Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with a slight decline in late - May due to some steel mill maintenance. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 2.33 million tons to 2.2 million tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased from 3.19 million tons to 3.29 million tons. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions [3][14]. - Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand weakened, and plate demand was weak. Real estate investment was sluggish, and infrastructure was stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry was in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances weakened. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, with steel exports increasing by 8.2% year - on - year from January to April, but the new export order index in May shrank to 42% [3]. - In the next month, steel prices will face continuous pressure. Terminal real estate investment will continue to decline, and due to poor data on new housing starts and construction areas, combined with seasonal patterns, the apparent demand for construction materials will decline. The domestic manufacturing industry will continue to contract, the demand for automobiles and home appliances will slow down, and overseas tariff impacts will lead to weak demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, steel demand will face both internal and external pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the steel market was under pressure and declined. After the May Day holiday, steel prices rose and then fell, with weak supply and demand. The blast furnace operating rate remained high, and electric furnaces reduced production due to losses. The demand side was suppressed by the decline in real estate investment. On May 12, the Sino - US tariff negotiation reached an agreement, boosting market sentiment, but the steel price rebound was short - lived. In the second half of the month, steel prices broke through downward after narrow - range fluctuations. Weak reality (declining off - season demand) and weak expectations (weak real estate + export pressure), combined with high supply and cost loosening, drove steel prices down. In June, supply - demand contradictions may further accumulate [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel mills' production is stable, and supply pressure remains high - From January to April, China's pig iron, crude steel, and steel production were 288.85 million tons, 345.35 million tons, and 480.21 million tons respectively, with cumulative year - on - year increases of 0.8%, 0.4%, and 6%. In April, crude steel production decreased by 7.3% month - on - month due to blast furnace maintenance and weak demand. In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with blast furnace hot metal production remaining at around 2.44 million tons per day. The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was about 2.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.08%; the weekly output of five major steel products was 8.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The production structure was differentiated, with long - process better than short - process. Electric furnace losses increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.2% to 33.8% [14]. 2.2 Steel inventory reduction slowed down, and factory inventory increased - In May, steel inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The absolute inventory was at a historical low, and the differentiation between varieties intensified. As of June 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 million tons), the social inventory was 9.31 million tons (a decrease of 0.92 million tons), and the factory inventory was 4.33 million tons (an increase of 0.09 million tons). After the May delivery, the number of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil will gradually enter the accumulation cycle [19]. 2.3 Demand enters the off - season, and pressure increases - Construction steel demand is weak and entering the off - season. Real estate investment is sluggish, and infrastructure is stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry is in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances are weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, and subsequent exports are under pressure [22]. 2.4 External risks still exist - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. Real estate investment continued to decline, and housing steel - using indicators continued to decline significantly. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating. In May, manufacturing steel - using showed internal differentiation and weakening external demand. Steel exports faced short - term pressure relief but were still blocked in the medium term. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative steel imports were 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and cumulative exports were 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [28][31][46]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In May, steel production was stable at a high level. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions. - Demand side: Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand will weaken, and plate demand will be weak. Overall, steel demand will continue to face double pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [48][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil and fat sector showed a volatile trend with differentiation. Affected by the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakened significantly. Soybean oil was more obviously boosted by the improved sentiment in China - US trade but remained in a volatile range. For palm oil, both production and inventory in the producing areas are expected to increase. Export demand has improved compared to the previous period, supporting prices to some extent. The palm oil market saw frequent short - term capital inflows and outflows, with gradually narrowing fluctuations, and the weekly line closed slightly higher [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut time may be postponed. Attention should be paid to this week's China - US economic and trade meeting. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices rose with fluctuations. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report and the follow - up negotiation progress of China - Canada trade. In general, palm oil may continue to fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 39 to close at 3,917 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 100 to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 208 to close at 9,140 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decrease; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.53 to close at 47.43 cents/pound, a 1.13% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 18.7 to close at 602.