1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Since this month, affected by factors such as steel mills controlling shipment volume, tight supply of hot - rolled resources, and political unrest in Indonesia, stainless - steel futures prices have fluctuated significantly. Overall, market sentiment is optimistic, raising expectations for stainless steel. However, actual consumption in August was still weak, and dealers' shipment pace was stable, suppressing further price increases. Under the current mature spot - futures business model, a slight deviation of the basis from reality can create arbitrage opportunities for traders. Therefore, before actual demand improves significantly, stainless - steel valuations are expected to remain low. Attention should be paid to the actual release of demand during the traditional peak season and the political stability in Indonesia. Currently, market driving factors are limited, and stainless - steel prices are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillating trend [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Data**: On September 5th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 945 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,915 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.51% [11][16]. - **Supply**: In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to July. In July, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%; in August, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [11][26][29]. - **Demand**: From January to July 2024, the domestic commercial housing sales area was 515.5977 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; in July, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 57.0922 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40%. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 3%, 5%, 1.5%, and 2.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in July was +16.3% [11][39][42]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.083 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 99,700 tons, a decrease of 688 tons from last week. This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 193,900 tons, 654,500 tons, and 234,500 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.63% month - on - month. This week, the floating inventory of stainless steel was 42,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%, and the unloading volume was 48,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44.78% [11][49][52]. - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 945 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently losing 81 yuan/nickel [11][59]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - **Price Changes**: On September 5th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 945 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,915 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.51% [16]. - **Market Quotes**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 15 yuan (+35) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about 35 yuan (- 5) over the main contract. The open interest on the futures market was 267,609 lots, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% [19]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 70 (+0), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 115 (+10) [22]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to July. In July, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%; in August, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [26][29]. - **Indonesian Production and Imports**: In July, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.56%. In July, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.09% [32]. - **Export Situation**: In July, the net export volume of stainless steel was 343,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37% and a year - on - year increase of 20.57%. From January to July, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [35]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2024, the domestic commercial housing sales area was 515.5977 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; in July, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 57.0922 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40% [39]. - **Home Appliances**: In July, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 3%, 5%, 1.5%, and 2.4% respectively [42]. - **Fuel Processing Industry**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in July was +16.3% [42]. - **Other Industries**: In July, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 115,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.54%. In July, the automobile sales volume was 2.5934 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66% [45]. 3.5 Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.083 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 99,700 tons, a decrease of 688 tons from last week [49]. - **Inventory by Series**: This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 193,900 tons, 654,500 tons, and 234,500 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.63% month - on - month. This week, the floating inventory of stainless steel was 42,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%, and the unloading volume was 48,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44.78% [52]. 3.6 Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: In July, the nickel - ore import volume was 5.0058 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.44% and a year - on - year increase of 45.19%. Currently, the quoted price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory is 12.5982 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [56]. - **Nickel Iron**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 945 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently losing 81 yuan/nickel [59]. - **Chromium - Iron Chain**: This week, the quoted price of chrome ore was 56.5 yuan per dry ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan per dry ton compared to last week; the quoted price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan per 50 - base ton, an increase of 200 yuan per 50 - base ton compared to last week. In July, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 801,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.38% [62]. - **Production Profit**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 535 yuan per ton, with a profit margin of - 3.91% [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore and zinc ingot continue to be in a surplus situation, with inventory accumulation in both ore and ingot. The TC of zinc concentrate is rising, and the monthly spread of SHFE zinc is weakly operating. The domestic supply side remains loose, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises have not improved significantly. The LME market has experienced long - term destocking, resulting in low LME zinc warrants and an increase in the LME zinc monthly spread. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets has intensified, and the SHFE - LME ratio has accelerated its decline. Currently, there are high expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, creating a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector. From the perspective of capital positions, some institutional and foreign capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with a high consensus on shorting the variety. It is expected that the short - term downward space is limited, and it will show a low - level oscillation pattern [11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In August, the weighted price of SHFE zinc first rose and then fell, closing down 0.74% at 22,140 yuan/ton, with the total open interest slightly increasing to 223,700 lots. LME zinc 3M oscillated upward, closing up 1.63% at 2,814 dollars/ton, and the open interest slightly increased to 191,500 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 21,970 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of - 65 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 75 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 65 yuan/ton, and a flat price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc has increased to 148,900 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 40,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market is - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 55,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 12,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market is 18.78 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 24.24 dollars/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio on the disk is 1.088, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots is - 2,594.3 yuan/ton. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate is 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 94 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate is 274,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate is 641,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 55.47%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 384,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 50.78%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 51.69%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate is 274,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate is 641,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate is 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 94 dollars/dry ton [25][27][29]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. In July, the net import of zinc ingots was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of - 46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 55.47%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 384,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 50.78%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 51.69%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In July 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot**: In July 2025, the supply - demand difference of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative supply - demand difference of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 88,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Refined Zinc**: In June 2025, the supply - demand difference of overseas refined zinc was a shortage of - 42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative supply - demand difference of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 7,000 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory has increased to 148,900 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 40,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market is - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 55,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 12,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market is 18.78 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 24.24 dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio on the disk is 1.088, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots is - 2,594.3 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc has turned net short, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also decreased, indicating a bearish view from the position perspective [69].

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 进入旺季需求检验时点 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/09/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 月度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算8月全球铁矿石发运周均值3277.54万吨，环比+204.54万吨；8月，澳洲发往中国周均值1462.02万吨，较上月变化+43.57万吨。 巴西发运量周均值892.78万吨，较上月变化+78.71万吨。45港到港量周均值2457.12万吨，较上月环比+17.70万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算8月国内日均铁水产量239.72万吨，较上月变化-1.54万吨。 ◆ 库存：8月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存13763.02万吨，较上月末变化+76.79万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值320.72万吨，较上月变 化+1.55万吨。钢厂进口铁矿石日耗周均值298.01万吨，较上月变化-2.40万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the macro sentiment improved, but it still couldn't stop the decline in styrene prices. With the decrease in the pure benzene - naphtha (BZN spread) and the increase in the profit of EB non - integrated plants, the overall valuation is moderately high. Under the situation of a wide supply of pure benzene, styrene production has increased. Although the seasonal peak season is approaching and the downstream three - S production has rebounded slightly, due to the weak supply - demand situation, the inventory in factories and ports has increased significantly, with weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high this month, but styrene prices still fell [11]. - **Valuation**: Styrene showed a monthly decline (spot > futures > cost), with the basis weakening, the BZN spread weakening, and the profit of EB non - integrated plants weakening [11]. - **Cost**: The price of East China pure benzene fell by - 3.86% this month, and the pure benzene operation rate was moderately high. In July, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5078800 tons, a 43.24% increase from June and a 45.27% increase from last year, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate was 79.7%, a 2.53% increase from the previous month, a 14.84% increase from last year, and a 5.42% increase compared to the same period in the past five years. According to the production plan, there are fewer production plans in the third quarter and more maintenance in September, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Import and Export**: In July, the EB import volume was 221000 tons, a 0.26% increase from June and an 18.45% increase from last year. With the reduction of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the import volume has recovered [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operation rate of the downstream three - S was 42.73%, a - 2.53% decrease from the previous month; the PS operation rate was 61.00%, a 1.84% increase from the previous month and an 18.24% increase from last year; the EPS operation rate was 52.52%, a - 9.98% decrease from the previous month and a - 4.73% decrease from last year; the ABS operation rate was 