Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overseas market focuses on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates potential rate cuts, but their implementation is uncertain. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. The domestic economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting sets a positive tone for policies, and attention should be paid to policy implementation. [1][2][3] - In the financial futures market, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term with a neutral - to - bullish outlook. The bond market's yield decline depends on policy and interest rate changes. The RMB exchange rate is supported by domestic policies, and attention should be paid to US economic data and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation. [2][3][4] - In the commodities market, precious metals are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper, aluminum, and zinc prices are affected by the Fed's meeting and market fundamentals. Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a volatile range. [9][12][15] - In the black market, steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. Iron ore prices have limited downside space, and coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. Ferroalloys are expected to be weakly volatile. [23][24][26] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - term due to supply - demand imbalances. LPG is expected to be strongly volatile. PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. are affected by demand decline and supply - side factors. [28][29][30] - In the agricultural products market, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. Oilseeds and oils are expected to be volatile, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and sugar prices remain weak. [62][63][66] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic macro - policies will be more proactive. The Politburo meeting emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded significantly. Overseas, the US has various political and economic events, and the market focuses on the Fed's policy trends. [1][2][3] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly. Domestic macro - policies support the RMB exchange rate. The Fed's meeting and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation are key factors. Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy. [2][3][4] Stock Index - The stock index rose collectively, and the trading volume increased. Multiple positive factors stimulated the stock index, but the market remains cautious. It is recommended to maintain a neutral - to - bullish view and hold long positions. [4] Treasury Bonds - The bond market was affected by the Politburo meeting. The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," and the fiscal policy is "more proactive." It is recommended to hold long - term positions and wait and see in the short - term. [4][5] Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFIS European line index rose slightly. The market is in a long - short game, with factors such as shipping companies' price - raising intentions and the European economic situation affecting the market. The implementation of price - raising plans and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea are risks. [6][7] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Precious metals are affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and spot market delivery issues. They are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the Fed's meeting and delivery volume. [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices are cautious before the Fed's meeting. The inventory shows different trends, and the industry's operating rate is expected to rise. It is recommended to watch more and act less in the near future and for enterprises to consider buying raw materials. [12][13][14] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by macro - sentiment and copper. Alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weakly volatile. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the price difference with aluminum. [15][16] Zinc - Zinc prices are strongly volatile, affected by macro and fundamental factors. The upside space is limited, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. [16] Tin - Tin prices are in a high - level shock. They are affected by the Fed's meeting and supply - side factors. It is recommended to enter the market on dips. [16][17] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited. The import of lithium ore from Nigeria has a limited impact on the short - term market. The futures and spot markets show different pricing logics. [18][19] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to be in a volatile range. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile due to weak supply and demand. [19][20][21] Lead - Lead prices are strongly volatile, supported by inventory and demand. The short - term shock range is expected to be around 16900 - 17500. [21][22] Black Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. The supply - demand balance is improving, but the profit of steel mills is marginal. The price range of rebar is expected to be 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3500. [23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen, but the downside space is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally decreasing. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting and the domestic economic work meeting. [23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - Coking coal prices have fallen due to weak macro - environment and changes in supply - demand. Coke supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills. [24][25][26] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferroalloys are affected by weak demand and high inventory. They are expected to be weakly volatile, and their downside space is limited. [26][27] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have fallen due to the fading of geopolitical premiums. They are expected to be in a volatile and downward trend in the medium - term, affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and supply - demand imbalances. [28][29] LPG - LPG is in a strongly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and external factors. The domestic market has relatively strong fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. [29][30][31] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is affected by demand decline and market sentiment. The supply - demand structure is relatively good, but the upward drive is limited. It is expected to follow the market sentiment and cost fluctuations. [31][32][33] MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG is affected by terminal demand decline and supply - side factors. The demand negative feedback will gradually spread, and the supply - demand is expected to be in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to short on rallies. [33][34] Methanol - Methanol is affected by delivery games. The 01 contract is expected to reduce positions significantly, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. [35] PP - PP is affected by low - profit and weak market sentiment. The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to short further. [37][38] PE - PE is in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. [39][40] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is supported by the spot market and is in a strong - running pattern. [41][42] Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil has rebounded from the bottom, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see for both. [43][44] Asphalt - Asphalt is affected by winter storage policies. The winter storage may be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. It is recommended to use option sellers for two - way strategies or pay attention to the BU03 basis long - matching opportunity. [45][46][47] Rubber - Rubber is in a weakly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see on the short - term single - side and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the range. [48][49] Agricultural Products Pigs - The supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an oversupply pressure, and the far - month is bullish due to expectations. [62] Oilseeds - The market is concerned about the USDA December report. Imported soybeans' supply and demand are affected by factors such as purchase and arrival. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the contract change. [63][64][65] Oils - Oils are in a volatile pattern, waiting for market guidance. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as production, export, and supply. [66] Cotton - Cotton prices have limited downside space due to new cotton listing and downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level at around 13800. [66][67] Sugar - Sugar prices remain weak due to sufficient supply and weak demand. [67][68] Eggs - Egg prices have rebounded in the short - term. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the long - position game with a light position. [69][70] Apples - Apple futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is still in a relatively strong pattern. [70][71] Jujubes - Jujubes are in a low - level shock pattern. The new - season jujube production is being determined, and the price is expected to have limited downside space. [71][72][73]

1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，10月开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，拉尼娜现象已经形成，预计将持续到2026年初，但其强度偏弱，目前对东南亚影 响有限。 2、本周天气来看，降雨带从马来群岛西南部向东北部逆时针旋转移动，降雨分部不均匀，同时马来半岛整体 降雨量较上周有所下降；11月底的暴雨基本恢复正常，各产区降雨量都有所下降。印尼的南苏门答腊岛和北 苏门答腊岛、廖内地区土壤湿度落后于历年同期；马来半岛降雨量整体落后于近20年均值水平。 3、短期灾害性天气扰动不足，但需关注土壤湿度落后地区，如持续不能好转，或影响明年产量。 南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产地降雨量逐渐恢复正常，暂无灾害天气预期 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月08日 本周重要气象提示 厄尔尼诺指数 source： 同花顺,南华研究 厄尔尼诺指数（NOAA） 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 -1 0 1 2 3 南方涛动指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral - weak view on the natural rubber industry in the medium - long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of natural rubber is characterized by weak demand and ample supply, with the market expected to remain in a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and light - colored rubber is relatively stronger [1] - In the medium - long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, supply pressure is increasing, and demand requires continuous macro - incentives. Therefore, the industry is viewed as neutral - weak [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The real - world support for natural rubber has slightly weakened, while market expectations remain stable. The market is in an oscillatory pattern with narrowing amplitude under the divergence between bulls and bears [1] - The fundamental contradictions of natural rubber have changed little. The concern about flood - induced production cuts in Thailand has subsided, and downstream demand support has weakened marginally [1] - The inventory of natural rubber, especially in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, continues to accumulate. Tire production, sales, and exports have decreased month - on - month, and downstream inventory pressure has increased [1] - In the long term, fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment continue to decline, domestic demand growth is under pressure, and there are still obstacles to exports, resulting in a weak long - term demand outlook [1] - Weather disturbances in production areas are alternating. Early heavy rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam and floods in southern Thailand disrupted short - term supply, but later rainfall in Thailand is expected to decrease. Cooling in Yunnan will lead to earlier suspension of tapping, tightening supply expectations [1] - After the concentrated