Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In terms of fundamentals, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in early April fell short of expectations, with a significant decline in year-on-year growth rate. The sales-to-production ratio of new energy vehicles remained low from January to March, and automakers still faced inventory pressure. Although downstream buyers were more active when lithium prices were low, the terminal consumption increment was limited, and the consumption transmission path was blocked, so the downstream buying enthusiasm lacked strong resilience [4]. - In terms of cost, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite remained stable during the reporting period [4]. - Regarding the later outlook, the demand increment was lower than expected, and the fundamentals lacked support. Although there was a possibility of a rebound from a technical perspective, high inventory still exerted pressure, and lithium prices would continue to fluctuate. Fundamentally, although there was an obvious contraction expectation on the supply side in April, the spot inventory continued to accumulate, the high-frequency consumption growth rate announced by the Passenger Car Association declined, and the sales-to-production ratio under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics remained low, so the demand increment was lower than expected, and the fundamentals lacked support. Technically, the trading volume increased significantly when lithium prices hit the bottom, indicating strong willingness of bulls to buy at the bottom. After lithium prices entered a shrinking and volatile phase, the 5-day moving average was about to cross above the 10-day moving average to form a golden cross, suggesting a possible rebound. Overall, the cost support logic remained, there was a rebound expectation from a technical perspective, but the bearish fundamental pattern continued, which might suppress the rebound, and lithium prices would generally remain volatile [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%) and imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%) remained unchanged, while the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%) decreased by 0.55%. The spot prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price of the lithium carbonate main contract, all increased slightly. The prices of battery-grade coarse-grained lithium hydroxide increased by 1.46%, while the price of fine-grained lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.13%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.62%. The prices of lithium iron phosphate and cobalt acid lithium decreased by 3.21% and 0.94% respectively, while the prices of ternary materials (811 and 622) remained unchanged [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last Week's Market Analysis** - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of April 18, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 29,562 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 72,280 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2507 was 153,000 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of April 18, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,305 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous period. Domestic lithium salt supply had shrunk significantly after the Spring Festival, and lithium salt plants were less willing to increase production at low prices. After the supply structure changed, high-cost salt plants might leave the market temporarily, and domestic supply was unlikely to recover significantly in the short term [8]. - **Imports**: In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 12,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 38.7% and a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Among them, 7,572 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for about 61%, a month-on-month decrease of 15.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 40%. 4,388 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 34.5% and a year-on-year increase of 77.3%. In March, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was about 23,000 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 8% and 37% respectively. Among them, 16,600 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 3% and 38% respectively. Although Chile's shipping volume increased significantly in March, the low level in February would still drag down China's import volume in April. The supply side was still in a contraction phase and might improve in May driven by increased imports [8]. - **Lithium Ore Imports**: In February, about 567,100 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month-on-month decrease of 3.9%. Among them, 232,100 tons were imported from Australia, a month-on-month decrease of 32.0% and a year-on-year increase of 77.1%; 149,500 tons were imported from South Africa, a month-on-month decrease of 48.1%; 97,200 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month-on-month increase of 81.1%; and 46,600 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month-on-month increase of 18.5%. From the high-frequency shipping data, Australia's lithium ore shipping volume increased significantly in March, and about 90,000 tons of lithium ore were shipped to China in the second half of the month. As of April 3, the domestic lithium ore inventory was about 63,000 tons, at an absolute high level [9][10]. - **Demand Side** - **Positive Electrode Materials**: As of April 18, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,846 tons, with an operating rate of 60.98%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 38,318 tons, an increase of 166 tons. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,850 tons, with an operating rate of 45.79%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,755 tons, a decrease of 50 tons. During the reporting period, the prices of positive electrode materials were weak. Although the prices of iron phosphate and lithium were relatively stable and the nickel price increased significantly due to the expected policy disturbance in Indonesia, the prices of ternary positive electrodes still decreased slightly, indicating that the weak demand side dragged down the prices [11]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From April 1 to 13, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 275,000, a year-on-year increase of 15% compared with the same period in April last year and a month-on-month decrease of 17%. The new energy retail penetration rate was 53.3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 2.695 million, a year-on-year increase of 34%. According to the high-frequency data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was weak in early April, and the year-on-year growth rate declined significantly, dragging down the increase in the cumulative annual sales volume. Under the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales-to-production ratio of new energy vehicles from January to March improved slightly, but the improvement in terminal demand was limited, and automakers still faced inventory pressure. The demand transmission path was still relatively blocked. Multiple auto shows across the country will be held in late April, and attention should be paid to the stimulation of potential consumption by new technologies and new models [12]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 96,705 tons, a decrease of about 608 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 29,700 tons, an increase of 230 tons from the previous period, and the market inventory was 67,005 tons, a decrease of 838 tons from the previous period. Overall, the operating rate of downstream material plants increased slightly, the total lithium salt inventory remained low and the margin further narrowed, and the marginal improvement in fundamentals drove the spot inventory to decline. However, it should be noted that the terminal consumption intensity was limited, and the resilience of lithium salt inventory destocking needed to be considered [13]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The demand improvement was lower than expected, and lithium prices would continue to fluctuate. Although there was an obvious contraction expectation on the supply side in April, the spot inventory continued to accumulate, the high-frequency consumption growth rate declined, and the demand increment was lower than expected, so the fundamentals lacked support. Technically, there was a possibility of a rebound, but the high inventory would still suppress it. Overall, lithium prices would generally remain volatile [14]. Industry News - Zhefu Holdings' nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, and the nickel equivalent production in 2024 is about 6,400 tons. The refined cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate projects have basically completed construction and are ready for production [15]. - The fourth-generation lithium iron phosphate project of Bangpu with a total investment of 5.6 billion yuan has started construction. After full production, it can achieve an annual output value of 14.5 billion yuan [15]. - Guocheng Mining's Jinxin Mining has a mining license for 1 million tons/year and is promoting the application for a 5 million tons/year mining license [15]. - Tibet Mining's production targets for 2025 are 100,000 tons of chromite, 5,000 tons of lithium concentrate, 7,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 93,000 tons of potassium chloride [15]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, production, supply structure, imports, and other data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related products [17][19][21]

