Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In October, the domestic soybean market is in the peak season of new - crop harvest and listing, with a temporary increase in supply. The demand is in the transition stage of turning prosperous. The supply - side increase is more obvious, and the price is under pressure. However, the market sentiment is not pessimistic, and the price decline space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the risks of price decline caused by the exit of long - position funds due to the cooling of Sino - US trade policy game [3][7][8]. - In the short - term, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has driven up the futures price, and the price of Northeast China's soybean has stopped falling. But the new - crop supply factor will lead to price decline without policy intervention. In the long - term, the new - crop supply will be sufficient throughout the fourth - quarter market, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts may show a downward - trending shock. The far - month contracts have the potential to rise after reaching the bottom [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - demand situation**: In October, the new - crop soybeans are in the peak harvest and listing season, with a significant increase in supply. The demand is in the transition stage of turning prosperous, and the supply - side is more dominant, resulting in price pressure [3]. - **Trading logic**: In the short - term, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation and the stable spot sentiment in Northeast China have driven up the price. But the new - crop supply may lead to price decline. In the long - term, the new - crop supply will be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and the far - month contracts have potential [7]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The short - selling trend has changed, and the price faces pressure from medium - and long - term moving averages [8]. - **Strategy views**: For those with low - price inventory, consider short - selling the 01 contract on rallies. For planting entities, the 2511 short - hedging strategy should be closed when selling the spot [8]. - **Basis, spread and hedging arbitrage strategy**: During the new - crop listing period, the spot and futures prices may fall simultaneously. The spot price is at the bottom - grinding stage. The near - month contracts are more affected by the new - crop listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policy purchase and improved demand. Pay attention to the spread between near - and far - month contracts and consider the strategy of selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction for the 01 contract**: The price range is predicted to be 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.84% and a historical percentile of 15.3% [8]. - **Risk strategy**: For inventory management, planting entities can lock in profits by short - selling futures or selling call options. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has led to some funds going long [10]. - **Negative information**: In October, the new - crop soybeans in Northeast China are in the peak listing season, putting pressure on the price. The quality and price of soybeans in different regions vary. Two domestic soybean auctions have failed [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - On the 21st, Sinograin will hold a domestic soybean auction with a trading volume of 40,422 tons. Pay attention to the possible turning point of Sino - US trade situation, the trend of the US government shutdown, and the release of the US Department of Agriculture's October supply - demand report [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and fund movement**: The soybean price has rebounded for the second consecutive week. In October, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has stimulated the price to rise. The main 01 contract has seen significant trading volume increase, with a gain of over 2% and closing at 4028 yuan. The registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 7290 lots, and the positions and trading volume have increased [11]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The spot price of domestic soybeans has stopped falling, while the futures price is relatively strong, and the basis has weakened. The 11 - contract is relatively weak, and the overall spread change is not obvious [18][20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Planting end**: The price of 39 - protein clean soybeans in Heilongjiang has rebounded, and the planting cost has decreased, resulting in increased planting profits. The grassroots may have a certain degree of reluctance to sell, which may prolong the price - bottoming time [27]. - **Mid - stream**: The willingness of trading enterprises to store soybeans has increased, but the profit is uncertain [27]. - **Down - stream**: The downstream demand is active, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. High - protein soybeans are favored, and the price is firm. The crushing profit has rebounded, and oil mills may increase their purchase volume [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - side and Deduction - **Overall supply**: In October - November, the supply will reach its peak, and the low point of the spot - futures price may form during this period. The price performance may be relatively mild due to factors such as low selling willingness and increased inventory - holding willingness of the mid - and down - stream [30]. - **Supply structure**: Affected by the promotion of high - oil varieties, the proportion of medium - and low - protein soybeans may increase. High - protein soybeans have mid - term competitiveness, and high - oil soybeans depend on the purchase volume of oil mills [30]. 5.2 Demand - side and Deduction - **Demand factors**: In October, the edible consumption market is turning from off - season to peak season, and the crushing demand may increase when the raw material price falls. The policy may activate the domestic soybean crushing demand, but there is great uncertainty [30]. - **Market outlook**: The edible market is the basic demand for soybeans, and the crushing market is the major variable. The overall price will fluctuate, and pay attention to the formation of the fourth - quarter low point and the price - decline risk caused by Sino - US economic and trade situation changes [30].

南华期货原油产业周报 2025年10月20日 —— 地缘弱化，宏观利空 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场呈 "短期扰动难改中长期弱势" 格局。短期看，加沙停火后地缘支撑大幅弱化，仅能引发小幅反 弹；美国政府停摆、中美经贸紧张等宏观利空持续，虽银行信贷问题暂未引发恐慌，但避险情绪仍存，原油 日线受 5 日均线压制，逐步逼近 60 美元支撑。中长期而言，基本面持续转弱，无实质性利好支撑，市场逻辑 以利空为主，波动重心不断下移。若 Brent 60 美元支撑失守，下方空间或进一步扩大，后续需警惕中期跌势 形成，补全第四轮波动周期最后一段，整体仍需优先关注下行风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油E ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. Core Views of the Report - The core logic of the domestic market is that after the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the asset reaction this week was weaker than in April. A-shares showed a "high-low switch" feature. Before the APEC meeting, the market was still affected by friction news. Although both sides were likely to negotiate cautiously, an unexpected escalation could trigger risks. Commodity prices were unlikely to show a trend upward. Overseas, the US government shutdown led to a data vacuum, and market concerns about the economy eased but risks remained. The Fed was expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact might be limited due to market pre-pricing [2]. - The RMB exchange rate was expected to remain basically stable within a reasonable range under the policy tone of "stability first", especially before the important meeting at the end of October [4]. - Stock index fluctuations were expected to intensify, but there was support below. The market was likely to be dominated by large-cap stock indices [7]. - Treasury bonds needed to focus on whether risk sentiment would recover. If risk sentiment recovered and the stock market rebounded, the bond market might not rise further. But before the Sino-US negotiation results were finalized, it was generally favorable for the bond market [9]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures were expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The main contract EC2512 was expected to be supported at 1600 points and resisted near 1750 points [11]. - Precious metals were recommended to be cautious in the short term and bullish in the medium term [16]. - Copper prices were expected to be in a high-level consolidation if the bullish factors did not ferment. For downstream enterprises, a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures at low prices" was recommended [19]. - Aluminum was expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina was expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy was expected to fluctuate at a high level [21]. - Zinc was expected to fluctuate mainly, with the long and short sides still unclear [22]. - Nickel and stainless steel were expected to fluctuate repeatedly due to prominent inventory accumulation [24]. - Tin was expected to fluctuate narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, the supply was weaker than the demand, and it was still regarded as a long position [25]. - Lead was expected to fluctuate narrowly, with limited upside space [26]. - Steel prices might rebound slightly, but the rebound height was limited due to the weak fundamentals of steel, and the possibility of subsequent decline was relatively large [28]. - Iron ore prices were under short-term pressure, and the focus of the market in the next two weeks might be on the Fourth Plenary Session and possible Sino-US talks [30]. - Coking coal and coke were expected to be treated with a volatile mindset, with coking coal in the range of (1100, 1350) and coke in the range of (1600, 1850) [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand. If there were no unexpected stimulus policies, their prices would still be under pressure [33]. - Crude oil was expected to face downward risks in the short and medium term, with the support at $60 being crucial [37]. - LPG was relatively strong in the domestic market due to restricted arrivals, but the overall situation was still affected by the weak fundamentals of crude oil [39]. - PTA-PX was recommended to be observed in the short term, paying attention to domestic and foreign macro nodes [40]. - MEG was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, following the macro sentiment. If there was an oversell, selling put options could be considered [46]. - Methanol was expected to fluctuate under pressure, with the price range maintaining at 2250 - 2350 [47]. - PP was under pressure due to the supply-demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations [50]. - PE was also under pressure due to the supply-demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations [54]. - Pure benzene and styrene were mainly affected by macro factors. Short-term observation was recommended until the macro situation became clear [57]. - Fuel oil's cracking upside space was limited [58]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil's cracking was expected to remain at a low level, with limited upward drive [59]. - Asphalt was expected to decline weakly. Short-term observation was recommended, paying attention to whether there were new demand growth points in the domestic macro meeting [62]. - Rubber and 20 rubber were expected to fluctuate weakly. RU2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 14600 - 15300, and NR2511 in the range of 12000 - 12500 [64]. - Urea was expected to fluctuate under pressure. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro sentiment [65]. - Soda ash was expected to be volatile due to the increase in supply pressure and inventory. The price was limited by high inventory but supported by cost [66]. - Glass was under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to industrial policies [67]. - Caustic soda was expected to wait for the spot to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The long-term production pressure continued [69]. - Pulp was expected to continue the oscillatory pattern, and offset paper was still under pressure [70]. - Logs needed to pay attention to the marginal bullish impact on the far-month contracts under the influence of shipping sanctions [70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee was held from October 20th to 23rd to study the suggestions for formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan". - He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. - The State Council Executive Meeting proposed to promote logistics cost reduction, improve the green trade policy system, and support market entities to increase grain purchases. - The US imposed tariffs on medium and heavy trucks and buses starting from November 1st, and the Trump administration adjusted its strategy to hedge legal risks. - Japan's ruling coalition was basically reached, but the future of the "Hayashi deal" was uncertain [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1265 at 16:30 on the previous trading day, down 16 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1277 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0949, up 19 basis points. - The RMB exchange rate was expected to remain stable due to policy guidance and the influence of external factors [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated more due to external factors, but there was support below. The market was likely to be dominated by large-cap stock indices. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade negotiations, the Fourth Plenary Session, the Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, and the Fed's interest rate meeting [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds needed to focus on whether risk sentiment would recover. If risk sentiment recovered and the stock market rebounded, the bond market might not rise further. But before the Sino-US negotiation results were finalized, it was generally favorable for the bond market. Low-position long orders could be held in small quantities, and those with empty positions could wait for the price to fall to build positions [9]. Container Shipping European Line - The container shipping index (European line) futures were expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The main contract EC2512 was expected to be supported at 1600 points and resisted near 1750 points. Trend traders could try to go long lightly at the support of 1600 points, and arbitrage traders could pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of EC2512 - EC2602 [10][11]. Commodities Precious Metals - Precious metals were recommended to be cautious in the short term and bullish in the medium term. Silver was affected by spot shortages and short squeeze pressure, and the "232 investigation" on silver and palladium in the US also had an impact. The US government shutdown, trade tariff conflicts, and rising banking risks increased economic and financial risks, leading to an increase in the demand for precious metals as a safe-haven asset [13][16]. Copper - Copper prices were expected to be in a high-level consolidation if the bullish factors did not ferment. For downstream enterprises, a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures at low prices" was recommended. The downstream enterprises generally resisted high copper prices, and the destocking was the main theme at present [17][19]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum was expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina was expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The domestic aluminum market was supported by inventory destocking, while alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had strong followability to aluminum [20][21]. Zinc - Zinc was expected to fluctuate mainly, with the long and short sides still unclear. The export window was open, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro upward drive [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel were expected to fluctuate repeatedly due to prominent inventory accumulation. The supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel were affected by factors such as tariffs, production capacity, and inventory. Attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff issues and the expectation of interest rate cuts [23][24]. Tin - Tin was expected to fluctuate narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, the supply was weaker than the demand, and it was still regarded as a long position. The support was expected to be around 276,000 yuan [25]. Lead - Lead was expected to fluctuate narrowly, with limited upside space. The supply was affected by silver prices and raw material restrictions, and the demand was affected by domestic consumption and export demand. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [26]. Black Metals - Steel prices might rebound slightly, but the rebound height was limited due to the weak fundamentals of steel, and the possibility of subsequent decline was relatively large. Iron ore prices were under short-term pressure, and the focus of the market in the next two weeks might be on the Fourth Plenary Session and possible Sino-US talks. Coking coal and coke were expected to be treated with a volatile mindset, with coking coal in the range of (1100, 1350) and coke in the range of (1600, 1850). Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand. If there were no unexpected stimulus policies, their prices would still be under pressure [28][30][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil was expected to face downward risks in the short and medium term, with the support at $60 being crucial. LPG was relatively strong in the domestic market due to restricted arrivals, but the overall situation was still affected by the weak fundamentals of crude oil. PTA - PX was recommended to be observed in the short term, paying attention to domestic and foreign macro nodes. MEG was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, following the macro sentiment. If there was an oversell, selling put options could be considered. Methanol was expected to fluctuate under pressure, with the price range maintaining at 2250 - 2350. PP and PE were under pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations. Pure benzene and styrene were mainly affected by macro factors. Short - term observation was recommended until the macro situation became clear. Fuel oil's cracking upside space was limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking was expected to remain at a low level, with limited upward drive. Asphalt was expected to decline weakly. Short - term observation was recommended, paying attention to whether there were new demand growth points in the domestic macro meeting [36][37][39]. Rubber and 20 Rubber - Rubber and 20 rubber were expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply was affected by weather and inventory, and the demand was affected by factors such as tire sales, export, and automobile inventory. RU2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 14600 - 15300, and NR2511 in the range of 12000 - 12500 [63][64]. Urea - Urea was expected to fluctuate under pressure. The demand was weak, and the inventory increased. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro sentiment [65]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash was expected to be volatile due to the increase in supply pressure and inventory. The price was limited by high inventory but supported by cost. Glass was under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to industrial policies. Caustic soda was expected to wait for the spot to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The long - term production pressure continued [66][67][69]. Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp was expected to continue the oscillatory pattern, and offset paper was still under pressure. Pulp was affected by high inventory and cost support, and offset paper was affected by supply - demand mismatch [70]. Logs - Logs needed to pay attention to the marginal bullish impact on the far - month contracts under the influence of shipping sanctions [70].

南华期货钢材产业周报 ——节后需求回升有限，库存压力仍较大，关注会议能否企稳 陈敏涛（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022731） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月19日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周钢材的需求环比回升，但属于节假日规律，仍不及往年同期。其中螺纹钢需求220万吨，四季度螺纹需求 高点一般出现在国庆节前后，预计未来螺纹需求量环比走弱的概率较高；供应端长流程减产，但部分被短流 程的增产抵消，目前长流程和短流程螺纹利润持续下滑，短流程成本较高，供应端需关注短流程边际供应的 减产节奏，螺纹的供需平衡仍需要通过减产来实现；螺纹库存中性，但仓单库存在10合约交割后仍较高，短 期认为螺纹价格仍将承压。热卷产量回落但仍处于季节性高位，库存出现超季节性累库，对热卷价格也形成 压制，现阶段热卷基本面压力增大，暂不建议做多卷落差。当前高供应背景下需求不足的问题持续凸显，钢 材整体去库压力显著，钢厂利润处于收缩状态，负反馈压力仍在不断积蓄。近期主要关注的焦点还是在于下 周召开的四中全会，市场博弈会议是否会出台刺激政策，钢材价格出现反弹迹象，但若没有出台超预期的刺 激政策 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current contradiction affecting copper price trends lies between the expected bullish factors such as enhanced liquidity from interest - rate cut expectations, increased demand from terminal sectors, supply shortages from mine - end contractions, and the exit of excess capacity, and the actual bearish factors including decreased demand orders from mid - and downstream enterprises, inventory accumulation in mid - stream processing enterprises, and reduced raw material procurement willingness of smelting enterprises. The co - existence of long - term bullish and short - term bearish factors has led to significant price fluctuations, and a "defensive and offensive" trading strategy is recommended [2]. - In the short term, the cost - optimization strategy of the "buying call options + selling put options" strategy is recommended considering the expected high - level adjustment of copper prices [11]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the domestic electrolytic copper supply is expected to decline, the apparent consumption may decrease, but the refined copper consumption of downstream enterprises remains resilient. Copper prices are expected to be "bottom - supported and top - capped", with greater upward potential if macro factors are favorable [52]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - The current copper market is affected by the contradiction between expected bullish factors and actual bearish factors, along with high global copper inventory and intensified regional imbalance, leading to increased price volatility [2]. - Near - term trading logic: The 2510 contract delivery was light. The 2511 contract was shifted to the 2512 contract, increasing its position. Regional contradictions in global copper inventory are prominent, with LME and domestic copper inventories at low levels supporting futures prices, while high COMEX copper inventory raises concerns about squeeze risks [5]. - Long - term trading expectations: Interest - rate cuts are expected to bring marginal liquidity benefits to copper prices. Mine - end supply disruptions have led institutions to be bullish on copper prices in the next two years. Tight mine - end supply has worsened domestic copper concentrate smelting profits, and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations may also affect copper prices [7][8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestions - **Market positioning**: The trend is upward with a neutral cycle. The price ranges are [81189, 86570] for Shanghai copper and [10092, 10930] for LME copper. For short - term traders, the current price has a low cost - performance for going long [11]. - **Strategy suggestions**: The "buying futures + selling put options" combination strategy has different profit and loss scenarios based on price movements. The "buying call options + selling put options" strategy has three sub - strategies, and the cost - optimization strategy is recommended in the short term [11]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short Shanghai copper futures at the pressure level or sell call options/buy put options. For those with low raw - material inventory and future market - price procurement plans, they can buy futures at the support level or sell put options and buy futures [20]. 1.4 Trading Strategy and Hedging Strategy Review No relevant content provided. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretation 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish information**: Chile's Codelco raised its 2026 copper premium. The Trump administration provided financing for power grid upgrades. Peru's copper production decreased in August. BMI expects future copper supply growth to lag behind demand [21]. - **Bearish information**: BHP is considering reopening mines. Domestic copper inventories increased. The开工率 of domestic copper rod and brass rod enterprises showed mixed trends, and enterprises remained cautious in inventory management [22]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretation Next week, several macro - economic indicators will be released, including China's LPR, fixed - asset investment, GDP, and the US industrial output and CPI. These indicators may have direct or indirect impacts on copper prices [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation - The domestic copper futures price was in a high - level consolidation last week, with a backwardation structure in the monthly spread. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai copper weighted index decreased, leading to a decline in market speculation. The net long position of the top 20 futures companies also decreased, resulting in weak price increases [27]. 3.2 Overseas Market Interpretation - The overseas copper price performed stronger than the domestic market last week, but the increase was limited. The LME copper price rose by 2.28% and the COMEX copper price by 3.15%. The LME copper premium declined, and global copper inventory continued to shift to the US. However, the speculative net long funds for LME copper increased [29]. Chapter 4: Spot Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit - The spot prices of electrolytic copper and scrap copper decreased last week. The premium of electrolytic copper increased slightly, while the refined - scrap spread weakened in the second half of the week. The upper and lower boundaries of the spot smelting income of copper concentrates increased, indicating that smelters may be increasing scrap copper usage and reducing costs [33]. 4.2 Import Price and Profit - The Yangshan copper premium weakened last week, and the copper import profit was at a low level, which may affect copper imports and future domestic copper inventory accumulation [37]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis - Copper inventory shows a "regional" characteristic, with a significant increase in COMEX copper, a decrease in LME copper inventory, and a slow increase in Shanghai copper inventory. The low port copper concentrate inventory and weak import willingness of traders have led to slow inventory growth. There may be an arbitrage opportunity of shorting LME copper and going long COMEX copper if the 2024 April market situation is replicated [41]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply is expected to have a deficit of 326,000 metal tons. Domestic copper smelting enterprises had concentrated maintenance in October, affecting refined copper production. In Q4 2025, electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 190,000 tons, imports remain unchanged, and exports decrease by 70,000 tons [46]. 5.2 Demand Expectation - In October, the copper foil industry's开工率 is expected to rise, while the开工 rates of copper rod, copper bar, and enameled wire industries are expected to decline. Overall, copper product output is expected to show a mixed trend, with copper foil output increasing and others decreasing [49][50]. 5.3 Price Expectation - In the fourth quarter, domestic electrolytic copper supply is expected to decline, apparent consumption to decrease, but refined copper consumption to increase, inventory to decrease, and prices to be "bottom - supported and top - capped", with greater upward potential if macro factors are favorable [52].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the imbalance between high supply and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the conflict between anti - involution expectations and weak reality. Ferroalloy prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and international trade frictions. However, there is also a possibility of short - term rebounds driven by market expectations for policy changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The contradiction between high supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production profit is declining, and downstream demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season. Silicon iron production has started to decline, while silicon manganese production increased slightly this week. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese inventories are at a five - year high, with silicon iron enterprise inventory up 4.5% and silicon manganese enterprise inventory up 8.2% week - on - week [2]. - Challenges to cost support: Although the prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the high - supply and weak - demand pattern challenges the effectiveness of cost support. The rising coking coal price provides some support, but there is a risk of price decline if the meeting results are disappointing [2]. - The contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality: The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, but there is a lack of substantial action, leading to a high risk of price fluctuations. International trade frictions and weak steel fundamentals further suppress ferroalloy demand [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Technically, the 10 - day moving average of ferroalloy is moving downwards and has broken below the 60 - day moving average. However, the shrinking green bars of MACD indicate weakening downward momentum. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound, but there will be pressure on the upside due to the poor fundamentals [12]. - **Price range**: The price range of the silicon iron main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and that of the silicon manganese main contract is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is currently no basis strategy. For the calendar spread, although the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloy is at a five - year low, it is not recommended to go long. The spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse arbitrage is also high [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.37% and a historical percentile of 43.9% over three years. The monthly price range of silicon manganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.24% and a historical percentile of 9.6% over three years [13]. - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits and hedge against inventory depreciation. The recommended short - selling ratio is 15%, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 for silicon manganese [13]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures to lock in procurement costs. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, with an entry range of 5200 - 5300 for silicon iron and 5300 - 5400 for silicon manganese [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on regulating price competition. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to introduce policies for stabilizing the real estate market and reducing involution [14][15]. - **Negative information**: The EU has tightened steel import restrictions, and Mexico plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese steel and automobiles. Sino - US trade frictions and weak steel fundamentals have dampened market sentiment [16]. - **Weekly data**: Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3 to 11.28, and silicon iron plant inventory increased by 3050 to 69080. Silicon manganese production increased by 4585 to 208810, and silicon manganese plant inventory increased by 20000 to 262500 [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Next Monday, China's Q3 GDP annual rate, one - year loan prime rate, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment will be released. Next Friday, the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced. The evolution of Sino - US trade frictions also needs attention [17]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trends and capital movements**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract 2601 was 5430, up 0.63% week - on - week, and the total open interest increased by 8.6% to 411,000 lots. The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract 01 was 5718, down 0.69% week - on - week, and the total open interest increased by 5.85% to 598,000 lots. The net short position of silicon iron is increasing, while the net short position of silicon