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.63% decrease [4][7]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao increased by 60 yuan/ton to 7,930 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 9,420 yuan/ton, a 1.46% decrease [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - MPOB monthly report preview: Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8]. - According to SPPOMA data, in May 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 1.90%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.30%, and palm oil production increased by 3.53%. MPOA data shows that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.07%. UOB data shows that as of May 25, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 1 - 5% [8]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 are expected to be 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the same period last month. AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the same period last month [9]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, sunflower oil imports increased by 2% to 184,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 10% to 398,000 tons, and palm oil imports soared by 87% to 600,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 14,750 tons, and that of palm oil was 903 tons [11]. Industry News - A commodity research institution predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 19 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. Thailand's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.09 - 4.09 million tons [12][13]. - Global palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season are expected to be 41.6 million tons, a 1% decrease from last month's estimate and a 0.5% decrease from the 2023/24 season, mainly due to the downward adjustment of India's import estimate [13]. - Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to April this year, a 5.37% decrease from the same period last year. However, due to rising prices, the export value of palm oil in the first four months reached $7.05 billion, a 20% increase from the same period last year [14]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the inventory and production trends of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD, My Agri - data, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 15.75 to close at 1058 cents per bushel, a 1.51% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 42 to close at 3010 yuan per ton, a 1.42% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2820 yuan per ton, a 2.08% decrease; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 29 to close at 2608 yuan per ton, a 1.1% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2460 yuan per ton, a 1.2% decrease [4]. - After the China - US presidential call, trade concerns eased, the market atmosphere improved, and US soybeans closed higher with weekly fluctuations. The US soybean sowing season is nearing its end and started well. Domestic oil mills' operating rates are at a high level, and soybeans and soybean meal are in an inventory - building rhythm, with supply becoming more abundant and spot prices under slight downward pressure. Boosted by trade sentiment, US soybeans rose. Coupled with the decline in Brazilian farmers' selling enthusiasm and the increase in premiums, the Dalian soybean meal contract fluctuated upwards. There is an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, and the rapeseed sector showed weakness due to sentiment, with rapeseed meal closing lower with fluctuations [4][7]. - The US soybean crop condition report shows a good start. The weather forecast indicates that overall precipitation in the production areas is higher than normal, but the central - western production areas are relatively dry, which may put pressure on regional crop growth. Continued attention should be paid to weather changes. After the China - US presidential call, trade sentiment improved, and further negotiation progress should be monitored. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously increasing, supply is becoming more abundant, and spot prices are still under pressure, limiting the upward range of the futures market. The far - month contracts are still strongly supported, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate slightly upwards in the short term. In addition, attention should be paid to the evolution of China - Canada trade relations and its potential impact on the rapeseed sector [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on June 6 was 1058.00 cents per bushel, up 15.75 (1.51%) from May 30. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 447.00 dollars per ton, up 6.00 (1.36%); the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 457.00 dollars per ton, up 1.00 (0.22%). The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market was 81.71 yuan per ton, down 13.59 from the previous period. The DCE soybean meal 09 contract was 3010.00 yuan per ton, up 42 (1.42%); the CZCE rapeseed meal 09 contract was 2608.00 yuan per ton, down 29 (1.1%). The spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2840.00 yuan per ton, down 20 (0.70%); in South China, it was 2820.00 yuan per ton, down 60 (2.08%). The spot - futures price difference in South China was - 190.00 yuan per ton, down 102 from the previous period [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean sowing progress as of June 1, 2025, was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of May 27, about 17% of the planting areas were affected by drought. The weekly export inspection volume as of May 29 was 26.83 tons, in line with expectations. The current - market - year export net sales increased by 19.4 tons. The cumulative export sales volume in the 2024/2025 season was 4865 tons, with a sales progress of 96.