Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The lithium carbonate futures market showed an increase in positions and prices, driven by inventory reduction and optimistic consumption expectations. However, with the potential resumption of mining production, attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mining resumes, inventory may shift from reduction to accumulation. Currently, the market is highly volatile, and the downstream's acceptance of spot prices is limited, so the risk of further chasing high prices is relatively large [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 93,800 yuan/ton and closed at 99,300 yuan/ton, with a 4.97% change in the closing price compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots, and the open interest was 503,132 lots, an increase from the previous trading day's 484,357 lots. The current basis was -10,880 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,766 lots, a change of 155 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,400 - 92,400 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 - 88,400 yuan/ton, a change of 1,450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,200 US dollars/ton, a change of 60 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The lithium carbonate futures price reached 100,000 yuan/ton, with positive bullish sentiment on the disk [2]. - On November 19, Liontown held a lithium spodumene concentrate auction. The auction item was 10,000 wet tons of 5.2% lithium spodumene, and the final transaction price was CIF SC6 1,254 US dollars/dry ton, with the goods expected to be shipped in the first half of January 2026 [3]. - As of the end of October 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) was 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5%, with a total rated power of 20.3 billion kilowatts and an average power of about 44.69 kilowatts; the number of private charging facilities (guns) was 14.112 million, a year - on - year increase of 59.4%, and the reported power consumption capacity of private charging facilities reached 124 million kVA [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of the lithium spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the same level as in October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [2]. - On the demand side, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market grew rapidly, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight. The production schedules of battery cells and cathode materials continued to improve in November, and it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to show inventory reduction in November [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of mining production, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].

化工日报 | 2025-11-20 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15440元/吨，较前一日变动+145元/吨；NR主力合约12480元/吨，较前一日变动+135 元/吨；BR主力合约10705元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前 一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1760美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10450元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比 ...

烧碱山东江苏累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4492元/吨（-28）；华东基差-32元/吨（+8）;华南基差18元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4510元/吨（-30）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-20 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存40.22万吨（-1.26）；片碱工厂库存3.02万吨（+0.12）；烧碱开工率84.10%（-0.70%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率85.37%（+0.12%）；印染华东开工率66.55%（-1.51%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.50%（-0.10%）。 市场分析 PVC： PVC单边震荡偏弱。供应端本周有1套装置计划检修，多数当前检修恢复，预计供应量回升，新投产能逐步量产： 渤化9月20日已满产；甘肃耀望与浙江嘉化试车后低负荷运行，随着近期新投产装置的增加，PVC供应端仍呈现充 裕格局。需求端下游开工下降，低价采购好转，但整体采购情绪一般。出口侧印度BIS认证取消，近期市场对反倾 销税取消预期增加，出口仍以价换量，出口签单环比走强；9月27日印度发起对PVC壁纸的反倾销调查。社会库存 小幅 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 市场成交清淡 铅价延续震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-19，LME铅现货升水为-28.21美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至17175元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-100元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-19，沪铅主力合约开于17225元/吨，收于17250元/吨，较前一交易日变化20元/吨，全天交易日 成交17225手，较前一交易日变化-8860手，全天交易日持仓17250手，手较前一交易日变化-5231手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17265元/吨，最低点达到17170元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty in the commodity sector. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][3] - The domestic economic foundation needs further consolidation, and the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is controversial. The market is concerned about the US September non - farm payroll data and Japan's fiscal situation [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, and it is estimated that the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period may be around 5%. On October 30, China and the US reached a three - aspect outcome consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8; China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Investment, consumption, and industrial growth rates also slowed down. The State Council Executive Meeting on November 14 studied the implementation of "two major" construction and promoted consumption policies. On November 18 - 19, China and the Netherlands held consultations on the Nexperia issue, and the Dutch government suspended the administrative order [1] - Fed situation: Many Fed voting members have expressed cautious views on a December interest rate cut, but Fed Governor Waller supports a cut, and Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a slow - paced policy. The US government's shutdown ended on November 12, which is estimated to have reduced the Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points and caused a net loss of about $11 billion. The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and ADP data showed a weekly average decrease of 2,500 private - sector jobs in the four weeks up to November 1. Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas [1] - International situation: Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached a 17 - year high on November 19 due to expectations of a large - scale supplementary budget. Saudi Crown Prince will invest up to $1 trillion in the US [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous and precious metals: The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved and is boosted by global easing expectations. On November 19, the lithium carbonate futures main contract exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton. After the short - term adjustment risk of precious metals is cleared, consider buying on dips. On November 19, spot gold exceeded $4,100, up 0.85% intraday, and spot silver reached $52/ounce, up 2.58% intraday [2] - Black sector: Still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, focus on the "anti - involution" situation [2] - Energy sector: OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels last week [2] - Chemical sector: Pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea, PTA and other varieties [2] - Agricultural products: With the China - US talks concluded, focus on China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [3]

