Report Investment Ratings - The overall strategy for the cotton, sugar, and pulp markets is neutral [2][6][8] Core Views - Cotton: New cotton has support before large - scale listing, but pressure will be released during the centralized listing period. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Affected by raw sugar, it may fall below the key support level, but there is cost support. In the medium - term, it should be treated with a bearish view [6] - Pulp: The fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,062 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from last year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5044 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the export sales progress is slow [1] - Domestic: The cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the commercial inventory is at a low level, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure is large during the new - flower listing period [1] Sugar - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The production increase expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains, suppressing the raw sugar price [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic production and sales in August were not good, the import volume reached a new high, and the supply is sufficient in the short - term [4] Pulp - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: The consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also soft, which suppresses the pulp price [7]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 现货价格趋稳，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 市场分析 2025-09-24，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73700元/吨，收于72880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.79%。当日 成交量为345221手，持仓量为260654手，前一交易日持仓量255907手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为830元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单39749手，较上个交易日变化300手。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 1、 消费端不及预期， 2、 矿端扰动超预期， 3、 宏观情绪及持仓变动影响。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73200-74500元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价 71000-72200元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格828美元/吨，较前一日变化-5美元/吨。据SMM数据， 下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，市场整体成交活跃度不高。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游材料厂的国庆节前备货逐 步接近尾声，前期在价格相对低位时已释放较多采购需求。材料厂 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 市场现货成交仍陷清淡 铅价在万七附近持续震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-24，LME铅现货升水为-42.13美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16950 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-10.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-25元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-24，沪铅主力合约开于17085元/吨，收于17065元/吨，较前一交易日变化-20元/吨，全天交易日 成交43329手，较前一交易日变化-5429手，全天交易日持仓61071手，手较前一交易日变化-2870手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17110元/吨，最低点 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 矿端干扰再现 铜价大幅走高 矿端方面，外电9月24日消息，自由港印尼公司今日宣布了此前报告的在印尼Grasberg矿山泥石流事件状态的更新， 9月20日自由港印尼公司发现两名成员在9月8日的事件中不幸遭遇致命伤害，目前正在全力搜寻其余5名失踪成员。 事故导致约80万吨湿料瞬间涌入井下多个作业层，矿区自当日已暂停作业。与7月份预测比，公司预计第三季度公 司铜销量同比下降约4%，黄金销量同比下降约6%。预计2026财年产量可能比此前预估的1.7亿磅铜和160万盎司黄 金下降约35%。根据分阶段重启计划，公司运营率可能在2027年恢复到事故前的水平。这也直接导致铜价于昨日夜 盘大幅走高。 冶炼及进口方面，中国8月废铜进口量为17.94万吨，环比减少5.6%，同比增加5.8%，1-8月中国铜废碎料进口量151.49 万吨，同比下滑0.3%。其中，前两大供应国日本和泰国输送量都有不同程度回落，从美国进口量仅为543吨。Mysteel 分析认为，8月份废铜进口多数时间处于亏损状态，废铜进口贸易商的进口积极性受到一定抑制。另外8月极端天 气频繁，台风天气较多，影响运输，到港时 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 台风天气下，镍不锈钢走势平稳 镍品种 市场分析 2025-09-24日沪镍主力合约2511开于121150元/吨，收于121450元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.23%，当日成交量为 107755（+54856）手，持仓量为85526（1266）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力换月至2511合约合约价格呈现小幅上涨态势，整体表现较为平稳。从日内走势来看，夜 盘走势较强，早盘价格维持震荡，午后继续小幅波动，最终收盘微涨240元/吨。昨晚美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话称利 率仍具限制性，需平衡就业和通胀，表明未来可能进一步降息，对镍价有一定支撑作用。 镍矿方面：新一轮报价开出，菲律宾CNC矿山1.3%FOB31，菲律宾至印尼1.4%镍矿成交分别落地CIF50.5和CIF51.5。 近期受台风天气影响，部分沿海地区镍矿卸货受阻。菲矿山报价维持坚挺，苏里高等矿区装船未受影响，下游铁 厂亏损仍存，对原料镍矿采购维持谨。印尼方面，镍矿市场供应持续宽松格局。9月(二期)内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3 美元，内贸升水方面，当前升水维持+24，升水区间为+23-24。 现货方面：金川集团上海市 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-09-25 马士基WEEK42周报价开出，10月合约交割结算价格逐渐清 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹40周报价875/1470，41周报价840/1400，42周报价涨至1080/1800；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格935/1435，10月上半月价格935/1435，10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半月价格1535/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月上半月价格915/1515；ONE 10月上半月船期报价915/1435；HMM上海-鹿特丹 10月上半月船期报价968/1506; YML 9月22日至10月15日报价850/1300。