Report Overview - Report Date: January 15, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Report Core Views - The Zhengzhou Cotton futures market is experiencing a wide - range shock adjustment in the short term, awaiting new driving forces, while the medium - to - long - term positive trend remains unchanged [8] - The international cotton market has relatively balanced supply and demand, with a slight positive bias in the USDA monthly report [8] - The domestic cotton market shows a decline in the planned cotton - planting area in 2026, and the textile and clothing exports in December 2025 decreased year - on - year [8][9] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang is relatively high. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with few new orders, and the full - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, but some areas have started pre - holiday replenishment [7] - **Overseas Market**: The USDA monthly report lowered the US cotton production in the 2025/26 season by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons, and the global cotton production by 80,000 tons to 26 million tons, while increasing global cotton consumption by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons. The net long position of the CFTC US cotton fund has been rising, and the external market has recovered [8] - **Domestic Market Data**: As of January 13, 2026, the national cumulative inspection volume was 6.8473 million tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous day. The planned cotton - planting area in 2026 is 44.386 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In December 2025, the total textile and clothing exports were 25.992 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.9% [8] 2. Industry News - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 25.992 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative exports were 293.767 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9] - As of January 13, 2026, the national cumulative inspection volume was 6.8473 million tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous day, including 6.7654 million tons in Xinjiang and 46,500 tons in the inland areas [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [16][18][19]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - On January 13, the nickel price declined and adjusted following the sector. The main contract closed down 2.21% at 138,450 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by more than 11,000 lots to 400,000 lots [8]. - The prices of other products in the industry chain continued to rise. On January 13, the NPI quotation increased by 9.5 to 980.5 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price increased by 150 to 32,850 yuan/ton [8]. - In the medium term, the nickel price is expected to rise in the context of global resource competition and policy disturbances in Indonesia, gradually moving out of the bottom area [8]. - The statement from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has alleviated market concerns about supply shortages, but the Indonesian government may continue to hype the situation, and the nickel price is expected to have significant upward elasticity before the policy is finalized, with high market volatility [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On January 13, the nickel price dropped with the sector. The main contract closed at 138,450 yuan/ton, down 2.21%, and the total open interest decreased by over 11,000 lots to 400,000 lots [8]. - The prices of other products in the industry chain rose. The NPI quotation increased by 9.5 to 980.5 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price increased by 150 to 32,850 yuan/ton [8]. - In the medium term, the nickel price may rise due to global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances [8]. - The statement from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has eased supply shortage concerns, but the government may still hype the situation, and the nickel price is likely to be highly volatile before the policy is determined. Caution is advised, and risk control is necessary [8]. Group 5: Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand, setting the nickel production target at around 290 million tons to match smelter capacity [9]. - The government aims to adjust production quotas for nickel and coal to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves [9]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, but the government says the data is still being integrated to ensure the profitability of the downstream industry without heavy reliance on imports [10]. - Due to the lack of government approval for the 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining operations, but management expects the license to be approved soon, and the temporary suspension is not expected to affect the long - term sustainability of the joint venture. The impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoints - On the 13th, the night session of Shanghai Aluminum continued to rise to the 25,000 mark and then declined for adjustment. The closing price at the end of the session dropped 0.85% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 20,000 lots to around 770,000 lots. The high aluminum price suppressed downstream procurement demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared with the previous trading day. The discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were -60, -220, and -45 respectively. [7] - In the short term, the overall supply of aluminum increased slightly. New projects in China and Indonesia continued to ramp up production, driving up the daily average output. Although the shutdown of an aluminum plant in Mozambique was finalized, it would still operate at full capacity in the first quarter, and the market had basically digested this news. [7] - High aluminum prices suppressed terminal demand. Downstream enterprises generally adopted strategies of delaying procurement and consuming inventories, and the weekly inventory quickly accumulated and exceeded the 700,000-ton mark. [7] - The operation logic of the aluminum market was still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. As copper and gold prices rose significantly, funds continued to buy relatively undervalued resource products, which supported the aluminum price to be more likely to rise than to fall. [7] Industry News - 19 air-conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation work of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards, triggering market discussions. Due to the continuous rise in copper prices, the price difference between copper and aluminum was about three times. