金融期货早评 宏观：关注四中全会与 APEC 峰会 【市场资讯】1）王文涛部长与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈。 王文涛部长与荷兰经济大臣卡雷曼斯通话。2）俄乌进程一波三折："特普会"筹备遇阻，欧 洲首次明确响应特朗普，呼吁"立即停火"。3）高市早苗当选日本首相，内阁完成认证，正 式成立。 【核心逻辑】国内层面，中美贸易局势缓和的预期有所升温，后续需将中美贸易谈判进程 作为核心关注方向，但短期内对谈判成果不宜抱有过高期待。数据方面，三季度 GDP 同比 增速如期边际放缓，而 GDP 平减指数则呈现边际回升态势；从 9 月经济数据来看，生产端 韧性仍存，需求端则出现一定回落。近期财政发力托底经济的意图十分明确，后续经济复 苏的关键将取决于内需层面的修复节奏与力度。海外方面，美国政府停摆致数据真空，市 场对经济担忧暂缓但风险仍存，预计美联储 10 月降息 25 个基点，然因市场提前定价，实 际影响或有限。 人民币汇率：高市早苗当选首相 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1171，较上一交易日上涨 60 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1250。人民币对美元中间价报 7.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the domestic soybean meal futures lies in the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China-US negotiations, with the outer market likely to maintain a narrow range bottom oscillation until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The domestic soybean futures' upside is limited by high near - month inventories, and prices may decline further due to the influence of China - US negotiations [1]. - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to follow the downward trend of soybean meal in the short - term. With limited future arrivals of rapeseed raw materials, inventories will decline seasonally. The continuous China - Canada negotiations affect market expectations, and there may be relaxation in the tense situation of the previously imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: Outer market US soybeans are centered around export demand under China - US negotiations, maintaining a narrow bottom oscillation. The US Department of Agriculture's shutdown means attention should be paid to the October USDA report for potential adjustments to previous yields. Brazilian soybean planting progress is recovering, with no major yield issues for the new crop. The domestic soybean series' upside is restricted by high near - month inventories and influenced by China - US negotiations [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: With limited future arrivals of rapeseed raw materials, inventories will decline seasonally. It follows the soybean meal's downward trend in the short - term, and there may be relaxation in the China - Canada tariff situation [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market will be in a range - bound oscillation, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2800 - 3200 [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions should be closed; consider a covered call strategy by selling 3300 call options as a covered opening, and hold previous covered positions [21]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, use option accumulation to reduce basis point - pricing risks. Consider a positive spread for the M3 - 5 calendar spread. Do a narrowing spread trade for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 contracts at high levels (650, 700) [22]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: Soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.2%. Rapeseed meal is expected to be between 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 52.8% [24]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in purchase costs. Oil mills worried about high imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: Soybean meal 01 closed at 2889 (-0.21%), 05 at 2743 (0.26%), 09 at 2860 (0.25%); rapeseed meal 01 at 2321 (-1.23%), 05 at 2303 (-0.09%), 09 at 2396 (0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans at 1032.75 (0%); offshore RMB at 7.1233 (0.09%) [25]. - **Spreads and Basis**: Various spreads and basis values are provided, such as the M01 - 05 spread at 159, soybean meal basis in Rizhao at 75, etc. [26]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: Import costs and profits for US and Brazilian soybeans, as well as Canadian rapeseed, are presented, with Brazilian soybean import profits currently better than those of the US under 23% tariff conditions [29]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US soybean压榨 profits decreased by 1.4% in the week ending October 17, 2025. US soybean export inspections decreased by 30.9% year - on - year as of October 16, 2025. There is no clear evidence of a La Nina event. ADM launched a "free deferred pricing" plan [29][30]. - **Negative Information**: Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast, with an estimated record - high planting area and output in 2025/26. There are signs of easing in China - Canada trade relations [31]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream near - month spot purchases are mainly on a "use - as - you - buy" basis [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data; Tuesday: Brazilian Secex weekly report and USDA crop growth report; Thursday: USDA export sales report; Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report (USDA reports are suspended due to the US government shutdown) [37]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Soybean meal prices declined due to China - US trade and real - world pressures. Rapeseed meal followed soybean meal, and China - Canada meetings increased supply recovery expectations, leading to an emotional price drop. Profitable positions are mainly hedging seats, with foreign capital short - adding, indicating a bearish sentiment. The soybean meal option PCR shows strong bearish sentiment [36]. - **Outer Market**: The outer and domestic markets' trends diverge. The outer market strengthens before China - US trade negotiations and weakens after Trump's statement on intensified trade contradictions, while the domestic market's trading sensitivity decreases [52]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Regional Profit Tracking - US soybean crushing profits are weakening due to falling product prices, while Brazilian and Argentine crushing profits are rising. Canadian rapeseed crushing profits are increasing due to falling rapeseed prices [61]. 