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建信期货集运指数日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:52
Group 1: General Information - Report title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - The spot freight rates have entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline this week. Considering the significant impact on foreign trade and the high supply of shipping capacity, the freight rates may be weaker in the off - season. The current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the decline range and rate. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot freight rates are in a downward trend. This week, the SCFIS dropped to 2180.17 points. The e - commerce platform quotes show that the August freight rates have been further reduced. The demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and it is advisable to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 11 to 15, the China export container shipping market continued to adjust, with most routes' freight rates falling. China's industrial added - value in July increased by 5.7% year - on - year. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped by 2.0%. In the European route, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index in August dropped to 34.7, and the eurozone economy also faces challenges. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports dropped by 7.2%. In the Mediterranean route, the freight rate dropped by 1.7%. In the North American route, the US PPI in July increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and the customs tariff revenue reached $28 billion, a 273% increase year - on - year. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports dropped by 3.5% and 2.6% respectively. The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has deteriorated. Israel's attacks on Yemen's ports have further intensified the conflict [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 1. Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on August 18 was 2180.17 points, a 2.5% drop from August 11. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1106.29 points, a 2.2% increase from August 11 [12]. 2. Futures Quotes of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 18 are as follows: for EC2508, the closing price was 2088.2, with a 0.30% increase; for EC2510, the closing price was 1373.1, with a 0.01% increase; for EC2512, the closing price was 1789.7, with a 2.30% increase; for EC2602, the closing price was 1537.9, with a 0.54% increase; for EC2604, the closing price was 1331.0, with a 0.27% decrease; for EC2606, the closing price was 1494.9, with a 0.55% increase [6]. 3. Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping European line futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates [13][17][18][21]
建信期货MEG日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:50
Report Information - Report Title: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 18th, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4383, with a high of 4383, a low of 4340, a settlement price of 4353, and a closing price of 4346, down 28 from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 91,926 lots, and the open interest was 128,989 lots [7]. - The current supply - demand structure is weak, and there is insufficient incremental support from the macro - level. It is expected that ethylene glycol may maintain a weak trend in the short term [7]. Industry News - Traders were cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Putin to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and crude oil futures gave up most of the previous day's gains. On Friday (August 15), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.80 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.68 - $64.15. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.99 or 1.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.73 - $67.06 [8]. - The spot negotiation price of the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4436 - 4437 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price for late August was 4436 - 4437 yuan/ton, and for late September was 4433 - 4435 yuan/ton. This week, the spot basis was at a premium of 90 - 91 yuan/ton over EG2509, the basis for late August cargo was at a premium of 90 - 91 yuan/ton over EG2509, and the basis for late September was at a premium of 87 - 89 yuan/ton over EG2509 [8]. - The prices of short - fiber factories were relatively stable, while the prices of traders increased slightly. Due to cost push, downstream demand was weak, and the on - site trading volume was scarce. The mainstream sales - to - production ratio of factories was 40.41% [8]. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including MEG futures prices, futures - spot price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:50
Report Overview - Report Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure in the egg market this year is significant, with the peak - season price callback reaching nearly 0.5 yuan/jin, compared to the usual 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin. The logic of price increase during the peak season is weakening, causing continuous declines in near - month contracts. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium and fallen below 3200 points. The futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg prices are reflected in subsequent replenishment data [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract fell 2.91% to 3098, the 2510 contract fell 2.51% to 3113, and the 2511 contract fell 2.64% to 3208. The national egg price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.28 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.47 yuan/jin, both up 0.17 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The peak - season price increase logic has weakened due to supply pressure and cold - storage egg outflows. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium. The futures market sentiment is low. The near - month contracts may be bearish in the long - term, and long - position opportunities are risky. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: The inventory of in - production laying hens is on the rise. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, down from 40.75 million in June and 41.68 million in the same period in 2024. The decline in July was the first year - on - year decrease this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend, and the current absolute value is close to the level of the previous three years. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the egg 09 and 10 contracts, the average price in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, and the egg - chicken breeding profit [12][13][16].
