Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall volatility of the non - ferrous sector has led to a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The terminal demand for electric vehicle and automotive batteries remains weak, with slow inventory digestion by dealers, resulting in insufficient new orders for production enterprises. Some manufacturers choose to temporarily halt or reduce production to relieve inventory pressure. The upcoming 15% - 20% new tariff policy in the US poses greater challenges to the industry's exports [1][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.62 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to -20.00 yuan per ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton, SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -75 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,275 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste white shells and black shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan per ton and 10,575 yuan per ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,055 yuan per ton and closed at 17,085 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,556 lots, a decrease of 20,905 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 52,444 lots, a decrease of 1,035 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,130 yuan per ton and a low of 17,020 yuan per ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,060 yuan per ton and closed at 17,035 yuan per ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and there was more queuing for pick - up due to reduced supply from smelters. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 10 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and small factories' lead could be quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton. In Jiangxi, smelters' inventory decreased, and quotes were firm, at a premium of 120 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead price. The spot market trading was weaker in the south and stronger in the north [2] Inventory - On July 14, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous week. As of July 14, the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy is cautiously bullish. The starting - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces dropped to 70.76% in the first week of July, a 1.07 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The option strategy is to sell put options [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump used high - tariff threats last week but signaled negotiation on Monday, showing tariffs as a negotiation strategy, and the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher [3] - China's June financial data shows that the social financing scale and RMB loans have improved year - on - year, and the import and export data shows signs of stabilization, indicating overall economic development [3] - The A - share market showed a shrinking trading volume, with the market transitioning from large - financial stocks to resource stocks. The adjustment of the banking sector drove up the individual - stock profit - making effect, but short - term chasing risks should be watched out for [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic Financial Data**: In the first half of this year, China's social financing scale increment was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. At the end of June, the M2 balance increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - **Domestic Trade Data**: In the first half of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 21.79 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports by 2.3% [1] - **Overseas Trade News**: Trump said the US will negotiate on tariffs with other countries and is open to trade negotiations with Europe. The EU will also discuss trade issues with the US, and the US has reached some trade agreements [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. Most sector indexes rose, with machinery, public utilities, and household appliances leading the gains, and real estate, media, and non - bank finance sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell slightly below 1.5 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.27% to 20640.33 points [2] - **Futures Market Situation**: In the futures market, the current - month contract will be delivered this Friday, and the basis is converging. The trading volume and open interest of index futures decreased simultaneously [2] 2. Strategy - Trump's tariff strategy and the positive domestic economic data led to a slightly higher close of US stocks and a shrinking - volume A - share market. The market transitioned, and short - term chasing risks should be noted [3] 3. Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10684.52 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.45% to 2197.07 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.07% to 4017.67 points, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.00% to 2757.81 points, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.10% to 6020.86 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.02% to 6462.31 points [13] - Other charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][14] 5. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures decreased. For example, the open interest of IF was 80048 (down 83463), and the trading volume was 263468 (down 19160) [6][18] - **Basis**: The basis of index futures showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 0.21 (up 12.61) [6][41] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of index futures also had various changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 14.60 (up 3.40) [6][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In early 2025, soda ash futures and spot prices rebounded slightly with commodities. However, due to increased soda ash production capacity, decreased float and photovoltaic glass production, and lower coal prices, the supply - demand situation worsened, and soda ash prices declined. The futures price of the main contract dropped nearly 30%, and the spot price fell 19%. Recently, driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the soda ash futures price rebounded about 8.5% from the low, but the spot price remained stable and weak [2][8]. - In the first half of 2025, although the soda ash industry added 2.4 million tons of new production capacity, due to poor profitability, some enterprises carried out early maintenance in February and May, resulting in a decline in the start - up rate and production. From January to June, the national soda ash production was 18.