Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the container shipping industry by Nanhua Futures, focusing on the European Line (EC) container shipping index futures [1] - It provides insights into market trends, trading strategies, and industry news for the week of September 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [1] Group 3: Core Views - The core factors affecting the EC price are the spot cabin quotes on the European line and weak off - season demand. The continuous decline of spot cabin quotes in late September led to a weakening of the futures price [1] - In the short - term, the futures price may continue to oscillate slightly downward, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as it has reached a short - term low [4] - In the long - term, if the Red Sea resumes shipping due to geopolitical changes, or if the off - season demand further weakens, the European line freight rates may decline [7] Group 4: Trading Strategies Trading - Type Strategy - The trend is a continuation of the downward momentum. The short - term support for the main contract is in the range of 1050 - 1100, and the pressure level is in the range of 1200 - 1250 [9][10] - For hedging, one can sell at high positions, but also pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [10] Arbitrage Strategy - For the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [12] Industrial Customer Operation Strategy - For the spot - futures (basis) strategy, traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [12] - For the cabin management of enterprises with full capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. For cost management, when the shipping company's empty - sailing intensity increases or the peak season is approaching, they can buy the container shipping index futures to lock in the booking cost [13] Group 5: Market Information Positive News - In the first eight months of 2025, the EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.88 trillion yuan, a 4.3% increase [27] - The Israeli Prime Minister's statement about the cease - fire in Gaza may potentially ease geopolitical tensions [27] - In the first half of 2025, China's cross - border e - commerce imports and exports showed a prosperous trend, with a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [27] Negative News - Mexico plans to impose up to 50% tariffs on Chinese and some Asian products [31] - The spot cabin quotes on the European line of major shipping companies continued to decline in late September, with Maersk and MSC's small - container quotes falling below $1000 [31] - The SCFI European line declined rapidly [31] Group 6: Market Analysis Single - Side Trend and Capital Flow - The EC futures price continued to oscillate weakly, guided by the spot booking price. Technically, the moving averages are in a short - position arrangement, with a slight downward expectation [30] - The net short - position of the main positions in container shipping decreased slightly, indicating a cautious trading sentiment [32] Basis Structure - The SCFIS European line continued to decline, with the basis narrowing compared to the previous week. Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [34] Inter - Period Structure - The spreads of the EC2510 - 2512 and EC2510 - 2602 contract combinations widened significantly. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [36][37] Group 7: Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, major shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING, Maersk, and CMA CGM had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits [39] - For the second half of the year, shipping companies believe that the uncertainty has increased, and they will focus more on cost control, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [39]

股指期货日报 2025年9月17日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 关注预期及量能变化，即使乐观不建议急于追仓 市场回顾 今日股指继续小幅放量，规模指数整体偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.61%。从资金面来看，两市成 交额回升353.36亿元。期指方面，IH放量上涨，其余期指缩量上涨。 重要资讯 核心观点 今日股市走势整体偏强，隔夜美指回落至97下方，关于FOMC议息决议预期交易仍在发力，受此影响，与昨 日类似，今日继续表现为小盘股偏强，行业层面，前期受支撑的电新以及汽车赛道继续领涨。量能延续震荡 之势，显示观望情绪为主，目前市场已经定价美联储九月降息25BP，若会议没有释放更加鸽派的信号，预计 靴子落地后，市场或出现修正后，震荡的行情，整体影响预计持续时间不长。若出现更加鸽派信号，预计也 将在较短时间内反映完成，关注量能是否会再度持续攀升，若交易活跃度没有再升一个台阶，并且维持住， 则不建议追涨。 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 0. ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年09月17日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强压力位：80000 | 39.0% | 65.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 区间 | | 采购管理 | 产成品价格无相 关性 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划， 涨导致采购成本上涨的风险 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生 期货合约锁定采购成本 | 期货 场内/场外期权 | 买入对应期货合约 卖出看跌期权 | 60% 40% | 6 ...

铜产业风险管理日报 2025/09/17 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80880 | 73000-80000 | 8.40% | 6.3% | 利空因素： source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2511C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | ...

