1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The national carbon market price is under pressure and fluctuating. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [4][8] - Policies such as expanding the coverage of the national carbon market, implementing quota control and有偿分配, and strengthening the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market are expected to promote the development of the carbon market and the green - low - carbon transformation of industries [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Carbon Market Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a maximum of 59.30 yuan/ton, a minimum of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The total trading volume of national carbon emission allowances was 41,562,530 tons, with a total turnover of 1,988,434,330.99 yuan. From January 1 to October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 139,661,332 tons, and the turnover was 8,785,796,587.81 yuan. The carbon price has been declining since June and is now close to the 2021 opening price, more than 50% lower than the 2024 high [8] - According to the latest regulations, surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus allowances to 2025 by December 31, 2025, but need to apply before June 10, 2026 [8] - Fudan Carbon Index predicts the buying, selling, and middle prices of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and Chinese Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) for November and December 2025 [9] 3.2 Market News - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%. In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The high electricity consumption in the third quarter was due to high - temperature weather and economic recovery [10] - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to accelerate the green - low - carbon transformation of energy, including developing non - fossil energy, promoting the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and promoting the green - low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions in key industries are expected to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - The "Opinions on Promoting Green - Low - Carbon Transformation and Strengthening Carbon Market Construction" aims to expand the coverage of the national carbon market, implement quota control and 有偿分配, tighten quotas, strengthen the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market, and improve the vitality of the national carbon market [10] 3.3 Data Summary - The report provides multiple data charts, including the EU carbon price, power generation equipment growth rate, power generation growth rate, photovoltaic installation volume, and coal power plant daily consumption, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19]

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 工业硅月报 日期 2025 年 11 月 01 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃/纯碱） 驱动有限，区间操作 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Core View: Bullish factors are gradually digested, and oil prices are mainly bearish [5] Group 2: Market Analysis - OPEC+ Situation: OPEC+ production release is moderate, but member countries decide to continue increasing production, deepening concerns about market supply surplus. There is still a possibility of accelerated production increase. Kuwait's oil minister says OPEC is ready to increase production when demand rises. Saudi Arabia previously wanted to speed up production increase but was opposed by Russia. Iraq is negotiating its crude oil production quota [6][16][18] - Russia Sanctions: Russia is sanctioned again, leading to strong short - term market wait - and - see sentiment. Attention is on the implementation of later sanctions. Short - term, some purchases may shift to Middle Eastern countries [6][23][24] - US Crude Oil Production: US crude oil production grows slowly, and the growth space in the 4th quarter is relatively limited. The Dallas Fed survey shows weak exploration and development willingness and rising costs [6][25][27] - Macro - economic Situation: Sino - US trade negotiations are advancing, easing the macro - atmosphere to some extent, but the market reaction after the leaders' meeting is flat. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp, but the direct boost to oil prices is limited in the short term [6] - Supply - demand Balance: EIA and IEA significantly raise global crude oil supply expectations in their monthly reports. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the market inventory accumulation speed accelerates. The inventory accumulation in the 4th quarter of this year and the 1st quarter of 2026 is adjusted from 190/255 barrels per day to 265/300 barrels per day [6][40][42] Group 3: Market Performance in October - Price Trend: International oil prices reversed in a V - shape in October. At the beginning, prices fluctuated narrowly. After Trump's remarks on tariffs and sanctions, prices first fell and then rebounded. As of October 28, SC closed at 464.1 yuan/barrel with a 3.95% decline; Brent closed at $64.85/barrel with a 0.73% decline; WTI closed at $61.26/barrel with a 0.63% decline [13][14] Group 4: Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Outlook: Bullish factors are gradually digested. Under the pressure of oversupply, oil prices may decline again. The implementation of US sanctions on Russia needs attention. In the short term, the market may increase purchases of Middle Eastern crude oil, supporting relevant oil types and SC to strengthen relatively [52][53] - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, focus on long domestic and short foreign positions. In the medium term, maintain a bearish view, try short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to OPEC+ meetings [53]

