Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - This week's pulp futures prices reached a new high since April, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton on the 23rd, showing a wide - range volatile trend as expected. The main influencing factors include foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. [2] - It is expected that the pulp futures prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range next week, with a possibility of a high - level decline. [3] - In the short - term, the futures prices are affected by the capital side, and the fundamentals are slightly stronger than before, with some support at the bottom. In the long - term, the impact of near - term warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, while the supply of long - term warehouse receipts is uncertain, which brings some positive factors. The macro - sentiment may weaken due to the possible halt of the Fed's interest - rate cut process, but there may be positive policy factors in the domestic market. [4][5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors this week are foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. The futures prices reached a new high, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton. Suzano's price increase in the Asian market in January and the RMB breaking 7 provided cost support and positive sentiment, respectively. Capital fluctuations led to wide - range volatility. [2] - From the fundamental perspective, China's pulp port inventory decreased by 8.7 tons this week, which is a significant de - stocking and is one of the reasons for the high - level volatility of futures prices. [2] - In terms of terminal demand, the operating rates of downstream paper types showed mixed changes, and the demand was relatively weaker than last week. The import price of softwood pulp increased by 0.02%, with a further narrowing of the increase, which still has a supporting effect but is difficult to drive the futures prices up further. [2] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not detailed in the document 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management of enterprises with high inventories of pulp and offset printing paper, it is recommended to short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5500 - 5600 for pulp and 4350 - 4400 for offset printing paper. [9] - For procurement management of papermaking enterprises with low inventories, it is recommended to buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5000 - 5100 for pulp and 4000 - 4100 for offset printing paper. [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The RMB breaking 7, Suzano's price increase of 20 dollars in the Asian market in January, and the further decline of port inventory [14] - **Likely Negative Information**: The relatively high valuation of futures prices and the shutdown plan of leading paper enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 [13] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The pulp price shows a range - bound trend, with the main contract range of [5550, 5650]. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations in the futures market, with a small amount of high - short strategies, and to wait and see for options. Temporarily wait and see for basis and arbitrage strategies. [13] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The SP2605 contract continued to fluctuate in a wide range this week. The RSI indicator once reached the over - bought range and then declined. Currently, the technical indicators are slightly bearish. [20] 3.2 Base and Spread Structure - Not detailed in the document Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 4.1 Supply - On December 26th, the inventory was 190.6 tons (- 8.7), which is a significant de - stocking and has a positive effect. The warehouse receipts have reached an absolute low compared to the same period. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp has gradually converged to a normal level, which is positive. [32] - In November, the domestic monthly import volume of softwood pulp was 81.99 tons, an increase from October. The global pulp shipment volume to China increased by 3.85% month - on - month in November, which will put pressure on future de - stocking. [32] 4.2 Demand - The downstream finished paper inventories of enterprises continue to accumulate, and the profit margins have declined this week, which restricts the raw material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises. [32] - The operating rates and production of various types of finished paper show different trends, and the export and consumption also have their own characteristics, which are presented in the corresponding seasonal charts. [68][73][76][82]

南华期货原油产业周报 ——地缘驱动，油价低位震荡 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月29日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周原油市场的核心矛盾在于短期地缘风险溢价抬升与基本面偏弱之间的博弈。一方面，委内瑞拉相关船只 遭美方封锁、特朗普再度强化对马杜罗政权的施压，以及俄乌冲突中谈判进展有限、炼厂设施遭袭，均推升 了短期供应扰动与风险溢价，支撑油价偏强运行。另一方面，从价格表现看，WTI与Brent周度涨幅有限，反 映市场对地缘事件的持续性与实质性影响仍持谨慎态度。在全球需求弹性不足、供应端尚未出现系统性收缩 的背景下，地缘风险更多体现为情绪性支撑，尚难推动油价形成趋势性上行。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 原油波动率和VIX source： wind,南华研究,彭 ...

