Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. - The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance. [31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.40% decline, at 426.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.06 million barrels to 15.06 million barrels, a 0.43% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.07 million barrels to 8.43 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.40 million barrels to 24.66 million barrels, a 5.39% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 48.15 million barrels, a 2.57% decrease [8]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 38 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 25 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2148 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was reported at - 159 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The total basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 11 yuan/ton, reporting 1697 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been consolidating. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are at a low level, and the buying demand for winter storage is a bullish factor. The bulls believe in seasonal expectations and improved demand, while the bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy**: A neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 56 yuan, reporting 4652 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4400 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 252 (+ 26) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 129 (+ 1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period. The demand - side overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The factory inventory was 32.9 tons (- 1.6), and the social inventory was 105.7 tons (- 0.3) [12]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5394 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The basis was 98 yuan/ton, weakening by 67 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 129.12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated plant profit was - 406.75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.47 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%. The PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%, the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%, and the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6320 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The basis was 130 yuan/ton, strengthening by 96 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, a 0.92% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 tons, a 1.72 - ton increase from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 3.56 tons, a 0.20 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, narrowing by 9 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy**: Although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6213 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 62 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, a 1.66% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton increase from the previous week, the trader inventory was 19.83 tons, a 0.9 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the port inventory was 6.75 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 107 yuan/ton, narrowing by 90 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 208 yuan, reporting 7070 yuan. The PX CFR rose 26 dollars, reporting 866 dollars. The basis was - 28 yuan (unchanged), and the 3 - 5 spread was 54 yuan (+ 22). The PX operating rate in China was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, down 0.4%. In terms of plants, a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 55 - ton plant of South Korea's GS was under maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days of December were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 305 dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 dollars (+ 9) [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 134 yuan, reporting 4882 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 100 yuan, reporting 4750 yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 72 yuan (+ 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 91.2%, unchanged. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 tons, a 1.9 - ton decrease from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee fell 37 yuan to 130 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 3 yuan to 244 yuan [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan, reporting 3738 yuan. The East - China spot price fell 34 yuan, reporting 3633 yuan. The basis was - 16 yuan (+ 6), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 1). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, up 2%. The synthetic - gas - based operating rate was 75.5%, up 3.3%, and the ethylene - based operating rate was 70%, up 1.3%. In terms of plants, Zheng Dakai restarted, and a line of Yankuang was under maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 11.8 tons, and the East - China departure on December 18 was 0.86 tons. The port inventory was 84.4 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 834 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 964 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 29 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 570 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak non - farm employment and inflation data in the US have boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 940 - 1002 yuan/gram. For silver, due to the significant increase in the early stage during the Hassert nomination process, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and pay attention to the risk of short - term sharp fluctuations. The reference operating range of the main Shanghai silver contract is 13918 - 16000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes Information - Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 980.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.42% to 15228.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4363.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 65.45 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.12%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.44 [2] - The inflation data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday was significantly lower than expected, which boosted the market's pricing of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy and supported the prices of gold and silver. The year - on - year CPI in the US in November was 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%, and the year - on - year core CPI was 2.6%, significantly lower than the expected 3%. The housing rent, which accounts for the highest proportion, showed a significant decline. The year - on - year CPI of out - of - home accommodation was - 4.1%, significantly lower than - 0.1% in September, which also caused the year - on - year CPI of housing to fall from 3.5% in September to 3%. The housing rent CPI accounts for 35% of the overall CPI, which is an important reason for the significant decline in this inflation data [2] - The US labor market showed weakness. The number of newly added non - farm employment in the US in November was 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the newly added non - farm employment data in October recorded a decline of 105,000 [3] - With the weakening of both employment and inflation data in the US, the current CME interest rate observer shows that the market's probability expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 26.