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尿素产业风险管理日报-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 11:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is influenced by frequent export news, causing price fluctuations and interfering with spot transactions. The weekend saw price softening in sensitive areas, and upstream urea factories have gradually lowered their quotes. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and short - term inventory accumulation is unlikely. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea has support at the bottom and resistance at the top, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - The confirmed urea exports strengthen the support at the bottom of the futures market, which is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern due to strong speculative pricing. On the other hand, domestic policy pressure, with the association requiring factories to sell urea at low prices, has a negative impact on spot sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2200 - 2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Situation Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management - High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | UR2509, UR2509P1850, UR2509C1950 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50%, - | 1800 - 1950, 15 - 20, 45 - 60 | | Procurement Management - Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to order situations | Short | To prevent rising urea prices from increasing procurement costs, buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops | UR2509, UR2509P1750 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 1750 - 1900, 20 - 25 | [3]
市场具备进攻势头,但上冲具备阻力
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 11:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The stock market showed a strong trend today, mainly driven by the lithium carbonate-related concepts and technology concepts. Affected by this structural market, the small-cap stocks showed obvious strength, while the upstream resource industries with previous high gains and the dividend industries represented by banks led the decline, making the performance of the large-cap index relatively flat, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed with a narrow range of fluctuations. From the sentiment perspective, the market was generally optimistic today, and the trading volume significantly expanded, rising again to around 1.8 trillion yuan. Moreover, funds shifted from the dividend industries, showing a certain offensive momentum. However, from the market situation, the bulls still encountered some resistance when surging upwards, and the upward amplitude of the central level was not large. It is analyzed that this is mainly due to the lack of strong incremental positive factors in the short term. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate and wait for the release of important information within the week [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index rose with increasing volume today, and the small-cap stocks showed a stronger trend. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 116.746 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increasing volume, and the overall sentiment was optimistic, but there was a large difference between large-cap and small-cap stocks [4]. Important Information - On the morning of August 11, CATL officially responded on the interactive platform that after the mining license for its Yichun project expired on August 9, it has indeed suspended mining operations [5]. - On August 10, US Eastern Time, according to the official website of the US Department of Defense, the Strategic Capital Office of the US Department of Defense announced the issuance of its first direct loan to strengthen the US industrial base and protect the critical mineral supply chain. As part of a broader agreement reached between the Department of Defense and MP Materials, the owner and operator of US rare earth mines, in July 2025, the Strategic Capital Office of the US Department of Defense provided a loan of $150 million (approximately 1.1 billion yuan) [5]. - Recently, seven departments including the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - Style Industrialization" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), proposing to build a financial system that is compatible with the promotion of new - style industrialization and accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse and a manufacturing powerhouse [5]. Strategy Recommendation Sell cash - secured put options [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |主力日内涨跌幅(%)| 0.43 | 0.01 | 1.07 | 1.61 | |成交量(万手)| 10.475 | 4.9078 | 9.3503 | 21.3349 | |成交量环比(万手)| 2.9586 | 0.962 | 2.3858 | 5.5757 | |持仓量(万手)| 26.4743 | 9.6586 | 22.3884 | 35.9739 | |持仓量环比(万手)| 1.4212 | 0.68 | 0.9202 | 2.5544 | [7][8] Spot Market Observation | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | |上证涨跌幅(%)| 0.34 | |深证涨跌幅(%)| 1.46 | |个股涨跌数比| 4.03 | |两市成交额(亿元)| 18269.73 | |成交额环比(亿元)| 1167.46 | [8]
南华干散货运输市场日报-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 10:35
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The dry - bulk shipping market shows positive trends. The BDI composite freight index and most sub - ship type freight indices rebounded week - on - week, except for the BPI. The FDI index also rebounded across the board. Strong demand for industrial product shipments, such as coal and iron ore, supports the demand for Capesize and Handymax ships. The number of ships docked at ports in Brazil and Indonesia is continuously increasing [1][3][7][15]. 3. Summary by Section 2.1 BDI运价指数分析 - On August 8, the BDI composite freight index and most ship - type freight indices rebounded week - on - week, with the BSI having the largest rebound. The BDI closed at 2051 points, up 1.64% week - on - week; BCI at 3342 points, up 1.4%; BPI at 1635 points, down 0.55%; BSI at 1320 points, up 4.02%; BHSI at 683 points, up 0.74% [3]. - Compared with the beginning of the year, the BDI increased by 99.32%, BCI by 165.03%, BPI by 63.5%, BSI by 46.83%, and BHSI by 23% [4]. 2.2 FDI远东干散货运价指数 - On August 8, the FDI index rebounded across the board. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1319.64 points, up 1.16% month - on - month; the FDI rental index at 1602.51 points, up 1.51%. The Capesize ship rental index increased by 3.4%, while the Handymax ship rental index decreased by 0.19% [7]. 3.1 当日发运国发运用船数量 - On August 11, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 27 ships, Russia 9, Argentina 15, and Australia 4. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 53 ships, Guinea 30, Indonesia 46, Russia 23, South Africa 16, Brazil 15, and the US 12 [13]. 3.2 当日发运量及用船分析 - In terms of agricultural product shipments, corn used 8 ships, wheat 16, soybeans 11, soybean meal 5, and sugar 12. For industrial product shipments, coal used 115 ships, iron ore 75, and other dry goods 18. Agricultural product shipments required the most Post - Panamax ships (21), followed by Supramax (14) and Handysize (11). Industrial product shipments required the most Capesize ships (91), followed by Post - Panamax (66) and Supramax (61) [15]. 4. 主要港口船舶数量跟踪 - The number of ships docked at ports in China and Indonesia continued to increase week - on - week, while that in Australia decreased significantly. From August 1 to August 10, the number of dry - bulk ships docked at Chinese ports increased by 6, at Australian ports decreased by 5, at Indonesian ports increased by 4, at Brazilian ports increased by 8, and at South African ports remained unchanged [15][16]. 5. 运费与商品价格的关系 - On August 8, the freight of the BCI C10_14 route was 27818 dollars per day, and the CIF price of iron ore was 119.3 dollars per thousand tons. The freight of the BPI P3A_03 route was 13213 dollars per day, and the CIF price of thermal coal was 536.98 yuan per ton [20].
甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 10:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints -受宏观影响煤炭偏强,能化走势趋于一致,但交割临近品种基本面有强弱差异 [4] -甲醇09合约8月港口到港多,华东华南库存基本定满,港口09前压力大;内地因宝丰持续外采维持偏强,但传统下游采购积极性低 [4] -甲醇短期见底需看到港口倒流或内地停止外采 [4] -海外本月伊朗发运快,8月发运34万附近,本月预期80 - 90万,港口累库预期偏强 [4] -09基本面偏弱,关注下游抵抗行为、后续到货压力、港口 - 内地价差及港口提货情况 [4] -本周预计港口甲醇库存累库 [5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 2200 - 2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - **Scenario**: High finished - product inventory, worried about methanol price decline - **Strategy**: - To prevent inventory losses, short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry interval of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent sharp price drops, with a hedging ratio of 50% - Sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital costs, with an entry interval of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - **Scenario**: Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders - **Strategy**: - To prevent rising procurement costs, buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry interval of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry interval of 20 - 25 [3]
金融期货早评-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:53
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's export performance was strong, with non-US countries supporting exports and electromechanical products showing competitive advantages. However, future export growth is expected to decline gradually, and the decision - makers' policies are expected to improve the price index [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar is weak, and non - US currencies are generally strong. The short - term exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB is expected to be supported in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a likely anchor at 7.20 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic economic data did not exceed market expectations, and the short - term market is expected to continue the trend of shrinking volume and oscillation. Wait for the release of domestic financial data and US inflation data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The liquidity has improved, and the primary market situation is better than expected. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The SCFI European line continues to decline. The futures price is expected to be in a volatile or slightly declining trend in the short - to - medium term [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [13][14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium resources is expected to tighten, and investors need to be cautious about holding positions [17]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [21]. - **Black Metals**: Steel products are expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state in the short term, and iron ore is in a narrow - range oscillation. Coal and coke are not pessimistic in the medium - to - long term, and ferroalloys are recommended to be lightly bought on dips [22][24][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is at risk of decline, LPG remains in a loose situation, PTA - PX is recommended to expand the processing fee, ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought on dips, methanol 09 is weak, PP and PE are in an oscillatory state, PVC is to be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene have weak short - term unilateral drives, fuel oil is weak, low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, asphalt is in a weak oscillation, urea is in a weak oscillation, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a game between reality and expectation [30][32][37][40][42][43][46][48][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Domestic**: In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The export was strong, and the decision - makers introduced a series of livelihood policies [1][2]. - **Overseas**: The US non - farm payrolls data was revised downwards, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. There were various international events such as potential US - Russia cease - fire agreements and tariff policies [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index was weak, and non - US currencies were strong [2][3] - **Influencing Factors**: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US domestic economic situation, China's export performance, and the central bank's guidance [3][4] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index oscillated, and the trading volume decreased. The futures index volume decreased, and the bullish sentiment declined [5] - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic economic data, policy support, and the upcoming release of financial and inflation data [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures opened high and closed low, then rebounded. The liquidity improved, and the primary market situation was better than expected [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Liquidity improvement, the issuance of local bonds, and the impact of VAT adjustment [6] Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) futures oscillated, and the SCFI European line continued to decline [7][8] - **Influencing Factors**: Shipping company performance, geopolitical risks, and shipping