黑色建材日报 2026-01-22 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪回升，成材价格继续在底部区间内弱势震荡。消息面方面，1 月 18 日包钢板材厂炼 钢作业部蒸汽球罐发生爆炸事故，预计停产约 3 个月。事件发生后，钢铁行业或将启动新一轮安全生产全 面检查，短期内部分地区钢厂开工率存在下滑可能，阶段性供给收缩预期有所升温，对热轧卷板等品种价 格形成一定支撑。基本面方面，热轧卷板产量小幅回升，表观需求延续改善，但在高库存背景下，去化节 奏仍相对偏慢；螺纹钢方面，表观需求回升幅度较为明显，产量维持中性水平，库存基本持平，整体供需 表现偏中性。综合来看，商品市场情绪小幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the precious metals market has cooled down due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and tariff expectations. The copper market is expected to experience short - term shock adjustments due to tight copper ore supply, relatively strong LME spot, and relatively surplus refined copper supply. The aluminum market has support in the short - term due to high US aluminum spot premiums, low LME aluminum inventories, and expected improvement in demand. The casting aluminum alloy is expected to be in shock consolidation due to strong cost support and general demand. The lead and zinc markets will follow the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector to give back some gains, but the non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term. The tin market may fluctuate due to marginal improvement in supply and demand and short - term inventory accumulation. The nickel market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The lithium carbonate market has a rebound, but there are risks of correction. The alumina market is recommended to wait and see due to over - capacity and cost support decline. The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [3][6][9][11][14][17][19][23][26][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper followed the precious metals to rise and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 0.27% to $12,761/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,420 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 3,100 tons to 159,400 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 tons to 146,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to the futures, and the import of refined copper was at a loss. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed slightly [2]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term copper price is expected to be in shock adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - 13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum also followed the precious metals to rise and then fall. LME aluminum closed slightly down 0.03% to $3,117/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,100 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 15,000 hands to 714,000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 tons to 139,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 508,000 tons [5]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term aluminum price still has support. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,900 - 24,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - 3,150/ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy fluctuated. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.57% to 22,895 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 23,000 hands, and the trading volume was 12,100 hands. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.02 tons to 68,900 tons. The spread between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts widened. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price was flat, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 0.03 tons to 42,800 tons [9]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term price is expected to be in shock consolidation [9]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.63% to 17,121 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $19 to $2,039/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,875 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 225,600 tons. The national main market lead ingot social inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic View**: The lead price gave back some gains with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector. The non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.25% to 24,355 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $33 to $3,194/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,210 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 31,000 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 112,300 tons. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 112,100 tons [13]. - **Strategic View**: The zinc price gave back some gains with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector. The non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term, and the zinc price has a large room for a supplementary rise compared with copper and aluminum. The subsequent trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [14]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 21, the tin price continued to rebound, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 418,420 yuan/ton, up 4.2%. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally high and stable, but the supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term. The demand was suppressed by the sharp rise in prices, and the inventory increased [15][16]. - **Strategic View**: The tin price may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 380,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 53,000/ton [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 21, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 143,060 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. The spot premiums of different brands varied. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price rose significantly [18]. - **Strategic View**: The Shanghai nickel is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.91%. The LC2605 contract closed at 166,740 yuan, up 3.89% [21]. - **Strategic View**: The rebound of lithium carbonate continues, but there are risks of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 158,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 21, the alumina index rose 0.04% to 2,667 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased by 16,300 hands. The domestic spot was at a discount to the main contract, and the overseas FOB price decreased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 tons to 119,100 tons [25]. - **Strategic View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,600 - 2,750 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, up 2.61%. The position increased by 27,595 hands. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets rose, and the raw material prices were stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 2.13% [28][29]. - **Strategic View**: The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, and the price may be in a high - level shock pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,230 yuan/ton [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. - For methanol, considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. - For urea, with the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. - For rubber, with its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 2.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.52%, at 440.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.79%, to 2542.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 12.00 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, to 3090.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.09 million barrels to 7.07 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.50 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.69 million barrels to 8.77 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.82 million barrels to 18.33 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 9 yuan/ton, in Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10.00 yuan/ton to 2209 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 12 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: Considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 29 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1779 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy View**: With the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded in a volatile manner. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 125.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 tons [7][8]. - **Strategy View**: With its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 64 yuan to 4743 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (+ 4) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, flat month - on - month. Factory inventory was 31.1 tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 tons (+ 3) [12]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5675 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 7203 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.17 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons, and trader inventory remained unchanged [17]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 26 yuan to 7206 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 888 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 89.4%, down 1.5% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 80.6%, down 0.6% month - on - month. From mid - to early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 10 yuan to 5154 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5085 yuan. The PTA load was 76.9%, down 1.3% month - on - month. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4 tons [26]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 15 yuan to 3689 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 31 yuan to 3570 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: The current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30].