Report Information - Report Title: Egg Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [1] - Key Words: Egg Market, Supply and Demand, Price Forecast Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: As of the end of October, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%, ending 9 consecutive months of growth. It is expected that the egg - laying hen inventory will remain high in the first quarter of the fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [6][22][38]. - Demand side: In October, egg sales were weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is unlikely to be concentrated, and overall demand is weak due to factors such as the substitution of vegetables and pork and market pessimism [6][33][38]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures, the upside is limited, and it is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. The fundamental inflection point may appear as early as the beginning of next year [6][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Price - Spot: In October, the spot price bottomed out and rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November as the market waits for accelerated elimination to balance high inventory [8]. - Futures: The main contract switched to the 12 - contract. The price followed the spot trend. It is recommended to treat the current rise as a rebound and consider short - selling at high prices. The fundamental improvement may take a long time [9]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Elimination of Laying Hens - Price: In October, the average daily price of Hy - Line Brown culled hens was 4.39 yuan/jin, continuing to decline from September and at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The price has been trending down since August [10][18]. - Quantity: As of October 30, the weekly culling volume has been stable in September - October, slightly higher than the previous three years. The culling age has advanced, and it is estimated that the culling volume will remain stable or slightly increase in November [18][20]. 2.2 Inventory and Replenishment - Inventory: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [22]. - Replenishment: In October, the monthly output of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, a decrease from September and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The replenishment enthusiasm may be affected by feed costs in the future [23]. - Laying Rate: In late October, the laying rate was about 91.94%, following the seasonal pattern [25]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - In October, the breeding profit was weak, at a very low level compared with the same period in previous years. It is expected to continue to operate at a low level in November [29][32]. 3. Demand Side - Sales Volume: In October, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas continued to be weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is expected to remain weak [6][33][38]. - Inventory: As of October 30, the inventory in the circulation link was at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory was still high, reflecting the weak demand this year [36]. - Substitute Prices: The pig price is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, currently at a low level. Vegetable prices are expected to rise seasonally in November - December, which may support egg prices [36][37]. 4. Later Outlook and Strategy - Spot: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November [40]. - Futures: It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. For options, a wide - straddle double - selling strategy is recommended. The risk lies in the unexpected rise of spot prices in low - price areas [40]. - Strategy: For farmers and spot traders, the spot price may fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures speculators, it is recommended to use interval rolling short - selling operations and pay attention to the spot price in low - price areas [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel industry is expected to experience a volatile and upward trend in the first and middle of November, but may decline again later in the month [5][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures (RB2601 and HC2601) first declined and then rebounded significantly. By the end of October, the RB2601 contract rose 34 yuan/ton or 1.11%, and the HC2601 contract rose 55 yuan/ton or 1.69% [20][21][23]. - The premium of hot-rolled coil over rebar first narrowed and then significantly widened in October, increasing from 181 yuan/ton at the end of September to 202 yuan/ton at the end of October [24][26][27]. 3.2 Analysis of Main Influencing Factors - In October, the social inventory of rebar turned to destocking after three consecutive months of accumulation, while the social inventory of hot-rolled coil reached a high and then declined. The seasonal demand for rebar recovered significantly, while its production remained at a low level since late February. The production of hot-rolled coil was still high, but its demand had a periodic trough. As a result, the price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar first narrowed and then widened [28][29]. - Since the end of September, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has significantly declined to a new low since mid-September. The average daily output of crude steel of large and medium-sized steel mills in the first and middle of October decreased compared with the same period in September but increased compared with late September. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products has generally strengthened to a new high since early May, except for a significant shrinkage in early October. The seasonal demand for steel continued to recover, leading to a significant destocking of rebar social inventory, but the social inventory of hot-rolled coil further increased due to high production and periodic low demand. It is expected that the steel demand in November may be high in the front and low in the back, and the steel price may be strong first and then weak [33][39][42]. - In the past four weeks, the production of rebar further declined, and the production of hot-rolled coil also turned to decline. The mill inventory of rebar turned to accumulation, while the mill inventory of hot-rolled coil continued to decline. This indicates that the spot market demand for rebar still needs to be improved, while the demand and supply of the hot-rolled coil market are relatively balanced. As a result, the premium of hot-rolled coil over rebar recovered to a relatively high level after narrowing in the first half of October [43][44]. - In October, the spot profits of blast furnace rebar and hot-rolled coil turned from profit to significant loss, the spot profit of electric furnace construction steel showed a slight expansion of the loss, and the disk profit of rebar showed a significant expansion of the loss. The main reason is that the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil first declined and then rebounded, while the spot price of iron ore continued to rise, and the spot price of coke increased twice, leading to a significant decline in the spot profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil. In the futures market, the steel futures rebounded after reaching a low, the iron ore futures rose again after a correction, and the coke futures rose significantly, resulting in a continuous decline in the overall disk profit of steel [45][47][49]. - Compared with January - August, the demand of the steel downstream industries in January - September showed different performances. The demand for construction steel such as rebar, represented by real estate development investment, has decreased for seven consecutive months. The demand for construction steel such as rebar, represented by the new housing construction area, has shown a narrowing decline after a slight expansion. The demand for manufacturing machinery steel, represented by the output of metal cutting machine tools, has increased for four consecutive months. The demand for real estate-related machinery steel, represented by the output of excavators, has shown a narrowing increase after a significant expansion. The demand for hot-rolled coil, represented by automobile production, has increased from stable to expanding, and the demand for cold-rolled coil, represented by household appliance production, has declined. In November, the seasonal demand for construction steel may be high in the front and low in the back, and the demand for industrial plate steel is expected to be relatively stable, which will contribute to the rise and then fall of steel prices in November [50][54][62]. 3.3 Future Outlook - With the improvement of the low-temperature weather in most parts of the north, the terminal demand is expected to improve. Although the social inventory of steel is significantly higher than in previous years, the improvement in demand may reduce the inventory pressure. - In the raw material market, the shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil and the arrivals at Chinese ports have increased by 3% - 4% month-on-month in the past four weeks, and the ports have continued to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected recovery of downstream steel profits, the price of iron ore has strengthened significantly. The production of coke by independent coking enterprises has significantly declined recently, and the coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, leading to the third round of price increases for coke spot at the end of the month. The coal price has generally increased due to the previous low-temperature weather in the north and stricter coal mine safety production inspections. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year-on-year decline of more than 6% from January to September, resulting in a significant jump in the spot price of coking coal. - Against the background of the easing of the geopolitical situation, the positive expectations brought by two major industry policies, combined with the relatively stable increase in the costs of coal, coke, and ore, have led to a significant rebound in black metal commodity futures. It is expected that the steel market will continue to show a volatile and upward trend after consolidation in the first and middle of November, but may decline again later in the month. Attention should be paid to the cooperation of the spot market and the positive cycle effect of the expected improvement in the steel market on the raw material market [63][64].

Report Information - Report Name: "豆粕月报" [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Report Theme: "升水修复，重新起航", "阶段性协议达成 豆粕谨慎偏强" [4][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Supply side: Important data such as the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans and the adjustment of the new-season yield per unit are unavailable due to the US government shutdown. Based on weather conditions, there is room for a downward adjustment of the new-season US soybean yield per unit, and the new-season US soybeans may experience a certain reduction in production. In late October, China and the US reached a phased trade agreement. If implemented as the US announced, US soybean export data is expected to return to normal levels, reducing the pressure on the ending stocks of new-season US soybeans. In Brazil, the new-season sowing is progressing orderly, with the possibility of a record-high yield. Global soybean supply is abundant due to Brazil's continuous output [7][62]. - Demand side: In October, the trading of soybean meal was lackluster, with a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Terminal demand is relatively stable, with high inventories of pigs and laying hens. Although there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, it does not affect the short - to medium - term demand for feed. Future demand may fluctuate periodically but is generally optimistic [7][62]. - Outlook: The 01 basis of spot ran at a low level in October and is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The agreement between China and the US is positive for CBOT soybeans, driving up the cost of imported soybeans in China and significantly boosting the price of soybean meal. Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude [7][62]. - Strategy: (1) For spot traders, the basis will fluctuate narrowly in November; (2) For futures speculators, the 01 contract should be treated with cautious bullishness [7][63]. - Important Variables: The implementation of China - US trade, the resumption time of US reports and the adjustment of yield per unit, and the weather in Brazil [7][63] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream: Planting and Export 3.1.1 Soybean Supply - US: Due to the government shutdown, the October USDA report is missing. According to the September report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, with a year - on - year decrease of 600,000 acres. The harvest area is about 80.3 million acres, with a year - on - year decrease of 580,000 acres. The yield per unit is adjusted from 53.6 bushels to 53.5 bushels. The ending stocks of the 25/26 US soybean season are 300 million bushels. Considering the relatively low harvest area and dry weather in the main producing areas from August to September, there is a possibility of a downward adjustment of yield per unit and production [9]. - South America: The USDA maintains the production of this season's Brazilian soybeans at 169 million tons, with an expected increase to 175 million tons in the next season. The production of Argentina is 50.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.69 million tons [9]. - Growth Progress and Good - to - Excellent Rate: As of September 28, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%. As of October 24, the US soybean harvest rate was estimated to be between 80% - 88%. As of October 25, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The planting rate in Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, reached 60.05% as of October 24 [10]. - Weather: The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the impact of previous weather will be reflected after the resumption of reports. The market is focusing on the weather in Brazil. Overall, the sowing progress of the new season is expected to be normal [10]. 