company price adjustments [8] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, affected by tariff policies and Fed news. Fund positions and inventory changed [9][10][11] - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and China's gold reserve increase [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: The price oscillated, affected by inventory and the approaching peak season [13] - **Alumina**: The supply was excessive, the price was under pressure, and the cost was the support [14] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand were good, and the price followed the aluminum price [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the fundamentals provided some support [16] - **Influencing Factors**: Supply and demand of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel, and macro - level factors such as tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose, and the inventory increased [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Mine - end news, production and demand of the lithium battery industry chain, and the suspension of mining operations [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the production and demand of the industry changed [17][18][19] - **Influencing Factors**: Production capacity changes, market demand, and the adjustment of registered brands [18][19][20] Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were affected by production restrictions and market demand [22] - **Iron Ore**: The price oscillated in a narrow range, and the supply and demand were affected by coal prices and steel demand [22][23][24] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices oscillated strongly, and the supply and demand were affected by production inspections, imports, and downstream demand [24][25] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices fluctuated with coal prices, and the supply and demand were affected by steel production and raw material supply [26][27][28] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price declined, and the supply and demand were affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical events [28][29][30] - **LPG**: The price was under pressure, and the supply was loose while the demand was slightly improved [31][32] - **PTA - PX**: The price followed the cost, and there was a supply - demand gap in August [32][33] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance [36] - **Methanol**: The 09 contract was weak, and the port inventory increased [37][38] - **PP and PE**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a state of change [39][40][42] - **PVC**: The price was high - valued and high - inventory, and it was recommended to be short - allocated [43] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral drive was weak, and the supply and demand situation was different [43][44][46] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The prices were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [46] - **Asphalt**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by weather and funds [47][48] - **Urea**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by export and agricultural demand [49][50] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices were in a game between reality and expectation, and the supply and demand were different [50][51][53]
南华期货集运周报:期价维持震荡,SCFI欧线降幅扩大-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:47
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index for European routes (SCFIS) continued to decline this week, and the decline in the US West route widened significantly. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall. The main influencing factors for the futures price this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments. Looking ahead, one can continue to monitor the changes in spot cabin quotes on European routes by shipping companies and the fundamentals of the European route market. Given that the current spot cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFIS European route are both falling, but considering that the futures price is at a relatively short - term low, it is more likely that the decline in the futures price will converge or the price will remain volatile [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily keep observing [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 2. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points, and the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments [3]. 3. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 4, the SCFIS European route, the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline in the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 8, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall. In terms of routes, the decline in North American routes widened. The SCFI US West route decreased by 9.80% month - on - month ( - 2.23% the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 10.68% month - on - month ( - 7.46% the previous week), and the SCFI European route also saw an expanded decline, decreasing by 4.39% month - on - month ( - 1.87% the previous week) [8]. 4. Spot Information - Demand Side - Not summarized as specific demand - side data analysis is not provided in a concise form in the text. 5. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 8, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 2.0%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 42,946 TEU, accounting for 0.9% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships between 12,000 and 16,999 TEU was 98,873 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 102.2 thousand TEU from last week, reaching 657.4 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 25.5 thousand TEU, reaching 221.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port increased by 24.1 thousand TEU, reaching 98.2 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 6.0 thousand TEU, reaching 103.0 thousand TEU [27][30]. 6. Spread Analysis - The current SCFIS European route continued to decline, but the month - on - month decline slightly converged to 0.81%, closing at 2297.86 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1421.8 points on Monday, and the basis narrowed slightly compared to last week. Traders are advised to temporarily observe. The inter - period contract spread combinations of the container shipping European route this week: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 635.0 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 311.0 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 324.0 points. Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37].