【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格维持震荡偏强格局，其中黄金再刷新高，盘中上摸3700，因美指大幅下跌，同时美债收益率 亦回落。周边欧美股普跌，VIX指数走高。接下来周四凌晨即将召开美联储9月FOMC会议，投资者需关注包 括降息与缩表、点阵图与经济预测表、鲍威尔讲话等信息。此外，美国对部分贵金属关税政策的不确定性政 策仍需持续关注。目前市场焦点在美联储宽松预期、美联储人事调整和独立性问题以及贵金属关税政策上。 最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3727.5美元/盎司，+0.23%；美白银2512合约收报于42.88美元/盎 司，-0.19%。SHFE黄金2510主力合约 收842.08元/克，+1.14%；SHFE白银2510合约收10108元/千克， +0.8%。数据方面，美国8月零售销售环比增0.6%，连续三个月超预期增长，实际零售销售连续11个月增 长。数据后贵金属略有调整。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 年内降息预期略有增强，目前交易员预期美联储年内大概率降息三次，9月大概率降息25BP。据CME"美联 储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为0%，降息25个基点的概率为96.1%，降息50个基点的 概率 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Domestically, policies in the consumption field will continue to be introduced due to income distribution imbalance. The economy needs government support, with the production side remaining strong. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market is concerned about the US job market. Focus on Fed Chair Powell's speech and the dot - plot [2] - For the US dollar index, there is a risk of downward break - out. The RMB exchange rate may form a "three - price convergence" pattern. It is advisable to short the US dollar index and use appropriate hedging strategies for enterprises [3][4] - The stock index is expected to be mainly volatile. Wait for the Fed's interest - rate cut to land and hold positions for observation [5] - The sentiment of treasury bonds has recovered. Consider holding long positions at low prices [6] - The container shipping market has insufficient cargo volume. Near - month contracts may fall, and short - selling opportunities can be focused on [8] - Precious metals may be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Be cautious of profit - taking after the interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled [11] - Copper is expected to be in high - level consolidation [12] - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry chain vary. Aluminum may be bullish, alumina may be bearish, and cast aluminum alloy may be bullish [13][15][16] - Zinc is expected to be mainly volatile [16] - Nickel and stainless steel are affected by the macro level, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [17] - Tin is in high - level oscillation [18] - Lithium carbonate is supported by the peak - season demand [19] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a pattern of rising and then falling. Be cautious about polysilicon investment [20][21] - Lead is in high - level oscillation [21] - The trading logic of steel products is switching. Pay attention to policy implementation and demand [22] - Iron ore has limited upside and downside space [24][25] - Coal and coke are not recommended as short - selling targets in the black series. Pay attention to downstream restocking and policies [27] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost. Focus on the impact of coking coal prices [28] - Crude oil is mainly driven by supply. It is recommended to short at high prices [32] - LPG is mainly volatile. Pay attention to PDH enterprise start - up [34] - PX - TA is in oscillation. PTA processing fees may be repaired [37] - MEG - bottle chips have a heavy inventory - building expectation. Do not short blindly [38] - PP is supported by the cost side. It is recommended to go long at low prices [41] - PE has a slow demand recovery and a weak pattern [44] - Pure benzene and styrene are in a strong - side oscillation. Observe the downstream restocking intention [46][47] - Fuel oil is waiting for an opportunity to short the cracking profit [47] - Low - sulfur fuel oil focuses on shorting the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month [48] - Asphalt follows the cost and waits for a long - position opportunity [48] - Rubber and 20 - number rubber continue to be in wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to weather and demand [51] - Urea is in a pattern of support below and suppression above, with the 01 contract expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [53] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the soda ash market is affected by supply and demand expectations, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [53] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Macro - China's Ministry of Commerce explores setting spring and autumn holidays for primary and secondary schools and promotes the opening of Internet and cultural fields. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed has been slow to respond, and the market expects a 75 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is highly anticipated [1][4] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose. The US inflation is resilient, and the market is concerned about the US job market. The RMB exchange rate may form a "three - price convergence" pattern [2][3][4] Stock Index - The stock index was volatile, with small - cap stocks relatively strong. Wait for the Fed's interest - rate cut to land and hold positions for observation [4][5] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds opened low and went high. The policy on expanding service consumption was released, and its impact on the market is limited. Consider holding long positions at low prices [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) futures had a mixed performance. The new - week Maersk European line spot - cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume was insufficient. Focus on short - selling opportunities for near - month contracts [6][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices were strong. Gold reached a new high. Focus on the Fed's September FOMC meeting, including interest - rate cuts, dot - plots, and Powell's speech. The medium - to - long - term may be bullish, and be cautious of profit - taking [9][11] Copper - The copper price冲高回落. It is expected to be in high - level consolidation due to the conflict between macro and micro factors [11][12] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices rose due to interest - rate cut expectations and improved fundamentals, but the downstream receiving sentiment was poor. Alumina supply is in surplus, and prices may be weak. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by scrap aluminum shortages and may be bullish [13][15][16] Zinc - Zinc prices were mainly volatile. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. Observe macro and consumption, and the short - term is in bottom - side strong - side oscillation [16] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel were affected by the macro level and mine - end disturbances. The fundamentals were relatively stable. Focus on subsequent macro - level positive news [16][17][18] Tin - Tin prices were in high - level oscillation. They were supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the short - term supply is tight [18] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose. Supported by the peak - season demand, the reasonable price range is 72000 - 76000 yuan/ton [18][19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures had a pattern of rising and then falling. Industrial silicon has short - term positive sentiment support and long - term structural pressure. Polysilicon is affected by news and policies, and investment should be cautious [19][20][21] Lead - Lead prices were in high - level oscillation. The supply is weak relative to demand, and the short - term is in high - level oscillation [21] Black Metals Steel Products - The trading logic of steel products is switching. There is a high - supply and over - seasonal inventory - building pressure, but there is also support from the hot - rolled coil inventory decline and pre - holiday restocking expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and demand [22][23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were oscillating. The fundamentals have slightly declined, and the upside and downside space are limited [24][25] Coal and Coke - Coal and coke prices were in high - level oscillation. The supply is frequently disturbed, and they are not recommended as short - selling targets in the black series. Pay attention to downstream restocking and policies [26][27] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices冲高回落. They are supported by cost, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Focus on the impact of coking coal prices [28] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose. Geopolitical disturbances dominate the price trend. Supply pressure is the core driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices [30][31][32] LPG - LPG prices were mainly volatile. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. Pay attention to PDH enterprise start - up [33][34] PX - TA - PX - TA prices were in oscillation. PX supply may increase in September, and PTA supply and demand are in a complex situation. PTA processing fees may be repaired [35][36][37] MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG - bottle chips have a heavy inventory - building expectation. Do not short blindly as the supply lacks elasticity and the downward space is limited [37][38] PP - PP prices were slightly up. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the recovery stage but the peak season is not obvious. The cost side provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [38][40][41] PE - PE prices were slightly up. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the process of recovery but the speed is slow. It is in a weak pattern and is expected to be in oscillation [42][43][44] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices were in a strong - side oscillation. Pure benzene has an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. Styrene supply may increase after September, and the demand has limited growth. Observe the downstream restocking intention [46][47] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices were in a certain situation. The supply is expected to rise slowly, and the demand is stable. Wait for an opportunity to short the cracking profit [47] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil prices were in a certain situation. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. Focus on shorting the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month [48] Asphalt - Asphalt prices were in a certain situation. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by rain and funds. The inventory is improving. Try long - position after the cost stabilizes [48] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices were in wide - range oscillation. Affected by weather, supply, and demand, the short - term cost is supported, and the long - term needs to pay attention to policies and trade [50][51] Urea - Urea prices were in a certain situation. The market has sufficient supply and increasing inventory. There is support from exports, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [51][52][53] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were up. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand is stable, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The domestic soybean market is transitioning from a stage of expected supply loosening to a reality, exerting downward pressure on prices [3]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for the large - scale listing of new - season grains, with low acquisition enthusiasm and light current spot trading [3]. - The soybean No. 1 futures maintain a bearish trend under the suppression of supply loosening expectations [3]. - The future import rhythm will affect the demand for domestic soybeans due to the high uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Reducing or suspending the one - way auctions of Sinograin this week is beneficial for alleviating pressure on the spot market, and specific auction arrangements should be monitored [3]. - The consumer market is gradually recovering in September, with an expected rebound in edible demand [3]. - The new - season harvest and listing of domestic soybeans are causing significant pressure on prices, and the passive attitude of the procurement end may lead to price declines [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bean One Risk Strategy - For inventory management of planting subjects with high new - bean sales demand in autumn and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean No. 1 futures with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and weakening bargaining power of sellers, it is recommended to sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option with a 30% hedging ratio at 40 - 50 (holding) to increase the grain selling price [2]. - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices and aiming to reduce procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on forward procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605, waiting for price guidance in autumn [2]. Bean One Futures Price - On September 16, 2025, compared with September 15, the closing prices of all listed soybean No. 1 futures contracts declined, with the decline ranging from 0.25% to 0.38% [4].

