投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250530 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税暂时恢复，六月市场风险将加剧 海外方面，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，要求政府于 6 月 9 日前回 应；白宫官员对诉讼前景信心十足，即便败诉亦有替代路径，并称关税谈判同步推进中；特 朗普上任后首次会晤鲍威尔，施压降息未果，鲍威尔坚持政策独立性。美国一季度 GDP 增 速小幅上修至-0.2%，而初请失业金人数显示就业市场有所走弱。美国 Q2 经济基本面韧劲 尚在，但六月市场波动将加剧，聚焦关税的外部谈判与内部法律博弈、美债可持续性引发的 财政担忧，以及特朗普减税法案在参议院的推进。 国内方面，在美国贸易法庭叫停特朗普关税下，国内风险资产反弹，北证 50、科创板 块、小微盘涨幅超 2%，软件、生物科技板块领涨，两市成交额回升至 1.2 万亿，而债市承 压回调，10Y、30Y 国债利率升至 1.68%、1.93%。短期内国内经济基本面延续平稳，边际变 化不大，市场关注重心仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Federal Court's block of Trump's tariff policy has temporarily alleviated market concerns about a "full - scale trade war," leading to a significant repair of market risk appetite. However, Trump may still restart protectionist policies, so policy risks need to be monitored [2]. - The domestic economy continues to show the characteristic of "volume up, price down" after the weakening of the policy pulse effect at the beginning of the year. Although export pressure has eased, domestic demand repair is weak, and the next policy observation window will be at the end of July [2]. - Various commodities have different trends. Precious metals are under pressure due to the decline in risk - aversion demand; copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate; zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly; lead prices have limited downward space; tin prices may be weakly adjusted; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices may correct the price difference; nickel prices are weakly adjusted; crude oil prices oscillate; steel and iron ore prices are weakly adjusted; and agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil also show different trends [3][6][8][12][13][14][16][18][21][22][23][24][25][26] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.04%; LME copper closed at 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars or 0.31% [27]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.27%; LME aluminum closed at 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars or 0.72% [27]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 0.89% [27]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%; LME zinc closed at 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars or 0.74% [27]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.71%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar or 0.03% [27]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan or 1.93%; LME nickel closed at 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars or 1.85% [27]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,690 yuan or 2.91%; LME tin closed at 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars or 2.82% [27]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3,312.40 dollars/ounce, up 12.70 dollars or 0.38%; SHFE silver closed at 8,225.00 yuan/kg, up 8.00 yuan or 0.10%; COMEX silver closed at 33.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.29 dollars or 0.87% [27]. - **Steel Products**: SHFE rebar closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.54%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% [27]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [27]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On May 28, SHFE copper's main contract was 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; LME copper's 3 - month contract was 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons to 154,300 tons [28]. - **Nickel**: On May 28, SHFE nickel's main contract was 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel's 3 - month contract was 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars. LME inventory increased by 864 tons to 200,862 tons [28]. - **Zinc**: On May 28, SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME zinc was 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 143,450 tons [31]. - **Lead**: On May 28, SHFE lead's main contract was 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME lead was 1,989 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons to 291,050 tons [31]. - **Aluminum**: On May 28, SHFE aluminum's continuous - three contract was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; LME aluminum's 3 - month contract was 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 377,325 tons [31]. - **Alumina**: On May 28, SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,289 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [31]. - **Tin**: On May 28, SHFE tin's main contract was 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,790 yuan from the previous day; LME tin was 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars. LME inventory increased by 20 tons to 2,680 tons [31]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices were mostly unchanged on May 28. COMEX gold's inventory remained unchanged at 38,814,647 ounces, and COMEX silver's inventory increased by 1,070,427 ounces to 498,373,208 ounces [31][33]. - **Steel Products and Iron Ore**: Rebar's main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; iron ore's main contract was 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Other related prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [33]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's main contract was 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan from the previous day; coking coal's main contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan [33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On May 28, lithium carbonate's main contract was 6.05 yuan, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day; the electric - carbon spot price was 6.3 yuan, down 0.08 yuan [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On May 28, industrial silicon's main contract was 7,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the average price of 421 silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [33]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: On May 28, CBOT soybean's main contract was 1048.5 yuan/ton, down 13.25 yuan from the previous day; the main contract of soybean meal was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [33][35].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The US "soft data" has significantly recovered, with the May consumer confidence index and Dallas Fed business activity index exceeding expectations. Market risk appetite has been boosted, leading to a strong rebound in US stocks, a rise in the US dollar index, and a decline in gold, copper, and oil prices. In China, industrial enterprise profits have shown a weak recovery, and the A-share market has been volatile and differentiated [2][3]. - Precious metal prices are under pressure due to the easing of the US - EU trade war and the return of market risk appetite. Gold and silver futures closed lower on Tuesday [4]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, while disruptions in overseas mines and low domestic inventories provide support [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Low inventory provides support, but the expectation of the consumption off - season exerts pressure. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate with both support and pressure. The reduction of imported bauxite in Guinea provides bottom - price support, while the resumption of production in domestic southern enterprises limits the upside [9][10]. - Zinc prices are expected to return to low - level oscillation. The market has digested the news of extended maintenance in South China, and supply is expected to recover [11]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillation. Tight lead ore supply and cost support limit the adjustment space, but weak consumption lacks a strong rebound driver [12]. - Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the market is waiting for more driving factors [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to decline. Supply is tightening, but demand is weak, and social inventory has decreased slightly due to reduced production [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing a large - scale position - changing. Short - term long - short competition may intensify. Attention can be paid to the effectiveness of the bottom signal of the 09 contract [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Although macro - economic data is better than expected, weak demand drags down prices [19][20]. - Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. OPEC + is expected to maintain significant production increases in July, and the US - Iran negotiation has eased contradictions [21]. - Steel prices are expected to run weakly. Spot trading volume has increased slightly, but demand is weak, and the market sentiment is poor [22]. - Iron ore prices are expected to run weakly. Supply pressure is emerging, and demand is weakening as the steel market enters the off - season [23][24]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean sowing progress is slightly lower than expected, and Brazilian exports are normal. Rapeseed meal prices are supported by tight supply [25][26]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate. There is no clear driving factor, and the market is waiting for new information [27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 77,900 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; LME copper closed at 9,596 dollars/ton, down 0.19% [28]. - SHFE aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.57%; LME aluminum closed at 2,483 dollars/ton, up 0.69% [28]. - SHFE zinc closed at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; LME zinc closed at 2,709 dollars/ton, down 0.13% [28]. - SHFE lead closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, down 0.28% [28]. - SHFE nickel closed at 122,310 yuan/ton, down 0.38%; LME nickel closed at 15,380 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [28]. - SHFE tin closed at 264,050 yuan/ton, down 0.21%; LME tin data was not available [28]. - COMEX gold closed at 3,327.40 dollars/ounce, down 0.90%; SHFE silver closed at 8,217.00 yuan/kg, down 0.76%; COMEX silver closed at 33.39 dollars/ounce, down 0.76% [28]. - SHFE rebar closed at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [28]. - DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [28]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper主力 was at 77,900 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; LME copper 3 - month was at 9,596 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,575 tons to 162,150 tons [29]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel主力 was at 122,310 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; LME nickel 3 - month was at 15,380 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 199,998 tons [29]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc主力 was at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; LME zinc was at 2,709 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 151,150 tons [30]. - For lead, SHFE lead主力 was at 16,825 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; LME lead was at 1,988.5 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 292,375 tons [30]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum连三 was at 19,925 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; LME aluminum 3 - month was at 2,483 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 381,575 tons [30]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina主力 was at 3,018 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,275 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [30]. - For tin, SHFE tin主力 was at 264,050 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; LME tin data was not available. LME inventory decreased by 2,665 tons to 0 tons [30]. - For precious metals, there were no significant changes in SHFE gold and silver prices on May 27 compared to the previous day. COMEX gold and silver inventories had some changes [31][34]. - For steel products, the rebar主力 was at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the iron ore主力 was at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [34]. - For lithium carbonate, relevant price data on May 27 was not fully available [34]. - For industrial silicon, the industrial silicon主力 was at 7,610 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan [34]. - For beans and rapeseeds, CBOT soybean主力 was at 1,061.75 cents/bushel; the bean粕主力 was at 2,966 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the菜粕主力 was at 2,599 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [34][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upstream lithium salt supply continues to shrink, but the overall scale is small, and port resources are still abundant, so there is no immediate concern on the supply side. The market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, but the actual implementation is uncertain, and the market has not fully priced in the incremental demand expectations. The spot market remains sluggish, with poor downstream stocking willingness and only meeting rigid procurement needs [4]. - During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber both declined to varying degrees [4]. - On May 20, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to severely rectify vicious involution and achieve healthy industrial competition. On May 21, affected by price declines, there were reports of production suspension and maintenance at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. Additionally, the market was worried about the impact of environmental protection incidents in Jiangxi on supply. Under these events, lithium prices rebounded after hitting a low on May 20 due to a large number of short - position profit - taking. However, as concerns eased, most of the previous gains were reversed on Friday [4]. - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), battery - grade lithium carbonate spot, industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot, lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine - grained), lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary material (811), and ternary material (622) all declined to varying degrees, with the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropping by 100%. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.35% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 35,773 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2507 was 318,500 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 23, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 15,048 tons, a decrease of 805 tons from the previous period. Affected by weak prices, there were reports of production cuts at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. A smelter under Zhongkuang will start a 4 - month production suspension and maintenance in June, affecting a monthly output of about 1,500 tons. Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. said that the 40,000 - ton salt lake lithium project put into production this year may achieve an actual output of 3,000 tons within the year, and it is likely to be put into production in the fourth quarter. Overall, although there are more definite production suspension information, the scale is limited. Supported by high imports and abundant lithium ore, there is no immediate concern on the supply side [8]. - In terms of imports, in April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The import volume from Chile was 20,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%. The import volume from Argentina was 6,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. Chile's lithium carbonate export volume in April was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. The export volume to China was 15,500 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. The scale of lithium carbonate exported to China has weakened, which may drag down the import volume in May. The scale of lithium salt imported from Argentina has increased significantly, but the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it currently has no continuous reference value. In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The import volume from Australia was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The incremental volume mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Although the shipping of lithium ore from a mining company in Mali, Africa, was blocked, the overall shipping scale of African lithium ore is still on the rise [9][10]. - On the demand side, in the downstream cathode materials sector, as of May 23, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,275 tons, with an operating rate of 57.3%, unchanged from the previous period, and inventory decreased by 587 tons. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,820 tons, with an operating rate of 46.19%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory increased by 90 tons. The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, and the prices of lithium iron phosphate also decreased. The market expects a slight expansion of cathode plant production scheduling in June, but the terminal consumption is about to enter the off - season, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation can be realized [11]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, from May 1 - 18, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 484,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month - on - month increase of 15%. The retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 52%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 3.808 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales of new energy vehicles showed a weakening trend in early May, and the year - on - year sales growth rate decreased from 37% in April to 32%. Although the International Energy Agency predicts that new energy vehicle consumption is expected to exceed 20 million units this year, accounting for about 25% of the total new car sales, with high hopes for China's consumption growth, the purchasing power of Chinese residents may be lower than expected. With the arrival of the consumption off - season in the third quarter and the base effect of last year's replacement policy, the future consumption growth rate is not optimistic [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 23, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,391 tons, an increase of about 318 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons, and market inventory increased by 560 tons. Overall, inventory continued to accumulate despite the further contraction of supply, and the scale of resource transfer from upstream to downstream was limited [14]. This Week's Outlook - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [15]. Industry News - On May 22, Rio Tinto was confirmed as the preferred partner for the Salares Altoandinos lithium project in northern Chile by the Chilean National Mining Company (ENAMI). Rio Tinto will acquire an initial 51% stake in the project, and the Chilean National Mining Company will hold the remaining stake. Rio Tinto will provide about $425 million in cash and non - cash contributions, including its direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology [16]. - On May 20, Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated on the investor interaction platform that its new 40,000 - ton lithium salt project will produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year, and the company will strive to further increase production [16]. - On May 21, the Zhangye Municipal People's Government promoted the investment attraction of a metal lithium project in Zhangye Economic Development Zone. The project is expected to invest 560 million yuan, and the estimated annual output value after completion is 300 million yuan. The project is currently in the planning and preparation stage [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [18][20][23][27][29]

棕榈油周报 2025 年 5 月 26 日 增库周期过程 棕榈油延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨13收于3825元/吨，涨幅0.34%； 棕榈油09合约涨22收于8006元/吨，涨幅0.28%；豆油09合 约涨20收于7774元/吨，涨幅0.26%；菜油09合约涨114收 于9391元/吨，涨幅1.23%；CBOT美豆油主连涨0.3收于 49.22美分/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated and declined. The macro - situation is complex, with the suspension of Sino - US tariffs, the recovery of US PMI in May, and a stable employment market, but the US Treasury market turmoil continues and Trump's tariff policy affects market risk appetite. In China, economic indicators in April weakened. Fundamentally, global zinc ore supply recovery remains on track, refinery profits are being repaired, and the zinc ingot import window has closed. However, domestic refined zinc supply is expected to increase, and demand shows mixed performance. Overall, due to the fragility of market risk appetite, weak domestic economic drive, and the expectation of looser supply, zinc prices are expected to remain volatile and weak [3][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,500 yuan/ton to 22,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,686 dollars/ton to 2,712.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.38 to 8.19. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 2,278 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 10,700 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.59 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 250 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc changed to ZN2507, with the price rising first and then falling, closing at 22,215 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. LME zinc fluctuated around 2,700 dollars/ton, closing at 2,712.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.99%. In the spot market, the supply was not significantly loose, and the spot premium was relatively stable. In terms of inventory, as of May 23rd, LME zinc inventory decreased by 11,675 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,278 tons, and as of May 22nd, social inventory decreased by 0.59 million tons. In the macro - aspect, the US May PMI improved, and Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9th. In China, economic indicators in April weakened [6][7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 23rd, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates remained unchanged. Canada's Ivanhoe Mines suspended the underground mining of Kakula copper mine due to earthquakes. In April 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 494,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.6% and a year - on - year increase of 72.07%. The import of refined zinc was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. The export of galvanized sheets was 1.2901 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.32%, and the export of alloys was 1,281.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 472.07%. Russia's Kyzyl - Tashtyg zinc mine will continue to operate [13] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums and discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream enterprise operating rates [15][18][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. The new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. The housing completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [1][4][10]. - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the output of rebar was 2.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, the apparent demand was 2.47 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons, the social inventory was 4.16 million tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons, and the total inventory was 6.04 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.06 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the factory inventory was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, the social inventory was 2.63 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the total inventory was 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3.13 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons [1][5]. - Overall, the industrial data last week was poor. The overall steel production increased, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline. The real estate continued its weak trend, infrastructure investment was stable but not strong, terminal data was poor. Coupled with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot - rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | - 36 | - 1.17 | 6951630 | 2902476 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3189 | - 37 | - 1.15 | 2170566 | 1353196 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 718.0 | - 10.0 | - 1.37 | 1542621 | 756347 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 801.5 | - 51.0 | - 5.98 | 2192852 | 568597 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1383.0 | - 62.5 | - 4.32 | 110769 | 56994 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The real estate investment at the terminal was weak, industrial data was poor, and the expectation of weak consumption increased, leading to a decline in both futures and spot prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 10) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3180 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3260 (- 30) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, presided over a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth of the financial aggregate. It also emphasized increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption boosting, private small and micro - enterprises, and stable foreign trade, making full use of existing and incremental policies, strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy, and maintaining a fair market competition order [6][7]. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, the rebar basis trend, the hot - rolled coil basis trend, the rebar spot regional price difference trend, the hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, the smelting profit of long - process steel mills, the profit of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation is mixed. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and there are concerns about US debt expansion. However, the good performance of the US manufacturing PMI provides support for metals. The Fed may release a dovish signal if interest rates rise rapidly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with mainly capacity replacement in Shandong and Xinjiang. The consumption of aluminum has a seasonal off - peak expectation, but the weakening speed is expected to be slow. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum 3 - month decreased by 18.5 yuan/ton from 2484.5 on May 16th to 2466 on May 23rd. SHFE aluminum continuous three increased by 35.0 dollars/ton from 20020 to 20055. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10875.0 tons to 384575 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6750.0 tons to 56070 tons. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.4 tons to 55.7 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 326.8 yuan/ton to 16670.58 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 160.8 yuan/ton to 3627.42 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton from last week [4] Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the macro - situation is mixed, supply is stable, and consumption has a slow - weakening trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [7] Industry News - In March 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 616.09 million tons, consumption was 588.36 million tons, with a supply surplus of 27.72 million tons. From January to March 2025, the production was 1797.83 million tons, consumption was 1743.96 million tons, with a supply surplus of 53.87 million tons. Guangyuan Economic Development Zone has gathered over 90 aluminum - related enterprises. In April 2025, China exported 52 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 188 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which are used to show the price, ratio, premium, cost - profit, and inventory changes of aluminum [10][11][14]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Tight Balance Expectations Heat Up, Copper Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [1] Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at high levels. The main reasons were that the US manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range and the Chinese central bank introduced loose policies to continuously inject vitality