戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | 苯乙烯风险管理日报 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7350-745 0 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯上涨还可以锁定现货卖出 | EB2507 ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/10 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 17.84% | 45.7% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 66.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | ...

油料产业风险管理日报 2025/06/10 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 10.8% | 10.4% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 0.1746 | 0.309 | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M250 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-34 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock index fluctuated sideways in the morning and plunged in the afternoon. The semiconductor sector led the decline, while the rare earth sector continued to rise in the afternoon. The decline is likely related to the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, with the market pre - releasing risks. The negotiation result will significantly impact the short - term stock index trend. A successful negotiation may lead to a rebound, while a failed one may result in a weak performance. However, due to the strong determination of the management to stabilize the market and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum from June 18th to 19th with expected favorable financial policies, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index plunged in the afternoon, with the broader - market index relatively resilient. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.8967 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined with shrinking volume, while IH and IM declined with expanding volume [4]. Important Information - The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihood and Addressing Urgent and Difficult Issues of the Masses", proposing multiple measures such as canceling household registration restrictions for social insurance participation in the place of employment, guiding qualified regions to directly distribute maternity allowances to insured persons, reasonably raising the minimum wage standard, promoting the participation of flexible employees in the housing provident fund system, increasing the supply of affordable housing, and building or renovating over 1000 high - quality general high schools [5]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | - 0.69 | 9.8975 | 1.0782 | 23.8881 | - 0.3841 | | IH | - 0.53 | 5.6839 | 1.2478 | 8.4465 | 0.0045 | | IC | - 0.88 | 8.6124 | 0.9742 | 21.9085 | - 0.1543 | | IM | - 0.89 | 21.2759 | 4.0526 | 33.8127 | 1.3583 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | - 0.44 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | - 0.86 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.31 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 141.5359 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 12.8967 | [8]

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 6900-7200 | 14.45% | 33.8% | 【核心矛盾】 今日盘面上午受中美谈判的情绪影响较多，下午情绪有所回落。 近期PE供需双弱的格局持续：供给端，PE装置处于集中检修季中，供给边 际减量，但由于年初装置投产较多，产量大幅高于往年同期，检修带来的边际减量无法完全抵消高产能增速带来的供给增量；而需求端，低 利润环境对开工率形成压制，加上农膜正处于产销淡季，需求暂看不到增量驱动。另外，当前HD-LL价差仍处于高位，需持续关注全密度装 置的转产情况。 【利多解读】 1. PE装置进入季节性检修，集中检修季预计持续至7月。 2. 当前盘面已处于偏低水位，向下空间有限。 3. HDPE-LLDPE价差处于高位，或将带来更多全密度装置的转产。 source： 南华研 ...

source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 聚丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空聚丙烯期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7050-7 100 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若聚丙烯价 格上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | PP2509C7000 | 卖出 | 50% | 50-100 | | 采购 管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希 望根据订单情况进行采 | | 为了防止聚丙烯价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以 在目前阶段买入聚丙烯期货，在盘面采购来提前 | PP2509 | 买入 | 50% | 6800-6 900 | | | | 空 | 锁定采购成本 | | | | | | | 购 | | ...

苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/06/10 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 7300-7900 | 10.5% | 10.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） 建议入场区 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | | 间 | | 库存管 | 担心全国新苹果丰产，苹果收购价 过低 | 多 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身情况，做空苹果期货 来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | AP251 0 | 卖出 | 50% | 7600-7650 | | 采购管 | 担心旧作苹果库存下降，而新季苹 果减产，苹果收购价过高 | 空 | 为了防止苹果价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目 ...

白糖产业风险管理日报 2025/06/10 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 白糖近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 5600-5800 | 6.45% | 1.6% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 白糖风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 糖价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存 情况，做空郑糖期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的 生产成本 | SR2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 5800-58 50 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若糖价上 涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | SR509C6000 ...

镍&不锈钢：短期或延续震荡 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | 管理 | 值风险 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | | | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 提前采购锁定生产成本 | 远月沪镍合约 | 买入 | 依据采购 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term trend is divergent. Gold will continue to fluctuate, and the focus this week is on the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the US inflation data on Wednesday night. London silver remains strong, with the upper target moved up to the 40 area. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market showed a divergent trend. Platinum led the gains, followed by silver and palladium, while gold fluctuated slightly up. The US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yields fluctuated slightly down, European and American stocks fluctuated, the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fluctuated, crude oil rose, and Bitcoin soared. Since late May, the investment and futures positions of platinum and silver ETFs, as well as non - commercial net long positions, have all increased sharply. The 07 contract has been slowly reducing positions in June, indicating a certain possibility of a squeeze. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at 3346.7, unchanged; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.905 per ounce, up 2.12%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 774.72 yuan per gram, down 1.02%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8909 yuan per kilogram, up 1.77% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Positions - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.1%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 37.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 2.01 tons to 936.22 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's position decreased by 52.31 tons to 14656.98 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory increased by 40.4 tons to 1158.3 tons per day; as of the week ending May 30, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 49 tons to 1347.5 tons per week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the key data to focus on is the US CPI data on Wednesday night. In terms of events, the focus is on He Lifeng's visit to the UK from June 8th to 13th and the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Bezant will testify before the House Committee this week. At 00:00 on Friday, the Fed will release the "US Quarterly Financial Accounts Report." This week marks the Fed officials' quiet period before the June 19th Fed FOMC meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: The SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 774.72 yuan per gram, down 1.09%; the SGX gold TD was at 772.01 yuan per gram, down 0.97%; the CME gold main contract was at $3346.7 per ounce, up 0.47%. The SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 8909 yuan per kilogram, up 0.67%; the SGX silver TD was at 8888 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; the CME silver main contract was at $36.905 per ounce, up 2.15%. The SHFE - TD gold was at 2.71 yuan per gram, down 26.36%; the SHFE - TD silver was at 21 yuan per kilogram, down 35.29%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 90.6842, down 1.64% [7]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: The SHFE gold inventory was 17847 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1184.9942 tons, down 0.05%. The SHFE gold position was 173184 lots, down 2.88%; the SPDR gold position was 936.22 tons, up 0.22%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1158.326 tons, up 3.61%; the CME silver inventory was 15375.0443 tons, down 0.08%; the SGX silver inventory was 1347.54 tons, down 3.51%. The SHFE silver position was 491386 lots, up 2.15%; the SLV silver position was 14656.983071 tons, down 0.36% [15][17]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 99.0016, down 0.2%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.18, down 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was 42761.76 points, unchanged. WTI crude oil spot was $64.58 per barrel, up 1.91%; LmeS copper 03 was $9768.5 per ton, up 1.01%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.49%, down 0.44%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 2.18%, down 0.91%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.47%, down 2.08% [22].