南华期货PVC周报 ——成本略有走强，等待出清兑现 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 2025年11月2 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响PVC走势的核心矛盾有以下几点：1、近年孱弱的需求导致过高显性库存，以及巨大的仓单压力，导 致月差被持续的压制在无风险附近不得翻身。2、在整体持续过剩的背景下，虽然上游利润已经被压制的比较 低，但是由于企业性质或者物料平衡等问题，实质性的供应出清兑现十分缓慢。3、今年是近年PVC新增投产 的大年，在出口爆发力不足的基础上，国内需求无法消化如此体量的PVC增量，导致基本面持续恶化。目前 平衡表看，PVC在过年之前难以去库，且由于冬季低温担心管道冻结等原因，会导致上游的降负荷或者停车 意愿较低，产能出清兑现很难，预计供应收缩不明显，今年将以历史最高库存状态进入春节。 | 平衡表3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the short - term price trend of industrial silicon futures lies in the game between the macro "anti - involution" expectation and the weak fundamentals. The industry has an expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, but there are practical resistances in the process of capacity optimization. The cost of industrial silicon is mainly 30% electricity, so coal price fluctuations affect it. In November, the industry's operating rate is expected to rise, and the output in October may reach the annual high. The downstream demand shows different pulling effects, with polysilicon production scheduled to decline in November, organic silicon monomer plants having maintenance plans, and the aluminum alloy operating rate remaining stable. The market pricing logic is further inclined to polysilicon futures. [1] - In the short term, the price of industrial silicon futures will closely follow the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile pattern. With the arrival of the dry season, the market logic will gradually revolve around power costs, and then the downward space of industrial silicon will be limited. [2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the game between the macro "anti - involution" expectation and the weak fundamentals. There are resistances in the capacity optimization process due to the industry structure. The cost of industrial silicon is affected by coal prices. The supply is expected to increase in November, and the output in October may reach the annual high. The downstream demand varies, and the market pricing logic is shifting towards polysilicon futures. [1] - Near - end trading logic (before the end of the year): The total production schedule of industrial silicon in October continues to increase, and the output on the supply side will reach the annual high. The policies of the downstream polysilicon industry will have an impact on the price of industrial silicon. [3] - Far - end trading logic (after the end of the year): The electricity price during the dry season will increase the production cost, and the price center of gravity will gradually move up. With the arrival of the off - season, the demand for industrial silicon is likely to weaken. [4] 1.2 Trading - based Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: Wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are: oscillation range 8400 - 9400; low - level range 7800 - 8300; high - level range 9500 - 10000. [5] - **Single - side strategy**: Short SI2601 at the high - level range; long SI2605 at the low - level range. [7] - **Month - spread strategy**: Reverse spread of SI2601 - SI2605. [7] - **Basis strategy**: Wait and see. [7] - **Option strategy**: Sell SI2601 - C - 9500 when the volatility is high; buy SI2601 - P - 8300 when the volatility is low. [7] 1.3 Industry Operation Suggestions - The support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.2% and a historical percentile of 68.0% in 3 years. [8] - For silicon industry enterprises, different hedging strategies are proposed according to different scenarios such as sales, procurement, and inventory management, with corresponding hedging tools, ratios, and suggested entry intervals. [8] Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerned Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On October 26, the 100,000 - ton/year hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental protection project of Yongchang Silicon Industry successfully passed the acceptance of reaching the production standard. [9] 2.2 Next Week's Concerned Events No relevant information provided. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures trends**: The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract this week was 9095 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%. The trading volume was 372,319 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 13.12%. The open interest was 408,543 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 16,059 lots. The month - spread of SI2601 - SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 47,253 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1074 lots. The price may weaken further, and key support levels need to be focused on. The market is in a state of equilibrium, and the wide - range oscillation range of 8600 - 9300 yuan/ton needs attention. [12][14] - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been decreasing, while the implied volatility of at - the - money options has been rising significantly. The option open - interest PCR has been increasing, indicating a growing bearish sentiment in the market. [16][17] - **Capital movement**: The net short positions of key industrial silicon seats have increased recently, indicating signs of institutional short - selling. [19] - **Month - spread structure**: The current industrial silicon futures contracts show a stable contango structure. [21] - **Basis structure**: The basis of the industrial silicon main contract is at the average level, and there is a relatively high probability of it strengthening further. [25] 2.2 Downstream Futures and Capital Trends - Polysilicon: The closing price of the polysilicon weighted index contract this week was 52,045 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The trading volume was 289,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 29.56%. The open interest was 231,600 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 lots. The month - spread of PS2601 - PS2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 9420 lots, a week - on - week increase of 810 lots. The net long positions are showing a slight increase. [27] - Aluminum alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy weighted index contract this week was 