cancellation of RU warehouse receipts in November, there are more than 40,000 tons of new rubber warehouse receipts, and the warehousing is still slow, but the overall supply of whole - milk latex is not expected to be in short supply [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has revised the delivery standards for No. 20 rubber, which will introduce alternative delivery products, increasing the expectation of a looser supply of delivery products [1] - The price of synthetic rubber was strong in the early stage, and the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber widened, which may weaken the dragging effect of synthetic rubber [1] - The recent macro - environment has warmed up, with the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut exceeding 85%, and China's monetary policy has been stably continued, reducing liquidity concerns and increasing market risk appetite [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillatory range for RU2605 is 14,900 - 15,500, and for NR2601 is 1,1900 - 12,400 [22] - **Trend Judgment**: Currently, downstream demand is weakening, and upstream supply is neutral. There are still supports and pressures in the range. With limited changes in fundamentals, rubber prices are more affected by sentiment fluctuations and are expected to remain oscillatory [22] - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: The basis of RU is at a high level, with limited room for further increase. The valuation of whole - milk latex is expected to continue the seasonal repair trend [23] - **Unilateral Strategy**: There is a large divergence between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the callback opportunities at the upper and lower limits of the oscillatory range [24] - **Hedging Strategy**: It is expected that the volatility will be large, and unilateral trading can be combined with protective options [24] - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between RU1 and RU5 rose and then fell last week. Currently, the warehouse receipts are low, which is favorable for the positive - spread arbitrage under the long - position of the near - month contract. However, rubber prices are under great pressure, and the spread may be limited during the suspension of tapping in China in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the arbitrage space for spread convergence [25] - **Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider widening the spread between light - and dark - colored rubber at low levels, with the 01 spread combination referring to around 3,000 points. There may still be room to widen the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,600, with a current volatility of 26.95% and a historical percentile of 12.75% in three years. For 20 - gauge rubber NR, the price range is 11,900 - 12,400, with a current volatility of 13.80% and a historical percentile of 68.66% in three years [27] - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory, they can short rubber futures to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options to reduce price - decline risks, and sell call options to increase sales profits [28] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans, they can buy rubber far - month futures to lock in procurement costs, buy out - of - the - money call options to reduce cost - increase risks, and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [28] 3.2 Important Information and Focus of Attention 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [30] - In November 2025, the retail and wholesale volumes of the domestic passenger - car market showed certain growth trends [30] - The ADP employment data in the US was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December by the Fed rose to 86% [30] - The unemployment rate in the eurozone remained stable, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month [31] - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month [31] - In terms of weather, some production areas in Yunnan are gradually suspending tapping, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten due to raw - material competition and concentrated milk diversion. Rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia is increasing [31] - **Negative Information**: - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in November were lower than expected, dragging down the composite PMI [32] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange revised the contract and delivery rules for 20 - gauge rubber futures, adding alternative delivery products [32] - As of November 30, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber increased, with both light - and dark - colored rubber inventories rising [32] - According to the ANRPC report, global natural rubber production is expected to increase slightly in 2025, while demand growth is relatively weak [33] - In October 2025, Indonesia's exports of natural rubber to China decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [34] - The EUDR has been postponed, and the results of the EU's double - anti investigation are still pending [34] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus of Attention - Monitor the weather and tapping progress in Yunnan, the raw - material supply in Hainan, and the rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia [35] - Pay attention to the import and export of dry rubber, social inventory changes, and the repair of whole - milk latex valuation and spot digestion [35] - Keep an eye on downstream tire export data and tire production start - up rates [35] - In the macro - aspect, focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision, other central banks' actions, China's trade balance, CPI, and PPI data [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The main contract of RU has switched to 05. Last week, the 01 contract of rubber weakened, and the main contract rebounded after touching the support at 15,000, maintaining a weak oscillatory