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:47
Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 7352 yuan/ton, closed at 7334 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.14%); Plastic 2605 opened at 7346 yuan/ton, closed at 7312 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.40%); Plastic 2509 opened at 7308 yuan/ton, closed at 7292 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.04%); PP2601 opened at 7073 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-0.49%); PP2605 opened at 7075 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.44%); PP2509 opened at 7051 yuan/ton, closed at 7026 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.51) [5] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market Performance: Futures prices fluctuated downward, suppressing the spot market atmosphere. Traders were eager to sell, but downstream factories' enthusiasm for replenishing stocks did not improve, mainly purchasing in small quantities at low prices [6] - Supply Side: Upstream device operating loads continued to increase. Although PP maintenance losses were still at a high level, with the restart of previously shut - down devices and few new maintenance devices, the impact of maintenance decreased and the expectation of new capacity expansion increased. PE had no new plans, and after the end of the centralized maintenance period, the operating load and output continued to increase. Next week, due to more shut - down and planned shut - down devices, the supply pressure was relatively neutral [6] - Downstream Consumption: The operating loads of agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP increased month - on - month. Some enterprises' orders improved, but the expectation for the peak season was weaker year - on - year [6] - Market Outlook: During the macro - window period, the market returned to fundamentals. A unilateral oscillation mindset was adopted. There was an expectation of improvement in supply - demand margins during the off - peak to peak season transition. Attention should be paid to the improvement of demand in the second half of the month and the actual support of inventory reduction [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, a 7.84% increase (60,000 tons) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 830,000 tons [7] - PE Market Price: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7430 yuan/ton, in East China was 7260 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market Price: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. There were both device startups and shutdowns, and the supply side was mixed. Production enterprises' quotes were mostly slightly increased, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The market was mainly a game between supply and demand [7] - PP Market Price: The PP market declined slightly. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6900 - 7020 yuan/ton, in East China was 6960 - 7080 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6880 - 7120 yuan/ton [8]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:46
Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report for US soybeans is unexpectedly bullish. Assuming the area estimate is reasonable, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has been mostly digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. The new - season US soybean market will only be slightly loose, and the CBOT soybean low may have been reached, with a future outlook of oscillating slightly stronger [6]. - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the external market. There have been frequent bullish factors recently. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted its imports, and high tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil are favorable for soybean meal. With the 23% tariff on US soybeans remaining until early November, China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybean prices are rising, and it may be difficult to avoid an increase in the cost of imported soybeans. Therefore, soybean meal is expected to remain strong in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For the soybean meal contracts, the 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3137, opened at 3145, reached a high of 3167, a low of 3123, and closed at 3155, up 18 or 0.57% with a trading volume of 1057425 and an open interest of 2063811, an increase of 48679. The 2509 contract had a previous settlement price of 3082, opened at 3090, reached a high of 3110, a low of 3068, and closed at 3100, up 18 or 0.58% with a trading volume of 363469 and an open interest of 462582, a decrease of 59411. The 2511 contract had a previous settlement price of 3113, opened at 3120, reached a high of 3142, a low of 3100, and closed at 3131, up 18 or 0.58% with a trading volume of 110364 and an open interest of 603346, an increase of 3323. The US soybean futures contract on the external market was oscillating, with the main contract at 1035 cents [6]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.379 billion pounds, slightly lower than the expected 1.38 billion pounds, and up from 1.366 billion pounds in June. The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 195.699 million bushels, higher than the expected 191.59 million bushels and up from 185.709 million bushels in June [15]. - From August 18 - 21, 2025, Pro Farmer will conduct its annual North American field survey. Researchers will measure in more than 2000 corn and soybean fields in seven states, and the results will be announced at 9:00 am Beijing time daily [15]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][14][20]
建信期货沥青日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:44
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - The asphalt market continues to have weak supply and demand with few highlights. The unilateral price mainly follows the weak trend of oil prices, but the trend may be stronger than that of oil prices. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil when the opportunity arises [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2510, the opening price was 3461 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3473 yuan/ton, the highest was 3497 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3452 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.06%, and the trading volume was 175,500 lots. For BU2511, the opening price was 3405 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3429 yuan/ton, the highest was 3450 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3405 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.00%, and the trading volume was 46,700 lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in Northeast, North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing markets have declined, while other regions remain stable. The weak trend of crude oil prices and asphalt futures has a negative impact on the sentiment of the asphalt spot market [6] - Supply: Jinling Petrochemical in East China may maintain