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum household air-conditioning products as soon as 2026, while others had no such plan. [10] - Lizhong Group said that its production and operation had been stable in recent years, and the overall capacity utilization rate had gradually increased. The second phase of the 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheel project in its Mexican factory, with a capacity of 1.8 million, had achieved initial production. The third aluminum alloy wheel factory in Thailand, with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast-rotated aluminum alloy wheels, was expected to be put into production next year. The high-performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, Thailand, and other places would be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. [10][11] - India's state-owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) planned to start the mining of the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support the expansion of its integrated aluminum business. It had awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increase in mining capacity, Nalco was expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which would increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons. [11]

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of shipping increased well in early January, and the SCFIS index rebounded above 1900 points on Monday, rising 8.9% to 1956.39 points. However, shipping companies have recently lowered their quotes for late January, and the inflection point of the spot price peak may appear. The index fluctuated greatly this week, and the 04 contract rebounded significantly. Short - term bullish factors may be difficult to disprove, and sentiment may support the contract to run strongly [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: In early January, the price increase was well implemented. On Monday, the SCFIS index returned above 1900 points, rising 8.9% to 1956.39 points. Shipping companies have recently lowered their quotes for late January. After the peak shipping season, they may cut prices to attract customers, and the inflection point of the spot price peak may appear. The index fluctuated greatly this week, affected by factors such as tax - refund rush shipping and the Red Sea situation. The 04 contract rebounded significantly, and short - term sentiment may support the contract [8] 2. Industry News - From January 5th to January 9th, the overall market of China's export container transportation was stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. In December 2025, China's official comprehensive PMI was 50.7, up 1 percentage point month - on - month. The manufacturing industry's production and demand recovered significantly, and the service industry's prosperity increased slightly. On January 9th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1647.39 points, down 0.5% from the previous period. In the European route, the eurozone's unemployment rate in November 2025 dropped to 6.3%. The shipping demand was stable, and the spot booking price increased slightly. In the Mediterranean, North American routes, the shipping demand was stable, and the booking prices also rose. On January 12th, the US and the UK launched large - scale military strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels warned of a strong response. In December 2025, many shipping companies announced price increases on multiple international routes. The Suez Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation in early December, but Maersk later denied it [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From January 5th to January 12th, the SCFIS European route (basic ports) index rose from 1795.83 to 1956.39, an increase of 8.9%; the SCFIS US - West route (basic ports) index rose from 1250.12 to 1323.98, an increase of 5.9% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Provided the trend charts of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European line futures [18] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Trend Charts - Provided trend charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][21]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current rise in zinc prices is mainly driven by the strength of gold and silver and sector sentiment, deviating from fundamental support to some extent. Although prices may remain strong in the short - term under the macro - environment, the constraints of environmental protection and the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand are accumulating, and the market should be vigilant against the callback risk caused by the decline of sentiment [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: In the futures market, for the 2601 contract of Shanghai zinc, it opened at 24,155 yuan/ton, closed at 24,200 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,600 yuan/ton, a low of 24,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 160 yuan, a rise rate of 0.67%, and the position decreased by 90 to 1,915. The 2602 contract opened at 24,215 yuan/ton, closed at 24,235 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,735 yuan/ton, a low of 24,035 yuan/ton, a rise of 205 yuan, a rise rate of 0.85%, and the position decreased by 5,011 to 68,022. The 2603 contract opened at 24,290 yuan/ton, closed at 24,280 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,785 yuan/ton, a low of 24,060 yuan/ton, a rise of 210 yuan, a rise rate of 0.87%, and the position increased by 9,828 to 111,306 [7] - **Market Situation**: A - shares ended 17 consecutive positive days, and the commodity market showed mixed performance. Shanghai zinc formed a long - upper - shadow positive candlestick, reaching a high of 24,735 yuan/ton during the day, then falling back in the afternoon, with the increase narrowing. The net short position slightly expanded, the Shanghai - London ratio weakened to 7.58, and the import loss of zinc ingots was 1,989 yuan/ton, with the import window remaining closed [7] - **Industry Fundamentals**: Domestically - produced ore remained