Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report is a meteorological analysis report on natural rubber futures. It points out that it is the end of the peak production season, and the weather conditions are generally good. However, there are still some potential impacts from climate phenomena such as La Nina and El Nino on the rubber production areas [1]. - The long - and medium - term climate dynamics show that the La Nina phenomenon has strengthened slightly month - on - month, and there is a possibility of transitioning to ENSO neutral and then to a weak El Nino phenomenon, which may increase weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - Different natural rubber production areas around the world have different weather conditions, which will have different impacts on rubber production, including the progress of tapping, yield, and the risk of diseases and pests [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Long - and medium - term climate dynamics**: - **ENSO**: The current Nino3.4 index is - 0.8 (- 0.1), and the La Nina phenomenon has strengthened slightly month - on - month. A weak La Nina phenomenon may last from December 2025 to February 2026, transition to ENSO neutral around January - March 2026, and there is a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon from June to August 2026, which may increase weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - **IOD**: The DMI index is - 0.60, increasing the probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **MJO**: It is expected to be in the second phase and will develop towards the third phase, which will affect the area around Indonesia and intensify weather changes [1]. - **Production area weather**: - **China**: Yunnan has stopped tapping. The significant cooling in early January and mostly sunny weather are conducive to the complete defoliation of rubber trees. Hainan is gradually cooling, with sporadic light rain recently. Most areas in the central and eastern parts have stopped tapping, and the western and southern parts are still tapping but are expected to stop completely in mid - January [2]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: In Thailand, rainfall has significantly decreased month - on - month, and the rubber in the main planting areas may increase production in the next few weeks but will decrease and stop tapping in mid - January. Vietnam has less rain, which has little impact on tapping. Cambodia's weather is similar to Vietnam's. Myanmar has less rain, and the tapping may be postponed [3]. - **Malay Archipelago**: In Indonesia, the La Nina phenomenon and IOD have strengthened, increasing the probability of rainfall. In December, precipitation in the whole area was high, which affected production. In Malaysia, the Malay Peninsula is in the peak rainy season, and continuous rainfall still affects tapping. In the Philippines, rainfall was less in December but increased recently, and future rainfall will decrease, which is beneficial to production [5]. - **South Asia**: In India, weather disturbances have weakened month - on - month. In Sri Lanka, the flood has subsided, but there is still rain in the central and northern parts [6]. - **West Africa**: In Cote d'Ivoire, rainfall has increased significantly year - on - year in December, and attention should be paid to soil humidity changes and drought risks in the future [6]. 2. Production Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of main natural rubber production areas, including the cumulative precipitation of the current month, the year - on - year change percentage, the cumulative precipitation of last week, the weekly difference, the forecast precipitation for this week, and the forecast precipitation for the next week [7]. 3. Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - **Tropical depression**: A tropical depression may form in the southwest of Indonesia, increasing rainfall in western Indonesia, but the impact is limited [10]. - **Flood disaster**: Thailand has less rain recently, and future rainfall is limited, which may increase production. The Malay Peninsula and Sumatra Island in Indonesia are in the peak rainy season, but the rainfall has decreased month - on - month, and the flood risk has decreased [11]. 4. Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides detailed weather maps and meteorological indicator tracking data for each production area, including daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly of each layer, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [20][40][63] Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia accounts for about 1/5. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global total, Indonesia accounts for 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire accounts for more than 10% [196]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather**: The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages. New leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity. Long - term rubber supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term supply is more affected by weather factors. Different weather conditions have different impacts on rubber production during the tapping and non - tapping periods [205]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas**: The global natural rubber supply has obvious seasonality. The high - yield period is from September to November, and the low - yield period is from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times of each production area vary due to latitude differences [207].