宏观消息扰动加剧油价波动，聚酯原料市场情绪偏谨慎 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 1 周度总结 PX & PTA：PX、PTA估值修复后窄幅震荡。成本端，特朗普声称可能下调对中国的关税税率，风偏改善，OPEC+成 员国希望6月加快石油增产，原油盘面再度受到冲击。供给端，PX国内装置开工率为74.4%（环比-3.4%），亚洲 开工率71.2%（环比-1.3%）。逸盛大连225万吨装置4月26日开始检修，持续6周。另外375万吨装置重启。福建百 宏250万吨装置已重启。恒力计划4月28日对惠州PTA-2（250万吨）装置检修，5月10日附近对大连PTA-2装置 （220万吨）检修。PTA开工率在88.1%（+7%）。需求端，聚酯负荷目前为93.9%（环比+0.5%）。宏观消息对油价 的扰动仍存，但盘面修复或加快。PX、PTA估值逐步回归基本面逻辑。 行情回顾 宏观消息反复或引发盘面加快修正 下游或跟随油价承压 关税引发需求悲观预期 PTA去库利多作用被削弱 国内开工进一步下滑， 进口到港量增加对冲利好作用 ...

新能源锂电 通惠期货•研发产品系列 碳酸锂日报 2025 年 04 月 24 日 星期四 碳酸锂基本面维持弱势，宏观变动或引发双向波动加剧 一、 日度市场总结 4 月 23 日，碳酸锂期货窄幅波动，主力合约 LC2507 收 68980 元/吨，较前一交易日收盘上涨 1.68%。碳酸锂现货报 价松动，低位波动，电池级碳酸锂现货成交均价较前一交易 日下跌 450 元/吨。 有色网数据显示，4 月 18 日当周碳酸锂的周度产量为 17388 吨，环比前一周减少 3.20%，周度产量变化幅度较 小，整体处于历史绝对高位；截至 4 月 18 日当周碳酸锂周 度库存为 131605 吨，环比增加 0.45%，同时磷酸铁锂电池周 产量为 15.69GWh，环比增加 1.62%。 据乘联会数据，4 月 1-20 日，新能源车市场零售同比增 长 20%，环比下降 11%。全国乘用车厂商新能源批发同比去 年同期增长 23%，环比下降 7%。 上周碳酸锂周度产量仍旧维持高位，下游产量也有恢 复，但是相比于年初的高产量仍有差距；碳酸锂产业链中间 环节的传导也并不通常，整体上碳酸锂仍旧呈现持续累库的 局面。 期货方面，昨日碳酸锂期货 ...

宏观有色 通惠期货•研发产品系列 热点聚焦 2025 年 4 月 24 日 星期四 "特朗普衰退交易"预期下的商品走势之（六） 在对抗中谋发展，从内需出发稳中求进 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 美国利用关税对中国发难一事的第一阶段目前已进入尾声，中美完 全脱钩不排除是此次对抗的可能结局之一，从最近的市场吹风以及政策 发布看，国内正在为新一轮的刺激政策做准备，以稳定中国经济总量， 同时在结构上填补中美对抗造成的空缺，本文将梳理近期已发布的政策 信息，同时探讨 4 月政治局会议可能的发力方向。 一季度 GDP 增速达到 5.4%，表现偏强，但是 CPI 同比下降 0.1%， PPI 同比下降 2.5%，可以看出，特朗普关税落地前的"抢订单"行情明 显，实质需求偏弱的特点并未出现实质性改变；考虑到 4 月的关税冲击 行情大开大合，实质冲击也将在二季度逐步显现， ...

