Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there are uncertainties in tariffs and potential risks of export decline after front - loading. However, in the short term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has put pressure on the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term rebound of the bond market is unlikely to form a trend. A similar situation occurred from February to March this year, and it may require the alleviation of relevant negative factors for the bond market to stabilize and rise again. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. In the morning, the weak stock market boosted the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures rebounded across the board. However, in the afternoon, the rising stock market suppressed the bond market, and the decline widened at the end of the session [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased, with a larger increase at the long end. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.7825%, up 1.65bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively protected the funding market. The inter - bank funding market tightened in the morning and loosened again in the afternoon. There were 218.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 397.5 billion yuan. The tax - payment period disturbance was gradually weakening. The short - term funding rates increased slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits rising 0.29bp to 1.47% and the 7 - day rate rising 2.28bp to 1.568%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.6% [10] - **Conclusion**: Long - term bullish foundation unchanged, but short - term pressure exists. Maintain the strategy of going long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [11][12] 2. Industry News - The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, stated that policies would be strengthened to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market, which is important for small and medium - sized enterprises to solve financing problems and for the diversified development of the financial market [13] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain sufficient liquidity, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and use structural monetary policy tools to support key areas [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Include information on the trading data of treasury bond futures contracts, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the trend of main contracts [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Data on bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted rates, inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure and trend [25][28][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Data on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves [37][38]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The chemical industry is undergoing adjustments to address over - capacity. The futures market of polyolefins shows a weak trend with cautious trading. The supply - side pressure of PP is increasing as more devices restart, while the supply of PE is relatively neutral. The downstream consumption shows some improvement but has a weaker outlook compared to the same period last year. Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the demand improvement and inventory reduction in the second half of the month [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The prices of plastic and PP futures contracts generally rose. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.37%); PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.40%) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The futures market remained weak, with cautious trading. Traders offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly purchased at low prices. The upstream device operating rate continued to increase. The supply - side pressure of PP increased due to the restart of devices, and the supply of PE was relatively neutral. The downstream operating rates of some industries increased, but the peak - season expectations were weaker than last year [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 20, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 78.5 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 79.5 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7130 - 7430 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6380 - 6400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some restarted devices led to sufficient supply, and producers slightly lowered prices to promote sales [5]. - **PP Market**: The domestic PP market continued to decline, with a decline of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6880 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6830 - 7080 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on futures market quotes, including opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - There are also some figures related to inventory, such as two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, but specific data is not described in detail in the text [9].

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 21 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 20日PTA主力期货 TA2601收盘价4778元/吨，上涨 32元/吨，幅度 0.67%， 结算价 4742 元/吨，日增仓 6367 手。淘汰落后石化产能的传闻以及韩国可能 减产石脑油的传闻提振 PTA 市场，盘中原油上涨，利好市场心态 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of abundant zinc ore and sufficient zinc ingots in the domestic zinc market is more prominent during the off - season of demand, and the inventory accumulation trend continues [7]. - The zinc market will maintain a loose supply situation, and the demand is in the off - season with no substantial improvement. Although the macro - environment is favorable, the weak fundamentals cannot resonate. The Shanghai zinc has given back its previous gains, and the current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continues. The domestic market is unlikely to fall sharply due to the influence of the overseas market. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season for demand in the second half of the month, and the callback space for Shanghai zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc 2510 closed at 22,265 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, with a gain of 0.09%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest increased by 5,418 lots to 110,994 lots. LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 tons to 71,250 tons, all from Singapore, with 0 - 3C at 10.26 [7]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply of zinc ore is loose, pushing up the processing fee. The import zinc concentrate index is reported at 82.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the SMM domestic zinc concentrate monthly TC average price remains stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices have driven the continuous expansion of smelters' profit margins, and the production enthusiasm of smelters is high. The domestic refined zinc output in August may increase to 621,500 tons, and the supply side remains abundant. The off - season characteristics of downstream demand are significant. Although there are demand - supporting policies, the weakness cannot be concealed in the short term, and the operating load in the primary consumption field is still in a weak range [7]. 