尿素日报 | 2025-07-25 政策面持续影响，上游去库速率减弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-24，尿素主力收盘1785元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1830 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1810元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1820元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：25 元/吨（-32）；河南基差：45元/吨（-32）；江苏基差：35元/吨（-32）；尿素生产利润280元/吨（-20），出口利润1079 元/吨（-3）。 供应端：截至2025-07-24，企业产能利用率83.59%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨（-3.67），港口样本 库存量为54.30 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-24，复合肥产能利用率33.58%（+1.03%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.20%（+0.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（-0.12）。 政府公布"反内卷、淘汰落后产能"等宏观政策，持续影响尿素市场，下游受情绪带动，宏观面对价格有一定提振。 尿素装置检修较少，开工高位运行，供应端压力持续。下游农业需求推进放缓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity continue to boost the propylene and polyolefin markets. The elimination of backward production capacity in the propylene industry is expected to shift the domestic propylene market from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation. However, the current overall propylene operating rate is at a seasonally low level, and downstream demand has limited driving force. For polyolefins, although macro policies boost the market, the cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains weak during the seasonal off - season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene 3.1.1 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [10][12] 3.1.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [13][18][22] 3.1.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Covers propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate, and the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, and CFR in Southeast Asia and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [25][28][33] 3.1.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][40][42] 3.1.5 Propylene Inventory - Comprises propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [59][61] 3.2 Polyolefins 3.2.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Involves the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [63][64][70] 3.2.2 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers LL production profit from crude oil, PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit from crude oil and PDH, PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [71][72][77] 3.2.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Includes the price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [84][91][92] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Involves LL import profit, the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FD in Europe and China CFR, PP import and export profit, and the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FOB in Northwest Europe of PP homopolymer injection molding and China CFR [93][97][109] 3.2.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and the production gross profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [117][120][127] 3.2.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Comprises the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [133][134][136]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution" governance. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the standards for identifying improper price behaviors and regulate market price order. Additionally, the automobile replacement subsidy policies in many places have been adjusted [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the mid - year monetary policy adjustment. On July 25, the central bank conducted a 400 - billion - yuan Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - In the black sector, the prices of upstream black products have been continuously rising [2]. - In the agricultural sector, egg prices have been on a continuous upward trend [2]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of polyester and PX have remained stable [3]. - In the energy sector, the coal consumption has been increasing recently [3]. Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in third - tier cities have slightly rebounded [3]. - In the service sector, the number of summer flight schedules has increased [3]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 25, the industry credit spreads of various sectors showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector was 58.97 (previous week: 60.41), and that of the real estate sector was 99.89 (previous week: 101.86) [48]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 24, the prices of various products showed different trends. For instance, the spot price of eggs was 6.9 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 19.24%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.3 US dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.70% [49].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-25 盘面镍价小幅上涨，现货升贴水持稳 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-24日沪镍主力合约2509开于123810元/吨，收于124360元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.66%，当日成交量为 162621手，持仓量为98904手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘快速冲高回落后盘整，日盘继续小幅冲高后振荡回落，午后小幅回升，收阳线。成交量较上个 交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。记者24日获悉，韩国和美国原定于当地时间25日举行的财长+贸 易谈判代表"2+2"关税协商因美国财长贝森特的紧急日程而推迟。7月24日，总台记者获悉，当天欧盟成员国投票 通过了一项对总额930亿欧元的美国产品加征反制关税的措施。如果无法在8月1日美关税措施生效日之前与美达成 满意的贸易协议，反制措施将于8月7日开始生效。总统每日公开行程显示，美国总统特朗普将于当地时间周四16 点亲自造访美联储。郑栅洁：推动整治内卷式竞争、拓展产业链供应链合作。经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局 委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上 个交易日上调约60 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-25 库存方面：截至2025-07-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.83万吨，较上周同期增加0.48万吨。截止2025-07-24，LME 锌库存为116900吨，较上一交易日增加1575吨。 市场分析 市场整体乐观情绪依旧存在，但沪锌价格表现出上涨乏力，上方压力较大。成本端，在锌矿进口窗口关闭的情况 下，6月份进口量同比增加3.2%，进口矿TC仍在继续上涨，冶炼利润维持，供给端增量预期不变，冶炼厂原料储 备充足，对矿端采购积极性不高。消费端，虽然下游开工率水平表现出相对韧性，整体消费并不差，但难敌供应 端的高增长。国内社会库存呈现累库趋势，预计下半年累库趋势不变。虽然工信部稳增长工作方案着力调结构， 优供给，淘汰落后产能的政策拉动市场情绪普涨，但预估与曾经供给侧改革不同，情绪扰动后，过剩的格局或将 重新主导价格走势。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 浪潮退去后基本面逻辑有望回归 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-0.71 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨60元/吨至2 ...

