Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory with a Weakening Tendency [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - The resumption of production and restocking support the upward oscillation of coking coal and coke; the speculative demand for glass and soda ash increases, leading to oscillatory movements [1] - Market sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, with alloy prices rising slightly [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated yesterday, with the spot price slightly adjusted by some manufacturers. The supply - demand contradiction has eased due to production line cold - repairs and increased consumer and speculative demand. The progress of cold - repairs and the sustainability of speculative demand should be monitored [1] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated and ended up rising. Short - term inventory reduction eases supply pressure, but long - term supply pressure remains due to increasing production capacity and limited demand from cold - repaired float glass production lines. Speculative demand provides short - term price support [1] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Silicomanganese**: Geopolitical instability and coal news have boosted market sentiment, driving up alloy futures prices. The fundamentals have improved, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill复产 and winter storage. Manganese ore prices support the silicomanganese price [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures perform well. The spot market is stable with strong cautious sentiment. Fundamentals are controllable, but inventory has increased due to slowed downstream procurement. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill复产 and winter storage. The impact of differential electricity price policies is limited [3] Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillatory [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillatory with a weakening tendency [2] - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillatory [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillatory [4] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, while the price of thermal coal shows a mixed trend with uncertain demand [1][3][5][8] - The supply and demand patterns of different black building materials vary, and factors such as production resumption, winter storage, and raw material replenishment have an impact on prices [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3165 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3311 yuan/ton. The inventory of construction steel decreased by 1.74% month - on - month, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.98% month - on - month. The spot trading of steel was average, and the price followed the futures price [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The fundamentals of building materials have weakened slightly, with rapid production resumption of steel mills and delayed winter storage replenishment by downstream. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. Short - term prices depend on cost changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuated upward. The price of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 19.70% month - on - month, and the transaction volume of forward spot decreased by 52.15% month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 5.9% month - on - month [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is increasing. The actual fundamentals are better than the statistical data. High prices stimulate supply release. If negotiations are concluded, there will be a supply shock. Short - term prices will fluctuate due to production resumption and winter storage replenishment [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated upward. The price of coal for furnace use rose slightly, and coking profits improved. After New Year's Day, the blast furnaces of steel mills resumed production, and the rigid demand increased slightly. The supply in the production area increased steadily, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal recovered rapidly [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of coke is relatively balanced. With the production resumption of steel mills, the actual demand has improved, but the purchasing willingness in the trading link is still low. The raw material replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. The supply and demand of coking coal are both increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The price of coking coal has strong support below [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the price has been strong recently, but the downstream is resistant to high - priced coal, resulting in a mixed situation of price increases and decreases. At the port, the inventory has increased slightly, but it is still lower than last year. The import coal price has risen, but the price advantage of low - calorie Indonesian coal is weak [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The coal price has risen slightly, but the downstream demand has not met expectations. The future temperature is expected to rise, and there are differences in views. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern and non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading volume, PCR, and VIX data of various index options on January 9, 2026, offering an overview of the index option market [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On January 9, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 794,900 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 921,400 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,569,000 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 51,700 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,813,500 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 62,300 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 152,300 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 522,900 contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.52, with a month - on - month change of - 0.19; the position PCR was 0.97, with a month - on - month change of + 0.02 - The turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 0.72, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08; the position PCR was 1.06, with a month - on - month change of + 0.06 - The turnover PCR