今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据法新社报道，美国及伊朗双方6月11日均 就美伊核谈判作出最新表态。美国总统特朗普在当日播出的采 访中表示，他对与伊朗达成核协议"信心减弱"。与此同时， 伊朗6月11日则表示，若谈判失败，美伊之间爆发冲突，伊朗将 以美国在中东地区的军事基地作为目标；美国能源信息署数据 显示；美国商业原油库存量4.32415亿桶，比前一周下降364.4 万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.29804亿桶，比前一周增长150.4万 桶；美国原油日均产量1342.8万桶，比前周日均产量增加2万 桶。评：美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级推动隔夜原油大涨。 整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增速下降对短期油 价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产量落实情况。短期低位短多思路。 【短评-黄金】美国和伊拉克消息人士周三表示，美国正准 备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各军事基地的 军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。评：地缘风险增加， 原油上涨，避险情绪助推黄金上涨，但是美联储降息预期增 加，降息预期利多白银大于利多黄金，资金关注点转为白银。 黄金、白银或走分化行情，黄金中期高位震荡略偏多思路对 待。关注关 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not available Core Views - The global economic slowdown and supply - demand imbalances are putting pressure on various commodity markets, with different commodities showing different trends based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and external factors such as trade negotiations and policy changes [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - The World Bank cut the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.3%, 0.4% lower than the previous prediction, suppressing oil price increases. EIA raised the 2025 crude market surplus expectation. Overall, supply surplus is pressuring the crude market. Consider short - selling when prices are relatively high. Monitor the progress of US - Iran, Russia - Ukraine, and China - US negotiations [2] 焦炭 - On June 10, the coke market price was weak. After the price cut, coke producers' profits are near the break - even point, and there is still room for price decline. Steel mills may initiate a fourth round of price cuts. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [3] Treasury Bonds - On June 11, yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds rose slightly at the opening. The bond market may face downward pressure at the opening. With economic downward pressure and the need for counter - cyclical adjustment, the bond market has some support. Adopt a mid - term wide - range oscillatory and slightly bullish approach [5] Rebar - On June 10, domestic steel market prices continued to decline. Steel demand in the off - season remains weak, and both supply and demand in the steel market are weak. Steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [5] Silver - The progress of China - US trade consultations affects market pricing of US inflation and future interest - rate cut expectations. If the negotiations go well, silver's upward momentum may strengthen. Wait for pull - backs to go long [6] Iron Ore - From June 2nd to 8th, global iron ore shipments increased. The iron ore market is weakly stable. With weak demand from steel mills in the off - season and increasing supply, ore prices are under pressure. However, the deep discount of futures prices provides some support. Ore prices are expected to oscillate at low levels [7] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection volume has increased. The natural rubber market has rebounded with commodities due to macro factors. Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate [8] Gold - As trade negotiations progress, risk - aversion sentiment has weakened. Market focus has shifted to the US economy and future interest - rate cut expectations. Gold and silver may show a divergent trend. Adopt a mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach for gold [10] PTA - PTA supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Polyester's operating load may decline in June. PTA's supply - demand outlook is weakening. PX supply is increasing, but PXN is expected to remain strong. Adopt a high - level short - selling strategy for PTA [10] Live Pigs - Pig prices are rising steadily in some northern regions. Some breeding enterprises are reducing supply to support prices, and second - fattening enthusiasm has increased slightly. Suggest 09 - 01 contract reverse spreads or short - term long positions in the 01 contract. Farmers can sell hedging according to their sales schedules [11] Palm Oil - Malaysia's MPOB report is neutral. Domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. Monitor international biodiesel policies, high - frequency supply - demand data, and domestic inventory changes [11] Soybeans - Brazil's soybean production and related data forecasts remain unchanged. Domestic soybeans are quiet, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward. Hold long positions [12] Methanol - The methanol market in the interior is strong, and the port market's basis is strengthening. With stable coal prices, high domestic methanol operating rates, and increasing downstream demand, the port may continue to accumulate inventory. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is tepid. The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on a short - term basis [14] PVC - PVC supply remains high, and profits are poor. Cost support is strengthening, and demand is stable. The domestic PVC market price is expected to oscillate in a small range. It is recommended to wait and see [15]

