Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supported by the dual - loose expectations of monetary and fiscal policies in the US, the economy is expected to recover moderately, and the US dollar is likely to fluctuate at a high level, reducing the suppression of risk assets. China will enter the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the economy growing steadily, and fiscal and monetary policies remaining moderately loose. The resonance of domestic and foreign policies is expected to improve the marginal demand for commodities [4][107]. - In terms of supply, the global zinc concentrate increment in 2026 will be about 500,000 metal tons, narrowing compared to 2025, and the raw material supply - demand will turn to a tight balance. The long - term processing fee is expected to rise, but the recovery of overseas refined zinc supply is limited. In China, the smelting capacity continues to expand, but the growth rate of refined zinc production will slow down to 5%, and the actual capacity release of the Huoshaoyun project is the core variable of the domestic supply pattern [4][107]. - The demand shows the characteristics of "slowing growth and sector differentiation". The infrastructure investment growth rate is expected to recover to 4% - 5%, and the projects will be launched in advance. The policy of replacing old with new supports durable - goods consumption, but the growth of automobile production and sales slows down, the policy effect of home appliances weakens, and exports are under pressure. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations turn negative due to the high base, while the wind power maintains positive growth. The export resilience of primary products will provide consumption increments [4][107]. - Overall, the global zinc mining and smelting are still in the expansion cycle, the supply growth of zinc elements exceeds the demand growth, and the oversupply situation expands slightly. The core logic of zinc price pressure remains unchanged. However, the macro - drive is positive, and the positive expectations of copper and aluminum are expected to partially offset the short - board of zinc fundamentals. In 2026, the zinc price is difficult to show a unilateral market, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 21,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton. There will be phased unilateral opportunities during the macro - micro resonance stage, and the structural opportunities are anchored on the main line of price ratio repair [4][108]. Summary According to the Directory I. Zinc Market Review - In 2025, the zinc market was weak overall, with prominent internal - external structural contradictions. The price fluctuated downward under the influence of macro - policies and fundamental factors. In the first half of the year, factors such as Trump's possible tariff policy and the Fed's suspension of interest - rate cuts suppressed the zinc price. In the second half, the market was in a pattern of "repeated policy expectations and stalemate fundamentals", and the Shanghai zinc main contract fluctuated in the range of 21,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton. The LME zinc showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the price rebounded due to the decline in LME inventory [9][10]. II. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - In 2025, the US economy achieved a soft landing. The GDP growth rate was 2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. The ISM manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, the employment market declined, and inflation rebounded moderately. The Fed started preventive interest - rate cuts in September. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.1%. The impact of tariffs will weaken, and inflation may decline slightly. The fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain loose, but the change of the Fed chairman may affect the interest - rate cut path. The US dollar is expected to fluctuate, which will relieve the suppression of commodities [13][14]. 2.2 Eurozone - In 2025, the Eurozone economy recovered slightly in the first three quarters, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2%. Inflation dropped to 2.1%, and the ECB kept the key interest rate unchanged since July. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.1%, and the internal differentiation will continue. Germany's economy may recover, while France's growth may slow down. Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2%, and the ECB's monetary policy is expected to remain stable. The fiscal policy may expand structurally [15][16]. 2.3 China - In 2025, China's economic growth showed a "high - in - the - front and low - in - the - back" feature, with an annual growth rate of about 5%. Exports were strong, but domestic consumption and private investment were weak. In 2026, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the economy is expected to grow steadily, with a GDP growth target of about 5%. The quarterly growth rate may be "low - in - the - front and high - in - the - back". Exports are expected to benefit from the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the fiscal loosening in Europe and the US. The fiscal policy will be more active, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose [17][18]. III. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate new capacity was 700,000 tons, with an increment of 700,000 metal tons to 12.7 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity will narrow to 500,000 tons to 13.2 million tons. The domestic market will contribute the main increment. The supply - demand pattern is expected to turn from loose to tight balance [29][30]. - The internal and external processing fees first rose and then fell in 2025. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropped to 2,000 yuan/metal ton at the end of the year. The import processing fee also declined in November. The CZSPT proposed a 2026Q1 import processing fee guidance of 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the zinc ore import increased significantly, and it is expected to remain above 5 million tons in 2026 [36][37][38]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, the global refined zinc production increased by 4.12% year - on - year. Overseas production decreased by 5.48% in the first nine months, while China's increased by 7.03%. In 2026, overseas refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly by 50,000 - 100,000 tons, but the recovery is limited due to factors such as cost and raw material supply [44][48]. - In 2025, China's refined zinc production increased by 10.7% year - on - year. In 2026, the production is expected to increase by 350,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, with a growth rate slowing down to 5.1%. The actual production of the Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry project is an important variable. In 2025, the net import of refined zinc was about 250,000 - 260,000 tons, and in 2026, the import and export volume may offset each other [53][54][57]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, in 2025, the refined zinc consumption increased by 3.9% year - on - year. In 2026, India's zinc demand is expected to continue to expand, the US zinc consumption is expected to grow steadily, and Europe's traditional consumption may improve marginally while the green industry will support consumption [67][68]. - In China, in 2025, the apparent consumption increased by more than 8%, but the actual consumption was weak. The primary product exports were strong, and the galvanized sheet export is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Traditional consumption such as infrastructure and real estate was weak in 2025, and infrastructure investment is expected to recover in 2026. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption will weaken. The growth of automobile and home appliance sales will slow down in 2026. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations may turn negative, while the wind power will maintain positive growth [71][73][77]. 3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In 2025, the global visible inventory had prominent structural contradictions. The LME inventory decreased, and the low inventory supported the LME zinc price. The domestic inventory increased, suppressing the Shanghai zinc price. In 2026, the LME inventory is expected to have limited recovery, and the domestic high - inventory pressure may be difficult to relieve, especially in Q1 [105][106]. IV. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The macro - environment in 2026 is expected to be favorable for the zinc market. The supply - demand pattern will change, with the supply growth narrowing and the demand showing sector differentiation. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there will be phased and structural opportunities [107][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - From January to November 2025, the soybean meal market was influenced by factors such as South American production expectations, Sino-US trade relations, US soybean growing - season weather, Sino - Canadian trade uncertainties, and sufficient Brazilian soybean arrivals. Under the pressure of a generally loose supply pattern, the futures price continued to fluctuate in a low - level range [3]. - The December USDA report shows that the US soybean yield per unit and export volume remain unchanged, and there is limited room for adjustment in US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of February 2026, with 5.5 - 6 million tons already purchased, and the current purchase pace is acceptable. Market institutions expect the US soybean planting area to increase in 2026 [3]. - Brazil has completed soybean sowing, and Argentina's sowing progress is about 50%. The current South American weather is favorable, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The combined soybean output of the two countries is expected to increase by 1 million tons year - on - year, and the loose supply pattern continues [3]. - From January to October 2025, the feed output was 275.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. Domestic feed demand will slow down next year as breeding enterprises are in the process of reducing production capacity. Global soybean crushing demand has a slight increase, mainly due to the expansion of US production capacity and the development of biodiesel policies, and a small increase in Brazilian biodiesel [3]. - Assuming continued bumper harvests in South American producing areas, an increase in the US soybean planting area, and maintaining the trend yield per unit, domestic soybean meal demand will slow down slightly due to the reduction of production capacity in the breeding sector. In the context of a loose supply pattern, the upside and downside spaces are both limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the low - level range of 2500 - 3300 yuan/ton [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - From January to the Spring Festival in 2024, the continuous soybean meal contract rebounded after an oversell due to factors such as the significant downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit in the January USDA report, disruptions in the Argentine producing area, slow initial harvesting progress in Brazil, and the short - term emotional support from tariff policy expectations. From February to March 2025, the price fluctuated widely. The acceleration of the Brazilian harvest, improved crop forecasts in Argentina, and the cooling of tariff policy speculation weakened the upward momentum, while the increasing domestic soybean arrivals and the loosening supply of soybean meal suppressed the price. From April to May, the price first rose sharply and then fell. The sharp increase in US tariffs, the decline in the US soybean planting area, and the slowdown of the soybean clearance rhythm supported the price, but the subsequent large - scale arrival of Brazilian soybeans led to a continuous decline. From June to July, the price first rose and then fell due to weather - related factors and supply expectations. In August, the price rose due to the significant downward adjustment of the US soybean planting area. From late August to mid - October, the price weakened due to sufficient supply from Brazilian soybeans. From late October to the present, the price first rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and then fell due to factors such as the slow progress of US soybean exports and the good weather in South American producing areas [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report shows that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 422.