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in April was 607 million short tons, and the cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to April 2025 was 4924 million short tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.94%. The crushing profit as of May 30 was 2.11 dollars per bushel, down 1% from the previous week [8][9]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 31, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 99.8%. The estimated soybean export volume in June was 1255 tons, lower than last year's 1383 tons. As of June 4, the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 88.7%, and the estimated 2024/2025 harvest was about 5000 tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 30, the inventory of major oil mills' soybeans was 582.88 tons, up 22.25 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 29.8 tons, up 9.11 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 369.29 tons, up 33.89 tons. The national port soybean inventory was 705.4 tons, up 30.1 tons. As of June 6, the weekly average daily trading volume of national soybean meal was 11.94 tons (9.59 tons for spot and 2.35 tons for forward contracts), the average daily pick - up volume was 20.12 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 224.46 tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 6.31 days [10][11]. Industry News - Strategic Grains significantly revised down the EU's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 1860 tons, lower than the April forecast of 1900 tons but about 11% higher than the 2024/2025 production. It also revised down the EU's 2025/26 sunflower seed and soybean production forecasts [12]. - The IMEA in Brazil's Mato Grosso state maintained its 2025/26 soybean planting area forecast at 1300.82 million hectares, up 1.67% from the previous year; the yield per unit area was expected to be 60.45 bags per hectare, down 8.81%; the production was expected to be 4718.44 tons, down 7.29% [13]. - As of June 1, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 263 tons, down from 324 tons last year; soybean imports were 1294 tons, up from 1213 tons; soybean meal imports were 1768 tons, up from 1408 tons; rapeseed imports were 640 tons, up from 519 tons [13]. - As of May 28, Argentine farmers sold 90.89 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 1787.65 tons. They also sold 2.71 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 12.84 tons [14]. - A commodity research institution maintained its 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production forecast at 325 tons. The weather conditions in Ukraine have been mixed in the past two weeks, with the western region being cool and wet and the eastern region being warm and dry [15]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina indicated that the current - year soybean yield per unit area is developing better than expected, and the estimated 2024/25 soybean harvest is about 5000 tons and 4900 tons of corn [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, management fund CBOT net position, soybean meal futures and spot price trends, US soybean production area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvest progress, US soybean export - related data, US oil mill crushing profit, soybean meal trading and pick - up volume, and port and oil mill inventory data [16][17][18][21][35][36][40][43][47][49][53][54][55].

李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The call between Chinese and US leaders briefly boosted market risk appetite, but the intensifying internal division in the US may lead to more market volatility in June. Attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data to assess the impact of tariff policies on the US economy [2]. - In the domestic market, the A - share risk appetite continued to rise, the bond market weakened, and the domestic policy may be in a vacuum period in June with the economy in a weak recovery [3]. - The silver price is expected to continue its catch - up trend, the copper price is expected to oscillate upward, the aluminum price will remain under pressure and oscillate, the alumina price will continue to oscillate, the zinc price will oscillate and converge, the lead price will have a narrow - range oscillation, the tin price will oscillate strongly, the industrial silicon price will oscillate weakly at a low level, the lithium carbonate price difference has a correction expectation, the nickel price will oscillate, the oil price may rebound in the short - term but has a long - term downward pressure, the steel price will oscillate, the iron ore price will oscillate, the soybean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate strongly, and the palm oil price will oscillate [4][7][9][11][12][13][15][17][18][22][23][24][26][28][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The call between Chinese and US leaders focused on trade and key mineral disputes, and reached a consensus on continued consultations. The internal division in the US intensified, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected [2]. - Domestic: The A - share risk appetite continued to rise, the bond market weakened, and the central bank announced a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: The gold futures price slightly declined due to the signal of eased trade tensions from the Sino - US leaders' call [4]. - Silver: The international silver price rose strongly by 3.3%, breaking through the strong resistance level of $35 per ounce. It has a strong catch - up demand and the catch - up logic is expected to continue [4][6]. 3.3 Base Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract continued to oscillate strongly, and the London copper steadily rose. The European Central Bank cut interest rates, and the supply - side disturbances continued to drive the copper price upward [7][8]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline, but the consumption side was weak. The aluminum price remained under pressure and oscillated [9][10]. - Alumina: The alumina futures main contract fell by 2.9%. The market was both bullish and bearish, and the price continued to oscillate [11]. - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated narrowly. The downstream consumption weakened marginally, and the inventory increased slightly. The zinc price oscillated and converged [12]. - Lead: The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated horizontally. The inventory continued to increase, and the lead price had a narrow - range oscillation with insufficient one - way driving force [13]. - Tin: The Shanghai tin main contract rose after a night - session gap - up. The London tin continued to rise, driving the Shanghai tin to break through the moving - average pressure. The tin price was expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract continued to fall. The supply - side rebound was limited, and the demand was weak. The price oscillated weakly at a low level [16][17]. 3.4 Energy Metals - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated, and the spot price fell. The price difference had a correction expectation, and the far - month short positions needed to be cautious [18][19]. - Nickel: The nickel price oscillated. The ore shortage situation was expected to improve, and the short - term nickel price would oscillate [21][22]. 