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices adjusted within a narrow range, with the average national rebar price rising by 1 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, there was some restocking sentiment in the market. However, due to the decline in coking coal and coke, which dragged down finished products, market quotes adjusted weakly. Mid-week, raw materials stabilized and rebounded under the influence of stricter safety inspections. With few fundamental contradictions in building materials, prices fluctuated and stabilized [2][4]. - Considering the unchanged pattern of weak supply and demand in the steel market during the off-season, the rebound height of steel prices may be limited. Although the price rebounded from a low this week, the weekly line failed to effectively return above the 3000 mark, and the counterattack strength of long - position funds was insufficient, failing to reverse the downward trend for the time being [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices adjusted within a narrow range this week, and the average national rebar price rose by 1 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, restocking sentiment emerged, but the decline in coking coal and coke dragged down finished products, leading to a weak adjustment in market quotes. Mid - week, raw materials stabilized and rebounded due to stricter safety inspections, and prices fluctuated and stabilized with few fundamental contradictions in building materials [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 6, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [6]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce organized the 2025 new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas [6]. - Recently, Zhang Yuzhuo, the director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, conducted intensive research on enterprises in industries such as energy, steel, metal minerals, and energy conservation and environmental protection [6]. - US President Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time. The steel and aluminum tariffs on imports from the UK will remain at 25% [6]. - From May 26 to June 1, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.094 million tons [6]. - In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 23 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 4.9% decrease in daily output week - on - week); 21.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.913 million tons (a 3.5% decrease in daily output week - on - week); and 23.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.177 million tons (a 2.5% increase in daily output week - on - week) [6]. - In late May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 million tons (6.4% decrease) from the previous ten - day period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 106,100 tons, higher than last week's 101,700 tons. Due to the upcoming heavy rainfall in the South and the college entrance examination, downstream construction plans slowed down, and procurement enthusiasm was poor [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The recent steel price has shown a phased rebound under the influence of the significant fluctuations in coking coal futures. Considering the unchanged pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season steel market, the rebound height of steel prices may be limited. The reference operating range is 2860 - 3020 [27]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not improved significantly, and the upside of the futures market is limited [1]. - Gold may experience a short - term correction, with a mid - term high - level oscillation pattern, and the divergence between gold and silver may occur [1]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 2250 level [3]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 1190 level [4]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term under the current tight - balance supply - demand situation [5]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs is supply - strong and demand - weak, and 09 - 01 contract reverse spread and hedging sales are recommended [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [7]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate widely with a slightly bullish trend in the medium term [7]. - Silver may face short - term correction pressure and then oscillate with a slightly bullish trend [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4750 level for the 09 contract [8]. - Crude oil prices are supported in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term [10]. - PTA supply - demand is turning weaker, and it is recommended to wait and see for the right time when crude oil weakens [11]. 3. Summaries by Product Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.36% (- 0.30%), coke daily output is 66.52 (- 0.27), coke inventory is 127.01 (+ 15.63), coking coal inventory is 818.92 (- 27.41), and coking coal available days are 9.3 (- 0.27 days) [1]. - Coking enterprises are in a state of small profit or slight loss, and the market has started the third round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Fed official's remarks reduce the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the US dollar index rebounds, and gold experiences a short - term correction [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2315 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), port inventory is 58.1 tons (+ 5.8 tons), production enterprise inventory is 37.05 tons (+ 1.55 tons), and orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons (+ 1.23 tons) [3]. - Methanol operating rate is 88.14% (+ 0.88%), and downstream capacity utilization