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1010/1620，10月上半月船期报价1010/1620;CMA上海-安特 卫普10月下半月尝试挺价，价格为1460/2520。EMC 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1710；OOCL 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1450美元/FEU。 地缘端： 波兰总理：伊 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-25 晚熟富士走稳，新疆灰枣长势分化 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8336元/吨，较前一日变动+48元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-736，较前一日变动-48；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1264，较前一日变动-48。 近期市场资讯，晚熟富士陆续脱袋，关注晚熟富士质量及采青富士价格走势。山东库存富士走货较前期略放缓， 预计短期好货行情呈稳定态势运行。山东栖霞产区库内老富士走货尚可，库内一般货源价格偏弱，片红出货速度 较条纹货源略快，果农积极顺价出货。山东蓬莱产区整体交易转缓，客商数量不多，库内剩余条纹大果为主。陕 西延安洛川产区采青富士目前70#以上市场主流价格4.2-4.5元/斤附近，秦脆70#以上主流4.8-5.2元/斤，烟富10，70# 以上主流4.8-5.0元/斤。产地晚熟富士大面积脱袋。辽宁瓦房店，早熟富士70#起步2.0-2.5元/斤附近，返青果1.2-1. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20680元/吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨，较上 一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20690元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至10元/吨；佛山A00 铝价录20620元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-55元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-24日沪铝主力合约开于20685元/吨，收于20705元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，最 高价达20740元/吨，最低价达到20625元/吨。全天交易日成交107916手，全天交易日持仓221314手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-24，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.8万吨，较上一期变化0.0吨，仓单库存67736 吨，较上一交易日变化-1224吨，LME铝库存517150吨，较上一交易日变化3300吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-24SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2950元/吨，山东价格录得2910元/吨，河南价格录得 2990元/吨，广西价格录得3160元/吨，贵州价格录得3 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The zinc spot market is difficult to improve, even if the previous absolute price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton, the spot discount has not been repaired. The domestic and foreign trends still deviate, with continuous destocking of overseas inventories, increasing the risk of warehouse receipts, which forms a favorable support for prices. Domestically, consumption shows an obvious transition from the off - season to the peak season, with the downstream operating rate increasing month - on - month, but the domestic supply - side pressure remains. Although the domestic concentrate TC may decline later, the imported concentrate TC continues to rise, so the inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $43.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,820 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a spot premium/discount of - 60 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 21,830 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of - 75 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,895 yuan/ton, closed at 21,860 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 109,733 lots, and the position was 141,867 lots. The highest intraday price reached 21,985 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,860 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 157,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 44,400 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased again, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metal prices. However, the zinc spot market is difficult to improve. The domestic and foreign trends deviate, with overseas destocking and increasing warehouse - receipt risks supporting prices. Domestically, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but supply - side pressure remains, and inventory accumulation is still expected. [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral. [6]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-25 "924"一周年A股飘红，矿难冲击推升铜价 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月经济压力边际增加，一是中国8月经济数据有所转弱，显现"工业缓、投资弱、消费淡" 等特征；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时报》和路透社披露， 特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频提稳增长政策。9月10 日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力""推 进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。中美双方在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，就以合作方式妥善 解决TikTok问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。9月19日晚，中美元首通电话，就当 前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。国务院召开新闻发 布会，介绍"十四五"时期金融业的发展情况，此次会议不涉及短期政策调整，关于"十五五"以及下一步金融改革内 容，将在中央统一部署后做进一步沟通。商务部会同中央网信办、财政部等8部门印发了《关于促进 ...