20,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 8407 lots, and the open interest was 26,300 lots. The month - spread of AD2512 - AD2601 was in a contango structure, and the number of warehouse receipts was 47,899 lots. The net long positions are increasing. [27] 2.3 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - Provides price data for various products in the industrial silicon industry chain, including different grades of industrial silicon, industrial silicon powder, trichlorosilane, polysilicon, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12, along with their daily and weekly changes. [30][31] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry is currently in a continuous repair channel. The polysilicon industry's profit is stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, and the profit level of the organic silicon industry is decreasing. [32] Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - Provides weekly production and operating rate data from different sources such as Baichuan, Steel Union, and SMM. The production of industrial silicon shows different trends, and the operating rates also vary. [36][38] - There are also inventory data for different regions and types of industrial silicon, including Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and social inventories at ports. [52][54][55] 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon from SMM and Baichuan shows a decreasing trend, and the operating rate has a slight change. The weekly inventory of polysilicon shows different changes in different parts such as total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, and warehouse - receipt inventory. [56][58] 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys are increasing, and the inventory shows different changes. There are also seasonal data on production, operating rates, and PMI of aluminum alloys. [61][62] 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC is increasing slightly, and there are also data on monthly net exports and inventory of organic silicon products. [65][66] 5.5 Terminal - Provides data on China's real - estate sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new - installed capacity, reflecting the terminal demand situation. [68]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week, with the fundamentals loosening. The market's risk preference was affected by the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease, tightening the supply at the ore end. The price of ferronickel has been continuously decreasing due to weak downstream demand [3][4]. - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless steel futures follows macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, it focuses on fundamentals. The demand for new energy is an important factor in the long - term, and the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand for stainless steel in the medium - term [4][7]. - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous high - selling and low - buying strategy for nickel and stainless steel has seen a decline in valuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week. The macro - level factors such as the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs affected the market's risk preference. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but the actual transactions are stable. The price of ferronickel has been decreasing due to weak downstream demand, and stainless steel is also in a weak state. Although there are some positive macro - signals, the overall situation remains under pressure [3]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous strategies included buying Shanghai Nickel 2511 futures contracts, Shanghai Nickel 2511 call options, and Shanghai Nickel 2512 futures contracts, which have all been exited [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, in the case of inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory devaluation, it is recommended to short Shanghai Nickel futures and sell call options. In the case of procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options. Similar strategies are also provided for stainless steel [10][11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Sino - US relations have eased, the Fed decided to cut interest rates this week, many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts mainly for the 200 - series, and the approaching rainy season in the Philippines may affect the supply of nickel ore [12]. - **Negative Information**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the trading center of ferronickel has moved down, stainless steel has entered the off - season, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut is uncertain [12]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends**: The nickel and stainless steel futures markets oscillated this week, with prices first rebounding slightly and then falling again. The cost reduction led to a more significant decline. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and some manufacturers announcing production cuts [13]. - **Fund Flow Analysis**: The net positions of key profitable seats have decreased, and the confidence in short - term price increases has weakened. For stainless steel, the inflow of funds is more cautious, with some funds shorting at high levels and reducing positions during the week [14]. - **External Market**: The LME introduced policies to limit large - scale near - month positions to avoid malicious short - squeezing. The external market was relatively weak this week, with inventory digestion difficult, which suppressed the upside space [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Under the current nickel price range, the profits of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are under pressure. The profit space for producing electrowon nickel through different processes is thin, and some pyrometallurgical production lines are in a loss state. The profit of ferronickel has improved but has not turned positive, and there is still support at the bottom [39][40]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable. The inventory of nickel ore raw materials in China is high, but the supply may be affected by the rainy season in the Philippines. Many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts for the 200 - series, and the production of domestic ferronickel is at a historical low due to competition from Indonesian ferronickel [43]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The overall demand for the nickel industry chain has been weak for a long time. The demand for new energy vehicles has increased during the peak season, and the demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate in the new energy sector has recovered. However, the demand for stainless steel is relatively weak, and the peak season demand has fallen short of expectations. Although there are some positive factors in exports, the short - term demand adjustment is neutral [46]. 