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by March is 46.8% [3] Key Data Summary of Gold and Silver - For gold, the closing price of the active COMEX contract decreased by 0.17% to 4363.90 US dollars/ounce; the trading volume increased by 11.14% to 228,600 lots; the position volume decreased by 3.34% to 418,500 lots; the inventory increased by 0.22% to 1122 tons. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.41% to 4342.10 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) contract increased by 0.08% to 980.50 yuan/gram; the trading volume decreased by 9.26% to 318,400 lots; the position volume increased by 1.15% to 349,800 lots; the inventory decreased by 0.01% to 91.72 tons; the settled funds increased by 1.23% to 54.873 billion yuan. The closing price of AuT + D increased by 0.18% to 974.68 yuan/gram; the trading volume decreased by 14.24% to 42.67 tons; the position volume increased by 0.92% to 219.11 tons [5] - For silver, the closing price of the active COMEX contract decreased by 1.49% to 65.45 US dollars/ounce; the position volume increased by 4.35% to 150,800 lots; the inventory increased by 0.05% to 14095 tons. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 4.71% to 65.95 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE contract increased by 0.06% to 15,521.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume decreased by 4.76% to 2,736,200 lots; the position volume decreased by 1.94% to 783,300 lots; the inventory increased by 0.03% to 912.16 tons; the settled funds decreased by 1.88% to 32.824 billion yuan. The closing price of AgT + D increased by 0.05% to 15,463.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume decreased by 31.79% to 900.98 tons; the position volume decreased by 3.71% to 3622.722 tons [5] Price Difference Information - For gold, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was - 5.30 yuan/gram or - 23.40 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.02 yuan/gram or 4.50 US dollars/ounce [50] - For silver, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 817.72 yuan/kilogram or 3.62 US dollars/ounce [50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment is not pessimistic due to the Fed's restart of Treasury purchases and the positive tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the surplus pressure of refined copper is not significant [3]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to maintain range - bound fluctuations due to strong cost support and supply disruptions, as well as demand fluctuations and delivery pressure [6][27]. - Lead prices are expected to operate weakly in a wide range in the short term due to factors such as flat lead ore inventory, changing lead production rates, and low social inventory [9]. - Zinc prices may give back some gains after the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment, although there are factors such as zinc ore de - stocking and production cuts by smelting enterprises [11]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices have an uncertain short - term outlook with de - stocking narrowing at the end of the peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term due to factors such as expected decline in ore prices, over - capacity in the smelting end, and approaching cost lines [21]. - Stainless steel prices are in a tight - balance pattern and lack a clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: US inflation data in November was lower than expected, the dollar index was stable, and copper prices fluctuated. LME copper inventories decreased, domestic electrolytic copper social and bonded area inventories increased slightly, and the spot market had weak trading. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 91,800 - 93,800 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M contract in the range of 11,600 - 11,850 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum (Cast Aluminum Alloy) - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy main contract rose, with changes in positions, trading volume, and warehouse receipts. The price difference between contracts narrowed, and domestic and imported ADC12 prices increased. Domestic mainstream market aluminum alloy ingot inventories decreased, while factory inventories increased [5][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to maintain range - bound fluctuations [6][27]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also increased. There were data on lead ingot prices, refined - scrap price differences, inventories, and basis [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price increased. There were data on zinc ingot prices, basis, inventories, and import and export conditions [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices may give back some gains after the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was affected by high prices, resulting in weak trading [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin in the range of 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market had stable premium and discount. Nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices weakened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term Shanghai nickel price is expected to operate in the range of 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract in the range of 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate increased, while the futures contract price decreased. Production increased slightly, and social inventories decreased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lithium carbonate prices have an uncertain short - term outlook, and it is recommended to wait and see. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 103,000 - 109,600 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index was flat, with changes in positions. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import profit and loss was negative. Futures warehouse receipts decreased, and ore prices were stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 expected to operate in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose, with changes in positions. Spot prices in different markets had different trends, and raw material prices also changed. Futures inventories decreased, and social inventories decreased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices are in a tight - balance pattern and lack a clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see [24].