pattern. The main contract of NR also oscillated synchronously, and its positions increased [38] - **Capital Movement**: On the disk, short positions in RU continued to increase last week, while short positions in NR decreased gradually [40] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Market**: The prices of most rubber varieties decreased last week, including domestic whole - milk latex, Thai RSS3, and Vietnamese 3L [43] - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Change**: The basis of whole - milk latex is on a regression trend. The valuation of RU relative to other spot products is relatively stable. NR is anchored to Indonesian standard rubber, and the basis of other spot products relative to NR has widened, which may provide some support [46] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, the spot and 01 contracts were firm, and the C - structure became shallower. The structure of NR changed little and shifted downward overall [53] - **External Market**: The prices of Japanese RSS3 and Singapore TSR20 decreased last week. The structure of Japanese RSS3 has changed to a C - structure, and the C - structure of Singapore TSR20 has become slightly shallower [57][59] - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between RU and Japanese RSS3 futures has rebounded, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber has turned negative [61] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Last week, the sentiment in the rubber market rebounded slightly, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was flat with a slight warming. Currently, the number of RU warehouse receipts is low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio is high. Pay attention to the game between bulls and bears. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined [66][67] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry - Rubber Spot Spread**: The spread between light - and dark - colored rubber has widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk latex has continued to repair. The spread between Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber has widened again, and the spread between Thai and Indonesian standard rubber has slightly decreased [68] - **Spread between Natural and Synthetic Rubber**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber is slightly stronger than that of natural rubber. The spread between synthetic and natural rubber has retracted, and there may still be room for it to widen in the future [71] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: The overall raw - material prices are firm, with some prices rising. Cooling in Yunnan has led to earlier suspension of tapping, and rainfall in Thailand has decreased, weakening support [74] - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: The delivery profit of whole - milk latex has oscillated upward, while the profit of TSR9710 has declined slowly [82] - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: Last week, rubber prices oscillated. The profit of Thai smoked sheets has slightly rebounded, the profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased due to price decline, and the profit of Thai mixed rubber has declined [84] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: The natural - rubber production in major producing countries shows seasonal characteristics. In Yunnan, China, tapping is gradually suspending, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten [31] - **Domestic Import Situation**: In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Most major rubber varieties showed a downward trend in imports month - on - month [88] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Tire Production and Sales**: The start - up rate of all - steel tires has increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires has rebounded slightly. Tire exports have decreased significantly month - on - month and weakened year - on - year in October [105] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been performing steadily, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [110] - **Matching Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic automobile sales have continued to improve, but the high inventory of passenger cars may increase the demand pressure on semi - steel tires [118] - **Matching Demand - Heavy Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The production of heavy trucks has maintained high growth, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery has increased. However, the long - term weak fixed - asset investment may limit the growth of new demand for trucks [122] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has been stable overall, and Thailand's tire shipment index has shown year - on - year growth but weakened in the fourth quarter [124] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: The tire imports in the US have increased against the trend, and the production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable [126] - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has increased slightly month - on - month but is lower year - on - year, and the start - up rate of rubber hoses has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [133] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: The number of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has increased slightly this week, and the number of 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts has increased at a slightly faster rate than the seasonal trend [135] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 30, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with the inventory in the free - trade zone and general - trade warehouses rising [137]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The implied volatility of precious metals has increased, and the financial and commodity markets have shown narrow - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Options - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The average daily trading volume of 50ETF options was 596,400 contracts, a - 20.44% decline from the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 0.83, lower than the historical average. The put - call open interest ratio was 1.07, higher than the historical average. Other ETF and index options also had corresponding trading volumes and open interests, such as the average daily trading volume of Huatai - Baorui 300ETF options being 754,000 contracts and the average daily open interest being 1,263,900 contracts [1] - **Implied Volatility**: As of the end of this Friday's trading, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 13.36%, a 0.53% decline from a week ago; the implied volatility of 50ETF options was 10.97%, a 0.87% decline from a week ago; the implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 17.02%, a 0.73% decline from a week ago [2] Commodity Options - **Implied Volatility**: As of the end of this Friday's trading, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 16.91%, a - 0.18% decline from a week ago; the implied volatility of lithium carbonate options was 34.69%, a - 2.74% decline from a week ago; the implied volatility of rebar options was 20.43%, a 2.25% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of silver options was 39.72%, an 8.53% increase from a week ago [2]

期货策略周报 I 2025 年 12 月 08 日 产业端产能调整 本周主要观点： 近期市场的持续回落，主要围绕着发改委煤炭保供的逻辑下 展开，煤化工品种跟随下跌，需要警惕的是，煤化工品种估值偏 低，追空性格比不高。尽管焦煤价格近期持续回落，但矛盾周期 不同，保供属于阶段性逻辑驱动，而反内卷属于长周期的逻辑。 农产品的油脂油料品种，仍然维持震荡的判断，国内 1200 万吨的 采购，并不能改变大豆的供应过剩的格局。在本轮调整结束后， 可以考虑两个思路，一是强势品种调整后的低吸；二是超跌品种 的技术博反弹。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、移仓换月； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 周行情观点综述 本周商品市场继续分化，有色和贵金属持续表现强势，而黑色和化工品种持续 弱势，01合约被市场推向极致。（1）铜和铝、白银等品种，在供应端紧张的情况 下，形态突破的主升浪走势，强势不减，但黄金走势背离，需谨慎。（2）农产 品，整体呈现出震荡格局，短期可能会有抛压，毕竟我国1200万吨的年内采购量 并不能根本上改变大豆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are fluctuating within a range due to the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and the continuously weak fundamentals. The Russia-Ukraine situation remains an important short - term factor affecting oil prices. Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices, and the weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break through the trading range. It is necessary to wait for policy implementation and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within the range. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still needs to focus on the evolution of the long - term supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases substantially and the US sanctions on Russia may loosen, the increase in Russian oil exports will intensify the global supply glut. If the OPEC+ capacity assessment adjustment tends to be loose, it will also increase the supply pressure. On the demand side, the weak global economic background remains unchanged, and the boosting effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on crude oil demand still needs time to be verified [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the weak fundamentals cause oil prices to fluctuate within a range. Russia's President Putin rejected some key proposals in the US - drafted peace plan. Ukrainian negotiators will hold a new round of talks in Florida. Since the US sanctions took effect on November 21st, Russian crude oil exports have shown strong resilience, although the total export volume in November was lower than that in October. India and Turkey basically reduced their purchases of Lukoil barrels, while China continued to import in small but stable quantities [1]. - Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices. The weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery. Recently, Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price spread of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia, which further weakens the support for crude oil [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Short - term trading is expected to be stable with some fluctuations [6]. - **Base Spread, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Single - side Trading**: Trade within the range. Pay attention to the potential resistance of Brent crude at around $65 per barrel and the potential support at around $62 per barrel [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US President Donald Trump said that the US military will "soon" start attacking targets in Venezuela. The US Navy has deployed its largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its strike group to the Caribbean. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that the US is seeking to seize its large crude oil reserves by force [8]. - **Negative Information**: Saudi Arabia has set the selling price of Arab Light crude oil exported to Asia in January 2026 at a premium of $0.6 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average. The official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to the US in January has been set at a premium of $2.50 per barrel to the Argus Sour Crude Index. US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas and unveil a new governance structure for the establishment of a Gaza government and a peace committee. Russian President Putin said that Russia's energy cooperation with India is not affected [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Negotiations**: Continue to monitor whether the Russia - Ukraine peace talks can achieve substantial progress. If the two sides reach a substantial consensus on ceasefire and lifting sanctions on Russia, the market's expectation of the return of Russian oil supply will increase, which may intensify the pressure of crude oil supply surplus. If the negotiations encounter obstacles, the geopolitical risk premium may rise in the short term [10]. - **Middle East Situation**: US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas [10]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices have generally remained stable, continuing the recent trading - range pattern and showing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Disk Analysis**: Last week, the closing price of the SC main contract SC2601 was 457.1 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 0.75% [15]. - **Fund and Position Analysis**: The open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 74,972 lots, an increase of 2,242 lots from the previous week [16]. - **Foreign Market**: - **Disk Analysis**: The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.79% to close at $60.14 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.72%. The main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.01% to close at $63.9 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.44% [18]. - **Fund and Position Analysis**: The trading volume of the main contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures was 243,200 lots, with an open interest of 616,400 lots, a daily decrease of 64,000 lots. The trading volume of the main contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures was 227,000 lots, with an open interest of 307,000 lots, a daily decrease of 190,000 lots [19]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Spread Tracking**: - **Price Spread**: As of December 5th, the price spread of SC - Brent continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the price spread of SC - WTI continuous contract 1 was $4.52 per barrel, the price spread of SC - Dubai continuous contract 1 was $0.50 per barrel, and the price spread of Brent - WTI continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel [24]. - **Arbitrage**: - **Valuation**: As of December 5th, the theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 491.88 yuan per barrel, with a deviation of - 6.87% from the market price, and the deviation narrowed compared with last week [25]. - **Profit**: The estimated theoretical on - shore profit of SC was - 37.38 yuan per barrel, and the loss narrowed compared with last week [25]. - **Price Spread**: The market price spread of SC M + 3 - Brent M + 2 was $1.45 per barrel, and the theoretical price spread was $6.18 per barrel. From the perspective of domestic and foreign price spreads, the SC - Brent price spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil market was relatively weak under the background of OPEC+ production increase [25]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.61 per barrel, the previous value was 1.23; the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.52 per barrel, the previous value was 0.46; the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was 1.3 yuan per barrel, the previous value was - 5.6 yuan per barrel [28]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Price Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the SC - Brent price spread of continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the previous value was $0.58 per barrel; the Brent - WTI price spread of continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel, the previous value was $4.65 per barrel [40]. 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of December 5th, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board this week. In the North American and Asia - Pacific regions, the cracking performance showed that diesel was stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and the refinery profits were differentiated. The east - west crack spreads weakened [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - side Tracking - In October, the global crude oil and related liquids production was 10,818 barrels per day, a decrease of 31 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the global crude oil and related liquids production will reach 10,597 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 280 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 10,737 barrels per day, an increase of 141 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the US crude oil production was 1379 barrels per day, an increase of 1 barrel per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the US crude oil production will reach 1359 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 36 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 1358 barrels per day, a decrease of 1 barrel per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the crude oil production of OPEC countries was 2871 barrels per day, a decrease of 43.5 barrels per day compared with September; the crude oil production of Non - OPEC DoC countries was 1432 barrels per day, a decrease of 23 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the crude oil production of OPEC countries will reach 2784 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 75 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 2790 barrels per day, an increase of 7 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. 3.5.2 Demand - side Tracking - No specific quantitative analysis is provided in the text, but it is mentioned that global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. 3.5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - No specific inventory data for this period is mentioned in the text, but some inventory seasonal charts are provided, such as the US commercial crude oil weekly inventory (excluding strategic reserves) seasonal chart and the US Cushing crude oil weekly inventory seasonal chart [81]. 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - Some export - related charts are provided, such as the US crude oil weekly export volume seasonal chart, the US crude oil export vessel chart, the Russian crude oil export volume/weekly frequency chart, and the Russian crude oil export volume to South Korea/weekly frequency chart. However, no specific quantitative analysis of import - export data for this period is given [83]. 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - No specific balance sheet data analysis is provided in the text.