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. It is expected that the production from July to September will decline slightly but remain at a relatively high level, and may rebound in October, with an annual supply increase of about 1.1% [2]. - "Anti - involution" has become a policy and market focus. As the "anti - involution" measures in the photovoltaic industry are implemented, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has declined, restricting the demand for heavy soda ash. Considering the poor profitability of the glass industry, the production of float and photovoltaic glass may continue to decline in the second half of the year, dragging down the demand for heavy soda ash. The total demand for soda ash is expected to have a negative growth of 0.6% this year, mainly due to a year - on - year decrease of 8.7% in heavy soda ash demand, while light soda ash demand will increase by 7.3% [3][7]. - In the first half of this year, with the decline in domestic soda ash prices, exports were strong. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118.5%. It is expected that exports will remain high in the second half of 2025, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year, a significant year - on - year increase [7]. - In the first half of this year, the over - capacity problem of soda ash was more obvious, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory of soda ash production enterprises was at a historical high. Based on the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply - demand pattern will remain loose. After the summer maintenance, the inventory is expected to continue to rise, and the total inventory may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year, much higher than in previous years [7]. - The recommended strategy is to sell hedging at high prices [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Recent Soda Ash Price and Profit Situation - In early 2025, soda ash futures and spot prices rebounded slightly with commodities. Then, due to increased production capacity, decreased float and photovoltaic glass production, and lower coal prices, the price of soda ash futures contract 09 dropped from 1,640 yuan/ton to 1,147 yuan/ton, a decline of nearly 30%, and the mainstream average price of national heavy soda ash dropped from 1,600 yuan/ton to 1,300 yuan/ton, a decline of 19% [16]. - Recently, under the "anti - involution" policy, the price of photovoltaic silicon materials increased significantly, and the soda ash futures price rebounded from 1,147 yuan/ton to 1,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5%, but the spot price remained stable and weak [16]. - Since 2024, the profit of the soda ash industry has declined significantly. Recently, the profits of the co - production method and the ammonia - soda method have both been in the negative, with losses of - 114 yuan/ton and - 134 yuan/ton respectively [21]. 2. Limited Impact of Summer Maintenance, High - level Soda Ash Supply - In the first half of 2025, although 2.4 million tons of new soda ash production capacity was added, due to poor profitability, some enterprises carried out early maintenance in February and May, resulting in a decline in the start - up rate and production. From January to June, the national soda ash production was 18.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, including a 4.0% year - on - year decrease in heavy soda ash production and a 5% year - on - year increase in light soda ash production [26]. - July is the traditional high - temperature maintenance season for soda ash enterprises. Due to the exothermic reaction of soda ash production, high - temperature, and humid weather, enterprises usually conduct maintenance. It is expected that the scale of summer maintenance this year may be slightly smaller than in previous years, but if prices continue to fall, more enterprises may carry out centralized maintenance [33][37]. - Considering the impact of summer maintenance, the production from July to September will decline slightly but remain above 3.1 million tons on average, and is expected to be around 3.2 million tons in October, increasing the supply surplus. The annual supply is expected to increase by about 1.1%, or 400,000 tons [41]. 3. Negative Impact of Photovoltaic Supply - side on Consumption, Soda Ash Demand May Continue to Decline - "Anti - involution" has become a policy and market focus. The "anti - involution" work in key industries such as automobiles, steel, and photovoltaics has made positive progress. For example, domestic top ten photovoltaic glass manufacturers plan to cut production by 30% starting from July [43][45]. - From January to June 2025, the total daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass was 253,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%, and the corresponding consumption of heavy soda ash decreased by 11% year - on - year [47]. - Recently, the glass market has improved slightly, but the photovoltaic industry is still weak. The supply of photovoltaic glass has decreased due to kiln production cuts and cold repairs, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the inventory has increased. The price of Wuhu Xinyi photovoltaic glass has dropped to 18.5 yuan/square meter [51]. - In the first half of the year, the demand for light soda ash was relatively strong, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7% in apparent demand from January to June. Different downstream industries have different operating conditions, such as the 80% start - up rate of sodium silicate manufacturers and the 88.6% start - up rate of the monosodium glutamate industry [53]. - For the second half of the year, considering the poor profitability of float and photovoltaic glass enterprises, the number of new and restarted production lines is expected to be limited, and the probability of cold - repair production lines is higher, which may further reduce the demand for heavy soda ash [54]. 4. Decline in Domestic Soda Ash Price, High - level Soda Ash Exports - In the first half of 2025, with the decline in domestic soda ash prices, exports were strong. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118.5%. It is expected that exports will remain high in the second half of the year, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year, a significant year - on - year increase [63]. 