69.00%, a - 2.54% decrease from the previous month and a 10.58% increase from last year. As the seasonal peak season approaches, the operation rate will fluctuate and rise at a low level [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory EB inventory was 214900 tons, a 1.61% increase in inventory from the previous month and a 28.62% increase compared to the same period last year; the EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 196500 tons, a 23.58% increase in inventory from the previous month and a 568.37% increase compared to the same period last year. The significant increase in port inventory has severely suppressed the futures price [11]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: For styrene (EB2510), the reference fluctuation range is (6900 - 7200) [11]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread is oscillating at the bottom. Multiple charts show the historical data of styrene spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, spreads between different contracts, trading volume, and open interest, etc. [17][19][24] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory [33][35]. - **Profit**: Styrene profit has declined. The production process of styrene is mainly the ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method (85%), followed by the PO/SM co - production method (12%) and the C8 extraction method (3%). The top ten styrene production enterprises account for 44% of the total production capacity [40][42][46] 3.4 Cost - **Production Plan**: The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 228, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 311. There is a supply - demand gap throughout the year, especially in the fourth quarter [50]. - **Spread and Profit**: The BZN spread continues to oscillate downward, and the pure benzene import profit chart shows historical data [60]. - **Operation Rate**: The pure benzene operation rate is moderately high, and charts show the operation rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated pure benzene [67]. - **Downstream Inventory**: The in - factory inventory of caprolactam is oscillating at a high level. The demand for pure benzene downstream is mainly for styrene (41%), caprolactam (18%), phenol (16%), aniline (13%), adipic acid (7%), and others (5%) [86][90] 3.5 Supply - **Production Plan**: In 2025, the total planned production capacity of styrene is 242, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 419.8. There is a supply - demand gap throughout the year, especially in the fourth quarter, which may support prices [100]. - **Production and Trade**: Styrene plants have started to restart, and the production volume is at a high level in the same period. Charts show the daily production volume, export volume, weekly operation rate, and import volume of styrene [109][111] 3.6 Demand - **Downstream Operation and Profit**: The operation rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have rebounded with profit. Charts show the operation rates, production profits, and inventories of EPS, PS, and ABS. The downstream demand for styrene is mainly for PS (35%, used in food packaging, daily necessities, electronic casings, etc.), EPS (21%, used in building insulation materials, shock - proof packaging), and ABS (15%, used in household appliance casings, auto parts, toys) [119][123][127][137] - **Home Appliance Production and Sales**: The production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners has different trends. The production of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate [138][146][150]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Entering September, China's refined copper production is expected to decline. Coupled with the expected decrease in recycled copper substitution and the seasonal recovery of demand, the copper supply is relatively balanced. Overseas demand is expected to improve, but there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation. The market has already anticipated the Fed's interest rate cut. The focus is on its attitude towards subsequent monetary policy. If it remains dovish, it will further boost market sentiment. Overall, the decline in domestic copper production and the seasonal improvement in consumption will provide strong support for copper prices. If the Fed continues to be dovish, copper prices are expected to rise. If the Fed's stance is neutral, the increase in copper prices is expected to be weaker. This month, the operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 77,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M copper is expected to be between 9,600 - 10,400 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the marginal supply of domestic crude copper has tightened. The production of domestic refined copper has declined, and the decline is expected to widen in September [9]. - Demand: In August, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have continued to grow. In September, with the higher base, the apparent consumption is expected to decline. The overseas manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the short - term demand is expected to be okay [9]. - Import and Export: In August, the import window for SHFE copper opened, and the estimated import volume increased [9]. - Inventory: In August, the inventories of SHFE, LME, COMEX, and bonded areas all increased. It is estimated that there will still be some pressure for inventory accumulation overseas in September [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: In August, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main SHFE copper contract rose 1.76% and the LME 3M copper contract rose 3.11%. The upward resonance of the global equity market and the increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut were the main reasons for the rise in copper prices. The US dollar index fell 2.16%, and the offshore RMB appreciated 1.22% [17]. - Market Spreads: In August, the inventory in the London market continued to increase, and the spot was relatively loose. The SHFE copper trend was stronger than that of LME copper, and the import window opened once. The COMEX - LME copper spread maintained a range - bound operation [20]. - Inventory & Basis: As of the end of August, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 574,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the beginning of August. The LME copper inventory continued to increase slightly, and the increase slowed down recently. The total COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, increasing by about 18,000 tons in August. In terms of the basis, the increase in LME inventory pushed Cash/3M to maintain a discount, and the discount narrowed at the beginning of September. In China, the basis remained firm due to the tight supply of scrap copper, reporting about 180 yuan/ton at the beginning of September [23][26]. - Fund Sentiment: As of the end of August, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 12%. The LME investment fund's long - position ratio declined, and the sentiment was still cautious. In September, the