农产品早报 2025-12-19 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 隔夜 CBOT 大豆收跌，市场继续交易美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期。周四国内豆粕现货小幅回落 10 元/ 吨，豆粕成交较好、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 204.45 万吨，上周压榨大豆 203.75 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.13 环比上升 0.64 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，同比仍处高位。 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也开始增加，处于正常偏低水平，重 点关注其 1 到 3 月天气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植 利润丰厚 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current terminal demand in the steel industry remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is relatively prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. Affected by the export license management, the prices of finished steel products will be under short-term pressure, but they are expected to gradually digest the policy impact later. The willingness to store steel for the winter this year is not strong, and large-scale restocking may not occur. The macro level is still in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2] - The supply of iron ore is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the inventory in ports is rising while the inventory of imported ore in steel mills is at a five-year low. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5] - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while the supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the direction of the black sector and the cost increase caused by the increase of manganese ore price and electricity price [11] - The production of industrial silicon is restricted by the high operating rate in the northwest region, and the demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is weakening. The short-term supply and demand of industrial silicon are marginally weakening. Attention should be paid to the subsequent emotional fluctuations and the new supply-side disturbances in the northwest region [14] - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the production ramp-up and start-up expectations of some bases in the northwest. The overall demand in the downstream is weak, and the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to ease. The market is in a marginal weak balance, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [16] - The supply of glass is decreasing, but the upward space is limited due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue to show a narrow-range shock trend in the short term [19] - The supply pressure of soda ash is gradually emerging with the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the expected release of new production capacity in Alxa. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3125 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton (1.329%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 57065 tons, a net increase of 8 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.575943 million lots, a net decrease of 28786 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: This week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, which is in line with the off-season characteristics. The overall terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [2] Hot-Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3277 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.986%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 103404 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.189556 million lots, a net decrease of 10392 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The output of hot-rolled coils decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The inventory pressure is relatively prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, up 1.24% (+9.50), and the position increased by 29159 lots to 518200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 908100 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, and the basis was 66.04 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 7.83% [4] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase. The demand for iron ore decreased, with the daily average pig iron output continuing to decline and the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei increasing. The port inventory continued to rise, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills reached a five-year low. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 18, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) rose 0.38% to close at 5780 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, and the converted price was 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.83% to close at 5592 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 8 yuan/ton over the futures price [9] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while the supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the direction of the black sector and the cost increase caused by the increase of manganese ore price and electricity price [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8645 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+175). The weighted contract position decreased by 15525 lots to 409568 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non-oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 555 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton after conversion [13] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production of industrial silicon is restricted by the high operating rate in the northwest region, and the demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is weakening. The short-term supply and demand of industrial silicon are marginally weakening. Attention should be paid to the subsequent emotional fluctuations and the new supply-side disturbances in the northwest region [14] Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 59300 yuan/ton, down 3.73% (-2295). The weighted contract position decreased by 24941 lots to 250565 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type compact material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was -6900 yuan/ton [15] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the production ramp-up and start-up expectations of some bases in the northwest. The overall demand in the downstream is weak, and the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to ease. The market is in a marginal weak balance, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [16] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of glass closed at 1062 yuan/ton, up 2.31% (+24). The quoted price of large glass sheets in North China was 1030 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331000 boxes (+0.57%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long positions reduced 61105 lots, and the top 20 short positions reduced 69256 lots [18] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply decreased with the cold repair of some production lines last week, which supported the market production and sales to some extent. However, the upward space was limited due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The demand recovery was weak, and the market was expected to continue to show a narrow-range shock trend in the short term [19] Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1193 yuan/ton, up 1.97% (+23). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1147 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+0.57%), including 771700 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 18800 tons, and 727600 tons of light soda ash inventory, up 23800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long positions reduced 27207 lots, and the top 20 short positions reduced 30690 lots [20] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply pressure of soda ash was gradually emerging with the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the expected release of new production capacity in Alxa. The downstream demand had not improved significantly, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level oscillating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in this market condition [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial long - position seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for index options, it is suitable to construct a partial long - position seller strategy, a call option bull spread combination strategy, and an arbitrage strategy between the synthetic long futures of options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,876.37, up 6.09 points or 0.16%, with a trading volume of 704.