2. Industry News - **Zinc Price Transactions on August 20, 2025**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,150 - 22,290 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,080 - 22,220 yuan/ton. The price differences in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong were reported, including the premium or discount of different brands relative to the contract and the price differences between regions [8][9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents data such as the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [13][15]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) is in a range - bound adjustment. Seasonal peak season is approaching, downstream procurement has increased, and market trading has improved. Although textile mills are still in losses, the losses have narrowed. Before the new cotton is listed, ZCE cotton may fluctuate around the expected opening price of seed cotton, with limited upside and downside in the short - term [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 is 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The low basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint (3129/29B/impurity within 3.5) is in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce. More quotes are above CF09 + 1200, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) is mostly above CF09 + 1450, and the low basis is in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1450. Some CF01 contract quotes are the same, also for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - **Domestic Downstream Market**: The seasonal peak season is approaching, downstream procurement and stocking have increased, and market trading has improved. Textile mills' losses have narrowed, but the operating rate has not recovered. Inland textile mills maintain a low operating rate, and inventory has decreased. The price of pure - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, downstream inquiries and sales have not improved continuously, and the overall trading atmosphere is still weak. The overall operating rate of weaving factories has increased slightly, and inventory has slowly declined [7] - **Overseas Market**: As of the week ending August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (53% the previous week, 42% the same period last year); the boll - setting rate was 73% (65% the previous week, 83% the same period last year, 80% the five - year average); the full - boll rate was 13% (8% the previous week, 18% the same period last year, 16% the five - year average); the budding rate was 97% (93% the previous week, 98% the same period last year, 98% the five - year average). The short - term external market is difficult to break out of the range - bound situation [8] - **Domestic Market Outlook**: As the new cotton listing period approaches, the expected output of new cotton is stable with a slight increase. The downstream industry has gradually improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased slightly, the operating rate of textile mills has remained stable, and the grey fabric end is still dominated by small orders. The overall demand has improved slightly compared with the previous period. The recent market rumor that the pre - purchased price of seed cotton in northern Xinjiang is about 6.3 yuan/kg has put pressure on the market [8] 2. Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that starting from September 1, 2026, for the warehouse receipts registered in the following cotton delivery warehouses, the warehouse premium and discount will be calculated according to the adjusted standards. For the warehouse receipts registered before September 1, 2026, the warehouse premium and discount will be calculated according to the original standards [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][19][26]

Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The 8 - month USDA supply - demand balance report for US soybeans in 2025/26 is unexpectedly bullish. Assuming the area estimate is reasonable, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. With good weather, the room for further increase in yield per unit is shrinking, and most of the weather - related bearish factors have been digested. Although China may stop purchasing new - season US soybeans, US export demand may not decline significantly. New - season US soybeans will only be slightly loose, and the CBOT soybean low may have appeared, with future trends expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [6]. - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the external market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the high - tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed products are bullish for soybean meal. Although China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans, the import cost may increase, so soybean meal is expected to remain bullish in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3167, the opening price was 3158, the highest price was 3164, the lowest price was 3131, the closing price was 3160, with a decrease of 7 and a decline rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 1,059,141, the open interest was 2,098,746, and the open interest decreased by 9,162 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3115, the opening price was 3105, the highest price was 3117, the lowest price was 3080, the closing price was 3116, with an increase of 1 and an increase rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 205,158, the open interest was 313,228, and the open interest decreased by 76,626 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3149, the opening price was 3141, the highest price was 3147, the lowest price was 3108, the closing price was 3143, with a decrease of 6 and a decline rate of 0.19%. The trading volume was 147,959, the open interest was 573,773, and the open interest decreased by 19,396 [6]. - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1035 cents. The USDA's August supply - demand balance report showed that the estimated harvested area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the yield per unit was expected to be 53.6 bushels per acre (market expectation: 52.9 bushels per acre), and the production was expected to be 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels). The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season in August was 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels) [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the CBOT soybean to have reached its low point, with future trends expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Domestically, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish in the medium term [6]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - **Pro Farmer's Forecast**: In 2025, the average number of soybean pods per 3x3 square - foot area in Ohio is expected to be 1,287.28 (2024: 1,229.93, three - year average: 1,204.83). In South Dakota, it is expected to be 1,188.45 (2024: 1,025.89, three - year average: 970.10) [11]. - **USDA Pressing Weekly Report**: As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.91 per bushel, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average pressing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than the $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at Illinois soybean processing plants was $287.98 per short ton (equivalent to $6.70 per bushel). The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.49 cents per pound (equivalent to $6.31 per bushel). The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.32 per bushel (last week: $9.98 per bushel) [11].