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall soybean planting in Brazil and Argentina is progressing well, but attention should be paid to the rainfall in Argentina in the next two weeks [1][2][15][39] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Brazil's Meteorological Situation - Brazil's national soybean sowing progress has reached 97.6%, and the crops are generally in good growth, gradually recovering from the negative impact of uneven rainfall in December [1][15] - In the central region, it has entered the vegetative growth stage, and the replanted areas in the east and south are at the historical average level [1][15] - In Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, continuous rainfall is conducive to most areas entering the reproductive growth stage and showing good yield potential [1][15] - In Goiás, the planting work is nearing completion, the rainfall has returned to normal, and the problems of soil moisture shortage and uneven growth have been alleviated [1][15] - In Minas Gerais, sowing is basically completed, but excessive rainfall in some areas has delayed the fertilization progress [1][16] - In Paraná, about one - third of the area has entered the grain - filling stage, and most crops are growing well [1][16] - In Rio Grande do Sul, effective precipitation has alleviated the previous soil moisture shortage and created favorable conditions for the germination of areas sown in early December [1][16] 3.2 Argentina's Meteorological Situation - Argentina's sowing progress has increased by 8.2% week - on - week to 75.5%, with a good rate of 99% and a water sufficiency rate of 96% [2][39] - The first - sown soybeans have entered the late growth stage, and the planting in the northern Pampas agricultural area continues. Recent significant rainfall in the northeast is beneficial for soil moisture recovery [2][39] - About 10% of the planted area has entered the vegetative growth stage, mainly in the central and southern regions, with sufficient soil moisture [2][39] - The second - season soybean planting has completed 57.9%, and the central and southern regions are progressing well. However, there may be a decrease in rainfall in the next two weeks, so rainfall needs to be continuously monitored [2][39] 3.3 International Soybean Annual Focus Points - January: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [57] - February: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [57] - March: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [57] - April: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [57] - May: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [57] - June: U.S. yield per unit area and Brazilian exports [57] - July - September: U.S. yield per unit area [57] - October: U.S. yield per unit area, production, and South American planting area [57] - November - December: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [57] 3.4 Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Planting period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the beginning of sowing should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the moisture should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [65] - Blooming period: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods, droughts, etc. [65] - Growth period: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [65] - Harvest period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil moisture should be about 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [65]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.49% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Black Index rose by 0.22%, while the rest of the sectors declined. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -1.27%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.06%. Among the theme indices, only the Black Raw Materials Index rose by 0.23%, while the rest of the theme indices declined. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.64%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.07%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Silver index had the largest increase of 5.25%, and the Lithium Carbonate index had the largest decline (not fully given in the text) [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - **Composite Index NHCI**: Closed at 2637.12 today, down 13.11 points or -0.49% from yesterday. The annualized return rate is 6.25%, the annualized volatility is 11.55%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.54 [3] - **Precious Metal Index NHPMI**: Closed at 1921.55, down 14.73 points or -0.76%. The annualized return rate is 87.32%, the annualized volatility is 19.46%, and the Sharpe ratio is 4.49 [3] - **Industrial Products Index NHII**: Closed at 3534.24, down 24.69 points or -0.69%. The annualized return rate is -5.65%, the annualized volatility is 13.78%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.41 [3] - **Metal Index NHMI**: Closed at 6866.03, down 4.32 points or -0.06%. The annualized return rate is 9.40%, the annualized volatility is 11.92%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.79 [3] - **Energy and Chemical Index NHECI**: Closed at 1522.34, down 19.56 points or -1.27%. The annualized return rate is -15.45%, the annualized volatility is 16.62%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.93 [3] - **Non - ferrous Metal Index NHNF**: Closed at 1908.43, down 13.78 points or -0.72%. The annualized return rate is 17.64%, the annualized volatility is 12.85%, and the Sharpe ratio is 1.37 [3] - **Black Index NHFI**: Closed at 2527.86, up 5.57 points or 0.22%. The annualized return rate is -4.56%, the annualized volatility is 16.11%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.28 [3] - **Agricultural Products Index NHAI**: Closed at 1049.30, down 1.24 points or -0.12%. The annualized return rate is 1.83%, the annualized volatility is 7.95%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.23 [3] - **Mini Composite Index NHCIMi**: Closed at 1167.06, down 5.85 points or -0.50%. The annualized return rate is -1.00%, the annualized volatility is 8.99%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.11 [3] - **Energy Index NHEI**: Closed at 961.05, down 16.01 points or -1.64%. The annualized return rate is -2.89%, the annualized volatility is 15.92%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.18 [3] - **Petrochemical Index NHPCI**: Closed at 892.09, down 9.56 points or -1.06%. The annualized return rate is -0.33%, the annualized volatility is 10.05%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.03 [3] - **Coal - based Chemical Index NHCCI**: Closed at 907.15, down 4.23 points or -0.46%. The annualized return rate is -2.55%, the annualized volatility is 10.80%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.24 [3] - **Black Raw Materials Index NHFM**: Closed at 1063.40, up 2.42 points or 0.23%. The annualized return rate is -0.41%, the annualized volatility is 15.08%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.03 [3] - **Building Materials Index NHBMI**: Closed at 688.02, down 0.49 points or -0.07%. The annualized return rate is -1.36%, the annualized volatility is 11.66%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.12 [3] - **Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOl**: Closed at 1210.70, down 3.77 points or -0.31%. The annualized return rate is -0.84%, the annualized volatility is 7.69%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.11 [3] - **Economic Crops Index NHAECI**: Closed at 919.25, down 6.56 points or -0.71%. The annualized return rate is 0.50%, the annualized volatility is 7.51%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.07 [3] Some Single - variety Index Data - **Silver**: Rose 5.25% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Had the largest decline (specific decline not fully given) [1] Some Single - variety Index Data in Different Sectors - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Synthetic Ammonia rose 1.58%, Coal had no change (0.00%), Crude Oil fell -1.62%, and Polypropylene fell -1.28% [11] - **Black Sector**: Coking Coal fell -0.76% [12] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Rapeseed fell -2.57%, Purple Seed Rape fell -0.17%, and Live Pigs rose 0.60% [6]

南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告 ——巴西中南部依旧偏旱 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月29日 本周重要气象提示——巴西 当前巴西中南部进入甘蔗的压榨后期，对于当前需要收获的甘蔗而言，需要晴朗少雨的天气，有利于机 械收割，减少甘蔗含水量，提升蔗糖分。需要昼夜温差大，有利于甘蔗糖分转化与累积。 巴西中南部当前处于26/27榨季甘蔗生长阶段，受拉尼娜影响，整体降水偏低，近期降水再度减少，土壤 湿度明显下降，近期已经处于历史最低水平。 巴西中南部近期降水减少，对于新榨季的甘蔗生长造成一定影响，当前的土壤湿度已经处于历史最低水 平，不利于甘蔗的拔节。 巴西产区地图预报：降水&土壤湿度 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 . source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 巴西产区气象跟踪：中南部近期降水偏少 土壤湿度偏低 巴西中南部甘蔗产区降水量（含预报）：一季度 source： 自有数据,南华研究 大雨 mm 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 过去20年历史区间 过去20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A weak La Niña phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, currently having limited impact on palm oil - producing areas [1]. - Recent rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has increased, with significant improvement in soil moisture in southern Peninsular Malaysia and some areas in Indonesia. However, the rainfall is not persistent, and there is a risk of soil drying in 2026 [1]. - Short - term catastrophic weather disturbances are insufficient, but continuous attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of next year [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon [1]. 3.2 Precipitation Forecast in Producing Areas - Recent rainfall has improved, and rainfall in southern Peninsular Malaysia has increased [3]. 3.3 Soil Moisture in Producing Areas - **Indonesia** - In Jambi, soil moisture has improved year - on - year at the end of the year [22]. - In West Kalimantan, soil moisture has increased, but cumulative precipitation is lower year - on - year [28]. - In Central Kalimantan, the soil moisture level is higher year - on - year [34]. - In East Kalimantan, precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [41]. - In Riau, rainfall has slightly improved at the end of the year, but soil moisture is still slightly behind the same period in previous years [47]. - In South Sumatra, soil moisture is currently low, but it is expected to exceed last year's level at the end of the year [54]. - In North Sumatra, rainfall is limited at the end of the year, and soil moisture remains low [58]. - **Malaysia** - In Johor, rainfall has increased, and soil moisture has improved [65]. - In Pahang, rainfall has returned to a low level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [71]. - In Perak, rainfall has decreased at the end of the year, and soil moisture has declined [78]. - In Sabah, cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [83]. - In Sarawak, cumulative rainfall is insufficient, and soil moisture is the same as last year [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The implied volatility has risen, and the market has seen a significant increase [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Market Data - Financial Options - 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 771,000 contracts this week, a -0.47% decrease from the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 0.88, higher than the historical average, and the put - call holding ratio last week was 1.01, also higher than the historical average [1] - Huatai - Baorui 300ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 952,900 contracts and an average daily open interest of 1,334,700 contracts [1] - Southern China CSI 500ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,366,300 