南华期货铁合金周报 ——需求逐渐转弱，震荡偏弱 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【盘面回顾】上周铁合金受到部分地区电价上调的影响，小幅上涨后受到焦煤下跌的影响后回落。硅铁主力 合约环比+1.56%，硅铁总持仓量环比-6.75%；硅锰主力合约环比+2.53%，硅锰总持仓量环比-14.6%。 【核心逻辑】铁水产量受到钢厂盈利率的下跌和季节性规律，上周继续减产，预计未来延续小幅下滑的趋 势，五大材的库存仍需要通过减产来实现， 铁合金的需求量预计将会下滑，铁合金自身库存也位于高位进一 步抑制了铁合金的需求， 铁合金目前面临高库存与弱需求的矛盾，铁合金生产利润逐渐下滑，下游需求进入 淡季，铁合金预期大幅增产的可能性不大，铁合金库存高位，硅铁和硅锰企业库存均位于近5年最高水平，铁 合金企业上周库存继续累库，环比+2%；硅铁企业库存 受到硅铁产量环比上升的影响，库存环比+1.12%，库 存压力仍存。下游需求逐渐走弱，去库依赖路径可能还是需要减产去实现。成本端焦煤周五跌幅相对较大， 也会影响铁合金的反弹。 【南华观点】铁合金面临自身高库存和弱需求的基本面，成本端焦煤价格受保供影响下， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Data Statistics - The Friday settlement prices and weekly price changes of 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented. For example, the T2512.CFE of 10 - year treasury bond futures had a Friday settlement price of 108.085 with a - 0.04% weekly price change, and the TL2512.CFE of 30 - year treasury bond futures had a Friday settlement price of 112.730 with a - 1.71% weekly price change [8]. - The spreads and weekly spread changes of inter - term and inter - variety spreads are provided. For instance, the inter - term spread of T2512 - T2603 was 0.195 with a 0.054 weekly spread change, and the inter - variety spread of 2TS - T was 301.758 with a 0.161 weekly spread change [8]. - The Friday closing yields and weekly yield changes of treasury bonds and national development bonds with different maturities are given. For example, the 1Y treasury bond had a Friday closing yield of 1.40% with a - 0.09 BP weekly yield change, and the 30Y national development bond had a Friday closing yield of 2.40% with a 7.25 BP weekly yield change [8]. - The latest rates and weekly rate changes of capital interest rates such as bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates and SHIBOR rates are shown. For example, DR001 had a latest rate of 1.30% with a - 0.30 BP weekly rate change, and SHIBOR1M had a latest rate of 1.52% with a 0.00 BP weekly rate change [8]. Other Information - Some information about the situation in November and December 2025 is mentioned, including the comparison of yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y bonds at different times, and the changes are presented in Δbp [10][12].

南华期货钢材产业周报 ——原料端让利，关注宏观扰动，下方空间有限 陈敏涛（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022731） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【盘面回顾】上周钢材价格震荡偏强，随着美联储利率决定会议和国内宏观会议的召开，市场宏观情绪偏 暖，市场预期可能会在稳地产、财政方面做出针对性部署，市场可能在提前炒作，提振了钢材的多头情绪。 但铁矿港口继续累库，铁矿估值相对较高，和在减产逻辑下焦煤的供应过剩程度加深，焦炭受提降预期影 响，周五焦煤大幅下跌，进一步影响了成材的上涨空间。 【核心逻辑】上周五大材供需双减，库存维持缓慢去库的趋势，供需平衡是在边际改善的，但目前高炉和电 炉的利润是在边际好转，盘面利润也在边际改善，主要来自于炉料端的让利，钢材减产的力度可能会逐渐减 弱，并且铁废价差走扩，废钢的性价比也在提升，电炉端有增仓的利润驱动。热卷开始缓慢去库，但库存依 然处于近5年同期较高的水平，库存超季节性累库，去库可能需要依赖减产路径去实现。板材出口保持高位的 支撑出口需求不错，但内需环比逐渐走弱。铁水上周环比下滑 ，预计后续按照季 ...

南华期货集运产业周报 ——挺价预期主导市场波动，期价阶段性修复 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 联系邮箱：songjipeng@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 上周scfi综合指数小幅回落，最新录得1397.63点（-0.39%）。其中，欧洲航线录得1400（-0.28%），美西航 线录得1550（-5.02%），美东航线2315（-4.65%）。 即期运价方面，上周四马士基发布涨价函，12.29日起至鹿特丹宣涨到3500USD/FEU。从Week52的线上报价 来看，Gemini联盟均价为3700USD/FEU，MSC为2665USD/FEU，Premier联盟2835.00USD/FEU，海洋联 盟3182.22USD/FEU。统计样本内的均值为3100.52USD/FEU。马士基宣涨的最终落地情况如何，目前也是 市场关注的焦点。运力规模上看，12月周均运力在29~30wTEU之间，并不算低。 交易上，上周02合约周度反弹9.4%。主要受到前一周现货降价以及红海复航预期等因素而导致的超跌 ...