Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Trump's claim to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st pushed up Comex copper prices, while LME and SHFE copper prices declined. If the tariff policy is implemented, it may be too late to transport copper to the New York market, leading to an increase in LME copper inventory. Currently, short - term LME copper is weak, SHFE copper is in a downward oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see. However, the copper supply - demand fundamentals won't change fundamentally [7] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 10, 2025, the SHFE copper main contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,600 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,700 yuan/ton and closed at 78,590 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the previous day, the premium of SHFE copper spot collapsed. As the price dropped and the month - spread widened to over BACK250 yuan/ton, near the contract change, holders sold actively, causing the premium to fall rapidly. Mainstream flat - copper premiums dropped from 40 - 80 yuan/ton to near - flat, and there were discounted goods around 11 am. Premium copper like Jinchuan large - board was traded at a premium of 20 - 60 yuan/ton. Non - registered goods had significant price drops, with discounts over 200 yuan/ton. Other goods in Changzhou were traded at discounts of 80 - 40 yuan/ton [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Many Fed officials spoke. St. Louis Fed President Musalem thought the impact of tariffs on inflation might not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit could be a financial stability issue. San Francisco Fed President Daly considered a rate cut in the fall and expected two rate cuts this year. Governor Waller reiterated the possible reasons for a July rate cut. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce responded that the US Commerce Secretary might meet Chinese negotiators in early August, and the two sides were in close communication on economic and trade concerns. The Foreign Ministry stated that Trump's 50% copper tariff was not in anyone's interest [3] - **Mine End**: On July 9, Canadian junior mining company Super Copper agreed to acquire 100% of the Castilla copper project in Chile for a $100,000 advance payment. The total price is $1.3 million, with most payments due after achieving key milestones. The project covers 5,800 hectares in the Atacama region and includes 20 exploration concessions. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of July [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2025, 24 cathode - copper producers with a total effective capacity of 12.065 million tons (up 7.25% from last year, accounting for 83.84% of the national total) were tracked. From January to June 2025, they produced 6.0585 million tons of cathode copper, a 10.07% year - on - year increase. June output was 1.0617 million tons, up 12.91% year - on - year and 1.02% month - on - month. July output is expected to be stable at around 1.06 million tons, up 13.22% year - on - year. The US 50% copper import tariff won't affect Indian companies due to India's copper shortage, high domestic demand, and low copper exports to the US (only about 10,000 tons) [5] - **Consumption**: Based on a survey of 31 domestic copper - rod producers (with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tons), the daily copper - rod order volume was 12,200 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons (18.21% month - on - month) from the previous day. The refined - copper rod order volume was 8,100 tons, down 4,000 tons (32.91% month - on - month), and the recycled - copper rod order volume was 4,100 tons, up 1,300 tons (45.33% month - on - month). The actual transaction prices were 79,000 - 79,150 yuan/ton for self - pick - up and 79,100 - 79,200 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 4,625 tons to 108,100 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 393 tons to 21,729 tons. On July 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 143,700 tons, a change of 800 tons from the previous week [6] Price and Related Data Tables - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: On July 11, 2025, SMM 1 copper had different premium/discount situations for different types of copper. For example, premium copper was at a premium of 35 yuan/ton, flat - copper was at a discount of 5 yuan/ton, and wet - process copper was at a discount of 75 yuan/ton. The Yangshan premium was 62, and LME (0 - 3) was 22 [25] - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 108,100 tons, SHFE inventory was 84,589 tons, and COMEX inventory was 202,671 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts were 21,729 tons, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio was 35.71% [26] - **Arbitrage**: The spreads such as CU09 - CU07, CU08 - CU07, and ratios like CU08/AL08 and CU0/ZN08 had specific values on July 11. The import profit was - 571, and the SHFE - LME ratio (main contract) was 8.12 [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream battery enterprises are gradually entering the peak demand season. It is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$16.79/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [2] Futures Market - On July 10, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,897 lots, down 2,108 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52,534 lots, up 273 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,295 yuan/ton and a low of 17,120 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon close [2] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes narrowed to near par with SMM1 lead, but actual transactions were scarce, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales faced difficulties in closing deals. In Yunnan, holders' quotes at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales met with just the rigid