of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 0.35, with a month - on - month change of - 0.14; the position PCR was 1.40, with a month - on - month change of + 0.03 - The turnover PCR of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was reported at 0.45, with a month - on - month change of - 0.23; the position PCR was 1.37, with a month - on - month change of + 0.13 - The turnover PCR of ChiNext ETF options was reported at 0.49, with a month - on - month change of - 0.15; the position PCR was 1.10, with a month - on - month change of + 0.01 - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 index options was reported at 0.34, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; the position PCR was 0.70, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02 - The turnover PCR of CSI 300 index options was reported at 0.36, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06; the position PCR was 0.74, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01 - The turnover PCR of CSI 1000 index options was reported at 0.30, with a month - on - month change of - 0.11; the position PCR was 1.24, with a month - on - month change of + 0.08 [2] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 17.97%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.68% - The VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 18.93%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.86% - The VIX of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 24.47%, with a month - on - month change of + 1.56% - The VIX of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was reported at 21.88%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.31% - The VIX of ChiNext ETF options was reported at 28.20%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.15% - The VIX of SSE 50 index options was reported at 18.20%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.67% - The VIX of CSI 300 index options was reported at 18.73%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.65% - The VIX of CSI 1000 index options was reported at 22.89%, with a month - on - month change of + 1.59% [3]

锂电池出口退税调整对碳酸锂品种的影响 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 期货研究报告|新能源专题报告 2026-01-12 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 投资咨询号：Z0014660 从业资格号：F03149704 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 报告摘要 2026 年 1 月 8 日，国家财政部和税务总局公布了《财政部 税务总局关于调整光伏等产 品出口退税政策的公告》，其中提到自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电 池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产品增值 税出口退税。该政策是针对新能源行业"反内卷"的最新要求，再次强调了国家对锂电行 业未来发展的重视程度。本次分析将就退税调整政策及"反内卷"对锂电行业及碳酸锂品 种的影响进行探讨。 2025 年以后，我国锂电行业进入新的阶段，一方面国内企业市场占比不断提升，技术方 面全球领先，但另一方面国内企业竞争白热化，利润率不足，因此为了行业的长期 ...

流动性日报 | 2026-01-12 市场流动性概况 2026-01-09，股指板块成交9557.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+27.51%；持仓金额16490.87亿元，较上一交易日变动 +7.53%；成交持仓比为57.85%。 国债板块成交3452.52亿元，较上一交易日变动-14.21%；持仓金额7990.51亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.25%；成交持 仓比为43.35%。 基本金属板块成交12317.27亿元，较上一交易日变动-18.46%；持仓金额8037.35亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.10%； 成交持仓比为162.38%。 贵金属板块成交8943.58亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.44%；持仓金额5057.26亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.19%；成 交持仓比为256.04%。 能源化工板块成交5114.16亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.99%；持仓金额4626.39亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.74%；成 交持仓比为103.28%。 农产品板块成交2679.08亿元，较上一交易日变动-26.36%；持仓金额6028.74亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.98%；成 交持仓比为42.42%。 黑色建材板块成交 ...

期货研究报告|卫星农业专题 2026-01-11 卫星遥感监测报告及南美降水展望 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 内容摘要 本报告利用卫星遥感、气象数据和实地观测等多源数据，结合自有产量模型，对 2025 年 12 月巴西大豆、玉米、阿根廷大豆和马来印尼棕榈油进行监测，监测显示，此次拉 尼娜对南美影响有限，12 月整体长势指标维持在正常范围，1 月甚至突破历史新高， 根据自有产量模型测算，此次单产整体上修，巴西大豆单产预估为 3.61MT/HA，较 USDA 上月数据增长 0.02 MT/HA，此次上调后单产数据接近 2024/25 年度的 3.62 MT/HA，照此趋势今年单产有望突破去年，甚至创出历史新高。基于第一季玉米长势 状况（占比 27%左右），也上修玉米单产预估到 6.05 MT/HA。阿根廷整体状况也持续 向好，单产上修至 2.97 MT/HA，较上月 USDA 数据增长 0.03 MT/HA。根据预测数据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.0683 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.1011 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.6205 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 48,200 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1.4152 million contracts; SSE 50 index options was 46,800 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 151,200 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 356,600 contracts [1]. Option PCR - The SSE 50 ETF options' turnover PCR was reported at 0.71, with a month - on - month change of +0.17; the position PCR was reported at 0.96, with a month - on - month change of -0.06. Similar data was presented for other options, such as CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), etc. [2]. Option VIX - The SSE 50 ETF options' VIX was reported at 17.30%, with a month - on - month change of -0.58%. Other options also had their respective VIX values and month - on - month changes reported, like CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) and so on [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2603/2605 at low levels (positive spread trading) [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.04% at 2,458 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.14% at 2,929 yuan/ton [1] - The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has limited direct impact on the crude oil market but is bearish in the medium - to - long - term. Oil prices are in a weak oscillation, suppressing the unilateral prices of FU and LU [1] - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market have both bullish and bearish factors, with limited overall contradictions and regional differentiation. The spread between the East and West regions of high - sulfur fuel oil has widened recently [1] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, due to the shift of heavy oil resources from Asia to the US, the supply of residual oil in the US has increased, leading to a significant decline in the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in the US Gulf and a drop in the European crack spread. Meanwhile, the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has shown a slightly strong oscillation. In the future, the increase in the volume of shipments from the West to Asia may form an upward resistance to the Asian market pricing [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply recovery in Kuwait and Nigeria due to changes in the status of plant overhauls. However, the premium of gasoline and diesel will divert low - sulfur oil components through the RFCC unit, and the short - term market pressure is expected to be limited [1] Group 3: Figures and Data - The report includes figures on Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near - month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near - month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month contract price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month spread, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with policy expectations fluctuating, internal and external economic conditions diverging, and certain opportunities and risks in different sectors [2][3][4] - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as colored metals, precious metals, and consider potential investment opportunities through operations like buying on dips [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations are swinging. After a series of important domestic meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment, there are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad. The market sentiment and macro - situation are somewhat deviated. Attention should be paid to domestic policy introductions and Trump's Fed chair candidates. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year's holiday may drive up commodity prices [2] - On January 8, the A - share market was volatile, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 15 consecutive positive days. The margin trading balance of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, with a significant daily increase [2] Economic Data - Internationally, there is a divergence in economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. China's December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both returned to the expansion range, and foreign exchange reserves increased. The US manufacturing index declined slightly, and the service index reached a new high [3] - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than expected. The US Supreme Court will rule on tariff issues on January 9, and Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes [3][7] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, colored metals and precious metals with high certainty are still the focus. There are signs of price increases spreading from individual products to the whole market, and opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for losses should be noted. Among colored metals, aluminum is a preferred choice [4] - In the energy sector, geopolitical events during the holiday did not drive up oil prices. The key lies in the expected increase in crude oil supply after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela. OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol and PTA is worth attention. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored [4] - In the precious metals market, there are opportunities to buy on dips, but short - term silver risks have increased. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is undergoing a weight re - balancing, causing a liquidity shock [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and colored metals [5] Important News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly and achieved 15 consecutive positive days, while the ChiNext Index fell nearly 1%. About 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume was 2.82 trillion yuan [7] - Four ministries jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to regulate industry competition order, involving 16 enterprises and two industry associations [7] - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in December was lower than expected, and the service index reached a new high. Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes and hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [7] - The margin trading balance of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, with a significant daily increase [2][7] - In the commodity futures market, some products like polysilicon and container shipping on the European route fell, while others like coking coal and glass rose [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. The stock market drives the market, the Political Bureau Meeting releases a loose monetary signal, the LPR remains unchanged, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation continues while the uncertainty of global trade increases the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 0.70%; China's monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.20% [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.44%; Manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90% and a growth rate of 1.83% [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.86, with a day - on - day increase of 0.12 and a growth rate of 0.12%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9813, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 and a decline rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.83%; DR007 is 1.47, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.79%; R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.31%; The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.49%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.49% [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][15][18][21] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Multiple charts are provided, including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [28][33] IV. Spread Overview - Multiple charts are provided, showing the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][39] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided, including the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [41][46][50] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided, including the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [51][54] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided, including the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided, including the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [61][62] Strategy - Unilateral: Repurchase rates decline, and treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4] - Hedging: There is a medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]