行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 投产；泰国铝合金车轮第三工厂在建的年产 300 万只铸旋铝合金车轮产能预 计明年投产；公司在重庆、淮安、长春、泰国等地新建的高性能铝合金新材 料项目将于今年四季度到明年陆续投产。上述新增产能建成后，将进一步完 善公司的全球产能布局，提升公司的市场竞争力。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 3 - 铝观点： 沪铝日内围绕 2.2 万一线震荡运行，2602 合约尾盘报收于 21955 小幅上涨 0.25%。基本面上，国产矿虽趋紧，但在氧化 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 ＃summary＃ 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 每日报 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5192 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 0.54%, with a position of 63392 contracts, a decrease of 9827 contracts [7] - SR605 closed at 5102 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.68%, with a position of 518010 contracts, an increase of 30075 contracts [7] - US sugar 03 closed at 14.76 cents/pound, down 0.06 cents or 0.40%, with a position of 445628 contracts, a decrease of 1670 contracts [7] - US sugar 05 closed at 14.35 cents/pound, down 0.09 cents or 0.62%, with a position of 198069 contracts, an increase of 272 contracts [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures fluctuated downward, and the main March contract closed down 0.40% to 14.76 cents/pound. The weakening of the Brazilian real exchange rate has a certain inhibitory effect on sugar prices, and the sugar price has a slight decline but still remains above the 40 - day moving average, and the oscillation pattern will continue [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract continued to weaken. The 05 contract closed at 5192 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 0.54%, with a reduction of 9827 contracts. The domestic new sugar price was lowered. The price in Nanning was 5335 yuan/ton, and in Kunming was 5230 yuan/ton. In terms of fundamentals, the number of sugar mills starting production in the south is increasing, the market lacks confidence, and the downstream purchasing willingness is low. Short - selling funds in Zhengzhou sugar continue to suppress the 05 contract, which may break through 5100 and hit the 5000 mark [8] Group 3: Industry News - From January to November 2025, China imported a cumulative 4340000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 380000 tons. In November 2025, China imported 440000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar - making season, China imported 1190000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 120000 tons [11] - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the second half of December was 15993000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%; sugar production was 724000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%; ethanol production was 1.185 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.32%. The sugar content of sugarcane was 133.78 kg/ton, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. 35.52% of the cane juice was used for sugar production, compared with 44.64% in the same period of the previous year [11] - Brazil exported 1600790.93 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December, with an average daily export volume of 160079.09 tons, a 19% increase compared with the average daily export volume of 134937.22 tons in December of the previous year. The total export volume in December of the previous year was 2833681.54 tons [11] - The National Federation of Cane and Sugar Industries of India (NFCSF) has called on the Indian government to immediately raise the minimum support price (MSP) of sugar. The NFCSF welcomes the government's decision to allow the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025 - 2026 sugar - making season but warns that promoting exports alone is not enough to solve the increasingly serious liquidity crisis faced by cooperative sugar mills [11] Group 4: Data Overview Futures Trading Data - The trading volume of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 375635 lots, an increase of 31491 lots; the long - position volume was 327774 lots, an increase of 15981 lots; the short - position volume was 395899 lots, an increase of 16249 lots [23] Graphical Data - The report includes graphs such as the spot price trend, 2605 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats in the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [12][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The concerns about supply - side imports and import costs from the news have largely offset the previous price - decline pressure caused by oversupply. The market focus has shifted back to the supply - demand expectations for the first quarter of next year. Considering the impact of the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere around the end of December, with the expected increase in coal demand and the expected decrease in supply, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have stopped falling, rebounded, and then rapidly strengthened. Although it is unlikely for the prices to rise sharply in the future, the previous contradiction of oversupply has been significantly alleviated through expected factors, which is beneficial for the overall price recovery. Investors should change their operation strategies in a timely manner [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On December 18, the main contracts 2605 of coking coal and coke futures strengthened significantly with large increases, recovering all or most of the decline since December 8. The J2605 contract closed at 1743 yuan/ton, up 4.75%, with a trading volume of 18,789 lots and an open interest of 25,313 lots. The JM2605 contract closed at 1126.5 yuan/ton, up 6.07%, with a trading volume of 1,700,451 lots and an open interest of 501,331 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: On December 18, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coking coal and coke showed a divergent and obvious upward trend, and the daily MACD indicators of both contracts had golden crosses. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1570 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **News**: Starting from January 1, 2026, Indonesia will impose an export tariff on coal, but the specific tariff rate is unknown, with a previous indication of 1% - 5%. China imported about 2.4 billion tons of coal from Indonesia last year, accounting for about 44% of its total coal imports. There is an unconfirmed report that a large coal - using group will suspend the purchase of imported coal [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: On December 12, the second round of spot price cuts for coking coal was implemented. Independent coking enterprises have been profitable for four consecutive weeks, and the coke production of independent coking enterprises has increased for two consecutive weeks, but the growth rate has narrowed. Although the ports have been destocking coke for six consecutive weeks, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have recently stabilized and increased. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently, and the 10 - day moving average of the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 167,000 tons on December 6, an increase of 9.5% compared to the average since late November. The decline in the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has narrowed, and the steel mills' coking coal inventory has increased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Government Revenue**: From January to November, the national government - funded budget revenue was 402.