化工日报 | 2025-11-20 EG基差继续走弱，负反馈逐步显现 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3903元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.10%），EG华东市场现货价3925 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.76%），EG华东现货基差24元/吨（环比-6元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-59美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-994 元/吨（环比-20元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数17万吨，副 港到港量4.7万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。 策略 单边：中性。投产压力较大，随着港口库存的回升，场内货源流动性增加，乙二醇现货基差趋弱。但近期高成本 装置负反馈逐渐出现，高供应和累库压力有所缓解 跨期：EG2601-EG2605反套 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices slightly increased after a slow new - order follow - up last week. Currently, agricultural and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers are ending, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. Melamine production has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off - season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories slightly increased. The high domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. The export quota news improves the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report shows information on urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and national capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents urea small - particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large - particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small - and large - particle FOB and CFR prices in China, price differences, and export and on - disk export profits, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [52][53][56] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,663 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (+9). The urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,044 yuan/ton (- 20) [2] - **Supply Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (- 46,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [2] - **Demand Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32% (- 0.72%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the number of advance order days of urea enterprises was 7.12 days (- 0.59) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 需求提升有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11560元/吨，较前交易日变动+25.00元/吨，幅度+0.22%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.71元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+150，较前交易日变动+85；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH01+210，较前交易日变动-5；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01-310，较前交易日变动-25。 据农业农村部监测，11月19日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.44，比昨天上升0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.55，比昨天上升0.04个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.92元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；牛肉66.70 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉62.38元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%；鸡蛋7.31元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17.47 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%。 市场分析 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-20 港口回流内地，港口库存高位回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润573元/吨（+10）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1978元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差565元/吨（+27），内蒙南线1920元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2140元/吨（+0）， 鲁南基差327元/吨（+17）；河南2000元/吨（-15），河南基差187元/吨（+2）；河北2075元/吨（+0），河北基差322 元/吨（+17）。隆众内地工厂库存358700吨（-10550），西北工厂库存188500吨（-17000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 246320吨（+920），西北工厂待发订单125400吨（+8900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇1997元/吨（-5），太仓基差-16元/吨（+12），CFR中国234美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-46元/ 吨（-10），常州甲醇2235元/吨；广东甲醇1990元/吨（-20），广东基差-23元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存1479340吨 （-64260），江苏港口库存819300吨（-17300） ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-20 股指维持箱体运行 市场分析 联储内部分歧大。对外方面，中国向日方通报暂停进口日本水产品。外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，当 前形势下，即使日本水产品向中国出口也不会有市场。国内方面，中指研究院表示，今年前10月，重点城市二手 住宅累计成交量普遍保持小幅增长态势，10月市场活跃度有所下降。预计11月二手住宅成交量环比将有所修复， 但去年高基数下同比仍面临一定压力，短期价格或延续调整态势。海外方面，美联储公布10月政策会议纪要，决 策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间内维持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。不过， 也有若干位官员指出，若经济表现与预期一致，12月再次降息"很可能是合适的"。 支持降息的一方并未在人数上 占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负债表的量化紧缩行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。 股指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡，沪指涨0.18%收于3946.74点，创业板指涨0.25%。行业方面，板块指数 跌多涨少，有色金属、石油石化、国防军工行业涨幅居前，房地产、传媒、建筑材料、商贸零售行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额回落至1.7万亿元。海外 ...