3.1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - Brazil: The USDA expects Brazil to export 102.1 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season. In September, Brazil exported 7.398 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 21.2%. ANEC expects exports in October to be around 7 million tons. After the China - US phased agreement, Brazilian soybean exports may decline to a relatively low level [17][20]. - US: The USDA expects the US to export 51.03 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season. In July 2025, the US exported 1.751 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 17%. If China purchases US soybeans as announced, US soybean exports are expected to remain stable, but the actual situation remains to be observed [21]. 3.2 Midstream: China's Soybean Import and Crushing 3.2.1 China's Soybean Import - In September, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative soybean imports were 1086.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. It is expected that this year will break the record of soybean import volume. The procurement volume in the fourth - quarter shipping period is insufficient, and the port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then gradually decrease [30][32]. 3.2.2 China's Soybean Crushing and Inventory - Crushing Profit: In late October, the external CBOT soybeans fluctuated strongly, while the domestic soybean meal price was relatively weak, and the overall crushing profit weakened. As of October 30, the spot and disk crushing gross margins of Brazilian imported soybeans in November were - 207 yuan/ton and - 252 yuan/ton respectively; for US Gulf soybeans in November, the spot and disk crushing gross margins were - 237 yuan/ton and - 282 yuan/ton respectively [43]. - Crushing Volume and Operating Rate: As of the week of October 24, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 66.39%, and the actual crushing volume was 2.0485 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate and crushing volume will decrease in the future [43]. - Soybean Inventory: As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 6.9349 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week. The soybean inventory will remain high and enter the seasonal destocking stage after November [44]. 3.3 Downstream: Feed and Breeding 3.3.1 Trading and Inventory of Soybean Meal - As of October 24, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 940,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, the trading of soybean meal was lackluster. Terminal demand is relatively stable, and future demand is generally optimistic [49]. 3.3.2 Pig Breeding - Breeding Profit: As of October 31, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the profit per purchased piglet was - 179.72 yuan/head [53]. - Pig Slaughter: From October to December this year, the month - on - month increase or decrease rates of pig slaughter are expected to be 3.1%, - 0.4%, and 0.5% respectively. From now until May next year, it will be basically stable or slightly increasing [53]. - Feed Production: In September, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to September 2025, the total national industrial feed production was 246.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [54]. 3.3.3 Poultry Breeding - Broilers: At the end of October, the price of white - feather broilers was 7.26 yuan/kg, slightly stronger. The short - term market supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [58]. - Laying Hens: In October, the breeding profit continued to be weak. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [59]. 3.4 Later Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The basis of spot is expected to fluctuate narrowly in November. The agreement between China and the US is positive for CBOT soybeans, driving up the price of soybean meal. Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude [62]. - Strategy: (1) For spot traders, the basis will fluctuate narrowly in November; (2) For futures speculators, the 01 contract should be treated with cautious bullishness [63]. - Important Variables: The implementation of China - US trade, the resumption time of US reports and the adjustment of yield per unit, and the weather in Brazil [63]

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Fundamentals**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP for the seventh time this year and will end balance - sheet reduction by the end of the year. Sino - US leaders' meeting eases trade restrictions. In the domestic market, Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, September CPI dropped 0.3% year - on - year, industrial added value rose 6.2% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month, and retail sales increased 3.0% year - on - year. The USDA halted data updates due to a government shutdown. Supply may be slightly tight in 2025/26 after the contraction of the high - yield expectation. Seed cotton acquisition costs are 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the processing progress is slower than last year. Cotton commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. In September 2025, cotton imports continued to rise month - on - month, with 680,000 tons imported from January to September, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease. In October, the textile market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. Terminal domestic textile and clothing consumption is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved after the tariff cut delay [6][57]. - **Outlook**: In November, during the peak processing period of Xinjiang cotton, trading may slowly rise due to a slight increase in production and hedging pressure. The acquisition price of seed cotton has rebounded, increasing processing costs and expected hedging pressure levels. Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. Market expectations for new - year cotton demand have improved [6][57]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads, and buy call options [6][57]. - **Important Variables**: Listing progress, industrial policies, and macro - policies [6][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main US cotton contract showed a V - shaped trend, with a 0.9% monthly decline. Due to the US government shutdown, multiple data stopped updating, and US cotton followed Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton rose after a decline in October, with a 3.4% monthly increase. The expected cotton production in the new year decreased due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang. The acquisition price of seed cotton rebounded, boosting the market, but there is still hedging pressure [10]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report adjusted the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand situation. US production increased by 0.2 million tons, India's ending inventory increased by 48,000 tons, China's ending inventory decreased by 229,000 tons, and Brazil remained unchanged. Globally, production increased by 231,000 tons to 2.5621 billion tons, trade volume increased by 52,000 tons to 1.9031 billion tons, consumption increased by 183,000 tons to 2.5872 billion tons, and ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 1.5924 billion tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [12]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 New - Year Production Estimate - In September 2025, the China Cotton Association predicted an increase in national cotton production. The national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the expected total output was 7.278 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. Xinjiang's output was 6.972 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase, while the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins saw output declines [17]. 3.3.2 Cotton Acquisition and Processing - As of late October, cotton picking and acquisition in Xinjiang were progressing smoothly. Due to lower - than - expected yields in southern Xinjiang, acquisition prices rose, with northern Xinjiang at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg and southern Xinjiang at 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. As of October 30, 2025, the national cumulative inspection was 1.68 million tons, with 1.6636 million tons in Xinjiang [19]. 3.3.3 Inventory - In mid - October, commercial cotton inventory was 1.7202 million tons, up 698,500 tons from the end of last month, and industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, down 36,200 tons. Commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. Industrial inventory decreased slightly, and yarn and fabric inventory days also decreased [23]. 3.3.4 Cotton Import Volume - In September 2025, 95,000 tons of cotton were imported, a 22,300 - ton year - on - year decrease and a 22,300 - ton month - on - month increase. From January to September, 680,800 tons were imported, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.3.5 Textile Enterprise Processing - As of October 24, spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.4 days, unchanged from last week; yarn inventory was 27.8 days, up 0.3 days; weaving mills' yarn inventory was 7.7 days, down 0.2 days; and cotton fabric inventory was 31.6 days, up 0.3 days. The yarn and fabric load indexes were 51.4% and 51.9% respectively. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was dull [30]. 3.3.6 Textile Demand - In September 2025, retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 123.1 billion yuan, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, cumulative retail sales were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.4 billion US dollars, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, cumulative exports were 221.7 billion US dollars, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. Domestic demand is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved [46]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook The content is the same as the core views of the report [6][57].

Report Details - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors show positive signals from Sino-US meetings and economic and trade consultations. Palm oil faces pressure due to strong production increase expectations in major producing areas, slowing export data, and expected inventory increases, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. Soybean imports are expected to decrease after November, and soybean oil may turn to inventory reduction. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the progress of Sino - Canadian relations, with domestic spot basis remaining stable and strong and continuing the inventory reduction trend. Short - term is seen as volatile adjustment, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review** - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 390; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 320. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 480; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 400. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: In November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil by Dongguan traders remains stable: 24 - degree palm oil in Dongguan factories is 01 - 80 [7] - **Operation Suggestions** - Short - term: View as volatile adjustment. Long - term: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast** - Rabobank expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the USDA's current forecast of 175 million tons [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Data** - From October 1 to 24, Brazil's soybean export volume was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Sowing Progress** - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Paraná state, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent and good rate is 98%, and the general - rated proportion is 2%. 28% of the soybeans are germinating, 1% are in the flowering stage, and 71% are in the vegetative growth stage [9][10] - **Global Soybean Production Forecast** - The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 428 million tons, lower than the September expectation of 428.7 million tons and last year's 428.6 million tons. The US soybean production is adjusted down to 116 million tons, and Brazil's is expected to be 177 million tons [10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and some price spreads and exchange rate data. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term market is gradually digesting the bullish factors of sanctions and Sino - US negotiations. Without further support, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a bearish outlook [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI (main contract) opened at $60.18, closed at $60.36, with a high of $61.02, a low of $59.7, a daily increase of 0.35%, and a trading volume of 25.06 million lots. Brent (main contract) opened at $63.9, closed at $64.3, with a high of $64.7, a low of $63.38, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 43.48 million lots. SC (main contract) opened at 461.5 yuan/barrel, closed at 458.