Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. The asphalt spot prices in Shandong and East China continued to decline, and those in other regions remained stable. Due to the weak fundamentals of crude oil, the upward momentum is insufficient, and the cost - side support for asphalt is limited. With the increase in refinery operating rates, the supply is abundant, while the demand side lacks positive stimuli. Typhoon weather in the southern region has temporarily hindered project construction, and the terminal demand remains weak. The spot market is filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and traders and end - users mainly purchase cautiously. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 24th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3392 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 216,897 lots, a decrease of 14,925 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 152,942 lots, a decrease of 29,145 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3756 - 4086 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3450 - 3720 yuan/ton; South China: 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton; East China: 3510 - 3600 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile. - Inter - delivery spread: Short the spread of BU2511 - 2512 (reverse spread). - Inter - commodity spread: None. - Futures - cash: None. - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP are rated neutral; L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 are recommended for reverse spreads; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3] Core View - For PE, the supply side has seen a more - than - expected return due to the restart of many previously shut - down plants. The demand side has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but the demand follow - up is slow. The cost side is supported by rising international oil prices, yet the PE trend is still suppressed by the supply side [2] - For PP, the supply pressure remains high despite the decline in overall PP start - up rate. The demand side is in a seasonally improving period, but the recovery is slow. The cost side has a slight rebound in international oil prices. In the short term, PP demand improves but is limited by supply, and low profits restrict its downside [2] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton (+37); PP main contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton (+35). LL North China spot was 7,080 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot was 7,110 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,730 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 62 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis was - 32 yuan/ton (-37), PP East China basis was - 147 yuan/ton (-35) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE start - up rate was 80.4% (+2.3%), PP start - up rate was 74.9% (-1.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 177.5 yuan/ton (-139.0), PP oil - based production profit was - 442.5 yuan/ton (-139.0), PDH - based PP production profit was - 267.8 yuan/ton (-8.2) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 148.9 yuan/ton (-57.6), PP import profit was - 528.9 yuan/ton (+2.4), PP export profit was 34.9 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate was 26.8% (+2.6%), PE downstream packaging film start - up rate was 51.8% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate was 43.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate was 61.4% (-0.1%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side has more plants restarting than planned to shut down; demand side has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking but slow follow - up; cost side is supported by rising oil prices, yet the trend is suppressed by supply [2] - **PP**: Supply side has increased supply pressure despite more plants likely to restart; demand side is in a seasonally improving period but with slow recovery; cost side has a slight rebound in oil prices and strong propane. Short - term demand improves but is limited by supply, and low profits restrict downside [2] Strategy - **Single - sided**: L, PP are neutral [3] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [3] - **Cross - variety**: No recommendation [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The demand for peanuts is weak, and prices are continuously fluctuating. The new - season soybeans in major producing areas are gradually coming onto the market, with overall good supply and price pressure [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary of Soybean - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3907.00 yuan/ton, a change of +29.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.75%. In the spot market, the basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 313, a change of - 29 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually coming onto the market, with the purchase price of raw grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact this year, the protein content has declined, and the prices of high - protein sources are firm. In the south, Jiangsu large - white - skinned soybeans have recently come onto the market, with raw grain prices of 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin and clean grain prices of 3 - 3.15 yuan/jin. Yesterday, the soybean futures price fluctuated. The purchase price in the Northeast is weak, while the price in the South is stable. Overall supply is good, and prices are under pressure [1][2] Group 4: Summary of Peanut - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7762.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.08%. In the spot market, the average peanut price was 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The basis was PK11 + 438.00, a change of +6.00 from the previous day, an increase of +1.39% [3] - The average price of national peanut general rice is 4.22 yuan/jin, basically stable. Shandong oil mills' contract purchase price for general rice is 8400 yuan/ton, and Henan oil mills' is 7800 yuan/ton. New peanut - producing areas are increasing, but the overall supply is still small. With the approaching of the Double Festival, downstream stocking demand is still weak, and oil mills' contract purchase prices are stable with limited purchases [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For pure benzene, the domestic focus is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking 2. The operation of domestic existing plants has slightly declined, the import arrival rhythm has slowed down, and downstream pre - holiday提货 procurement and stocking are fair. The destocking rate of port inventory has increased, and the pure benzene basis has continued to strengthen. The downstream operation of pure benzene has rebounded from the bottom, but the overall operation is still low, and the long - term procurement sustainability of the downstream is questionable [3]. - For styrene, the downstream提货 volume has declined during the peak season, EB arrivals are concentrated, and port inventory has accumulated again. The absolute level of port inventory is still high, and the EB basis is weak. The operation of EB gradually rebounds in late September. Among the EB downstream, the operation of ABS and PS has slightly declined, the operation of EPS before the National Day is fair, and the ABS inventory pressure is large. Overseas, the operation of EB in Europe and the United States is still low, but the price difference of EB in Europe and the United States to China has continued to weaken, and the paper - cargo locked import window of EB has opened [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - The data of pure benzene's basis and inter - period spread, including the main basis of pure benzene, the basis of the main contract of pure benzene, the spot - M2 paper - cargo spread of pure benzene, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of pure benzene are presented [8][12]. - The data of EB's basis and inter - period spread, including the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of styrene are presented [15][16]. II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Price Differences of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The production profit and price difference data of pure benzene and styrene are provided, such as naphtha processing fee, the difference between FOB Korea price of pure benzene and CFR Japan price of naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, and the price differences between different regions of pure benzene and styrene [19][22][26]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The inventory and operating rate data of pure benzene and styrene are given. Pure benzene's East China port inventory is 10.70 tons (- 2.70 tons), and its operating rate has relevant changes. Styrene's East China port inventory is 186,500 tons (+ 27,500 tons), its East China commercial inventory is 98,500 tons (+ 20,500 tons), and its operating rate is 73.4% (- 1.5%) [1][35][38]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - The operating rates and production profits of styrene's downstream products are shown. EPS production profit is 194 yuan/ton (- 54 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 76 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 23 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 61.74% (+ 0.72%), PS operating rate is 61.20% (- 0.70%), and ABS operating rate is 69.80% (- 0.20%) [2][45]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - The operating rates and production profits of pure benzene's downstream products are presented. For example, the production profit of caprolactam is - 1995 yuan/ton (- 105), the production profit of phenol - acetone is - 196 yuan/ton (+ 0), the production profit of aniline is 62 yuan/ton (+ 91), and the production profit of adipic acid is - 1356 yuan/ton (- 50). The operating rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid also have corresponding changes [1][53][60]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - hedge BZ and EB at high prices [4]. - Basis and inter - period: No relevant strategies [4]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategies [4].