low-load production in the near future. Jiangsu Xinhai has no clear restart plan after shutdown, and Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil. It is expected that the average operating load rate of asphalt plants will decline [6] - Demand: There is no obvious boost in demand. Rigid demand is restricted by funds and weather, market sentiment is pessimistic, and speculative demand is released cautiously [6] - Operation Suggestion: Go long on asphalt and short on crude oil when the opportunity arises [6] 2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3500 - 3870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures fluctuated and declined. The spot market sentiment remained bearish, and the overall rigid demand for asphalt was weak, leading to a decline in the prices of some asphalt brands and a lower market price [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3490 - 3530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The asphalt futures price continued to decline, the contract prices of some futures-spot traders' warehouses decreased, and the spot market sentiment was weak. With limited rigid demand, traders' spot quotes followed the decline [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][13][16]
建信期货棉花日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:44
Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was dated August 19, 2025 [2] Research Analysts - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The low - basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1300, but the quantity was scarce, and more quotes were above CF09 + 1300. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was mostly above CF09 + 1450, and the low - basis was in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1450 [7] - Seasonal peak season was approaching, downstream procurement and stocking increased, and market trading improved. Spinning mills still had large losses, but they were narrowing. The operation rate of spinning mills had not recovered, with inland spinning mills maintaining low operation, and inventory decreased. The price of pure cotton grey fabric market remained stable, downstream inquiries and shipments did not improve continuously, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. The overall operation rate of weaving factories increased slightly, and inventory slowly declined [7] - Overseas, the signing and sales data in the first week of the new year were okay, with buyers mainly from Vietnam and Bangladesh. CFTC fund net long positions remained at a low level, and the short - term external market was difficult to break out of the range - bound pattern. In the domestic market, approaching the new cotton listing period, the expected output of new cotton was stable with a slight increase. The current expected opening price of the market was around 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The industrial downstream improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn finished products decreased slightly, the operation rate of spinning mills remained stable, the grey fabric end mainly received small orders, and the overall demand improved slightly compared with the previous period. Before the new cotton was listed, Zhengzhou cotton might fluctuate and adjust around the expected opening price of cotton seeds, with limited short - term upside and downside space [8] Operation Suggestions - No specific operation suggestions were provided in the given content Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and textile products revenue was 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative revenue was 837.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month [9] - On August 14, Conab, the Brazilian National Supply Company, stated that Brazil's cotton output in the 2024/25 season was estimated to be 3.9348 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% (3.7011 million tons in 2023/24). The cotton planting area was estimated to be 2.0857 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% (1.9443 million hectares in 2023/24). The cotton yield per unit area was estimated to be 1,887 kg/hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9% (1,904 kg/hectare in 2023/24) [9] Data Overview - Multiple data charts were presented, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR), with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26]
建信期货股指日评-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:44
1. Report General Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), He Zhuoqiao (Macroeconomics and Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Macroeconomics, Treasury Bonds, and Container Shipping) [3] 2. Market Review and Future Outlook 2.1 Market Review - On August 18, the Wind All - A index rose 1.40% with over 4000 stocks rising. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed better, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closing up 1.52% and 1.69% respectively, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 closed up 0.21% and 0.88% respectively. Index futures underperformed the spot market, with IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts rising 0.78%, 0.31%, 0.72%, and 1.13% respectively [6] 2.2 Future Outlook - International: US and Russian leaders met in Alaska on the 15th, the meeting was "fruitful" but no agreement on a cease - fire in Ukraine was reached. Russia said the US had given up escalating pressure on Russia, and the key outcome was that the responsibility for cease - fire negotiations lies with Ukraine and Europe [8] - Domestic: July economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. Industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.1 percentage points, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, also with a 1.1 - percentage - point narrowing. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate showed a marginal decline. However, market expectations for economic recovery remain strong, especially for corporate performance repair after the "anti - involution" policy [8] - Market sentiment remained high. A - share trading volume reached 2.81 trillion yuan on August 18, a new high since October 9, 2024. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the Shenzhen Component Index exceeded last October's high. The margin trading balance continued to break through, and the medium - and long - term upward trend of the index remained good. The dumbbell strategy is maintained, with SSE 50 and CSI 1000 expected to perform better [9] 3. Industry News - The National Financial Regulatory Administration released the second - quarter 2025 insurance industry capital utilization data. As of the end of the second quarter, the balance of insurance company funds utilization exceeded 36 trillion yuan, a 17.4% year - on - year increase. Property insurance companies' funds utilization balance was 2.35 trillion yuan, and life insurance companies' was 32.6 trillion yuan. The balance of life and property insurance companies' investment in stocks and securities investment funds was 4.73 trillion yuan, a 25% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [28]