manganese is decreasing [17]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and structure**: The term structure of ferroalloy is in contango, but the term structure of some silicon iron contracts is improving. The contango structure of coking coal is bearish for ferroalloy prices in the short term. The basis of ferroalloy is fluctuating narrowly, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five - year low. It is not recommended to go long, and the spread may further weaken [21][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Ferroalloy profit is continuously declining. Silicon iron production remains high, giving enterprises a strong incentive to cut production. Silicon manganese production has been falling for several weeks [40]. - The export profit of silicon iron is declining, and its export volume is expected to decrease [64]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Supply: Although there is an expectation of increased production during the peak season, the continuous decline in production profit is likely to lead to a decrease in ferroalloy production. The production of silicon manganese in the southern region may also decline with the arrival of the flat - water season [68]. - Demand: Seasonally, ferroalloy demand should increase during the peak season, but the decline in the profit of downstream products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, along with the accumulation of five - major steel products' inventory, restrains the demand for ferroalloy. The demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline slightly [68]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked due to approaching forced cancellation months and seasonal patterns. Total inventory is expected to decline slowly [68]. 5.2 Supply - Side Projection - The decline in production profit does not support an increase in ferroalloy production. The production of silicon manganese in the southern region may decrease with the flat - water season. Silicon iron production is expected to decline slightly due to a significant drop in production profit [70]. 5.3 Demand - Side Projection - The demand for ferroalloy is affected by the weak profit of downstream products and the accumulation of five - major steel products' inventory. The high - level iron - water production is difficult to maintain, and the steel - making demand for ferroalloy may decline. The decline in silicon iron export profit will also affect its export volume [74]. 5.4 Inventory - Side Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. However, warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and total inventory will decline slowly [90].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, tin prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation after a pull - back from the high. The Fed officials sent dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts again. The gold price remained high, and market sentiment was still pessimistic. The supply side faced significant pressure due to continuous disruptions in domestic and overseas mines and ongoing maintenance of some domestic smelters. Demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, and the increase in emerging fields was uncertain. Overall, it was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Affected by macro - upward drivers and a large proportion of mine - end disturbances, tin is still regarded as a long - position asset. In the short term, enter the market on dips [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Tin prices oscillated narrowly after a pull - back from the high. Macro factors included dovish Fed signals and strengthened interest - rate cut expectations, with high gold prices and pessimistic market sentiment. On the fundamental side, there were continuous disturbances in mines at home and abroad and maintenance of some domestic smelters, leading to supply - side pressure. Demand in traditional sectors was weak, and the increase in emerging fields was uncertain. Tin is considered a long - position asset, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [2] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Volatility and Forecast**: The latest closing price of Shanghai tin is 280,750 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 265,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 19.31%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 49.6% [18] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai tin's main futures contract at around 288,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (SN2511C290000) when volatility is appropriate. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of Shanghai tin's main futures contract at around 277,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of put options (SN2511P270000) when volatility is appropriate [21] - **Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees**: The tin import profit and loss is - 14,530.35 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 4,721.03 yuan and a weekly decline of 24.52%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no change [21] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US government shutdown has lasted for over half a month. On October 16, the US Senate's tenth vote on the temporary appropriation bill still failed to pass, and there is no sign of the shutdown ending in the short term [22] - **Negative Information**: Alphamin Resources increased its annual tin production forecast to 18,000 - 18,500 tons, with a 26.4% increase in the third - quarter output compared to the previous quarter and a 5.6% increase compared to the same period last year. The Indonesian president transferred six seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise. Cornish Metals plans to produce 49,000 tons of tin, 3,800 tons of copper, and 3,200 tons of zinc annually, with production expected to start in mid - 2028. Nathan Trotter started the construction of a secondary tin smelter in the US with an investment of $65 million [23][24][25] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 2.23% week - on - week. The 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, up 60% week - on - week. The 40% tin concentrate price is 269,000 yuan/ton, down 2.32% week - on - week, and the 60% tin concentrate price is 273,000 yuan/ton, down 2.29% week - on - week. The prices of 60A and 63A solder bars also decreased [24] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's Q3 GDP annual rate and the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced [27] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures Price and Change**: The latest price of the Shanghai tin main contract is 280,750 yuan/ton, down 1.96% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin continuous - one contract is 281,180 yuan/ton, down 1.81% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin continuous - three contract is 281,350 yuan/ton, down 1.81% week - on - week; the LME tin 3M is $35,030/ton, down 0.91% week - on - week; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.87, up 1.94% week - on - week [27] - **Inventory and Change**: The Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 5,652 tons, down 2.7% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin inventory is 5,879 tons, down 8.55% week - on - week; the LME tin registered warehouse receipts are 2,505 tons, up 15.44% week - on - week; the LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts are 230 tons, down 4.17% week - on - week; the LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, up 7.74% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,644 tons, down 1.13% week - on - week [28] - **Domestic Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly this week, closing at 280,700 yuan/ton. Profitable positions were mainly long in net positions. The domestic basis and monthly - spread structure were stable, and the Shanghai tin term structure maintained a C - structure. The LME tin term structure maintained a B - structure, and the forward trading volume was small. The domestic - foreign spread was stable and oscillated narrowly [29][31][35] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Yunnan's tin ore processing fees have been hovering at historical lows, suppressing