商品策略周报:波动率下降-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:08
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The anti-involution theme has cooled down from its initial fervor, with volatility decreasing. The market outlook is short-term bearish and long-term bullish. The anti-involution theme is a long-term concept, and it's unlikely for prices to return to the levels of mid-June. A 5% increase in price can be considered as a bottom-line support. The recent market adjustment is seen as a technical one driven by delivery and exchange position limits [3][4]. - In terms of specific sectors and varieties, the feed and black sectors are bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The anti-involution theme has gradually calmed down after emotional release and exchange position limits. Near-month contracts face delivery pressure, and high-inventory varieties like glass and soda ash still have hedging needs. The 09 contract's position transfer affects the 2601 contract's price [4]. - The adjustment in the past week was mainly due to two factors: the delivery logic of high-inventory varieties and the adjustment caused by capital position transfer under exchange position limits. Minor market rumors may cause disturbances but won't affect the long-term anti-involution trend [3][5]. 2. Variety Adjustment - Different varieties have different adjustment amplitudes, which are related to their current inventory levels. For example, high-inventory glass and soda ash have seen the 2509 contract dragging down far-month contracts, with the 9-1 spread declining and far-month contracts showing resistive declines [5]. 3. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow is 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals outflow 2.429 billion yuan, non-ferrous metals 5.912 billion yuan, black metals 2.681 billion yuan, energy 0.051 billion yuan, chemicals 2.061 billion yuan, feed and breeding 0.52 billion yuan, and soft commodities 1.663 billion yuan. The feed and oil sector has an inflow of 0.646 billion yuan [8]. - **Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: Provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non-ferrous varieties [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Presents price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various energy and chemical varieties [10]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: Offers price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various agricultural products [11].
南华期货棉花棉纱周报:棉价窄幅震荡,关注下游货-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton entered a narrow - range oscillation. The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the downstream sales have not recovered, resulting in insufficient driving force for cotton prices. In the short term, it may maintain an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking and the adjustment of the next week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of July 31, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and flat year - on - year. The cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% month - on - month and 3.10% year - on - year. In July, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and 0.06% year - on - year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market - **US Supply**: As of August 3, the cotton budding rate in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 3 percentage points behind the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, flat month - on - month and 10 percentage points higher year - on - year [1][2]. - **US Demand**: From July 25 - 31, the net signing of US 24/25 - year - old upland cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment of upland cotton was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment of Pima cotton was 2,041 tons. 135,715 tons of cotton were carried over to the 25/26 season, with a net signing of 24,789 tons of 25/26 - year - old upland cotton and 1,202 tons of Pima cotton. The shipment for the 25/26 season has not started [2]. - **Southeast Asia Supply**: As of August 1, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.6 million hectares, a decrease of about 1.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Southeast Asia Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year. India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [2]. Market Trends and Forecast - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing fast with good overall growth, but pest and disease problems in some cotton fields have intensified. The downstream spinning mills' profits are poor, with the overall load further declining. The fabric mill load has increased slightly, with a slight increase in sample - making orders, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products are slightly accumulating. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream restocking willingness is expected to improve marginally [4]. - **International**: As of August 2, Brazil's national cotton picking progress was about 29.7%, relatively slow. In India, the national cotton sowing progress is still slower than last year, and as of August 5, the cumulative rainfall of the southwest monsoon was 508mm, 3.4% higher than the annual average. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall on India's new cotton area [4].