is 72.96% (+ 1.83%) [3]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1375 yuan/ton (+ 3 yuan/ton), weekly output is 70.41 tons (+ 2.77%), and manufacturer inventory is 162.7 tons (+ 0.17%) [4]. - Float glass operating rate is 75.68% (- 0.34%), average price is 1206 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton), and inventory is 6975.4 million heavy - boxes (+ 3.09%) [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14400.31 tons (- 69.27 tons), and daily port clearance volume is 329.06 tons (- 9.72 tons) [5]. - Overseas supply growth is lower than expected, and some mines may increase shipments at the end of the fiscal or quarterly period [5]. Live Pigs - As of June 6, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg (- 0.01 kg), and the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.01% (- 0.76%) [6]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 39.5 yuan/head (+ 3.39 yuan/head), and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 94.98 yuan/head (+ 3.21 yuan/head) [6]. Palm Oil - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [6]. - The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is more inverted, and the spot basis is stable with a downward trend [6]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales volume has reached 64% of the expected output, and for the next year, producers have pre - sold 10.8% of the expected output [7]. - Domestic soybeans are affected by tight supply and weak demand, with a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. Treasury Bonds - From January to April, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan [7]. - The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Silver - In May, the non - farm payrolls increased by 13.9 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The short - term bullish sentiment for silver has weakened [8]. PVC - The capacity utilization rate is 80.72% (+ 2.53%), and social inventory is 58.88 tons (- 1.48%) [8]. - The average gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121 yuan/ton), and that of ethylene - based producers is - 520 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [8]. Crude Oil - As of June 6, the number of US oil drilling platforms decreased by 19 to 442 [9]. - Geopolitical factors and low inventory support oil prices in the short term [9]. Rubber - Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement [10]. - Rubber has experienced three consecutive rounds of inventory reduction [10]. PTA - PX CFR is reported at 825 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N spread is 262 US dollars/ton [11]. - The PTA industry load is rising, and polyester inventory remains high [11].

邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】河北天津等地钢厂针对焦炭价格下调进行了 提降，幅度湿熄焦炭下调70元/吨、干熄焦炭下调75元/吨。此 次幅度是基于湿熄50元/吨，干熄55元/吨的基础上，增加了先 前预计下调的20元基价得来。评：预计6日将顺利落地，焦企利 润受损，预计多数将达盈亏平衡线。原料煤保持小幅下降，相 较之前降幅缩小，下游钢厂采购情绪偏差。预计短期有望止 跌，中期弱势尚未逆转，关注反弹做空机会，获利可适时止 盈，注意仓位管理。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1372元/吨，环比上 日-6元/吨；纯碱周产量70.41万吨，环比+2.77%；纯碱厂家总 库存162.7万吨，环比上升0.17%；浮法玻璃开工率75.68%，周 度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均价1209元/吨，环比上日-2元/吨； 全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6975.4万重箱， ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍 生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间 2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关 税仍将维持在25%。评：避险情绪再度增加，利多黄金，但是美 元指数大幅反弹，有所抵消。地缘政治和关税博弈变数增加， 避险需求增加，黄金短期偏多。黄金中期依然高位震荡对待， 关注关税矛盾是否进一步激化。 【短评-橡胶】泰国胶水大跌，下跌4.75泰铢/公斤至56.5 泰铢/公斤；版纳原料下跌，制干胶胶水下跌0.1-0.2元/公斤至 12.5-12.6元/公斤，制浓乳胶水下跌0.1元/公斤至12.8-12.9元 /公斤；海南原料持稳。割胶工作还未完全恢复，原料产出偏 紧，国营胶水收购价为13900元/吨，民营胶水收购价为14900- 15300元/吨；截至2025年5月29日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利 用率为72.51%，环比-1.23个百分点，同比-7.58个百分点；中 国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为60.80%，环比-1.29个百分点， 同比-4.40个百分点。评：国内现货价格持续走低，带动原料价 格整体下滑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of domestic float glass is on a downward trend, with weak overall demand. Due to the rainy season in the South, the market trading is poor. Some enterprises offer discounts to promote sales, and the market price continues to decline. In the Shahe area, factory shipments are average, and dealers mainly sell inventory. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market performs okay, but there are differences in the shipment of different manufacturers. The focus of the East China market has declined slightly, with weak demand and the impact of low - priced glass from the periphery. Most enterprises in the South are mainly focused on shipping due to high inventory [8] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis - Expected Supply Decline**: As of May 29, the national float glass output was 1.1041 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.42 percentage points. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 167.97 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 100.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15.67 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 107.