国债期货日报 2025/09/16 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行态度 盘面点评： 周二期债低开高走，T、TF涨幅较大，TL收复开盘跌幅。现券收益率全线下行。公开市场逆回购2870亿，净 投放400亿。资金面仍旧偏紧，DR001上行至1.44%。 日内消息： 1.《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《纵深推进全国统一大市场建设》。 2.中美双方就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。 行情研判： 因《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《纵深推进全国统一大市场建设》，债市担心"反内卷"行情再 起，昨日期货盘后长端利率上行。夜盘相关商品大幅上涨，今日期债各品种开盘承压，但此后震荡回升，午 后涨幅进一步扩大，表明目前"反内卷"的影响仍在交易情绪层面，并未显著改变市场对基本面的看法。交 易思路上，多单可逢低介入，上涨后注意止盈，不追涨。明日关注国新办下午举行的扩大服务消费新闻发布 会，可能对市场有一定扰动。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-09-16 | 2025-09-15 | 今日涨跌 ...

2025年9月16日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 静观其变，不确定性下多空"平衡" 市场回顾 股指期货日报 今日股指小幅放量，规模指数涨跌不一，小盘指数偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.21%。从资金面来 看，两市成交额回升640.17亿元。期指方面，IF、IH放量下跌，IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 核心观点 今日股市走势继续维持震荡，一定程度受美联储议息决议临近，市场鸽派预期影响，隔夜美元指数回落，美 股上行，并带动今日A股一定程度反映流动性宽松预期交易，表现为科技上行，小盘指数走势明显偏强。中美 会谈结果没有冲击性增量信息，影响有限，特朗普表示周五将与习主席通话，静观其变。短期政策不确定性 尚未揭露面纱，观望情绪下，市场涨跌均会表现的相对克制，预计明日走势继续以震荡为主，等待周四凌晨 美联储议息决议落地，警惕小道消息带来的振幅扩大。 策略推荐 买入跨式期权策略 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.25 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about potential US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, the peak season has no unexpected performance, but after the crude oil stabilizes, consider a long - position allocation. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be only one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year as the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season after the negative factors of crude oil are digested [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 17.18%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 24.55% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short 25% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 call options at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs and lock in the selling price if the price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy 50% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 put options at 25 - 35 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure is improving, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The crack spread remains high due to geopolitical concerns. In the short - term, the peak season is affected by weather, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, demand is expected to improve, and there may be one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region is the price trough due to restrictions on crude oil quotas and consumption tax [3]. 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - **Positive Factors**: Low factory inventory pressure, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Increased arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil, short - term demand drag from the rainy season in the South, slower social inventory reduction and weakening basis, and potential increase in operating rates due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3520 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3660 yuan/ton, and 3490 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract increased by 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot and the futures main contract against Brent crude oil decreased compared to the previous week [8]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal data of the 09 - contract basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast China, as well as the seasonal data of the 06 - 09 and 09 - 12 futures month - spreads [9][10][11]. 3.8 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Data - The report shows the seasonal data of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates, as well as the total warehouse receipt quantities of asphalt in warehouses and factories [13][14].