5. Soda Ash Total Inventory Expected to Continue Rising in the Second Half of the Year - In the first half of 2025, the over - capacity problem of soda ash was more obvious, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory of soda ash production enterprises was at a historical high. The latest inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.863 million tons, the inventory of sample glass factories was equivalent to 23.4 days of use, and the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses was 238,000 tons. The total inventory of the three links reached 2.805 million tons, at an absolute high level compared with the same period [66]. - Based on the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash will remain loose. After the summer maintenance, the inventory is expected to continue to rise, and may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year, much higher than in previous years [69]. 6. Summary - Price and profit: Similar to the previous analysis, the price of soda ash futures dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped relatively less. Recently, the futures price rebounded under the "anti - involution" policy, but the spot price remained stable and weak [72]. - Supply: In the first half of the year, new production capacity was added, but early maintenance led to a decline in production. Summer maintenance may have a limited impact, and the annual supply is expected to increase by about 1.1% [72]. - Demand: "Anti - involution" has affected the demand for heavy soda ash. Considering the poor profitability of the glass industry, the demand for heavy soda ash may continue to decline in the second half of the year. The total demand for soda ash is expected to have a negative growth of 0.6% this year, mainly due to the decline in heavy soda ash demand [73]. - Net export: Exports were strong in the first half of the year and are expected to remain high in the second half, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year [74]. - Inventory: The over - capacity problem was obvious in the first half of the year, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year, and may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year [74]. - Strategy: Sell hedging at high prices [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) data for various stock index options on July 11, 2025. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Option Trading Volume - On July 11, 2025, the trading volumes of various stock index options were as follows: 2.8049 million contracts for SSE 50 ETF options; 2.4201 million contracts for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market); 2.1626 million contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market); 0.1171 million contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options; 1.9109 million contracts for ChiNext ETF options; 0.0947 million contracts for SSE 50 stock index options; 0.1967 million contracts for CSI 300 stock index options; and 0.3324 million contracts for CSI 1000 options [1][21]. II. Option PCR - The PCR data of various stock index options on July 11, 2025, are as follows: - SSE 50 ETF options: turnover PCR was 0.45 (a decrease of 0.09 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.22 (an increase of 0.04 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market): turnover PCR was 0.37 (a decrease of 0.09 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.02 (an increase of 0.06 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market): turnover PCR was 0.47 (a decrease of 0.14 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.24 (an increase of 0.02 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: turnover PCR was 0.42 (a decrease of 0.05 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 0.90 (a decrease of 0.12 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - ChiNext ETF options: turnover PCR was 0.44 (a decrease of 0.17 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.07 (an increase of 0.06 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - SSE 50 stock index options: turnover PCR was 0.26 (a decrease of 0.13 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 0.63 (an increase of 0.03 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - CSI 300 stock index options: turnover PCR was 0.30 (a decrease of 0.05 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 0.75 (an increase of 0.02 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - CSI 1000 stock index options: turnover PCR was 0.42 (a decrease of 0.20 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.05 (an increase of 0.02 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. III. Option VIX - The VIX data of various stock index options on July 11, 2025, are as follows: - SSE 50 ETF options: VIX was 16.15% (an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market): VIX was 16.52% (an increase of 0.77% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market): VIX was 20.65% (an increase of 0.36% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: VIX was 19.11% (an increase of 0.52% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - ChiNext ETF options: VIX was 24.19% (a decrease of 0.17% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - SSE 50 stock index options: VIX was 17.79% (an increase of 0.85% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - CSI 300 stock index options: VIX was 17.82% (an increase of 0.88% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - CSI 1000 stock index options: VIX was 21.57% (a decrease of 0.21% compared to the previous period) [3][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils fluctuated and declined. Palm oil had the largest decline among the three major oils due to factors such as OPEC+ members agreeing to increase production, the negative impact of US tariff policies on the global economic outlook, and a bearish MPOB report. Soybean oil had a relatively small decline in the oils due to the impact of US tariff policies on increasing the cost of domestic soybean imports. In the future, as a large number of soybeans arrive at ports and the oil mill operating rate increases, the shortage of domestic soybean oil will soon be alleviated. Against the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil, the demand outlook for palm oil as biodiesel is limited. Coupled with the current entry into the production - increasing cycle, there is a need for the price difference between palm oil and soybean oil to return, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][10]. - For the feed sector, the USDA supply - demand report this month