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 790,000 tons; the global soybean crushing demand is 365.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons; the global soybean ending inventory is 122.37 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons compared with the November estimate. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.01%, slightly tightened compared with the previous year. The overall supply - demand pattern remains loose [10]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report made no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, with a neutral impact. In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area remains at 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit at 53 bushels per acre, the export demand at 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory at 290 million bushels, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 6.74%. The total planting area of US soybeans, corn, and wheat has been relatively stable in recent years. In 2025, the US soybean planting area was the lowest in the past five years. Market institutions expect the US soybean planting area to increase to 84 million acres in 2026 [16]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to NOPA data, the US soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 227.647 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/26 season is 4.5%. As of the end of October 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.305 billion pounds [21]. 2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending October 30, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were 1.248 million tons. The cumulative export sales volume was 17.2 million tons, with a sales progress of 38.6%, lower than 55.5% in the same period last year. After the Sino - US high - level meeting in late October, China restarted the purchase of US soybeans. As of early December, China's purchase volume is estimated to be between 5.5 and 6 million tons, and the US expects China to purchase 12 million tons by the end of February 2026. The December USDA report made no adjustments to export demand, and the subsequent adjustment space is limited [25]. 2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The November USDA report shows that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season remains at 175 million tons, the export demand at 112.5 million tons (an increase of 9.35 million tons compared with the previous year), and the crushing demand at 59 million tons (an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year). The ending inventory is 36.36 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 20.68%. The export demand has been significantly increased, and China's import structure will further increase the weight of Brazilian soybeans. Brazil's biodiesel policy will lead to a small increase in soybean crushing demand in the future. In 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume in October was 6.73 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October was 100.64 million tons. The export volume to China in October was 6.17 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October was 78.93 million tons. As of the week ending November 29, 2025, the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was 86%, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest [27][30][33]. 2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The December USDA report shows that the Argentine soybean output in the 2025/26 season remains at 48.5 million tons, the import at 7.7 million tons, the export demand at 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand at 41 million tons, and the ending inventory at 22.84 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 40.46%. Due to the reduction of the sowing area, the output is estimated to be 48.5 million tons. The export demand has increased this year, leading to a tightening of the domestic soybean supply and a decline in the crushing demand. The inventory structure is relatively stable. As of the previous week, the soybean sowing progress was 44.7%. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing area is expected to be 25 - 30mm, which is conducive to sowing [34][46]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - According to customs data, China's soybean import volume in October 2025 was 9.48 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 95.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73 million tons. As of the week ending December 2, the purchase progress for December, January, and February shipments is 97%, 56%, and 41% respectively. The 2025/26 purchase volume of US soybeans is about 4 million tons. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of rapeseed from January to October was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed meal in October was 221,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 2.33 million tons. The import structure has changed, with India and Russia as alternative suppliers. The start of the auction of imported soybean reserves can supplement the market supply [47][49]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventories - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, the unfulfilled contracts were 3.881 million tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 9.576 million tons. As of the week ending December 5, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 140,280 tons, the daily average提货量 was 184,300 tons, the major oil mill crushing volume was 2.0558 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.49 days. With the decrease in imports and the increase in pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory of oil mills will be depleted faster, supporting the near - term contracts [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. From January to October, the feed output was 275.