3.5 Energy - Crude Oil: The crude oil price was temporarily stable. The geopolitical situation was tense, and the OPEC + was expected to increase production in July and August. The oil price may rebound in the short - term but had a long - term downward pressure [23]. 3.6 Steel - Steel: The steel futures rebounded. The steel supply and demand were both weak, and the steel price was expected to oscillate [24][25]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The market sentiment was boosted by the Sino - US leaders' call, and the iron ore price was expected to oscillate [26]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose. The market sentiment improved, and the short - term prices were expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil price oscillated. The MPOA data showed a moderate increase in the Malaysian palm oil production, and the short - term price was expected to oscillate [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the cold US data and Trump's call for a rate cut have led to market speculation on rate - cut expectations. In the US, the May ISM services PMI fell below the boom - bust line, the ADP employment data was far below expectations, and the Fed's Beige Book showed a slight weakening of economic activity. Domestically, the A - share market rebounded with increased trading volume, and the bond market had a V - shaped rebound. The domestic economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in Q2, and domestic policies are waiting for the July meeting window [2][3]. - Different commodities have different price trends. Gold prices rebounded due to weak US data; copper prices are expected to continue strong oscillations; aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate; alumina prices are expected to oscillate favorably; zinc prices are in a stalemate; lead prices are in a stable consolidation; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure; nickel prices are expected to oscillate; oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly; steel prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; and agricultural product prices such as soybean meal and palm oil are expected to oscillate [3][6][8][11][12][14][15][16][18][21][23][24][26][27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The May ISM services PMI in the US was 49.9, falling below the boom - bust line. The ADP employment data in May was only 3.7 million, far lower than the expected 11 million. The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the dollar index fell to 98.7, with the 10Y US Treasury yield dropping to 4.36%. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff negotiations, tax - cut bills, and the non - farm payroll report on Friday [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rebounded with the trading volume of the two markets rising to 1.16 trillion. The bond market had a V - shaped rebound, with the 10Y and 30Y yields at 1.67% and 1.89% respectively. The domestic economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in Q2, and domestic policies are waiting for the July meeting window [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.60% to $3397.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $34.66 per ounce. Weak US data and geopolitical and economic uncertainties have led investors to turn to gold as a safe - haven asset [3]. 3.3 Copper - Macro: The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight decline in US economic activity, and the ADP employment data was far lower than expected, with the dollar index weakening and boosting copper prices. - Industry: First Quantum will spend about $20 million per month to maintain its Cobre Panama copper mine. The mine has 121,000 tons of concentrates, but some have deteriorated. The president is interested in renegotiating the mine's operation. LME copper inventories fell to 141,000 tons. Copper prices are expected to continue strong oscillations [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - Macro: The weak US economic data led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rebound in metal prices. - Fundamentals: The proportion of molten aluminum may increase, and the supply of aluminum ingots may decline. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption is expected to decline. Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate [8][9][10]. 3.5 Alumina - Guinea's mine disruptions due to force majeure have led to a technical vacation, which is beneficial for the rebound of alumina prices. The current supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the spot is slightly tight. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate favorably [11]. 3.6 Zinc - The spot premium of zinc remains high, but downstream demand is weak. The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for Q3 2025. A Canadian mine was temporarily closed due to wildfires. The supply is expected to recover strongly in June and July, but the current spot arrival is insufficient. Zinc prices are in a stalemate, with short - term sideways movement and medium - to - long - term downward pressure [12][13]. 3.7 Lead - The downstream demand for lead is weak after the holiday, and the supply pressure has increased marginally. The support at around 16,500 yuan for lead prices is effective, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to maintain a consolidation trend [14]. 3.8 Tin - Downstream restocking has led to a significant decline in inventories, supporting the rebound of tin prices. However, the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient, and the consumption side is weak. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with attention paid to the pressure near the moving average [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The supply rebound of industrial silicon is limited, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen slightly, and the spot market is still in a downward trend. Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom [16][17]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated strongly, while the spot price fell. The new production capacity launch is slowing down. Technically, there is no sign of active bullish pulling. The spot price is weak, and the fundamentals lack factors to boost prices. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rallies [18][19][20]. 3.11 Nickel - The weak US economic data may cause economic expectations to weaken. The supply of nickel ore may recover, and some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have cut production. However, stainless - steel mills have reduced production, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The US - Iran peace talks have made new progress, and Saudi Arabia wants to increase production significantly, but there are differences within OPEC +. The short - term bearish sentiment is strong, and oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures rebounded, but the real - estate market dragged down demand, and the seasonal demand for rebar weakened. The steel consumption decreased during the college entrance examination. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate [24][25]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The spot trading volume of iron ore increased, and the supply was relatively loose. However, steel mills' off - season shutdowns and maintenance increased, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [26]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the news of the easing of China - Canada trade relations has affected the rapeseed market. The domestic spot price is under pressure, and the soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate [27]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The sharp decline in rapeseed oil prices has dragged down the entire oil and fat sector. The expected increase in palm oil production and inventory has put pressure on prices. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [28][29].

Report Title - Macro Weekly Report: Overseas Risk-Aversion Sentiment Intensifies, Domestic Weak Recovery Continues [1] Core Views - Overseas, there are signs of partial recovery in the US "soft data", with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising in May and inflation expectations falling from their highs. However, the manufacturing sector remains sluggish due to tariff disruptions, with the May ISM Manufacturing PMI contracting for three consecutive months, weaker than expected, and the import sub-index hitting a 16-year low, while the price sub-index remains high. Overall, the US economic fundamentals remain resilient, and the GDPNow model has revised up its Q2 economic growth forecast to 4.6%. This week, attention is focused on the May non-farm payroll report and the services PMI. Last week, the US dollar index maintained a weak oscillation, and the gold price returned to a high level, reflecting three risks: internal conflicts in the US weakening its sovereign credit, setbacks in the US tariff negotiations with other countries, and renewed conflicts in war-torn countries. In June, attention is on the progress of Trump's tax cut bill in the Senate and the trade court's ruling on tariffs [2]. - Domestically, the manufacturing sector's sentiment improved slightly in May, with both supply and demand improving. The reduction in Sino-US tariffs has led to a marginal recovery in production driven by pre-export activities, and new orders have significantly improved due to external demand. However, price pressures remain, and the signs of companies "trading price for volume" and actively reducing inventory continue. In addition, the sentiment in the service and construction sectors remains lower than in previous years, indicating that domestic demand is still the main drag in the second quarter, and more policy support is urgently needed in the context of weak inflation. In June, attention is on the possibility of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents [3] Section Summaries Overseas Macro - US May Manufacturing PMI Weakens: The May ISM Manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the "rush to import" may have ended. The May ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 48.7, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. New orders continued to shrink, external demand was under pressure, costs were high, and employment was weak. The import sub-index hit a 16-year low, suggesting that the peak of "rush to import" may have passed under tariff disruptions. The trade surplus has led the GDPNow to revise up the Q2 economic growth rate to 4.6%. Meanwhile, the final value of the US May Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, slightly lower than the expected 52.3 and the initial value of 52.3, still in the expansion range. The difference between the two may be due to the ISM PMI's high dependence on external demand, supply chains, and large manufacturers, making it more sensitive to policy shocks and external uncertainties [5]. - Consumer Confidence Recovers, Inflation Expectations Fall from Highs: After the easing of tariff negotiations, the US "soft data" has improved. The final value of the US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 52.2, higher than the expected 51.0 and the initial value of 50.8. With the significant reduction in Sino-US tariffs, consumer confidence has recovered, but the absolute level remains at a historical low, indicating that consumers are still highly concerned about the future economy. The final value of the one-year inflation expectation in May was 6.6%, lower than the expected 7.1% and the initial value of 7.3%; the final value of the 5 - 10-year inflation expectation was 4.2%, lower than the expected 4.5% and the initial value of 4.6%, ending four months of sharp increases [7]. Domestic Macro - China's May Manufacturing Sentiment Improves as Expected: The May Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 49.0. There were differences among enterprises of different sizes, with large enterprises rising 1.5 to 50.7, entering the expansion range, while medium and small enterprises remained in the contraction range. Both supply and demand improved, with external demand making a prominent contribution. Production rose 0.9 to 50.7, returning to the expansion range; new orders rose 0.6 to 49.8, approaching the boom-bust line; new export orders rose significantly by 2.8 to 47.5, showing obvious marginal improvement. Overall, with the phased easing of Sino-US tariff frictions, enterprises have seized the window period to accelerate production, and the release of export orders has driven the recovery of the production side. Prices were weak, and enterprises actively reduced inventory. The raw material inventory rose to 47.4, and the finished product inventory fell 0.8 to 46.5. In terms of prices, the purchase price of raw materials in April fell 0.1 to 46.9, and the ex-factory price fell 0.1 to 44.7, indicating that the signs of companies "trading price for volume" and actively reducing inventory continue [10]. - Construction and Service Sectors Remain Sluggish, Domestic Demand Recovery is Weak: In the non-manufacturing sector, the May Service PMI was 50.2, slightly higher than the previous value of 50.1 but lower than the level of previous years. Driven by the May Day holiday, tourism, travel, and catering consumption were active, and the sentiment in the transportation and accommodation industries rose to the expansion range; high - growth industries such as postal, communication, and the Internet continued to grow steadily. The Construction PMI was 51.0, lower than the previous value of 51.9 and at the lowest level in the same period over the years, with real estate construction remaining sluggish [11]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The performance of equity markets varied. In the A-share market, the Wind All - A Index was at 5074.29, with a weekly decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 2.