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 466.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 45 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.07%, and a trading volume of 10.87 million lots [6]. - **Market Analysis**: EIA data showed that as of the week of the 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and gasoline and diesel inventories also declined. Overnight oil prices rebounded slightly. On the morning of the 30th, Sino - US leaders held direct talks, but the market reaction was muted [6]. 2. Industry News - **US President's Statement**: President Trump said that a very large - scale agreement might be reached, involving the purchase of oil and gas from Alaska [7]. - **Shell's View**: Shell CFO believes there is a credible scenario of oil supply surplus in 2026 [7]. - **ANZ Bank's Forecast**: ANZ Bank expects OPEC+ to approve an additional supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December due to increased risks to Russian supply [7]. - **US Sanctions**: On October 29, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major Russian oil companies - Lukoil and Rosneft, along with their 34 subsidiaries. US citizens and enterprises are prohibited from trading with them, and entities with over 50% ownership are automatically restricted. These sanctions echo those of the UK on October 15 and the EU on October 23, which include a ban on short - term contracts for importing Russian LNG from April 2026 and a full - scale long - term ban from 2027 [7]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: Bloomberg, EIA, and wind, along with the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][11][13] - **Data Charts**: Include global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [12][13][18]

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On October 30, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures 2601 rose slightly and then gave back some of the previous day's gains [7] - The closing prices of coke J2601 and coking coal JM2601 were 1786.5 yuan/ton and 1288 yuan/ton respectively, with daily price changes of -0.59% and -1.62% [5] - The KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise, showing a potential dead - cross. The MACD red bar of the coke 2601 contract narrowed, while that of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to expand slightly [10] - The spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao, Qingdao, and Tianjin ports remained unchanged at 1570 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Handan increased by 50 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable [10] 1.2 Future Outlook - Policy: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a new draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with stricter replacement ratio requirements. Tangshan planned a 30% blast furnace production limit from October 27 for 4 days due to environmental protection [11] - Fundamentals: Recent coke production from independent coking enterprises and steel producers has declined. Coke inventories at ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to a demand for the third round of price increases, expected to be implemented by the end of the month. Cold weather in northern regions and stricter coal mine safety inspections have pushed up coal prices. Coking coal port inventories are low, and although imports have recovered, the January - September imports are still down by over 6% year - on - year, causing a significant jump in coking coal spot prices [11] - Outlook: Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue their upward trend, supported by positive news and the spot market. After a short - term sharp rebound, there may be a phased correction, but the overall upward trend is difficult to reverse. Future attention should be paid to the impact of rising temperatures on coal demand and the positive cycle effect of steel market profit recovery on the coal - coke market [12] 2. Industry News - Sino - US Trade: On October 30, the US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% tariff for another year. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and reach consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation and expanding agricultural product trade [13] - Carbon Market: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will accelerate the construction of the national carbon market, including expanding the coverage, implementing quota control and paid distribution, tightening quotas, and promoting the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [14] - Steel Company Performance: In Q3 2025, Baosteel's revenue was 81.064 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.83%, and net profit was 3.081 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 130.31%. Shagang's revenue was 3.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.66%, and net profit was 75.5324 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5518.37%. Shandong Steel's revenue was 18.022 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.74%, and net profit was 127 million yuan [14] - Coal Company Performance: In Q3 2025, Shanxi Coking Coal's revenue was 9.122 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.84%, and net profit was 420 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 52.24%. Lu'an Huanneng's revenue was 7.031 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.83%, and net profit was 206 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 63.96%. Shaanxi Coal's revenue was 40.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.91%, and net profit was 5.075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.59%. Dayou Energy reported a loss of 1.122 billion yuan in the first three quarters [14] - Other News: Vietnam launched an anti - circumvention investigation on Chinese hot - rolled coils; Australia and Thailand launched anti - dumping and anti - circumvention investigations on Chinese steel products; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1; Anglo American's metallurgical coal production in Q3 2025 was 1.884 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%; Glencore's coal production from January - September 2025 was 98.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%; the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies [13][15][16] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average hot metal production, coke and coking coal inventories at ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [18][22][23][30][32]