印尼政策仍有调整空间 警惕回撤风险 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 宏观面，美国关税政策反复摇摆，市场对关税风险的 敏感度有所降温，有色金属整体振幅有所收敛。但镍 价近期主要受印尼税改新规扰动，新税规将大幅抬升 电镍成本，导致镍价表现强于其他有色标的。 ⚫ 基本面：镍价在前期低位时，现货市场库存明显去 库，升贴水大幅走高，下游采买热度较好。而随着印 尼税改落地预期持续发酵，镍价走高后压制升贴水回 落，本期现货端有所降温。成本端FOB价格整体表现 平稳，镍铁价格在不锈钢高库存压力下如期走弱，电 镍排产仍处于绝对高位，前期 ...

2025 年 4 月 21 日 关税政策博弈 铝价震荡 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 ⚫ 上周美国对等关税有所缓和，临近周末特朗普发表 讲话称他"预期将与欧盟达成贸易协议" 但其关 税政策反复无常，导致市场参与者普遍持观望态 度。当下中美关税博弈还在继续，双方与周边国家 东南亚、欧盟的谈判仍在进行中，未来关税政策仍 有反复可能。国内一季度经济数据好于预期，近期 小作文亦频频发出 ...

锌周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 关税博弈阶段 锌价低位震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价反弹受阻。宏观面看，美国与各国展开 贸易谈判，美联储释放鹰派言论，救市期待减弱，市场风 险偏好较弱。抢出口及政策支持下，国内一季度出口及经 济指标超预期。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 基本面看，周度 LME 库存大幅交仓，海外消费担忧升温， 内外锌价承压。国内下游低价采购，社会库存降至 10 万 吨，低库 ...

铅周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 炼厂减产支撑 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 反弹动力不足 核心观点及策略 要点 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价先抑后扬。宏观面看，美国对中国 关税提高至 245%，且美国与各国关税进入谈判阶段， 市场情绪反复，美联储重申通胀担忧，降息救市期望 降温。国内一季度经济表现较好，政策出台对冲贸易 风险预期较强。 基本面看，电池消费淡季，废旧电瓶报废量不足，回 收商惜售， ...