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. However, as breeding enterprises are in the process of reducing production capacity, domestic feed demand will slow down next year [55][56]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - From January to November 2025, the soybean meal market fluctuated in a low - level range under the influence of various factors and the pressure of a loose supply pattern. The December USDA report shows limited adjustment space for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The South American weather is favorable, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strengthened. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is expected to increase by 1 million tons year - on - year. The global soybean crushing demand has a slight increase, while domestic feed demand will slow down next year. In the context of a loose supply pattern, the soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate in the low - level range of 2500 - 3300 yuan/ton [68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market will experience wide - range fluctuations in 2026. The supply of lead concentrates will shift from shortage to tight balance, with global new capacity increasing from 110,000 tons in 2025 to 230,000 tons in 2026. The processing fees are expected to remain low with a narrowing decline. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise due to supply - demand mismatch [2][71]. - The growth of global refined lead supply will slow down in 2026. Domestic primary lead production will increase by 100,000 tons to 3.94 million tons, while secondary lead production may decrease by 0.5% year - on - year due to the implementation of the new national standard and constraints on raw materials and profits [2][71]. - Policy support for terminal consumption is expected to continue, with replacement demand and new - standard electric vehicle demand driving battery consumption. However, battery exports will face challenges from trade barriers and technological substitution, leading to a slight decline in consumption growth [2][71]. - Overall, macro - drivers are moderately positive, and cost support and rigid procurement will underpin lead prices. But increased supply and falling demand growth may lead to a wider supply - demand surplus, causing the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures to fluctuate widely between 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [2][72]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lead Market Review - In 2025, Shanghai lead futures showed wide - range fluctuations, mainly between 16,165 - 17,840 yuan/ton. By December 10, the main contract price closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 1.7% from the beginning of the year [7]. - London lead futures were slightly weaker than Shanghai lead. By December 10, the price closed at 1,988 US dollars/ton, up 2.8% from the beginning of the year [8]. 3.2 Lead Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Lead Ore Supply - In 2025, global new lead concentrate capacity was 110,000 tons, with overseas capacity increasing by about 60,000 tons and domestic by about 55,000 tons. In 2026, global new capacity is expected to increase to 230,000 tons, with overseas at 90,000 tons and domestic at 143,000 tons [12][13][14]. - In 2025, lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, with domestic and imported fees dropping by 300 yuan/metal ton and 125 US dollars/dry ton respectively by December. In 2026, processing fees are expected to remain weak with a slowdown in the decline [21]. - In 2025, lead ore imports increased by 10% year - on - year to about 1.36 million tons. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to slow to about 5%. Silver concentrate imports are expected to grow steadily [22][23]. 3.2.2 Refined Lead Supply - In 2025, global refined lead production increased by 4.42% to 13.341 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to grow by 1% to 13.472 million tons [27][30]. - In 2025, domestic primary lead production increased by 6.4% to 3.84 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by 2.6% to 3.94 million tons [32]. - In 2025, domestic secondary lead production decreased by 0.5% to 3.176 million tons. In 2026, with the implementation of the new national standard, production is expected to decrease by another 0.5% to 3.16 million tons [37][40]. 3.2.3 Refined Lead Demand - In 2025, global refined lead consumption increased by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons, with a surplus of 91,000 tons. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons, with a slightly wider surplus [49][50]. - In 2025, refined lead and lead products had a net import, while battery exports decreased significantly. In 2026, the export growth of refined lead and lead products is expected to slow, and net imports will continue. Battery exports will still face challenges but may decline at a slower pace [52][53]. - Policy support for terminal consumption will continue. In 2026, electric bicycle and automobile sectors will maintain demand for lead - acid batteries, and the energy storage sector will see stable growth, but lithium - ion battery substitution will pose long - term pressure [57][60][61]. 3.2.4 Inventory Performance - In 2025, LME lead inventory increased slightly and fluctuated at a high level, reaching 236,900 tons by December 9. Domestic inventory decreased significantly, dropping to 20,500 tons by December 8 [66]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook for the Future - In 2026, the lead market will be affected by cost and supply - demand factors, with the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuating widely between 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, before the December FOMC, employment data showed a structural divergence. The "small non - farm" ADP improved marginally, while the overall labor market continued to cool according to the October JOLTS data. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, the US dollar index returned to 99.2, and the prices of different commodities showed various trends. In China, the economy is expected to continue to improve in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and more active macro - policies will be implemented. The A - share market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market's short - term adjustment may be coming to an end [2][3] - Silver soared above $60 due to supply constraints and is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback after the Fed's interest - rate decision. Copper prices fell due to concerns about the economic outlook and high prices, and are expected to oscillate. Aluminum prices adjusted due to the expected hawkish interest - rate cut. Alumina prices are expected to decline due to supply overcapacity. Cast aluminum is in a state of oscillatory adjustment due to weakening supply and demand. Zinc prices are oscillating and waiting for the interest - rate meeting's guidance. Lead prices are adjusting with limited downward space. Tin prices are expected to make a small - scale high - level adjustment. Industrial silicon prices are falling due to poor demand. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak supply and demand and falling costs. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to high inventories. Coking coal and coke prices are continuing to weaken due to high imports and weak demand. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to Argentina's tariff cuts and other factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range waiting for the MPOB report [4][6][8][10][11][12][15][16][17][19][20][21][23][25] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: Before the December FOMC, the "small non - farm" ADP showed short - term stabilization, with an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs in the four weeks up to November 22. However, the October JOLTS data indicated that the overall labor market continued to cool, with job vacancies rising to a five - month high, a more than 4% decline in recruitment, layoffs reaching 1.85 million (the highest since early 2023), and the voluntary resignation rate dropping to a five - year low. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.18%, the US dollar index returned to 99.2, the US stock market fluctuated and diverged, gold closed up, silver rose above $60, copper prices fell 1.3%, and crude oil continued to weaken [2] - Domestic: China will implement more active macro - policies in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period to ensure a reasonable economic growth rate. The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume on Tuesday, and is expected to oscillate in the short term. The bond market recovered slightly, and the short - term adjustment may be ending. Attention should be paid to November's price and financial data and the Central Economic Work Conference [3] Precious Metals - Silver prices soared above $60, driving up the prices of other precious metals. The World Silver Association predicts that industrial demand will continue to grow until 2030. Silver prices are supported by low supply, falling global inventories, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and being included in the US critical minerals list. Traders expect an 89.6% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut this week. The current bullish sentiment towards silver among funds remains strong, but there is a risk of a pullback after the Fed's interest - rate decision [4][5] Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper tested the 91,000 - yuan level, and LME copper fell from a high. The spot market for electrolytic copper had light trading. Trump's remarks on the Fed's rate - cut decision and tariff policies, along with a predicted 87% probability of a rate cut in the Thursday meeting, suggest that this may be the last hawkish rate cut of the year. Concerns about the economic outlook before the US rate cut and high copper prices in China, combined with weak demand and the strengthening US dollar, led to a decline in copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6][7] Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,825 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The LME aluminum price also fell. The market expects the Fed to make a third consecutive rate cut, and the better - than - expected labor data strengthens the expectation of a hawkish rate cut. The fundamentals of supply and demand are stable, but the previous upward trend in copper prices that drove up aluminum prices has temporarily ended. Aluminum prices are adjusting at a high level [8][9] Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,546 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The supply of alumina continues to be in surplus, and there is no sign of large - scale active production cuts. The expected weak balance between supply and demand means that the weak trend of alumina prices is difficult to change in the short term [10] Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The decline in the price of scrap aluminum due to the high - level adjustment of Shanghai aluminum affected the cost side. On the consumption side, the volatile aluminum prices made downstream consumption cautious. On the supply side, some enterprises suffered losses due to the rapid rise in aluminum prices, and their production started to decline slightly. Both supply and demand weakened slightly, and cast aluminum is in an oscillatory adjustment state [11] Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a weak intraday oscillation and a high - opening and low - closing at night. The Swedish mining company Boliden