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.04%. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3347.49, with a weekly decline of -0.03%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - to - date decline of -0.13%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index was at 23289.77, with a weekly decline of -1.32%, a monthly increase of 5.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.44%. Overseas, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 42270.07, with a weekly increase of 1.60%, a monthly increase of 3.94%, and a year - to - date decline of -0.64% [19]. - Bonds: In the domestic bond market, the 1 - year Treasury yield was 1.46%, with a weekly increase of 1.51 basis points, a monthly increase of 0.08 basis points, and a year - to - date increase of 35.30 basis points. In the overseas bond market, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, with a weekly decline of 11.00 basis points, a monthly increase of 29.00 basis points, and a year - to - date decline of 36.00 basis points [22]. - Commodities: The Nanhua Commodity Index was at 2349.69, with a weekly decline of -1.62%, a monthly decline of -2.40%, and a year - to - date decline of -5.88%. The CRB Commodity Index was at 290.43, with a weekly decline of -2.10%, a monthly increase of 0.57%, and a year - to - date decline of -2.12%. COMEX Gold was at 3313.10, with a weekly decline of -1.57%, a monthly decline of -0.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 25.45% [23]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1953, with a weekly increase of 0.08%, a monthly decline of -0.93%, and a year - to - date decline of -1.42%. The US dollar index was at 99.4393, with a weekly increase of 0.32%, a monthly decline of -0.20%, and a year - to - date decline of -8.34% [26]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report includes data on the congestion index of 100 cities, the subway passenger volume of 23 cities, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 cities, the second - hand housing transaction area of 12 cities, passenger car sales, and the apparent consumption of rebar [28]. - Overseas: The report includes data on the Redbook commercial retail sales and the number of unemployment benefit claims in the US [32]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events for this week, including China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the eurozone's May CPI annual and monthly rates, the US's May ADP employment data, and the US's May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to close at 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to close at 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2490 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.47% [4][7]. - Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and smooth sowing progress, combined with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy leading to a decline in US soybean oil, caused US soybeans to close lower in a volatile manner. In China, the oil mill crushing volume continued to rise, the bean meal inventory gradually increased, the supply became more abundant, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed had good demand, combined with the recovery of the aquaculture industry and the expectation of tightened imports, rapeseed meal showed strong performance; the Dalian bean meal had support from far - month expectations and was driven by rapeseed meal, so it closed slightly higher in a volatile manner [4][7]. - Affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil broke through the recent support level. With the US soybean sowing progress over 80% and good weather conditions conducive to the end of the sowing season, US soybeans declined in a volatile manner. In China, the increase in the oil mill crushing rate led to more supply, putting pressure on the spot price to fall; the strengthening of rapeseed meal, the non - purchase of new - season US soybeans for the time being, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations provided support for the Dalian bean meal. Overall, the Dalian bean meal may move in a volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans dropped 5 to 441 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.12%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 7 to 456 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.51%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 52.16 to 95.29 yuan per ton; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the bean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 65 to 331 yuan per ton; the East China bean meal spot price fell 40 to 2860 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.38%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 76 to - 88 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 25, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 76%, lower than the market expectation of 78%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be 65 - 75mm, slightly higher than the average. As of the week of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.49 tons, and the export net sales increased 14.6 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 4433 tons, and the cumulative export sales volume was 4846 tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans during the week, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 2248 tons. As of the week of May 23, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [8][9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 24, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvesting progress was 99.5%. Anec expected Brazil's May soybean exports to reach 1403 tons. As of the week of May 28, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 80.7%, and the dry and less - rainy climate in the next two weeks is conducive to the end of the harvesting work [9][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of the week of May 23, the main oil mill soybean inventory decreased 26.2 tons to 560.63 tons, the bean meal inventory increased 52 tons to 20.69 tons, the unexecuted contract decreased 69.84 tons to 335.4 tons, and the national port soybean inventory decreased 8.3 tons to 675.3 tons. As of the week of May 30, the national daily average bean meal trading volume was 8.258 