5.3 Balance Interpretation - In the short - term, the supply of the nickel industry is relatively abundant, with high - speed growth in the production of primary nickel in Indonesia and China. The main variable in the industry balance lies in the new energy demand. Stainless steel demand has limited marginal growth, but the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand in the medium - term. The new energy sector is in a tight - balance and short - supply state during the peak season, but it is difficult to reverse the overall oversupply situation [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current short - term trading focus in the market is on whether the photovoltaic storage platform will be established in November, which will later shift to the expectation game of "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". Be vigilant against the disturbance of false information to market sentiment during policy or nodal vacuums. The volatility of polysilicon futures is high, and investors are advised to participate cautiously and control positions and hedge risks [2][3] - The near - term trading logic (before early December) centers on whether the photovoltaic platform company will be established in mid - November and the downstream's weak willingness to accept warehouse receipts. The far - term trading logic (after early December) shows that the market is under the dual pressure of "high inventory + weak demand" [7][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors influencing polysilicon futures prices are the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in November, the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and the timely introduction of photovoltaic policies. The market rumor is that the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform has been postponed from mid - October to November [2] - The market shows "weak supply and demand" characteristics. Supply - side: The upstream polysilicon production in the photovoltaic industry decreased this week, and the overall inventory is still accumulating. Demand - side: The downstream silicon wafer production decreased week - on - week, and the inventory increased. Long - term demand depends on the 2026 photovoltaic policy and the increase in the grid - connected electricity price [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread strategy**: Observe - **Option strategy**: Under low volatility, buy PS2512 - C - 58000 and PS2512 - P - 49000 [9] 1.3 Industry Operation Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Wide - range oscillation - **Price range**: Oscillation range: 50000 - 57000; Low - level range: 47000 - 49000; High - level range: 58000 - 60000 - **Strategy suggestions**: - **Unilateral strategy**: Go long on the PS2601 contract at the low - level range and go short at the high - level range - **Calendar - spread strategy**: Long the PS2601 - PS2605 spread [11] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - On October 24, the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposed to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy [12] 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events No information provided. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Market review and technical analysis**: This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 56371 yuan/ton, up 8.31% week - on - week. The trading volume was 413,800 lots, up 43.11% week - on - week, and the open interest was 258,000 lots, up 26,400 lots week - on - week. The PS2601 - PS2605 spread was in a back structure, up 95 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts was 9590 lots, up 170 lots week - on - week. The price showed technical characteristics of "long - position increase driving price up" and had the basis for further strengthening in the short term [14] - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of polysilicon decreased, indicating a narrowing of actual price fluctuations. The implied volatility of at - the - money options strengthened, showing an increase in market participants' expectation of future price fluctuations. The option open - interest PCR was in a volatile state, indicating a relatively balanced power between long and short positions [17] - **Capital flow**: The net long - position scale showed signs of increase [19] - **Calendar - spread structure**: The polysilicon futures term structure was in a back structure, with a higher increase in near - month contracts and a lower increase in far - month contracts [22] - **Base - spread structure**: The basis of the main contract weakened this week due to the sharp rise in futures prices [25] 3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of most products in the photovoltaic industry chain were stable or slightly decreased this week. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material decreased by 0.73 yuan/kg week - on - week, a decrease of 1.38% [28] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. After reaching a phased low in June, the industry's profitability has been continuously repaired. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached up to 10,000 yuan/ton. The profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [30] - From the futures perspective, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 31.61%, and the profit increased this week due to the rise in futures prices [30] Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic production**: SMM's weekly polysilicon production was 28,200 tons, down 4.41% week - on - week; Baichuan's was 31,080 tons, down 1.46% week - on - week. Baichuan's weekly operating rate was 49%, down 0.02 percentage points week - on - week [33] - **Inventory**: The total weekly polysilicon inventory was 507,000 tons, up 0.66% week - on - week. The inventory of production enterprises, warehouse receipts, etc. showed different degrees of increase [40] 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly silicon wafer production was 14.24 GW, down 3.33% week - on - week - **Inventory**: The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 18.93 GW, up 2.49% week - on - week [43] 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: No specific production data was provided, but the monthly production and operating rate showed seasonal characteristics - **Inventory**: The weekly battery cell inventory was 6.02 GW, down 15.21% week - on - week [55] 5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and operating rate of photovoltaic modules showed seasonal characteristics - **Inventory**: The weekly photovoltaic module inventory was 31.8 GW, down 5.07% week - on - week [63] 5.5 Bidding - The photovoltaic winning bid capacity was 1073.11 MW, up 179.80% week - on - week, and the winning bid average price was 0.71 yuan/watt, down 1.39% week - on - week [66] 5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new photovoltaic installation in China showed seasonal characteristics. The data on green power generation and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in green power were also presented [69][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, PP will remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with upward pressure difficult to relieve. The high level of PP device maintenance can only alleviate part of the supply pressure, while the large inventory of supply and the upcoming new device production make it hard to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and weak spot trading [1]. - In the near term, the bearish trend of PP is expected to continue as it is difficult to reverse the fundamental situation. To see PP stabilize and rebound, improvements in the spot market, repair of basis, high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, high demand growth, and no increase in imports are required [5]. - In the long term, from the production forecast in the first quarter of 2026, new PP device production will be relatively limited, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. Coupled with an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up recovery [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - demand aspect**: Although recent device maintenance has alleviated some supply pressure, the large inventory of supply and the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical make it difficult to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory, weakening the demand - side support [1]. - **Macro aspect**: This week, crude oil prices peaked and fell. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro - environment and a general decline in chemical products. Macro - sentiment and cost - side fluctuations have a greater impact on the PP market [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Recent strategy review**: A unilateral long - at - low strategy was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted price range of polypropylene in the next month is 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.94% and a historical percentile of 20.9% over the past three years [11]. - **Hedging strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short PP2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 6,900 - 7,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 40) to lock in profits and reduce costs. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy PP2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 6,500 - 6,550 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The coal price rose due to the shutdown of Shaanxi Shiyangou Coal Mine after an accident; relevant departments mentioned rectifying involution - style competition and establishing a fair and innovative business environment; a 450,000 - ton device of Quanzhou Guoheng malfunctioned and is expected to stop until November 7; two new PP lines (900,000 tons in total) of Daxie Petrochemical are expected to stop for 3 - 4 months due to upstream technical transformation [18]. - **Negative information**: The result of the Sino - US meeting in Busan, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a decline [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The meeting result of OPEC+ on December's crude oil production; the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict; relevant policy recommendations after the Fourth Plenary Session [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and fund movement**: The market was mainly oscillating in the first half of the week and declined in the second half. This week, the trading volume decreased slightly, and the net short positions of the top five profitable seats increased significantly. Market sentiment has slightly improved, with more long - short competition [21]. - **Basis structure**: After speculative replenishment, downstream inventory is high, weakening spot demand. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 170 yuan/ton (weakened by 48 yuan compared to last week), - 70 yuan/ton in East China (weakened by 8 yuan), and - 40 yuan/ton in South China (strengthened by 32 yuan) [23]. - **Spread structure**: Due to the relatively optimistic macro - expectation and fewer PP device productions in the first half of next year, the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Due to the continuous weakness of PP, the profit situation of each production line is not optimistic. The recent increase in propane prices has led to a decline in PDH device profits, currently at - 300 yuan/ton. If the profits are further compressed, PDH devices may reduce production [31]. 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - demand Balance Sheet Deduction - From the balance sheet, the future supply - demand pressure is not too large. The key is to digest the existing inventory. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, a high demand growth rate (current apparent demand growth rate is 11%), and limited increase in imports [39]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 77.06% (+1.13%). This week, devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, slightly increasing the operating rate. In November, devices such as Daxie Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical will be under maintenance, but the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical and the large existing capacity make it difficult to fundamentally relieve the supply pressure [45]. 3.5.3 Import - export and Deduction - **Import**: Due to the weak overseas prices, some low - price PP supplies may flow into China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - **Export**: Weak overseas demand and the off - season for exports restrict PP exports, but some enterprises have increased export orders by reducing prices this week [48]. 3.5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.61% (+0.24%). Affected by previous price fluctuations, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and pre - empted some replenishment demand. This week, the spot market was inactive, with weak trading and a weak basis [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current supply-demand pattern of PE is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. The supply pressure remains high due to high inventory capacity and the successive commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, while the demand support will gradually weaken at the end of the year [1][8][33]. - In the short - to medium - term, PE is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, and a bearish view is recommended. In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the supply pressure of non - standard products may suppress its price [8]. - The macro environment has a significant impact on the PE market. The weakening of the macro atmosphere and the decline in crude oil prices have led to a general decline in chemical products, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand level: Supply pressure is high as the total output remains high despite a slight increase in recent maintenance volume, and new devices are to be commissioned. Demand support is weak as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year, and downstream raw material inventory is high [1]. - Macro level: Crude oil prices have peaked and declined, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro atmosphere. The influence of macro emotions and cost fluctuations on the PE market has increased [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Weak and volatile [10]. - Price range: L2601 is between 6800 - 7100 [10]. - Strategy suggestion: Short on rallies [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200 [12]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, short plastic futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy plastic futures and sell put options [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Not provided in the content. - Bearish information: The Sino - US meeting result is lower than market expectations, new devices are commissioned, and the restart of some devices increases supply [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - OPEC + meeting results on December crude oil production, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and relevant policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The disk reached a peak on Tuesday and then declined this week [20]. - Capital movement: The open interest increased this week, with no significant changes in the top five long and short positions in the order book, a slight reduction in net short positions of the top five profitable seats, and a slight increase in net short positions of the main profitable seats [20]. - Basis structure: The spot price lacks support and follows the decline of the PE disk. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 79 yuan/ton (weakened by 20 compared with last week), in East China was 31 yuan/ton (- 10), and in South China was 251 yuan/ton (+ 70) [22]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic macro expectations and the limited commissioning of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The production profits of all production lines have been compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. PE devices are not sensitive to profit conditions, so there is a lack of strong cost support during the downward trend [28]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. Supply pressure is high due to high inventory capacity, new device commissioning, and expected increase in imports after October. Demand support will gradually weaken as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year [33]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 80.86% (- 0.59%). Although the maintenance loss has increased, new device commissioning will still lead to high supply pressure [36]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: Overseas supply - demand is weak, and low - price goods are flowing into China, resulting in an increase in imports in the fourth quarter [41]. - Export: Enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, but the overall export volume is small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [41]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 45.75% (- 0.38%). The agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing operating rate and orders, while the packaging film has insufficient new orders and a declining operating rate [49].

南华期货乙二醇产业周报 ——宏观叙事出现前均维持空配思路 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 ） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业资格证号：F03133676） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月2日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 总体而言，乙二醇需求端随天气转冷冬季订单下发边际明显好转，但基本面供需边际好转难改估值承压 格局，累库预期压制下估值整体承压。宏观上目前从定调上均以预期兑现为主，尚未看到能够形成长期驱动 的宏观叙事。近端显性库存累库预期得到初步兑现，但总体仍维持低位，近期宏观影响下进口扰动频频，若 出现意外或可产生流动性行情，基差维持正套看待。乙二醇长期累库预期使得乙二醇空配地位难改，宏观利 好若无法形成长期驱动，则逢高布空的操作思路维持不变。向下空间而言，乙二醇当前煤制边际装置现金流 已压缩至成本线附近，结合煤制装置开工情况考虑，若估值继续压缩，预计在3700附近将迎来供应端偏强支 撑。目前而言，乙二醇预计短期跟随宏观情绪宽幅震荡，预计震荡区间为3850-4250，操作上考虑在50以上 卖出4200看涨期权，4150以上考虑空单逢高入场。 ∗ 近 ...