contracts and an average daily open interest of 1,283,900 contracts [1] - Huaxia SSE STAR 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,210,800 contracts and an average daily open interest of 2,298,000 contracts [1] - Shenzhen 100ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 61,100 contracts and an average daily open interest of 117,100 contracts [1] - GEM ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,774,600 contracts and an average daily open interest of 1,807,500 contracts [1] - CSI 300 index options had an average daily trading volume of 91,900 lots and an average daily open interest of 197,700 lots [1] - CSI 1000 index options had an average daily trading volume of 226,500 lots and an average daily open interest of 332,900 lots [1] Option Market Data - Volatility - As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 15.33%, a 0.23% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of 50ETF options was 12.47%, a 0.14% decrease from a week ago; the implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 18.88%, a 1.47% increase from a week ago [2] - In commodity options, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 15.53%, a 0.12% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of lithium carbonate options was 52.67%, an 11.30% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of rebar options was 25.43%, a 3.86% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of soda ash options was 24.79%, a 1.26% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of gold options was 25.43%, a 3.86% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of silver options was 57.34%, a 13.60% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of palm oil options was 16.62%, a -0.17% decrease from a week ago; the implied volatility of soybean oil options was 10.43%, a -0.52% decrease from a week ago; the implied volatility of rapeseed oil options was 15.26%, a 0.33% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of rubber options was 18.83%, a 2.62% increase from a week ago [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market last week was characterized by the strong rise of non - ferrous metals and the accelerated appreciation of the RMB. There are risks of correction in non - ferrous metals and uncertainties in the long - term appreciation of the RMB [2]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there is pressure to continue rising; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and short - term trading should maintain a band - trading idea [5][7][8]. - The SCFI European line has a complex market situation with both positive and negative factors, and there are uncertainties in the future trend [9][10][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium have high - level volatility, and there are opportunities for long - term price increases but short - term risks; gold and silver are still strong, but silver has high price risks; copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, etc. have different price trends and influencing factors [14][19][21]. - In the black market, steel prices are expected to be volatile, iron ore is neutral with price support and pressure, and the situation of coking coal and coke depends on factors such as production resumption [33][34][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, the oil price is in a low - level shock, and the performance of various chemical products such as LPG, PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. is affected by factors such as supply and demand and macro - policies [44][45][48]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs need to be verified, the performance of oilseeds, oils, cotton, sugar, etc. is affected by factors such as supply and demand relationship and policy [82][83][86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The market is influenced by factors such as the two - main - line characteristics of non - ferrous metals and RMB appreciation, and there are risks in the short - term rise of non - ferrous metals and uncertainties in the long - term appreciation of the RMB [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: There is a discussion about the long - term appreciation of the RMB, but there are limitations in applying relevant theories. The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate differential is the core trigger for appreciation, and there are potential risks [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there is pressure to continue rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of the index [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and short - term trading should maintain a band - trading idea [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The SCFI European line has a complex market situation with both positive and negative factors, and there are uncertainties in the future trend [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: There is high - level volatility, and the long - term price is expected to rise, but there are short - term risks. Attention should be paid to factors such as policy adjustments and market supply and demand [14][15][17]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are still strong, but silver has high price risks, and short - term trading should be cautious [19][20]. - **Copper**: The price is affected by the game between industrial and speculative funds, and there are risks in trading around the New Year [21][23]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina has an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [24][25]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26][27]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and there is limited upward space in the short term [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a risk of short - term callback, but there are opportunities to build long positions in the medium and long term [28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited short - term improvement in fundamentals, and polysilicon is in a shock state. Attention should be paid to technical aspects [30][31]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be in a shock range [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile, with support from the cost side and pressure from demand [33][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are neutral, with price support from steel mill replenishment demand and pressure from high supply [35][36]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The future trend depends on factors such as the resumption of domestic mines and the production of iron and steel enterprises [37][38]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [39][40]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper market has a slight increase in valuation. Attention should be paid to downstream demand [42][44]. - **Crude Oil**: The core contradiction is the game between short - term geopolitical risk premiums and weak fundamentals, and it is in a low - level shock [45]. - **LPG**: The near - term is supported, and the future is under pressure. Attention should be paid to marginal changes [46][47]. - **PTA - PX**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. PX has a good supply - demand pattern, but there is a risk of callback [48][51]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand side is weak, and the valuation is under pressure. The market is expected to be affected by macro - narratives [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to buy at a low level [55][56]. - **PP**: It is expected to be in a shock pattern, and the focus is on the scale of device maintenance in January [58][59]. - **PE**: It is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, and the upward space is limited [61][62]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They have rebounded at a low level, but it is not recommended to chase high prices [63][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has limited cracking drive. Both are recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, and different rubber varieties have different trading strategies [68][70]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda & Glass**: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation; glass has high inventory and low - season pressure; caustic soda is in a weak state and is expected to be in a wide - range shock [73][74][76]. - **Log**: It can be considered to use an option double - selling strategy [78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is necessary to pay attention to marginal changes, and the price is expected to be in a low - level shock [80][81]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified. The short - term is based on fundamentals, and the long - term can be bullish [82]. - **Oilseeds**: The short - term is affected by weak reality, but there are opportunities for phased rebounds [83][84]. - **Oils**: They are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term, and palm oil is relatively strong [86]. - **Cotton**: There is a risk of short - term callback, but there is upward space in the long term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [87][88]. - **Sugar**: There is pressure for the price to rise further in the short term [89]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and short - term trading should be cautious [90]. - **Apples**: There is pressure on the disk due to the slowdown in consumption, and there are opportunities to build long positions after a pullback [91][92]. - **Red Dates**: They are expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term, and the long - term price is under pressure [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - control intensity has increased this year, with a moderately loose monetary policy. The economy is generally stable with progress. However, it still faces challenges such as prominent supply - demand imbalance. The policy aims to continue the moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen regulation, and support key areas to promote economic growth and price stability [17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2603.CFE) had a weekly settlement price of 108.280 with a 0.19% increase; T2606.CFE had a price of 108.300 with a 0.19% increase - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2603.CFE) had a price of 106.030 with a 0.10% increase; TF2606.CFE had a price of 106.005 with a 0.08% increase - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2603.CFE) had a price of 102.546 with a 0.06% increase; TS2606.CFE had a price of 102.590 with a 0.07% increase - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2603.CFE) had a price of 112.850 with a 0.50% increase; TL2606.CFE had a price of 113.070 with a 0.52% increase [8] Spread Data - The inter - delivery spread of T2603 - T2606 was - 0.020 with a - 0.500 weekly change; TF2603 - TF2606 was 0.025 with a - 3.500 weekly change; TS2603 - TS2606 was - 0.044 with a 0.000 weekly change - The cross - variety spread of 2TS - T was 301.904 with a 0.064 weekly change; 2TF - T was 103.780 with a 0.010 weekly change [8] Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.29% with a - 7.00BP change; 2Y was 1.34% with a - 3.43BP change; 3Y was 1.36% with a - 3.04BP change; 5Y was 1.59% with a - 0.78BP change; 7Y was 1.70% with a - 2.25BP change; 10Y was 1.84% with a 0.80BP change; 30Y was 2.22% with a - 0.35BP change - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.52% with a - 6.03BP