tons, the daily average提货量 was 18.608 tons, the main oil mill crushing volume was 226.82 tons, and the feed enterprise bean meal inventory days were 5.99 days [10][11]. Industry News - Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.720 billion tons and corn production to be 1.327 billion tons [12]. - In the fourth week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipments were 1115.43 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 8.96% year - on - year; the cumulative bean meal shipments were 170.46 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 3.44% year - on - year [12][13]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean crushing volume decreased 7.2% month - on - month, and the rapeseed crushing volume decreased 10.27% month - on - month [13]. - From May 19 to May 23, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil was 605.05 reais per ton [13]. - As of May 25, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 257 tons, soybean imports were 1269 tons, bean meal imports were 1732 tons, and rapeseed imports were 632 tons [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to slightly decline to 4870 tons [15]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is lowered by 1% to 1800 tons, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% [16]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is 620 tons, supported by long - term weather prospects [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the bean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional bean meal spot price, the bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean sowing progress, the US soybean export - related data, the US oil mill crushing profit, the bean meal weekly average trading volume, the bean meal weekly average提货量, the port soybean inventory, the oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume, and the oil mill crushing rate [18][20][23][24] etc.

Report Title - Palm Oil Weekly Report [1] Report Date - June 3, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 51 to close at 3,878 ringgit/ton, up 1.33%; the palm oil 09 contract rose 54 to close at 8,060 yuan/ton, up 0.67%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 136 to close at 7,638 yuan/ton, down 1.75%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 43 to close at 9,348 yuan/ton, down 0.46%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.32 to close at 46.9 cents/pound, down 4.71%; the ICE canola active contract fell 5.6 to close at 711 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.78% [4]. - The oil and fat sector showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil performing strongly. Malaysia is upgrading its B10 policy to B20, and Indonesia has enforced the B40 policy, which may boost the incremental demand for biodiesel. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production has narrowed, and the export demand has improved significantly. India will lower import tariffs, which is conducive to expanding the export demand of producing countries. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy remains, which may be negative for the demand of US soybean oil, causing it to decline. The domestic supply of soybean oil has increased, showing relative weakness [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the manufacturing PMI data in Europe and the US have slowed down. The trade trends of major economies affect market sentiment. The US dollar index has weakened in a volatile manner, geopolitical risks have intensified, and crude oil has rebounded from a low level and closed higher. Fundamentally, India's reduction of import tariffs on crude edible oils may be beneficial to expanding the export demand for palm oil. The biodiesel policies of relevant countries still have great uncertainty. Attention should be paid to the evolution of these policies. In addition, waiting for the guidance from the MPOB report, combined with the support of rising crude oil prices and other multiple factors, palm oil may fluctuate widely in the short term [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 49.22 to 46.9 cents/pound, down 2.32 cents or 4.71%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose from 3,827 to 3,878 ringgit/ton, up 51 ringgit or 1.33%. The DCE palm oil contract rose from 8,006 to 8,060 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan or 0.67%. The DCE soybean oil contract fell from 7,774 to 7,638 yuan/ton, down 136 yuan or 1.75%. The CZCE rapeseed oil contract fell from 9,391 to 9,348 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan or 0.46%. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose from 8,600 to 8,630 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.35%. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao fell from 8,030 to 7,870 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan or 1.99%. The spot price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fell from 9,610 to 9,560 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.52% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - According to SPPOMA data, from May 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia decreased by 1.06%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.34%, and palm oil production increased by 0.73%. According to MPOA data, from May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.51% compared with the same period last month. Among them, the production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 4.09%, the production in Sabah increased by 4.52%, the production in Sarawak decreased by 2.15%, and the production in Borneo increased by 2.75% [8]. - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31, 2025, were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase compared with the same period last month. According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from May 1 - 25, 2025, were 947,248 tons, a 34.71% increase compared with the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25, 2025, were 991,702 tons, a 7.34% increase compared with the same period last month [8][9]. - Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to $856.38 per ton. Under the new reference price, the export tariff for crude palm oil in June will be $52 per ton, lower than $74 per ton last month [9]. - Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20. Currently, Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, has implemented a mandatory B40 blending plan and is considering further increasing it to B50 [9]. - The White House is considering a plan to clear the backlog of small refinery biofuel exemptions, and the US renewable fuel credit has decreased by 4%. In March 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.39 