图 1：美国亨利枢纽天然气价格（Dollar/MMBtu） 专题报告 2026-01-22 天然气：价格 26 年趋于平稳，27 年大幅上升 报告要点： xushaozu@wkqh.cn 根据 EIA 预测，在年度趋势上，2026 年美国天然气价格或将相对平稳，随后在 2027 年随着市 场条件趋紧而上涨。预计亨利枢纽天然气现货价格今年将平均略低于 3.50 美元/百万英热单位， 较 2025 年下降 2%，然后在 2027 年大幅上涨，达到年均近 4.60 美元/百万英热单位以上。2027 年亨利枢纽现货价格上涨的原因是需求增长超过供应增长。美国液化天然气出口能力的扩大以 及电力行业天然气消耗量的增加推动了 2027 年需求的增长，导致库存量降至（2021-2025 年） 五年平均水平以下，并对价格构成上行动力。 徐绍祖 能化分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 0755-23982459 能源化工研究 | 天然气 月度美国亨利枢纽天然气现货价格 关于近期今年冬季的发展，EIA 已将 2026 年第一季度的亨利枢纽价格预测从上月的平均 4.35 美元/百万英热单位下调至 3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing season in February and the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. With the reduction of imported sugar supply in China and sugar prices at a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area in the new season and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to digest, so it's recommended to wait for a correction before going long [8]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish. Although China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices, it is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major negative for domestic rapeseed prices. With protein meal prices at previous lows and many negative news, short - term fluctuations will increase, so it's better to wait and see [12]. - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak with high production, low exports, and high inventory. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of Malaysian production, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. Short - term waiting is recommended [17]. - For eggs, in the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate within a limited range due to sufficient supply and the approaching seasonal price increase. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations but face uncertainties, so pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, in the short - term, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the large spread between fat and standard pigs leads to hoarding, supporting the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on far - end prices [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the May contract was 5144 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [2]. - As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from 13.044 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons in the previous week [2]. Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the sugar - crushing season in February. After the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. With the reduction of imported sugar supply in China and sugar prices at a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [3] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of CCIndex 3128B was 15,819 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton [5]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year [5]. - As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week but up 8.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year [5]. - The January USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast but an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast but an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year [7]. Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area in the new season and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to digest, so it's recommended to wait for a correction before going long [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2725 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day [10]. - In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase. Brazil supplied 82.32 million tons, a 10.3% year - on - year increase, and the US supplied 16.82 million tons, a 24% year - on - year decrease [11]. - As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 30.64 million tons. The US exported 1.22 million tons of soybeans to China that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 8.12 million tons [11]. - As of the week of January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week [11]. Strategy - The January USDA report is slightly bearish. Although China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices, it is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major negative for domestic rapeseed prices. With protein meal prices at previous lows and many negative news, short - term fluctuations will increase, so it's better to wait and see [12] Oils Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8044 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8832 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 8947 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.01% from the previous trading day [14]. - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% [14]. - As of the week of January 16, the domestic inventory of the three major oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week [14]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. Production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. Exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [16]. Strategy - The current fundamentals of palm oil are weak with high production, low exports, and high inventory. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of Malaysian production, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. Short - term waiting is recommended [17] Eggs Market Information - Most egg prices across the country remained stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main production areas remained at 3.65 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, and most traders were more confident in the future. The inventory at different levels varied, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. It is expected that most egg prices across the country will remain stable, with a few rising [19]. Strategy - In the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate within a limited range due to sufficient supply and the approaching seasonal price increase. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations but face uncertainties, so pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20] Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.28 yuan to 13.07 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.21 yuan to 12.81 yuan/kg. The demand in the south was insufficient to support the market, and the market transaction rate was poor. Pig farmers may continue to cut prices, and the pig price may decline. The temperature drop in the north may stimulate demand, and the room for further price decline may be limited. It is expected that the pig price will be stable in some areas and decline in others [22]. Strategy - In the short - term, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the large spread between fat and standard pigs leads to hoarding, supporting the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on far - end prices [23]