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-25 宏观预期好转，价格宽幅震荡 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：国内钢材市场涨跌互现，午后受螺纹钢期货上涨带动，现货市场成交放量，全天成交较上一交易日 有所好转。螺纹钢主力合约收于3164元/吨；热卷主力合约收于3357元/吨。现货方面，钢材现货成交整体一般，全 国建材成交103859吨，成交量表现相对昨日小幅增加。 供需与逻辑：昨日全国各区域建筑钢材成交量有所好转。期货螺纹钢震荡偏强，现货表现坚挺，节前下游需求存 在补库需求，商家惜售意愿偏强，随着"反内卷"相关政策逐步兑现，追涨情绪回落，短期市场交易主线可能重回 供需基本面，短期建筑钢材价格进入宽幅区间震荡阶段，后续关注旺季需求表现。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 策略 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水维持高位，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走弱。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于803.5元/吨。现货方面，唐 山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳，贸 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral; No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The PG futures market has shown a volatile downward trend, reflecting that the pattern of loose fundamentals has not reversed, and market expectations are weak. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, with only slight declines in the Northeast and Yangtze River regions. Due to abundant overseas supply and limited growth in domestic chemical demand, the market lacks continuous positive stimuli and faces significant upward resistance. After continuous corrections, the LPG basis has strengthened again, and the futures price is relatively low, so the downside space is expected to be limited [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On September 24, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4510 - 4570 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4000 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4400 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4460 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4750 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 601 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton) and 588 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4703 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton) and 4601 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 594 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton) and 581 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4648 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton) and 4546 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] Group 4: Figures - Figures include those related to spot prices of civil LPG and ether - after carbon four in various regions, as well as closing prices, spreads, and trading volumes of PG futures contracts [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. The valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, and both supply and demand are expected to decline in the fourth quarter. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy polysilicon futures at low prices [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures Price**: On September 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8950 yuan/ton and closed at 9020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.84% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 270931 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49925 lots, a decrease of 38 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were relatively stable. As of September 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10900 - 11200 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand - based procurement rhythm. Although monomer factories had a stronger willingness to hold prices, price increases were restricted, and the demand was affected by the approaching National Day holiday [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, and buy - hedging on dips. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - delivery, cross - product, spot - futures, or options [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures Price**: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50300 yuan/ton and closed at 51380 yuan/ton, a 2.41% change from the previous trading day. The position was 111187 lots, and the trading volume was 242016 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 50.00 - 55.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 0.50% to 31000 tons, and the output of silicon wafers increased by 0.29% to 13.92GW [2][4]. - **Enterprise Event**: Oriental Hope's Xinjiang polysilicon project will conduct annual maintenance on its three - phase production lines with capacities of 60,000 tons, 60,000 tons, and 90,000 tons respectively. This maintenance is expected to improve product quality and production stability, and it will not have a significant impact on the overall supply [5]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - delivery, cross - product, spot - futures, or options [6].

油脂日报 | 2025-09-25 中国自阿根廷大豆买船增多，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9126.00元/吨，环比变化+72元，幅度+0.80%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8100.00 元/吨，环比变化+14.00元，幅度+0.17%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9921.00元/吨，环比变化-75.00元，幅度-0.75%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8970.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.24%，现货基差P01+-156.00，环比 变化+38.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8280.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.73%，现货基差Y01+180.00， 环比变化+46.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10140.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.78%，现货基差 OI01+219.00，环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，9月24日（周三），CIMB Securities指出，欧盟决定将反森林砍伐法规推迟一年实 施，为棕榈油出口商提供了暂时喘息之机。这项被称为欧盟零毁林法案（EUDR）的立法延期， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; for cross - period, after maintenance returns, focus on PL01 - 02 short - spread trading opportunities at high levels; no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of propylene remains relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and the increase in new production capacity. The demand is supported at the bottom in the short term but is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost side has support due to geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of international oil prices and external propane prices [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong market prices [6][8][10] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It shows data on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][25][30] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes data on the price differences between South Korea's FOB, Japan's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, as well as propylene import profit [34][38] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [41][43][46][55][57][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - It shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

Report Investment Ratings - The overall strategy for the cotton, sugar, and pulp markets is neutral [2][6][8] Core Views - Cotton: New cotton has support before large - scale listing, but pressure will be released during the centralized listing period. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Affected by raw sugar, it may fall below the key support level, but there is cost support. In the medium - term, it should be treated with a bearish view [6] - Pulp: The fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,062 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from last year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5044 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the export sales progress is slow [1] - Domestic: The cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the commercial inventory is at a low level, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure is large during the new - flower listing period [1] Sugar - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The production increase expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains, suppressing the raw sugar price [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic production and sales in August were not good, the import volume reached a new high, and the supply is sufficient in the short - term [4] Pulp - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: The consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also soft, which suppresses the pulp price [7]