demand. With a slight increase in lead futures prices, some holders were reluctant to sell and were waiting and seeing or intended to deliver to the warehouse, while downstream enterprises maintained rigid procurement, resulting in a slight decline in market transactions [3] Inventory - On July 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 61,000 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the same period last week. As of July 10, the LME lead inventory was 252,375 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's tariff policy is advancing, but the resilience of the US job market supports the three major US stock indices to close in the green. In China, as policy expectations become clearer, the heavyweight sectors start a catch - up rally, with the real estate sector significantly rebounding and the stock prices of the four major banks hitting new highs, driving up the Shanghai Composite Index. The strong performance of the equity market is expected to form a capital attraction effect, increasing the willingness of residents to transfer savings and long - term institutional funds to enter the market, which lays a solid foundation for the long - term healthy operation of the capital market [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, from January 1, 2025, the basic pension level of retirees who have completed retirement procedures and receive monthly basic pensions by the end of 2024 will be increased by 2%, based on the average monthly basic pension of retirees in 2024. Overseas, Trump urges Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates and announces a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025. He also criticizes the Fed's current interest rate policy, claiming that the interest rate is at least 3 percentage points too high, causing an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the US [1] Spot Market - A - share indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.48% at 3509.68 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.22%. The real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, steel, and non - banking financial sectors lead the gains, while the automobile, media, and national defense and military industries lead the declines. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remains at 1.5 trillion yuan. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims is 227,000, the lowest in two months, and the number of continuing jobless claims is 1.965 million, still the highest since the end of 2021. The three major US stock indices close slightly higher, with the Dow up 0.43% at 44,650.64 points [2] Futures Market - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures fluctuates slightly. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increase simultaneously [2] Strategy - The current strong performance of the equity market can attract funds, with increased willingness of residents to transfer savings and long - term institutional funds to enter the market, which is beneficial for the long - term healthy operation of the capital market [3] Macroeconomic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [6][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.48% to 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rises 0.47% to 10,631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index rises 0.22% to 2189.58 points. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13][14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the open interest and trading volume of stock index futures. For example, the trading volume of IF is 97,027, an increase of 14,938, and the open interest is 258,020, an increase of 11,835. There are also charts of open interest, open interest ratio, net open interest of foreign capital, basis, and inter - delivery spread of different stock index futures contracts [17][42][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the container shipping market, especially the Far - East to Europe route. It indicates that the freight rate is oscillating at a high level. The 8 - month contract freight rate is likely to peak and decline, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season. The 12 - month contract's price is usually higher than that of the 10 - month contract, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation. The strategy suggests that the main contract will oscillate, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract [4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price As of July 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 76,829.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 51,307.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1365.70, EC2604 is 1204.00, EC2506 is 1342.10, EC2508 is 2022.50, EC2510 is 1401.10, and EC2512 is 1556.40 [7]. 3.2 Spot Price On July 4, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2101.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2089.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 4124.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2258.04 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1557.77 points [7]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU. The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. 3.4 Supply Chain Geopolitical factors affect the shipping supply chain. The Israel - Hamas conflict situation is complex, and the Houthi armed forces' attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue. The passage of ships through important canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is also a focus [2]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy The report does not provide specific analysis content on demand and the European economy, only lists relevant data charts such as port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, and EU 27 imports from China [73]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract oscillates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [8].

