Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol (MEG) prices are expected to fluctuate within a range as the supply - demand balance remains stable with no obvious drivers. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment. For bottle chips, the absolute price fluctuates with the cost - end, and the processing fee on the disk should be operated within a range [3][4]. - For PX - TA, the near - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, mainly following cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic games. It is advisable to expand the PTA processing fee at low prices as the PX profit has recovered from a low level while the TA processing fee continues to decline [6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory decreased to 51.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 2 tons [3]. - **Device**: Some domestic and overseas devices have undergone maintenance, startup, and load - adjustment operations. The total load has dropped to 68.4% (- 0.6%), with coal - based MEG load rising to 75.14% (+ 0.14%) [3]. - **Profit**: The raw material cost changes have led to a significant compression of coal - based MEG profits, and the EO - 1.3EG ratio has strengthened slightly and remained at a low level [3]. - **Demand**: The load of polyester products has been slightly adjusted, but downstream demand is still weak. The subsequent orders are expected to be released in the peak season, and the load of some products is expected to increase [4]. PX - TA - **PX**: Some PX devices have increased their loads, and the supply is expected to increase in August. The PX profit has been significantly repaired [6]. - **PTA**: PTA devices have reduced their loads and carried out maintenance, and the processing fee has continued to decline. The social inventory has slightly increased [7]. - **Demand**: Similar to MEG, the load of polyester products has been slightly adjusted, downstream demand is weak, and subsequent orders are expected to be released in the peak season [7]. Polyester - **Price and Profit**: The prices of polyester products have generally declined, and the profits of some products have changed. The processing fee of bottle chips has been repaired [13]. - **Load and Production**: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 88.8% (+ 0.7%), and the production of some products has changed [13]. - **Inventory and Sales**: The inventory of some polyester products has increased, and the sales volume has decreased [13]. Device Information - **MEG Device**: Multiple domestic and overseas MEG devices are in various states such as maintenance, startup, and shutdown [19]. - **PX Device**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance or shutdown, and some are expected to restart soon [21]. - **PTA Device**: Some PTA devices are in the process of maintenance, startup, and load - adjustment [22]. Production and Supply Plan - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: There are production and supply plans for different periods from 2024 to 2027, with expected increases in production capacity [23]. - **Polyester**: There are also production plans for different polyester products in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 485 tons [24]. Market Data Charts - **PX**: Multiple charts show the price, inventory, load, and other data of PX, reflecting its market trends and seasonal characteristics [25][28][30][32]. - **PTA**: Various charts display the price, inventory, load, and other data of PTA, showing its market trends and seasonal patterns [74][77][79]. - **Polyester**: Charts present the price, load, production, sales, inventory, and other data of polyester products, reflecting the market situation and seasonal characteristics [107][108][110][113][115]. - **MEG**: Charts show the price, profit, load, inventory, and other data of MEG, demonstrating its market trends and seasonal features [168][169][171].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand. However, in the long - term, the real estate market is persistently sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive sectors for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained. With the gradual recovery of Australian ore shipments, the supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position after a callback [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: In the main production areas, the price of 72 - grade silicon ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5550 yuan/ton (- 50), and in Ningxia is 5500 yuan/ton (- 150). In trading areas, the price in Hebei and Tianjin is 5900 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the northern production area (Inner Mongolia), the market price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese is 5800 yuan/ton (+ 80), in the southern production area (Guangxi) is 5870 yuan/ton (+ 70), and in the trading area (Jiangsu) is 6000 yuan/ton (+ 50) [2]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: In Inner Mongolia, the profit is - 49 yuan/ton (- 134); in Ningxia, the profit is 48 yuan/ton (- 234) [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the northern region, the profit is - 98.14 yuan/ton (+ 70.51); in the southern region, the profit is - 425.86 yuan/ton (+ 85.56) [2]. 3.3 Supply - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The weekly output is 10.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5% [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The weekly output is 19.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [2]. 3.4 Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high hot metal production supports the demand for silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese. However, the inventory build - up of five major steel products limits the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space for silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese is limited. In June, the production of magnesium metal was 8.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. In the long - term, due to the sluggish real estate market, the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for five major steel products of silicon ferrosilicon is 2.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%; the demand for five major steel products of silicon manganese is 12.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [3]. 3.5 Inventory - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The enterprise inventory this week is 7.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 9.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%; the total inventory is 17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The enterprise inventory is 16.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%; the total inventory is 54.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% [3]. 3.6 Data Overview - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: It includes data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse - receipt inventory from August 1st to August 8th, 2025, showing different daily and weekly changes [6]. - **Silicon Manganese Daily Data**: It includes data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, manganese ore prices, and warehouse - receipt inventory from August 1st to August 8th, 2025, showing different daily and weekly changes [7]. - **Ferroalloy Weekly Data**: It includes data such as production, operating rate, daily average hot metal production, and inventory of five major steel products, with week - on - week and year - on - year comparisons from August 1st to August 8th, 2025 [8].

