Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The August 3rd OPEC+ meeting is highly anticipated by the market, and its decisions will impact the global crude oil market. Recently, OPEC+ has been accelerating production increases, with 8 core member countries' cumulative production increase accounting for 62% of the planned reduction cancellation. The meeting will determine the production increase scale for September, discuss long - term strategic directions, and address issues of non - compliant member countries. Its decisions may intensify oil price fluctuations, intensify market share competition, and have a chain reaction on downstream industries [1]. 3. Summary by Directory OPEC+ Recent Production Increase Situation Analysis - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from long - term production cuts to capacity release. Eight core member countries increased production by 411,000 barrels per day each month from May to July, far exceeding the original plan of 138,000 barrels per day. On July 5th, they decided to increase the production quota by 548,000 barrels per day in August [2]. - Saudi Arabia leads the production increase. The high demand in the Northern Hemisphere in summer provides an opportunity to expand market share, and it also aims to activate idle capacity and enhance market influence. Additionally, it is a way to reconcile internal contradictions caused by some non - compliant member countries. So far, these 8 countries have cumulatively increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day, accounting for 62% of the planned 2.2 million barrels per day reduction cancellation, and are expected to complete the cancellation in September, one year ahead of schedule [2]. 8 - Month Meeting Core Issue Research - **Determination of September Production Increase Scale**: The market generally expects that OPEC+ will focus on the September production increase scale in the August 3rd meeting and is likely to continue the production increase trend. Many predict that Saudi Arabia and its allies may approve an additional 548,000 barrels per day increase in September. However, the final scale is still uncertain as OPEC+ needs to consider global supply - demand, inventory levels, and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Discussion of Long - Term Strategic Direction**: As the first - stage large - scale production increase nears completion, OPEC+ needs to discuss whether to continue increasing production to consolidate market share or adjust the production increase rhythm or even return to production cuts to stabilize oil prices. If the cumulative production increase reaches 2.2 million barrels per day in the August meeting, OPEC+ may stop increasing production, but this depends on members' judgments of the market and interest games [4]. - **Handling Mechanism for Non - compliant Member Countries**: The issue of some member countries violating production quotas may be mentioned again. The meeting may introduce measures such as a stricter production monitoring system, economic sanctions, or adjustment of future production quotas to ensure the effective implementation of the production cut agreement and enhance OPEC+'s market control ability [5]. Potential Impact of Meeting Decisions on the Market - **Intensified Oil Price Fluctuations**: If OPEC+ decides to significantly increase production in September, global oil supply will increase, and the expectation of supply surplus will strengthen, putting downward pressure on oil prices. However, oil price trends are also affected by factors such as the global economic recovery, US monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts. The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices needs to consider the interaction of these factors [6]. - **Intensified Market Share Competition**: OPEC+ is accelerating production increase to compete for market share in the face of the diversified global energy pattern. If the meeting decides to continue increasing production, it will reshape the global crude oil market competition pattern, and other oil - producing countries may adjust their production strategies and market layouts [6]. - **Chain Reaction in Downstream Industries**: If production increase leads to lower oil prices, it will reduce the raw material costs of petrochemical enterprises and the operating costs of the transportation industry, but it will also reduce the fiscal revenue of oil - exporting countries and regions. Long - term low oil prices may inhibit the development of the new energy industry [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 1, 2025, the prices of various monthly contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures showed a slight fluctuation. Except for the relatively stable EC2508 contract entering the delivery month, the prices of other monthly contracts declined slightly. The overall futures price trend was still affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European route and trended slightly downward. The bearish sentiment in the commodity market also had a certain negative impact on the EC. For the future, it is expected that the EC is more likely to return to a volatile state, and some contracts may slightly rebound after reaching short - term lows. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still slightly decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For those with positions in cabin management but with full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at the entry range of 1700 - 1800 [1]. - For those in cost management who expect to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at the entry range of 1300 - 1400 to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance [1]. Market Information 利多解读 - The Israeli side responded to Hamas' counter - proposal on Tuesday evening, but it is expected that Hamas will not accept the terms. The Doha talks have been in a stagnant state since Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recalled the negotiation team earlier this month [2]. 利空解读 - ONE lowered the spot cabin quotes on the European route in mid - August. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different trends for different contracts [3]. EC Price and Spread - On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of different EC contracts had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the EC2508 contract had a closing price of 2126.5, a daily increase of 0.23%, and a weekly decrease of 3.89%. The spreads between different contracts also changed accordingly [5]. Shipping Quotes - On August 14, for the Maersk shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $5 to $1735, and for 40GP it increased by $10 to $2910. For the ONE shipping schedule, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $130 to $2194, and for 40GP it decreased by $200 to $2943 [7]. - The latest values of global freight rate indices showed different changes. For example, the SCFIS European route index was 2316.56, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous value; the SCFI European route was $2090 per TEU, an increase of 0.53% [8]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at major global ports on July 31, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.859 days to 0.880 days compared to July 30, 2025 [13]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On July 31, 2025, the speeds of different types of container ships showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained unchanged at 9 compared to the previous day [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index rebounded in the week from July 28th to July 31st, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.17% (the decline significantly narrowed). The increase in the demand for tanker use in the Red Sea and the decrease in the Aden Gulf region were favorable for the BDTI index. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ crude oil production increases and global economic expectations [2]. - As of July 25th, the crude oil shipment volume showed a pattern of "three decreases and one increase." The shipment volume decreased in the US by 6.26%, Saudi Arabia by 21.02%, and the UAE by 0.48%, while it increased in Russia by 12.6% [2]. - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea increased, with an increase in the number of crude oil tankers and a decrease in the number of refined oil tankers. In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic decreased slightly [7]. - As of July 26th, except for the Suez - type tankers, the port tanker capacity of other tanker types increased [9]. - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, China, India, and the Netherlands all saw a week - on - week decline in crude oil arrivals, and their import demand fell below the level of the same period in 2024, reaching the average of the past four years [30]. 3. Summary by Section BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of July 31st, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 921 points, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.17%. The freight rate increased significantly in that week from a seasonal perspective [2][3]. Tanker Voyage Distance - In the 28th week of 2025 (as of July 18th), except for the Aframax tankers whose voyage distance decreased week - on - week, the voyage distances of VLCC and Suez - type tankers increased. Specifically, the voyage distances of VLCC, Aframax, and Suez - type tankers changed by +3.2%, - 7.33%, and +13.94% week - on - week respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the Aframax tankers' voyage distance was still in a shortened state [5]. Tanker Traffic in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf - From July 26th to July 30th, the average daily tanker traffic in the Red Sea was 771 ships, an increase of 26 ships from the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers increased by 34, and the number of refined oil tankers decreased by 11. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC decreased by 5, the number of Suez - type increased by 5, and the number of Aframax increased by 7 [7]. - In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic reached 113 ships, a decrease of 3 ships from the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers increased by 2, and the number of refined oil tankers decreased by 1. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC remained unchanged, the number of Suez - type increased by 1, and the number of Aframax decreased by 4 [7]. Tanker Capacity - As of July 26th, 2025, 9,421 tankers were dismantled, an increase of 3 week - on - week and 81 year - on - year; the number of effective ships was 18,292, an increase of 8 week - on - week and 443 year - on - year; the number of ship deliveries was 196, a decrease of 6 week - on - week and an increase of 72 year - on - year; the number of ship orders was 1,359, an increase of 3 week - on - week and 170 year - on - year; the number of ships under construction was 220, unchanged week - on - week and an increase of 85 year - on - year [9]. - As of July 26th, except for the Suez - type tankers whose port capacity decreased week - on - week, the port tanker capacity of other tanker types increased. Specifically, the number of VLCCs berthed was 2,416, an increase of 18 week - on - week; the number of Aframax berthed was 3,271, an increase of 74 week - on - week; the number of Suez - type tankers berthed was 2,409, a significant decrease of 358 week - on - week [9]. Crude Oil Shipment Data Tracking - US crude oil shipments decreased week - on - week, with the demand for VLCC use increasing week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for Aframax tankers was the weakest, below the average level of the same period in the past four years [11][15]. - Russian crude oil shipments increased week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for Suez - type tankers was extremely strong [11][19]. - Saudi crude oil exports continued to decline week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for VLCC use was extremely weak [21]. - UAE crude oil shipments decreased. Seasonally, the demand for all three tanker types was higher than the four - year average, and the demand for Aframax tankers was the strongest in that week [26]. - The total crude oil shipments of Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased slightly, mainly due to the week - on - week increase in the shipment volume of Kuwait and Iran [29]. Crude Oil Arrivals - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, the crude oil arrivals in China, India, and the Netherlands all decreased week - on - week. Seasonally, the crude oil import demand of the three countries fell below the level of the same period in 2024, reaching the average of the past four years [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is strongly running under supply-side disturbances. Although demand shows no improvement, frequent supply-side accidents have strengthened the near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory, it remains easy to rise and hard to fall. Before the macro narrative is realized, it is expected to stay strong in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - Ethylene glycol price range is predicted to be 4200 - 4700, with a current volatility of 9.09% and a historical percentile of 1.4% over 3 years [1] - PX price range is predicted to be 6500 - 7400, with a current volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7% over 3 years [1] - PTA price range is