112元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存108600吨（+8000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存60800吨（-1500吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率69.3%（- ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 有色板块集体回撤，碳酸锂价格再次跌停 市场分析 2026-02-02，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于146000元/吨，收于132440元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-13.99%。当 日成交量为644314手，持仓量为347698手，前一交易日持仓量372601手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为7220元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单32241手，较上个交易日变化1610手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价145000-166000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-5000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价142000-162000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-5000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2090美元/吨，较前一日变化-85美元/吨。 为适应新型电力系统建设需要，国家发展改革委、国家能源局于2026年1月30日发布了《关于完善发电侧容量电价 机制的通知》（发改价格〔2026〕114号）。该政策首次明确容量电价机制，鼓励长时储能的建设运营，同时扩大了 补偿覆盖范围，将对储能需求以及碳酸锂价格产生较为积极的影响。但昨日贵金属、有色板块集体回撤，多品种 跌停， ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-03 关注液氯价格波动 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5014元/吨（-49）；华东基差-234元/吨（+49）;华南基差-164元/吨（+49）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+50）；电石利润52元/吨（+50）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-744元/吨（+55）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利21元/吨（+70）；PVC出口利润-11.6美元/吨（-12.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存29.0万吨（-1.8）；PVC社会库存58.5万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率79.98%（-0.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.61%（-2.43%）；PVC开工率77.13%（-0.85%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量96.0万吨（+7.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2004元/吨（+29）；山东32%液碱基差-138元/吨（-32）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价597元/吨（-1）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

油料日报 | 2026-02-03 豆一短期支撑偏强，花生节前交投分化 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4393.00元/吨，较前日变化+11.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+47，较前日变化-11，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北地区大豆现货价格近日上调20-30元/吨。当前产区农户和贸易商惜售情绪较浓，市场可流通粮 源较往年同期偏紧，加之部分企业已开始为春节进行滚动补库，共同推动大豆价格走高。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔 滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮 装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔 讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮 装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.33元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格宽幅震荡。近期中储粮大豆购销环节呈现双向拍卖百分百成交与单向拍卖并行态势， 但春节 ...

化工板块回调，且伊朗局势未进一步激化 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润280元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1785元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差133元/吨（+68），内蒙南线1810元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2183元/吨（-13），鲁 南基差131元/吨（+56）；河南2010元/吨（-5），河南基差-42元/吨（+63）；河北2015元/吨（+0），河北基差23元/吨 （+68）。隆众内地工厂库存424720吨（-13700），西北工厂库存242100吨（-19300）；隆众内地工厂待发订单265660 吨（+27392），西北工厂待发订单163800吨（+13000）。 甲醇日报 | 2026-02-03 贵金属及有色金属大幅下跌带动整个商品板块回调，拖累化工品价格走势。 港口方面。伊朗局势未进一步激化，关注局势后续发展，目前倾向于非战的谈判，而中国甲醇港口库存仍维持高 位，继续等待去库预期的兑现。进入2月市场开始预期伊朗装置冬检复工，但目前未有具体计划时间，关注实际复 工进度及伊朗局势对其的影响。而中国到港兑现滞后下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Views - The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are gradually being depleted, with a shortage of near - month arrivals. Affected by the macro - level recently, domestic soybean meal prices have been oscillating strongly. However, due to the expected high yield of the new - season Brazilian soybeans, the supply pressure will gradually be released in the future, and soybean meal prices are expected to mainly oscillate [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of grain farmers and traders to sell grains has improved, but the snowfall has slowed down the purchase and sales rhythm. On the demand side, the north - south port inventories are still relatively low, with a certain replenishment demand. Deep - processing and feed enterprises' inventories have increased significantly after previous restocking and are currently mainly purchasing as needed, lacking obvious guiding factors before the festival [4] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2750 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2276 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton (- 0.48%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 410 (a change of + 7 from the previous day); in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 290 (a change of + 7 from the previous day); in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 290 (a change of - 13 from the previous day). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2470 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 194 (a change of - 9 from the previous day) [1] - Market News: As of January 28, the sowing of the 2025/26 soybean season in Argentina was 99.5% complete, up from 96.2% a week ago. Currently, 83.8% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, slightly lower than the previous report [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are being gradually consumed, with less near - month arrivals. Waiting for the new - season Brazilian soybeans to arrive, and affected by the macro - level recently, domestic soybean meal prices are oscillating strongly. However, due to the high - yield pressure of the new - season Brazilian soybeans, the supply pressure will gradually be released in the future, and soybean meal prices are expected to mainly oscillate [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is neutral [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2261 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.44%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a change of - 8 yuan/ton (- 0.32%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C03 + 69 (no change from the previous day); in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS03 + 117 (a change of + 8 from the previous day) [3] - Market News: As of January 28, the corn planting area in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 97.2% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), up from 93.1% a week ago [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of grain farmers and traders to sell grains has improved, but the snowfall has slowed down the purchase and sales rhythm. The north - south port inventories are still relatively low, with a certain replenishment demand. Deep - processing and feed enterprises' inventories have increased significantly after previous restocking and are currently mainly purchasing as needed, lacking obvious guiding factors before the festival [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [5]