铁矿周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 稳经济政策支撑 铁矿震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：上周高炉复工与检修数量相当，下游钢材采 购平稳，对钢厂开工仍有支撑，铁水产量维持高位水 平。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率83.56%，环比上周增 加0.28个百分点，同比去年增加4.70个百分点，日均 铁水产量 240.12万吨，环比上周减少0.10万吨，同比 去年增加13.90万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：受前期发运影响，上周到港船数增加，到港 量止降转增。上周澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2434.8万 吨，环比增加41.8万吨。库存方面，全国47个港口进 口铁矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 239 to close at 3,975 ringgit/ton, a decline of 5.67%; the palm oil 05 contract fell 166 to close at 8,582 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 14 to close at 7,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%; the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 115 to close at 9,195 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.56 to close at 48.32 cents/pound, an increase of 1.17%; the ICE canola active contract rose 8.3 to close at 676 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 1.24% [3][7]. - The domestic oil market is oscillating. Soybean oil trading volume has increased significantly and shows good resistance to decline. Rapeseed oil still faces supply pressure due to high inventory, but there is an expectation of tightened imports in the medium to long term. Palm oil has weak supply and demand in the domestic market. As the producing areas enter the production - increasing cycle, inventory may enter an accumulation cycle. Facing the impact of tariff policies, the governments of Malaysia and Indonesia may lower export prices, causing the spot quotes in the producing areas to decline and the Malaysian palm oil to continue to weaken. In the short term, US soybean oil is oscillating strongly due to factors such as biodiesel and the rebound of US soybeans. Canadian canola continues to rise this week supported by low inventory and good crushing demand [4][7]. - The impact of tariff policies is gradually being digested by the market. The game among countries may enter a long - cycle process. The US stock market is in an oscillating adjustment process, and the US dollar index is oscillating weakly. With supply concerns and the decline in OPEC+ production - increasing expectations, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, as the producing areas enter the production - increasing period and are affected by tariffs on exports, the producing areas may lower export prices, and spot quotes continue to decline. The import profit of demand countries has improved, and countries such as India have increased their ship purchases, which may limit the decline. Overall, palm oil may oscillate at a low level in the short term. If export demand fails to meet expectations, it may weaken in the medium term [4][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.56 to 48.32 cents/pound, an increase of 1.17%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 239 to 3,975 ringgit/ton, a decline of 5.67%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 166 to 8,582 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 14 to 7,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract fell 115 to 9,195 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 129 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 150 to 9,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.62%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 50 to 8,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 20 to 9,280 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.22% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil market is oscillating. Soybean oil has good anti - decline ability with increased trading volume. Rapeseed oil has supply pressure due to high inventory but may see tightened imports in the long term. Palm oil has weak supply and demand domestically, and the producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle with possible inventory accumulation. The Malaysian and Indonesian governments may lower export prices, causing the Malaysian palm oil to weaken. US soybean oil is oscillating strongly in the short term, and Canadian canola continues to rise [7]. - From April 1 - 15, 2025, in Malaysia, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area increased by 3.34%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.12%, and palm oil production increased by 3.97%. Different shipping survey agencies showed that the export volume of palm oil products from April 1 - 15, 2025, increased compared with the same period last month, with increases ranging from 7.05% to 13.55% [8][9]. - Malaysia will keep the export tax on crude palm oil in May at 10% and lower the reference price. The simplified EUDR may not fully benefit palm oil - producing countries. Indonesian palm oil producers hope the government will cut export tariffs to the US [9]. - As of the week of April 11, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.837 million tons, a decrease of 84,600 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,200 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased by 97,300 tons, palm oil inventory decreased by 2,300 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory increased by 15,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of April 18, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 56,500 tons, compared with 39,580 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 153 tons, compared with 853 tons in the previous week [10]. 3. Industry News - In 2024, Indonesia exported 680,000 tons of palm oil to Russia, an increase of about 13% compared with 2023. The goal is to export 1 million tons in the future, and the exported palm oil is mainly refined [11]. - The US Department of Agriculture's Jakarta commissioner predicts that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025/26 will increase to 47 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared with 2024/25. The export volume is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 24 million tons, and the ending inventory will increase from 4.9 million tons in 2024/25 to 5.29 million tons [11]. - Malaysia is optimistic and plans to adjust its palm oil export strategy to deal with new US tariff measures. The current export tariff to the US is 10% with a 90 - day suspension period. The expected export value to the US this year is 21 billion ringgit, with palm oil products contributing 4.9 billion ringgit [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis differences of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils [14][15][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of alumina prices is limited, and there is a possibility of a subsequent decline under pressure due to the upcoming resumption of previously shut - down production capacity and the planned addition of 1.6 million tons of new alumina capacity at the end of April, which will put significant pressure on the supply side [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From April 10 to April 18, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2790 yuan/ton to 2818 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price dropped from 2911 yuan/ton to 2888 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB increased from 330 dollars/ton to 347.5 dollars/ton; the import loss widened from 108.27 yuan/ton to 299.30 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 9289 tons to 287681 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 8100 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in some regions changed, with the price in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) dropping by 50 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton and in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) dropping by 100 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton, while the prices in Henan and Guangxi remained stable [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 1.26% last week, closing at 2818 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 2888 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Domestic bauxite supply and prices were relatively stable, but future prices may face downward pressure. The production and transportation in Guinea's GIC mining area were restricted, but the impact on import prices was not significant yet. On the supply side, the roasting furnace of an alumina plant in the southwest region completed maintenance, and the operating rate increased slightly. As of April 17, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 82.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 77%. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises had different production adjustment plans, and the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly by 0.5 million tons to 43.81 million tons. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 268 tons to 288,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 8100 tons [4] Market Outlook - The GIC mining area in Guinea was affected by government inspections, but it has not affected the import ore price for now. The supply - side production capacity has both increases and decreases, with the resumption of production in the southwest region and new maintenance plans in Shanxi. The demand for electrolytic aluminum remains rigid, but the spot trading has weakened as alumina prices stabilized and rebounded. Starting next week, the previously shut - down production capacity will gradually resume, which may put pressure on alumina prices. The planned addition of 1.6 million tons of new capacity at the end of April will also increase supply - side pressure [2][6] Industry News - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly due to news from Guinea's GIC mining area, and the impact on ore supply remains to be seen. In March 2025, China imported 16.47 million tons of bauxite and concentrates, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 39.1% year - on - year increase; from January to March, the cumulative import was 47.07 million tons, a 29.9% year - on - year increase. A medium - sized alumina plant in Shanxi plans to overhaul a production line on April 19, affecting about 500,000 tons of production capacity for about 15 days [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, inter - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, cost - profit, and exchange inventory [9][10][12]