predicted to be 4400 - 5300, with a current volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6% over 3 years [1] - Bottle chip price range is predicted to be 5800 - 6500, with a current volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% over 3 years [1] Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, for long spot exposure, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a 50% hedging ratio in the entry range of 5 - 15 [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the entry range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Sell put options (EG2509P4300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops, with a 75% hedging ratio in the entry range of 15 - 30 [1] Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Due to typhoons and other weather conditions, a large number of arrivals have been delayed this week, and the inventory accumulation at the port next Monday is expected to be less than expected [5] - The restart of Satellite Petrochemical's first line, originally scheduled for mid - August, has been postponed, and the production forecast for August - September has been lowered [5] Bearish Factors - After the release of the Politburo meeting content on July 30th, the "anti-involution" sentiment has initially cooled, and the valuation is returning to fundamentals [5] - The previously temporarily shut - down devices in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and the import forecast for September has been revised upwards [5] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - Before May 30, 2005, there were various polyester raw material production devices in different regions and enterprises, including MEG, PX, and PTA, with details such as capacity, production time, and operation status provided [6] Polyester Daily Data Price and Spread - Data on the prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, and different polyester contracts on August 1, 2025, July 31, 2025, and July 25, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are provided. Also, information on various spreads like TA main basis, EG main basis, and month - to - month spreads is given [7] Warehouse Receipts - PTA warehouse receipts are 30740, MEG warehouse receipts are 2168, and PX warehouse receipts are 0 [8] Processing Fees and Profits - Data on processing fees such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, and profits of products like POY, DTY, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are provided [8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - In the short term, there are still fluctuations in the price spreads among COMEX copper, LME copper, and SHFE copper, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine the reasonable range of the spreads. The extremely high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be significantly affected. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend still depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes. Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [3] Group 3: Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,040 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Group 4: Copper Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2509C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, over - increase in the anti - involution event, and extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX due to US copper tariff policy adjustments [5][7] Group 6: Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,040 yuan/ton with no daily change; SHFE copper continuous - one is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan (-1.13%); SHFE copper continuous - three is 78,010 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME 3M copper is 9,803 US dollars/ton, up 40.5 US dollars (0.41%); the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.15, up 0.01 (0.12%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,565 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan (-0.91%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,985 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan (-0.15%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 78,890 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 79,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.19%) [8] Group 7: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipt is 18,083 tons, up 251 tons (1.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipt is 3,313 tons, down 1,354 tons (-29.01%) [14] Inventory Data - The total LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons (0.18%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 253,431 tons, up 9,650 tons (3.96%) [16][18] Group 8: Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 161.95 yuan/ton, up 151.48 yuan (-48.33%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.75 US dollars/ton with no daily change [19]

集装箱运输市场日报 —— MSC终下调8月报价，商品情绪影响 2025/7/31 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1700~1800 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1300~1400 | source： 南华期货 EC基差日度变化 | 2025-08-01 | 基差（点） | 日涨跌（点） | 周涨跌（点） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 194.96 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is potentially bullish, but short - term fluctuations in London gold have intensified. London gold has fallen below the 3300 mark, with key support at 3250 and resistance levels at 3300, 3350, 3370, and 3400. London silver has broken below the 37 area support, showing short - term weakness, and the support has shifted down to 36. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market continued its weakness. After the better - than - expected US small non - farm payrolls and Q2 GDP on Wednesday and Powell's hawkish speech, the better - than - expected US PCE and lower - than - expected weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday further cooled the September interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rose above 100, which was negative for precious metals. Additionally, the US "exemption" of refined copper tariffs caused a sharp drop in US copper prices, dragging down silver prices. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3342.3 per ounce, down 0.31%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, down 2.51%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 770.28 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9008 yuan per kilogram, down 2.21% [2]. - Trump said that the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods imported into the US starting from August 1st. The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a four - month high [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 38.2%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 32.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 7.