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 61.9 billion yuan, and a PE of 16.22 [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,053.97, down 170.54 points or 1.29%, with a trading volume of 950.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 93.7 billion yuan, and a PE of 30.25 [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,998.52, up 6.84 points or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 82.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.8 billion yuan, and a PE of 11.72 [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,552.79, down 27.08 points or 0.59%, with a trading volume of 382.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 70.4 billion yuan, and a PE of 13.96 [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,100.84, down 37.00 points or 0.52%, with a trading volume of 275.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.9 billion yuan, and a PE of 32.29 [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,272.40, down 16.34 points or 0.22%, with a trading volume of 349.0 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.3 billion yuan, and a PE of 44.37 [4]. 3.2 Option - related Market Conditions 3.2.1 Option - based ETF Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volume changes of various option - based ETFs such as SSE 50 ETF, SSE 300 ETF, etc. are provided, with different trends in price and trading volume [5]. 3.2.2 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume and position PCR data of different option varieties are presented, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market [6]. 3.2.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties are given, which are determined from the strike prices of the maximum positions of call and put options [8][10]. 3.2.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. [11][12]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board, with different option varieties in each sector [13]. - For each sector, option strategies and recommendations are provided, including directional strategies and volatility strategies, and most of them involve constructing short - volatility strategies to obtain time - value returns [14][15][16]. 3.4 Option Chart Analysis - Charts of various option varieties such as SSE 50 ETF options, SSE 300 ETF options, etc. are provided, including price trend charts, volume and position charts, PCR charts, and implied volatility charts, which can be used for in - depth analysis of option market conditions [17][37][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. Import arrivals will remain high, and port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It's expected to trade in a low - level range, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve needs and higher compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, it's expected to build a bottom in a range. Buying on dips is recommended [10]. - For natural rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term trading and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Although there is a short - term emotional rebound, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it's advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year, as styrene non - integrated profits are relatively low and there is room for upward valuation repair [20]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the oversupply situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase after January, and the processing fee is under pressure. With limited upside for the processing fee, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [30]. - For ethylene glycol, although the domestic supply situation has improved slightly due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to potential further increases in maintenance [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.10 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 429.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 2.01%, to 2439.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 46.00 yuan/ton, or 1.59%, to 2931.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 424.42 million barrels, while SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 412.17 million barrels. Gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene inventories all increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 18 yuan/ton to 2174 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was - 198 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. The port inventory is decreasing, but future pressure remains. The supply is high, and the fundamentals are under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 38 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 62 yuan/ton to 1708 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short - term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, it's expected to build a bottom in a range. Buying on dips is recommended [10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low, and the buying demand for winter storage was a bullish factor. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 million tons as of December 14, 2025, up 2.9 million tons, or 2.6% [12][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term trading and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 28 yuan to 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4430 (+30) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 278 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.4%, down 0.5%. Factory inventory was 34.4 million tons (+1.8), and social inventory was 105.9 million tons (unchanged) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Although there is a short - term emotional rebound, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5290 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5381 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6385 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.11%, down 0.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.21 million tons to 13.47 million tons [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year, as styrene non - integrated profits are relatively low and there is room for upward valuation repair [20]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6476 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, down 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 million tons, up 1.72 million tons, and the trader inventory was 3.56 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6279 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, down 1.66%. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 million tons, up 0.07 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.83 million tons, down 0.9 million tons, and the port inventory was 6.75 million tons, down 0.07 million tons [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the oversupply situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. Polyester PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 90 yuan to 6862 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 6 dollars to 840 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 79.3%, up 0.7%. The PTA load was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 13.9 million tons, down 0.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 million tons, up 4.8 million tons month - on - month [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 64 yuan to 4748 yuan. The East China spot price rose 45 yuan to 4650 yuan. The PTA load was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 215 million tons as of December 12, down 1.9 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to increase after January, and the processing fee is under pressure. With limited upside for the processing fee, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 9 yuan to 3767 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 3667 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 72%, up 2%. The port inventory was 84.4 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic supply situation has improved slightly due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to potential further increases in maintenance [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolios with sellers as the main part, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied gas, and methanol [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The report presents the volume PCR and open interest PCR of different option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: It shows the pressure points, support points, and their offsets of various option varieties from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6]. - **Implied Volatility**: The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of different option varieties [7]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations - **Crude Oil Options**: The fundamental situation is that the demand of US refineries has stabilized and rebounded, shale oil production has changed little, and OPEC's short - term supply is flat. The market has shown a weak trend recently. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options; volatility strategies recommend selling a call + put option combination with a short bias; spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing a long collar strategy [8]. - **Liquefied Gas Options**: The warehouse receipt volume has increased slightly this week, supply has increased, and demand has weakened. The market shows a bearish trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options; volatility strategies recommend selling a call + put option combination with a short bias; spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing a long collar strategy [10]. - **Methanol Options**: Inventory has decreased. The market has shown a weak trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options; volatility strategies recommend selling a call + put option combination with a short bias; spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing a long collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: Polyester load has decreased, and port inventory has increased. The market has shown a weak trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options; volatility strategies recommend a short - volatility strategy; spot long - hedging strategies involve holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **PVC Options**: Factory and overall inventories have increased. The market has shown a weak trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options; spot long - hedging strategies involve holding a spot long position + buying an at - the - money put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Rubber Options**: Tire factory operating rates and inventory conditions are presented. The market has shown a weak consolidation trend. Volatility strategies recommend selling a call + put option combination with a neutral bias [12]. - **PTA Options**: PTA load is low. The market has shown a trend of rebound and then decline. Volatility strategies recommend selling a call + put option combination with a neutral bias [12]. - **Caustic Soda Options**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has increased. The market has shown a weak bearish trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread combination; spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing a long collar strategy [13]. - **Soda Ash Options**: Factory inventory has decreased. The market has shown a low - level weak oscillation trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread combination; volatility strategies recommend a short - volatility combination; spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing a long collar strategy [13]. - **Urea Options**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory has increased. The market has shown a short - term weak trend. Volatility strategies recommend selling a call + put option combination with a neutral bias; spot long - hedging strategies involve holding a spot long position + buying an at - the - money put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [14].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oilseed and oil - related agricultural products are in a weak and volatile state, while oils, by - products, and soft commodities like sugar show a slight oscillation. Cotton is in a strong consolidation phase, and grains such as corn and starch are in a narrow and bullish consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural futures contracts including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,054 with a decrease of 6 and a decline rate of 0.15%, and its trading volume is 3.32 million lots with a change of 2.16 million lots, and open interest is 5.73 million lots with a change of - 0.28 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators (volume PCR and open - interest PCR) of different option varieties are provided. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the potential turning points of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 1.76 with a change of 1.02, and the open - interest PCR is 1.03 with a change of 0.04 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200 and the support level is 4000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.195%, and the weighted implied volatility is 11.08% with a change of 0.05% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Oilseed and Oil Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: Based on fundamental and market analysis, it is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: A neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are suggested [9]. - **Palm Oil**: A bearish spread strategy for directional trading, a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [9]. - **Peanut**: A long collar strategy for spot hedging is proposed [10]. - **By - product Options**: - **Pig**: A bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [10]. - **Egg**: A bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility is suggested [11]. - **Apple**: A bullish call + put option selling strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [11]. - **Jujube**: A wide - straddle option selling strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are proposed [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options**: - **Sugar**: A bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [12]. - **Cotton**: A neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot are suggested [13]. - **Grain Options**: - **Corn**: A neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility is recommended [13].