豆粕周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 现货供应逐步增多 连粕或震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆5月合约跌8收于1035.75美分/蒲式耳，跌 幅0.77%；豆粕05合约跌55收于2857元/吨，跌幅1.89%； 华南豆粕现货涨120收于3120元/吨，涨幅4%；菜粕05合约 跌103收于2493元/吨，跌幅3.97%；广西菜粕现货跌70收 于2380元/ ...

021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 工业硅周报 成本倒挂加剧，工业硅持续下探 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅继续探底，虽然中美贸易战仍未平息，工业品 市场情绪偏弱，光伏产业供给侧改革对上游原料需求形成 持续性干扰。供应来看，新疆地区开工率回升至79%，川 滇地区开工率依然偏低，企业生产压力加大亏损面持续扩 大，供应端转入收缩；从需求侧来看，多晶硅抢装季节临 近尾声下游后市预期转向悲观，硅片价格竞争激烈成交困 难，光伏电池成本和需求支撑转弱细分市场出现价格分 化，组件市场分布式订单消费转弱头部企业降价倾销部分 销售价格已低至0.7元/瓦，集中式地面电站项目有序开工 但增量低于去年，虽然供应因成本倒挂转向收敛但终端消 费难表现出明显减速迹象，社会库存维持61.2万吨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z001778 ...