4.2 Import - Export Crushing Profit Tracking - Chinese粕类 mainly imports raw materials for domestic crushing. Brazilian soybean crushing profits are declining but are still better than those of the US under 23% tariff conditions. Brazilian soybean export volumes will be limited, and domestic soybean crushing has a seasonal decline. Rapeseed imports show profits, but buying will remain cautious due to import margins [70]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the September new - crop balance sheet, the planting area is expected to marginally increase after a significant reduction in August, and the yield is expected to marginally decrease after reaching a record high. Total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. Domestic crushing demand will continue to grow, while exports are weak due to China - US trade relations. If China - US trade resumes, exports may recover. Ending stocks are expected to be moderately tight [76]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Domestic soybean imports will decline in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. Domestic soybean meal production will also decline in the fourth quarter, with 2 - 3 import ships expected when import profits are available [78]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - Domestic soybean crushing will maintain a high level but decline in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean meal consumption will have limited growth after high - level stocking [81]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - Domestic soybean inventories are seasonally high but will decline in the fourth quarter. Soybean meal inventories will remain high despite reduced raw material inventories and crushing [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean market is in a vacuum period with increased volatility due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and the US government shutdown. The Malaysian palm oil data in September was below expectations, but the export in October rebounded. The Indonesian B40 plan is progressing slowly, and there are concerns about production due to heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia. The overall downside space for palm oil is limited. In China, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient in the short term, but the de - stocking expectation is strengthened after the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term trend of the oil market is weak adjustment, and the medium - term is wide - range oscillation. There are opportunities for upward movement in the future, and attention should be paid to the relationship between China and the US, China and Canada, as well as the weather, de - stocking progress in palm oil producing areas, and new news about B50 [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the market is waiting for the final policy in November. The US government shutdown has made it impossible to obtain key agricultural data, increasing the volatility of the global soybean market [1]. - Malaysian palm oil data in September was not as expected, with limited production decline and general de - stocking progress. However, the export in October rebounded. The Indonesian B40 plan is progressing slowly, and there are concerns about production due to heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the overall downside space for palm oil is limited [1]. - The overall supply of the three major oils in China is sufficient in the short term, but the raw material supply will decrease after the fourth quarter, and the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9100 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of rebound and long - position after stabilization [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: One can enter the market to go long after the stabilization of P2601 [22]. - **Base - Spread, Month - Spread and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Consider using cumulative option to reduce the risk of base - spread pricing. For the month - spread, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will widen, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil will narrow [22]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8700, 9700 - 10500, and 9000 - 9900 respectively. Their current volatilities and historical percentiles are also provided [23]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [23]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - The latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets are provided [24][27][28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil export from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25%. The US renewable fuel blending quantity in September exceeded that in August [30][31]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of October 18 was 21.7%. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending October 16 was 1474354 tons. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory as of October 17 increased by 5.13% week - on - week [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, and USDA and US government - related information [39][40]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: After the bearish MPOB report in September and the weakening of the macro - sentiment, the overall oil market weakened. The funds in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. The near - month term structure of oils remained steep, and the market was still in a Back structure [40][41]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weakly oscillating. The B50 road test completion in Indonesia and the expected production reduction supported the price, but the weakening of the macro - sentiment and the unexpected inventory in Malaysia's report led to a decline in the market [62]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO spread remains high, and the BOHO spread decreased this week. The overall production cost of bio - fuels is still high [69]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price improved slightly and then weakened again, and the buying sentiment of domestic traders is expected to change little [72]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - The production decline of Malaysian palm oil in September was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations, which was bearish for the market. However, with the implementation of B30 in Malaysia, the domestic demand is good. The subsequent production may decline further, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease [74]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The cost is firm, the demand is weak, and the purchasing willingness of traders is low. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large [76]. - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean arrival level in October is still high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but it may decrease from December [76]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current inventory is high, but it will gradually de - stock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [76]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is large, the demand is weak, and it is expected to remain stable and weak [78].

纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/10/21 研究员：戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5200-5800 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6200-6800 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2512 | 卖出 | 25% | 6500 ...