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report - Core Viewpoints: Build different option strategies for non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals based on their market trends and option factors [2] Group 2: Market Overview Futures Market - The non - ferrous metals showed a mostly upward trend, the black metals maintained high - volatility trends, and the precious metals rebounded [2]. - Specific futures prices, trading volumes, and position changes of various metals are provided in Table 1 [3]. Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR: The PCR values of different metal options are presented in Table 2, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the underlying asset markets [4]. - Pressure and Support Levels: The pressure and support levels of different metal options are shown in Table 3, determined by the strike prices of the maximum call and put option positions [5]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility data of different metal options are provided in Table 4, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations for Different Metals Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Fundamental Analysis: The inventories of the three major exchanges increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month [7]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai copper showed a bullish trend with support below [7]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was above the historical average, and the position PCR indicated strong support below [7]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bull spread strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. Aluminum - Fundamental Analysis: The aluminum ingot inventory decreased, while the bonded area inventory increased [9]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai aluminum showed a bullish trend with rapid declines [9]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was above the historical average, and the position PCR indicated strong pressure above [9]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. Zinc - Fundamental Analysis: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures and overseas inventory data are provided [9]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai zinc showed an upward - biased trend with pressure above [9]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was above the historical average, and the position PCR indicated a short - term strong trend [9]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. Nickel - Fundamental Analysis: The global nickel apparent inventory increased, and the demand for intermediate products weakened [10]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai nickel showed a weak - biased volatile trend with pressure above [10]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was above the average, and the position PCR indicated a weak - biased trend [10]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a short - biased delta and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. Tin - Fundamental Analysis: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar was slow, and the raw material supply for smelting enterprises was tight [10]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai tin showed a short - term high - volatility bullish trend with support below [10]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was at a high historical level, and the position PCR indicated strong support below [10]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Analysis: The weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [11]. - Market Analysis: The price of lithium carbonate showed a bullish trend with large fluctuations and strong support below [11]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility increased rapidly and remained at a high level, and the position PCR indicated increasing bullish strength [11]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. Precious Metals Silver - Fundamental Analysis: The de - stocking of COMEX silver slowed down, while the LBMA silver inventory increased [12]. - Market Analysis: The price of silver showed a bullish trend with rebounds after declines [12]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was at a high historical level, and the position PCR indicated strong support below [12]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [12]. Black Metals Rebar - Fundamental Analysis: The total inventory of rebar decreased, with a decline in both social and factory inventories [13]. - Market Analysis: The price of rebar showed a weak - biased volatile trend with pressure above [13]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was below the historical average, and the position PCR indicated strong short - side pressure above [13]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a short - biased delta and a spot covered - call strategy [13]. Iron Ore - Fundamental Analysis: The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased, and the daily discharge volume decreased slightly [13]. - Market Analysis: The price of iron ore showed a weak - biased volatile trend with support below and pressure above [13]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was below the historical average, and the position PCR indicated short - term support below [13]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. Manganese Silicon - Fundamental Analysis: The weekly output of manganese silicon was stable, and the apparent inventory was at a high level [14]. - Market Analysis: The price of manganese silicon showed a weak - biased trend with a rebound [14]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was at a low historical level, and the position PCR indicated a weak market under short - side pressure [14]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility strategy [14]. Industrial Silicon - Fundamental Analysis: The inventory of industrial silicon increased, including factory, market, and registered warehouse receipt inventories [14]. - Market Analysis: The price of industrial silicon showed a weak - biased volatile trend with pressure above [14]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was around the average, and the position PCR indicated a weak - biased volatile trend [14]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [14]. Glass - Fundamental Analysis: The inventory of float glass decreased, including the national and Shahe area inventories [15]. - Market Analysis: The price of glass showed a weak - biased trend with a rebound after over - selling [15]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was at a high historical level, and the position PCR indicated a weak market [15]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [15].