南华期货铜产业周报 ——持仓创新高，多空资金博弈加剧 南华有色金属研究团队 傅小燕 投资咨询证号：Z0002675 联系邮箱：fxiaoyan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/12/28 第一章 核心矛盾与策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周美国初请失业金人数小于预期，降息概率小幅下修。据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个 基点的概率为17.7%，维持利率不变的概率为82.3%。数据还表明，到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为 45.6%，维持利率不变的概率为46.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.7%。但市场并未过多解读。CFTC持仓 显示，Comex铜投机净多头资金继续增仓，价格顺势大涨。 基本面上，上游冶炼企业采购情绪较强，但中游电解铜买卖双方购销情绪偏弱，因为下游加工企业采购畏高 情绪仍在，实际成交量偏少，甚至有企业开始"躺平"，现货价格涨幅受限。LME铜注销仓单仍维持在 50000吨上下，局部供应紧张支撑中国保税区铜溢价回升，目前出口窗口依然打开。 CSPT不对2026年一季度设定现货采购指导价，打破往年惯例，表明当前铜价已超出企业认知，一季 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of overseas propane and crude oil. Recently, the domestic PG has been affected by both current and expected factors. The current domestic fundamentals are moderately strong with continuous inventory reduction at ports and high PDH operation rates. However, in the future, overseas supply remains resilient, and domestic PDH profits are under significant pressure, with some enterprises expected to undergo maintenance. There is still short - term support, and marginal changes should be monitored [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: The international crude oil market is volatile. It faces the pressure of oversupply and is continuously affected by geopolitical risks. This week, it continued to rebound at the beginning of the week due to the US - Venezuela issue and was mostly volatile in the second half of the week [1] - Overseas propane: The overseas propane market is relatively strong. In the US, shipments were low this week due to fog and holidays, and in the Middle East, the shipment volume remained at a low level, with the tight supply situation continuing. This week, FEI and CP prices continued to rise, with FEI premium at 18.75 and CP premium at 50, indicating structural support in the international market [1] - Domestic fundamentals: The domestic supply side saw a low arrival volume this week, and port inventories continued to decline. On the chemical demand side, the PDH operation rate increased to 76.32% this week, but the industry has been in a deep loss state. There are rumors that some PDH enterprises plan to undergo maintenance, and the actual maintenance situation should be monitored [1] 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Volatility. The price range for PG02 is 3800 - 4400 [20] - Basis strategy: Volatility [20] - Recent strategy review: Go short on PG2 - 3 spread at high prices; Hold the position of buying PP and shorting PG, as PDH is in a continuous loss state. Pay attention to the negative feedback. It is expected that some enterprises will undergo maintenance in the first quarter. Pay attention to widening the spread between 05PP and 03PG [20][21] - Monthly spread strategy: Volatility. Go short on the spread at high prices [23] - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the internal - external price difference and widen the PP/PG price ratio at low prices [23] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: The price range is 3800 - 4400, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 18.73%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility (3 - year) is 21.34% [22] - Hedging strategy: For inventory management, when inventory is high and worried about price decline, short PG2602 futures to lock in profits and sell call options (PG2601C4400) to collect premiums. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy PG2602 futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (PG2602P3900) to collect premiums [22] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Overseas supply remains tight, and prices are strong, providing relative support. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively strong, with port inventories declining again after the decrease in arrival volume, and short - term PDH demand remaining stable, with the operation rate rising to 76.32% this week [24] - Bearish information: PDH is in continuous loss, and there are still expectations of maintenance [25] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - On December 31, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting; On December 31, China's December PMI will be released [29] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The PG02 contract fluctuated and rose this week. The net position of the main profitable seats decreased slightly; there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list; the net short position of the profitable seats increased slightly; the net long position of foreign capital increased slightly, and the net short position of retail investors increased slightly. Technically, PG02 was mostly volatile this week, oscillating between 4000 - 4200 on the daily chart [27] - Overseas market: FEI M1 closed at $522/ton (+$10), with a premium of $18.75/ton; CP M1 closed at $514/ton (+$10), with a CP premium of $50/ton; MB M1 closed at $342/ton (+$4). This week, the swaps rebounded in tandem with the rebound of crude oil, and the shipments from the US and the Middle East continued to be at a low level [33] 3.3.2 Basis - Monthly Spread Structure - Domestic: The monthly spread of LPG still showed a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 monthly spread at 158 yuan/ton (+39) [31] - Overseas: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $21.54/ton (+$1.54); the CP M1 - M2 spread was $5.66/ton (-$0.87); the MB M1 - M2 spread was $1.3/ton (unchanged) [42] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Upstream profit: This week, the main refinery's gross margin was 664 yuan/ton (+50), and the Shandong local refinery's gross margin was 428 yuan/ton (-43). The profit fluctuated little this week [48] - Downstream profit: The PDH profit based on FEI cost was - 346 yuan/ton (-73), and the PDH profit based on CP cost was - 529 yuan/ton (-44). PDH has been in continuous loss. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 81 yuan/ton (-1), the isomerization profit was - 252 (+13), and the alkylated oil profit was - 469 yuan/ton (+41). The recent profit fluctuations were small [50] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - This week, the overseas spot price strengthened again, while the domestic imported gas price remained stable, compressing the import profit again [53] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - US supply - demand: This week, the production decreased slightly, demand was weak recently, and exports were low due to fog and holidays. Overall, inventory was slowly decreasing. From January to November, the US exported a total of 62,703 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%, with 9,693 kt shipped to China, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [56][63] - Middle East supply: From January to November, the Middle East exported a total of 44,850 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%, with 19,238 kt shipped to India, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%, and 16,833 kt shipped to China, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In November, domestic demand in the Middle East was strong, and shipments were generally low. Weekly data showed that Middle Eastern shipments have remained low in recent weeks [66] - Indian supply - demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and LPG imports were 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, with demand and imports remaining high [71] - South Korean supply - demand: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious, with most used in the chemical industry. From May to September, South Korea's LPG imports remained high. There was some re - export demand in May and June, and the propane cracking profit was better than that of naphtha from July to September, providing support at the cracking end. Currently, the propane cracking profit is still better than that of naphtha, and imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level. Some cracking maintenance has continued until December, and the cost - effectiveness of LPG cracking has decreased. South Korea's LPG imports in November increased slightly compared to October but were still at a low level, and the import volume has recently rebounded [82] - Japanese supply - demand: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is relatively obvious. It is expected that imports will increase as the weather gets colder. After restocking in August, imports decreased in September, and overall, imports in August and September were moderate. Imports increased again in October. Normally, the average monthly import volume from November to February of the following year is around 1,000 kt [90] 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - Domestic supply - demand balance: Supply: With high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external supply volume is not high; from the shipping data, the import volume is not expected to be high. Demand: Based on profit and seasonal performance, chemical demand is decreasing, and combustion demand is increasing. Overall, the chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected. Inventory: Overall, inventory is decreasing, mainly at ports [94] - Domestic supply: The operating rate of main refineries was 75.11% (unchanged), the operating rate of independent refineries was 56.22% (+0.32%), the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries was 52.32% (+0.35%), the domestic LPG external sales volume was 52.44 tons (+0.61), and the arrival volume was 31.3 tons (-36.4). In terms of inventory, the factory storage capacity utilization rate was 24.06% (+0.41%), and the port inventory was 233.73 tons (-27.34) [97] - Domestic demand: PDH demand: Juzhengyuan and Shandong Binhua restarted and increased production. This week, Shandong Chengtai and Yuhuang Shengrong continued their maintenance. The internal - external price difference continued to shrink. MTBE demand: The operating rate and export situation need attention. Alkylation oil demand: Hubei Yuchu restarted this week, and others continued as before. Combustion demand: Attention should be paid to the sales - production ratio in different regions [107][110][116]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of the 01 contract of apple futures is likely to continue rising and may reach or exceed the level of the 12 contract due to reduced supply and fewer deliverable fruits [1][2] - The subsequent factor determining apple prices will shift from supply to consumption, and there is a risk of the traditional peak - season being lackluster due to changes in consumption structure [1] - The 05 contract has room for future price increases as good - quality apples are scarce, despite recent price retracements [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction for the 01 contract is its final closing price. With this year's apple production reduction and quality decline, fewer deliverable fruits are supporting the price increase [1] - The uncertainty lies in whether the upcoming Spring Festival consumption season will be good or bad, as there are concerns about weak consumption and the "bad money driving out good" situation [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The upward momentum of apples has fluctuated recently. Last week, apple futures prices were oscillating strongly, with more significant retracements in the far - month contracts. The net long position decreased to 5232 lots [5] - The basis strategy is difficult to formulate due to the difficulty in determining the spot target, and the month - spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 15.1% over three years [8] - For inventory management, when worried about a bumper apple harvest and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (AP2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton and sell call options (AP2603C) with a 25% ratio at 100 - 120 yuan/ton [8] - For procurement management, when worried about rising apple prices, enterprises can buy apple futures (AP2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton and sell put options (AP2603P9) with a 75% ratio at 160 - 200 yuan/ton [8] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of December 24, steel - union data showed that the national apple cold - storage inventory was 744.04 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.94 million tons; while Zhuochuang data showed 702.