南华原油市场周报:油价创7月以来新低,等待新驱动出现-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 01:31
Report Title - "South China Crude Oil Market Weekly Report - Oil Prices Hit New Low Since July, Awaiting New Drivers" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fell continuously, hitting a new low since July. The trading logic revolved around the weak fundamentals and the decline of risk premium. The fundamentals were mixed. Bullish factors included the decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories according to EIA weekly data, Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices, and Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports starting from August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50%. Bearish factors were the high possibility of a summit between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin and the increasing likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market reacted weakly to bullish factors, possibly due to the weakening support of peak - season demand. As the seasonal demand weakened, the risk of supply surplus increased, limiting the upside potential of oil prices and increasing the downside risk. There was a lack of substantial positive news in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether US sanctions against Russia would be implemented [2] Market Trends - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of light crude oil for September. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to Asia in September was at a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up from a $2.20 premium in August. The OSP for the US was at a $4.2 - per - barrel premium, and for Northwest Europe, it was at a $3.35 - per - barrel premium [4] - The discount on Russian crude oil export prices widened. Due to the pressure from the US and the EU on Russian oil buyers, the demand was hit, and the price of Russia's main oil exports to India had a discount. State - owned Indian refineries were considering suspending imports of Russian oil, while private enterprises were still buying but at a slower pace. The price of crude oil in the Ural region was more than $5 per barrel cheaper than the North Sea crude oil price index, compared with almost zero difference two weeks ago [4] - Indian companies continued to import Russian oil, but the quantity might decline. An industry insider said that Indian companies would continue to import Russian oil as long as the deals were commercially beneficial [4] EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 0.591 million barrels and a previous increase of 7.698 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0235 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.0453 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 0.565 million barrels. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.174 million barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 0.62 million barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day. Crude oil production decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, higher than the expected 95.2% and the previous 95.4% [6] CME Volume and Open Interest Data - The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 851,451 contracts, a decrease of 96,463 contracts from the previous trading day. The open interest was 2,045,252 contracts, an increase of 2,569 contracts. The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 170,087 contracts, a decrease of 25,973 contracts, and the open interest was 186,677 contracts, an increase of 493 contracts. The trading volume of natural gas futures was 464,152 contracts, an increase of 72,474 contracts, and the open interest was 1,589,665 contracts, a decrease of 16,391 contracts [7]
南华镍、不锈钢周报-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 00:40
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel market showed a mainly oscillating trend this week. The influence of the macro - level has weakened, and the cost support of ferronickel is prominent. The support from nickel ore fundamentals has loosened to some extent. In the new energy sector, the prices are relatively firm. It is expected that nickel will oscillate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will oscillate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [2][4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly. It closed at 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4th, and finally closed at 121,180 yuan/ton after oscillating during the week. The main contract of stainless steel had a similar trend, closing at 12,925 yuan/ton on August 4th and 12,985 yuan/ton at the end of the week [2]. 3.2 Industrial Performance - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel maintained a premium at 123,050 yuan/ton with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,440 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP adjusted to - 1.5%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 13,050 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling dropped to around - 3.07%. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron adjusted to 918.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure nickel on the SHFE was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,212 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 954,000 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,415 tons [3]. 3.3 Core Logic - **Macro and News**: The influence of the macro - level has faded, and the short - term supply - demand logic of fundamentals dominates. Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the US dollar index and non - farm payrolls data affect the market. There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September [4]. - **Supply - Side**: In the Philippines, the main mining areas are in the seasonal high - production period, with stable production and shipping. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has a slight upward shift, and the premium remains at 24. The benchmark prices of downstream products are differentiated [4]. - **New Energy**: In the long - term, the development of solid - state batteries in the new energy sector meets expectations and is moderately bullish. In the short - term, prices are firm, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment [4]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel has been strongly correcting this week, approaching the 122,000 - yuan level at the beginning of the year. The supply side has a strong willingness to hold prices, and traders generally expect prices to rise and replenish stocks in advance, while downstream steel mills are still waiting and watching [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated strongly this week, and the inventory has decreased in recent weeks. The spot market has tried to increase prices, but the acceptance of high - price resources is limited, and the trading volume has not improved significantly. Some steel mills may increase production in August, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand continues [4]. 3.4 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 37.88%, and the open interest decreased by 17.3% [5][6]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,985 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 29.10%, and the open interest decreased by 18.62% [7]. - **Nickel Spot Price**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel all decreased by 200 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.16% [8]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,086 tons to 40,572 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,020 tons to 212,232 tons, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 954 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,415 tons [9].