Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory, insufficient demand, new device production, and weakened cost support from falling oil prices. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - The PP market is affected by weakening costs (falling oil and propane prices). Supply is increasing while demand fails to meet expectations, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to the impact on propane supply and marginal device operations [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both L and PP in the single - side trading. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. For cross - variety trading, shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3] Summaries by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6929 yuan/ton (+19), and the PP main contract is 6618 yuan/ton (+23). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 434.2 yuan/ton (-18.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 135.8 yuan/ton (-18.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is 64.9 yuan/ton (-109.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 165.0 yuan/ton (-56.8), PP import profit is - 537.9 yuan/ton (+16.1), and PP export profit is 26.9 dollars/ton (+3.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, inventory of major plastic producers has increased significantly. Demand is insufficient, and new device production and falling oil prices have weakened cost support. Supply is expected to increase, demand is lower than expected, and cost support is weakening. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - **PP**: The recent weakening of the PP market is due to falling oil and propane prices. Supply is increasing, demand fails to meet expectations, and cost support is weak. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to propane supply and marginal device operations [2] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see for both L and PP [3] - **Cross - period**: Reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [3] - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The rating for BR is neutral [7]. Report's Core View - For natural rubber, with reduced rainfall in major production areas, output is rising, and domestic raw material prices are falling. Although Thai raw material prices remain firm, the overall supply is expected to increase. After pre - holiday restocking by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down this week, but rigid demand persists due to the rising tire factory operating rate. The overall domestic supply - demand is gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the new round of state reserve sales news is confirmed. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between RU01 and 05 [6]. - For butadiene rubber (BR), the recent low - level rebound of butadiene rubber futures prices is mainly due to the news of upstream device maintenance plans, which makes the market expect a decline in future supply. The recent rebound is more of a valuation repair after a large price drop. There are still maintenance plans for domestic butadiene rubber devices in October, and the supply side is still supported. After pre - holiday restocking by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down this week, but the rising tire factory operating rate means rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. It is expected that the downstream will continue the peak - season characteristics, and the supply - demand of butadiene rubber will show a pattern of both supply and demand being strong [7]. Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,900 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,315 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,135 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. Industry Data - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales volume was about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume reached 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2]. - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3]. - According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. Looking at the August data alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales volume were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales volume of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, the automobile export volume was 4.292 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 600 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 220 yuan/ton (- 75), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,184 yuan/ton (+ 13.08), the NR basis was 814.00 yuan/ton (- 85.00); the price of whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,680 yuan/ton (+ 80), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 700 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,380 yuan/ton (+ 80) [3]. - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.39 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai latex was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35) [4]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+ 22.43%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+ 28.92%) [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (- 5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (- 705) [5]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and Spreads: On October 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 235 yuan/ton (- 90), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,800 yuan/ton (+ 180), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,084 yuan/ton (+ 174) [5]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+ 0.13%) [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (+ 1,300) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between RU01 and 05 [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. Expect the supply - demand to show a pattern of both supply and demand being strong [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Sino-US relationship is currently in a stage of game, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The market is supported by funds actively propping up heavyweight stocks, leading to a rebound in the broader market index. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Regarding the Sino-US relationship, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, expressing an open attitude towards equal consultations on the basis of mutual respect. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible extensions of tariff exemptions and a potential meeting between leaders. In the spot market, A-share indexes closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10% to 3916.23 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.38%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropped below 2 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.65% to 45952.24 points. In the futures market, the basis of the current-month contract converged upon expiration, and the trading volume and open interest of the IH contract increased [1]. Strategy - The Sino-US relationship is in a game stage, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. In the market, funds are actively supporting heavyweight stocks, driving the broader market index to rebound. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [2]. Macro - Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on October 16, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.38%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.26%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09%. There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets and the margin trading balance [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IH contract increased by 5009, and the open interest increased by 6373. The basis data of different contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are also presented, as well as the inter - period spreads between different contracts [16][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic situation shows a split between strong expectations and weak reality, with increased economic pressure in August and recent frequent mentions of growth - stabilizing policies, new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan, and attention to policy expectations and the correction of the off - season - like peak season expectations. China's September economic data such as exports, imports, new social financing, and CPI showed positive trends [1]. - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28th to November 1st [2]. - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts [3]. - In the commodity market, focus on gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors, and consider multi - allocating industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in August showed characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and external tariff pressure increased. In September, exports and imports exceeded expectations, new social financing and new RMB loans increased, and the decline in CPI and PPI narrowed [1]. - On October 16th, the A - share market fluctuated, with the coal sector rising, the shipping and port sector pulling up, and the storage chip concept remaining active [1][6]. Tariff Friction - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated, with the US adding tariffs on Chinese products and listing Chinese companies on the entity list, and China taking counter - measures such as export controls on rare earths and charging special port fees for US ships [2]. US Government Shutdown - The US Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and the US judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from laying off employees during the "shutdown". Multiple US economic data releases were delayed, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [3]. Commodity Market - In the commodity market, focus on gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations, the energy supply is considered to be moderately loose in the medium - term, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations, and gold is expected to continue to strengthen [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, multi - allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. A - Share Market - On October 16th, the A - share market fluctuated, with more stocks falling than rising, and sectors such as coal, shipping and ports, and storage chips performing actively, while some concept stocks such as lithography machines and controllable nuclear fusion adjusted [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for propylene lacks support, and its upward movement is weak. Although the propylene price has stopped falling after reaching a low level, the supply - demand relationship remains weak, and the cost - side guidance is not strong, so the price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions on the propane supply on the cost side [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6106 yuan/ton (+27), the spot price in East China is 6190 yuan/ton (-25), and in North China is 6215 yuan/ton (-45). The basis in East China is 84 yuan/ton (-52), and in North China is 109 yuan/ton (-72). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 226 US dollars/ton (+4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 132 US dollars/ton (-11), the import profit is - 400 yuan/ton (-6), and the in - plant inventory is 43390 tons (-1520) [1] - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 39% (-1.03%), and the production profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 68% (-4%), and the production profit is - 51 yuan/ton (-33); the operating rate of n - butanol is 90% (+2%), and the production profit is 85 yuan/ton (+28); the operating rate of octanol is 92% (-4%), and the production profit is 103 yuan/ton (+32); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 75% (-8%), and the production profit is 1205 yuan/ton (+18); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is - 673 yuan/ton (+47); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 78% (+0%), and the production profit is - 526 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton PDH unit of Bohai Petrochemical and the 650,000 - ton cracking unit of Yulong Petrochemical have stopped, while the 450,000 - ton PDH unit of Tianhong has restarted, and the PDH unit of Haiwei has the expectation of restarting. Coupled with the resumption of production of some major manufacturers in Shandong before the festival, the restart of PDH continues to suppress the propylene supply side [2] - Demand side: When the propylene price drops to a phased low, downstream buyers start to purchase at low prices, but the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the demand lacks continuous support. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. For propylene oxide, Lihuayi and Jinling have stopped for maintenance, and the PO unit of Hangjin Technology has a shutdown plan, resulting in a decline in the PO operating rate. The demand on the PP side is also difficult to improve, and the operating rate of PP powder has declined slightly. The operating rate of acrylic acid has declined significantly [2] - Cost side: International oil prices continue to decline under pressure due to weak demand and tariff disturbances. The price of external propane has rebounded slightly but is still weak. The cost side of propylene continues to drag down the propylene market [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Sell high and buy back for the PL01 - 02 spread - Inter - variety: None [3] 3.4 Catalog - related Charts - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes charts of the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11] - **Propylene production profit and operating rate**: Includes charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][23] - **Propylene import and export profit**: Includes charts of the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] - **Propylene downstream profit and operating rate**: Includes charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [62]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-17 受板块带动，价格探底后略有反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2025-10-16日沪镍主力合约2511开于120950元/吨，收于121270元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.21%，当日成交量为 67146（-16615）手，持仓量为66228（-2453）手。 