南华铜周报 2025年8月8日 铜：震荡偏强，底部抬升 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 铜：震荡偏强，底部抬升 【盘面回顾】沪铜主力期货合约在周中小幅冲高后回落，报收在7.84万元每吨附近，上海有色现货升水120元 每吨。沪铜库存小幅回升至8.2万元；LME库存回升至15.5万吨；COMEX库存继续上涨至26.4万吨，上涨速 度降低。进阶数据方面，铜现货进口亏损缩窄；铜铝比缩稳定在3.79；精废价差小幅回落至784元每吨，小幅 偏低。 【产业表现】智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）最大铜矿El Teniente因7月31日隧道坍塌事故导致6名矿工遇难， 地下作业全面暂停。随着库存矿石耗尽，包括Caletones冶炼厂在内的地面设施被迫进入维护状态，5000名工 人转至地面检查设备。此次事故预计每月减少3万吨铜产量，相当于Codelco四分之一的产能，全球电线、电 子和建筑用铜供应链将受波及。 【核心逻辑】铜价在周中小幅冲高后回落，基本符合预期。智利El Teniente铜矿的矿难事故对于铜价的影响 自事故发生起到现在存在波折 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The tin price showed a slight increase during the week and is expected to mainly fluctuate in the future. The price resilience reflects the characteristics of relatively high supply concentration and relatively scattered downstream demand in the tin market. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported the tin price and may have a continuous impact. The expected weekly operating range is between 262,000 - 269,000 yuan per ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - The Shanghai tin main futures contract slightly increased during the week, closing at 267,000 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of 400 yuan per ton on the Shanghai Metal Exchange. The SHFE inventory remained stable at around 7,800 tons, while the LME inventory slightly decreased to 1,710 tons. The tin import loss widened, and the 40% tin ore processing fee remained stable [1]. 3.2. Industrial Performance - According to Antaike's statistics, the total output of refined tin from 18 domestic smelters in July 2025 was 17,899 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. In the first half of 2025, domestic sample enterprises produced 122,000 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. Regionally, production in the Southwest, East, and Central China increased month - on - month by 3.5%, 6.7%, and 53.2% respectively, while production in South and North China decreased by 17.1% and 42.9% respectively. Year - on - year, production in the Southwest and South China increased by 24.9% and 61.6% respectively, while production in the East, Central, and North China decreased by 4.7%, 17.2%, and 50.0% respectively. Since July, the processing fee for 40 - degree tin concentrate in the mainstream domestic market has remained stable at 10,000 - 10,500 yuan per ton [2]. 3.3. Tin Futures Disk Data (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | Yuan/ton | 267,780 | 2,830 | 1.07% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 267,780 | 2,830 | 1.07% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 268,060 | 2,840 | 1.07% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,605 | 390 | 1.17% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.9 | - 0.22 | - 2.71% | [3] 3.4. Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing (Weekly) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 16,411.96 | - 2,111.91 | 14.77% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | Yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | Yuan/ton | 10,050 | 0 | 0% | [7] 3.5. Tin Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Warehouse Receipts: Total | Tons | 7,469 | 183 | 2.51% | | Shanghai Tin Inventory | Tons | 7,805 | 134 | 1.75% | | LME Tin Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 1,390 | - 25 | - 1.77% | | LME Tin Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 320 | - 215 | - 40.19% | | LME Tin Inventory | Tons | 1,710 | - 240 | - 12.31% | | Social Inventory | Tons | 9,644 | - 110 | - 1.13% | [10][12] 3.6. Tin Spot Data (Weekly) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - Ferrous Tin Ingot | Yuan/ton | 268,000 | 3,400 | 1.28% | | 1 Tin Premium | Yuan/ton | 400 | - 100 | - 20% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | Yuan/ton | 256,000 | 3,400 | 1.35% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | Yuan/ton | 260,000 | 3,400 | 1.33% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - Ferrous | Yuan/ton | 173,750 | 1,500 | 0.87% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - Ferrous | Yuan/ton | 181,750 | 2,000 | 1.11% | | Lead - Free Solder | Yuan/ton | 274,250 | 3,500 | 1.29% | [11]