smelters' profits and production willingness [38] 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - No specific profit - tracking content is summarized, mainly presenting import volume seasonal charts of Chinese tin ore and unforged non - alloy tin [40][41] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Mine - end disturbances and smelter losses have brought significant pressure to the supply side [42] 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - No specific demand - side deduction content is summarized, mainly presenting seasonal charts of China's refined tin production, domestic recycled refined tin monthly production, SMM tin solder enterprise monthly starting rate, and tin ingot monthly apparent consumption [48][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market was extreme, with the main trading point being the docking issue of sanctioned vessels. Although the docking issue may be resolved, it will affect the unloading rhythm and vessel return time. Iran is currently maintaining a high shipping volume, but vessel sanctions have slowed down port inventory accumulation, leading to an increase in the 15 positive spread and basis. The bullish view that sanctions will force early gas restrictions and shutdowns in Iran has not been confirmed. Due to unloading impacts, port inventory accumulation has become smoother, and the October inventory target has been lowered. The fundamental price range for methanol is expected to be between 2,250 and 2,350 yuan/ton [3]. - The near - term trading focus is on Sino - US negotiations. In October, Iran's shipments remained high, but due to Iranian sanctions, some ports prohibited vessel docking, causing the methanol basis to turn positive. The long - term debate centers on how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem for the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601, leading to a reverse spread for the 15 spread, with the process being affected by macro sentiment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The methanol market this week was characterized by extreme fluctuations, mainly due to the docking issue of sanctioned vessels. The problem is likely to be resolved, but it will impact the unloading rhythm and vessel return time. Iran is maintaining a high shipping volume, with about 640,000 tons shipped so far in October. Vessel sanctions have slowed port inventory accumulation, causing the 15 positive spread and basis to rise. The bullish view that sanctions will lead to early gas restrictions and plant shutdowns in Iran has not been verified. Port inventory accumulation has become smoother, and the October inventory target has been lowered. The fundamental price range for methanol is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Next week is a macro - event - filled week, including a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2,282 yuan/ton. For inland external procurement, the 01 base - spread strengthened [13]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: With the continuous acceleration of Iranian shipments (reaching 640,000 tons), the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year. However, due to Iranian sanctions, port docking is prohibited, causing the methanol basis to turn positive and the 15 spread to move towards a positive spread [13]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a short - term range. The short - term operating range for the 2601 contract is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to continue holding the previously sold put options on the 2601 contract [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation No specific written analysis is provided in the text, but there are multiple inventory - related charts, including methanol weekly inventory seasonality in the Northwest, methanol plant inventories in the South and North lines, and China's methanol enterprise weekly pending order volume seasonality [24][26][29]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation No specific written analysis is provided in the text, but there are many port - inventory - related charts, such as China's methanol port weekly inventory seasonality, provincial - level methanol port weekly inventory seasonality, and methanol downstream inventory in the East China region [34][36][46]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years. For polypropylene and plastic, the price range is 6,800 - 7,400 yuan/ton, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [55]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management based on different scenarios, including shorting or going long in methanol futures, buying or selling put and call options [55]. - **Positive Information**: Sanctions have prevented some methanol vessels from docking and unloading, such as Yanghong not accepting sanctioned vessels. Importers' replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. The 450,000 - ton MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II is expected to start feeding as early as the end of November [56][57]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 640,000 tons so far in October [57]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [58]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - In the domestic market, the production areas performed weaker than the consumption areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week due to the disk rally, the lack of external procurement news from northwest olefin plants and the active price - cutting by methanol plants in the production areas to maintain low inventories led to a decline in methanol prices in the production areas. Downstream users' price - pressing purchases also caused the market in the consumption areas to decline [59]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread strengthened, mainly due to sanctions on Iran [61]. 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain The text provides price data for various products in the methanol industry chain, including domestic and international market prices of methanol, downstream product prices, and prices of related raw materials such as coal [5][7]. 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain The text shows the production costs and profit seasonality of different methanol production methods, such as coal - based production in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, natural - gas - based production in the Southwest, and coke - oven - gas - based production [79][83][84]. 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Output Tracking in the Industry Chain The text presents the weekly operating rates and production seasonality of different methanol production methods and downstream products, including coal - single - alcohol, coal - combined - alcohol, coke - oven - gas - based methanol, and MTO units [86][89][94]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking The text includes information on the import volume seasonality of methanol from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, and the import profit seasonality of Iranian methanol [120][121]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking The text provides data on the weekly capacity utilization rate seasonality of foreign methanol production, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and their weekly production [124][126][128]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection The text provides a supply - demand balance sheet projection for methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, inventory, and inventory changes [131]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection This week, in domestic methanol plants, Jinneng Huayu in North China started to increase the load of a furnace after shutting it down on October 9th. In Central China, the market was mainly affected by the resumption of the Henan Hebi plant. In Northwest China, there were both restarts and overhauls of plants, including the restart of the Xilaifeng plant and the load increase of Shaanxi Runzhong, while plants such as Zhongmei Yuanxing, Yulin Kaiyue, Inner Mongolia Donghua, and Ningxia Hening were shut down for maintenance [132]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units: Xingxing returned on September 12th, and Chengzhi increased its load at the beginning of September. - New demand projects: The MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II was planned to be handed over on September 26th, earlier than expected, and has started stockpiling. - Iran maintains a high shipping volume [136].