期货方面：今日沪镍主力合约小幅低开，盘中价格探底后略有回升，最后小幅收涨。昨日整体有色板块在10月美 联储降息预期下多有小幅回升，沪镍走势与板块走势相符。 镍矿方面：根据Mysteel消息，昨日镍矿市场维持观望，镍矿价格维稳运行。海运费方面受用船需求减少，近期海 运费有所回落。菲律宾方面三描礼士Eramen矿山1.4%镍矿招标落地FOB43.5。下游铁厂利润受挫，对原料镍矿采 购延续谨慎。国内北方部分工厂已开始"冬储"原料准备。印尼方面，镍矿市场供应持续宽松格局。10月(二期)内贸 基准价预计上涨0.06-0.11美元，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26。。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格123400元/吨，较上一个交易日持平。现货基本持稳，各品牌现货升贴水未 有波动。其中金川镍升水变化50元/吨至2450 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have been weak recently due to looser fundamentals and potential tariff frictions, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil itself have a mix of long and short factors, with limited market drivers. High-sulfur fuel oil's supply from Iran and Russia is affected by sanctions and drone attacks, and after the end of the Middle East demand peak season, fuel oil exports have room for further growth. Low-sulfur fuel oil's current fundamentals and market structure are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, with increased supply from Africa, South America, etc., and potential risks in shipping and marine fuel demand. The pressure on the low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.82%, at 2,672 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.55%, at 3,114 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Cross-variety: No strategy [3] - Cross-period: No strategy [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3] Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near-month contracts, near-month spreads, as well as fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures' main contract closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract prices, near-month spreads, and trading volume and open interest [4]

航运日报 | 2025-10-17 关注11月份涨价函实际落地价格，10月底或有部分船司宣涨 11月下半月 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹43周报价1100/1840，44周报价1194/2010；HPL -SPOT 10月下半月价格 1185/1935；11月上半月价格1535/2535，11月下半月船期报价1735/2835。HPL发布最新涨价函，10月15日之后运价 涨至1200/2000；马士基发布11月份涨价函，11月3日之后价格涨至1625/2500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月下半月价格涨至1245/2065,11月上半月船期报价1545/2565；ONE 10月下半月价 格 1175/1835 ； HMM 上 海 - 鹿特丹 10 月 下 半 月 价 格 1118/1806; YML 10/26-10/31 报 价 FE3/FE4/FE5/FE6: USD925/1550/1550FP22528BD:USD875/1450/1450。MSC发布11/1-11/15日涨价函 1620/2700。 Ocean All ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Overall, copper prices strengthened during the National Day holiday due to factors such as the restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and frequent mine - end disturbances. However, the continuous processing fee of - 40 dollars/ton reflects the tightening of mine - end resources, so the short - term rise in copper prices caused by mine - end disturbances may not be sustainable. When the trade dispute between China and the US intensified last Friday, copper prices fell. But low processing fees and the Fed's interest - rate cuts limit the downside of copper prices. It is recommended to buy copper on dips for hedging, with the buying range at 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 16, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 85,240 yuan/ton and closed at 85,050 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 84,530 yuan/ton and closed at 85,140 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at par to a premium of 120 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 60 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day. The copper price was 84,900 - 85,450 yuan/ton. The futures price first fell and then rose. The cross - month spread fluctuated between C50 and C20 yuan/ton, and the import loss narrowed to less than 1,000 yuan. The procurement and sales sentiment in the market rebounded. It is expected that downstream stocking willingness will be limited today, copper prices will fluctuate around 85,000 yuan, and spot trading volume may be similar to today [2] Important Information Summary - Interest rates: There is a divergence within the Fed on the interest - rate cut path. Governor Waller advocates a cautious 25 - basis - point cut per time, while Acting Governor Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 - basis - point cut. The core of the divergence lies in the speed of policy adjustment [3] - Geopolitics: Trump said he had a phone call with Russian President Putin, is committed to resolving the Ukraine conflict, and will meet with Putin in Budapest to discuss ending the conflict. They also discussed post - conflict trade between Russia and the US [3] Mine End - BHP is considering reopening four long - closed copper mines in Arizona. The potential restart plan will focus on the Globe–Miami area, and it also plans to reprocess the tailings of closed operations. The most important copper project in the state, the Resolution copper project, is still waiting for court rulings and final permits. Once operational, it can produce up to 1 billion pounds (about 453,000 tons) of copper per year [4] Smelting and Import - Japan, Spain, and South Korea are deeply concerned about the sharp decline in copper smelting processing fees and refining fees (TC/RCs). The current market environment hinders the sustainable development of the copper smelting and mining industries. Some companies are considering scaling back or exiting copper concentrate smelting operations, and they hope TC/RCs can return to a sustainable level [4] Consumption - In September 2025, China's non - ferrous metal industry prosperity index was 30.4, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, remaining in the lower - middle part of the "normal" range. The leading index was 70.4, up 0.4 percentage points, and the coincident index was 69.7, down 2.1 percentage points. In September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, up 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year. From January to September, new energy vehicle production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, up 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 450 tons to 137,450 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 125 tons to 44,406 tons. On October 17, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 177,500 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range at 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [7]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-17 社会库存小幅下滑 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为139.83美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-90元/吨至21920元/吨，SMM上海 锌现货升贴水-40元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-110元/吨至21890元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-100元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-110元/吨至21930元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-30元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-16沪锌主力合约开于22065元/吨，收于21940元/吨，较前一交易日-55元/吨，全天交易日成交91938 手，全天交易日持仓87075手，日内价格最高点达到22085元/吨，最低点达到21880元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-10-16，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.27万吨，较上期变化-0.03万吨。截止2025-10-16，LME 锌库存为38300吨，较上一交易日变化-50吨。 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库 ...