南华期货废钢产业周报：自身基本面较好 2025-08-10 20:04:58 南华期货废钢产业周报 ----自身基本面较好 2025/08/10 严志妮 投资咨询证号：Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周报核心观点 供给：本周25家钢厂废钢到货量为48.4（-6）万吨，沙钢日均到货量为1.45（+0.2）。 需求：本周255家钢厂废钢日耗为55.18万吨（+0.4），其中主要是短流程钢厂废钢日耗有所增加，长流程钢 厂废钢日耗量跟随这周铁水产量一起小幅下滑。 加工基地库存：全国加工基地库存小幅上升，主要体现在华北、华南、华中、西南这四个地区的废钢基地库 存上升，以当前的基地库存/到货来看，仍处于季节性相对低位。 钢厂库存：本周由于废钢到货减少，钢厂日耗量增加，钢厂废钢库存以及库销比均呈现下滑，目前钢厂库销 比处于季节性相对低位，特别是短流程钢厂。 螺废价差与铁废价差（废钢性价比）：本周铁废价差小幅上升，螺废价差下滑，说明废钢较铁水性价比略有 回升，但是钢厂从利润角度来看，加废性价比下滑。 钢厂利润：本周长短流程钢厂利润均呈现下滑，目前长流程钢厂利润还有100多，短流程钢厂利润目 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Futures Settlement Prices and Weekly Changes**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE settled at 108.61 with a 0.15% weekly increase, T2512.CFE at 108.505 with a 0.07% increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE at 105.82 with a 0.09% increase, TF2512.CFE at 105.875 with a 0.09% increase; 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE at 102.37 with a 0.02% increase, TS2512.CFE at 102.436 with a 0.04% increase; 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE at 119.25 with a 0.13% increase, TL2512.CFE at 118.880 with a 0.05% increase [7] - **Spread Data**: The T2509 - T2512 inter - term spread was 0.105 with a weekly decline of 0.523; TF2509 - TF2512 was - 0.055 with a decline of 12.000; TS2509 - TS2512 was - 0.066 with an increase of 7.250. The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 300.870 with a decline of 0.088; 2TF - T was 103.030 with an increase of 0.020; TS - TF was 98.920 with a decline of 0.054 [7] - **Spot Bond Yields**: The 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.35% with a weekly decline of 1.99 BP; 2Y was 1.40% with a decline of 2.69 BP; 3Y was 1.42% with a decline of 2.86 BP; 5Y was 1.54% with a decline of 2.39 BP; 7Y was 1.65% with a decline of 1.67 BP; 10Y was 1.69% with a decline of 1.88 BP; 30Y was 1.96% with an increase of 0.90 BP. The 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.50% with an increase of 0.04 BP; 3Y was 1.63% with a decline of 0.99 BP; 5Y was 1.66% with a decline of 0.62 BP; 7Y was 1.79% with a decline of 0.01 BP; 10Y was 1.78% with an increase of 1.59 BP; 30Y was 2.05% with an increase of 0.16 BP [7] - **Funding Rates**: The DR001 inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.31% with a weekly decline of 0.23 BP; DR007 was 1.43% with an increase of 0.09 BP; DR014 was 1.47% with a decline of 6.13 BP. The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.53% with a decline of 2.34 BP; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a decline of 0.86 BP [7] 2. CPI and PPI Data - **CPI Data**: The CPI in July was 0.4%, up 0.5 pct compared to the previous period, and the CPI in February 2024 was 0.8%, up 0.4 pct compared to the previous period. There were also various historical CPI data comparisons [21] - **PPI Data**: The PPI had changes such as a 0.4 pct change to - 0.2%, a 1 pct change to - 0.2 pct, etc [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index dropped 9.19 points, a decline of -0.36%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and glass, with the crude oil variety index having a change of -6.56% and a contribution of -1.08%, and the glass variety index having a change of -4.06% and a contribution of -0.1% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 35.2 points, a decrease of -0.96%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and fuel oil, with the crude oil variety index contributing -1.14% and the fuel oil variety index contributing -0.14% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with lithium carbonate being the most influential variety, contributing 0.39% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index declined 36.18 points, a drop of -2.11%. Crude oil was the most influential variety, contributing -1.64% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 7.81 points, an increase of 0.72%. The most influential variety was apples, contributing 0.22% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Data Review | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2523.12 | 2532.30 | -9.19 | -0.36% | 2536.97 | 2523.12 | 13.85 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1269.49 | 1233.23 | 36.26 | 2.94% | 1269.49 | 1233.23 | 36.26 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3644.95 | 3680.14 | -35.20 | -0.96% | 3680.14 | 3644.95 | 35.20 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6437.79 | 6362.56 | 75.24 | 1.18% | 6444.90 | 6362.56 | 82.35 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1677.73 | 1713.91 | -36.18 | -2.11% | 1713.91 | 1677.73 | 36.18 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 2596.44 | 2551.46 | 44.98 | 1.76% | 2606.85 | 2551.46 | 55.39 | | Black Index NHFI | 1098.55 | 1090.74 | 7.81 | 0.72% | 1098.55 | 1088.14 | 10.41 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1098.55 | 1090.74 | 7.81 | 0.72% | 1098.55 | 1088.14 | 10.41 | | Mini - Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1186.42 | 1201.10 | -14.69 | -1.22% | 1201.10 | 1186.42 | 14.69 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1066.74 | 1112.54 | -45.80 | -4.12% | 1112.54 | 1066.74 | 45.80 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 