tight, and the domestic weekly TC average price was flat at 1,500 yuan/metal ton. Although the import window for imported ore was open, due to low processing fees and weak purchasing sentiment, the transaction was difficult to improve. In December, the output of refined zinc decreased significantly month - on - month. Although the output in January is expected to rise slightly, the supply pressure is limited. On the demand side, environmental protection warnings in the northern region reappeared, combined with the seasonal off - season and high zinc prices, the downstream purchasing willingness was generally weak, and the spot premium declined [7] 2. Industry News - **Price Range on January 13, 2026**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,135 - 24,280 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan zinc was between 24,325 - 24,480 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,065 - 24,210 yuan/ton [8] - **Regional Market Quotes**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,165 - 24,280 yuan/ton, with a premium of 175 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract and a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were traded at 24,010 - 24,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Zijin zinc over the 2602 contract was 50 - 100 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 23,955 - 24,175 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [8][9] 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [11][17]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market currently faces supply pressure, especially in terms of inventory. However, there are signs of stabilization and recovery on the demand side, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may boost iron ore prices. It is expected that iron ore prices may remain resilient before the Spring Festival [10][11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market Performance - On January 13, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower and then rose rapidly, and oscillated downward in the afternoon, closing at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 0.24% [7]. - The trading data of other steel and iron ore futures contracts on January 13 are as follows: - RB2605: closed at 3158 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00%, trading volume of 837,879 lots, and a decrease in open interest of 38,760 lots [5]. - HC2605: closed at 3303 yuan/ton, down 0.09%, trading volume of 404,061 lots, and an increase in open interest of 12,752 lots [5]. - SS2603: closed at 13790 yuan/ton, down 0.54%, trading volume of 256,128 lots, and an increase in open interest of 1,464 lots [5]. - I2605: closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 0.24%, trading volume of 311,621 lots, and a decrease in open interest of 1,527 lots [5]. 3.1.2 Futures Market Positioning - The data of the top 20 long and short positions in the black - series futures on January 13 show that for the I2605 contract, the top 20 long positions were 407,433 lots with an increase of 2,991 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 436,454 lots with a decrease of 859 lots, with a long - short difference of 3,850 lots and a deviation of 0.91% [8]. 3.1.3 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On January 13, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.6 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning down and the D value continuing to decline; the red bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is narrowing [9]. 3.1.4 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased last week, while the arrivals continued to increase. Considering the end - of - last - year overseas shipment rush, the short - term arrivals are expected to remain at a high level [10]. - Demand: The total output of the five major steel products increased slightly last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the repair of steel profits. Although the production profits of rebar electric furnaces and hot - rolled coils are still negative, they are close to the break - even point, which boosts the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises to some extent. The subsequent sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Inventory: Steel mills are currently restocking as needed, and the inventory - available days decreased by 1 day to 19 days compared with last week. The restocking before the New Year's Day holiday was not obvious, and the restocking demand in mid - to - late January before the Spring Festival may boost iron ore prices. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, reaching nearly 1.63 billion tons, the highest since April 2018, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly in the future [11]. 3.2 Industry News - A group of more than ten former US financial officials issued a joint statement on the 12th criticizing the Trump administration's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that the Fed's independence is crucial to the US economy [12]. - On January 12, the US State Department issued a top - level warning through its "Virtual Embassy in Iran", asking all US citizens in Iran to "leave immediately". Trump also stated that any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff in any business with the US [12]. - China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China hopes and supports Iran in maintaining national stability, opposes interference in other countries' internal affairs, and hopes that all parties will do more to promote peace and stability in the Middle East [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple graphs related to the iron ore market, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between spot and May contracts, the shipping volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port trading volumes, steel mill inventory - available days, import sintered powder ore inventories, port inventories and port clearance volumes, sample steel mill tax - free hot metal costs, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mill inventories of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are relatively neutral, with both supply and demand in a weak - reality stage. The futures price of industrial silicon will maintain an expected range - bound oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The price of industrial silicon futures oscillated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,635 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.65%. The trading volume was 270,076 lots, and the open interest was 242,469 lots, with a net increase of 3,592 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net increase of 3,963 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 1,643 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices remained stable. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,300 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 was 8,900 yuan/ton; Sichuan 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. - **Outlook**: In Q1, the monthly average output is expected to remain at around 350,000 tons. Demand is weak. The operating rate of silicone remains stable without fulfilling the expected centralized production cuts. Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated stage of correcting from anti - involution to anti - monopoly. The industrial chain pressure is transmitted from the bottom up, and the monthly output decreases month - on - month. Industrial silicon inventory is high, production capacity concentration is low, the market performance is dull, and the spot price is weakly stable, making it difficult to break through the upward space [4]. 3.2. Market News - On January 13th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,128 lots, an increase of 240 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - On January 9th, the Ministry of Finance announced on its official website that starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%, and it was previously reduced from 13% to 9% starting from December 1st, 2024 [5].

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 14 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In December, the bond market fluctuated weakly. In January, negative factors are gradually materializing. After the initial stage of large supply - demand mismatch, the central bank is likely to provide support before the Spring Festival, which may lead to a low - level repair opportunity for Treasury bond futures, and bond yields may first rise and then fall in January. Currently, Treasury bond futures may stabilize at a low level [11][12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Large - scale maturity in the open - market led to tightened funds, suppressing short - term varieties. Long - term sentiment recovered, and the decline of A - shares caused a significant rise in 30 - year Treasury bond futures. Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 falling 1bp to 1.86% [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: Inter - bank funds tightened. There was 600 billion yuan of repurchase maturity, and the net repurchase withdrawal in the open - market was 257.6 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate rose 6.4bp to 1.39%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 5.7bp to 1.55%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.63 - 1.64% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The bond market may first face pressure from supply and credit impulse at the beginning of January, but after that, with the central bank's possible support, there may be a low - level repair opportunity. This week, with the release of economic data, pay attention to fundamental information. Currently, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market is being digested, and the current price may attract early - year allocation [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate the "15th Five - Year Plan" for circular economy development, aiming to improve resource utilization efficiency and support green - low - carbon transformation [13]. - The Fed's Williams believes the current economic situation is favorable, with no strong pressure to adjust interest rates. The labor market is stable, inflation may peak in the first half of 2026, and the US financial system is important globally [13]. - Chinese leaders emphasized supervision to ensure the implementation of major decisions, and China welcomes foreign investment to promote high - quality economic development [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including opening, closing, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume, and open interest of various Treasury bond futures contracts on January 13 are presented [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted - average interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate changes is provided [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves (average) is given [35].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy has shifted from anti - involution to anti - monopoly, breaking the strong cost - support logic. The adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic products is a further negative factor. With strict risk control by the exchange, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the spot price of polysilicon is at a high level, the fundamental performance is weak. The expected production of polysilicon in January is about 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream has entered a cycle of production cuts. The sharp rise in silver prices has squeezed the profits of photovoltaic main products, and terminal demand is in the off - season. The expected production of silicon wafers, cells, and components is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively. The spot inventory of polysilicon in the second week of January was 311,800 tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The futures price of polysilicon continued to decline. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,005 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.45%. The trading volume was 28,379 lots, the open interest was 48,844 lots, with a net increase of 14 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net increase of 172 lots, and the top 20 short positions had a net decrease of 279 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% [4]. 3.3 Market News - On January 13, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,460 lots, an increase of 30 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance's official website released an announcement on adjusting the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In November 2015, 2024, the export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products decreased from 13% to 9% [5].