策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-25 需求表现疲软，现货市场情绪一般 市场分析 1、7月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3602元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌0.28%；持仓186523 手，环比下降11661手，成交166978手，环比下跌34978手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3610—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3600元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 近日BU盘面走势转弱，除了基准油价的回调外，稀释沥青原料供应增加的预期也对沥青成本端形成一定压制。华 北、山东以及华南市场沥青现货价格均有所下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主，整体市场情绪一般。就 沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，降雨天气对终端需求释放形成阻碍，不过库存仍处于低位，还未 出现明显累库信号，市场短期压力有限，但上行驱动不足。 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The downstream备货 enthusiasm for lead is poor, and the lead price is oscillating weakly. The market for mainstream lead sources has relatively active inquiries, but the secondary lead market remains sluggish. The peak - season demand is not significantly evident, so the lead price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton, and a short strangle option strategy [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 25.21 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 40.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On July 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,910 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,419 lots, a decrease of 23,791 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 69,992 lots, an increase of 7,720 lots. During the day, the price oscillated, with a high of 16,945 yuan/ton and a low of 16,840 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,890 yuan/ton and closed at 16,865 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon session [1] Supply and Demand Situation - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, sellers offered at the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In the Hunan region, some smelters had low inventories, mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and suspended spot sales or raised the premium to 100 - 150 yuan/ton above the SMM1 lead price, with actual transactions at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. In the Jiangxi region, sellers offered at a premium of 50 - 150 yuan/ton above the SMM1 lead price. In the Yunnan region, sellers offered at a discount of 240 - 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. Due to the weak lead price, downstream buyers were cautious and hesitant, and as the end of the month approached, smelters' inventories decreased, and their enthusiasm for sales also declined, resulting in a dull market [2] Inventory Situation - On July 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous week. As of July 24, the LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, an increase of 6,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to buy low and sell high between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton, and the option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG fundamentals are currently weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is also some short - term support from the crude oil side. The strategy for the single - side is to expect a volatile market and focus on the bottom - building signals of the market [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On July 24, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4670; Northeast market, 4190 - 4380; North China market, 4530 - 4680; East China market, 4330 - 4600; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4690; Northwest market, 4070 - 4250; South China market, 4548 - 4700 [1]. - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 552 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton, and butane was 529 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4338 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton, and butane was 4157 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 547 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars/ton, and butane was 526 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4299 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton, and butane was 4134 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [1]. - The LPG fundamentals are weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract has some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is short - term support from the crude oil side. Spot prices in the Yangtze River and Northwest regions increased slightly, while prices in other regions remained stable. Overseas supply is abundant, US exports are at a high level, the arrival volume in July increased again, and the decline in domestic commodity volume is limited, resulting in sufficient overall supply. The demand for civil gas is in the off - season, and the combustion demand is weak. The profit of PDH in deep - processing has improved marginally recently, and the operating rate has rebounded to around 75% this week [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Volatile, focus on the bottom - building signals of the market. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]. Figures The report includes figures showing various data such as spot prices of civil LPG in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River), spot prices of ether - after carbon four in different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River, Northwest), and closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts (main contract, index, near - month contract) [3].

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-25 股债跷跷板明显，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6% 降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存 整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存 款利率" 联动调控路径；7月LPR报价持稳，1年期LPR报3%，上次为3%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上次为3.5%；关 税方面，中美正加速执行伦敦框架成果 2）通胀：6月CPI同比上升0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-07-24，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了3310亿元7天的逆回购操作。（4）货 币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.635%、1.545%、1.615% 和1.536%，回购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-07-24，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.30元、105.59元、108.22元、118.25元。涨跌 幅： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation on July 24, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared with the previous trading day for various sectors such as the stock index, treasury bonds, basic metals, precious metals, energy and chemical, agricultural products, and black building materials [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, and other data of each plate [5][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On July 24, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 572.714 billion yuan, a 7.90% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1149.608 billion yuan, a 1.65% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 49.83% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On July 24, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 527.757 billion yuan, a 2.36% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 908.774 billion yuan, a 0.69% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 58.15% [1] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - Basic metals: On July 24, 2025, the trading volume was 790.139 billion yuan, a 3.20% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 537.2 billion yuan, a 3.13% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 191.19% [1] - Precious metals: On July 24, 2025, the trading volume was 569.421 billion yuan, a 17.45% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 469.493 billion yuan, a 4.46% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 146.66% [1] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On July 24, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 719.87 billion yuan, a 4.22% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 431.49 billion yuan, a 0.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 157.51% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On July 24, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 397.076 billion yuan, a 1.34% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 589.056 billion yuan, a 0.77% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 63.82% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On July 24, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 660.066 billion yuan, a 4.44% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 393.851 billion yuan, a 1.87% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 160.90% [2]