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to export policies, it will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term internal drive of the industry is weak, and both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is weak. The production cost of gas - based enterprises cannot support the price effectively. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new export quotas. Also, focus on the macro - sentiment [3]. - The trading logic for the near - term: Although new delivery warehouses have been added for urea, the cheapest deliverable goods are still in Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of the export expectation for the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread should be in a reverse arbitrage. Due to the expectation of autumn fertilizer for the 01 contract, it still has a premium [6]. - The trading expectation for the long - term: The domestic daily urea production fluctuated slightly between 195,000 - 201,000 tons around the holiday. After the shutdown of factories in regions such as Shanxi, the Northwest, and Inner Mongolia, the daily output dropped to around 195,000 tons, but the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the total inventory of urea enterprises was around 1.4 million tons, significantly increasing compared to before the holiday. Some urea factories had poor pre - sales before the holiday and urgently need to replenish new orders [11][21]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea's fundamental valuation is low, and it will accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter without export policy adjustment. The industry's internal drive is weak, and demand from compound fertilizer and industrial sectors is sluggish, leading to a weak medium - term trend. The cost of gas - based enterprises cannot support prices, and new export quotas need attention. Macro - events such as the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" time - node should be monitored [3]. - Near - term trading: The cheapest deliverable urea is in Henan and Shandong. The 01 contract's 1 - 5 spread should be in reverse arbitrage, and the 01 contract has a premium due to autumn fertilizer expectations [6]. - Long - term trading: Domestic urea daily production dropped to around 195,000 tons after factory shutdowns, and inventory increased after the holiday. Some factories need to replenish new orders [11]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **行情定位**: Urea will fluctuate weakly. The UR2601 contract will operate in the range of 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1,750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [13]. - **基差、月差及对冲套利策略建议**: For the basis strategy, the 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to when the pre - holiday price cuts to receive orders increase. The 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong with peak - season demand expectations. For the spread strategy, the upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton with dynamic fluctuations. It is recommended to short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1st, with the opening on October 15th and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The fourth quarter is the winter - storage period for the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves [17]. - **Negative information**: The daily production of the urea industry has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and even when it dropped to around 182,000 tons in late August and early September, it was difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. The continuous decline in prices has led to a lack of market confidence, and the market was sluggish in September. Without the support of export and macro - sentiment, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has declined [18][19]. 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On October 19th, Vice - Premier He Lifeng of the State Council agreed with the US to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held next week, and it is an important time - node for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic daily urea production dropped to around 195,000 tons after factory shutdowns, and the inventory increased after the holiday. Some factories need to replenish new orders. On the demand side, continuous rainfall in Shandong and Henan has postponed agricultural demand. Many compound fertilizer factories in the region have shut down, and the impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculations has weakened. Currently, the rigid demand is cautious in replenishing goods, and the willingness of middle and downstream enterprises to stock up is poor [21]. - The current main contradiction is the weak domestic demand. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. Both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [22]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The predicted price range for urea is 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [29]. - **Urea hedging strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short urea futures to lock in profits, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Also, buy put options to prevent large price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and aiming to prevent price increases, buy urea futures at present, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton. Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Information on the seasonal production costs and profits of different urea production methods such as fixed - bed, natural - gas - based, and water - coal - slurry gasification is presented through various charts [32][33][35]. 4.2 Upstream Operating Rate Tracking - Information on the seasonal production profits, production costs, daily output, and capacity utilization rates of different urea production methods and in different regions is shown in multiple charts [41][42][43]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The seasonal inventory data of Chinese urea enterprises, ports, and in specific regions like Guangdong and Guangxi are presented in charts [47][48][49]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Information on the seasonal capacity utilization rates, inventory, production profits, and market prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizers and melamine is shown in various charts [52][54][58]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The seasonal production and sales data of urea in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China are presented in charts [75][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent propylene 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The spot market, especially in Shandong, is affected by the start - up of some devices, leading to a loose supply. The decline in the price of propane in the outer market has caused the collapse of PDH costs, and with insufficient terminal demand, propylene/PP prices have followed suit. The propylene trend remains highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread fluctuates around 500 - 550 yuan/ton [2]. - In the near - term, due to the collapse of the cost side and the loose spot market, both the spot and the futures market have weakened. In the long - term, factors such as supply - side production expectations, PP terminal demand falling short of supply growth leading to inventory accumulation, and pressure from increased supply on the cost side, with the weakening of CP/FEI in the long - term, will affect the propylene market [4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the external supply has increased, and the gap between supply and demand in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream product, PP, has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP powder, granules, and propylene is still small, and the ability to absorb high - priced propylene is insufficient. Most other downstream products also have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. - The PDH cost has collapsed. The CP contract price in October has dropped unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15). The outer - market prices have weakened, with the current CP - calculated cost at 5,950 yuan/ton and the FEI - calculated cost at 5,800 yuan/ton [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the PL01 price range at 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to wait and see for now as the valuation is not high and the propane cost for PDH remains weak [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to be volatile. This week, the basis has widened, with both the spot and the futures market weakening, and the futures market being relatively weaker [17]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. The 02 contract has relatively low positions, and the calendar spread fluctuates randomly. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, reverse arbitrage at high prices is still considered [17]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. The spread between PP granules, powder, and propylene is around 340 yuan/ton. After the propylene spot price weakens, the spread has widened slightly. Consider widening the spread when the PP - PL spread is within 500 yuan/ton [18]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range for propylene is 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1068 and a historical volatility percentage of 0.6551 over three years [21]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits. Sell call options on PL2601 to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the spot price rises, the selling price can also be locked. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and one wants to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices. Sell put options on PL2601 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the propylene price drops, the spot purchase price can be locked [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The price difference between PP granules, powder, and propylene has widened from a low level, and the PP - end operating rate has increased. Geopolitical issues may still flare up repeatedly [23][24]. - **Negative Information**: The CP contract price in October has dropped unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15). The propane swap price has continued to fall after the holiday. Sino - US economic and trade issues may continue to fluctuate, causing significant disturbances to the cost side. The spot price has continued to decline, with the price in the Shandong region dropping by 230 yuan/ton compared to last Friday [24]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - From October 20 - 23, the Fourth Plenary Session will be held. On October 20, data such as LPR and third - quarter GDP will be released. On October 24, data such as US CPI and PMI will be released [27]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the PL01 contract has continued its downward trend, with a slight decrease in the position. The net position of the main profitable seats has decreased, and there has been no significant change in the long - short list positions. The net short position of profitable seats has increased slightly, the net short position of foreign capital has decreased slightly, and the net short position of retail investors has decreased slightly. Technically, all cycles are in a downward trend, with the moving averages in a short - position arrangement. The decline on the hourly chart has slowed down slightly [25]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the propylene 01 basis is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan/ton compared to last week. Both the spot and the futures market have declined, with the futures market being relatively weaker. The propylene 01 - 02 calendar spread is - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to last week. The overall trend is conducive to reverse arbitrage and remains volatile [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - Mid - Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries is 547.82 yuan/ton (- 71.31 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries is 225.77 yuan/ton (- 23.42 yuan/ton). The cracking operating rate has slightly decreased with the profit [31]. - **Midstream Profit**: The Asian naphtha cracking profit is - $12/ton (+$27/ton), and the Asian propane cracking profit is $48/ton (+$35/ton). After the overseas propane price drops, the propane cracking profit has increased. The PDH profit based on FEI cost is 372 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton), and the PDH profit based on CP cost is 247 yuan/ton (- 235 yuan/ton), with the PDH profit shrinking from a high level [34]. - **Downstream Profit**: The price difference between PP拉丝, powder, and propylene is 340 yuan/ton (+ 160 yuan/ton and + 210 yuan/ton respectively). After the propylene price weakens, the price difference between PP and propylene has widened from a low level. The PO/SM profit of propylene oxide is 977 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton), the HPPO profit is - 1,070 yuan/ton (+ 46 yuan/ton), and the chlorohydrin - method profit is 274 yuan/ton (- 7.5 yuan/ton). Recently, the profit of the chlorohydrin - method PO has improved, supporting the operating rate. The acrylonitrile profit is - 1,305 yuan/ton (+ 48 yuan/ton), with little overall change. The acrylic acid profit is + 672 yuan/ton (+ 88 yuan/ton), with improved profit. The butanol profit is - 207 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton), currently in a loss state, and the subsequent operating - rate change should be monitored. The octanol profit is - 0.45 yuan/ton (+ 41 yuan/ton), slightly improved compared to last week, and the subsequent operating - rate change of major external - purchasing units should be monitored. The phenol - acetone profit is - 564 yuan/ton (- 85 yuan/ton), with little change and in a volatile state [36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The Sino - Korean propylene price difference has shown little recent fluctuation, and imports are expected to remain at a high level [48]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Shandong Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market have decreased. The supply reduction comes from the maintenance of devices such as Yulong and Jingbo, and the demand reduction mainly comes from the maintenance of the PP granule end. The supply - demand gap is expected to become looser again in late October as the maintenance devices resume operation [50]. 5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection This week, there have been both start - ups and shutdowns. The overall propylene operating rate is 74.44% (- 0.99%), still at a high level. The supply reduction mainly comes from the maintenance of steam cracking at Guangzhou Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong, PDH at Wanda Tianhong and Tianjin Bohua, light - hydrocarbon cracking at Jingbo, and MTO at Qinghai Salt Lake. The production in the Shandong region is expected to partially recover in late October [52]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The demand in the Shandong region has increased this week, mainly due to the复产 of PP devices. For PP granules, Jineng's 3PP has复产, and its 2PP is under maintenance; Yulong's 3PP and 5PP have had short - term shutdowns, and currently, its 4PP is shut down; Dongming Petrochemical is under maintenance. For PP powder, Shufukang's new factory has a special - purpose granule production line, and one line of Dongfang Hongye has restarted. For propylene oxide, Lihuayi and Jinling Chemical are shut down, Binhua has reduced its load, and Wanhua Penglai has increased its load (Shandong Minxiang is in the feeding stage). Luxi Chemical has slightly increased its load. For acrylonitrile, there has been no device change. For acrylic acid, Qilu Kaitai has reduced its load, Wanhua and Shandong Hengxin have increased their loads, and Qixiang Tengda is under maintenance. For butanol and octanol, there have been few device changes. For phenol - acetone, there has been no device change, and Shandong Fuyu is under maintenance [93][94].