impact on market sentiment is expected to come from the Fed's monetary policy path, inventory changes, etc. [29] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - Copper Ore: In July, Chile's copper ore production rebounded month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level. In June, Peru's copper ore production increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Recently, there has still been some interference in overseas copper ore supply, but the impact has weakened marginally. In August, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply at ports was marginally loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates first rose and then fell in August, reporting - 41.5 US dollars/ton at the end of August. The supply - demand relationship remained tight. In September, as domestic smelting maintenance is expected to increase, TC is expected to rise [34][37]. - Supply - Refined Copper: Since August, the processing fees for domestic crude copper and imported crude copper have fluctuated and declined. Recently, the adjustment of domestic recycled copper policies has led to a decrease in the production of crude copper and anode copper from scrap, and the supply has tightened marginally. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in mainstream domestic regions, has declined month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level, contributing positively to smelting revenue. In August, the smelter's operating rate remained high, and the production of domestic refined copper only declined slightly. In September, there will be more domestic copper smelting maintenance, and coupled with the decrease in the production of anode copper from scrap copper, the production of refined copper is expected to decline significantly (about 50,000 tons) [40][43]. - Supply - Recycled Copper: In August, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,070 yuan/ton, continuing to narrow month - on - month. The substitution advantage of scrap copper was at a relatively low level. In August, under the expectation of standardizing investment promotion in various regions, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises continued to decline. In September, the recycled copper policy will become clearer. Once the policy is implemented, it is expected to bring greater pressure to recycled copper enterprises. If upstream recycling enterprises do not adjust prices, the recycled copper rod will maintain a low operating rate [46]. - Demand - China: Assuming an increase in net imports in August, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.394 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative apparent consumption was about 10.747 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In August, the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in China rebounded, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line, indicating a marginal improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. In the first seven months of 2025, China's copper product output increased by about 9.4%. In August, the operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded slightly and is expected to continue to rise in September. In August, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises fluctuated, and the average operating rate was lower than the same period last year. In September, there was a marginal improvement. In August, the operating rate of domestic wire and cable enterprises increased and is expected to continue to rise in September. As of July, the raw material and finished - product inventories of copper product and wire and cable enterprises decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large. In July, the year - on - year investment in the power sector decreased, and the year - on - year increase in new photovoltaic installations decreased significantly, resulting in weak related demand. High - frequency data shows that in August, domestic real estate transaction data improved month - on - month, while the production schedule of home appliances in the real estate's back - end was relatively weak; automobile sales remained relatively strong [49][52][55][58][61][64]. - Demand - Overseas: In August, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies improved. According to ICSG data, in June 2025, the global refined copper consumption increased month - on - month and maintained year - on - year growth. From January to June, consumption increased by about 5.1% [68]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US employment data in July was weak, and the inflation data rebounded. In late August, the Fed Chairman's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting was dovish. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 - BP interest rate cut by the Fed at this month's interest rate meeting. However, the actual interest rate cut amplitude and path of the Fed are still uncertain, and its impact on the market may be greater. In August, the US dollar index was relatively weak and is currently in a downward trend; the US 10 - year inflation expectation fluctuated and is waiting for a further direction [72][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall outlook for sugar prices remains bearish, with the downward potential of domestic sugar prices depending on the external market. If Brazil's sugar production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may decline further, potentially leading to new lows for domestic sugar prices. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, making the trend of domestic sugar prices more uncertain [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - External market: In August, the raw sugar price fluctuated. As of August 29, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.34 cents per pound, down 0.01 cents per pound from the previous month, a decrease of 0.06%. The October - March spread of raw sugar remained volatile, at -0.64 cents per pound, down 0.01 cents per pound from the previous month. The October - March spread of London white sugar strengthened significantly, at $21.5 per ton, up $19.1 per ton from the previous month. The raw - white sugar spread strengthened to $132 per ton, up $25 per ton from the previous month [9]. - Domestic market: In August, the Zhengzhou sugar price declined. As of August 29, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,604 yuan per ton, down 51 yuan per ton from the previous month, a decrease of 0.9%. The spot price in Guangxi was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 80 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis strengthened to 326 yuan per ton, up 109 yuan per ton from the previous month. The January - May spread fluctuated at 37 yuan per ton, down 7 yuan per ton from the previous month. The profit from out - of - quota spot sugar imports fluctuated at 477 yuan per ton, down 75 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry News** - According to the latest UNICA data, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons or 8.17% compared to the same period last year. The sugar - making ratio was 55%, an increase of 5.85 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 3.61 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons or 15.96% compared to the same period last year. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi was 89.04%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year - on - year. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 260,200 tons, a decrease of 96,900 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 708,700 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons year - on - year. In Yunnan, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 86.09%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points year - on - year. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 130,900 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 336,400 tons, an increase of 70,700 tons year - on - year [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy** - Domestically, due to the increase in import supply, the poor sales and production data in the main producing areas in August, and the expected increase in production in Guangxi in the new crushing season. Internationally, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased significantly year - on - year in the first half of August. Both the domestic and international markets are bearish, and the overall view on sugar prices remains bearish. The downward potential depends on the external market. If Brazil's production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may decline further, and domestic sugar prices may reach new lows. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, and the trend of domestic sugar prices will be more complex [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - The data on August 29, 2025, showed that the basis was 326 yuan per ton, the January - May spread of Zhengzhou sugar was 37 yuan per ton, the production - sales area spread was -140 yuan per ton, the raw - white sugar spread was $132 per ton, the sugar - alcohol spread was 2.03 cents per pound, the in - quota cost for the October contract was 4,522 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost for the October contract was 5,643 yuan per ton. The multi - empty scores for basis, spread, production - sales area spread, raw - white sugar spread, sugar - alcohol spread, and cost were -0.5, -0.5, 0, +0.5, 0, and -0.5 respectively. The summary is that the probability of the continued decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices is relatively high [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - The recommended strategy is to short at high prices in a single - side trade, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of within 3 months, a core driving logic of high import supply pressure and expected production increase in the new crushing season, a recommended level of 3, and the first proposed time of August 16, 2025 [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including those for spot prices and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums, and sugar - alcohol ratios, which show the historical trends of various spreads over different time periods [17][20][25] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - The report provides charts on national sugar production, import volume (including sugar, syrup, and pre - mixed powder), sales volume, and industrial inventory, showing the historical data of these indicators over different time periods [41][44][49][52] 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions** - Charts show the historical trends of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [57] - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane, and cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil [60] - **Indian Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India [65] - **Thai Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand [68] - **Brazilian Shipment Volume** - Charts show the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar awaiting shipment at Brazilian ports [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August, lithium carbonate contracts have been significantly affected by sentiment. After supply disruptions in lithium mines such as Jianxiawo, lithium prices soared, with the main contract once reaching the 90,000 yuan mark. Recently, funds have rationally returned to the fundamentals, sentiment has continuously cooled, and the market has adjusted weakly. [11] - As the lithium - battery industry enters the traditional peak season, downstream demand has been released. Domestic lithium mica production has declined, the supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate has improved, and social inventories of lithium carbonate have continuously decreased. [11] - In the first week of September, the lithium - battery sector in the equity market performed strongly, and the optimistic sentiment may drive the lithium carbonate futures to stabilize and rebound. At the same time, the resource supply in regions such as Jiangxi, Qinghai, and Africa is unstable, and attention should be paid to the impact of industry news on the market. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot and Futures Market**: On September 5, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 73,657 yuan in the morning, down 4.44% week - on - week and up 5.5% compared to early August. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the GZFE was 74,260 yuan, down 3.78% within the week. [12] - **Supply**: On September 5, SMM's weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2% increase from the previous week. The estimated monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica dropped to around 10,000 tons, basically in line with the expectation of large - mine shutdowns. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene continued to reach new highs, compensating for the reduction in mica production. In August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a 4.6% increase from the previous month and a 39.5% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first eight months increased by 40.4% year - on - year. In July and August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volumes were 20,900 tons and 16,900 tons respectively, with exports to China being 13,600 tons and 13,000 tons, a 13% year - on - year decrease and a 6.9% year - on - year increase respectively. [12] - **Demand**: The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by domestic manufacturers in August were 1.3 million, a 24% year - on - year increase and a 10% month - on - month increase. From January to August this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 8.93 million, a 34% year - on - year increase. The combined production of domestic lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials has remained at a high level since March. As the traditional peak season for lithium batteries approaches, the growth of lithium - battery demand has accelerated. In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 7.7% month - on - month, and it is expected to reach a new high in September. [12] - **Inventory**: On September 5, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 140,092 tons, a decrease of 1,044 tons (- 0.7%) from the previous week. On September 4, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZFE were 34,948 tons, a 20.7% increase from the previous week. The early industrial hedging products were accelerating into the warehouse. [12] - **Cost**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On September 5, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, a 5.03% decrease from the previous week and a 14.09% increase compared to early August. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines in Africa has recently begun to ease. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [12] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The average discount price in the standard electric - carbon trading market of the exchange is about 50 yuan. The net short position of the main contract of lithium carbonate is about 100,000 lots. [23] - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 800 yuan. In September, the lithium carbonate futures declined, while the spot price of lithium hydroxide adjusted with a lag, resulting in an inverted price difference. [26] 3.3 Supply Side - On September 5, SMM's weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2% increase from the previous week. In August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a 4.6% increase from the previous month, a 39.5% increase year - on - year, and a 40.4% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first eight months. [31] - In August, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 53,330 tons, a 19.0% increase from the previous month, an 83.3% increase year - on - year, and a 71.1% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first eight months. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 13,700 tons, a 23.9% decrease from the previous month, and a 17.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first eight months. [34] - In August, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 11.5% month - on - month to 10,920 tons, with a 10.8% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August. Some salt lakes reduced production or shut down, and the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes showed a year - on - year decline during the peak season. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in August was 7,290 tons, a 14.3% month - on - month increase, and a 21.3% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August. [37] - In July 2025, China imported 13,845 tons of lithium carbonate, a 21.8% month - on - month decrease and a 42.7% year - on - year decrease. Among them, 8,584 tons were imported from Chile and 3,950 tons from Argentina. From January to July, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 132,000 tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 20,900 tons, a 43% month - on - month increase and a 4% year - on - year increase. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% month - on - month increase and a 13% year - on - year decrease. In August, Chile exported 16,903 tons of lithium carbonate, a 19.2% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 12,982 tons were exported to China, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease and a 6.9% year - on - year increase. [40] 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, its global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powder, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5%. [44] - In July 2025, the global sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 1.6 million, with a 25.1% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July. The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by domestic manufacturers in August were 1.3 million, a 24% year - on - year increase and a 10% month - on - month increase. From January to August this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 8.93 million, a 34% year - on - year increase. [47] - From January to July, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in Europe was 2.081 million, a 25.8% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the United States was 896,000, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. [50] - In July, the combined production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% month - on - month increase and a 44.3% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, a 57.5% cumulative year - on - year increase. [53] - In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% month - on - month. In August, the production of cathode materials increased by 7.7% month - on - month. [56] 3.5 Inventory - On September 5, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 140,092 tons, a decrease of 1,044 tons (- 0.7%) from the previous week. On September 4, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZFE were 34,948 tons, a 20.7% increase from the previous week. [63] - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to export rush. [66] 3.6 Cost Side - The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On September 5, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, a 5.03% decrease from the previous week and a 14.09% increase compared to early August. [74] - In July, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 576,000 tons, a 4.8% year - on - year increase and a 34.7% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 3.38 million tons, a 0.6% cumulative year - on - year increase. From January to July, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 7.3% year - on - year, and the import from Africa decreased by 13.7% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines in Africa has recently begun to ease. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic tin prices fluctuated strongly. The main reasons were the positive macro - atmosphere and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, which led to high ore prices and pushed up the center of tin prices. - On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar was slow. The shortage of tin mines in Yunnan was still severe, with smelters' raw material inventory generally less than 30 days and low operating rates. Some smelting enterprises planned to conduct maintenance in September, further suppressing production. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises maintained normal production, but the shortage of crude tin supply made it difficult to increase refined tin production. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - On the demand side, it was the off - season for downstream consumption. Traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, the scale was still low, having limited impact on overall demand. The spot trading of tin was light due to weak terminal demand. - Overall, although the off - season consumption on the demand side was a bit weak, the short - term decline in supply was obvious. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate mainly. [12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost end: Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar have been approved, the resumption progress is slow. It is expected that the tin ore supply will not significantly recover until the fourth quarter. In July, the domestic tin ore import volume was 10,200 tons (equivalent to about 4,335 metal tons), a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, 688 metal tons less than in June. - Supply end: The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the shortage of tin mines in Yunnan led to low smelter operating rates. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - Demand end: The consumption of electronic products such as smartphones and tablets was sluggish. The growth of emerging industries such as servers and AI glasses was fast but the scale was low, having limited impact on tin solder demand. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, the component production decreased, leading to a significant decline in the demand for photovoltaic solder strips. The demand for tin in areas such as tin - plated sheets and chemicals was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises generally had low inventory levels and mainly purchased on - demand at low prices. [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content is provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented. [19] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level. [27] 3.4 Supply End - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow. Yunnan has a severe shortage of tin mines, and smelters' raw material inventory is generally less than 30 days. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in Jiangxi is difficult to increase due to the shortage of crude tin supply. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. [12] 3.5 Demand End - Semiconductor: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. - Electronics: In the second quarter of 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption continued to be sluggish, and it is predicted that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated the growth of consumer electronics to some extent, but the demand recovery was limited. - Automobile: In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year. - Home appliances: No overall summary is provided, but data on the production of various home appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs are presented. - Photovoltaic: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation volume growing by nearly 100% year - on - year. After the end of the rush - installation in June, the installation volume declined significantly. - Other: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year. [46][49][55] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance A supply - demand balance table from January 2023 to June 2025 is provided, including data on refined tin production, export, import, social inventory, social inventory change, and apparent consumption. [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the rising expectation of interest rate cuts may drive the overall strength of non - ferrous metals including nickel. Although the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, in the medium and long term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will strongly support nickel prices. The new - year RKAB approval also potentially benefits nickel prices, limiting the downside space. In the short term, the traditional peak season expectation of stainless steel in "Golden September and Silver October" is hard to be falsified, which may support nickel - iron prices. If the macro - interest - rate - cut narrative strengthens, there may be a phased restocking cycle leading to a stronger nickel - price market. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips in the future. The price range of the main SHFE nickel contract in September is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M contract is expected to be 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices are stable. In the Philippines, mines are strongly inclined to hold prices, and ferrous - nickel prices are rising this week, so iron plants can accept the ore prices. In Indonesia, the Halmahera region is still affected by the rainy season, but the weather in Sulawesi Island has improved. Overall, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is sufficient, and downstream smelters do not face raw - material shortages. In the future, although the short - term ore supply is abundant, ore prices are expected to remain stable under the background of the firm - to - rising nickel - iron prices [11]. - **Nickel - iron**: In terms of supply, the profit losses of domestic iron plants have been repaired but are still in the red, and the supply increase is limited. In the spot market, suppliers' quotes are firm, and low - price resources are scarce. On the demand side, the stainless - steel futures prices have stabilized this week, inventories have slightly decreased, market activity has increased, and with the approaching traditional consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October", stainless - steel plants are expected to increase production in September, supporting the demand for nickel - iron. Overall, nickel - iron prices are expected to continue to be firm - to - rising in the short term [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The spot inventory on the supply side is in short supply. Some traders have stopped quoting due to exhausted available goods, while some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers on the demand side still have purchasing needs, supporting the prices. Generally, the market - circulating spot of intermediate products is tight. Meanwhile, as a key auxiliary material for MHP, the price of sulfur has been rising recently, increasing the MHP cost. Driven by cost and supply - demand factors, the prices of intermediate products are expected to continue to strengthen [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate. At the macro level, the September Fed interest - rate meeting is approaching, and the market has high expectations for interest - rate cuts in September and later, making the non - ferrous metals sector perform strongly. In the spot market, the downstream purchasing power is average, inventories have not significantly increased, and the spot premium and discount are fluctuating [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price changes**: The spot price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 250 yuan/ton to 123,010 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian nickel rose by 420 yuan/ton to 121,340 yuan/ton. The LME closing price decreased by 27 US dollars to 15,236 US dollars, and the SHFE closing price dropped by 140 yuan to 120,850 yuan. The spot price ratio increased by 0.09 to 8.06, and the import profit - loss improved from - 6.20% to - 4.80%. The Russian - nickel premium remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel premium decreased by 3.8 US dollars/ton [15]. - **Position and inventory changes**: The