南华期货尿素产业周报 ——偏弱震荡 2025/11/02 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 跟随宏观阶段性利多出尽，尿素弱势回落。从现货角度来看多地雨水暂停，秋收、秋播陆续推进，农业尿 素走货适当增加，尿素企业出货适当好转,虽然多数仅维持产销弱平衡，但相较于前期的惨淡已经有较大好 转。内需方面，内需偏弱是目前价格下跌的主要矛盾，复合肥及工业需求均较为疲软，对价格驱动同样有限 因此中期趋势偏弱。在期货高升水的格局下，期现贸易商采购积极性较强。因此虽然前期宏观与产业共振带 动期货反弹，但后期来看，在出口配额消失的背景下，尿素仍面临较大压力。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 sou ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, influenced by the "anti - involution" rumor, the industrial sentiment of PTA has significantly improved, and some short - position funds have reduced their positions to avoid risks. The supply - side of PTA has many maintenance plans in November, and the downstream polyester demand has exceeded expectations after the weather turns cold. The supply - demand of PTA has improved marginally, and the price has rebounded from a low level. However, the expectation of PTA surplus remains unchanged, and the structural contradiction of PX - TA suppresses the repair space of PTA processing fees. The expected price of crude oil on the cost side is also bearish [1]. - In the short term, PX - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side. For operation, consider short - selling on rallies when the single - side 01 contract is above 4700. Regarding processing fees, it is recommended to expand the spread when the TA01 contract processing fee is below 250 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The "anti - involution" rumor has improved market sentiment, and the supply - demand of PTA has marginally improved. However, the surplus expectation and structural contradictions still exist [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Recent Strategy Review**: Two PTA processing - fee expansion strategies have achieved profit - taking. The first one entered the market on 2025/10/27 (cost 250) and exited on 2025/10/28 (290 exit, profit spread +40). The second one entered on 2025/9/22 (cost 278) and exited on 2025/9/30 (305 exit, profit spread +27) [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Polyester Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges of ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle chips are 3800 - 4300, 6000 - 6800, 4250 - 4750, and 5300 - 5900 respectively. Their current volatilities and historical percentile of volatilities in 3 years are also provided [10]. - **PTA Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about PTA price decline, it is recommended to short - sell PTA futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy PTA futures to lock in procurement costs [10]. 3.1.4 Trend Judgement and Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Wide - range fluctuations. - **Price Range**: The TA2601 contract fluctuates in the range of 4400 - 4750. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Consider short - selling on rallies when the 01 contract is above 4700. For the TA01 contract processing fee, it is recommended to expand the spread when it is below 240 [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The "anti - involution" policy is proposed, and trade frictions between China and the US have eased. Some PTA devices have reduced their loads [14][15]. - **Negative Information**: A new PTA device of Dushan Energy has been put into operation [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - Monitor the sustainability of polyester load and terminal orders, the implementation of PX and PTA device restart and maintenance plans, and the follow - up measures of the "anti - involution" symposium [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: This week, the PTA disk oscillated in the range of 4500 - 4700. After a downward oscillation, the price rebounded, the position increased, and the trend degree turned positive [18]. - **Fund Movement**: Recently, the net short - position of key PTA seats has decreased, while that of PX has increased. Some funds have transferred short - positions from PTA to PX to avoid risks [20]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The PTA monthly spread has strengthened slightly, showing a small C - structure, indicating that the inter - monthly contradiction is not obvious [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The PTA spot basis has mainly oscillated this week, and the market expectation remains poor. There is no obvious contradiction in the spot market, and the basis lacks driving force [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Cost Tracking - Track the prices of Brent crude oil, Japanese CFR naphtha, and South Korean xylene [36]. 3.4.2 Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyze the cracking spreads of international and domestic gasoline and diesel, naphtha reforming, aromatic hydrocarbon blending, and PX - TA links [37][41][57]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyze the seasonal trends of polyester comprehensive profit, POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber processing profits, and bottle - chip processing fees [59][61][62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Provide the supply - demand balance sheets of PX and PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, and inventory data [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **PX**: The supply of PX is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter. If the PTA maintenance plans are implemented as scheduled, PX is expected to accumulate about 200,000 tons of inventory in November. Currently, the PX processing fees are in a good state [71]. - **PTA**: A new PTA device has been put into operation, and some devices have reduced their loads. The social inventory has continued to accumulate. The PTA processing fee has been repaired but remains at a low level [72]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The polyester load has increased to 91.7%. The terminal weaving orders have improved significantly after the weather turns cold, and the long - fiber inventory has continued to decline. The polyester processing fee is in a healthy state. The bottle - chip processing fee has been continuously repaired, and its load is a determining factor for the future polyester load [85].

铁矿石12合约月度价格预测（11月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-826 | 18.85% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（11月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2512 | 空 | 25% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2512-C-830 | | 30% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2512 | 多 | 30% | 780-790 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌，若跌破执行价则持有期货多单 | I2511-P-780 | | 40% | 逢高卖 | source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 综合来 ...