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The central government - funded budget revenue was 39.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, while the local government - funded budget revenue was 363.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, with the state - owned land use right transfer income decreasing by 10.7% year - on - year [12]. - **Coal Production**: In November 2025, the national raw coal output was 426.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. From January to November, the cumulative national raw coal output was 4.40165 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [12]. - **Corporate News**: Orchid Science and Technology obtained a coal exploration license for the Sitou Block in Yangcheng County; Anyang Iron and Steel sold its equity in two subsidiaries; Wanneng Power indirectly holds about 3.5% of the equity of Fusion New Energy and will deepen cooperation; as of the end of November 2025, Shanxi had built 369 intelligent coal mines, accounting for more than one - third of the country; Inner Mongolia undertakes about 795 million tons of thermal coal supply tasks this year; Indonesia will impose an export tariff on coal; the steel industry in Iran faces a serious shortage of natural gas [12][13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple charts including the spot price indexes of metallurgical coke and primary coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average hot metal output, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [15][18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures rose, with the intraday gain of the main contract approaching the daily limit. The market continued to trade on the disturbance in Yichun's mining end. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor announced the proposed cancellation of its Shiziling mining area, which pushed up the lithium price. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800, and the prices in the industrial chain showed a stable upward trend. With the short - term supply - side disturbance, the market's bullish sentiment was high, breaking through the previous high, and a new round of upward trend in lithium prices was expected [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the intraday gain of the main contract almost hit the daily limit. The market focused on the mining - end disturbance in Yichun. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of the Shiziling mining area led to the high - opening and high - walking of the lithium price during the day. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1200 to 97050, the price of spodumene rose by 70 to 1330, the price of lepidolite increased by 85 to 2785, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 300, and the price of lithium iron phosphate rose by 280 - 295. The upward trend in the industrial chain was stable, and the lithium price was expected to continue rising [11]. 3.2. Industry News - A joint report by global consulting firm Kearney and the World Economic Forum showed that the global lithium supply can only meet one - third (35%) of the predicted demand in 2035. The report warned that the pace of global electrification, digitalization, and emission reduction is faster than the supply speed of mineral resources. The lithium supply needs to more than double by 2035, and the production of rare - earth elements and copper must increase by over 50%. By 2035, electric vehicles will account for 86% of the total lithium demand, 55% of the cobalt demand, and one - third of the total rare - earth consumption. Even if all announced projects are implemented, existing mines and smelters can only meet 35 - 45% of the predicted demand for lithium and graphite. There is a significant time mismatch in the value chain due to the long development cycle (10 - 20 years) of new mining projects compared to the 1 - 3 - year scale - up time for battery and motor factories. To achieve electrification goals, 60 million kilometers of transmission lines need to be newly built or replaced by 2035, and the grid infrastructure will account for 22% of the global copper demand, 29% of the vanadium demand, and 7% of the lithium demand [12]. - J.P. Morgan's latest report predicted that the average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 will be $17,500 per ton, a 43% increase from the previous forecast, and $22,000 per ton in 2027, a 66% increase. It is estimated that the lithium production of Chilean lithium producer SQM in 2026 will reach 275,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with 250,000 tons from Chile and 25,000 tons from Australia. The demand for energy - storage system batteries in 2026 is expected to reach 900 gigawatt - hours, a 17% increase from the previous forecast, and energy - storage systems will account for 34% of the total lithium demand in 2026, rising to 42% by 2030 [12]. - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau recently issued a public notice on the proposed cancellation of 27 mining rights, which attracted wide attention in the domestic lithium - battery industry, and some involved enterprises raised objections. Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining area in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, is one of the 27 mining rights to be cancelled. On the evening of December 16, Jiangte Motor announced that it had submitted an objection application to the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau, proposed relevant solutions, and tried its best to renew the mining license for the Shiziling mining area. The company also stated that the notice is a proposed cancellation notice, and the final decision depends on the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau. The company obtained the mining license for the Shiziling mining area in 2014 and renewed it in 2019, with an annual production scale of 1.2 million tons and a mining area of 0.1114 square kilometers [13].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The zinc market is currently intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and macro - sentiment fluctuates frequently. On the industrial level, supply tightening and off - season inventory reduction still provide downside support. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will continue to fluctuate around 23,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the futures market, for different contracts of SHFE zinc (2601, 2602, 2603), prices all declined. The main contract of SHFE zinc dropped to 22,835 yuan/ton, then oscillated higher in the morning session, closing at 22,970 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan with a decline of 0.73%, and there was a reduction in volume and open interest. The concern about low inventory of LME zinc eased, leading to a weaker structure, and the inventory on December 17 increased by 2,150 tons to 97,700 tons. Domestically, the tightness in the mining end continued to spread, with processing fees decreasing and arrivals reducing, which supported the continuous reduction of social inventory. Some spot market transactions improved slightly, but downstream buyers were mainly making rigid purchases due to factors like environmental protection. As the price on the futures market continued to fall, more downstream buyers were placing price - fixing orders [7] 2. Industry News - On December 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were concentrated between 23,035 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction prices of 1 zinc were between 22,965 - 23,130 yuan/ton. In different markets, such as Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong, there were specific price ranges and premium/discount situations for different brands of zinc relative to different contracts and other markets [8] 3. Data Overview - The report shows figures related to the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][12]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The center of Shanghai copper has moved slightly upward. After the former deputy governor of the Bank of Japan stated that premature interest rate hikes and excessive tightening should be avoided, market sentiment was greatly alleviated, and risk assets rose across the board. Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded again near the bull - bear line. The short - term market focus is on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision this Friday. Bullish signals will have an obvious impact on market sentiment, while bearish signals will have limited impact on the market under the strong fundamentals. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper's center moved slightly upward. The spot price of Shanghai copper rose 445 to 92,145, the discount widened 25 to 150, and the spot loss expanded to over a thousand yuan, mainly due to the significant decline in the exchange ratio [10] Group 5: Industry News - The Canadian government has approved the $53 - billion all - stock merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources. The new company "Anglo Teck" will relocate its headquarters to Vancouver, Canada, and plans to invest at least C$45 billion (about $32 billion) in Canada within 5 years and C$10 billion (about $7.3 billion) within 15 years. It will also invest at least C$100 million (about $73 million) in relevant research and training. The transaction is expected to take up to 18 months for global regulatory approval, and the new company's copper production will account for nearly 5% of the global market share [7] - Japan's JX Metals announced on December 16 that its subsidiary, Pan Pacific Copper (PPC), has sold all its equity in the undeveloped Quechua copper project in Peru to Glencore. The Quechua copper project is a green - field project with an estimated investment of about $1.29 billion and potential mineral resources of about 260 million tons [7][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still drags down credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing a moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market is limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle regulation again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. The new regulations for public funds have led to concentrated institutional selling, increasing short - term market volatility [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to reasonable pricing. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical center, suggesting that the market is not pricing in a rate cut next year, and futures are slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a catch - up increase [12]. - In the short term, the demand side remains weak, and the fundamentals still support the bond market. The Fed's faster - than - expected restart of balance - sheet expansion is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. But the expectation of domestic easing has not yet heated up, and the strength of allocation funds is still cautious. The crowded trading in Treasury bond futures may be the main cause of the sharp fluctuations. The continuation of the bond market's strength depends on the persistence of easing sentiment [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: Rumors of loose policies boosted the bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, ignoring the strong stock market [8]. - **Interest rate bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, mostly by about 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.835%, down 1.75bp [9]. - **Funding market**: Tax payment periods had little impact, and the inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The central bank had 1898 billion yuan in open - market maturities and injected 468 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, and funding rates declined slightly. The overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, and the 7 - day rate fell 0.65bp to 1.4423%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Looking back at 2025, "supportive" was the core tone of monetary policy implementation, and it is expected to continue in 2026. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly, and better use structural monetary policy tools to support key areas and weak links of the real economy. It will also explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions [13]. - After the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the general requirement of "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure", the market is highly concerned about the setting of the fiscal deficit ratio for next year. Market institutions and industry insiders generally expect the deficit ratio in 2026 to be no lower than this year's level of 4%. China will continue to implement a more active fiscal policy [13]. - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move", pointed out that insufficient aggregate demand is the prominent contradiction in current economic operations. It is necessary to implement the strategic plan for expanding domestic demand, form a complete domestic demand system, and expand consumer, investment, and financial demands. The key to expanding consumption is to promote employment, improve social security, optimize income distribution, and expand the middle - income group [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury bond futures**: Data on the trading of Treasury bond futures on December 17, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. - **Money market**: Information on the inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate, SHIBOR term structure and trend, etc., was presented, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [23][31]. - **Derivatives market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve were shown, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are generally prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the precious metal sector will continue to operate strongly. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their positions. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US economic, employment, and inflation situation on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. This week, focus on China's November economic data, the US November non - farm payrolls, and the central bank meetings of the EU, UK, and Japan [4]. - In the medium - term (2026), the continued strong operation of the global political and economic system restructuring and the abundant monetary liquidity environment will support the precious metal prices. The report predicts that the price of London gold will reach $4800 - 5000 per ounce, London silver will reach $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, London platinum will reach $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and London palladium will reach $1620 - 1700 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedge ratio, and conservative investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silver and platinum and short on gold [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metal Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Weak US employment market and retail sales data have boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Factors such as the shadow Fed factor, the tense situation in Venezuela, and the peak season for jewelry consumption have provided positive support for the precious metal sector. The abolition of the EU's 2035 fuel - vehicle ban has boosted the industrial demand expectations for platinum and palladium. The data shows that the intraday increase of the Shanghai Gold Index was 0.85%, the Shanghai Silver Index was 5.73%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index was 8.55%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index was 7.36% [4][5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: The continued strong operation of the global political and economic system restructuring and the abundant monetary liquidity environment will support the precious metal prices in 2026. However, the Trump 2.0 new - deal optimization and the decline in the intensity of Sino - US competition will suppress the upward momentum of gold prices. Silver, with stronger industrial attributes and higher volatility, will have greater upward momentum. The consumption and investment demand for platinum as a substitute for gold and silver will continue to increase. Palladium will basically follow the trend of gold, but the electrification transformation of the global automotive market is not favorable to its fundamentals [5]. 3.2 Main Macro Events/Data - **US Economic Data**: In November, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level in more than four years. In October, non - farm payrolls decreased by 105,000, the largest decline since December 2020. Federal government employment decreased by 162,000, the largest since June 2010. In October, retail sales were flat, after a 0.1% increase in September. In December, the preliminary value of the US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 53.0, the lowest since June, with both manufacturing and services PMIs declining [17]. - **Fed - Related Information**: White House economic advisor Hassett said that the Fed's independence is very important, and the US economy still has a lot of room to cut interest rates, which is the direction Trump has been pushing since he took office again. Trump will interview Fed Governor Waller for the position of Fed Chairman on Wednesday [17]. - **Venezuela Situation**: On the 16th, US President Trump ordered a full - scale blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. The US is strengthening its military presence in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, deploying F - 35A fighter jets and EA - 18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft to Puerto Rico [17].

Report Information - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot market is boosted by the demand for curing and enema, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend The supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend, and the demand elasticity before the Spring Festival still exists However, the concentrated second - fattening in October and the continuous release of production capacity form double supply pressure, which continues to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts, but the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent increase in northern epidemics has led to a low - level rebound following the spot market, with an increasing frequency of bottom oscillations [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 17th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened higher, then rose and fell back, and oscillated higher, closing in the positive territory The highest price was 11,550 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,435 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day The total index position increased by 10,993 lots to 361,611 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.60 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend until the first half of next year In October, the second - fattening and weight - retaining were concentrated, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is currently relatively high, slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% Currently, the overall completion progress of groups in multiple regions is slightly slow, and there is a certain increase in acquisition difficulty due to the reduction of some channels [7] - **Demand Side**: Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December With the continuous cooling of the weather, the curing and enema are increasing, the terminal consumer demand is rising, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises significantly supports the slaughter volume The slaughter volume and the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises have increased On December 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 195,000 heads, an increase of 4,200 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 29,000 heads [7] - **Policy Side**: China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products originating from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared with domestic consumption [7] 2. Data Overview - **Slaughter Volume**: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36% The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - **Breeding Profit**: As of December 11th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 146 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 11.5 yuan/head The average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 264 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 yuan/head [13] - **Breeding Cost**: As of December 11th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.09 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg The expected cost of purchasing piglets for fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 11.41 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg [13] - **Slaughter Weight and Proportion**: In the week ending December 11th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.63 kg, a decrease of 0.19 kg from the previous week The proportion of pigs slaughtered under 90 kg was 5.43%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous week The proportion of pigs slaughtered over 150 kg was 6.9%, almost the same as the previous week [13]