今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据新华社消息，来自伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯 社27日报道，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃日前表示，伊朗在任何 情况下都不会放弃铀浓缩权利；据以色列媒体报道，以色列总 理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统特朗普就如何应对伊朗进行了激烈的 电话交谈；今天晚间将召开欧佩克+会议。评：前期OPEC+增产 落实情况小于预期，原油短期压力不大。中期看，当前进入 OPEC+7月政策窗口期，关注政策情况。短期短线参与。 【短评-黄金】美联储威廉姆斯，4月份关税事件显示市场 功能失调，保持通胀预期稳固至关重要。美国储备水平仍然明 显充裕，当遭受巨大冲击时，能通过储备金获得缓冲是非常好 的。评：市场预期美国6月份90%以上不会降息，美国政府宣称 美欧关税谈判取得重大进展，美元指数反弹，黄金承压。黄金 中期依然高位震荡对待，关注美国关税政策及地缘情况。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月28日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F30 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-橡胶】供应方面：泰国原料胶水价格62.75泰铢/公 斤，杯胶价格52.8泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格13100元/ 吨，制浓乳胶价格14100元/吨；ANRPC最新发布的2025年4月报 告预测，4月全球天胶产量料降1.4%至76.7万吨，较上月下降 3.9%；泰国前4个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口157.3万吨，同 比增13.5%；合计出口中国100.5万吨，同比增38%。评：橡胶阶 段性原料抗跌，原因是泰国延迟开割，近期东南亚雨水较多， 也影响了开割进度，我国上周去库。预期弱，下游消费表现为 轮胎开工率虽然环比上升，个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小 幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，周内企业出货表现 未见明显好转，全、半钢胎库存延续增势。震荡偏弱思路。 【短评-白银】明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，由于 贸易政策、移民政策及财政政策等多方面的不确定性，宽松政 策暂停期可能更长，美联储需等待形势更明朗后才能做出决 策。评：美联储官员认为未来降息依然充满不确定性。美元指 数走低，利多黄金，避险情绪再度升温，基本面利空白银。白 银中期宽幅震荡思路为宜。关注白银与黄金是否走 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The tariff policies of Trump have introduced uncertainties, leading to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which is favorable for precious metals in the short - term, while the medium - term trend requires further observation of the trade war's progress [1]. - For various commodities, their short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity utilization, and market sentiment, with most showing a tendency of short - term weakening or oscillating [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Trump's tariff threats have increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and Powell's speech has added more possibilities to future monetary policies. Precious metals are bullish in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the trade war [1]. - **Silver**: The Fed's monetary policy remains in a wait - and - see mode. With the decline of US stocks and the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish for silver. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [8]. Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda plant is operating at a high level, with stable expected operation this week and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The downstream alumina has low profits, and the replenishment demand is expected to slow down. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: The coal price is expected to be weak, and the domestic methanol operation is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with a narrow adjustment in supply and general downstream demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Metals - **Rebar**: The production of five major steel products has increased slightly, the apparent consumption has decreased, and the supply - demand pressure has increased slightly. The steel market may have weak supply and demand in the short - term, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: The coking profit is continuously recovering, and the supply is increasing. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the coke consumption remains high. The coke price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to the approaching off - season of steel demand and the expected reduction of steel mill profits [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore supply increase is not obvious, and the supply - demand is balanced. With the recent macro - level positive news, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's export tariff increase and other news have affected the market sentiment. The domestic spot basis is stable, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Soybeans**: The price drivers of US soybeans are uncertain. The domestic soybean planting is nearly half - completed, and the old - bean inventory is tight. It is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on soybean No. 1 [9]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price first fell and then rose over the weekend. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is adjusting weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tariffs, the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, and other factors have brought uncertainties to the market. The short - term pressure is not large, and the mid - term trend depends on the implementation of OPEC+ policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber raw materials are resistant to price drops in the short - term due to delayed tapping in Thailand and heavy rain in Southeast Asia. However, the overall expectation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Others - **PTA**: The restart of PX and PTA maintenance devices will lead to a slight increase in domestic supply. The polyester inventory is still high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm needs further observation. It is not recommended to chase the high price in the long - term [13]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market issuance is basically completed, and the supply shock has eased. The economic downward pressure is still large, and the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium - term [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Trump tax - cut bill has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals, but the market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and precious metals may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. - The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range. With the decline in steel mill profits, the willingness to increase production is not strong, and the prices of coking coal and coke are weak, while iron ore prices are firm [2]. - The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. - The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. - The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [8]. - The silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. - The bond market is