into the economy. However, the US tax reform bill will face high budget deficit pressure in the future, slightly suppressing market risk appetite. The market has fully digested the optimistic sentiment such as the China-US trade truce, and there is a short - term lack of macro - logical drivers. In addition, a global well - known commodity giant warned of the risk of a "copper shortage" this year, stating that the strong demand from China's new energy industry and the pre - demand due to US tariff premiums will break the original supply - demand balance, and it is expected that the global refined copper gap may reach as much as 300,000 tons in 2025 [2]. - Overall, the strong resilience of the US economy and a series of economic stimulus policies introduced by China continue to boost copper prices. However, after the release of the optimistic sentiment from the previous China - US negotiations, there is currently a lack of core macro - drivers, and the uncertainty of tariff hikes and trade policies still continuously disrupts the global supply chain. Fundamentally, the interference rate at the upstream mine end has increased, the domestic refined copper supply margin has widened, and the social inventory has rebounded from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level fluctuations and wait for future direction guidance [3][12] Market Data Price Changes - LME copper rose from $9,440.00 to $9,614.00, an increase of $174.00 or 1.84% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 459.15 cents/pound to 486.5 cents/pound, an increase of 27.35 cents or 5.96% [4]. - SHFE copper fell from 78,140.00 yuan/ton to 77,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350.00 yuan or - 0.45% [4]. - International copper fell from 69,350.00 yuan/ton to 69,030.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan or - 0.46% [4]. - The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 8.09, a decrease of 0.19 [4]. - LME spot premium/discount fell from $31.45 to $31.14, a decrease of $0.31 or - 0.99% [4]. - Shanghai spot premium/discount fell from 445 yuan to 165 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan [4]. Inventory Changes - LME inventory decreased from 179,375 tons to 164,725 tons, a decrease of 14,650 tons or - 8.17% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 169,664 short tons to 175,631 short tons, an increase of 5,967 short tons or 3.52% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 108,124 tons to 98,653 tons, a decrease of 9,471 tons or - 8.76% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 71,500 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons or - 16.36% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 528,663 tons to 498,809 tons, a decrease of 29,854 tons or - 5.65% [7] Market Analysis and Outlook Macro - aspect - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, a three - month high, significantly higher than the expected 49.9. The new orders sub - index rose significantly to 53.3, expanding for five consecutive months. After the trade war subsided, enterprises' expectations for future output turned optimistic, but some producers also reported high cost - end pressure. The export orders index showed two consecutive months of contraction. The passage of the Trump tax reform bill by the US House of Representatives intensified the sell - off in the US Treasury market, dragging down the center of the US stock index and market risk appetite. It is estimated that the bill will increase the US budget deficit by $2.7 trillion in ten years [10]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The market generally expects the ECB to cut interest rates slightly again in June. The Chinese central bank lowered the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR by 10 basis points, and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the institutional mechanism for promoting the development of the private economy [10]. Supply - demand aspect - This week, the spot TC remained below - $40/ton. The underground mining operations of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under Ivanhoe have been fully suspended due to multiple earthquakes. The Cobre Panama project under First Quantum restarted after signing a new agreement, and the Antamina copper mine in Peru has not returned to normal levels. The interference rate at the upstream mine end continues to increase [11]. - In terms of refined copper, domestic refined copper production is running at a high level, but the TC negotiation is approaching in the middle of the year. Maintaining negative processing fees for a long time may cause some small and medium - sized smelters in China to face production cuts. Recently, the volume of imported goods from South America has gradually decreased but is limited. The supply margin has changed from tight to loose, but the sustainability needs further observation. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects are advancing steadily. The weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises is 82.3%, and that of refined copper rod enterprises is about 73%, slightly lower than the same period in previous years. The current concern on the demand side is the significant decline in demand after the photovoltaic installation rush. In addition, the copper demand growth rate of emerging industries is stable, with new energy vehicles performing very well, and the copper demand in the artificial intelligence field and data centers is also increasing [11]. Industry News - According to the latest WBMS report, in March 2025, the global refined copper production reached 2.513 million tons, and the consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a supply surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March this year, the total global refined copper production was 7.2832 million tons, and the total consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a total supply surplus of 270,800 tons, and the supply gap is decreasing month by month [14]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter in East Java has resumed operation ahead of schedule after a fire - related shutdown last October. It is expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - load production in December. In March this year, the Indonesian government issued a six - month license to Freeport Indonesia, allowing it to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate [14]. - Ivanhoe has suspended the underground mining operations of its Kakula copper mine due to earthquake activities in the eastern mining area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After inspection, the seismic activity in the past 24 hours has significantly decreased, and the western area of the Kakula mine has been declared safe, with mining operations about to resume. The processing capacity of the No. 1 and No. 2 concentrators of the Kakula mine has decreased, and currently only processes ore from the surface stockpile [15]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee range of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 530 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 160 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The rapid decline in processing fees was due to the decline in the premium after the monthly contract change, and the high - level fluctuation of copper prices around 78,000 yuan made downstream enterprises wait - and - see, with low restocking willingness and mainly for rigid demand procurement. In the East China market, the transaction volume of the refined copper rod market increased slightly last week. In the South China market, downstream enterprises mainly took delivery of long - term orders, and the zero - order trading volume was limited [16]. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, Shanghai copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side shows that steel mills are increasing furnace shutdowns and maintenance during the off - season. The maintenance period is long and mainly involves large blast furnaces, indicating that molten iron production has peaked. The supply side reveals that last week's overseas shipment volume increased month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. Overall, the fundamentals have weakened, and it is expected that iron ore will fluctuate weakly [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3046 yuan/ton, a decline of 36 yuan, a drop of 1.17%, a total trading volume of 6,951,630 lots, and a total open interest of 2,902,476 lots [2] - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3189 yuan/ton, a decline of 37 yuan, a drop of 1.15%, a total trading volume of 2,170,566 lots, and a total open interest of 1,353,196 lots [2] - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 718.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.0 yuan, a drop of 1.37%, a total trading volume of 1,542,621 lots, and a total open interest of 756,347 lots [2] - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 801.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 51.0 yuan, a drop of 5.98%, a total trading volume of 2,192,852 lots, and a total open interest of 568,597 lots [2] - DCE coke had a closing price of 1383.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 62.5 yuan, a drop of 4.32%, a total trading volume of 110,769 lots, and a total open interest of 56,994 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated downward. With a stable macro - environment and weakening demand in the fundamentals, the iron ore price declined. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 753 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 128 yuan/ton [4] - On the demand side, steel mills are increasing furnace shutdowns and maintenance during the off - season. The maintenance period is long and mainly involves large blast furnaces, indicating that molten iron production has peaked. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.19 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 2.436 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [1][4] - On the supply side, last week's overseas shipment volume increased month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The total global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3478 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 318,800 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 283,200 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia was 1.8887 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,100 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons. The total shipment volume from Brazil was 886,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 237,100 tons. The iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.7061 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 283,600 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1.8278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,600 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.579 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,800 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 878,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 253,100 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.59183 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 155,160 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 343,190 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons [1][5] 3.3 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, chaired a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth of the financial aggregate. It is necessary to increase support for key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption stimulation, private small and micro - enterprises, and stable foreign trade, and make full use of existing and incremental policies. Strengthen the implementation and transmission of monetary policy and maintain a fair market competition order [9] - From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.31937 billion square meters, a decrease of 10.1%. The new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 131.64 million square meters, a decrease of 22.3%. The housing completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Among them, the residential completion area was 114.24 million square meters, a decrease of 16.8% [9] - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment increased by 0.2% year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in April increased by 0.10%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 11.7% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 6.3%, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 25.5%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Among them, investment in water conservancy management increased by 30.7%, investment in water transportation increased by 26.9%, and investment in air transportation increased by 13.9% [9] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore; the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore; steel mill profit per ton; the profit and loss situation of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; the daily and ten - day steel production in the country; the inventory of steel billets in the country and Tangshan; the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil; the increase rate of the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil; the factory inventory of steel; the weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in steel mills; the apparent consumption of steel; the terminal procurement volume of wire rods and rebar in Shanghai; the daily and ten - day production of pig iron and crude steel in the country; the number of profitable steel mills; the daily molten iron production; the operation situation of electric furnaces in the country; the blast furnace operating rate; the port inventory of 45 ports and main ports; the port inventory by iron ore type; the number of ships at ports; the average available days of iron ore in steel mills; the total inventory and daily consumption of iron ore in steel mills; the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil; the arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports; the shipment volume of iron ore mines; and the number of ships arriving in China with iron ore [7][10][12]