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.06 million tons [11] - In the market, inquiries for late - Fuji apples increased in the second half of the week, but the transaction of farmers' apples was still limited. The consumption in the Guangdong market improved slightly, but there was pressure in daily vehicle - load digestion [11] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Zhuochuang and steel - union will release weekly inventory data every Thursday [14] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures oscillated with little overall change, and the near - month contracts were slightly stronger. The position of the main 05 contract decreased seasonally and was lower than last year's level. Profitable seats reduced their positions last week [14] - Technically, the 01 contract of apple futures was strong at a high level, showing an obvious bullish trend, while the 05 contract was weak and needed time to adjust [14] 3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - The basis structure of apples is complex due to inconsistent apple quality each year and different grading conditions in Shandong and the northwest regions. The futures delivery rules are also constantly changing [16] - The 1 - 5 spread has strengthened since December, driven by the near - month delivery logic. The shortage of deliverable fruits has pushed up the price of near - month contracts and the spread, which may further widen before entering the delivery month [16] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. This year, storing apples is challenging due to more low - quality fruits and fewer high - quality ones [18] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Affected by spring hot - dry winds and rainy weather during the harvest period, this year's apple production and quality have significantly declined. Zhuochuang estimates the 2025 apple production to be about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year [20] - Based on the current warehousing situation, inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be even lower due to more inferior fruits [20]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term methanol market fundamentals are weak. After the previous port unloading issue was resolved, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has resurfaced. Inland, after the restart of Jiutai and the increase in freight rates, the inland demand is met by the port, leading to inventory accumulation and price cuts. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics decreases, and factories want to reduce inventory through price cuts. Attention should be paid to the turning points in the inland market, such as concentrated bearish sentiment or the start of inventory reduction. The port is concerned about MTO profits due to poor downstream performance, but MTO's own profits are still acceptable, and Fude may return before the festival. The main negative factor is the upcoming port inventory accumulation, which may last until mid - January, reaching a level of 160. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract when the price is between 2050 - 2100 [3]. - The near - term trading logic is the enhanced willingness to hold goods due to the shutdown of Iranian plants. The long - term trading expectation is that the key point for methanol is how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract will be stronger than the 2601 contract, with the 1 - 5 spread in a reverse arbitrage situation, and the process is affected by macro sentiment [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term market fundamentals are weak. Port inventory accumulation is expected, and inland inventory is also increasing with price cuts. Attention should be paid to inland turning points and port MTO profit concerns. The main negative is port inventory accumulation, but there are still positive factors in the future, such as Fude's restart, a sharp decrease in Iranian imports, and a reduction in non - Iranian imports, which may lead to port inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at 2050 - 2100 [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2120. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 01 base spread remained stable [12]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: This week, with the shutdown of Iranian plants, the 1 - 5 spread was in a positive arbitrage situation [13]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol will fluctuate in the short - term. The short - term operating range of methanol 2601 is 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the position of selling put options on methanol 2601 and sell call options at the same time [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the inland area are presented, including the inventory of the northwest region, southern and northern lines, and the national factory - level inventory, as well as the weekly pending orders of Chinese methanol enterprises [21][25][28]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the port area are presented, including the weekly inventory of Chinese ports, the inventory of different provinces, and the inventory of various warehouses in Jiangsu. In addition, data on the shipping volume and arrival volume of methanol are also provided [36][44][50]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years [61]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including