million tons, exports (including refined palm oil products) were 2.88 million tons, higher than 2.56 million tons in the same period last year, and the palm oil inventory at the end of March was 2.04 million tons, down from 2.25 million tons last month [10]. - India will halve the basic import tariff on crude edible oils to 10%, effectively reducing the total import tariff on these three oils from 27.5% to 16.5% [10]. - As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.0067 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.0809 million tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 0.6972 million tons, an increase of 0.0409 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 0.2182 million tons compared with the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 0.3387 million tons, a decrease of 0.021 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 0.0573 million tons compared with the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.7659 million tons, a decrease of 0.0266 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.3564 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 13,400 tons, down from 36,420 tons the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 593 tons, up from 504 tons the previous week [11]. Industry News - In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to Algeria increased by nearly 82% to about 79,000 tons. Algeria's expanding food processing industry may drive future demand [12]. - Malaysia's Plantation and Commodities Ministry will explain its sustainable palm oil practices to EU representatives. The EU delegation is expected to visit Malaysia in September and October [12]. - Malaysia's Commodities Minister is concerned about the EU classifying the country as a "standard risk" country under the new EUDR, stating that the classification is based on old data. The MPOA CEO previously said that this classification may exclude palm oil producers, especially small farmers, from the EU market [13]. - Sarawak has produced 4.85 million tons of fresh oil palm fruit bunches, an 8.6% increase compared with the same period last year. The production of crude palm oil has also increased by 3.7% to 0.91 million tons [14]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis differences of soybean oil and palm oil, the spreads between different oil contracts, the import profit of palm oil, the monthly inventory, production, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils [15][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall industrial data last week was average, with the apparent demand for steel increasing month-on-month and inventory declining. However, due to the upcoming national high school entrance examination and college entrance examination, construction in many cities was affected, weakening spot demand. The terminal real estate market was a drag, and combined with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot-rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan, a decline of 0.64%, a total trading volume of 9,514,050 lots, and a total open interest of 3,170,785 lots [2] - SHFE hot-rolled coil had a closing price of 3076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan, a decline of 1.13%, a total trading volume of 3,363,117 lots, and a total open interest of 1,552,234 lots [2] - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 702.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan, an increase of 0.50%, a total trading volume of 2,120,072 lots, and a total open interest of 716,254 lots [2] - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 726.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.5 yuan, a decline of 9.19%, a total trading volume of 3,455,596 lots, and a total open interest of 634,111 lots [2] - DCE coke had a closing price of 1308.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan, a decline of 4.11%, a total trading volume of 134,599 lots, and a total open interest of 59,538 lots [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated weakly, the market sentiment was poor, and both futures and spot prices declined in resonance. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2890 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar quote was 3120 (-60) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3170 (-90) yuan/ton [4] - Macroscopically, the plenary meeting of the Expert Consultation Group of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission was held in Beijing. The US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's behavior, policies, and practices in technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation [4] - Industrially, last week's rebar production was 2.26 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, apparent demand was 2.49 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons, rebar mill inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, social inventory was 3.95 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons, and total inventory was 5.81 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons, mill inventory was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons, social inventory was 2.58 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons, total inventory was 3.33 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and apparent demand was 3.27 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons [5] Industry News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's behavior, policies, and practices in technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [6][7] - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than from January to March. Among them, the steel industry's profit from January to April was 16.92 billion yuan [10] - The US Federal Court on May 28, 2025, blocked the tariff policy announced by former President Trump on April 2, 2025, and ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US was an overstep of authority [10] - The plenary meeting of the Expert Consultation Group of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission was held in Beijing, emphasizing key tasks such as accelerating the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectifying "involutionary" competition, and strengthening competition supervision and law enforcement [10] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, smelting profits of long-process steel mills, short-process electric furnace profits in the East China region, blast furnace operating rates of 247 national steel mills, daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills, rebar and hot-rolled coil production, social and mill inventories, total inventories, and apparent consumption [8][11][13]