1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has declined, and the A - share market has seen a shrinking - volume weak oscillation. In the short - term, the stock market is expected to be weak, while in the long - term, it is cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market oscillated and rebounded, and a wait - and - see approach is still recommended [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Even if there are short - term rebounds due to economic data, the medium - term adjustment trend remains unchanged [4]. - Copper prices are oscillating. Before the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market is cautious. The overseas macro environment is unstable, and the fundamentals show that supply is constrained and consumption is slightly suppressed, so copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to perform well. Overseas supply is affected, and the domestic market follows the upward trend of the overseas market [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak and stagnant at a low level. Supply is in an oversupply state, but there is cost support at the futures end [9][10]. - Zinc prices are experiencing a weak rebound. Overseas squeeze - out support exists, but the domestic high - inventory pressure remains [11][12]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. Transportation control and production adjustment of some refineries support the price in the short - term, but there is downward pressure in the future [13][14][15]. - Tin prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Supply and demand are both weak, and there are few new contradictions [16]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Supply is stable, and demand is mixed. The market is waiting for policies in the polysilicon industry [17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices may see a short - term upward trend driven by bulls, but the upside is not expected to be overly high [19][20]. - Nickel prices may have a technical rebound due to cost support [21]. - For soda ash and glass, the strategy of widening the price difference can be gradually stopped, and the market will be in an oscillating and wait - and - see state later [22]. - Steel prices are under oscillating pressure. Spot trading is stable, but terminal demand is weak [23][24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. Supply is high, and demand is weakening [25]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are weakly oscillating. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [26][27]. - Palm oil prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the lower support range [28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [30] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, and other aspects from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - For nickel, it presents the price changes of SHFE nickel and LME nickel, and related data on warehouse receipts, inventories, and premiums from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - Similar data summaries are provided for zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal, including price changes, warehouse receipt and inventory data, and other relevant information [33][34][35][36][37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have hit a snag, and European countries advocate an "immediate ceasefire" at the current front line. The US government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, and the market is digesting the situation. Domestically, A-shares have risen, but the trading volume is still low. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, it is cost-effective to buy on dips. The bond market has also recovered [2]. - The silver squeeze has ended, and the Sino-US economic and trade relations are showing signs of easing. The precious metal prices are entering an adjustment phase, and the adjustment slope may be steeper, especially for silver [3][4]. - The copper price has slightly declined due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the weakening of market risk aversion. The supply of copper is increasing, while the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The copper price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price is oscillating. The macro - sentiment is stable, and the supply - demand situation is favorable. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [8]. - The alumina price is weakly oscillating. The winter procurement by aluminum plants in the northwest is putting downward pressure on the price. The theoretical loss of northern alumina production capacity is expanding, and the price is expected to have limited further downside [9]. - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The domestic supply is increasing, while the demand is weak. The LME has a low - inventory and strong - structure. The zinc price is expected to stabilize and oscillate narrowly in the short term [10]. - The lead price is oscillating narrowly. The supply in the domestic market is regionally tight, but the import window has opened, and the supply pressure is expected to increase gradually, causing the lead price to decline [11]. - The tin price is oscillating narrowly. The supply improvement of tin ore is limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. - The industrial silicon price is oscillating narrowly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [14][15]. - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is improving marginally. The lithium price may adjust in the short term after the first upward rush is blocked [16][17]. - The nickel price is oscillating. The inventory is increasing, but the price is at the lower end of the range with cost support. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [18][19]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is expected to widen. The soda ash fundamentals are slightly better than those of glass, and both are facing inventory accumulation pressure [20]. - The steel price is under pressure. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate under pressure [21]. - The iron ore price is oscillating weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore price is expected to adjust in an oscillating manner [22][23]. - The soybean meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian rainy season is expected to return in November, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [24]. - The palm oil price is oscillating widely. The production and demand of palm oil in Malaysia are increasing slightly, and the market driving force is limited. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are complicated. The US government shutdown has affected economic data. The market is waiting for the CPI data on the 24th and the APEC Sino - US summit at the end of the month. Domestically, A - shares have risen, the bond market has recovered, and the short - term stock market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The silver squeeze has ended, and the Sino - US economic and trade relations are easing. The precious metal prices have fallen sharply, and the adjustment slope may be steeper, especially for silver [3][4]. 3.3 Copper - The copper price has slightly declined. The market risk aversion has weakened, and the supply is increasing. The copper price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The aluminum price is oscillating. The macro - sentiment is stable, the supply - demand situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [8]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina price is weakly oscillating. The winter procurement by aluminum plants in the northwest is putting downward pressure on the price. The theoretical loss of northern alumina production capacity is expanding, and the price is expected to have limited further downside [9]. 3.6 Zinc - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The domestic supply is increasing, while the demand is weak. The LME has a low - inventory and strong - structure. The zinc price is expected to stabilize and oscillate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.7 Lead - The lead price is oscillating narrowly. The supply in the domestic market is regionally tight, but the import window has opened, and the supply pressure is expected to increase gradually, causing the lead price to decline [11]. 3.8 Tin - The tin price is oscillating narrowly. The supply improvement of tin ore is limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is oscillating narrowly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [14][15]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is improving marginally. The lithium price may adjust in the short term after the first upward rush is blocked [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - The nickel price is oscillating. The inventory is increasing, but the price is at the lower end of the range with cost support. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [18][19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The price difference between soda ash and glass is expected to widen. The soda ash fundamentals are slightly better than those of glass, and both are facing inventory accumulation pressure [20]. 3.13 Steel - The steel price is under pressure. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate under pressure [21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The iron ore price is oscillating weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore price is expected to adjust in an oscillating manner [22][23]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian rainy season is expected to return in November, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The palm oil price is oscillating widely. The production and demand of palm oil in Malaysia are increasing slightly, and the market driving force is limited. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has recovered, while A-shares have continued to shrink in volume. The US government shutdown may end this week, and the market's concerns about the fiscal deadlock have eased. The US stock market has risen, and the price of gold has increased by over 2%. In China, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, laying a foundation for achieving the annual target. The A-share market has closed higher with shrinking volume, and the style has significantly shifted to dividend value. [2][3] - The price of precious metals has reached a new high, driven by the strong expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continuous hedging demand. The silver squeeze may end. The price of copper has rebounded due to China's stable economic growth. The price of aluminum has fluctuated due to stable macro and fundamental factors. The price of alumina has shown a weak oscillation due to the interaction between supply pressure and cost support. The price of zinc has slightly shifted upward due to the easing of trade tensions. The price of lead has oscillated at a high level due to tight regional supply. The price of tin has consolidated at a high level due to weak supply and demand. The price of industrial silicon has oscillated as demand awaits recovery. The price of lithium carbonate has oscillated due to the interweaving of long and short factors. The price of nickel has oscillated strongly due to the warm macro expectation. The prices of soda ash and glass have faced pressure due to the weakening of fundamentals. The price of steel has oscillated under pressure due to weak terminal data. The price of iron ore has oscillated weakly due to reduced arrivals and shipments. The price of soybean meal has oscillated weakly due to the progress of Brazilian soybean sowing and sufficient domestic supply. The price of palm oil has oscillated widely due to the narrowing increase in export demand. [4][6][8][9][10][12][15][16][18][20][23][24][25][26][29] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - This section presents the closing data of major futures markets for various metals, including copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, covering information such as closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and positions. [31] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - This part provides detailed industrial data for multiple metals, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals, such as contract prices, inventory changes, spot premiums and discounts, and price ratios between domestic and international markets. [32][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core View - Last week, copper prices stopped falling and stabilized. The main reasons were that China and the US were expected to restart a new round of negotiations, leading to a rise in market risk appetite. The dovish officials of the Federal Reserve still actively predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year. China's export growth rate rebounded in September, and stronger fiscal policies would support foreign trade and employment. Fundamentally, the supply growth rate of the mining end this year was less than 1%, and the output growth of the global smelting end was very limited. The domestic consumption was slightly worse than expected, but the tight - balance pattern remained. With the slowdown of macro - disturbances and the strong support of the cost end, it was expected that the copper prices would turn to a volatile upward trend in the short term [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From October 10th to October 17th, LME copper rose from $10,374/ton to $10,607/ton, an increase of 2.25%; COMEX copper rose from 484.5 cents/pound to 499.75 cents/pound, an increase of 3.15%; SHFE copper fell from 85,910 yuan/ton to 84,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%; international copper remained unchanged at 73,880 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 7.96. The LME spot premium/discount changed from -$31.19/ton to -$16.83/ton, a change of -46.04%, and the Shanghai spot premium/discount increased from 20 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of inventory, as of October 17th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 692,528 tons, a total increase of 2.35%. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons (-1.56%), COMEX inventory increased by 6,056 short tons (1.78%), SHFE inventory increased by 550 tons (0.50%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 11,500 tons (13.07%) [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price trend reasons**: The copper prices fluctuated in a range last week. The US government shutdown led to the postponement of important economic data, which might make the Fed's future policy path lose guidance. The market had fully priced in a small interest rate cut in October. China and the US agreed to conduct a new round of consultations as soon as possible. China's export growth rate rebounded, and the policy tone of stable growth and anti - involution was clear, which would boost the macro - expectation. Fundamentally, after the serious accident in Indonesia's Grasberg, the output in the fourth quarter was significantly reduced, the interference rate of major global mines continued to rise, the inventory in non - US regions was low, the domestic refined copper output declined, and the near - month futures market maintained a flat - water structure [2][7]. - **Macro - aspect**: China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fed's dovish officials advocated interest rate cuts. The latest Fed's Beige Book showed that the Trump administration's tariff increase was pushing up inflation, and important economic data were missing during the government shutdown. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2% but emphasized that the US tariff increase and trade protectionism were dragging down the growth. China's export in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the export of high - tech products and green products showed good growth [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: After the accident in Indonesia's Grasberg, the output in the fourth quarter was significantly reduced, and some mines such as Panama's copper mine and TECK also had production problems. It was expected that the third - quarter reports of mainstream mining enterprises would continue to lower the production guidance. In terms of refined copper, due to the shortage of raw materials, the domestic smelting output was expected to decline slightly from October to November. The domestic consumption was slightly worse than expected, but the tight - balance pattern remained [9]. Industry News - Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco proposed to sell copper to its European customers at a record - high premium of $325/ton next year, a 39% increase from this year. European largest copper smelting company Aurubis would also charge a record - high premium of $315/ton for refined copper from its European customers next year, due to concerns about copper supply shortage next year [11]. - Rio Tinto's copper production in the third quarter of 2025 was 204,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11%. The copper production of its Kennecott project in the US decreased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter due to engineering restrictions and maintenance. The copper production of its Escondida copper mine in Chile increased year - on - year, with the concentrate output increasing slightly and the refined copper output increasing mainly due to the release of project capacity. The copper production of its OT copper mine in Mongolia increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, setting a new record high [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [14][17][21].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued to perform strongly, with both gold and silver prices hitting new highs. On Friday, prices fluctuated significantly during the day session, reached new highs, and then corrected during the night session, ending the five - day consecutive increase in gold prices [2][5]. - The U.S. government has been shut down for over half a month, and many U.S. economic data releases have been suspended. The Republicans' temporary appropriation bill has been rejected for the 11th time. There are different views among Fed officials on the pace of interest rate cuts [5]. - Recent Sino - U.S. trade frictions have escalated again. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expects to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng before the APEC summit. If the negotiation progresses smoothly, both sides may make compromises to ease the current trade relations [2][6]. - The recent short - squeeze in the London silver spot market has pushed the silver price to a record high. However, the one - month lease rate of London silver spot futures has dropped from a high of 35% to around 20%, indicating that the shortage of London silver spot has eased [2][6]. - Many exchanges and banks have issued risk warnings due to the continuous and significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices. Although the long - term view on precious metal prices remains positive, the risk of short - term price adjustments for gold and silver has increased [2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 999.80 yuan/gram, up 98.24 yuan or 10.90%; SHFE silver closed at 12,249 yuan/kilogram, up 1,167 yuan or 10.53%. Other major precious metal contracts also showed varying degrees of price increases and volume changes [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices were strong last week, with gold and silver hitting new highs. The U.S. government shutdown and differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts affect the market. Sino - U.S. trade relations and the easing of the silver short - squeeze situation are also important factors [5][6]. 