行业 鸡蛋 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 俄乌战争停火前景削弱贵金属的避险需求，同时市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔 可能不会在周末 Jackson-Hole 全球央行年会上对第二阶段降息步伐给出清晰指 引，美元指数反弹至 98.3 而伦敦黄金回调至 3320 美元/盎司附近，波动性更大的 白银则回撤到 37.2 美元/盎司附近。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组 且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中 线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦黄金或在 3120-35 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand and the inventory accumulation situation cannot be alleviated in the short - term, and the demand side is difficult to make efforts. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly. The glass industry's fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and the main glass futures contract will also show a short - term weakening trend [8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market on August 19**: The main soda ash futures contract SA601 fluctuated downward. The closing price was 1358 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.58%, and the daily open interest increased by 29,929 lots. Fundamentally, short - term production increased, and inventory remained at a high level. Weekly soda ash production rose to 761,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%. The factory inventory increased to 1.8938 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.54%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased to 87,000 tons, and that of float glass remained unchanged. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly [7][8] - **Glass Market**: As of August 15, 2025, the national float glass daily melting volume was 159,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, remaining at a high level. The order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.65 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 days. The increase in enterprise inventory days was higher than that of orders, and the total glass inventory was about 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes. In the short term, the fundamentals of the glass industry continued to deteriorate, and the profit of the industry slightly decreased, severely restricting the price rebound space. The main glass futures contract will show a short - term weakening trend [9] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, the weekly production of soda ash, the enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][14][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures prices mainly fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 1.26%, with a trading volume of 438,313 lots and an open interest of 286,605 lots, a net decrease of 11,014 lots. The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable. Multiple production areas' device production pushed the weekly output to 84,700 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production schedule in August will increase to 125,000 tons, and the organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The supply and demand both increase, maintaining a loose balance (excluding 97 silicon and recycled silicon), and the industry has no inventory reduction drive. The anti-involution policy sets the bottom tone, but there is no implemented policy drive in the industrial silicon industry, and the weak and stable spot prices leave little room. Short-term attention should be paid to the convergent oscillation between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures prices mainly fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 1.26%, with a trading volume of 438,313 lots and an open interest of 286,605 lots, a net decrease of 11,014 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553-grade in Sichuan was 8,850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,500 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,700 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,950 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Multiple production areas' device production pushed the weekly output to 84,700 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production schedule in August will increase to 125,000 tons, and the organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The supply and demand both increase, maintaining a loose balance (excluding 97 silicon and recycled silicon), and the industry has no inventory reduction drive. The anti-involution policy sets the bottom tone, but there is no implemented policy drive in the industrial silicon industry, and the weak and stable spot prices leave little room. Short-term attention should be paid to the convergent oscillation between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4] 3.4 Market News - On August 19th, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,625 lots, a net decrease of 85 lots from the previous trading day. The domestic DMC market price declined, with the mainstream trading range between 10,700 - 11,200 yuan/ton for the net water acceptance delivery price, and the average price decreased by 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The monomer plants competed to sell, and the low-end trading center of gravity declined yesterday. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative industrial silicon export volume was 340,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. Among them, the single-month export volume in June was 68,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 12% [5]