贵金属日报 2026-01-22 贵金属 贵金属研究 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 | 金银重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2026-01-21 2026-01-20 | | | 日度变化 日度涨跌幅 近一年历史分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX报告区间为: | 2026-01-21 2026-01-20 | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | | 美元/盎司 | #N/A | 4769.10 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | 成交量 | | 万手 | #N/A | 40.64 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | COMEX黄金 | 持仓量（CFTC最新报告期：周) 万手 | | 52.75 | 48.81 | 上涨 | 8.06% | 86.79% | | 库存 | | 吨 | 1124 | 1124 | 上涨 | 0.02% | 11.50% | | LBMA黄金 收盘价 | | 美元/盎司 | 4866.50 | 4747.80 | 上涨 | 2.50% | 9 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, in the double - wide cycle, the bullish sentiment of commodities continues, with the main focus on precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment [41]. - For black building materials, the prices of black series continue to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. - For energy and chemicals, different varieties have different trends, such as rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and some varieties have opportunities for long - term investment [51]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks, such as short - term support for the near - month contracts of live pigs and eggs, but medium - term pressure on some products [78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Policies include solving abnormal low - price problems in government procurement, supporting the real estate market, and promoting cross - border payment systems [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the long - term, and pay attention to the market rhythm in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Wednesday. Policies focus on urban renewal and real estate system construction. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 1227 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and foreign markets changed. The conflict over Greenland was alleviated, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper followed the trend of gold and fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount [10]. - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum fell slightly. The inventory of LME aluminum increased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Strategy**: The decline of aluminum price is limited, and it is still supported in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc fell. The inventory of zinc ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some zinc brands [14]. - **Strategy**: Zinc has room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead fell. The inventory of lead ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some lead brands [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead price may oscillate and adjust, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel fluctuated slightly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - **Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin rebounded. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were stable, and the inventory increased [20][21]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rebounded. The spot index and futures contract price increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The supply contraction expectation has not been falsified, but there is a callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina increased slightly. The inventory increased, and the overseas price decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range for the domestic contract [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel increased. The inventory decreased, and the raw material prices changed [26]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be strong, and the price may oscillate at a high level, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy oscillated. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume increased [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with strong cost support and general demand [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. The inventory and production of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The prices of steel products continue to oscillate in the bottom range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore fell. The inventory increased, and the supply and demand changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the price is supported in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's restocking and iron - water production rhythm [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [33][34]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The price of glass fell. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume changed [37]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is in a loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference price range for the main contract [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash fell. The inventory increased slightly, and the trading volume changed [39]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is in a weak - oscillating pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak, with a reference price range for the main contract [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [40]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and relevant factors, and there are opportunities for long - term investment [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand changed [44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate due to news disturbances, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by large factories [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon fell. The supply pressure is expected to ease [46]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. The supply and demand, inventory, and spot prices changed [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil increased. The inventory of refined oil products in ports changed [52]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on heavy - oil spreads and go long on crude oil at the shale - oil break - even cost range [53]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [54]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is low, and there is room for long - term investment due to geopolitical expectations [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [56]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profit on rallies [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [60]. - **Strategy**: There is room for upward valuation repair of styrene non - integrated profit, and it is recommended to go long on non - integrated profit before the first quarter [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. In the short - term, there is support from electricity prices and export rush, and in the medium - term, a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64][65]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound in the short - term, and valuation compression is expected in the medium - term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [67]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to long - term investment opportunities [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. There are long - term investment opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The supply pressure is reduced, and the price is supported by inventory reduction [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. There are opportunities for long - term investment in the PP5 - 9 spread [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs mainly declined. The consumption and supply situation is analyzed [77]. - **Strategy**: The short - term near - month contracts are supported, but the medium - term supply pressure is high [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [79]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts are strong in the short - term, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the long - term outlook for the far - end contracts is uncertain [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by policies and imports [81]. - **Strategy**: The prices of protein meals have fallen to the previous low, with many negative news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [82]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by production, consumption, and policies [83][84]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fell. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports and production in different countries [86][88]. - **Strategy**: After the negative impact of production increase is realized, there may be a rebound in international sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton oscillated. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports, production, and consumption [90][91]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, there is room for the cotton price to rise. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then go long [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, attention should be paid to market rhythm. For stock index futures, the strategy is to buy on dips. For Treasury bonds, the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter. For precious metals, there are medium - term bullish factors. For most commodities, the overall market sentiment is expected to be bullish, but there are short - term fluctuations and different supply - demand situations for each variety [4][7][9]. Summary by Categories 1. Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. The Ministry of Finance provides fiscal subsidies for technology - innovation loans, and the central bank offers re - loans. Spot silver has reached $95 per ounce, up 33% this year, and spot gold is up nearly 10%. Some违规 accounts on Xueqiu have been permanently banned [2]. - **Basis Point Ratios**: The basis point ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: In the long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, pay attention to market rhythm and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.51%, 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.04% respectively. The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy in 2026, and the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy is extended to the end of 2026. The central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum needs to be observed, and domestic demand depends on residents' income and policy support. The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates, and the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.98%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.56%. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported. Poland plans to buy 150 tons of gold, and the US - EU relationship is tense, which is beneficial to gold [8]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, the Fed may increase the easing amplitude, and it is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased, and copper prices fell. LME copper closed at $12,796 per ton, down 1.47%, and Shanghai copper closed at 99,930 yuan per ton [11]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of Trump's tariff on key minerals is weakening, and the market sentiment is cooling. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market risk preference weakened, and aluminum prices fell. LME aluminum closed at $3,118 per ton, down 1.48%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,775 yuan per ton [13]. - **Strategy**: Tensions between the US and Europe have weakened market sentiment, but high US aluminum premiums and low global LME aluminum inventory limit the downside of aluminum prices. The price is expected to be supported in the short term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 24,417 yuan per ton. LME zinc rose to $3,227 per ton. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of zinc ore and the import TC of zinc concentrate decreased slightly, and the zinc price has room to catch up compared with copper and aluminum. The zinc price is expected to follow the sector and may fluctuate [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index rose 0.25% to 17,228 yuan per ton. LME lead rose to $2,058 per ton. The social inventory of lead ingots increased [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand is improving marginally. The lead price may fluctuate with the sector [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 20, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.67% to 141,360 yuan per ton. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the production of refined nickel is expected to increase in January, the inventory has not reflected it. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 20, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.44% to 399,000 yuan per ton. The supply is limited by raw materials and high prices, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased [22]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, but the inventory increase may put pressure on the price. The tin price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose 5.52%. The import of carbonate lithium in December increased by 9% month - on - month and decreased by 14% year - on - year [23]. - **Strategy**: There are uncertainties in the lithium mine, and the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 20, the alumina index fell 2.21% to 2,666 yuan per ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import loss was reported. The futures inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Strategy**: The price of ore is expected to decline, and the alumina market has problems such as over - capacity and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract rose 0.28% to 14,345 yuan per ton. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the stainless steel market is expected to be strong in the short term, with the price fluctuating at a high level [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main contract AD2603 fell 0.55% to 22,765 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed, but the demand is general. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [30]. 3. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract fell 0.92% to 3,111 yuan per ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.69% to 3,276 yuan per ton. The inventory and spot price changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in a bottom - range shock. The safety inspection after the Baotou steel explosion may support the price of hot - rolled coils. The actual demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) fell 0.57% to 789.50 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [34]. - **Strategy**: The overseas iron ore shipment is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of steel mills and iron - water production [35][36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 20, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) fell 4.30% to 1,124 yuan per ton, and the coke main contract (J2605) fell 2.76% to 1,673.5 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [37]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but there are risks of short - term market sentiment shocks [39][40][41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the glass main contract fell 1.31% to 1,056 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [42]. - **Strategy**: The glass market sentiment is weakening. The supply is low, and the demand is light. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [43]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the soda ash main contract fell 1.26% to 1,177 yuan per ton. The inventory increased slightly, and the positions of long and short changed [44]. - **Strategy**: Affected by the glass market, the soda ash market is weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fell 0.83% to 5,760 yuan per ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) rose 0.07% to 5,552 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [45]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of manganese silicon is loose, while that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Future market drivers may come from the overall market sentiment and cost factors [47][48]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) fell 1.13% to 8,745 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [49]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weakening. The price may fluctuate due to news [50]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) rose 0.39% to 50,700 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [52]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure of polysilicon is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate increased, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [55][56]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price is expected to continue to fall after consolidation. It is recommended to short on the break of 16,000 for RU2605 and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures fell 1.27% to 437 yuan per barrel. The inventories of related refined products and crude oil increased [59]. - **Strategy**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to rise [60]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of methanol changed, and the main futures contract changed [61]. - **Strategy**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and there is a chance of improvement in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips [62]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of urea changed, and the main futures contract changed [63][64]. - **Strategy**: The import window of urea has opened, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [65]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene was stable, the spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell. The supply - demand and profit indicators changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is low, and there is room for valuation repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [67]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose to 4,807 yuan. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term electricity price and export incentives may support the price, but it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [69]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell to 3,661 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of rebound and compress the valuation in the medium term [71]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose to 5,144 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [73]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose to 7,232 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. There is a chance to go long on dips following the crude oil price after the Spring Festival [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The main contract of PE fell to 6,640 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may bottom out, and the PE valuation has downward space. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may be supported [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The main contract of PP fell to 6,461 yuan. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [79][80]. 5. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price generally fell, and the market demand was weak [82]. - **Strategy**: Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the short - term price may be strong. However, the medium - term supply pressure is large, and the price may be under pressure [83]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, and the supply and demand were normal [84]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has increased during the pre - holiday stocking period, and the near - month contract may fluctuate strongly. The long - term outlook is positive, but there are uncertainties [85]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the spot price of rapeseed meal increased. The import, supply, and demand data of soybeans and rapeseed are reported [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The USDA report is slightly negative, and China's purchase of US soybeans and potential reduction of Canadian rapeseed import tariffs are negative for domestic meal prices. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly [88]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price rebounded. The domestic three - major oil inventories decreased, and the supply - demand data of palm oil and other oils are reported [89][90]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamental situation of oils and fats is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The spot price of sugar decreased, and the import and production data are reported [92][93]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar - making season ends. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the import, supply, and demand data are reported [95][96]. - **Strategy**: In the medium -

专题报告 2026-01-21 棉花：耐心等待回调做多机会 杨泽元 报告要点： 下年度新疆棉花种植面积调减的预期，是郑棉期货从去年 12 月至今上涨的主要驱动因素。另 一方面，2025 年 11 月以后产业链下游开机率同比增加也是价格上涨的驱动因素之一。从中长 期来看，新年度种植面积调减，叠加未来宏观预期向好，棉价仍有上涨的空间，但由于短期涨 幅过大，需要时间消化，等待回调再择机做多。 农产品研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 农产品研究 | 棉花 种植面积调减预期叠加淡季不淡，推动棉价上涨 2025 年 12 月 23 日，新疆自治区棉花产业发展领导小组召开调减新疆棉花种植面积专题会议。 下年度新疆棉花种植面积调减的预期，是郑棉期货从去年 12 月至今上涨的主要驱动因素。新 疆棉花种植补贴首次是在 2014 年开始实施，目标价格定为 19800 元/吨。从 2017 年开始，补 贴目标价格下调为 18600 元/吨。目前新疆棉花目标价格水平为每吨 18600 元，并固定产量 510 万吨进行补贴。这项补贴措施在 ...

贵金属日报 2026-01-21 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.98 %，报 1074.20 元/克，沪银跌 0.56 %，报 23027.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4769.10 美元/盎司，COMEX银报94.46 美元/盎司；美国10年期国债收益率报4.3%，美元指数报98.55 ； 昨日，波兰央行宣布了 150 吨的黄金购买计划，意在令其黄金总储备量上升至 700 吨。显示了 主权国家对于美元信用的担忧。同时，美国对于格陵兰岛的"接管行动"令欧洲国家与美国的 关系紧张，并有部分报道称欧盟将"抛售美债进行应对"。这显示了特朗普政府无序外交政策 对于美元信用的冲击，显著利好作为美债替代品的黄金。 【策略观点】 从中期来看，美联储后续降息的幅度，尤其是新联储主席在五月份上任以后的宽松幅度将较目 前而言大幅提升，特朗普政府对于鲍威尔的刑事调查以及基于宽松货币政策的联储主席任命均 会对联储独立性形成不可逆的影响，且印度白银在一季度仍具备较大的 ...