3. Important Data Information - The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast, and 3.1% in 2026. It has slightly raised the economic growth forecasts for the U.S. in the next two years and maintained China's growth forecast at 4.8% for this year [10]. - Economists surveyed by NABE have raised the growth forecasts for the U.S. economy in the next two years but expect weak employment growth. They predict that the U.S. GDP will grow by 1.8% this year, up from the 1.3% forecast in June [10]. - ECB President Lagarde cannot declare the end of the interest rate cut cycle. The Fed's economic beige book shows that economic activity has changed little recently, with a slight decline in consumer spending and stable employment levels [10]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings reached 1,047.21 tons on October 17, 2025, an increase of 30.05 tons from the previous week; ishare silver holdings were 15,497.40 tons, an increase of 53.64 tons from the previous week [11]. - The report also provides data on CFTC non - commercial positions in gold and silver futures, as well as various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and correlations of precious metals with other factors such as the U.S. dollar, inflation, and oil prices [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead ore and scrap batteries remains tight, providing good bottom support at the cost end. However, from mid - to late October, some electrolytic lead and secondary lead smelters will resume production, and there is an expectation of imported crude lead arriving, so the supply will increase marginally. On the demand side, the peak season for battery replacement in electric bicycles is coming to an end, and battery exports are still affected by tariffs and anti - dumping policies, so consumption is relatively flat. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Points - Macroscopically, there is still uncertainty in Sino - US trade friction, the market pays attention to its subsequent development, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October remains high, the US dollar continues to be weak, which supports metal prices. Fundamentally, the supply of lead ore and scrap batteries is tight, providing cost support. The supply will increase marginally as some smelters resume production and there is an expectation of imported crude lead. The demand is flat as the peak season for electric bicycle battery replacement is ending and battery exports are restricted. It is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5]. 3.2 Trading Data - From October 10th to 17th, SHFE lead dropped from 17,140 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; LME lead dropped from 2,014.5 dollars/ton to 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.51 to 8.66. The inventory of SHFE increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 13,400 tons to 250,400 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 215 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 adjusted slightly at a high level, closing at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.38%. LME lead continued to fall from a high level, closing at 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.13%. In the spot market, there is obvious regional supply tightness. Some holders are reluctant to sell at low prices or raise prices. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and some are waiting and watching. In terms of inventory, LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly, and it is expected that the social inventory will not increase significantly [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - From October 11th - 17th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 110 dollars/dry ton, both remaining flat compared to the previous period. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short lead in the next year was 6.8%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global lead ore supply will increase by 0.7% to 457,000 tons in 2025 and by 2.2% to 467,000 tons in 2026; the global refined lead demand will increase by 1.8% to 1.325 million tons in 2025 and by 0.9% to 1.337 million tons in 2026. The global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 tons in 2025 and 102,000 tons in 2026 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 to close at 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 20 to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to 2450 yuan per ton, a 1.61% decrease [4]. - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher, mainly due to the unexpectedly high crushing data released by NOPA, which boosted the price through demand. However, data on exports and harvest progress remained suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened, mainly because domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were at a high level compared to the same period, with sufficient supply. The expected easing of China - Canada trade relations and bearish sentiment exerted pressure. Additionally, the sowing in Brazil was progressing smoothly, the early - stage crops were growing well, and Argentina was about to start sowing with good soil moisture [4]. - The initial sowing work in Brazil was going smoothly. Precipitation in the central - western producing areas (such as Mato Grosso) was low in late October, which required continuous attention. China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations were about to take place in Malaysia, and trade sentiment cooled. Attention was paid to the high - level meeting during the APEC at the end of the month. The Canadian Foreign Minister visited China, and the China - Canada trade relations eased. The import of Canadian rapeseed might resume, and the market sentiment was bearish. Domestic soybean inventories were high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. It was expected that the continuous soybean meal would fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 cents per bushel to 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 2 dollars per ton to 481 dollars per ton, a 0.42% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans fell 2 dollars per ton to 454 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market fell 50.85 yuan per ton to - 177.89 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 yuan per ton to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 yuan per ton to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference rose 31 yuan per ton to 562 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China fell 30 yuan per ton to 2890 yuan per ton, a 1.03% decrease; the spot price in South China fell 20 yuan per ton to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the spot - futures price difference in South China rose 34 yuan per ton to 32 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher due to the unexpectedly high NOPA crushing data, but export and harvest progress data were suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened because of sufficient supply, expected easing of China - Canada trade relations, and smooth sowing in Brazil [7]. - The U.S. government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were suspended. The current harvest progress was estimated to be 70% - 80%. China had not purchased U.S. soybeans, and export demand was weak. The market expected a slight decrease in the October report's yield per acre to 53.2 bushels per acre [8]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel; the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 284.83 dollars per short - ton; the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 50.84 cents per pound; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 9.90 dollars per bushel [8]. - NOPA's monthly report showed that member companies crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans in September, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. As of September 30, the member companies' soybean oil inventory dropped to a nine - month low of 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 11.1%. Conab estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 177.6386 million tons, a 3.6% increase year - on - year, and the export volume would increase to 112.11 million tons. As of the week of October 10, 2025, domestic major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, and national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 147,300 tons, the average daily pick - up volume was 187,420 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 7.93 days [11]. Industry News - As of October 10, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, had reached 21.22% of the expected total planting area [12]. - As of the week of October 5, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased 8.7% to 80,500 tons. From August 1 to October 5, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 796,100 tons, a 59.2% decrease from the same period last year. As of October 5, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.274 million tons [12]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate had reached 14%, the third - fastest in the same period [12]. - Brazil exported 2,166,031.56 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 270,753.94 tons, a 26% increase from the average daily export volume in October last year [13]. - Canada exported 477,254 tons of rapeseed, 281,360 tons of rapeseed oil, and 446,993 tons of rapeseed meal in August 2025 [13]. - From January to July this year, the U.S. exported only 5.9 million tons of soybeans to China. Since May, China has stopped buying U.S. soybeans. A U.S. market research company predicted that if China did not return to the U.S. market by mid - November, the U.S. might lose 14 - 16 million tons of soybean orders to China [13]. - Last week, soybean planting in Brazil slowed down due to insufficient rainfall. Safras & Mercado estimated the national planting rate to be about 11.2%. In Paraná, the planting rate was about 38%, and in Mato Grosso, about 20% of the area had been planted [14]. - As of the week of October 14, about 39% of the U.S. soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was expected to be 18 million hectares, and the production was expected to be 51.1 million tons. The estimated 2025/26 planting area was 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the domestic oil and fat sector oscillated and declined, mainly dragged down by the drop in international oil prices. Palm oil showed a wide - range oscillation. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil both increased in the first half of October, with expected subsequent production slowdown and inventory reduction. Indonesia plans to raise export taxes to support the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026, which provides support for prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a restart of Canadian rapeseed imports, making rapeseed oil relatively weak. The continuous shutdown of the US government has suspended data reports, causing a lack of market guidance, but the higher - than - expected soybean crushing demand released by NOPA has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Overall, palm oil is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5][9][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract rose 1.13 to 51.1 cents per pound, an increase of 2.26%. BMD Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract fell 72 to 4,474 ringgit per ton, a decrease of 1.58%. DCE palm oil contract 01 fell 130 to 9,308 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.38%. DCE soybean oil contract 01 fell 46 to 8,256 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.55%. CZCE rapeseed oil contract 01 fell 200 to 9,861 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.99%. ICE rapeseed active contract rose 7.6 to 631 Canadian dollars per ton, an increase of 1.22% [5][6][8]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong dropped 210 to 9,250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao dropped 10 to 8,520 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu dropped 210 to 10,120 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.03% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and demand data: From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate by 0.21% month - on - month, and production by 6.86% month - on - month. The export volume data from different institutions showed increases ranging from 12.3% to 49.8% compared with the same period last month [10]. - Policy and inventory: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November to 4,262.23 ringgit per ton (1,008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 238.17 million tons, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory decreasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [11][12][15]. - Consumption data: In India, palm oil imports in September dropped 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest since May, while soybean oil imports surged 36.8% to 503,240 tons, the highest since July 2022, and sunflower oil imports increased by about 6% to 272,386 tons, the highest since January [12]. - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 11,800 tons, and that of palm oil was 847 tons [13]. Industry News - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months, reaching about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year, due to seasonal production decline and increased demand during festivals [14]. - Due to increased production and more working days in October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month to 2.4 million tons. Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandate in mid - 2026 and the seasonal low - production period from November to February may keep palm oil prices between 4,000 and 4,500 ringgit per ton. Analysts have raised the price forecast for Malaysian palm oil in 2025 by 130 ringgit to 4,330 ringgit per ton and in 2026 by 100 ringgit to 4,200 ringgit per ton [14][15]. - Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel, and the tax - increase plan is still under discussion among ministries [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major domestic oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the inventory trends of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory trends of domestic three major oils [17][18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the supply side saw a week - on - week decline in overseas shipments last week and an increase in arrivals, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with shipments expected to decline this week. The demand side had a slight drop in blast furnace operation and a decrease in daily hot metal production, which still remained above 2.4 million tons. Steel mill inventories decreased while port inventories increased. As the hot metal production on the demand side will gradually peak and the first batch of iron ore from the Simandou project on the supply side is about to be shipped, the supply - demand relationship will weaken, and iron ore prices are expected to run weakly [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3037 | - 66 | - 2.13 | 6235970 | 2668939 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3204 | - 81 | - 2.47 | 2721017 | 1479995 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | - 24.0 | - 3.02 | 1845337 | 535578 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1179.0 | 18.0 | 1.55 | 5827491 | 854021 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1676.0 | 9.5 | 0.57 | 115664 | 50896 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mill hot metal production continued to increase, with the daily average hot metal rising above 2.42 million tons. Steel mills actively replenished their inventories before the festival, and their inventories reached a high level in the same period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, flat compared with last week and 2.59 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average hot metal production was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared with last week and an increase of 6.59 tons compared with last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 2.34 percentage points compared with last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared with last week and a decrease of 19.05 percentage points compared with last year [1][4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week while arrivals increased, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, and shipments are expected to decline this week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons compared with last week. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2731.0 tons, a decrease of 94.9 tons compared with last week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14961.87 tons, an increase of 320.79 tons compared with last week; the daily average port clearance volume was 329.32 tons, a decrease of 12.22 tons [1][5]. Industry News - China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and will levy a special port fee on US - related ships starting from October 14 [10]. - Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation, emphasizing the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [10]. - Rio Tinto's Simandou project started loading the first batch of iron ore in the mine in October 2025 and transporting it to the port by rail. The first batch of iron ore is expected to be shipped around November, and the entire system commissioning is expected to last for several months, with a planned full - load operation of 60 million tons per year in 30 months [10]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23 [10]. - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce economic data such as the housing sales price report of 70 large and medium - sized cities in September and the economic performance in the third quarter on October 20. The central bank will announce the LPR quotation for October on the 20th, and the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the price changes of important production materials in the circulation field on the 24th [10]. - On October 18, He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures moved down and then fluctuated horizontally. Overseas macro events such as Sino - US trade friction, interest - rate cut expectations, government shutdown, and US bank credit crisis are uncertain, and domestic macro data is mixed. After the holiday, inventory accumulation is high, consumption improvement is limited, and supply is gradually recovering, leading to a weakening of supply - demand balance. The focus is on zinc ingot exports. If there is a certain volume of exports, it will improve the domestic oversupply expectation. In the short term, the macro direction is unclear, and fundamental support is insufficient, so zinc prices are expected to remain under pressure [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From October 10th to October 17th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,270 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price dropped from 2984.5 dollars/ton to 2942.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 42 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.46 to 7.41; the SHFE inventory increased by 2677 tons to 109,627 tons; the LME inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; the social inventory decreased by 1.32 million tons to 10.37 million tons; the spot premium increased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main ZN2512 contract of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated downward and then consolidated horizontally. The LME0 - 3BACK structure expanded, and part of the inventory became visible. After the LME inventory increased slightly, the zinc price stabilized. The final weekly decline was 2.11%, closing at 21,830 yuan/ton. London zinc hit the bottom and rebounded, with a weekly decline of 1.41%, closing at 2942.5 dollars/ton. In the spot market, the supply of goods in circulation was limited, and the spot maintained a small premium. Downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and actual transactions were mainly among traders [6][7]. 3. Industry News - From October 10th to 17th, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3400 yuan/ton, and the average imported ore processing fee increased by 0.25 dollars/dry ton to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short zinc in the next year reached 29.7%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global refined zinc production will increase by 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025 and by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons in 2026, while the demand will increase by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will expand from 85,000 tons in 2025 to 271,000 tons in 2026 [13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and London zinc, the internal - external price ratio, inventory, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates, reflecting the historical data and trends of these indicators [16][20][21].