1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in this market condition [3] - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [3] - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial long - side seller strategy and a bull spread combination strategy of call options; for stock index options, it is suitable to construct a partial long - side seller strategy, a bull spread combination strategy of call options, and an arbitrage strategy of synthetic futures long and futures short [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,890.45, up 14.08 points or 0.36%, with a trading volume of 738.1 billion yuan and an increase of 33.2 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,140.21, up 86.24 points or 0.66%, with a trading volume of 987.8 billion yuan and an increase of 37.3 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,004.34, up 5.82 points or 0.19%, with a trading volume of 94.9 billion yuan and an increase of 12.2 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,568.18, up 15.39 points or 0.34%, with a trading volume of 371.6 billion yuan and a decrease of 10.5 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,169.55, up 68.72 points or 0.97%, with a trading volume of 292.7 billion yuan and an increase of 17.2 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,329.81, up 57.40 points or 0.79%, with a trading volume of 362.3 billion yuan and an increase of 13.4 billion yuan in trading volume [4] 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.078, up 0.014 or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 8.6607 million shares and an increase of 8.623 million shares, and a trading value of 2.665 billion yuan and an increase of 1.51 billion yuan [5] - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.688, up 0.020 or 0.43%, with a trading volume of 8.3179 million shares and an increase of 8.2501 million shares, and a trading value of 3.902 billion yuan and an increase of 0.732 billion yuan [5] - Other ETFs' closing prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and trading value changes are also provided in the report [5] 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - For different option varieties such as the Shanghai 50 ETF, Shanghai 300 ETF, etc., the trading volume, trading volume changes, open interest, open interest changes, volume PCR, volume PCR changes, position PCR, and position PCR changes are presented [6] 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - For each option variety, the underlying closing price, at - the - money strike price, pressure point, pressure point deviation, support point, support point deviation, maximum long position of call options, and maximum long position of put options are given [8] 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of different option varieties are provided [11] 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Different sectors include corresponding option varieties [13] - **Shanghai 50ETF**: The underlying shows a volatile consolidation pattern. The implied volatility is at a relatively low level, the position PCR is around 1.00. The pressure level is 3.20 and the support level is 3.10. Suggested strategies include a neutral - biased seller combination strategy, a spot long - covered call strategy [14] - **Shanghai 300ETF**: The underlying shows a rebound after over - decline. The implied volatility is at a relatively low level, the position PCR is around 1.00. The pressure level is 4.80 and the support level is 4.60. Suggested strategies include a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options, a spot long - covered call strategy [14] - **Shanghai 500ETF**: The underlying shows a rebound and then a decline. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the position PCR is above 1.00. The pressure level is 7.50 and the support level is 7.00. Suggested strategies include a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options, a spot long - covered call strategy [15] - **Shenzhen 100ETF**: The underlying shows a rebound and then a decline in a long - biased trend. The implied volatility fluctuates around the average, the position PCR is above 1.00. The pressure level is 3.40 and the support level is 3.30. Suggested strategies include a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options, a spot long - covered call strategy [15] - **ChiNext ETF**: The underlying shows a bullish trend with high - level volatility. The implied volatility is at a high level, the position PCR is above 1.00. The pressure level is 3.20 and the support level is 3.00. Suggested strategies include a short - volatility strategy, a spot long - covered call strategy [16] - **CSI 1000**: The underlying shows a decline from a high level. The implied volatility fluctuates below the average, the position PCR is around 0.90. The pressure level is 7400 and the support level is 7000. Suggested strategies include a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options with dynamic adjustment of positions to keep the delta short [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on profits, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. There is an expectation of a rebound after the supply - demand relationship is repaired at the end of the year [6]. - For precious metals, with the release of overseas central bank monetary policy risks and the expectation of a loose monetary policy from the Fed, gold and silver prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range; aluminum is expected to oscillate and gradually rise; zinc may have an upward impulse in the short term but is expected to be weak in the medium term; lead is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short term; nickel is recommended to be observed in the short term; tin is expected to be affected by supply and demand and trade in a range; lithium carbonate is recommended to be observed due to uncertainty in supply recovery; alumina is recommended to be observed due to cost and supply factors; stainless steel is expected to continue to build a bottom in a range; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to trade in a range [11][13][16][17][19][21][22][24][25][27]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Iron ore prices are expected to trade in a range. Glass is expected to trade in a narrow range, and soda ash is recommended to consider short positions. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are expected to be affected by the black sector and their own fundamentals. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to follow the market with some uncertainties [30][32][34][35][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber is recommended for short - term operations. Crude oil is recommended to wait and see. Methanol is recommended to be observed. Urea is recommended to go long on dips. Pure benzene and styrene can be considered for long - position operations on non - integrated profits. PVC is recommended to go short on rallies. Ethylene glycol needs to guard against the risk of a rebound. PTA can be considered for long - position operations on dips. Para - xylene can be considered for long - position operations on dips. Polyethylene can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips. Polypropylene is expected to be supported by a change in the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [49][51][53][56][58][61][63][65][67][69][71]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to short after a consumption - driven rebound in the near term and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far term. For eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies in the near term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far term. For soybean and rapeseed meal, prices are expected to oscillate. For oils and fats, short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended. For sugar, short - term observation is recommended. For cotton, it is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [74][76][79][81][84][87]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Internet Information Office and the CSRC are cracking down on false information in the capital market. The National Healthcare Security Administration includes AI - assisted diagnosis in the price composition of pathological diagnosis. The Ministry of Commerce aims to boost consumption. Chinese scientists have made a breakthrough in optical computing chips [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Index Futures**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific basis ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed. In November, the number of new foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net injection of funds [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. There is an expectation of a rebound after the supply - demand relationship is repaired at the end of the year [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. COMEX gold and silver prices are at certain levels. The Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike was less hawkish than expected, and the prices of gold and silver stabilized and rebounded. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs increased, and the silver lease rate rose slightly [7][8]. - **Strategy**: With the release of overseas central bank monetary policy risks and the expectation of a loose monetary policy from the Fed, gold and silver prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The Japanese interest - rate hike led to a rise in copper prices. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipt increased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [10]. - **Strategy**: The Fed's loose monetary policy and the easing of concerns about the US stock AI bubble are positive. However, the supply - demand situation restricts the upward movement of copper prices. It is expected to trade in a high - level range [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Overseas supply disturbances pushed up the price of LME aluminum. The position of the Shanghai aluminum contract increased, and the inventory situation changed. The domestic spot was at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Strategy**: With the decline in global aluminum inventory and positive external factors, the price of aluminum is well - supported. However, tariff and seasonal factors pose pressure. It is expected to oscillate and gradually rise [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The inventory and basis of zinc in different markets changed [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The LME zinc inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory decreased. The price is expected to be weak in the medium term but may have an upward impulse in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead index rose. The inventory and basis of lead in different markets changed [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of domestic lead ingots is expected to tighten, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. The spot premium and cost of nickel remained stable, while the price of nickel iron declined slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. It is recommended to observe in the short term [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi faced different problems, and the demand was affected by high prices [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are both weak. The price is expected to follow the market with some uncertainties [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The price of lithium concentrate decreased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply recovery expectation was falsified. It is recommended to observe due to the uncertainty of the mid - term fundamentals [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of the alumina index decreased. The domestic spot was at a premium to the futures, and the overseas price remained stable [23]. - **Strategy**: With the recovery of ore supply and over - capacity in the smelting end, it is recommended to observe due to cost and supply factors [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of the stainless - steel contract rose. The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: The spot market is inactive, and the price is expected to continue to build a bottom in a range [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast - aluminum alloy contract rose. The position and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy**: With a strong cost and supply disturbances, but weak demand and delivery pressure, the price is expected to trade in a range [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt and position of the contracts changed. The spot prices in different regions remained stable or decreased slightly [29]. - **Strategy**: Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils is relatively high. Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. The export license policy may have a short - term impact [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of the iron - ore contract rose slightly. The spot price and basis changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The port inventory is increasing, and the steel - mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to trade in a range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of the glass contract decreased. The inventory increased, and the positions of long and short decreased. The price of the soda - ash contract decreased. The inventory increased, and the positions of long and short decreased [33][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for glass is weak, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range. The demand for soda ash is weak, and it is recommended to consider short positions [34][35]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron contracts rose. The spot prices increased, and the basis changed [36]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to be affected by the black sector and their own fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of silicon - iron [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of the industrial - silicon contract rose. The spot price remained stable, and the basis changed. The price of the polysilicon contract rose. The spot price remained stable, and the basis changed [39][41]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to follow the market with some uncertainties. The price of polysilicon is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [40][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillated weakly. The开工 rate of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory increased [45][47]. - **Strategy**: A neutral approach is recommended for short - term operations. A hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [49]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of the INE crude - oil contract decreased. The inventory of refined oil products changed [50]. - **Strategy**: A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [51]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed. The MTO profit decreased [52]. - **Strategy**: After the realization of positive factors, the market is in a short - term consolidation. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to observe [53]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed. The basis decreased [54][55]. - **Strategy**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. The price is expected to build a bottom in a range. It is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply and demand indicators also changed [57]. - **Strategy**: It is possible to go long on non - integrated profits of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of the PVC contract decreased. The spot price, basis, and cost changed. The开工 rate and inventory also changed [59]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of the ethylene - glycol contract decreased. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is increasing. It is necessary to guard against the risk of a rebound [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of the PTA contract increased. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is in high - level maintenance, and the demand is affected by the off - season. It is recommended to consider long - position operations on dips [65]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of the para - xylene contract increased. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long - position operations on dips [67]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The price of the polyethylene contract decreased. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be supported by a change in the cost - supply pattern. It can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [69]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The price of the polypropylene contract decreased. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to be supported by a change in the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs decreased. The supply is expected to be sufficient, and the demand may decline slightly [73]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short after a consumption - driven rebound in the near term and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far term [74]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs remained stable with a slight decline in some areas. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is general [75]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far term [76]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans decreased. The domestic spot price of soybean meal changed slightly. The supply and demand indicators changed [77][78]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate due to cost support and pressure on crushing margins [79]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The price of domestic oils and fats decreased. The production and export data of Malaysian palm oil changed. The inventory and consumption data of Indian vegetable oils changed [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [81]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of the sugar contract decreased. The spot price decreased. The import and production data of sugar changed [82][83]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended due to the expected increase in global supply [84]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of the cotton contract increased slightly. The spot price increased. The import, production, and inventory data of cotton changed [85][86]. - **Strategy**: It is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [87].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Protein Meal**: With support from costs and pressured crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is support as the de - stocking season approaches [3][5]. - **Oils**: Palm oil prices are currently suppressed by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the current inventory build - up may reverse in Q1 next year due to seasonal factors. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7][9]. - **Sugar**: Newly estimated increases in production from major sugar - producing countries will shift the global supply - demand balance from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. With the continued opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, a bearish view is maintained, but short - term观望 is advised due to low domestic sugar prices [12][13]. - **Cotton**: Although the peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad, and the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest has been digested. Uncertainty over the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy has led to short - term capital inflows, but the likelihood of a unilateral trend is low due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure [16][18]. - **Eggs**: The futures market previously overestimated the peak - season inventory build - up, resulting in high premiums. In the near term, the futures market will likely squeeze out premiums, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. In the long term, although there is an expectation of capacity reduction, the overall supply decline is limited, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [19][20]. - **Pigs**: As consumption is set to increase, the spot market will drive the futures market to stabilize. However, the near - term rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rebounds after the consumption - driven rebound. In the long term, with the theme of capacity reduction and low valuations, it is advisable to consider reverse spreads or go long on distant contracts [22][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to slow US soybean sales and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fluctuated by 10 - 20 yuan/ton over the weekend. Last week, soybean meal trading volume decreased, and提货 also declined. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1306 million tons, slightly higher than last week's 2.1206 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.23, up 0.1 days from the previous week [3]. - **Weather**: Forecasts indicate above - normal rainfall in major Brazilian soybean - growing regions in the next two weeks, and normal rainfall in major Argentine regions, except for Buenos Aires Province, where rainfall is expected to be low [3]. - **Strategy**: With support from costs and pressured crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December but decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Shipments decreased by 15.89% - 16.37% in the first 15 days of December. As of December 1, 2025, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.623 million tons, and November's edible vegetable oil imports were 1.151 million tons, with both month - on - month and year - on - year consumption decreasing. On December 19, Indonesia announced the start of B50 biodiesel road tests, expected to last about six months, with the policy likely to be implemented in H2 2026 [7]. - **Strategy**: High palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia this year has suppressed prices. In the short term, poor export data and high - year - on - year production are driving prices down. However, the current inventory build - up may reverse in Q1 next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [9]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weak. The May contract closed at 5,088 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while processing plant prices remained stable. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In the second half of November, Brazil's central - southern region had a 21.08% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing and a 32.94% decrease in sugar production. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons [11][12]. - **Strategy**: With expected increases in production from major sugar - producing countries, the global sugar market will shift from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may lack upward momentum until Q1 next year. With the continued opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, a bearish view is maintained, but short - term观望 is advised due to low domestic sugar prices [13]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose slightly. The May contract closed at 14,015 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose 6 yuan/ton to 15,145 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 900,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons. As of December 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week and 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. The USDA's December report estimated the 2025/26 global cotton production at 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from November [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Although the peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad, and the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest has been digested. Uncertainty over the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy has led to short - term capital inflows, but the likelihood of a unilateral trend is low due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure [17][18]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mostly stable, with some areas slightly weaker. Egg supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is average. There is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices at the beginning of the week, but prices may rebound slightly later as the New Year approaches and traders may replenish inventory [19]. - **Strategy**: The futures market previously overestimated the peak - season inventory build - up, resulting in high premiums. In the near term, the futures market will likely squeeze out premiums, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. In the long term, although there is an expectation of capacity reduction, the overall supply decline is limited, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [20]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices trended lower. Some farms may increase supply at the end of the year, and demand may decline slightly after the Winter Solstice. However, after continuous price drops, farmers' resistance to selling has increased, and short - term prices may rise in the north and stabilize in the south [22]. - **Strategy**: As consumption is set to increase, the spot market will drive the futures market to stabilize. However, the near - term rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rebounds after the consumption - driven rebound. In the long term, with the theme of capacity reduction and low valuations, it is advisable to consider reverse spreads or go long on distant contracts [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the有色金属 market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, US economic data, and overseas supply disruptions. Different metals have varying price trends and influencing factors, and short - term price movements are expected to be affected by a combination of macro - factors and industry - specific fundamentals [4][7][10][12]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract rose 1.22% to $11,870/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract reached 93,560 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 3,875 tons to 160,400 tons. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 46,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,200 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose monetary policy and the easing of concerns about the US stock AI bubble have a positive impact on sentiment. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the annual long - term contract benchmark is slightly higher than expected. The apparent consumption of refined copper in November was lower than expected, increasing the resistance to upward price movement. However, with less scrap copper substitution, the supply surplus pressure is not large. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 92,000 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M copper is 11,600 - 12,200 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Overseas supply disruptions pushed LME aluminum up, with the Friday closing price rising 1.32% to $2,955/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract reaching 22,245 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 29,000 to 654,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 76,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Global aluminum inventories continue to decline and are at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. Coupled with overseas supply disruptions and a positive commodity atmosphere, aluminum prices are strongly supported. However, Mexico's increase in some aluminum tariffs and the off - season in the aluminum downstream industry pose pressure. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and accumulate momentum, with a rising center. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M aluminum is 2,900 - 2,980 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.55% to 16,879 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S lead rose $16.5 to $1,973.5/ton. The domestic social lead inventories decreased by 420 tons to 1,950 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, and the lead concentrate processing fee has remained flat. The operating rate of primary lead smelters has increased, while the operating rate of secondary lead has decreased marginally, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has remained stable. The domestic lead ingot supply has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory has remained relatively low. After the release of short - term macro - risks, the sentiment in the non - ferrous market is positive. The current lead price is at the lower end of the oscillation range, and it is expected to be strong in the wide - range in the short term [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.19% to 23,081 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S zinc rose $8.5 to $3,073/ton. The domestic social zinc inventories decreased by 350 tons to 12,220 tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased, and zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. The LME zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the LME zinc monthly spread has returned to a Contango structure. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has continued to decline, and the spot basis has increased. After the release of short - term macro - risks, the sentiment in the non - ferrous market is positive. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the medium term but may have an upward impulse in the short term due to macro - sentiment [12][13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 19, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 343,040 yuan/ton, up 2.59%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is high and stable but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin solder enterprises is stable, but the high tin price has suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading atmosphere is dull [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the downstream inventory is low, and the bargaining power is limited. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the nickel price rebounded significantly, with the SHFE nickel main contract closing at 117,180 yuan/ton, up 2.84%. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price weakened again [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. The nickel iron price has slightly declined, while the refined nickel price has dropped significantly. The refined nickel premium has reached the support level. It is necessary to wait for the nickel iron price to further decline to test the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical production line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of the SHFE nickel price is 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M nickel contract is 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 105,069 yuan, up 2.74% from the previous working day and 11.10% for the week [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply recovery expectation has been falsified, and the bears are under pressure. The mid - term fundamentals are controversial, but the optimistic expectation is stronger. The long - position trend on the futures market has not ended. The lithium carbonate position is still high, and the intraday price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate main contract is 108,600 - 117,200 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 19, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.51% to 2,568 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,655 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipping from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation is increasing. The overall non - ferrous sector is strong, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,720 yuan/ton, up 2.42%. The social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a 2.01% decrease from the previous period [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall trading atmosphere in the stainless - steel spot market is light, and the low - price warehouse receipt resources are actively traded, driving the continuous decline in social inventory. The market demand is mainly for rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the acceptance of high - price resources is generally low. In the short term, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out, with limited upward space [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy price continued to rise, with the main AD2602 contract closing at 21,235 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts slightly decreased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of the cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and the supply - side disruptions continue, providing strong support for the price. However, the demand is volatile, and the delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. The short - term price of the cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate within a range [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive on Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. The supply and demand of rebar both increased this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot-rolled coils decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom. Affected by the export license management, the prices of finished steel products are under short - term pressure, and they are expected to gradually digest the policy impact later. The willingness for winter stockpiling is not strong this year, and large - scale replenishment may not occur. The macro - level is still in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline, and the port inventory continued to increase while the steel mill's imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - The macro - sentiment fluctuations in the market have temporarily ended, and the atmosphere in the black chain index has clearly warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, and the supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the direction of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and the supply - contraction problem of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and possible emergencies in the manganese - ore segment [9][10]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon market has a weak balance between the upstream and downstream, and the futures price trend is expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [13][16]. - The glass market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation trend in the short term due to weak demand and limited production capacity contraction. The soda - ash market's rebound strength is limited, and short positions can be considered for timely layout [19][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel Products Rebar - **Market Data**: The trading volume was 84,173 tons, a decrease of 8,030 tons. The main - contract open interest was 1.568866 million lots, a decrease of 7,077 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3,170 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand both increased this week, and the inventory continued to decline, in line with off - season characteristics. The terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Affected by the export license management, the price is under short - term pressure [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 3,269 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%). The daily registered warehouse receipts were 103,404 tons, unchanged. The main - contract open interest was 1.191178 million lots, an increase of 1,622 lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3,270 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,270 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils is relatively prominent, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Data**: The main - contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 780.00 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.32% (+ 2.50), and the open interest increased by 16,750 lots to 534,900 lots. The weighted open - interest was 920,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 64.63 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.65% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipments continued to increase, the daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, the port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Data**: On December 19th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.48% at 5,808 yuan/ton. The spot - market quotation of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.86% at 5,640 yuan/ton. The spot - market quotation of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - sentiment fluctuations have ended, and the black chain index has warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trends are affected by the black sector, manganese - ore cost, and ferrosilicon supply contraction. Attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and manganese - ore emergencies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: The main - contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.52% (+ 45). The weighted - contract open interest decreased by 2,503 lots to 407,065 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 510 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 160 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Data**: The main - contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 60,245 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 1.59% (+ 945). The weighted - contract open interest decreased by 2,718 lots to 247,847 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.4 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 7,845 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a weak balance between the upstream and downstream, and the futures price trend is expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Data**: The main glass contract closed at 1,041 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.98% (- 21). The North China large - plate quotation was 1,030 yuan, unchanged; the Central China quotation was 1,080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, an increase of 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 26,289 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 28,730 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation trend in the short term [19]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.42% (- 17). The Shahe heavy - soda quotation was 1,130 yuan, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (+ 0.57%), including 771,700 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory (a decrease of 18,800 tons) and 727,600 tons of light - soda ash inventory (an increase of 23,800 tons). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,996 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 8,502 lots [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market's rebound strength is limited. Short positions can be considered for timely layout [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report for energy and chemical options dated December 22, 2025 [2] - The report covers various types of energy and chemical options, including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, and others [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, and ethylene glycol [4] Group 3: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report presents the volume and open interest PCR of different option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the underlying market [5] Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying are analyzed based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility of different option varieties, including at-the-money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility, and provides the historical average and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 4: Strategy and Recommendations Energy Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental analysis shows that the total US crude oil inventory decreased, while the strategic crude oil inventory increased slightly [8] - The crude oil market showed a weak trend, with large fluctuations and resistance at the upper level [8] - Option factor analysis indicates that the implied volatility of crude oil options is below the average, and the open interest PCR suggests a weak market [8] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options, a short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] Other Options (LPG, Methanol, etc.) - Similar analysis and strategy recommendations are provided for other option varieties, including fundamental analysis, market trend analysis, option factor research, and specific strategy suggestions [9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 5: Option Charts - The report includes various option charts for different varieties, such as price charts, volume and open interest charts, open interest distribution charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, and historical volatility cone charts [15][35][55][75][94][113][131][150][171][190][211][230][250][269][285][301][319]

专题报告 2025-12-22 橡胶：泰国供应二三事 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-23982459 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 数据推测，泰国砍伐橡胶去种植榴莲的面积和影响橡胶产量是比较小的，预计每年最多影响 的数量为 1-2 万公顷（1.3-2.6 万吨橡胶产量）。 按照每公顷橡胶林出口 80 立方米橡胶木锯材估算，2025 年中国进口泰国橡胶木锯材的数量预 计为 416 万立方米，推断橡胶种植面积减少为 5.2 万公顷，比 2024 年的 6.1 万公顷，砍伐橡 胶树积极性降低。砍伐橡胶树数据的减少，和泰国橡胶产量的增加，泰国橡胶出口量的增 加，方向完全一致，显示了经过 2024 年-2025 年的橡胶上涨之后，胶农种植橡胶树积极性上 升，割胶积极性上升，砍伐橡胶树意愿下降。 能源化工研究 | 橡胶 此次冲突主要在泰国乌汶府、四色菊府和素林府边境地区，根据业界估计，天然橡胶产量整 体约 25-30 万吨，占泰国全国总产量约 5-6%，占全球总产量的 1.7%。此次摩擦升级导致居民 撤离，胶厂被迫停工，割胶及生产工人均出现短缺。预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Option strategy reports are compiled for each option variety based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, a seller neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they are trending upwards. For black metals, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations. For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2602): The latest price is 93,560, up 840 (0.91%), with a trading volume of 17.27 million lots (up 1.27 million) and an open interest of 23.77 million lots (up 0.64 million) [3]. - Aluminum (AL2602): The latest price is 22,245, up 205 (0.93%), with a trading volume of 22.56 million lots (up 3.72 million) and an open interest of 31.51 million lots (up 2.09 million) [3]. - Zinc (ZN2602): The latest price is 23,090, up 70 (0.30%), with a trading volume of 8.84 million lots (up 0.20 million) and an open interest of 8.64 million lots (up 0.26 million) [3]. - Lead (PB2602): The latest price is 17,005, up 155 (0.92%), with a trading volume of 5.65 million lots (up 2.52 million) and an open interest of 6.22 million lots (up 0.65 million) [3]. - Nickel (NI2602): The latest price is 117,430, up 1,170 (1.01%), with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots (up 10.28 million) and an open interest of 9.41 million lots (up 0.17 million) [3]. - Tin (SN2602): The latest price is 341,220, up 1,400 (0.41%), with a