did not make major adjustments to South America. Brazil's bumper harvest pattern is set, and the large - scale arrival of soybeans starting from April will still bring certain supply pressure to the domestic market. However, the report significantly increased the domestic soybean crushing demand in the US, which also reflects that under the current tariff policy, the import volume of US oils may decline, which is beneficial to domestic soybean oil consumption in the US. The CBOT US soybean price also rebounded after a decline. Domestically, it is currently the window period for the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian premium has remained firm under the influence of tariff policies, which supports the import cost to a certain extent, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is still large, and the domestic downstream supply is not tight in the short term. Future policy changes and domestic soybean arrival situations need to be focused on [12]. - In the pig market, the supply side is expected to remain stable in the future, with no significant changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The consumption side shows weak growth in slaughter data and synchronous growth in frozen product inventory, with large resistance in white - striped pork sales and weak consumption. It is expected that the consumption side may decline slightly in the future. Overall, there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the pig market, and the price is expected to fluctuate steadily. As the delivery month approaches, the basis of near - month contracts may converge. At the current price, the probability of large - scale entry of secondary fattening is not high, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate [14]. - For the cotton market, the short - term risks of the cotton futures market have been cleared, but the macro uncertainty is still high, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Domestically, the short - term supply is still abundant, and the expected cotton - planting area in the new year is expected to increase steadily. The downstream performance is still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. Internationally, the April USDA report slightly increased the global cotton ending inventory, with a neutral - to - bearish overall adjustment. As the Northern Hemisphere enters the sowing season and the expectation of reduced planting in the new year of US cotton increases, attention has gradually shifted to the new - season supply, and the drought situation in the main US cotton - producing areas needs to be continuously monitored [16]. - Regarding the sugar market, short - term international sugar prices are still strongly supported, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, the sugar price may still be under pressure. The short - term focus is on the weather and the start of the crushing season in Brazil, as well as the weather in Guangxi and the import rhythm in China [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Evaluation and Strategy - **Supply**: The weekly national oil mill imported soybean crushing volume was 1.0301 million tons, with a decrease in soybean crushing, and the imported rapeseed crushing was 70,000 tons, with a decrease in rapeseed crushing. The oil mill's expected operating rate this week was slightly reduced, and the crushing volume decreased. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of the oil mill was 1.0301 million tons, and the operating rate was 28.96%. The sample showed that the inventory of breeding sows in March was 5.0484 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.08%; the elimination volume of breeding sows in March was 97,826 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 35.4457 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.27%; the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in March was 10.3928 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 17.43%. According to the Cotton Information Network, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of March was 4.8396 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.24%, 19,800 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 0.41%. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had all stopped production. The total national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 10.7479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons, an increase of 12.27% [9][12][15]. - **Demand**: The weekly national spot trading volume of palm oil was 5,299 tons, soybean oil was 145,000 tons, and rapeseed oil pick - up was 8,300 tons. Palm oil and soybean oil increased, while rapeseed oil decreased. The national soybean meal trading volume this week was 1.3546 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 709,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 270,900 tons, an average daily month - on - month increase of 141,800 tons. This week, the slaughter data of pigs showed weak growth, and the frozen product inventory also increased synchronously. The downstream performance of the cotton market was still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. As of the end of March, the national cumulative sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.64%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.33 percentage points [9][12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port palm oil inventory increased to 373,400 tons, the oil mill soybean oil inventory decreased to 791,200 tons, and the coastal oil mill rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 127,000 tons. This week, the oil mill's inventory was 791,200 tons, a decrease of 47,900 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 31,300 tons, an increase from last week. This week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.38%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from last week. This week, the raw material inventory of yarn mills increased slightly, and the finished - product cotton yarn inventory increased slightly; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills decreased slightly, and the all - cotton grey fabric inventory continued to increase. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the national monthly industrial sugar inventory was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [9][12][15]. - **Basis**: The spot basis includes North China first - grade soybean oil Y05 + 324, East China fourth - grade rapeseed oil OI05 + 95, and South China 24 - degree palm oil P05 + 266. The spot basis of soybean meal in South China is M05 - 114, and that of rapeseed meal in Fujian is RM05 + 1. The spot basis of live pigs in Henan is LH05 + 455. As of this Friday, the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 424 yuan/ton. The spot basis is CF05 + 1405, a month - on - month increase of 276. The national weighted average spot price of cotton is 14,275 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 627 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is CF05 + 1465, a month - on - month increase of 73. As of this Friday, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 6,170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is SR05 + 84, a month - on - month increase of 13 [9][12][15]. - **Profit**: This week, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil for April shipments was - 699 yuan/ton. This week, the on - paper gross profit of Brazilian soybeans for May shipments was 265 (with a premium of 175), and the on - paper crushing gross profit of Canadian rapeseed for May shipments was 284. As of April 10, the self - breeding and self - raising profit this week was 129.30 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan/head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 65.80 yuan/head, a loss of 39.06 yuan/head compared with last week. As of April 10, the national immediate spinning profit of 32s pure - cotton ring - spun yarn was - 297.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 723.1 yuan/ton from last week. On April 11, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,665 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 294 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,782 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 450 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. - **Cost**: According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, it is estimated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 to 10 was 211,252 tons, a decrease of 6.63% compared with the export volume of 226,247 tons in the same period last month. The MPOB data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.31 million tons; the palm oil import was 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; the palm oil export was 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 1.02 million tons; the palm oil inventory was 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.56 million tons. This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated steadily. As of April 10, the closing price of US soybeans was 1,035.50 cents per bushel. As of April 10, the average cost of secondary fattening this week was 14.40 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week; the pig - to - grain ratio was 6.46:1. The Cotlook:A index: 1% tariff price was reported at 13,825 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index: 328 was reported at 14,275 yuan/ton, with an internal - external cotton price difference of 450 yuan/ton. On April 11, the processed cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar (with a premium of 0.69) in China was about 4,884 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,255 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the processed cost of imported Thai raw sugar (with a premium of 0.88) was about 4,765 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,099 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. 3.2 Oilseeds Sector Supply and Demand - **Palm Oil**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of palm oil, as well as the supply and demand data of GAPKI and MPOB palm oil, and the direct import volume of China's three major oils, domestic oil mill crushing, production, and inventory [23][56][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of soybean oil [37][41]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Analyzed the basis, spread, import cost, and profit of rapeseed oil, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in Guangdong [47][53]. 3.3 Feed Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, price difference, and profit of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the import volume of oilseeds and meal, domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal production, and inventory [72][88][91]. 3.4 Pig Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, monthly supply and demand, weekly profit, and weekly pig - to - grain ratio of live pigs [100][107][110]. 3.5 Cotton Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, supply and demand (including import volume, industrial inventory, commercial inventory, factory load, inventory, and retail and export data), and global and regional supply and demand of cotton [122][129][151]. 3.6 Sugar Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the price, basis, and supply and demand (including domestic and international production, inventory, import, and export data) of sugar [161][167][169].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting a definite expectation of loose short - term liquidity. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, supported by a weak economic fundamentals and loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose funding and supply disturbances, but the market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations. Future policy stances and external disturbances will dominate the market direction [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1791, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 (-0.04%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.68%); DR007 is 1.49, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.21%); R007 is 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.60%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-0.60%) [8] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple graphs related to the treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts, the price change rates of each variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds at each term, the valuation change of treasury bonds at each term in the past day, the precipitation of funds in each variety of treasury bond futures, the proportion of open interest in each variety, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 in each variety, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 in each variety, the trading - to - open - interest ratio of each variety, the bond lending turnover and the total open interest of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][12][14][17][20][23][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The