建信期货锌期货日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:37
Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The core contradiction of abundant zinc ore and refined zinc in the zinc market is more prominent during the off - season of demand, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The zinc market supply remains loose, and the demand is hard to improve substantially as it has not stepped out of the off - season. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the weak fundamental pattern is difficult to resonate with it. The Shanghai zinc has given back its previous gains, and the current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues. The domestic market is driven by the overseas market and is unlikely to fall deeply. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season for demand in the second half of the month, and the callback space of Shanghai zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations as the main trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc (2509) closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan, a decline of 0.80%, with reduced volume and positions, and the position was 69,630 lots. The 2510 contract closed at 22,360 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan, a decline of 0.82%, and the position increased by 5,691 lots to 96,755 lots. The 2511 contract closed at 22,360 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan, a decline of 0.84%, and the position decreased by 63,418 lots to 27,646 lots [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of zinc ore is loose, which pushes up the processing fee. The import zinc concentrate index is reported at 82.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the monthly average TC of domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remains stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices year - on - year drive the continuous expansion of smelters' profit margins, and smelters have sufficient production enthusiasm. The domestic refined zinc output in August may increase to 621,500 tons, and the supply side remains abundant. The downstream off - season characteristics are significant. Although there are demand - supporting policies, the weakness is hard to cover in the short term, and the operating load in the primary consumption field is still in a weak range [7] 2. Industry News - **August 18, 2025 Transactions**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 22,305 - 22,415 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was traded at 22,385 - 22,525 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was 22,235 - 22,345 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a discount of 20 - 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Honglu - v quoted at par to the 2509 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the high - price brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 60 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8] - **Regional Market Conditions**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 22,285 - 22,375 yuan/ton, and the regular brands in Ningbo quoted a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at par to the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,270 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded at 22,310 - 22,420 yuan/ton. 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 22,210 - 22,3320 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 22,950 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22,225 - 22,380 yuan/ton, and the mainstream brands quoted a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot [8][9] 3. Data Overview - Not elaborated in the provided content
建信期货生猪日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:33
1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 2.1 Pig Market - Futures: On the 18th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, closing with a negative line. The highest was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,500 lots to 185,851 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 18th, the national average price of ternary pigs was 13.64 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 2.2 Pig Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weak, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses have increased slightly. On August 18, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 140,400 heads, down 800 heads from the previous day and up 1,400 heads from a week ago [9]. - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly. The slaughter enthusiasm of the breeding side is high, the slaughter progress is fast, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remains high, and there are still secondary fattening pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates within a narrow range [9]. 2.3 Market Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of the breeding side increases, the current slaughter enthusiasm is okay, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply and demand remain relatively loose, and the spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9]. - Futures: Currently, the near - month 2509 contract of futures mainly fluctuates weakly following the spot. In the medium - to - long - term far - month view, the pig supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large. Currently, they are dragged down by the spot and are weakly correcting, but the initiatives for high - quality development against involution, strengthened environmental protection, and the peak demand season are favorable for the medium - to - long - term pig price performance, and the downside space may be relatively limited [9]. 3. Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 4. Data Overview - Profit per head: As of August 15, the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 101 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/head; the profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 52 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 yuan/head [14]. - Piglet price: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15 was 484 yuan/head, a decrease of 33 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - Slaughter volume: In the week of August 15, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 1.6335 million heads, a week - on - week increase of 30,100 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.88%. The average daily slaughter volume of daily slaughter samples was 138,446 heads, an increase of 1,321 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 0.96% [14]. - Planned slaughter volume: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase compared with July [14]. - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 15, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.82 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%, and an increase of 1.65 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.31% [14].