change; 3Y was 1.67% with a - 1.27BP change; 5Y was 1.79% with a - 0.57BP change; 7Y was 1.94% with a - 0.46BP change; 10Y was 1.98% with a 1.05BP change; 30Y was 2.39% with a - 0.35BP change [8] Funding Rates - The weighted average price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase rate DROO1 was 1.26% with a - 1.50BP weekly change; DR007 was 1.52% with an 8.24BP change; DR014 was 1.63% with a 2.42BP change - The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.58% with a 2.96BP change; SHIBOR3M was 1.60% with a - 0.22BP change [8] Monetary Policy and Economic Situation - The monetary policy is moderately loose, with enhanced transmission efficiency and low social financing costs. The external environment is complex, and the domestic economy has challenges like supply - demand imbalance - The policy will continue to be moderately loose, strengthen regulation, and support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, innovation, and small - and - medium - sized enterprises [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - This week's pulp futures prices reached a new high since April, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton on the 23rd, showing a wide - range volatile trend as expected. The main influencing factors include foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. [2] - It is expected that the pulp futures prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range next week, with a possibility of a high - level decline. [3] - In the short - term, the futures prices are affected by the capital side, and the fundamentals are slightly stronger than before, with some support at the bottom. In the long - term, the impact of near - term warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, while the supply of long - term warehouse receipts is uncertain, which brings some positive factors. The macro - sentiment may weaken due to the possible halt of the Fed's interest - rate cut process, but there may be positive policy factors in the domestic market. [4][5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors this week are foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. The futures prices reached a new high, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton. Suzano's price increase in the Asian market in January and the RMB breaking 7 provided cost support and positive sentiment, respectively. Capital fluctuations led to wide - range volatility. [2] - From the fundamental perspective, China's pulp port inventory decreased by 8.7 tons this week, which is a significant de - stocking and is one of the reasons for the high - level volatility of futures prices. [2] - In terms of terminal demand, the operating rates of downstream paper types showed mixed changes, and the demand was relatively weaker than last week. The import price of softwood pulp increased by 0.02%, with a further narrowing of the increase, which still has a supporting effect but is difficult to drive the futures prices up further. [2] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not detailed in the document 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management of enterprises with high inventories of pulp and offset printing paper, it is recommended to short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5500 - 5600 for pulp and 4350 - 4400 for offset printing paper. [9] - For procurement management of papermaking enterprises with low inventories, it is recommended to buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5000 - 5100 for pulp and 4000 - 4100 for offset printing paper. [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The RMB breaking 7, Suzano's price increase of 20 dollars in the Asian market in January, and the further decline of port inventory [14] - **Likely Negative Information**: The relatively high valuation of futures prices and the shutdown plan of leading paper enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 [13] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The pulp price shows a range - bound trend, with the main contract range of [5550, 5650]. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations in the futures market, with a small amount of high - short strategies, and to wait and see for options. Temporarily wait and see for basis and arbitrage strategies. [13] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The SP2605 contract continued to fluctuate in a wide range this week. The RSI indicator once reached the over - bought range and then declined. Currently, the technical indicators are slightly bearish. [20] 3.2 Base and Spread Structure - Not detailed in the document Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 4.1 Supply - On December 26th, the inventory was 190.6 tons (- 8.7), which is a significant de - stocking and has a positive effect. The warehouse receipts have reached an absolute low compared to the same period. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp has gradually converged to a normal level, which is positive. [32] - In November, the domestic monthly import volume of softwood pulp was 81.99 tons, an increase from October. The global pulp shipment volume to China increased by 3.85% month - on - month in November, which will put pressure on future de - stocking. [32] 4.2 Demand - The downstream finished paper inventories of enterprises continue to accumulate, and the profit margins have declined this week, which restricts the raw material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises. [32] - The operating rates and production of various types of finished paper show different trends, and the export and consumption also have their own characteristics, which are presented in the corresponding seasonal charts. [68][73][76][82]