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.86 tons to 954.51 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 87.58 tons to 15062.32 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.06 tons to 1208 tons, and the SGX silver inventory in the week ending July 25th increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week is data - intensive. On Friday, focus on the US July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30 and the ISM manufacturing PMI at 22:00 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold main - continuous, SGX gold TD, CME gold main, SHFE silver main - continuous, SGX silver TD, CME silver main, SHFE - TD gold, SHFE - TD silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Data presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold inventory, CME gold inventory, SHFE gold position, SPDR gold position, SHFE silver inventory, CME silver inventory, SGX silver inventory, SHFE silver position, and SLV silver position [15]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight oil prices declined, ending a three - day rally and correcting some risk premiums. Trump's extreme pressure may aim to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, with a weak intention to block Russian oil and limited impact on the crude oil market. The short - term impact of geopolitical risk events on the crude oil market is limited and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals. This week, focus on the August 3rd OPEC+ meeting and the subsequent reaction of the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面动态 - As of the close, the September - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 74 cents, closing at $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The September - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price fell 71 cents, closing at $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The night - session SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71%, at 528 yuan per barrel [3]. 3.2.市场动态 - The EIA crude oil inventory increase in the US for the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, and the EIA gasoline inventory decline was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. In May, US oil production reached a record 13.49 million barrels per day, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products in May both rose to the highest level since January [5]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Netanyahu to discuss issues such as a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. On July 31, the US Middle East envoy Witkoff visited Israel and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu. They will mainly discuss the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Witkoff also plans to go to Gaza [5]. - Sources said that in the past week, Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats. It is necessary to focus on the shipping dynamics of Russian crude oil, as well as the changes in its in - transit crude oil and floating storage inventory. The pressure exerted by the US on Russia has begun to have an impact, but the extent and duration of this impact need further observation. Market concerns will support the crude oil market in the short term [5]. - The US core PCE inflation annual rate unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8% in June, while consumer spending almost stagnated. After the release of the June PCE indicators last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September further decreased, from nearly 70% to below 40%. If Trump wants to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, he must effectively control energy prices, especially oil prices [5]. 3.3.全球原油盘面价格及价差变动 - Provided price and spread data of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on July 31, 30, and 24, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes and differences between different contracts [6].

金融期货早评 宏观：制造业 PMI 边际回落 【市场资讯】1）国常会：通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，实施个人消费贷 款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策。2）国家互联网信息办公室就 H20 算力芯片 漏洞后门安全风险约谈英伟达公司。3）对等关税命运难测：美上诉法院关键审判开启庭辩， 法官质疑特朗普授权。4）特朗普称美墨关税协议将延长 90 天，墨西哥比索刷新日高、股 指转涨。关税僵局后，特朗普痛斥印度是"死亡经济体"。5）美联储最爱通胀指标意外回升， 美国 6 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比 2.8%，创 4 个月新高。6）日本央行维持利率不变，上调 今明两年通胀预期。植田和男：加息取决于"通胀达标"可能性，当下日元汇率并未大幅偏 离预期；日元一度跌破 150。7）世界黄金协会：央行 Q2 购金量创三年最低，ETF 接棒支 撑黄金需求。8）中国 7 月官方制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3，新订单指数回落至 49.4，非制造 业保持扩张。 【核心逻辑】7 月制造业 PMI 边际回落，明显弱于往年季节性，特别是新订单指数。制造 业经济动能也出现了边际回落，当前经济整体出现下行的压力。但不必过于悲观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the stock index dropped with heavy trading volume, and the decline of the large - cap stock index was greater. The main reasons for the market decline were the hawkish remarks of Powell at the Fed's July meeting, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, increasing external pressure, and the release of the July manufacturing PMI by the National Bureau of Statistics, which was lower than the previous month and lower than expected. Under the double negative impacts at home and abroad, the stock index declined overall. From the perspective of futures indicators, the volume - weighted average basis of all contracts except IH decreased slightly. The overall sentiment turned pessimistic, and the correction was expected to continue. If the index continued to fall, it was recommended that long - position holders take profit and exit [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index declined collectively on this day. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.82%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 91.756 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM dropped with heavy trading volume, while the other varieties dropped with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected. He also mentioned that the current interest rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation, and it was still too early to judge the impact of tariffs on inflation. - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - If the decline continued, long - position holders could take profit and exit [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.77 | -1.44 | -1.38 | -0.88 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.6196 | 7.5925 | 11.9559 | 26.7774 | | Trading volume month - on - month (10,000 lots) | 1.8165 | 0.4976 | 1.4305 | 3.6495 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0987 | 9.9966 | 22.7163 | 34.8264 | | Open interest month - on - month (10,000 lots) | -0.3716 | -0.3315 | -0.276 | 0.1767 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 19360.35 | | Trading volume month - on - month (100 million yuan) | 917.56 | [6]