947.25 | 958.73 | -11.47 | -1.20% | 958.73 | 947.25 | 11.47 | | Coal - based Chemical Index NHCCI | 1042.65 | 1046.71 | -4.06 | -0.39% | 1050.96 | 1042.65 | 8.31 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1071.66 | 1043.56 | 28.10 | 2.69% | 1075.63 | 1043.56 | 32.07 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 764.49 | 769.05 | -4.57 | -0.59% | 773.03 | 764.49 | 8.54 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1256.32 | 1238.59 | 17.72 | 1.43% | 1256.32 | 1237.69 | 18.63 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 896.92 | 886.36 | 10.56 | 1.19% | 896.92 | 886.36 | 10.56 | [3] 3.2. Nanhua Variety Index Strength - Weakness Arbitrage Data - The ratio of the Precious Metals Index to the Comprehensive Index increased from 0.487 to 0.503, with a change of 0.016145864 and a ranking of 0.824 [5]. - The ratio of the Industrial Products Index to the Comprehensive Index decreased from 1.453 to 1.445, with a change of -0.008658783 and a ranking of 0.214 [5]. - The ratio of the Metal Index to the Industrial Products Index increased from 1.729 to 1.766, with a change of 0.037335469 and a ranking of 0.890 [5]. - The ratio of the Energy and Chemical Index to the Industrial Products Index decreased from 0.466 to 0.460, with a change of -0.00542907 and a ranking of 0.005 [5]. - The ratio of the Non - ferrous Metals Index to the Industrial Products Index increased from 0.455 to 0.466, with a change of 0.010339471 and a ranking of 0.961 [5]. - The ratio of the Black Index to the Industrial Index increased from 0.693 to 0.712, with a change of 0.019035279 and a ranking of 0.205 [5]. - The ratio of the Agricultural Products Index to the Comprehensive Index increased from 0.431 to 0.435, with a change of 0.004663049 and a ranking of 0.129 [5]. [5] 3.3. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate - For example, the average weekly position of soybean meal was 4786224 hands, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56%, a position volume ratio of 12.33%, and a contribution to the index change rate of -1.18% [7]. 3.4. Contribution of Key Varieties to Each Index - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties were crude oil and fuel oil, with crude oil contributing -1.14% and fuel oil contributing -0.14% [1][2]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: The most influential variety was lithium carbonate, contributing 0.39% [1][2]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Crude oil was the most influential variety, contributing -1.64% [1][2]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Apples were the most influential variety, contributing 0.22% [2]. [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The view is to hold long positions. In the short term, it is advisable to be optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened higher and then declined in the morning, turned negative during the session, fluctuated weakly in the afternoon, and rebounded to close in positive territory at the end of the session, with all contracts except TL closing up. Liquidity improved further, with 126 billion yuan in open - market operations maturing and a net withdrawal of 400 million yuan after central bank hedging. After the announcement of the outright repurchase, market sentiment was boosted, and the funding rate dropped further, with the overnight anonymous rate falling below 1.3% to 1.25% for the first time recently [1]. 3.2 News and Market Analysis - The Supreme People's Court issued a guiding opinion on implementing the Private Economy Promotion Law to provide legal protection for the development of the private economy [2]. - There were two key points in the bond market throughout the day. First, liquidity improved further, including the large - scale net injection of outright repurchase and the rumor of a 5 - basis - point cut in the outright repurchase rate, and the overnight anonymous rate in the inter - bank market dropped below 1.3%. Second, in the afternoon's primary market, the newly issued local bonds reflected the impact of the VAT adjustment. The issuance rates of two 10 - year general bonds in Hebei were 1.87%, with an over - subscription ratio of about 20 times. The spread with a similar bond was about 5bp, lower than the previously estimated 10bp, indicating that investors and the Ministry of Finance shared the tax impact and market demand was good, which was conducive to short - term sentiment repair [2]. 