能源化工 乙二醇日报 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 昨日，乙二醇华东现货价格 4200 元/吨，较前一日下跌 55 元/ 吨。主力合约收盘 4180 元/吨，较前一交易上涨 0.59%。基差为 30 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓 解。WTI原油主力收64.39美元/桶，布油收67.22美元/桶。供给端， 内蒙古中化学30万吨装置重启推迟至4月中旬，此前该装置于3月23 日附近停车。上海石化38万吨装置预计4月底重启，此前主产环氧。 新疆一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车，初步预计7月份重启。沙 特一套55万吨装置近期重启，此前于2月份停车检修。沙特一套70 万吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修，预计检修两个月左右。 上海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启，镇海炼化原计划3月底重启， 现推迟至年底，内蒙兖矿40万吨计划3月下旬停车1个月，陕西榆林 化学有两条线计划4月份检修。乐天美国70万吨产能计划4月份检修， 马来西亚石油75万吨产能计划4-5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Macro news disturbances have intensified market fluctuations, leading to a slight repair in the valuations of PX and PTA. The negotiation process between the US and Iran has hindered the rebound of oil prices, and Trump's intervention in the Fed's independence has reignited risk - aversion sentiment. Subsequently, Trump's claim that China's reciprocal tariff level is too high has alleviated market concerns, resulting in a slight upward movement in oil prices. The pessimistic export outlook for the polyester downstream and weak domestic demand may cause the negative feedback in the industrial chain to continue. The US reciprocal tariff policy has impacted the terminal demand for polyester. Attention should be paid to future tariff negotiation trends, and in the short - term, it will follow cost changes [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PX & PTA - PX: The main contract PX2509 closed at 6,110 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 162 yuan/ton. Multiple domestic PX plants have maintenance plans, with the domestic operating rate at 77.8% and the Asian operating rate at 72.5% [1][2]. - PTA: The main contract PTA2509 closed at 4,350 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton. Some PTA plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the operating rate is around 81.1%. The total transaction volume in the Light Textile City was 1.076 million meters, with a 15 - day average of 885,200 meters [1][2]. 3.1.2 Polyester - Short - fiber: The main contract PF2506 closed at 6,010 yuan/ton, up 0.84% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,285 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 260 yuan/ton. Some short - fiber production capacities have implemented production cuts, and the supply - side pressure is expected to be significantly reduced [4]. - Bottle chips: The operating rate of bottle chips has increased by 15.47% to 80.46% as the maintenance devices have gradually restarted, putting pressure on the supply side [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price decreased by 0.98%, the trading volume increased by 2.01%, and the open interest decreased by 0.05%. The CFR price in the Chinese main port decreased by 0.40%, and the basis increased by 35.80% [6]. - **PTA**: The main contract price decreased by 1.01%, the trading volume increased by 4.58%, and the open interest increased by 5.41%. The CFR price in the Chinese main port remained unchanged, the basis increased by 88.00%, and the import profit increased by 6.06% [6]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price decreased by 0.47%, the trading volume decreased by 15.75%, and the open interest increased by 0.01%. The mainstream price in the East China market decreased by 0.40%, and the basis increased by 23.20% [6]. - **Other indicators**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the price of ethylene glycol decreased. The prices of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged. The processing spreads of most products increased, and the inventory days of some polyester products changed [7][8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics - China's central bank released March financial data, showing that the new loans and social financing increment significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a slow recovery in financing demand. However, due to the uncertain progress of the tariff war, the economic uncertainty remains high, and the bottom - supporting policy will be implemented according to the situation [9]. - In the US, the import prices unexpectedly decreased in March due to the decline in energy product prices, indicating that inflation was easing before Trump's comprehensive tariff policy took effect [9].

李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 原油、燃料油日报 2025 年 4 月 22 日 星期二 油价因空头回补而攀升，但关税担忧仍笼罩市场 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 油价周一下跌超 2%，原因是有迹象表明美国和伊朗之间的谈判取得了进展，同时 市场利用此跌势回补空头头寸，尽管对关税和美国货币政策可能抑制燃料需求的经济 阻力的担忧依然存在。内盘，4 月 21 日 SC 主力合约跌幅 0.29%，报 489.2 元/桶；夜 盘 SC 收跌于 487.2 元/桶。外盘，4 月 21 日 WTI 收跌 1.32 美元/桶，报 62.69 美元/ 桶；Brent 收跌 1.41 美元/桶，报 65.59 美元/桶。 宏观面，美国总统特朗普继续公开施压美联储并威胁解雇鲍威尔，加剧市场对货币 政策独立性的担忧，美元指数跌至近五个月新低，避险情绪推动黄金创历史新高，包括 美股在内的风险资产普遍承压。地缘方面，美伊双方在 4 月 19 日会谈后确认起草核 ...