plans to reduce its capital expenditure in 2026 and focus on existing core projects. The market expects a hawkish rate cut by the Fed, and the strengthening US dollar suppresses zinc prices. The downstream is still afraid of high prices, and zinc prices are oscillating and waiting for the guidance of the interest - rate meeting [12][14] Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased in position and fell during the day and oscillated downward at night. The decline in market sentiment and the technical adjustment of LME lead led to a follow - up decline in Shanghai lead. The pressure on the supply side has weakened marginally due to increased maintenance of primary and secondary smelters, and the demand for automotive starting batteries is good. The social inventory remains at a low level for the year, providing support for lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to adjust in the short term, but the supply reduction and stable demand limit the adjustment space [15] Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak intraday oscillation and a narrow - range oscillation at night. The better - than - expected US employment data and the approaching Fed meeting made funds cautious, leading to a reduction in positions and a high - level adjustment of futures prices. The armed conflict in eastern Congo has not eased, but the market has priced in the impact on tin - ore transportation, and production has not been substantially affected. Higher tin prices have further suppressed consumption, and social inventories have continued to increase. Short - term tin prices lack upward momentum and are expected to make a small - scale high - level adjustment waiting for guidance [16] Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated weakly. The demand for industrial silicon is weak. On the supply side, Xinjiang maintains an 85% operating rate, production in the southwest has declined significantly during the dry season, and there is no expectation of increased production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia. On the demand side, the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises is poor, the production schedule of silicon wafers and battery cells is declining, and the actual demand for centralized - type photovoltaic installations is decreasing. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17][18] Steel - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The spot market is weak, with poor demand due to the cold wave. The willingness of traders in the Northeast to store steel for the winter is low. The supply and demand of steel are both weak. The reduction in rebar production has accelerated, and the supply - demand relationship has improved, with inventories continuing to decline, strengthening the support for rebar. The supply - demand data of hot - rolled coils has changed little, with a loose supply - demand situation and high - level inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak supply - demand drivers and falling costs [19] Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. As of December 1, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports reached 160.2398 million tons, an increase of 1.0829 million tons from the previous Monday. The supply of iron ore is strong and the demand is weak, with continuous inventory increases. This week, the overseas iron - ore arrivals have decreased while shipments have increased, both at high levels, and the port inventory has increased at a high level. On the demand side, steel - mill profits have shrunk, the scale of blast - furnace maintenance has expanded, and pig - iron production has declined. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [20] Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures fell. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and port inventories are rising. Domestic mine production is stable, and upstream inventories have increased significantly. Coke - oven operations have increased, but downstream demand is weak, with slow coke sales and increasing inventories. The demand for blast - furnace raw materials is poor as the steel market enters the off - season. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to weaken [21][22] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures closed down. The December USDA report showed that the US 2025/2026 soybean yield and export demand were not adjusted, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels. Argentina's soybean production remained at 48.5 million tons, and Brazil's remained at 175 million tons, with a slight increase in the world's soybean ending inventory. Argentina is reducing export tariffs on agricultural products, increasing the export pressure on the international market. The state - reserve will release 512,500 tons of imported soybeans on the 11th. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [23][24] Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed down. The USDA report shows that the global 2025/26 palm - oil production is expected to be 80.016 million tons, a downward revision of 800,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.206 million tons, a downward revision of 383,000 tons. The MPOB reported that floods have affected palm - oil harvesting and transportation, impacting November's production. The global palm - oil supply and demand remain in a relatively tight balance, with production growth matching demand growth. Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term waiting for the MPOB report [25][26]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251209 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外市场情绪谨慎，国内政治局会议召开 海外方面，特朗普政策出现"科技局部松动与贸易再趋强硬"的双重信号：政府拟允许 英伟达 H200 以收费模式对华出口，显示高端芯片监管出现边际调整；同时特朗普再度施压 邻国，威胁提升对墨西哥和加拿大的关税，引发外部摩擦升温。热门美联储主席候选人哈塞 特重申，美联储应坚持数据依赖，不提前给出路径承诺。多重政策预期交织下，市场情绪偏 谨慎，美股震荡走弱，美元指数回升至 99，10Y 美债收益率升至 4.16%，铜价续创新高，而 油金承压回落。 国内方面，中央政治局会议部署 2026 年经济工作，强调稳中求进、提质增效，继续实 施积极财政与适度宽松货币政策，加大逆周期与跨周期调节，提升宏观治理效能。会议提出 坚持内需主导、建设强大国内市场，并以创新驱动培育壮大新动能，总体而言符合预期，等 待下半周中央经济工作会议更多细节。11 月外贸明显回升，出口同比 5.9%，进口同比 1.9%， 对欧盟、非洲、拉美地区出口走强是 ...