recommended to adopt a medium - term oscillation and slightly bullish strategy [8]. - The short - term pressure on the crude oil market is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [9]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Trump tax - cut bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next decade, raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion. It has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals. The market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and gold may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. Steel (including rebar, coking coal, iron ore) Rebar - As of the week of May 22, rebar production was 231.48 million tons, an increase of 4.95 million tons (2.19%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 187.76 million tons, an increase of 2.77 million tons (1.5%); social inventory was 416.46 million tons, a decrease of 18.42 million tons (4.24%); apparent demand was 247.13 million tons, a decrease of 13.16 million tons (5.06%). The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [2]. Coking Coal - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.36%, an increase of 0.27% from the previous period; the daily average output was 52.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 316.48 million tons, an increase of 10.97 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.74 million tons, an increase of 11.48 million tons. The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2675.03 million tons, a decrease of 39.64 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 117.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 22.84, a decrease of 0.20. The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the methanol operating rate was 87.04%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%; the total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.04%, a weekly increase of 1.45%; the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.04 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.65 million tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 33.6 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.02 million tons; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 3.84 million tons. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide was 1422.5 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices recently; the weekly output of soda ash was 66.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the operating rate of float glass was 75.24%, a weekly decrease of 0.22%; the average price of float glass nationwide was 1240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 6776.9 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous period. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the chlorine - alkali profit was 358 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.1%, an increase of 1.5%; a 720,000 - ton/year chlorine - alkali plant of Shanghai Chlor - Alkali was under maintenance for about one month; the weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 40.09 million tons, a decrease of 3.61%; the weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 75%, a decrease of 1%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.3%, a decrease of 0.35%. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [7][8]. Silver - Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed will not buy bonds in primary auctions. If the impact of tariffs stabilizes, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. The market has renewed expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and the silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net investment of 375 billion yuan after deducting the 125 - billion - yuan maturity this month, which is the third consecutive month of incremental roll - over. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [8]. Crude Oil - There is still uncertainty in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and possible geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, the pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases. Short - term short - term participation is recommended [9]. Rubber - Thai rubber raw material prices are falling, while Hainan raw material prices are improving. The global light - vehicle sales in April 2025 maintained an upward trend. The rubber market has strong raw materials but weak finished products. The tire operating rate has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is 834 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 259 US dollars/ton; the price of PTA in East China is 4870 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4705 yuan/ton; the social inventory of PTA is 373.16 million tons, a decrease of 14.97 million tons from the previous statistical period; the PTA capacity utilization rate is adjusted to 77.22%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester is around 90.4%. The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term, crude oil has little pressure; long - term, focus on the progress of US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increase. Short - term trading is recommended [1] - Gold is bullish in the short - term and may oscillate at high levels in the medium - term. Pay attention to the upcoming US Treasury bond redemption issues [1] - In the medium - and long - term, as new PTA production capacity is released, the pressure of over - capacity becomes apparent, and the upward price space may be limited [3] - Rubber prices are difficult to fall significantly and tend to oscillate. Short - term trading is recommended [4] - The bond market has certain support, and a medium - term slightly bullish and oscillating view is appropriate [5] - Silver is bearish due to the US economic downturn, but it follows the fluctuation of gold. A medium - term wide - range and slightly bullish oscillating view is appropriate [5] - The steel market is intertwined with long and short factors, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly and narrowly [6] - Iron ore prices maintain an oscillating trend under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to the change of hot metal [8] - The coking coal market is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [8] - The pig price is expected to continue the weak trend, with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [9] - Palm