using futures, put options, and call options, with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [61]. - **Positive Information**: The 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong Phase II started in December, and the goods will be available after the post - festival device approval is completed [62]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, 1.25 million tons in November, and 0.26 million tons in December [63]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The fundamental support is average. Although the production area factories have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics, they still intend to maintain low inventory and mainly reduce prices to sell goods in the first half of the week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and some traders are short - selling. The market in the sales area is also declining [65]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland area, after the restart of Jiutai's methanol plant, the expected demand for olefins will shrink in the future, and the upward momentum of methanol in the northwest region will be limited. In the sales area, the logic of demand growth is clear. Yangmei Hydrocarbon plans to restart at the beginning of December, and Lianhong's new olefin project is expected to start in early December. After the arbitrage space between the port and Henan to northern Shandong is closed, the local supply in the sales area will be limited, and the supply - demand tight situation will be more prominent. The price support in the southern sales area is strong and is expected to continue to be stronger than that in the northern production area [66]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuated, mainly because of the increase in Iranian shipments [68]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Price Tracking - The prices of upstream coal (such as Ordos pit - mouth coal price and Qinhuangdao port coal price) and downstream methanol (such as methanol in Lunan and Taicang markets) are tracked. In addition, data on the number of warehouse receipts and methanol valuation are also provided [71][72][81]. 3.4.2 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Profit Tracking - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia, natural - gas - based in Chongqing, and coke - oven - gas - based in Hebei) are tracked, as well as the profits of downstream products such as MTO [83][104]. 3.4.3 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Production and Output Tracking - The weekly operating rates and production of methanol from different raw materials and different regions are tracked, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as MTO, traditional downstream products, and some chemical products [91][100][108]. 3.4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes of methanol from different countries (such as Malaysia and Venezuela) and the shipping volume of Iranian methanol are tracked. In addition, data on the external structure of methanol, import profits, and price differences are also provided [128]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking - The weekly capacity utilization rate, output, and operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants overseas are tracked [131][132]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A supply - demand balance sheet for methanol from January 2025 to May 2026 is presented, including the supply (imports, olefin production, etc.), demand (olefin consumption, acetic acid consumption, etc.), and inventory changes in the port area [135].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in a state of range - bound trading, with steel prices supported by cost at the bottom but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations at the top. The running range of rebar is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is between 3000 - 3400 [1][7]. - The supply - demand balance of finished steel products is marginally improving, with inventory maintaining a destocking trend. However, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is gradually increasing. The high inventory of coil products remains a problem, and the consumption side lacks drivers [16][17]. Summary by Section Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The fundamental contradictions of finished steel products are not significant, maintaining a trend of production reduction and destocking. The consumption of hot - rolled coils improved significantly last week, but it may be due to pre - export rush before export controls take effect, and the sustainability of demand needs further attention [1]. - The profit of blast furnaces and electric furnaces has increased recently, so the intensity of finished steel production reduction may weaken. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly last week, but terminal demand is weak, and the destocking trend of rebar may slow down if production continues to increase without improvement in consumption [1]. - The pig iron output increased slightly last week, and whether it has bottomed out needs further observation. The slight increase in pig iron output supports the strength of iron ore prices, but the iron ore port inventory is accumulating, and there is also pressure on the upside of iron ore prices. The steel mill inventory of iron ore is relatively low compared to previous years, providing support for replenishment demand [1]. - The coking coal supply is relatively loose, restricting its upside space [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound trading. The running range of rebar is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is between 3000 - 3400 [7]. - **Near - Term Trading Logic**: The logic of steel production reduction and weak demand in the off - season; the supply - demand balance of rebar is marginally improving, with inventory maintaining a slow destocking trend, while the coil product side is still in a state of high inventory with large destocking pressure [4]. - **Long - Term Trading Expectations**: The anti - involution expectation always exists; the 14th Five - Year Plan expectation; the recovery of blast furnace and electric furnace profits, and the expectation of future production reduction is gradually weakening [6]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Wait and see [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The 01 - contract price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coil is 3100 - 3500 [7]. - **Rebar Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and worried about steel price decline, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures or sell call options. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures or sell put options [7]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - **Positive Information**: News of multi - department measures to boost consumption; marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of finished steel products with inventory destocking; gradual improvement in blast furnace and electric furnace profits; policies promoting coal clean and efficient use and traditional industry optimization [16]. - **Negative Information**: The steel peak season is not prosperous, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is increasing; the iron ore inventory at ports is accumulating again, and the high valuation of iron ore may affect the price of finished steel products; the coil product side is still in a state of high inventory with no consumption - side drivers [17]. 2.2 Next - Week Important Event Concerns - Next Wednesday, China's manufacturing PMI will be announced; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the current week will be announced; the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [15][24]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Analyzes the basis, spread between coil and rebar, term structure, and monthly spread structure of steel products through various seasonal charts [18][22][28][31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, and the motivation for the five major steel products to reduce production may gradually weaken [41]. 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - Analyzes the export profit of hot - rolled coils through various charts, including the relationship between export profit and export volume, and the relationship with overseas prices [62]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Provides data on steel production, inventory, and other aspects, such as the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the inventory of steel mills [90]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Analyzes the supply of steel products from aspects such as pig iron + scrap steel estimation, production prediction of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the relationship between steel mill profits and scrap steel consumption [97][98][101]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Predicts the consumption of steel products, including the consumption of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and other steel products, and analyzes the inventory of various steel products [114][124].

Report Title - The report is titled "South China Futures Glass and Soda Ash Industry Weekly Report - Low-level Volatility" [1] Report Date - The report date is December 28, 2025 [2] 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash trends include potential glass production line cold repairs from late December to before the Spring Festival, which impact far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy - end supply disturbances in 2026 cannot be ruled out [2]. - Soda ash is mainly cost - priced. Despite occasional supply cuts, new capacities are pending, and production remains at a medium - high level. Without a trend of production cuts, its valuation lacks upward elasticity. With the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to have an oversupply situation due to new capacities [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The glass spot is weak, with cold - repair expectations but high middle - reach inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed, including unexpected cold - repair situations and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 contract is more about expectations. The glass and soda ash trends are unclear, lacking clear signals, and are expected to be volatile. It is advisable to observe [8]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The average spot price of glass decreased by 2 yuan on December 28, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass futures increased by 0.96%, 1.13%, and 0.43% respectively on December 26, 2025. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions on December 26, 2025, were 105 in Shahe, 129 in Hubei, 108 in East China, and 109 in South China [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: There was little change in the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions on December 26, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash futures increased by 1.35%, 1.45%, and 0.54% respectively on December 26, 2025 [14][15]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: There are still some glass production line cold - repair expectations to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and supply is starting to shrink. The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [15][16]. - **Negative Information**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, with near - term spot pressure. The far - month demand expectation lacks elasticity, and there are differences in the degree of demand decline. New capacities of soda ash are expected to increase long - term supply pressure, and the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations affects the rigid demand for soda ash [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The sales - to - production situation and spot price of glass, as well as the spot transaction situation of soda ash [18]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Single - Side Trends and Capital Movements - The expectation of the main 05 contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand and no clear signals. The near - term spot pressure of glass is high, and the middle - reach inventory is high. The far - month has expectations of supply cuts and cost increases, but the demand is unclear [19]. 