原油日报 | 2026-02-03 伊朗局势出现转向，油价大幅回落 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌3.07美元，收于每桶62.14美元，跌幅为4.71%；4月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌3.02美元，收于每桶66.30美元，跌幅为4.36%。SC原油主力合约收跌4.80%，报450元/ 桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 2月3日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，今天上午有幸与印度总理莫迪进行了交谈。他是我最要好的朋 友之一，也是其国家一位极具影响力且备受尊敬的领导人。我们谈到了很多内容，包括贸易以及结束俄乌之间的 战争。他同意停止购买俄罗斯石油，并增加从美国甚至可能是委内瑞拉的进口量。这将有助于结束正在发生的乌 克兰冲突，这场冲突每周都有成千上万的人丧生！出于对莫迪总理的友谊和尊重，按照他的要求，从即日起，我 们双方同意建立美国与印度之间的贸易协议。根据该协议，美国将降低对印度的对等关税，从25%降至18%。他们 也将逐步取消对美国的关税和非关税壁垒，直至完全消除。莫迪总理还承诺"购买美国产品"，同时将采购价值超 过5000亿美元的美国能源、技术、农产品、煤 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral [8] - Option strategy: Sell put options [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, but it is unlikely to show strong performance before the Spring Festival [1] - The supply shortage and difficult long - term contract negotiations support the price center, but the full increase in global visible inventory and the accumulation of domestic social inventory above 320,000 tons highlight the suppression of real consumption by high copper prices [8] - In February, the supply - demand contradiction will be temporarily alleviated, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate between 97,000 yuan/ton and 110,000 yuan/ton [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 104,200 yuan/ton and closed at 98,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.92% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,490 yuan/ton and closed at 100,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 180 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 130 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan. The spot price range was 99,880 - 101,040 yuan/ton [2] - The decline in copper prices stimulated a significant increase in terminal orders, with some enterprises' order volume increasing by up to 60% [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical: Iran may hold high - level nuclear negotiations with the US in the next few days, and the Russia - Ukraine issue negotiation will be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4 - 5 [3] - The US plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve project "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion [3] - Mine end: The Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile of Capstone Copper has resumed operation, but the strike by nearly 22% of its employees is still ongoing [4] - Smelting and import: LME copper inventory increased and then decreased slightly, SHFE copper inventory continued to accumulate, international copper inventory decreased, and New York copper inventory continued to accumulate [5] - Consumption: In January 2026, copper product terminal consumption showed pre - holiday rush characteristics with differentiation among sectors. In February, terminal consumption is expected to enter a seasonal trough [6] - Inventory and warrants: LME warrants decreased by 1,100 tons to 174,675 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 1,676 tons to 158,527 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 330,400 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy - Copper: Maintain a neutral rating. The spot TC at the mine end has dropped to a record low of - 49.84 dollars/ton. The supply shortage and difficult long - term contract negotiations support the price center. The copper price is expected to fluctuate between 97,000 yuan/ton and 110,000 yuan/ton in February [8] - Option: Sell put options [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is clearly supported by the rising prices of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain under the situation of double reduction in supply and demand. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. In February, many polysilicon enterprises have a clear plan to stop production, and the supply tends to shrink. Recently, the sharp drop in silver prices has alleviated the downstream cost pressure, and the demand has improved marginally. After the polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the expectation of coordinated price support failed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the downstream production capacity accelerating to clear out [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 2, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,880 yuan/ton and closed at 8,795 yuan/ton, a change of (-105) yuan/ton or (-1.18)% compared with the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 236,313 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 1, 2026, was 13,943 lots, a change of 288 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 (100) yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on January 29 was 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared with the previous week [1]. - The supply side of industrial silicon is expected to have production cuts and shutdowns in February. During the Spring Festival and the traditional off - season, the supply side tends to shrink [2]. - On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon is expected to increase in the short term due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic value - added tax. However, the demand for industrial silicon is sluggish due to inventory accumulation and production cuts by large polysilicon manufacturers in February. The organic silicon industry has a production cut expectation, and the operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys shows a marginal weakening trend, and the operating rate is expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening in the future [2]. Polysilicon - On February 2, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated and declined, opening at 47,250 yuan/ton and closing at 47,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 1.66% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 40,278 (42,513 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 17,789 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 47.60 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 47.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 333,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.90%, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.29GW, with a month - on - month change of 1.90%, the weekly output of polysilicon was 20,200.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75GW, with a month - on - month change of 8.20% [3]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.53 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.33 (0.00) yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm components was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm components was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [3]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [6].

农产品日报 | 2026-02-03 供应端上升压力，需求端静待增量 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11220元/吨，较前交易日变动+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.31元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1650，较前交易日变动+410；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.05元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1830，较前交易日变动+250； 四川地区外三元生猪价格11.97元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.03元/公斤，现货基差LH03+750，较前交易日变动-170。 据农业农村部监测，2月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.12，比上周五下降0.55个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.04，比上周五下降0.64个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.44元/公斤，比上周五下降0.9%；牛 肉65.95元/公斤，与上周五持平；羊肉63.84元/公斤，比上周五上升0.1%；鸡蛋8.69元/公斤，比上周五上升0.8%； 白条鸡17.35元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4 ...