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - **Demand - side Analysis - Weak Orders from Deep - processing Enterprises**: As of May 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to April 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points. The manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [14][15] - **Inventory Analysis - Slight Inventory Reduction of Float Glass Enterprises**: As of May 29, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 107,000 weight boxes and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%, a year - on - year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in North China was average, and the inventory in East China increased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of May 30, the total long - position volume of the top 20 members in glass futures was 910,353, a decrease of 57,489; the total short - position volume was 1,122,204, a decrease of 69,731. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand relationship of soda ash is expected to be loose. The price of soda ash is predicted to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3) Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market weakened steadily, with prices declining slightly. There was a lack of positive support in the market, and the futures price adjusted at a low level. At the beginning of the week, some enterprises lowered prices due to increased supply. Towards the weekend, the news of Alxa's maintenance eased the industry sentiment, and the market was in a cautious wait - and - see mode [8]. - The weekly domestic soda ash production was 685,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,200 tons or 3.19%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises were less than 9 days, showing a downward trend [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply Side Analysis - Supply Expected to Increase Slightly**: As of May 29, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The expected capacity utilization rate this week is over 79%. The theoretical profit of the soda ash by the dual - ton soda ash method was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was 67.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.75% [11]. - **Demand Side Analysis - Downstream Demand of Soda Ash Expected to be Weakly Stable**: As of May 29, there were 102 in - production kilns for photovoltaic glass, with a daily melting volume of 98,780 tons. The industry inventory days increased by 0.58 days. There were no new kiln investment or cold - repair plans this week, and the supply is expected to remain stable. The production of float glass was 1.1041 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. Due to the expected water storage of production lines, the weekly output is expected to decline [15]. - **Inventory Analysis - Inventory of Soda Ash Enterprises Expected to Remain High**: As of May 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 818,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis As of May 30, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 994,153, a decrease of 29,228, and the short positions were 1,238,089, a decrease of 35,074. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current production of soda ash is stable at a high level with average profit, and the production is expected to increase slightly this week. The downstream demand of soda ash is expected to be weakly stable. The production of float glass is expected to decline, while the supply of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the inventory continues to rise. Under the expected loose supply - demand situation, it is difficult for the high - level inventory of soda ash enterprises to continue to decline [22]. - The price of soda ash is expected to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply side is facing a double - negative situation of "theoretical supply pressure increase" and "high live - animal inventory". The demand side is expected to weaken seasonally with only limited increase around the Dragon Boat Festival. Overall, the spot price is likely to adjust weakly. For trading, a short - selling strategy is recommended for near - term contracts, while long - buying opportunities on dips can be considered for far - term contracts. The reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts should be continuously monitored [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - The live - animal inventory is shifting from "accumulation" to "reduction", but the overall average weight of slaughtered pigs remains high, and there is no significant increase in slaughter volume, indicating slow inventory reduction. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, suggesting a significant increase in pig slaughter from April to September [21]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis - As the weather gets hotter, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. Although there may be some increase in demand around the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase is limited based on the current market situation [2][21]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report mentions figures related to self - breeding and self - raising profit per head and profit per head from purchasing piglets, but no specific analysis of cost - profit is provided in the given text. 4. Market Outlook - The analysis of supply and demand is consistent with the previous parts. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach for near - term contracts and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for far - term contracts. Continue to focus on the reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts, and investors should pay close attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm of the breeding side, demand changes, policy orientation, and epidemics [2][21].