report shows graphs of the interest rate corridor, the central bank's open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [30][32][35] 4. Spread Overview - The report includes graphs of the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread for different combinations [39][41][42] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides graphs of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [44][46][52] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers graphs of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents graphs of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows graphs of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuating price of treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [3] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the liquidity situation of various market sectors on July 10, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, and trading volume of each plate, providing a comprehensive view of plate liquidity [1][2][5] 2. Stock Index Plate - On July 10, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 458.41 billion yuan, a +9.52% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1069.218 billion yuan, a +4.66% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.20% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On July 10, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 398.037 billion yuan, a +35.26% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 917.331 billion yuan, a +0.37% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.80% [1] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On July 10, 2025, the base metals plate had a trading volume of 539.692 billion yuan, a +9.06% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 497.066 billion yuan, a - 0.07% change; the trading - holding ratio was 142.24%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 297.7 billion yuan, a - 35.39% change; the holding amount was 421.974 billion yuan, a - 0.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 75.80% [1] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - On July 10, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 556.985 billion yuan, a +27.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 434.905 billion yuan, a - 0.16% change; the trading - holding ratio was 110.38% [1] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - On July 10, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 296.017 billion yuan, a +15.77% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 571.605 billion yuan, a +0.26% change; the trading - holding ratio was 45.71% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On July 10, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 335.237 billion yuan, a +71.83% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 371.906 billion yuan, a +1.76% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.84% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory and relatively insignificant market contradictions. Terminal demand lacks highlights, and downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand. Attention should be paid to the seasonal consumption improvement after the reduction of rainy weather. The short - term price of asphalt is affected by the strong trend of crude oil prices, but the medium - term upward space and driving force of crude oil are limited due to the expected loosening of the balance sheet [1] - The trading strategy for asphalt is a unilateral shock, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - On July 10, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,629 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 226,788 lots, a net increase of 3,805 lots, and the trading volume was 125,635 lots, a decrease of 31,302 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,630 - 4,070 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,600 - 3,700 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,700 - 3,850 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in Shandong and North China markets declined slightly yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Volatility - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Group 5: Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China), the closing prices of petroleum asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the price difference of near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of single - side and main contracts of petroleum asphalt futures, the weekly production of domestic asphalt, the production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventory (Longzhong caliber) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro - level positive factors continue to boost market sentiment, and the rising upstream coal prices lead to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures market. However, the fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly. Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, causing international oil and propane prices to decline. The production profit of PDH - made PP turns from loss to profit, and the cost - side support weakens. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film start - up rate rising from the bottom and the plastic weaving start - up rate falling, while other downstream start - up rates remain stable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7329 yuan/ton (+51), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+34). The LL spot price in North China is 7220 yuan/ton (+40), the LL spot price in East China is 7270 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 7130 yuan/ton (+10). The LL basis in North China is - 109 yuan/ton (-11), the LL basis in East China is - 59 yuan/ton (-51), and the PP basis in East China is 18 yuan/ton (-24) [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The PE start - up rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and the PP start - up rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). The PE oil - based production profit is 87.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), the PP oil - based production profit is - 302.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), and the PDH - made PP production profit is 194.2 yuan/ton (-56.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 144.9 yuan/ton (-5.4), the PP import profit is - 640.5 yuan/ton (-5.7), and the PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 42.2% (-1.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory [2]