3.3 Data Overview | Contract | Opening Price | Closing Price | Change | Lowest Price | Contract Position (Lots) | Opening Position | Closing Position | Change in Position | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.37 | 102.37 | 0 | 102.352 | | 106938 | 107982 | - 1044 | 35510 | | TF2509 | 105.82 | 105.815 | 0.005 | 105.73 | | 179748 | 183677 | - 3929 | 189483 | | T2509 | 108.61 | 108.61 | 0 | 108.45 | | 237318 | 235701 | 1617 | 230356 | | TL2509 | 119.25 | 119.34 | - 0.09 | 119.09 | | 152566 | 152143 | 423 | 160646 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0187 | 0.0113 | 0.0074 | 0.0139 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 26388 | 31989 | - 5601 | 30691 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0463 | 0.0194 | 0.0269 | 0.044 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 48873 | 50196 | - 1323 | 52177 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0524 | 0.0444 | 0.008 | 0.1371 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 59254 | 57041 | 2213 | 64489 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.265 | 0.2678 | - 0.0028 | 0.1371 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 88744 | 99214 | - 10470 | 118932 | | DR001 | 1.3151 | 1.3153 | - 0.0002 | - 0.0806 | DR001 Trading Volume (Billion Yuan) | 28839.0677 | 28816.6772 | 22.3905 | 16228.0355 | | DR007 | 1.4515 | 1.4557 | - 0.0042 | - 0.1027 | DR007 Trading Volume (Billion Yuan) | 730.6164 | 825.6957 | - 95.0793 | 472.1132 | | DR014 | 1.4939 | 1.4866 | 0.0073 | - 0.0662 | DR014 Trading Volume (Billion Yuan) | 119.5696 | 155.5992 | - 36.0296 | 82.66 | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current price of logs is within a reasonable valuation range. Although the price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost, from a trading perspective, the upward risk - return ratio is better than the downward one [3]. - The data of the 07 contract's delivery situation provides important references for future delivery distribution, including the quantity of delivery items, the proportion of the lowest - cost warehouse receipts, and the approximate range of the average warehouse - receipt cost [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction - The 09 contract is three weeks away from delivery. The 07 contract had a total of 1281 hands delivered, with 63% by truck - board delivery (20% in Lanshan, 55% in Taicang, 24% in Chongqing) and 37% by warehouse - receipt delivery (82% in Lanshan, 18% in Taicang, 0% in Chongqing) [3]. - The spot price and the far - end CFR quote have increased, indicating a rise in delivery costs [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Importers are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, import costs are rising, the overall sentiment of commodities is improving, and there is an impact from capital [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the shipping volume from foreign suppliers is continuously increasing [6]. Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on August 8, 2025, and calculates the converted basis [4][7]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation - pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.17 million m³, unchanged from the previous period but a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million m³, an increase of 20,000 m³ from the previous period and a 10.5% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 0.96 million m³, a decrease of 56,400 m³ from the previous period but an 11.6% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 64,200 m³, an increase of 100 m³ from the previous period and a 33.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,700 m³, an increase of 1,800 m³ from the previous period and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, a decrease of 1,400 m³ from the previous period but a 19.0% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was - 96 yuan/m³, a decrease of 12 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The import profit of spruce was - 87 yuan/m³, an increase of 19 yuan/m³ from the previous period [8]. - **Outer - Market Quote**: The CFR quote on August 8, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, an increase of 2 US dollars from the previous period but a 1.7% decrease year - on - year [8].

南华油品发运数据周报 ——原油发运量大幅增加，当周BDTI运价指数涨幅扩大 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月8日 一、摘要 当周（8月4日~8月7日）BDTI原油运价指数收于1007点，环比上涨9.33%（涨幅扩大），同比上涨7.7%（由 跌转涨）。 截至8月1日当周，发运量"两降两增"。美国增20.37%、俄罗斯降4.83%、沙特增28.73%、阿联酋降 4.27%。 截至8月6日，区域船舶通行量上，红海区域原油船舶、亚丁湾区域原油船舶均增加，对油轮用船需求增加， 明显利多BDTI运价指数。 重要事件关注：OPEC+原油增产、全球经济预期、美国关税政策 二、BDTI原油运价指数走势：当周运价快速反弹超2024年同期 截至2025年8月7日，BDTI原油运价指数收于1007点，环比上涨9.33%，同比上涨7.7%。 从季节性走势看，当周运价明显上涨。 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI） 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI） 3000 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI）季节性 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 3000 s ...