现货供应压力仍存，豆粕价格震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2954元/吨，较前日变动+7元/吨，幅度+0.24%；菜粕2509合约2611元/吨，较前 日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.97%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2860元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-94， 较前日变动+3；江苏地区豆粕现货2790元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-164，较前日变动+3；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-174，较前日变动-7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09-1，较前日变动-5。 近期市场资讯，特朗普近日在社交平台上表示，美国将自2025年8月1日起对文莱和摩尔多瓦的产品征收25%的关税， 对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚及斯里兰卡的产品征收30%关税，对菲律宾的产品征收20%关税、对巴西的产品征 收50%关税。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季美豆上市之前，国内大豆都 将维持宽松的供应格局。新季美豆方面，由 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 现货升水转为贴水 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为4.68 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨240元/吨至22400元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至55元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨240元/吨至22330元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至-15元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨240元/吨 至22340元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至-5元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-10沪锌主力合约开于22120元/吨，收于22385元/吨，较前一交易日上涨305元/吨，全天交易日 成交146456手，较前一交易日减少8057手，全天交易日持仓112634手，较前一交易日减少2128手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22430元/吨，最低点达到22110元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-10，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.03万吨，较上周同期增加0.79万吨。截止2025-07-10，LME 锌库存为105600吨，较上一交易日减少1100吨。 市场分析 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-11 棉价偏强震荡，纸浆低位回升 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13865元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15175元/吨，较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF09+1310，较前一日变动-23；3128B棉全国均价15196元/吨， 较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF09+1331，较前一日变动-23。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA），截至7月3日一周，美国本年度陆地棉净签约1.7万吨，装运5.5万吨。其中 至中国净签约272吨，当周未装运。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续偏强震荡。国际方面，目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期， 25/26年度全球棉市仍将处于供应偏松格局。由于美棉实播面积高于预期，主产区旱情较此前明显改善，预计新年 度美棉平衡表也难有明显改善，下半年美棉期价预计延续震荡格局，跟随宏观市场情绪波动为主。后续需关注美 国"对等关税"暂停期结束后的政策变化，如果美国能与多个国家达成贸易协定，改善美棉需求预期，预计能给盘 面带来一定提振作用。 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-07-11 港口累库幅度仍偏慢 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润678元/吨（+10）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1973元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差175元/吨（-16），内蒙南线1980元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2290元/吨（+10）， 鲁南基差92元/吨（-16）；河南2175元/吨（+10），河南基差-23元/吨（-16）；河北2175元/吨（-10），河北基差37元/ 吨（-36）。隆众内地工厂库存356900吨（+4620），西北工厂库存228000吨（+4500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单221240 吨（-12010），西北工厂待发订单100000吨（-10400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2390元/吨（+5），太仓基差-8元/吨（-21），CFR中国276美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-43元/吨 （-10），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2410元/吨（+10），广东基差12元/吨（-16）。隆众港口总库存718900吨（+45240）， 江苏港口库存395000吨（+62000），浙江港口库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent BZ2603 rally results from the combined forces of industry anti - arbitrage and the compression of styrene production profit. The BZ futures premium has further expanded, with limited potential for increasing the pure benzene processing fee. Styrene port inventory is continuously accumulating, and its production profit faces further compression pressure. The decline in EPS and PS开工 further drags down EB demand [3] Summary by Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread [8][11][14][17] II. Production Profit and Internal - External Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread [19][22][27][30][32] III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene operating rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory [37][39][42] IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [48][50][52] V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spun bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [57][61][70][78][81][82] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main contract basis: - 268 yuan/ton (- 103) [1] - Port inventory: 17.40 tons (- 0.30 tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 140 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 126 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 113.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 95 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit: - 1910 yuan/ton (- 105) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit: - 564 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Aniline production profit: - 171 yuan/ton (- 305) [1] - Adipic acid production profit: - 1487 yuan/ton (- 72) [1] - Caprolactam operating rate: 95.72% (+ 0.00%) [1] - Phenol operating rate: 78.00% (- 0.50%) [1] - Aniline operating rate: 70.90% (+ 1.66%) [1] - Adipic acid operating rate: 65.70% (+ 1.40%) [1] Styrene - Main contract basis: 205 yuan/ton (- 80 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: 219 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 111,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 39,000 tons (+ 7,700 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1] - Operating rate: 79.2% (- 0.8%) [1] Styrene Downstream (Hard Rubber) - EPS production profit: - 48 yuan/ton (- 89 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 298 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: 318 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS operating rate: 51.06% (- 4.82%) [2] - PS operating rate: 51.10% (- 1.30%) [2] - ABS operating rate: 65.00% (- 0.04%), at a seasonal low [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper cargo - far - month BZ2603 futures, conduct anti - arbitrage at high prices [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 不锈钢盘面拉涨，现货小幅跟涨 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-10日沪镍主力合约2508开于119140元/吨，收于121140元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.41%，当日成交量为 102155手，持仓量为65815手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘小幅上冲后横盘振荡，日盘继续横盘振荡振荡，午后快速拉升突破上方阻力后继续上涨， 收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日有所减少，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发 展中心近日表示，锚定到2035年基本实现新型城镇化目标，紧抓城镇化动力仍然较强的关键时期，高质量推进新 型城镇化四大行动，为中国式现代化提供有力支撑。菲律宾方面，苏里高矿区降雨仍存，加之季节性台风影响， 装船出货效率迟缓。印尼方面，镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出现减产得以缓解。7月（一期）内贸 升水维持+24-25。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约450元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上 调，盘面镍价快速回升，重回12万，需求未见明显增长，部分贸易商下调现货升贴水以促成交，下游企业按需采 购为主，现货成交一般。其中金川镍 ...