LME position decreased by 0.68 million lots to 32.91 million lots, and the SHFE position increased by 0.31 million lots to 20.69 million lots. The LME inventory increased by 0.56 million tons to 21.53 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 2.64 million tons, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 0.51 million tons, the nickel - plate spot inventory decreased by 0.14 million tons to 3.51 million tons, and the nickel - bean spot inventory remained unchanged at 0.26 million tons [15]. - **Other price information**: In August, nickel - iron prices rebounded from the bottom. On September 4, the domestic high - nickel pig - iron ex - factory price was 938 - 953 yuan/nickel point, with the average price up 30 yuan/nickel point from the same period last month. In August, nickel - sulfate prices were firm - to - rising. On September 4, the domestic nickel - sulfate spot price was 27,770 - 27,970 yuan/ton, with the average price up 490 yuan/ton from the same period last month [24]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Domestic port inventories continued to increase. As of September 5, the nickel - ore port inventory was 13.0823 million tons, a 3.8% increase from the same period last week. Nickel - ore prices were stable. On September 4, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was 52.2 US dollars/wet ton, basically unchanged from the same period last month; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade ore was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.3 US dollars/wet ton from last month; the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine - produced nickel ore was 57 US dollars/wet ton, the same as last week [31][34]. - **Nickel - iron**: In July, Indonesia's MHP production was 40,000 nickel tons, and high - grade nickel matte production was 25,000 nickel tons, both basically unchanged from the previous month [41]. - **Intermediate products**: As of August 29, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 13,097 US dollars/metal ton, and the MHP coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.87, up 0.05 from last month; the high - grade nickel matte was 13,391 US dollars/metal ton, and the coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.9, up 0.05 from last month [46]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In July 2025, the national refined - nickel production reached 36,000 tons, remaining at a historically high level [51]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - change data was provided, but it is related to stainless - steel production, manufacturing, and real - estate industries [53][55]. - **Import and export**: No specific import - export data was provided, but the import - profit - loss situation was presented in the graph [57]. - **Inventory**: In August, the global refined - nickel inventory slightly increased. According to Mysteel data, on September 4, the domestic + LME visible inventory was 247,000 tons, a slight increase of 840 tons from the same period last month [60]. - **Cost**: No specific cost data was provided, but the production - cost and profit - rate graphs of different raw materials and processes were presented [62]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No specific supply - change data was provided, but the production and net - import graphs were presented [67]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - change data was provided, but the demand is related to ternary power - battery loading and ternary precursor production [70]. - **Cost and price**: No specific cost - and - price data was provided, but the cost, price, and profit - rate graphs of different processes were presented [72]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Historical data**: In 2023, the total demand was 3.23 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.3129 million nickel tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 82,900 nickel tons. In 2024, the total demand was 3.37 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.3972 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 27,200 nickel tons [77]. - **Forecast data**: In 2025, it is expected that the total demand will be 3.6024 million nickel tons, and the total supply will be 3.7688 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 166,400 nickel tons [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the central price of oils and fats [11]. - Oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand, with a tight expectation. They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas appears [11]. - Given the current high valuation, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the three major oils and fats first rose and then fell. The market pre - traded the expectation of tight supply - demand in Indonesia, boosted by events such as Indonesia's confiscation of plantations and China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, due to factors like commodity price corrections, high profits of major oils, and sufficient actual supply, the overall price of oils and fats declined. The net long positions of foreign capital seats that were long in August also decreased significantly [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA August monthly report maintained that the U.S. will increase industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India imported about 1.6 million tons of vegetable oils in August, and its inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. New rapeseed crops show a pattern of increased production [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: In August, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak, and the spot basis declined. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly from a high level, the palm oil inventory will remain stable, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats will remain high in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should consider the market as bullish. For now, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the basis and basis seasonality charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil's 01 contracts, including the basis between FCPOV25.MDE and FOB palm oil (Malaysia), and the basis between domestic spot prices and futures prices [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - **Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [27][28][29][30]. - **Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, the NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate [32][33]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [39][42][44][47]. - **Profit Charts**: Charts show the import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the average crushing profit of coastal rapeseed, and the POGO and BOHO spreads related to bio - diesel profits [42][44][58]. 5. Cost Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [49][50]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China [53]. 6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [56]. - **Bio - diesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [58].