3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - **Glass**: The 01 contract is approaching delivery. This week, the 5 - 9 spread was mainly volatile, with no clear directional movement due to unclear supply - demand expectations and a wait - and - see attitude from funds [23]. - **Soda Ash**: It maintains a C structure overall. With the launch of new capacities, the long - term pattern may deteriorate again [24]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [40]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,200 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,105 yuan/ton [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [47]. - **Soda Ash**: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 190,000 tons, maintaining a high - expectation level [47]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass**: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 154,500 tons. There are still some cold - repair production lines to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further [54]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates slightly around 10 tons. The first 1 - million - ton soda ash capacity of the second phase of Alxa (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9. The new 700,000 - ton capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into production in mid - to - late December [58]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the spot pressure remains. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7%. Terminal demand remains weak, and downstream restocking during the off - season is limited [61]. - **Soda Ash**: Currently, the total daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,600 tons. With the expectation of further glass cold - repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the inventory days have risen to over 35 days. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November (including imports and exports) is estimated to be - 0.05%. The rigid demand for soda ash weakens slightly month - on - month, and downstream restocks mainly for rigid demand at low prices [74]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total manufacturer inventory is 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes, or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, the same as the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [85]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.4385 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,800 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,900 tons; the heavy - soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,700 tons. The delivery - warehouse inventory is 395,100 tons (a decrease of 55,200 tons). The total inventory of factory warehouses and delivery warehouses is 1.8336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 116,000 tons. The upstream inventory reduction exceeds expectations [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus lies in whether the current sugar price has bottomed out. Key contradictions include the rationality of the 01 contract price, the future price of the 05 contract, and whether the international market can stabilize above 15 cents [2]. - The upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing down. The overall structure has not reversed, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations and a return to a downward trend [10]. - The long - term backwardation pattern of sugar futures is difficult to break, and there is a possibility of further widening of the spread [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The 01 contract has entered the delivery month. After a significant rebound, its price dropped compared to the far - month contracts last Thursday. The 01 price corresponds to a minimum spot price of about 5160 yuan according to the Brazilian out - of - quota 45 - day shipping import price [2]. - The 05 contract is currently at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but is similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price. It is more likely to follow the raw sugar price, but the probability of further price increases is limited due to insufficient bullish factors [2]. - The international raw sugar price rose after a decline last week, approaching 15.2 cents. However, it has been suppressed after reaching this price four times. The bullish impact is more reflected in the far - month contracts, and the rebound height of the near - month sugar price is expected to be limited [2]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing down. The moving averages show a clear bearish arrangement. Although the 05 contract's K - line briefly crossed the 10 - day, 20 - day, and 30 - day moving averages, the overall structure has not changed, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations [10]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - The unilateral long position in SR2511 has been stopped out. - The strategy of selling spot and buying SR2511 has been entered [11]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: None. - **Spread Strategy**: Short 05 and long 09 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 11.29% and a historical percentile of 2.2% over three years [12]. - **Hedging Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 5300 - 5350 yuan) and sell call options (SR603C5400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 35 - 40) [12]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 5100 - 5150 yuan) and sell put options (SR603P5000, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 30) [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information**: - As of December 25, 2025, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 2025/26 crushing season have started production, one less than the previous year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 59.