trading volume of 18.49 million lots (up 3.75 million) and an open interest of 5.66 million lots (up 0.71 million) [3]. - Alumina (AO2602): The latest price is 2,528, down 10 (-0.39%), with a trading volume of 12.14 million lots (down 1.21 million) and an open interest of 21.88 million lots (up 0.84 million) [3]. - Gold (AU2602): The latest price is 984.58, up 4.34 (0.44%), with a trading volume of 32.89 million lots (up 8.78 million) and an open interest of 18.97 million lots (down 0.71 million) [3]. - Silver (AG2602): The latest price is 15,746, up 462 (3.02%), with a trading volume of 190.42 million lots (up 33.25 million) and an open interest of 33.75 million lots (down 2.59 million) [3]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2602): The latest price is 109,740, up 4,160 (3.94%), with a trading volume of 2.48 million lots (up 0.61 million) and an open interest of 3.46 million lots (up 0.21 million) [3]. - Industrial silicon (SI2602): The latest price is 8,665, up 45 (0.52%), with a trading volume of 2.23 million lots (down 1.27 million) and an open interest of 9.04 million lots (up 0.03 million) [3]. - Polysilicon (PS2602): The latest price is 60,680, down 355 (-0.58%), with a trading volume of 3.70 million lots (down 0.96 million) and an open interest of 3.57 million lots (up 0.13 million) [3]. - Rebar (RB2605): The latest price is 3,114, unchanged (0.00%), with a trading volume of 68.61 million lots (down 52.94 million) and an open interest of 156.89 million lots (down 0.71 million) [3]. - Iron ore (I2602): The latest price is 794.00, up 2.00 (0.25%), with a trading volume of 1.07 million lots (down 0.23 million) and an open interest of 7.25 million lots (down 0.08 million) [3]. - Manganese silicon (SM2602): The latest price is 5,792, up 14 (0.24%), with a trading volume of 2.24 million lots (up 0.73 million) and an open interest of 3.14 million lots (up 0.11 million) [3]. - Silicon iron (SF2602): The latest price is 5,512, up 36 (0.66%), with a trading volume of 9.35 million lots (up 1.24 million) and an open interest of 3.65 million lots (up 0.03 million) [3]. - Glass (FG2602): The latest price is 993, down 2 (-0.20%), with a trading volume of 2.87 million lots (down 1.84 million) and an open interest of 3.85 million lots (down 0.01 million) [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different metal options have different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Different metal options have different pressure and support levels, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Different metal options have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Construct a call option bull spread combination strategy for directional gains, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy for time - value gains, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum Options**: Build a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc Options**: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel Options**: Build a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin Options**: Construct a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Build a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. Precious Metals - **Silver Options**: Construct a call option bull spread combination strategy, a slightly bullish short - volatility option seller combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: Build a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Manganese Silicon Options**: Build a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon Options**: Construct a put option bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy of selling call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass Options**: Build a put option bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy of selling call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

日央行在货币政策声明中表示，工资和通胀水平很可能继续同步温和上升，将从可持续、稳定 实现 2%的通胀目标角度出发，适时实施货币政策。植田和男在会后并未就后续会议的进一步加 息进行明确表态，仍旧表示后续货币政策的支持步伐取决于当时的经济、价格和金融发展情况， 且会在每次会议中更新对于价格和经济前景的看法。从盘面上来看，美元兑日元汇率在议息会 议后出现较为明显的回升。 贵金属日报 2025-12-22 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.44 %，报 984.58 元/克，沪银涨 3.02 %，报 15746.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4379.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 67.80 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.16%，美元指数报 98.69 ； 上周五进行的日本央行议息会议中，日本央行虽加息 25 个基点将基准利率上调至 0.75%。但日 本央行的货币政策声明及植田和男会后的表态都不及预期鹰派，短期市场所担忧的流动性风险 有所释放，金银价格企稳回升。 从 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils showing a weak and volatile pattern, while other sectors maintain a volatile or slightly fluctuating market [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product options are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybeans (A2603) is 4,064, with a change of 3 and a trading volume of 2.36 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of various options are analyzed, which are mainly used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean options is 0.97, and the open - interest PCR is 1.02 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option are determined from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean options is 4,200, and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option is analyzed, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean options is 10.035% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean Options**: The uncertainty of China's demand for US soybeans and the expected Brazilian harvest in early 2026 put pressure on the soybean market. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The price of soybean meal may maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern. A similar neutral call + put option selling strategy and long collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Palm Oil Options**: High production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's inventory. A bear spread strategy for put options and a short - biased call + put option selling strategy are suggested, along with a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut Options**: The peanut market shows a short - term upward and then rapid decline pattern. A spot long + put option buying + out - of - the - money call option selling strategy is recommended [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Live Pig Options**: The live pig market is in a weak downward trend. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [10]. - **Egg Options**: The egg market is weak. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy is recommended [11]. - **Apple Options**: The apple market shows a warming - up and rising pattern. A long - biased call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [11]. - **Jujube Options**: The jujube market is in a weak and volatile pattern. A short wide - straddle option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar Options**: The sugar market is in a weak and bearish pattern. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [12]. - **Cotton Options**: The cotton market shows a short - term upward and then blocked pattern. A neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn Options**: The corn market shows a rebound and upward pattern. A neutral call + put option selling strategy is recommended [13].