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the performance of the Nanhua Commodity Index on October 21, 2025, including the changes in various sector and theme indices, as well as the performance of individual commodity futures [1][3]. Index Performance Overall Index - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.41% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. Sector Indices - All sector indices except the Nanhua Black Index rose. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 1.68%, while the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.02%. The Nanhua Black Index fell 0.24% [1]. Theme Indices - Among the theme indices, the Petrochemical Index had the largest increase of 0.52%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest increase of 0.2%. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest decline of 0.48%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest decline of 0.04% [1]. Single - Commodity Indices - The Gold single - commodity index had the largest increase of 2.45% [1]. Performance of Specific Commodities Agricultural Products - In the agricultural products sector, palm oil fell 0.26%, rapeseed oil fell 0.54%, rapeseed fell 0.73%, rapeseed meal fell 1.23%, while live pigs rose 0.66% and corn rose 0.28% [8]. Energy and Chemicals - In the energy and chemicals sector, coal rose 0.43%, polyethylene rose 0.09%, and asphalt fell 0.12% [6][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures market is that the US soybean market is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations. It will continue to fluctuate narrowly at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report's potential adjustment to the previous yield are to be followed. The soybean planting progress in Brazil is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop's yield. The upward space of the domestic soybean complex is restricted by the high inventory pressure in the near - term, and short - term sentiment trading is affected by China - US negotiations. - The current trading focus of the rapeseed meal futures market is that with limited arrivals of rapeseed raw materials in the future, inventory will show seasonal destocking. China - Canada negotiations affect market expectations, and it will mainly follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term. The timing of accelerating long positions depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.5% and a historical percentile of 34.2% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.3% and a historical percentile of 52.8% over three years [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs due to high protein inventory and concerns about price drops | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in case of price increases | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs due to concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal, the external US soybean market is export - demand - driven under China - US negotiations, with short - term USDA suspension and Brazilian planting progress to watch. The domestic market is restricted by high inventory and negotiation sentiment. - For rapeseed meal, with limited raw material arrivals, inventory will destock seasonally. It follows soybean meal in the short term, and the long - entry timing depends on warehouse receipts [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps. - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - In the near - term, the inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend after the resumption of oil mill crushing. - The warehouse receipt pressure of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure dominate the market. - The expectations of China - US and China - Canada negotiations have led to a weakening of the meal futures market [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2889 | - 6 | - 0.21% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2743 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2860 | 7 | 0.25% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2321 | - 29 | - 1.23% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2303 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2396 | 2 | 0.08% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1032.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1233 | 0.0067 | 0.09% | [7][9] 3.7 Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 159 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 45 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 117 | 0 | RM05 - 09 | - 89 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 42 | 0 | RM09 - 01 | 44 | 0 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2970 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 75 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2480 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 130 | - 44 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 490 | 0 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 545 | 0 | [10] 3.8 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4397.7754 | - 59.8076 | 0.005 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 4001.68 | 33.35 | 75.73 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 715.0854 | - 8.1371 | - 1.6835 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 590.0704 | - 59.8076 | - 7.1389 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 3.5993 | 8.8209 | - 0.9582 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 766 | - 26 | - 206 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1025 | - 29 | - 180 | [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. As long as the risk sentiment is not overly exuberant, the bond market will face little pressure. The market is currently waiting for the policy statements of the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of China-US trade negotiations, and it may remain volatile in the short term. Operators can continue to hold long positions at low levels, and those with empty positions can go long on dips [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated after the opening, declined briefly before the midday break, and then rebounded in the afternoon, with all varieties closing higher. Spot bond yields fluctuated, with medium and long-term yields declining. The capital market was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open market conducted 15.95 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 6.85 billion yuan [1] News - Trump stated at a White House press conference that he listed rare earth export controls, fentanyl control, and the resumption of soybean imports as the "three negotiation conditions" for China and hinted at the possibility of making tariff concessions in exchange for China's compromise [2] Market Analysis - Due to Trump's softened stance, the US stock market approached its previous high, and the A-share market continued to rebound today with increased trading volume. The bond market was initially affected but gradually shook off the influence of the stock market in the afternoon [3] Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 21 | 2025 - 10 - 20 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.362 | 102.336 | 0.026 | | TF2512 | 105.695 | 105.66 | 0.035 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 108.09 | 0.03 | | TL2512 | 115.49 | 115.41 | 0.08 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0144 | -0.0313 | 0.0169 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0262 | -0.0478 | 0.0216 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0253 | 0.009 | 0.0163 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2497 | 0.243 | 0.0067 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 77,402 | 75,809 | 1,593 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 156,544 | 154,552 | 1,992 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 265,904 | 262,611 | 3,293 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 183,244 | 181,782 | 1,462 | | TS Main Transaction (Lots) | 25,832 | 30,665 | -4,833 | | TF Main Transaction (Lots) | 45,116 | 54,788 | -9,672 | | T Main Transaction (Lots) | 76,221 | 76,613 | -392 | | TL Main Transaction (Lots) | 124,727 | 113,580 | 11,147 | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices in the next month will focus on the resumption of production on the supply side and the restocking demand on the demand side. The supply of lithium salts will increase in October due to the capacity release of salt lakes. If the resumption of production at the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine exceeds market expectations, it will expand the supply scale and push the futures prices into a weak - oscillating channel. On the demand side, downstream lithium - battery material enterprises' demand is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the futures prices [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 72,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the lithium carbonate market. Positive factors include policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage, and possible overseas enterprises' rush - to - export sentiment. Negative factors include the planned resumption of the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine and the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level for the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 72,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.4% and a historical percentile of 14.9% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.37%) daily and 3,300 yuan (4.54%) weekly. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes [8]. - **Spread Data**: For example, LC2511 - LC2512 is - 340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (88.89%) and a weekly increase of 220 yuan (183.33%) [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of different types of lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have different daily and weekly changes. For instance, lithium mica with Li2O:2 - 2.5% has an average price of 1,845 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (1.1%) daily and 120 yuan (6.96%) weekly [20]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different types of lithium hydroxide, have their own price changes. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.14%) daily and 1,100 yuan (1.55%) weekly [23]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spreads**: The spreads between electric carbon and industrial carbon, electric hydrogen and electric carbon, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices have different changes [26]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract has its own historical trend. The brand - based basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers also vary, such as the basis of Tianqi Lithium being 300 yuan for the LC2507 contract [30][31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 29,892, a decrease of 813 from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, has its own trends. The import profit of lithium carbonate also has a certain pattern [37][38]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises worried about rising procurement costs, they can use futures and options. For example, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with an 80% hedging ratio at 70,000 - 73,000 yuan and sell put options with a 20% hedging ratio [2]. - **Sales Management**: To prevent the reduction of sales profits due to price drops, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts and use option combinations, such as buying put options and selling call options [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can short futures contracts with a 40% hedging ratio at 80,000 - 83,000 yuan and sell call options with a 20% hedging ratio [2].

股指期货日报 2025年10月21日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 上行持续性有待观望 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 市场回顾 今日股指走势上行，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.53%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨1362.89亿元。 期指各品种均放量上涨。 重要资讯 核心观点 今日股市走势偏强，主要原因为股市影响因素有利空缓和，利多可期之势。一方面中美贸易谈判推进，叠加 前期美方官员讲话措辞态度转变，避险情绪有所缓和；另一方面，二十届四中全会召开之后，市场对于政策 面引导预期偏积极。除此之外，日韩股市创新高以及稳股市的一些信息释放，带动市场乐观情绪有所升温。 不过，今日虽量能有所扩张，但仍在两万亿下方，且信息层面的不确定性仍在，尽管今日股市运行偏强，但 整体并未脱离前期震荡中枢，上行持续性预计仍有待进一步利好释放带动。短期建议以持仓观望为主，等待 进一步重磅信息揭晓。 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 1.63 | 1.19 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently following the broader market in a volatile pattern, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There are expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for the 2026 quota application. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3]. - The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand. The current quotes have been rising for several consecutive weeks, the market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries, which may remain strong [3]. - The price of ferronickel has insufficient upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity has significantly declined. It may operate weakly under the pressure of stainless - steel profits and weak demand. If ferronickel loses its support, the downward space for the downstream may expand [3]. - The spot trading of stainless steel has improved slightly, leading to a small rebound in the futures market. However, the sentiment of a lackluster peak season is strong. Currently, stainless steel has a large amount of inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum is insufficient compared with the previous continuous destocking cycle. The center of gravity of stainless steel may move down slightly, but export is favorable due to WTO rulings and certification exemptions [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel (Shanghai Futures Exchange)**: The price range is predicted to be 11,800 - 12,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.79% and a historical percentile of 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,180 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,860 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 121,340 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the LME nickel 3M contract is 15,230 US dollars/ton, down 0.34% [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 60,391 lots, down 12.28%; the open interest is 50,388 lots, down 14.10% [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 27,026 tons, up 0.59% [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 52.0% [6]. Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,665 yuan/ton, up 1%; the stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,595 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the stainless - steel continuous - two contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the stainless - steel continuous - three contract is 12,780 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 126,078 lots, up 1.04%; the open interest is 188,332 lots, down 4.98% [7]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 74,497 tons, down 0.16% [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is 775 yuan/ton, up 4.73% [7]. Inventory Data - **Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel**: 47,708 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **LME Nickel Inventory**: 250,476 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Social Inventory**: 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6]. - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter [6]. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [5][6]. - The exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [5][6]. Negative Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6]. - The center of gravity of ferronickel has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened [6]. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation stage [6]. - The stainless - steel market shows a lackluster peak season, and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].