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons year - on - year [13]. - As of December 24, 2025, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume in the 2025/26 crushing season was 11.5321 million tons, a decrease of 1.9633 million tons (14.54%) year - on - year. Sugar production was 1.0005 million tons, a decrease of 0.1667 million tons (14.28%) year - on - year [13]. - In India, sugarcane in the Kuditrey region is suffering losses due to flowering, and farmers have requested early crushing [13]. - Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to be 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season [14]. - **Bearish Information**: - In November 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The beverage output in November was 10.457 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase; from January to November, it was 165.606 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [15]. - As of December 18, 2025, 69 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 2025/26 crushing season have started production, five less than the previous year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 57.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons year - on - year [16]. - As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 7.825 million tons, a 27.69% increase year - on - year [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Brazil's weekly port waiting sugar quantity and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) [17]. - Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [21]. - India's sugar - crushing progress [21]. - December production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: The futures price rose last week, with the main 05 contract rising 3.87% for the week. The position of the SR2605 contract has seasonally declined recently. The largest profit - taking seat in sugar has significantly increased its net short position to 15,000 contracts, while the net short position of foreign - funded seats has slightly decreased to 52,300 contracts. Technically, although the short - term price has risen significantly, the bearish arrangement still exists, and the price may fluctuate [19]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: - **Basis Structure**: The premium of the cheapest deliverable for the 01 contract has dropped to - 249 yuan/ton. If calculated based on the import price around January 15, the futures price is still at a premium of about 100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Spread Structure**: The 1 - 5 spread changed significantly last week due to the rapid decline of the 01 contract price. The long - term price difference is stable, with a slight near - month premium [22]. - **International Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: The raw sugar price rose last week, up 2.15%. The price is approaching the Brazilian export cost line. The non - commercial position of CFTC has maintained a large short position but decreased last week [24]. - **Spread Structure**: The current raw sugar futures show a back structure with strong near - month and weak far - month prices. The pressure of increased production in the Thai and Indian markets is high. The far - month discount is unfavorable for sugar mills' hedging, and the hedging pressure reappears above 15.2 cents [27]. - **Domestic - International Spread Tracking**: Due to the quota system, the price fluctuations of Zhengzhou sugar are much smaller than those of raw sugar. Recently, affected by the start of sugar mills in Guangxi and large imports, the domestic supply pressure has increased, while the overseas export profit has shrunk to a loss. The previous pattern of strong domestic and weak international markets has temporarily changed to weak domestic and strong international markets [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Import Profit Tracking**: China is a net importer of sugar, and the production cost is higher than the international market. With the recent decline in the international price and the firm domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit is very high. In addition to sugar imports, syrup and premixed powder imports are also used to supplement supply. Although the import window from Thailand and Vietnam has been closed, imports from other Asian countries such as Malaysia have increased. Recently, the imports of syrup and premixed powder have been relatively stable [32]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Projection - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection**: Since the 2025/26 crushing season, considering the good growth of sugarcane in the Guangxi production area, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly compared to last year. According to the November data from the China Sugar Association, the estimated production will rise to about 11.56 million tons, a 3.56% year - on - year increase. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 crushing season and the current situation and are not used as a reference for real - world data [34].

南华期货锌产业周报 ——区间震荡 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌市正处于强宏观预期与弱现实库存的剧烈博弈之中。宏观层面，海外交易宽松预期叠加国内"十 五五"规划纲要提出的新基建加码，使得整体风险偏好显著回暖，有色板块共振上行。然而，回归基本面逻 辑，我们看到了典型的"内紧外松"结构性矛盾**：国内供应端因矿端极度紧缺（国产TC跌至1500元/金属 吨历史低位）迫使冶炼厂延续检修，叠加12月出口窗口关闭，导致国内社会库存逆势去化至11.47万吨的相对 低位。与此同时，海外LME库存却突破10万吨大关，隐性库存显性化带来的压力客观存在，这直接压制了伦 锌的上方空间。由此判断，当前锌价的底部支撑由高企的边际成本和国内供应缺口夯实，但上方天花板则受 制于海外累库与淡季需求的双重压制，短期难以形成单边突破趋势，大概率维持高位区间震荡。 沪锌沪铜期货主力收盘价对比 元/吨 沪锌期货主力合约收盘价 沪铜期货主力收盘价(右轴) 元/吨 15000 20000 25000 30000 50 ...