海外关注 12 月 FOMC， 国内监管释放"扶优限劣"信号 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 宏观周报 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ⚫ 海外方面，美国9月核心PCE同比维持在2.8%，符合市场预 期，其中核心商品走高、核心服务降温，巩固12月降息25BP 的预期。密歇根12月消费者信心初值回升至53.3，结束四连 降；1年和5年通胀预期分别降至4.1%和3.2%，均回落至年 初低点，反映居民对未来财务状况与就业的判断有所改善， 通胀预期压力同步缓解。上述数据巩固市场对本月降息25bp 的押注，周五美股小幅走高，10Y美债利率回升至4.12 ...

铜周报 海外库存错配，铜价强势上行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价强势上行，主因美国9月核心PCE低于预期助推降 息情绪升温，某大宗商品巨头上周大量注销LME亚洲库仓 单引发海外货源紧缺担忧，叠加市场普遍猜测未来美联储 影子主席将坚持鸽派立场；此外，美国ADP就业人数以外 下滑进一步助推12月降息预期，海外市场风险偏好回升。 基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产缓慢，中国铜冶炼小组 (CSPT)联合声明2026年或减产约10%，社会库存低位下探， 内贸现货升水上行，近月盘面C结构收缩。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ⚫ 整体来看 ...

贵金属周报 美联储会议临近，贵金属波动或加剧 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周国际金价在4200美元/盎司一线窄幅震荡，而国际银 价则在上周一再创新高之后回调，上周五再度上攻触及60 美元/盎司的关口。白银价格上周的回调主因投资者获利 了结所致，贵金属价格依然受到降息预期和避险需求的支 撑。铂钯期货在新上市之后，在上周整体呈冲高回落的走 势。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 表 1 上周主要市场贵金属交易数据 注:(1) 成交量、持仓量：手（上期所按照双边计算，COMEX/LME 按照单边计算；LME 为前一日官方数据）； (2) 涨跌= 周五收盘价－上周五收盘价； (3) 涨跌幅=（周五收盘价-上周 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 关注成本风险 期价震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 上周主要期货市场收市数据 注:(1)成交量、持仓量：手； (2)涨跌=周五收盘价－上周五收盘价； 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研 究进一步做好节能降碳工作。会议指出，要切实增强节 能降碳内生动力，充分发挥政策效应，不断完善市场机 制，有效调动全社会的积极性，加快形成绿色生产生活 方式。多地启动重污染天气应急响应。12月7日17时起， 洛阳启动重污染天气橙色(Ⅱ级)预警响应。长沙12月7 日20时启动重污染天气Ⅲ级响应措施。 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 多头氛围浓 铝价较强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，宏观面美国11月ADP创两年半来最大降 幅，显示劳动力市场疲软。11月美国制造业数据萎 缩，凸显企经济挑战，加上美联储潜在领导层变动， 市场对美联储鸽派预期不断升温。同时非美货币强 势，美元持续遭遇抛压，提振金属市场。基本面电解 铝供应端基本稳定，消费端铝价快速大幅冲高限制 部分消费，铝加工周度开工率略有下调0.4%，不过中 长期市场对新能源及储能领域消费依旧预期较好。 周度电解铝库存较上周持稳于59.6万吨，铝棒库存 12.1 ...