oil prices oscillate in the short - term. High - selling and low - buying operations are maintained [10] - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [11] - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [13] - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short - position on rebounds [13] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased. The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held on May 23. Uranium enrichment in Iran will continue regardless of the agreement [1] Gold - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. The auction of 20 - year US Treasury bonds was weaker than expected, and the dollar index has fallen, causing gold to rise [1] PTA - PX CFR is at $826/ton, PX - N is $257/ton. The average polyester sales rate is 29.6%. There is an expectation of restarting previous PTA maintenance devices, and the supply is slightly increasing [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are given. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased. Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak [4] Treasury Bonds - Eight departments have jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and major banks have lowered deposit interest rates, which support the bond market [5] Silver - Target's Q1 sales declined, and it expects low - single - digit sales decline in fiscal year 2025. The US economic downturn and the Treasury bond issue increase market pessimism [5] Rebar - On May 21, domestic steel market oscillated. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is moderately positive, but high temperature and heavy rain affect steel sales [6] Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the total inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 696,000 tons. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level, while the supply remains high [8] Coking Coal - The opening rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 0.34%. Coal mine inventories have increased, and downstream steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price cuts [8] Pig - As of May 21, the national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The market transaction was average, and the terminal's ability to accept high prices was limited [9] Palm Oil - From May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.72%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax, and the domestic spot basis is stable [10] Methanol - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is stable. The opening rate decreased by 3.7%. Port inventory increased by 0.65 tons, and enterprise orders to be delivered decreased by 3.84 tons [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable. The opening rate is 80.06%. Factory inventory increased by 0.63%. The opening rate of float glass decreased by 0.22%, and its inventory increased by 0.77% [11][13] Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The opening rate decreased by 1.3%. Enterprise inventory increased by 7.08%. The opening rate of downstream industries decreased [13]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克警告称，通胀正 在朝着令人不安的方向发展。他重申预计今年将降息一次，穆 迪下调美国评级可能对寻求借款的美国公司和家庭产生负面影 响。评：美联储面临各种问题，但是短期依然不改变其观点。 上周鲍威尔对美联储未来政策框架提出新的假设，美联储降息 问题将变得更加扑朔迷离。黄金将陷入高位震荡，关注黄金和 白银是否走分化行情。 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报837美元/吨，PX-N272美元/吨； 华东PTA报5930元/吨，PTA现金流成本为4691元/吨。上周中海 油惠州装置重启推迟，中金以及浙石化计划外降负，亚洲及国 内PX负荷环比下降。其中亚洲PX负荷下降3.1%至67.5% ，国内 PX负荷下降4.5%至74.1%。评：PX供需预期偏紧，驱动偏强， PXN大幅修复，目前PXN扩大至274美元/吨附近。短期PTA在成本 支撑、检修去库等因素推动下，或延续偏强震荡态势。但需关 注宏观情绪反复及终端需求变化的潜在风险。中长期来看，随 着新产能释放，产能过剩压力渐显，价格上行空间或受限。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月20日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The cost - side coal price of methanol is expected to be weak, with high - level domestic methanol operations expected. The port methanol inventory may increase. The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - The Fed's potential staff cuts and new policy assumptions make the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain. Gold will be in high - level oscillations [1]. - For coking coal, supply remains high while demand is expected to be weak, and the upstream coal mines still face inventory - accumulation pressure. The short - term futures performance is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The tariff reduction on iron ore brings unexpected positive news, and the ore price oscillates upward. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar strengthen this week. The export recovery expectation rises after China - US tariff negotiations. The rebar price is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation [4]. - For live pigs, the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The short - term price is mainly in a weak adjustment [4]. - The domestic palm oil spot basis is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term price oscillates [5]. - The domestic soda ash market operates stably, and the soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The increase in money - market interest rates is negative for the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bearishly in the medium term [7]. - The fundamentals are negative for silver, and it is expected to have a wide - range and slightly bearish oscillation in the medium term [8]. - The short - term pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [8]. - Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak. A cautious short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended [9]. - Although the PTA market is boosted by the China - US talks, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and short - term participation is recommended [9]. Summaries by Product Methanol - Market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Methanol operating rate is 88.47%, down 3.7% week - on - week. Downstream total capacity utilization is 71.01%, down 0.48% week - on - week. Port inventory is 48.39 tons, down 7.8 tons week - on - week. Production enterprise inventory is 33.58 tons, up 3.19 tons week - on - week. Order backlog is 27.36 tons, up 3.58 tons week - on - week [1]. Gold - The Fed plans to cut staff by 10% in the next few years, and Powell proposed new assumptions about the Fed's future policy framework, making the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain [1]. Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.70%, up 0.26%. Daily coke output is 67.15, up 0.23. Coke inventory is 94.31, down 0.13. Coking coal inventory is 884.93, down 31.69. Coking coal available days are 9.9 days, down 0.39 days [3]. Iron Ore - National 45 - port imported iron ore inventory is 14166.09 tons, down 72.62 tons week - on - week. Daily port clearance volume is 323.89 tons, up 8.68 tons. Number of ships at port is 83, up 4 [3]. Rebar - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Daily hot - metal output is 244.77 tons, down 0.87 tons [4]. Live Pigs - As of May 16, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg, unchanged from last week. Weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.9%, down 0.62%. Profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is 56.69 yuan/head, up 24.99 yuan/head. Self - breeding and self - fattening profit is 122.23 yuan/head, up 8.73 yuan/head. Piglet price is 511.9 yuan/head, up 6.2 yuan/head [4]. Palm Oil - Weekly average trading volume is 626 tons, compared with 2071.5 tons in the previous week [5]. Soda Ash - National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1422.5 yuan/ton. Soda ash operating rate is 80.06%. Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 171.2 tons, up 0.63% week - on - week. Float - glass operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.22% week - on - week [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Money - market interest rates mostly rise. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repo has an increase: 1 - day term up 21.93 BP to 1.6313%, 7 - day term up 11.29 BP to 1.6374%, 14 - day term up 6.68 BP to 1.6363%, 1 - month term up 8.2 BP to 1.65% [7]. Silver - The US Treasury Secretary responded to Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, and the market's expectation of US economic growth weakens [8]. Crude Oil - As of May 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 473, down 1 from the previous week and 24 from the same period last year [8]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices continue to rise slightly. Hainan's rubber tapping is affected by rainfall. Tire operating rate rises month - on - month but drops significantly year - on - year [9]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at 854 dollars/ton, PX - N is 202 dollars/ton. East China PTA is reported at 5030 yuan/ton. PTA average operating rate is 77.07%, down 1.41% from last week. Polyester average load is 74.63%, down 17.37% from last week. Weaving factory load is 72.2%, unchanged from last week [9].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】2025年5月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材 库存量1606万吨，环比上一旬增加77万吨，增长5.0%；比年初 增加369万吨，增长29.8%；比上月同旬增加2万吨，增长0.1%； 比去年同旬减少22万吨，下降1.4%，比前年同旬减少155万吨， 下降8.8%。评：主力期价偏强震荡，量缩仓增。现阶段，得益 于市场情绪回暖，贴水修复逻辑支撑下矿价领涨产业链，短期 维持偏强运行，但鉴于需求趋于触顶，而供应维持高位，基本 面并未好转，上行驱动不强，高位谨慎看涨，谨防逻辑切换至 现实端。 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-黄金 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】5月14日，山东港口进口铁矿价格较上一 工作日价格偏强运行，累计上涨10-15。目前PB粉主流在778- 780；超特粉主流在645附近；PB块主流在915附近。评：主力期 价持续上行，量仓扩大。现阶段，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水 修复逻辑支撑下矿价强势上涨，短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿 石需求趋于触顶，且供应维持高位，基本面仍易转弱，上行驱 动不强，高位谨慎看涨，谨防逻辑切换至现实端。 【短评-原油】欧佩克月报显示，4月份，OPEC原油总产量 下降6.2万桶/日，至2671万桶/日，而"欧佩克+"国家总产量 下降10.6万桶/日，至4092万桶/日。哈萨克斯坦4月份石油产量 下降4.1万桶/日，至182万桶/日；欧佩克表示，2025年，欧佩 克+以外国家的供应量将增加约80万桶/日，低于上月预测的90 万桶/日；OPEC预计2025年石油需求将增加130万桶/日，2026年 增加128万桶/日，这一预测高于国际能源署估计的72.6万桶/ 日。评：欧佩克同意增加供应的八个国家上个月总共只增加了 2.5万桶/日，远低于计划的13.8万桶/日，该组织对全球贸易形 势的发展持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the daily data of various futures and spot products, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spreads, and other related indicators, providing a comprehensive view of the market conditions on May 14, 2025. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel and Related Products - **Futures Prices**: All steel - related futures showed price increases, with iron ore having the highest increase rate (2.43% for iron ore main contract 2509) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products also rose, except for coke and coking coal which remained unchanged [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of most products decreased, indicating the narrowing gap between futures and spot prices [6]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Some spreads and ratios changed, such as the narrowing of the 05 - 10 spreads for most products and the decrease in the steel mill's profit on the disk [7]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Futures Prices**: All energy and chemical futures prices increased, with methanol having the highest increase rate (3.68% for methanol main contract 2509) [11][16]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products rose, except for rubber which slightly decreased [12]. - **Basis**: The basis of different products showed different trends, with PTA's basis increasing significantly [12]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between main and far - month contracts of some products changed, and the PXN ratio increased [13]. Financial Futures - **Futures Prices**: Stock index futures prices increased, while bond futures prices decreased [21]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures and precious metals futures increased, except for silver which had a large increase in basis from a negative value [22]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between different - term bond futures and the ratio of gold to silver index changed [23]. Agricultural Products - **Futures Prices**: Most agricultural product futures prices increased, with palm oil having the highest increase rate (2.17% for palm oil main contract) [26]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of different products had different trends [28]. - **Basis**: The basis of most products decreased, except for eggs which increased [28]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The ratios such as pig - grain ratio and oil - meal ratio changed slightly [29]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Basis**: The basis of non - ferrous metals showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing slightly [31]. - **Ratios**: The ratios between different non - ferrous metals changed slightly [32].