新能源锂电 通惠期货•研发产品系列 碳酸锂日报 2025 年 04 月 22 日 星期二 4 月 21 日，碳酸锂期货窄幅波动，主力合约 LC2507 收 69000 元/吨，较前一交易日收盘下跌 1.68%。碳酸锂现货报 价松动，低位波动，电池级碳酸锂现货成交均价较前一交易 日下跌 600 元/吨。 有色网数据显示，4 月 18 日当周碳酸锂的周度产量为 17388 吨，环比前一周减少 3.20%，周度产量变化幅度较 小，整体处于历史绝对高位；截至 4 月 18 日当周碳酸锂周 度库存为 131605 吨，环比增加 0.45%，同时磷酸铁锂电池周 产量为 15.69GWh，环比增加 1.62%。 据乘联会数据，4 月 1-13 日，新能源车市场零售同比增 长 15%，环比下降 17%。全国乘用车厂商新能源批发同比去 年同期增长 25%，环比下降 9%。 上周碳酸锂周度产量仍旧维持高位，下游产量也有恢 复，但是相比于年初的高产量仍有差距；碳酸锂产业链中间 环节的传导也并不通常，整体上碳酸锂仍旧呈现持续累库的 局面。 期货方面，昨日空头资金发力再度打压，主力合约价格 下行至 70000 元下方，现货价格波动范围 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy supports the stabilization and rebound of oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward macro - economic pressure and the expected deterioration of fundamentals due to OPEC's production increase continue to suppress oil prices. After significant fluctuations, oil prices may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [4]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged down by the cost side and have difficulty in having independent market trends. The high - sulfur variety's short - term strong support pattern remains unchanged, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety has not shown significant pressure for the time being [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) strengthened restrictions on Iran's oil trade, adding a Chinese independent refinery and multiple shipping companies and vessels to the sanctions list. On April 17, the domestic SC main contract rose 1.88% to 482.7 yuan/barrel, and closed at 495.3 yuan/barrel at night. Internationally, WTI closed up 1.92 dollars/barrel at 63.75 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 1.96 dollars/barrel at 66.92 dollars/barrel [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Situation - Powell mentioned that the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff" policy may lead to persistent inflation and slower economic growth, and reiterated not to rush to cut interest rates. Trump criticized Powell, and the conflict between them may affect US economic policies and financial market stability. Ukraine and the US signed a memorandum on a mineral agreement, and Trump said the agreement would be signed on the 24th [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The US imposed the eighth round of sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil trade network, which increased concerns about a decline in Iran's crude oil production. The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day this year, 260,000 barrels per day lower than last month's forecast. Russia plans to keep its crude oil production and exports stable until 2050 [13][14]. Demand - Due to trade tensions, the IEA and OPEC both lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. China's imports of Iranian crude oil reached a record high of 1.8 million barrels per day in March, with Shandong alone absorbing over 1.5 million barrels per day [15]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 515,000 barrels in the week ending April 11. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.4%, indicating that the spring maintenance this year may last longer than usual. The terminal demand was weak, and the reduction in gasoline inventory slowed down [3]. 3.5 Price Monitoring Crude Oil - On April 17, the futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all rose, with increases of 3.32%, 2.92%, and 2.71% respectively. Most of the spot prices also increased, and the price differences between different varieties changed to varying degrees [7]. Fuel Oil - On April 17, the futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all increased, with increases of 2.42%, 3.36%, and 1.26% respectively. Most of the spot and paper - cargo prices also increased, and the inventory in Singapore increased by 3.93% [8]. 3.6 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - The domestic SC main contract and some spot prices rose. Internationally, WTI and Brent prices also increased. The US - Iran sanctions, trade tensions, and other factors affected the supply and demand of the oil market [9][10][13]. 3.7 Industry Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which visually show the historical trends and current situations of the oil market [18][21][23]

成本端，中美关税博弈引发油价波动加剧。WTI 原油主力收 61.94 美 元/桶，布油收 65.04 美元/桶。供应端，PX：盛虹炼化 400 万吨装置 4 月 有重整计划，预计 PX 降负荷，扬子石化重整检修至 5 月上旬，PX 有降负 预期，天津石化计划 4-6 月份检修，海南炼化计划 4-5 月检修，中海油 惠州 150 万吨计划 3 月底检修 50 天左右。浙石化 250 万吨计划 3 月下检 修 35-45 天左右，九江石化计划 3 月 15 日停车检修至 5 月。PX 国内装置 开工率为 77.8%，亚洲开工率为 72.5%。PTA：恒力石化计划 4 月 28 日开 始对惠州 PTA-2 装置例行检修，涉及产能 250 万吨，计划 5 月 10 日附近 开始对大连 PTA-2 装置例行检修，涉及产能 220 万吨。逸盛海南 210 万 吨预计 4 月 5 日起停车改造 2 个月，逸盛大连 375 万吨计划 4 月中恢复。 PTA 开工率在 81.1%附近。聚酯：聚酯开工率在 93.4%附近。需求端，轻 纺城成交总量 927 万米，15 日平均成交为 878.73 万米。 美国继续推动对伊朗制裁，欧 ...

能源化工 乙二醇日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 18 日 星期五 到港量增多叠加需求预期悲观，乙二醇维持偏弱震荡格局 一、日度市场总结 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 昨日，乙二醇华东现货价格 4170 元/吨，较前一日下跌 5 元/ 吨。主力合约收盘 4113 元/吨，较前一交易上涨 0.02%。基差为 107 元/吨。 成本端，中美关税博弈引发油价波动加剧。WTI原油主力收 61.94美元/桶，布油收65.04美元/桶。供给端，内蒙古中化学30万 吨装置重启推迟至4月中旬，此前该装置于3月23日附近停车。上海 石化38万吨装置预计4月底重启，此前主产环氧。新疆一套40万吨 装置因故于3月20日停车，初步预计7月份重启。沙特一套55万吨装 置近期重启，此前于2月份停车检修。沙特一套70万吨装置计划于4 月中前后开始停车检修，预计检修两个月左右。上海石化38万吨产 能预计4月份重启，镇海炼化原计划3月底重启，现推迟至年底，内 蒙兖矿40万吨计划3月下旬停 ...